Can the guy on the left beat the guy on the right?
In two weeks, we'll know with a high degree of certainty if Brady Hoke has ANY chance of keeping his job. A win against Michigan State keeps him in contention, a loss virtually guarantees what already seems inevitable: Hoke is replaced before bowl season. Of course, a win at Michigan State appears...how do I say this nicely...like a stretch of the imagination?
So let's get back to the CC candidates.
Dan Mullen, HC Miss. State
Track Record: B. Yes, the guy has turned Mississippi State into the #1 team in the country as of now. Still, he's 19-24 in SEC play, has never finished higher than 4th in the SEC West, and it has taken him six seasons to get here.
Michigan Ties: C+. No Michigan ties, but born in PA (and went to Ursinus), and has coached at Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Bowling Green, though he's been out of the midwest since 2004.
Recruiting: B. Mullen's weak spot may be recruiting, where he has only had middling classes. Yes, Miss. State caveats apply, but Mike Stoops has done better at UK in a shorter time.
Chances/Loyalty: B-. Florida seems to be the wild card here; if they don't offer him the job and we do, I think Mullen is Blue. That said, I think Florida will offer him the job.
Demeanor: B+. Just 42 years young, Mullen has matured quite a bit on in Starkville, and has grown from a guy that seemed all tactics into what appears to be a well-rounded head coach.
Three Phases: A-. Can make any QB look good, and is now demonstrating that he's not just a “finesse” coach—Miss. State's defense is tough and physical, and the offense will smack you, too.
Roster Fit: B. Yes, Mullen is spready, but it's lots of the inside zone stuff we run now, and it's a more physical roster than many HUNH guys throw out there. He would probably need a new QB for his system.
OVERALL GPA: 3.00 (B). I'd certainly want DC Geoff Collins to come with Mullen. If he does, I think this could be an OUTSTANDING (not using “Tremendous” until further notice) hire.
Mark Stoops, HC Kentucky
Track Record: B-. Good: UK's only loss this season is in overtime to Florida. Bad: Only in 2nd year as HC, and only wins in year one were vs. Miami (NTM) and Alabama State. Pretty strong track record as DC.
Michigan Ties: B-. Born in Youngstown, OH. Played at Iowa and was a GA there from '88-'91. Otherwise, has been south (Kentucky thinks they're in the south) other than a three-year stop in Wyoming. Is recruiting midwest now.
Recruiting: B+. Not enough data yet, but damn, pulled in the #20 2014 class after going 2-10 at KENTUCKY.
Chances/Loyalty: B. Seems very gettable. UK is hardly an elite program. Would he leave after just two seasons?
Demeanor: B+. 47 years old, smart guy who seems capable in press conferences.
Three Phases: B+. Defensive coach running a very Auburn-like offense at UK. Specializes in DB coaching, which is vital in today's spread world. PLEASE bring OC/QB coach Neal Brown.
Roster Fit: B-. Another spread coach, but more tempo than Mullen. That said, uses lots of backs and H's to create running lanes for QB and RB.
OVERALL GPA: 3.00 (B). Great bloodlines and positive early returns at UK, this would be another great hire, IMO. Would need to make sure he brought most of his staff.
Still to come: Scott Frost, Teryl Austin, Greg Schiano, Gary Patterson, Bob Stitt, Chad Morris, Mark Hudspeth, Kirby Smart, Tom Herman, Matt Wells, Mike Gundy, Ruffin McNeil.
I thought this would be a BTN game at noon so not many people outside the fanbases would see it.
Michigan is 103-58-3 all-time when on ABC. 9-8 when playing MSU on ABC.
Jake Ryan was named B1G Defensive Player of the Week. The last Michigan player to win DPoW was also Jake Ryan after Michigan's 45-0 shutout of Illinois in 2012.
Michigan has only had four B1G DPoWs in the last 6 years.
Matt Wile was named B1G Special Teams Player of the Week. The last Wolverine to do that was in November 2013 after Michigan's miracle fire drill FG at Northwestern.
First and foremost, I will apologize for the tardiness of this - during some downtime in Toronto yesterday before we left, I had a chance to compile the data but not write the summary for this past weekend.
So, let's get to this -
You will be pleased to know that this was a relatively civil affair in comparison to the rest of the season, and for many obvious reasons if you watched the game, not the least of which is the fact that we won. From a data standpoint actually, there is not much to report here - the thread grew to only 1,522 posts and contained on 109 instances of tracked words. By far, this is the most quiet the blog has been even when compared to last year, and of course, there was a liveblog or two and also it was a home game, both of which factor into the size of these threads.
I say "only" there with regard to thread size because...
...it is on the smaller end of the threads this season, but as you can see, the volume of the discontent in the three games prior makes this past Saturday - win aside - a pleasant experience comparatively speaking.
