this may be of some local interest
Truly torn as a fan tonight. I'm hurting for selfish fan based reasons as are many of you, fellow comrades of maize and blue. On the other hand I'm truly happy for both Nik and GR3 for all that they have accomplished and the awesome opportunities that await them. We make MILLIONAIRES in Ann Arbor. Nik Stauskas and GR3 meant a whole lot to Michigan and their departure will be felt extensively. Both represented Michigan on and off the court with class and dignity. Both brought excitement and "Swag" to the program and there are countless highlights and Gifs to carry on their respective memories in the Michigan uniform.
The pressing matter is where do we go from here. We are a championship level program that happens to have suffered 4 early NBA departures in 2 years. That is extreme. We don't exactly rack up All-American talent every year in the recruiting ranks so once again, Beilein and his staff with have to work wonders. Let's take a peek at what John the Wizard will likely be working with.
D. Walton (so) - S. Albreicht (jr)
C. Levert (Jr.) - 2014 late addition (will elaborate later)
Z. Irvin (so.) - K. Chatman (fr)
M. Donnal (fr) - M. Beifeldt (Jr.) / DJ. Wilson (fr).....possible shirt.
M. McGary (jr) - R. Doyle (Fr)
The obvious caveat is big #4.....I'm expressing optimism here and leaning him as not only a member of the 2014/2015 Wolverines.....but as the Enforcer and heart and soul. McGary will move mountains as a Wolverine next year. I think he knows this.
Caris will obviously be the primary scoring option and he will make a run at CPOY hands down. I genuinely see a fiery leader in Zak Irvin and if the Ohio....Sparty and Nebrasketball road games are proper indicators from last year....D. Walton is going to be one hell of a leader and floor general. (Spike isn't far behind)
The intrigue of this prospective roster is M. Donnal. I'm buying the hype. I've seen videos of his developing athleticism and hear nothing but promise and certification of his ability to absolutely own the "Stretch 4" role. If this all holds.....look out. Donnal will be a bigger body and allow us to play big without sacrificing shooting. Imagine two 6ft10's on the floor at the same time.....now get used to it and add the fact that both will be highly skilled with range. Yes please.
The BenchMob will be led by Spike, Kam and Max. Spike will only add to his legend and possibly be the best backup point in the B1G. Max will be an improved physical presence with knowledge of the system and the stones to get his hands dirty for Michigan. You need guys like Max. Now enter Kam Chatman. This kid is a Top 30 talent being coached by a Top 5 coaching staff. Kam will be Zak Irvin at minimum and likely a more rounded offensive player. I fully expect 6-9ppg from Kam next season and he will etch out a significant role in year 1. Ricky Doyle is rumored to be a legitimate 6ft10 and 235lbs. He will have a summer overseas with Michigan to get a jump and Mitch McGary to learn from. Doyle will play meaningful minutes and surprise some of you.
DJ. Wilson is a complete wild card. He is very thin.....around 200lbs at 6 ft 9. If he can make some gains in his first 4 months in Ann Arbor he could be a 2013 Caris Levert on steroids. Excellent skill level and uber athletic. Might be the best athletic shot blocker in years to find his way to AA. After analyzing this kid's film I really think he might have NBA lottery written all over him. Kids like DJ Wilson are what makes John Beilein a top 5 coach. He is going to be a diamond and he ain't all that rough. The fact that Beilein was on this kid early and snatched him up is pure genius. Just bear witness to what this kid becomes. He will show flashes of this in 2014/2015 if given the opportunity.
THE UNKNOWN........late 2014 additions. Yes please!
Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman 6 ft 4 Guard
Averaged 24 ppg this past season. He is a decent shooter and solid defender. He has a loose handle but has above average bounce and athleticism. He will be 20 in September as a freshman and will be physically ready to compete.
Tavarius Shine 6 ft 6 185lbs
Not much to add here yet. Ideal height and has scoring ability.
Ryan Taylor 6 ft 6 Wing
Scored 20ppg last year. Another player who relished the defensive end of the floor. Limited offensive analysis on him as of yet but he is an Indiana kid that knows all of our Indiana kids. Ohio is his biggest offer thus far and he has Michigan at the top of his list. If we offer....he will be a Wolverine.
Aubrey Dawkins 6 ft 4 180 lbs
Dynamic and Explosive athlete. I would venture to say that Aubrey is close to GR3 level athleticism. He is the son of Johnny Dawkins. You know what that means given our trend of NBA dads lol. Aubrey is the most "sure thing" out of these prospects and he will be good for a few posters next year. If he develops his shooting, he could be a major coup. Aubrey is going to be a priority and he is visiting Michigan in a week or so. He would be a HUGE commitment.
