I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
[Ed-Ace: Bumped on a slow day. I'm working on the initial Big Ten recruiting rankings for the class of 2013, which should be up later today.]
I have never played basketball at any level, outside of a few pickup games. I'm not all that good at statistics, so I apologize for any and all statistical errors. However, as a former actuary, I am good at finding trends and patterns in data. Last week, Maize N Brew had a good article on whether Michigan lives and dies by the three. The conclusion was that the offensive efficiency was not really dependent on hitting 3 pointers. When looking at it the data presented, it looked as though the more three point shots UM takes the worse the offensive efficiency. I decided to take a closer look.
3 point Attempts vs Offensive Effiency.
I went throught the game by game box scores and looked at the 3-point attempts and plotted it against the offensive efficiency. [I removed Ferris St. since they aren't a D-I opponent.] What I found was slightly disappointing. The correlation was -0.15 (the negative means the higher the number of 3-point attempts the lower the offensive efficiency) and the R-squared was a low 0.02. However, when I took a closer look, I noticed that two of our lower offensive efficiency numbers came against Ohio and MSU, which is no surprise considering that they are the #1 and #2 best defensive efficiency teams in the country.
So to adjust for that I looked at the amount the offensive efficiency exceeded the opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency from Kenpom. The result was more in line with what I expected. The correlation drops to -0.49 and the R-squared rises to 0.24.
Looking at the results, when U-M shoots 20 3-pointers or less, Michigan is 10-0 (4 of them RPI Top 50 wins, 5 more Top 100 wins). Shooting more than 25, Michigan is 6-3, but those wins came against Arkansas Pine Bluff, Oakland, 2 overtime wins against Northwestern, Bradley and Iowa St (the only quality win in regulation). The 3 losses were the 3 worst performances of the season, @Iowa, @Arkansas, and the loss to Purdue.
So is this unique to Michigan? I looked at Northwestern, a team I think is most similar to Michigan's style of play (in the B1G). They spread the floor, shoot a ton of 3s and look for back door cuts. And I found they have a positive correlation between 3 attempts and offensive efficiency. A correlation of +0.17 (after adjusting for defensive effiency). The R-squared is a pathetic 0.03, but I think it is important to note that the correlation is the opposite sign.
I also looked at Wisconsin. Ohio relies on Sullinger and MSU relies on the offensive rebound so much that I didn't think that they would be good comparisons to Michigan. For them it doesn't seem to matter if they shoot a lot of threes or not. A correlation of -0.1 and an R-squared of 0.01.
One of the 4 factors is Free Throw Rate. I think this may be the most important of the 4 for Michigan. Michigan is 10-0 vs RPI Top 100 competition when their FT Rate is greater than 25%. Michigan is 2-7 vs RPI Top 100 when the FT Rate is at or below 25%. How does this relate to 3-pointers? My theory is that Michigan is at their best when driving the basket and drawing fouls and not settling for jump shots of the 3-point variety (I'm looking at you THJ). It might also explain why Northwestern gives us fits. Their zone forces us to take a bunch of 3 point shots (like 38 of them).
So as we go into the post season:
- Cackle with knowing glee if Michigan is driving the basket
- Worry if we draw a zone team that forces us to shoot a lot of 3 pointers.
If anyone has a team they would like me to look at, let me know. I'm going to try to figure out how to add graphs so you can see the dramatic downward slope of Michigan's efficiency against 3 point attempts.
In case anyone wants to discuss the early games on the first day.
Right now Illinois is up on Iowa 14-13. Sloppy game.
As mentioned two days ago, I was recently defeated by the stomach virus
and ordered by my doctor to cease all drawing of cartoon Michigan families
until I could stand the smell of cooked food. As such, I opted to run
Tuesday's feature Blockhams strip today, and that's what brings us to this...
(Click the image to view full size)
There's something about a big victory that brings the charm out of a Blockham man... and with three kids named Thomas, Chalmers and Desmond, matriarch Donna has seen it before and knows it all too well. Call it the heat of the moment, the rush of unbridled happiness, or something far less eloquent... but for a Michigan Man like Tom, there's something about a big win that calls for, well, another big win.
THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Tuesday here at MGoBlog, and at least
every Thursday on its official home page. Also, don't forget to check out our newest
feature, Friday Roughs, a spontaneous low-end comic based on trending
Michigan events, available on Twitter and Facebook every Friday.
Darius Morris has been assigned to the LA D-Fenders in the developmental league.
In before "I told you so".
Kentucky celebrates their 2012 NCAA Championship
Calipari reacts to using efficiency margins to determine the NCAA Championship, saying
"I couldn't be happier. This is a player's market. They were charging me by the game! That's $500,000 I can put towards next year's class!"
Brian Cook answers his detractors who cite things like the pageantry, the school pride, and the Cinderella stories that result from actually playing the NCAA tournament, saying, "You can grub grub grub about will to win and finding ways to win and winning is for winners; I don't buy that stuff."
St Louis coach Rick Majerus reflects on his team's Sweet 16 banner.
Majerus was quick to share the credit with the guys who got him here, "I just knew that last bucket over Illinois-Springfield would pay off in the end. Know that I never would have made it here without NCSOS Pyth and AdjT." *a single tear traces a delicate line down his ample cheek* "I love you guys."
When asked for comment on the Lobos rise to power, Brian Cook was quick to point out, "Did you know that David Brandon invented cancer? Five minutes from the cure...One more year...we were right!"
Disarmed, Majerus could only comment, "That is the dumbest smart guy I have ever met."
New Mexico celebrates their less than surprising victory over Duke.
A confident Steve Alford cites key rebounds against UMKC for the victory, "I knew back in Dec. 2011, when we pulled down that last board against the Roos that it would put our adjD over the top." Alford quickly appointed a name tag on his striking red coat and scurried off to his second job managing the local Kmart.
edit: thanks seth, I love you too
just about to be the end of the first half on the BTN. Thought if your still up and wanna watch a classic here you go.