further adventures in Jed York being unsuited for his position
Let’s head straight to a revamped chart. Now fixed to time, as opposed to play, to give a better feel for the flow of the game.
What jumped out at me right away was how this game was played between 25% and 75% virtually the whole way. In fact, the first play run with either team have a 75% or greater win likelihood was Denard’s completion to The Threat. I combed through my database and Saturday’s game was the longest a game had stayed within that range in the last ten years. No other game had gone 59.5 minutes with neither team being closer to winning than being even. Of course as soon as Michigan’s odds dipped on Toussaint’s ill-advised reception, the offense comes through with a huge completion to set up a 65% chance of hitting the game winning field goal.
Biggest swing plays
Michigan would have been looking at about 70% win odds, but the 26 yards and a new set of downs on Sparty’s fake punt brought Michigan St back to square at 50%.
Andrew Maxwell had a third down and four on Michigan’s side of the field when he threw the ball straight to Jordan Kovacs. Prior to the snap Michigan was at its current low for the game around 39% but the pick and return quickly pushed them to about 53%. The number would have been about 5% higher if part of the return hadn’t been called back.
Michigan was down 1 with the ball at their own 25 with about 5 minutes left. Denard found some room and went 44 yards for Michigan’s longest play of the day. That jumped the game from 44% to 67% in Michigan’s favor.
With less than a minute to go Denard couldn’t find anyone open downfield so he chose to dump it off to Fitzgerald Toussaint a yard behind the line of scrimmage. The ball was low and Toussaint instinctively went down to catch it, which he unfortunately did. The loss of a down, yardage and time pushed the win percent down from 32% to 15%, the first time all game either side crossed the 75% mark.
Michigan would bounce right back and Denard’s strike to The Threat would reverse that 15% in no time. With only a field goal attempt left, the offense handed the game to Gibbons with a kick an average kicker would make 65% of the time.
And of course he did. +35% to Gibbons and all the brunette girls.
[Hit THE JUMP for an updated season projection, Dumb Punt of the Week, Nebraska prediction, and more.]
I did a quick search to see if this had been discussed, couldn't find anything.
Anyway, with technology today, isn't there a way to prove this? Or is everybody in the media afraid to challenge Kiffin? And the fact that he does it when they are winning by so much just further proves he's a douche.
The current Michigan Today has a slideshow article featuring covers from various football programs. The 1925 OSU program is copied below, but they're all worth a peek if you like this sort of thing. Article is here: http://michigantoday.umich.edu/2012/10/slideshow/index.html#1 .
I've heard a couple people bust out the comparison of Jake Ryan to Clay Matthews, and there was a discussion in the defensive UFR about future NFLers on our roster. On the surface, the comparison seems fair: Matthews is a hybrid linebacker/pass rusher, who gets into the backfield a lot. You could say the same about Ryan. And of course, the flow is strong in both of them. Obviously, their skill levels are far apart right now, but do we have the next Clay Matthews? I did some research to see.
|Height||Weight||40 yard dash|
|Matthews||6'3"||255 (he weighed in at 240 at the combine)||4.67|
|Ryan||6'3"||242||HS profile says 4.6 (probably at least 4 FAKES out of 5)|
I was actually surprised by this. For some reason, I thought Ryan was undersized. But it looks like Ryan has the build. If he plays through his senior year, he'll probably graduate around 250-260 lb.
|Matthews (Source: USC archives)|
|2005 (RS FR)||12||8 (4 solo)||0||0||0||0||0|
|2006 (RS SO)||13||15 (9 solo)||1.5 (-9)||1||0||0||0|
|2007 (RS JR)||13||17 (15 solo)||3 (-23)||0||2||0||0|
|2008 (RS SR)||13||56 (28 solo)||9 (-59)||4.5||2||2||0|
Interestingly enough, Matthews was an unheralded walk-on at USC. He really only played special teams in his first 3 seasons (though he excelled at that, winning USC's Co-Special Teams Played of the Year in both 2006 and 2007), and wasn't awarded a scholarship until 2006. And it wasn't until his senior season when he started to get consistent time at linebacker. He played alongside Brian Cushing and Ray Mauluga; talk about a scary defense. (Source, Wikipedia.)
|Ryan (Source: MGoBlue)|
|2011 (RS FR)||13||37 (20 solo)||11 (-53)||3||1||2||0|
|2012 (RS SO)||7||52 (34)||8.5 (-45)||3.5||2||0||0|
Jake Ryan has just been nuts this year. He's already surpassed almost all of his numbers from last year... in half the number of games played.
Ryan may turn out to be nothing like Clay Matthews. That's certainly a difficult level of performance to attain. And with the contributions he's already made to the program, I would be just fine with that. But he's got the frame, he's been putting together some nasty numbers... and he's got the flow!
What do you think?
1. Jarvis Jones - Georgia
4. Manti Teo - Notre Dame
11. Johnathan Hankins - Ohio State
15. TAYLOR LEWAN
22. Kawann Short - Purdue
23. Tyler Eifert - Notre Dame
If we lose Lewan this year, we will have an extremely inexperienced line next year. He sure does have a tough decision to make.