Our squad is very young and we did sign a huge class last year. I believe that Wilson and Chatman were top 100 players and MAAR, Dawkins and Doyle were more of the 3 star sleeper types. Last year's class looks like they will be solid and appears to mesh well with our system to far. My concern is, how long can we continue to recruit at a lower level than our rivals and stay competitive with them? I'm of the opinion that we need to kick it up a notch in recruiting and I have a growing concern when looking at us strike out on nearly all the blue-chips last year and this year as well. We seem to be slipping on 2016 guys like Thornton and consistently get beaten out by the big dogs in college basketball for the big fish. Michigan is a top flight school with amazing facilities and a top flight staff. Michigan has sent 5 to the NBA in the past 2 years alone with 4 being 1st rounders. Michigan has rich championship basketball tradition. So why does it seem to be such a struggle in terms of basketball recruiting? What is this staff missing on the trails?
Michigan State has Austin Grandstaff who is a 4 star...Kyle Ahrens...who we recruited and a McDonald's All American in Deyonta comings in 2015. They are also fairly young and will lose only Trice and Dawson this year. Ohio State has 4 four stars and a 5 Star wing comitted in their 2015 class alone. They will likely suffer a lot of attrition with Russell leaving early and seniors departing but still will have Tate and Bates-Diop plus this huge class. Our 2015 class is barren at the moment unless you're including the D. Robinson transfer.
There is no real excuse or reason why we do not have at least one blue chip recruit for the 2015 cycle. You cannot completely whiff on a year of recruiting as we have essentially done thus far. Basketball fortune can swing very quickly and in order to sustain the high level of play that we have enjoyed, you have to crush recruiting every year. There are no fliers to miss a year of recruits. I'm wondering if there is an issue with our staff's ability to get the blue chips. Is everyone else dirty? I think there is a legitimate concern here and it one that I think we should discuss. I don't buy the narrative that Michigan just can't recruit with the big dogs. We aren't recruiting hard enough or well enough to do it. Other smallet schools still pull blue chips annually. We should be boxing other programs out and eating first in recruiting. We shouldn't be taking a backseat to these other programs. How do we fix this?
Michigan WBB is at Crisler tonight facing Nol 5 Maryland (8-0 in B1G play). I'm not at the game and I don't have a subscription to BTN Plus. It would be a big boost to the program if we could pull off the upset here.
Maryland 21, Michigan 18 with 11:25 to go before half.
Full game of the win over Nebraska. Best defensive effort of the season. Next up MSU. Enjoy GO BLUE
HALFWAY THROUGH THE CONFERENCE SCHEDULE
I thought this might be a good time to review the Four Factors with regards to Michigan basketball now that we’re nine games into the conference schedule. For this diary, we’ll just focus on these nine games – there will likely be a grand analysis of the entire season talking OOC / conference, win / loss, home / away, etc…at the end of the regular season.
First, however, some averages of those factors in the conference schedule to date:
Effective FG% - 46.84%
Off. Rebound % - 26.98%
Free Throw Rate – 26.97%
Turnover Rate – 14.65%
A few other stats to perhaps consider as well – the average A/T ratio for Michigan in these nine games is 1.35 and their average offensive PPP is 1.01 (average number of possessions per game for Michigan is 59, incidentally). That PPP, well not quite as high as in past years for conference play – at least for the Wolverines – does include six performances north of 1.00, games in which we were 5-1 (the sole loss in that subset being Wisconsin, where our PPP was 1.13).
Effective FG% - 46.94%
Off. Rebound % - 30.06%
Free Throw Rate – 32.26%
Turnover Rate – 16.01%
Also for our opponents, they achieve an average A/T ratio of 0.943 and an average offensive PPP of 0.99 (which, of course, is our defensive PPP). Buried in that average PPP are 5 sub-1.00 performances for our opponents, which is part good defense and part playing mostly the lower reaches of the Big Ten conference up to this point.
Looking at the four factors themselves, however, you see a team that is not exactly outshooting anyone, extending a lot of possessions, getting to the line often…and then it makes sense that Michigan’s average margin of victory / loss when it comes to points is actually about 5 points in wins and 13 points in losses (I know, average of three numbers….grumble grumble). The grand average regardless of margin is 0.22 points.
So, here’s what the four factors look like game-by-game (we are, of course, in blue):
Offensive Rebound %:
Free Throw Rate:
For kicks, I looked at Michigan’s four factors split win to loss (so again, average of three numbers….I know):
eFG% in conference wins – 49.25% (1.06 offensive PPP)
eFG% in conference losses – 42.03% (0.92 offernesive PPP)
OREB% in conference wins – 27.68%
OREB% in conference losses – 25.59%
FTR in conference wins – 27.80%
FTR in conference losses – 25.59%
TOV% in conference wins – 14.09%
TOV% in conference losses – 15.77%
Aside from eFG%, there doesn’t seem to be much variance between wins and losses, although take a surface analysis for what it is worth there. The end of season breakdown could very well be more interesting. Right now, the profile of the average conference game has Michigan shooting 20-52 or so including 7-21 from beyond the arc, as well as only 13 FT attempts per game and only 8 offensive rebounds.
Alright, alright....so this is my first time posting a new thread, so take it easy on me here. Just saw that Joe Lunardi made an update to his Bracketology selections this morning and Michigan is making some noise! Joe now has Michigan listed as the 6th team left out. I've read a few folks saying that finishing 5-4 in their final 9 games (and a win in the BTT) wil likely lock us for a bid. I think a lot will depend on just who those 5 wins come againist but I just can't see us getting left out with a conference record of 11-7. I also checked Bracket Matrix this morning and we are currently on two 'experts' brackets and on the fringe on many.
Episode covers the heart breaking loss to Wisconsin and the win at Rutgers. The full college gameday at Crisler is also posted with the Austin Hatch fearure and HARBAUGH. Enjoy BEAT STATE!!