i like 'em both
Bye(ish) week special - the usual utterly one-sided IU 2013 highlights.
There has been a lot of discussion of advanced stats lately since there is not much to talk about in actual game this week, so here are rankings of UM and some key opponents / conference foes updated via Football Outsiders.
I am listing both S&P+ which people who watch this closer than me say is better mid season and FEI which is probably a better measure but more useful late in the year. (FEI is very cruel to Big 10 offenses right now for whatever reason) Whatever the case you have 2 figures so you can average them and get a pretty good idea where any team falls in the landscape.
Disclosure - yes stats are for losers but when that's all you have....
Just a quick glance shows UM to be very Maryland like - a decent but not super defense paired with a ho hum offense. Minnesota is very similar which makes the results that much more depressing of that game. OSU has rapidly improved and brings a very potent offense with a solid if not spectacular defense. MSU passes with high marks in everything but FEI offense. Notre Dame is legit. Utah has a surpringly bad offense but some good defense.
Based on this UM fans should have high hopes to beat Indiana and reasonable hope to beat Northwestern (in a pillow fight similar to PSU v UM) and Maryland. Hope should be abandoned vs MSU/OSU.
S&P first/FEI second
- Defense: 23/44
- Offense: 61/74
- Defense: 8/23
- Offense: 13/45
- Defense: 19/28
- Offense: 5/20
- Defense: 24/19
- Offense: 25/34
- Defense: 16/9
- Offense: 59/94
- Defense: 31/18
- Offense: 20/39
- Defense: 62/75
- Offense: 33/38
- Defense: 35/34
- Offense: 62/53
- Defense: 88/119
- Offense: 47/42
- Defense: 26/41
- Offense: 28/64
- Defense: 36/8
- Offense: 92/83
- Defense: 33/31
- Offense: 51/68
- Defense: 40/60
- Offense: 95/46
- Defense: 41/7
- Offense: 96/69
- Defense: 55/33
- Offense: 37/14
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.
According to an MLive article HERE, Michigan has a new walk-on kicker for next year...
Saline High School kicker/punter Ryan Tice announced via Twitter that he'll play at Michigan next season as a preferred walk-on. Tice says he plans to enroll at Michigan in January as an early-enrollee.
Welcome, Ryan! Here's hoping we have an improved kicking game next year.
I've lived in the Lansing area all my life. Some of my best friends are huge MSU fans. Most of my family members are MSU fans. For these reasons, and many more, I have grown up to despise Sparty more than our rival down south.
I completely understand that OSU is our biggest rival, but what I don't understand is the nonchallant attitude the football program has towards MSU. During the week we get polite comments and compliments for their players and coaching staff. Meanwhile the word out of EL is how much they hate us and want to beat us.
When Saturday comes along the result on the field is reminscent of the attitude during the week. MSU plays like a team hellbent on kicking our asses. We play like every other game: not good.
Why is it so hard for us to bring even a fraction of the hatred we have for OSU to a game against MSU? For a program that prides itself on having important rivalries we seem to forget all but one. All I want is to see some fire and passion on that sideline on Saturday.
EDIT: A lot of people are pointing to history and past dominance. While true, I think that is a terrible reason. Right now they are kicking our asses. Last year we showed up against OSU with a great gameplan. We were actually prepared. I want to see that for more than just one game a year.
EDIT 2: After writing that I am seeing that my question is actually "why doesn't Michigan ever appear to be prepared for games against not-OSU?" Which is why Hoke will be out of a job at the end of this season.
Well, user Jake Blues referenced Brian's 2007 MSU postgame in another thread, and I went and read through the whole thing - here are some bits and pieces that would have made me laugh manaically at Sparty's inadequacies back then but now make me go :'(
(In response to Hoyer's quote "Let's put it this way, if anybody hadn't taken this personal up until this point, it's personal now," Hoyer said. "It just shows what kind of class he has. "Sooner or later, the little brother, you want to put us that way, you get pushed around enough, the little brother fights back and kicks the other brother's ass.")
Oh, now it's personal? You mean it's unlike all those other games when a host of kids who never even got looked at by Michigan (save three or four per year) played their instate rival and then immediately collapsed afterward? Oh shit. We are in serious trouble now. It's personal. I am liquidating my assets and moving to Tahiti, as Michigan will never beat Michigan State again.
Well, if not for the Denard/Dileo/Gibbons miracle... Oy. Anyone know what plane tickets to Tahiti are going for these days?
I know, I know. You're probably wondering "what radical new direction will this knight errant take the hallowed Spartan program?" Well, let me tell you: every year Michigan State will jump out to a fast start by beating a bunch of awful nonconference teams. When they play at Notre Dame, they will win. Everyone will get all hyped up for the Michigan game, which they will lose. On the off chance they do not lose, they will arrange to lose to Indiana or Northwestern or some such team to restore the cosmic balance. After the Michigan game they will collapse wholesale. Sometimes they will go to a bowl in Detroit. Other times they will stay home and cry softly into their BEET MICHIGAN cardigans. They will never, ever go to the Rose Bowl, and every year MGoBlog will start its Michigan State preview the same way. Yes, friends, times are a-changin' in East Lansing.
Now, please don't take this the wrong way - I love Brian and the blog and was basically laughing right alongside everyone at the time... but now I am ready to cast out my demons and admit we were guilty of hubris. May the football gods accept my repentance and have at least a tiny smidgen of mercy on Michigan Football this Saturday.
Anyway, Go Blue!
EDIT: Added link
I just had the chance to digest Brian's description in today's UV of Sam Webb's post saying he thinks Brandon will survive long enough to possibly keep Coach Hoke. It reminds me that I would like next season to not feel like someone is pulling out my teeth with a pair of pliers.
What can those of us who want Brandon fired do that we haven't done already? People have mentioned creating "Support the Team/Fire Brandon" tee shirts. That sounds okay, though I'm personally not in a good position to make that happen for people who live in AA. It wouldn't be the most powerful thing, I assume, but I like the idea of those shirts showing up on TV in shots of the crowd during games.
Does anyone have any other ideas? Or has the message been sent, and are we now at the mercy of President Schlissel?