How quiet though? We only gave 38 "fucks" and 25 "shits" and a smattering of "damns" and "asses". Almost no mention of the offensive line or indeed Shane Morris, the latter perhaps because he was not in the game nor cleared to play, I believe.
It leads us to efficiency, which as you might guess, was rather low. Actually, it was the lowest this season by far:
We're getting to a point now, as we approach two seasons worth of data, that we can say with some confidence that the primary drivers of the lower scores are growing apathy and winning. As you can see above, this season has evidence of a slide into apathy that was ended with the "would have, could have, should have" rage of the Rutgers game, but then the victory over Penn State cause the efficiency to plummet. Similar trends evolved last year.
Rather than the normalized data for the major contributors this time, as it essentially looks like the Appalachian State game in that they are all below the mean contributions, let me show you the now well-formed "fuck-fire" relationship this season.
I don't know that there is a better graphical depiction of the mood of the board through the fall than this really. It would be interesting to chart the CC threads by week and overlay them here. I think the spike actually did in fact occur between Minnesota and Rutgers.
How did we feel overall? We were rather pleased with the result, a welcome break indeed, as indicated by the mood chart:
In a season where happiness has been lacking, we can see that we sometimes can have a nice thing. We get a temporary respite with the bye week, of course, and then onto East Lansing, where this data could get interesting potentially as I am sure we'll be fired up for that.
This was put together by user PeterJames, who did not have enough points to post. This is well done and informative. Reply to this PJ so we can bump you >100. Good to see U-M is still producing this much NFL talent.
Jason Avant (2005) | Carolina Panthers, WR (T 37-37 vs. Cincinnati)
- 5 receptions for 47 yards. Long of 17 yards.
- In his first year with the Panthers, Avant has made 17 catches for 179 yards.
Tom Brady (1999) | New England Patriots, Starting QB (W 37-22 vs. Buffalo)
- 27/37 for 361 yards, with 4 TDs and no turnovers. Brady was sacked twice.
- For the year, Brady has thrown for almost 1,500 yards, with a 10 TDs and 2 interceptions.
Stevie Brown (2009) | New York Giants, Backup FS (L 27-0 vs. Philadelphia)
- Played, did not record a statistic.
- Brown tore his ACL and missed the 2013 season, and has started 3 games this year. He has amassed 12 tackles in 5 games.
Will Cambell (2012) | Buffalo Bills, Practice G (L 22-37 vs. New England)
- Recently signed to the Bills practice squad.
Kenny Demens (2012) | Arizona Cardinals, Backup ILB (W 30-20 vs. Washington)
- 1 tackle.
- In 5 games played, Demens has recorded 5 tackles and 1 forced fumble.
Michael Cox (2011) | New York Giants, Backup RB, KR (L 0-27 vs. Philadelphia)
- Returned kicks for 24 and 28 yards.
- Has not recorded an offensive statistic, and this was his first game
Larry Foote (2001) | Arizona Cardinals, Starting MLB (W 30-20 vs. Washington)
- 4 tackles.
- Has started all 5 games in his first year with Arizona, recording 31 tackles and 1 INT so far.
Jonathan Goodwin (2001) | New Orleans Saints, Starting C (W 37-31 vs. Tampa Bay)
- Did not record a statistic. QB was not sacked this game.
- In his first year with New Orleans. Has started every game since 11/24/2008.
Cameron Gordon (2013) | New England Patriots, LB (W 37-22 vs. Buffalo)
- Did not play.
- Has not recorded a statistic this year.
Brandon Graham (2009) | Philadelphia Eagles, Backup LB (W 27-0 vs. New York Giants)
- 4 tackles and 1 forced fumble.
- Has not started yet this year, but has 13 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 forced fumbles in 5 games.
Leon Hall (2006) | Cincinnati Bengals, CB (T 37-37 vs. Carolina)
- 4 tackles and 1 pass breakup.
- Has 17 tackles and 1 interception in 5 starts.
David Harris (2006) | New York Jets, Starting ILB (L 17-31 vs. Denver)
- 11 tackles.
- In 6 starts, Harris has recorded 50 tackles and 1 forced fumble.
Junior Hemingway (2011) | Kansas City Chiefs, Backup WR (Bye Week)
- In 5 games, Hemingway has 8 receptions for 89 yards.
Chad Henne (2007) | Jacksonville Jaguars. Backup QB (L 14-16 vs. Tennessee)
- Did not play.
- Started 3 games to begin the year. 42/78 for 492 with 3 TDs and 1 interception and 1 fumble. Has apparently lost starting job to rookie Blake Bortles.
Tim Jamison (2008) | Houston Texans, Backup DE (L 28-33 vs. Indianapolis)
- 1 tackle.
