i find this extremely interesting
basketball
OT: Purdue's Barlow suspended for the rest of the season
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Purdue's Kelsey Barlow has been suspended for the remainder of the season. Edit your brackets accordingly.
http://www.purdueexponent.org/sports/article_10123b98-4f51-11e0-9bfa-001...
EDIT: Sources are telling me that Barlow's suspension is from hitting Ryne Smith (other teammate now out with a concussion) in the head with a ball rack because he called him out for an alcohol-related issue. What a mess.
OT- St Patty's Day vs Game Day
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So the tournament starting on St Patty's day is about as good as it gets. Both are days that are meant to be speant at a bar drinking all day. I only just realized one hicup in my plans.
I planned on getting into my best green St Patty's gear when I realized I also want to support the team (and not that team). Just a heads up to all the folks like me who only think about 5 minutes in advance. Before heading to the bar tomorrow, remember to include some maize and blue amongst all the to St Patty's green to support the team.
EDIT: Others pointed out I am a dumbass and can't read a calendar. Game day on FRIDAY, not to be confused with THURSDAY. Sorry, I was a student during the Ellerbe years and am still relativally new to this whole "having my team in the tournament" thing and jumped the gun.
Historical Performance of NCAA seeds
Filed under:
[Ed-M: Bumped anyway!]
I was going to put all this into a diary and make it totally clever and informative and interesting before the tournament really kicks off, but I'm not going to have the time to do that so, in lieu of that, some unanalyzed charts for your pleasure.
I got all this information by compiling data from running searches at this database: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/ncaa/mens-basketball/search/.
First I recorded the winning percentage of all 16 seeds in each round of the tournament:
|
|
Win % in Rounds |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Seed |
First |
Second |
Sweet 16 |
Elite Eight |
Final Four |
Championship |
|
1 |
100% |
88% |
82% |
60% |
56% |
64% |
|
2 |
96% |
67% |
72% |
48% |
48% |
36% |
|
3 |
85% |
60% |
49% |
50% |
62% |
38% |
|
4 |
79% |
54% |
32% |
64% |
22% |
50% |
|
5 |
66% |
55% |
18% |
86% |
50% |
0% |
|
6 |
68% |
52% |
35% |
23% |
67% |
50% |
|
7 |
60% |
29% |
33% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
46% |
19% |
67% |
50% |
33% |
100% |
|
9 |
54% |
7% |
25% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
40% |
45% |
37% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
32% |
36% |
33% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
34% |
51% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
21% |
18% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
15% |
13% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Then using this I calculated the percentage of chance a given seed had to get to each level of the tournament:
|
|
% Chance to make round |
|
|
|
||
|
Seed |
Second |
Sweet 16 |
Elite Eight |
Final Four |
Championship |
To win it all |
|
1 |
100.00% |
88.00% |
72.16% |
43.30% |
24.25% |
15.52% |
|
2 |
96.00% |
64.32% |
46.31% |
22.23% |
10.67% |
3.84% |
|
3 |
85.00% |
51.00% |
24.99% |
12.50% |
7.75% |
2.94% |
|
4 |
79.00% |
42.66% |
13.65% |
8.74% |
1.92% |
0.96% |
|
5 |
66.00% |
36.30% |
6.53% |
5.62% |
2.81% |
0.00% |
|
6 |
68.00% |
35.36% |
12.38% |
2.85% |
1.91% |
0.95% |
|
7 |
60.00% |
17.40% |
5.74% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
8 |
46.00% |
8.74% |
5.86% |
2.93% |
0.97% |
0.97% |
|
9 |
54.00% |
3.78% |
0.95% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
10 |
40.00% |
18.00% |
6.66% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
11 |
32.00% |
11.52% |
3.80% |
1.90% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
12 |
34.00% |
17.34% |
1.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
13 |
21.00% |
3.78% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
14 |
15.00% |
1.95% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
15 |
4.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
16 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Using this I calculated the expected wins for a team at each seed:
|
Seed |
Total wins Exp |
|
1 |
3.43 |
|
2 |
2.43 |
|
3 |
1.84 |
|
4 |
1.47 |
|
5 |
1.17 |
|
6 |
1.21 |
|
7 |
0.83 |
|
8 |
0.65 |
|
9 |
0.59 |
|
10 |
0.65 |
|
11 |
0.49 |
|
12 |
0.52 |
|
13 |
0.25 |
|
14 |
0.17 |
|
15 |
0.04 |
|
16 |
0 |
And using this I calculated the expected wins that each conference should get in this year's tournament:
|
|
Big East |
|
Big Ten |
|
PAC-10 |
|
Big 12 |
|
SEC |
|
ACC |
|
|
Seed |
# |
Ex.W |
# |
Ex.W |
# |
Ex.W |
# |
Ex.W |
# |
Ex.W |
# |
ExW. |
|
1 |
1 |
3.43 |
1 |
3.43 |
|
0 |
1 |
3.43 |
|
0 |
1 |
3.43 |
|
2 |
1 |
2.43 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
2.43 |
1 |
2.43 |
|
3 |
2 |
3.68 |
1 |
1.84 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
4 |
1 |
1.47 |
1 |
1.47 |
|
0 |
1 |
1.47 |
1 |
1.47 |
|
0 |
|
5 |
1 |
1.17 |
|
0 |
1 |
1.17 |
1 |
1.17 |
1 |
1.17 |
|
0 |
|
6 |
3 |
3.63 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
7 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
1.66 |
1 |
0.83 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
8 |
|
0 |
1 |
0.65 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
9 |
1 |
0.59 |
1 |
0.59 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0.59 |
|
0 |
|
10 |
|
0 |
2 |
1.3 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0.65 |
1 |
0.65 |
|
11 |
1 |
0.49 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0.49 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
12 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0.52 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0.52 |
|
13 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
14 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
15 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
16 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
|
11 |
16.89 |
7 |
9.28 |
4 |
3.35 |
5 |
7.39 |
5 |
6.31 |
4 |
7.03 |
So, the B1G's 7 teams should total 9.28 wins based on seeding to meet historical expectations. Since Michigan is going to win six, I don't see this as being a problem at all.
The hopefully Never Forgotten Four - rivals piece on Voskuil, Pelinka, Talley, Riley
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Love reading about these guys and how each in their own right have had very successful careers both on and off the court since their days at Michigan. Should the Fab Five ever reunite for anything as simple as an ovation from a Crisler crowd, I hope these guys and the rest of those teams are there with them:
The Curse of the 8th seed
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I know that there was a thread a few days ago lamenting the challenge of the #8 seed, but this article in the New York Times is a wonderfully comprehensive look at why the 8 or 9 seed is a big disadvantage for teams seeking to get past the second round. For those of you who love stats and charts (the Diary Mafia of bits and bytes) this is gold.
Hardaway Jr. getting some love from Yahoo
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Yes that would be Mr. Hardaway Jr. receiving some props from Yahoo. Can't wait for the weekend.
EDIT: MY BAD...sorry.......