Class of 2015
Both Jalen Brunson and Jalen Coleman are looking more and more like the cornerstones of the 2015 recruiting class. Matt Mcquaid of Texas is trending also. Michigan will need to grab a B1G in the 2015 class. Here is a way to early depth chart....with Levert and McGary continuing the underclassmen trend of NBA departures.
D. Walton (jr) - Spike (Sr.)/ J. Brunson (fr)
Z. Irvin (jr) - J. Brunson (fr)/ J. Coleman (fr)
K. Chatman (so) - 2014 Late addition (hopefully Dawkins) or Mcquaid
D. Wilson (Fr/so) - 2015 Big
M. Donnal (So) - R. Doyle (so)
This team could be better than any we have seen thus far. Irvin/Chatman would be a NIGHTMARE. Walton will the B1G's best pg by then. Wilson will be blossoming by now. Donnal will be Frank Kaminsky 2.0 with more hops and we will have a BanGeR in Doyle to go with a solid 2015 front court recruit. This team will feature highly touted guards in Jalen Brunson and Jalen Coleman which will be quite the bench luxury. Spike if he is still here will be the best backup PG maybe inthe nation. This is a monster team right here.
Sorry for the lengthy post fellas. Congratulations Nik and GR3! You've both left this program better than you found it and in great hands. Our future is bright as **** guys. 2015 will be another great year of Michigan Basketball and a B1G banner is totally in play!
Per MSU release, Branden Dawson announced his decision to remain in school for his senior season.
I'm not sure any coach in the country gets more 5 star recruits to stay in school for all four years than Tom Izzo. And I'm not sure if that is a compliment or an insult.
Some of these are obvious, such as vs Florida and the 2nd half explosion vs MSU for Nik, and the game winner vs Purdue for Glenn. I was wondering if anybody had some off-the-radar moments that stick out for them. I have a couple.
For Nik, some of my favorite moments come from his freshman year non-conference schedule. At this point he was still kind of an unknown entity, all we really knew about him was what we had seen from various Youtube clips, such as him making 3 after 3 or tearing up Baylor while still in high school. He was a tall, gangly white kid who mostly stood in the left corner and never ever missed threes. He was shooting something ridiculous like 60% from 3, and it just added to the whole WOW HOW TALENTED IS THIS TEAM feeling that we all had early that season. Every home game, his left corner would be right in front of the other team's bench in the 1st half, and he'd inevitably make one or two and turn around and stare the other team's bench down before running back on defense. That was pretty fun.
For Glenn, one off the radar moment I'll remember was his freshman year when we played Penn State at home. He had like 5 or 6 dunks that game, and I think at least 3 or 4 of them were alley-oops. We knew he was pretty athletic before that game, but after that we knew we had something special. There also was a sequence in the game at Minnesota that season when Nik had a pretty big dunk, and then Glenn had his 360 back to back. That was cool.
One way off the radar moment I have for the both of them was at the very end of the Florida game in the Elite 8. All of the starters had been pulled, and it was obvious we had won. Matt Vogrich pulled up for a fast break three and cashed it. They showed a shot of the bench and both Nik and Glenn were going absolutely insane for Matt. Both guys were always in it for the team and the program, never for themselves. Both guys sacrificed a lot for Michigan (especially Glenn), and I'll always be appreciative of that. I can't wait to watch both guys play in the NBA and represent the university well.
Any other moments?
Via UmichBBALL twitter...
This has hit the Twitter wire, and Tennessee's AD has called a press conference this afternoon. Cuonzo Martin, who admittedly wasn't well liked by the Volunteer fan base until a Sweet 16 run, is leaving to take the Cal head coaching position.
It would not surprise me if LaVall Jordan gets a look, as Tennessee really isn't a top notch basketball program. But, as this season showed, they can be a perennial winner in the SEC and make a little noise come tournament time.
This is way off-topic, especially on a day when we're probably saying goodbye to 40% of our starting basketball lineup, but it may be interesting to people like me who are both sports fans and spend way too much time trying to quantify human behavior.
The 'hot hand" or 'hot streak' in basketball and baseball have been topics of debate forever, but for 30 years the academic consensus was that they were fallacy, that believers in such things did not understand the data. Well, new research from Stanford and Harvard - by business school faculty, interestingly - turns this assumption on its head:
(The two studies cited in this article are a bit more difficult and require at least a basic understanding of statistics to follow).
In a nutshell, prior studies suffered from endogenous variable bias; e.g. a model designed to predict the probability of a player with a 'hot hand' making his next shot suffers from the relationship between a variable in the model, current or recent shooting percentage, and a variable not in the model, or lumped in the error: defensive reaction. This is much less of a problem in baseball.