- Has started 1 of 6 games this year. Recorded 9 tackles and half of a sack.
Jordan Kovacs (2013) | Philadelphia Eagles, SS (W 27-0 vs. New York Giants)
- Recently signed to Eagles practice squad.
- Was cut from Miami during fall camp. Played in 9 games last year for the Dolphins.
Taylor Lewan (2013) | Tennessee Titans, Starting T (W 16-14 vs. Jacksonville)
- First start of his career, starting due to injury. QB sacked 6 times this game.
Jake Long (2007) | St. Louis Rams, Starting T (MNF vs. San Francisco)
- Playing on Monday night.
- Has been a starter since he entered the league 7 years ago.
Mario Manningham (2007) | New York Giants, Backup WR (L 0-27 vs. Philadelphia)
- Did not play.
- Has played only 6 games in the past two years due to injury.
Mike Martin (2011) | Tennessee Titans, Backup DE (W 16-14 vs. Jacksonville)
- 1 tackle.
- Started 1 of 4 games played. 6 tackles this year.
David Molk (2011) | Philadelphia Eagles, Starting C (W 27-0 vs. New York Giants)
- Has started past 3 games, due to starter injury. QB sacked 1 times this game.
Ryan Mundy (2006) | Chicago Bears, Starting SS (W 27-13 vs. Atlanta)
- 1 tackle.
- Has recorded 29 tackles and 1 pick-six interception in his first 6 games with the bears.
Patrick Omameh (2012) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Starting G (L 17-48 vs. Baltimore)
- Has started all 6 games this year. QB sacked 5 times this game.
Denard Robinson (2012) | Jacksonvile Jaguars, RB (L 14-16 vs. Tennessee)
- Best game of his NFL career. Rushed 5 times for 22 yards, and caught 3 passes for 14 yards.
- Has started 2 games this year, has rushed for 94 yards on 28 carries, and has 11 receptions for 37 yards.
Steve Schilling (2010) | Seattle Seahawks, Backup G (L 23-30 vs. Dallas)
- Started his first game since 2011. QB was sacked 1 time.
- In his first year with Seattle.
Michael Schofield (2013) | Denver Broncos, Backup T (W 31-17 vs. New York Jets)
- Has yet to start a game.
LaMarr Woodley (2006) | Oakland Raiders, Starting DE (L 28-31 vs. San Diego)
- 1 tackle.
- 4 tackles in 5 games.
Fitzgerald Toussaint (2013) | Baltimore Ravens, Practice RB (W 48-17 vs. Tampa Bay)
- Signed to practice squad.
Charles Woodson (1997) | Oakland Raiders, Starting FS (L 28-31 vs. San Diego)
- 7 tackles.
- Has 32 tackles and 1 interception in 5 games.
Borrowing from Ron Utah's "Where we stand" post, I decided to make a large table for all potential CC's. Unfortunately it is difficult to post said table in full format in a blog so I have cut it into snippets to show below.
I graded each coach on a number of metrics from 1 to 5, each line item equal weighted (which probably is not the way to do it). These are of course my opinion and yours will differ. So feel free to downvote this post but if you do so please don't do it because I graded Coach XYZ a "3" for demeanor when you think it should be "4"...or 2".
Aside from current candidates I also threw in what Urban Meyer would have looked likst post Florida, Brian Kelly post Cincy, and Charlie Strong (my fav candidate from last year) post Louisville. I skipped some of the board's candidates like Nuss or McElwain because I just don't see those guys as serious contenders at this time.
Some of these categories are obvious but I will quickly discuss a few of them more in depth:
- Midwest Footprint / HS Coach Ties - rather than focus on "UM ties" which is a very narrow group of candidates I went broader and touched on a category where a coach has immediate access and familiarity with Midwest HS coaches which is important for recruiting. OBVIOUSLY if Jim Harbaugh walks into your building as a HS coach you are happy but that is different from established relationships. Only a few candidates truly have these.
- Cultural Fit - to offset guys like the Harbaughs and Mullens who have "Midwest backgrounds" but not necessarily a lot of exposure to HS coaches I made this a catch all bucket.
- Demeanor - as I commented on Ron's piece, I think Jim Harbaugh has the PERFECT college demeanor (mirror of Nick Saban) but others would disagree due to it being a political job to some degree and people who are type As might rub people the wrong way. I find winning solves all that but I know others disagree so I put my estimate for demeanor that keeping that in mind. A few candidates like Herman and Austin I truly don't know their demeanor so I just gave them a neutral grade.
- Chance of accepting job and chance of staying long term - that's obviously a guess on my part without knowing the minds of all these men. After the last 2 searches I am not in the camp than almost anyone on Earth will leave their job for Michigan, which some people believe to be true. There is also the factor of Dave Brandon - if he is around almost all these scores go to either 0 or 1. I tried to be realistic - I can hope all day John Harbaugh is coming here but he is a top 5-7 NFL coach so I am not putting a "4" there with information we have now. As for sticking around - a lot of these guys are in their 40s to early 50s so could use UM as a stepping stone to the NFL or to a top SEC job down the road.
- Receny bias - basically is a score for how in the news a guy is of late, or how hot his stock is. Mullen 11 months ago would have scored a 1, now he is a 5.
- Layer of dirt (higher score was a negative in this case and deducted from total)- this is a catch all for any controversy ... Harbaugh saying "bad" things about academics, Miles being around during sneaky stuff at OK State, Graham leaving 2 jobs under circumstances some are upset with, Urban being Urban.
- 44 - Jim Harbaugh
- 40 - Dan Mullen
- 41 - Todd Graham
- 42 - Gary Patterson
- 47 - Dave Doeren
- 41 - Pat Narduzzi
- 43 - Urban Meyer
- 45 - Charlie Strong
Now to be clear IMO the top row of this table should be the most important - "Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success". So perhaps in a different scoring system I should have weighed this double anything else because frankly that is the #1 requirement in my mind at least. Two guys who scored well (Doeren, Narduzzi) fail here since one is too new and the other has never been a HC. Doeren is interesting because if he ever has decent success at NC State he is nearly the perfect candidate in all other ways. But obviously he is lacking the most important thing.
So excluding those 2 guys I had Charlie Strong as the best scoring candidate because of coordinator success and his Midwest coach ties due to his 4 years at Louisville; both things Harbaugh lacked. One can obviously argue that proven NCAA Big 5 HC success supersedes any coordinator success (which I agree 100% with) but candidates who have both (like Strong) only become more impressive. I knew Urbz would score well but I was surprised that Kelly did not score higher - but a prickly personality and lack of coordinator experience hit him.
Again in my world Jim Harbaugh is the perfect candidate but when I take emotion out of it and just go with scoring I found the results interesting. And if I had doubled the weight of proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success Harbaugh would have come out on top even with some of the "negatives" some can see in his personality, and his lack of Midwest HS coaching relationships.
|Jim Harbaugh||John Harbaugh||Les Miles||Dan Mullen|
|Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success||5||0||5||3|
|Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success||2||0||4||0|
|Proven non NCAA HC success||5||5||0||0|
|Proven Coordinator success||0||3||0||5|
|Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties||2||2||2||1|
|Ability to Develop Players||5||4||4||4|
|Chances of Accepting Job||2||2||3||1|
|Chances of Sticking Long Term||2||3||5||3|
|Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate"||5||4||3||5|
|Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes||2||0||3||0|
|Todd Graham||Gary Patterson||Mark Stoops||Greg Schiano|
|Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success||4||3||1||0|
|Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success||5||5||0||4|
|Proven non NCAA HC success||0||0||0||2|
|Proven Coordinator success||3||4||4||2|
|Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties||2||1||4||1|
|Ability to Develop Players||5||5||3||4|
|Chances of Accepting Job||2||1||3||2|
|Chances of Sticking Long Term||3||5||4||2|
|Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate"||4||4||3||1|
|Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes||3||1||0||0|
|Tom Herman||Dave Doeren||Craig Bohl||Chad Morris|
|Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success||0||1||1||0|
|Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success||0||5||5||0|
|Proven non NCAA HC success||0||0||0||0|
|Proven Coordinator success||4||5||0||5|
|Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties||3||5||1||1|
|Ability to Develop Players||4||4||5||4|
|Chances of Accepting Job||2||4||3||1|
|Chances of Sticking Long Term||4||4||4||2|
|Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate"||4||2||2||4|
|Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes||0||0||0||0|
|Pat Narduzzi||Teryl Austin||Bert Bielema||Kirby Smart|
|Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success||0||0||4||0|
|Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success||0||0||0||0|
|Proven non NCAA HC success||0||0||0||0|
|Proven Coordinator success||5||3||0||5|
|Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties||5||1||5||1|
|Ability to Develop Players||5||4||4||5|
|Chances of Accepting Job||2||1||2||1|
|Chances of Sticking Long Term||3||2||3||2|
|Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate"||5||4||3||5|
|Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes||1||0||3||0|
|Urban Meyer||Brian Kelly||Charlie Strong|
|Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success||5||0||0|
|Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success||5||5||4|
|Proven non NCAA HC success||0||0||0|
|Proven Coordinator success||0||0||5|
|Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties||3||5||4|
|Ability to Develop Players||5||5||5|
|Chances of Accepting Job||5||5||2|
|Chances of Sticking Long Term||2||2||3|
|Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate"||5||5||5|
|Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes||4||2||0|