in town for free camps
The brackets as they relate to Michigan are unlikely to change between now and when we play, so now’s a good time to look at precisely where we stand in Bracketology.
1. Bracket Matrix: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/. We’re a 2 seed, but 7 on the S-Curve, meaning that to the Bracket Matrix we could get passed if Duke or Virginia look particularly impressive in the ACC tournament, or could fall back if we have an unimpressive performance. FSU is the 5th out on Bracket Matrix; they could help us in several ways if they make a deep run in the ACC tournament. Often when looking at the Bracket Matrix I try to spot trends, such as whether brackets that have updated most recently take an easily identifiably different approach than those updated less recently. However, if we limited the brackets in Bracket Matrix to only those that updated in the last two days, our spot would not change.
2. Lundradri: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology. This is about the time that Lnuardi becomes more accurate because he starts to receive tidbits from committee members and former committee members. We’re a 2 seed in his bracket, but number 5 on the S-curve: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty. That’s more favorable than Bracket Matrix.
3. Jerry Palm: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology. 2 seed, no S-curve provided. His bracket would be an amazing draw for Michigan.
I previously have examined only those three indicators, but as we get close to Selection Sunday, let’s take a look at a few more sources.
4. Crashing the Dance: http://crashingthedance.com/seed.php. 6 on the S-Curve, but just a few decimals ahead of Cuse. Essentially the same position as on the Bracket Matrix, but CtD isn’t worried about UVa passing us from the ACC, just Duke. Ctd also has Wisconsin behind, not in front, of us.
5. Yahoo!: http://sports.yahoo.com/featured/ncaab/bigboard/. 5 on his S-curve.
6. USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/09/usa-today-sports-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/6228743/. USA Today has done very well in the Bracket Matrix rankings: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html. We’re a 2 seed there as well, but no S-curve is provided.
7. Our Best Buddy Drew: http://drewsbracketology.blogspot.com/. Drew, a noted Michigan/B1G/self hater now has us as a 3 seed, but number 12 on his S-curve. Clever move by Drew, because the Bracket Matrix doesn't look at an S-curve in its rankings, just seed. So in the event that we get a 2 seed, he'd be off by only one seed, which is isn't too bad for Bracket Matrix rankingspurposes. Still, his other seeds are just plain dumb and you are invited to tell him as much.
The upshot of all of these is that we currently are a 2 seed, which you already knew. But in reviewing these brackets, it’s become clear to me that our 2 seed status isn’t as secure as I thought it was. One of Duke, Virginia and Syracuse is likely to win the ACC tournament and that team could pass us unless we make the B1G tournament finals. The question is where we are on the S-Curve. If we’re number 7 or 8, anything short of a B1G finals appearance likely means a 3 seed because we'd be passed by Duke and/or Cuse and/or UVa. If we’re 5 or 6, we probably need to win only one game, provided that we don’t have a bad loss in the semifinals.
Program Alert BTN 7PM: Michigan vs. Syracuse 2013 NCAA Tournament Final 4 Replay followed at 9PM with Final vs Louisville
Relive more of Michigan's tournament run with the victory over Syracuse tonight at 7 on the BTN. Relive Spike's moment of a lifetime at 9.
Here is a fun fact that occured to me which I don't think I've seen anyone point out: Michigan has the best regular season record of any team in the B1G in the past three years. The teams' records are as follows (invididual season records are ordered as 2014, 2013, 2012):
1. Michigan: 40-14 (15-3, 12-6, 13-5)
2. MSU: 38-16 (12-6, 13-5, 13-5)
3. OSU: 36-18 (10-8, 13-5, 13-5)
4. Wisconsin*: 36-18 (12-6, 12-6, 12-6)
5. Indiana: 32-22 (7-11, 14-4, 11-7)
6. Iowa: 26-28 (9-9, 9-9, 8-10)
7. Purdue: 23-31 (5-13, 8-10, 10-8)
8. Minnesota: 22-32 (8-10, 8-10, 6-12)
9. Illinois: 21-33 (7-11, 8-10, 6-12)
10. Nebraska: 20-34 (11-7, 5-13, 4-14)
11. Northwestern: 18-36 (6-12, 4-14, 8-10)
12. Penn State: 12-42 (6-12, 2-16, 4-14)
*May they be attainted and stripped of all rank and title, of all lands and holdings, and sentenced to death.
Kobe Bryant is out for rest of season. From ESPN's online article
Bryant has been sidelined since Dec. 17 with a fracture of the lateral tibial plateau in his left knee. He also missed the Lakers' first 19 games while recovering from a torn Achilles in his left leg suffered last season.
After 18 years in the league, is Father Time telling him it's time to hang up the sneakers?
This idea was just something I wanted to look up and share with the board.
I wanted to see how teams fared in the NCAAT the season after they made the Elite 8. I started with how the teams from the Elite 8 in 2010 did in the 2011 NCAAT. So here it goes:
How the 2010 Elite 8 teams fared in the 2011 NCAAT:
Michigan State: Lost in Round of 64
Tennessee: Lost in Round of 64
Butler: Lost in Championship Game
Kansas St: Lost in Round of 32
Kentucky: Lost in Final 4
West Virginia: Lost in Round of 32
Duke: Lost in Sweet 16
How the 2011 Elite 8 teams fared in the 2012 NCAAT:
Kentucky: Won the NCAAT
North Carolina: Lost in the Elite 8
Kansas: Lost in Championship Game
VCU: Lost in Round of 32
Florida: Lost in the Elite 8
How the 2012 Elite 8 teams fared in the 2013 NCAAT:
Louisville: Won the NCAAT
Florida: Lost in the Elite 8
Syracuse: Lost in the Final 4
Ohio State: Lost in the Elite 8
North Carolina: Lost in the Round of 32
Kansas: Lost in the Sweet 16
In total, we have:
24 total teams. Of the 24, 6 did not make it or were ineligible for the NCAAT. 6 did not make it past the first weekend (out of the round of 32). 2 were bounced in the Sweet Sixteen, 4 in the Elite Eight, 2 in the Final Four, and 4 made the Championship game, with 2 winning it all.
12/24 either did not make the NCAAT or were bounced in the first weekend.
14/24 did not make it back to the Elite Eight
How the Elite 8 teams from 2013 are faring in 2014:
#1 Florida: 29-2
#2 Wichita St: 34-0
#5 Louisville: 26-5
#7 Duke: 24-7
#8 Michigan: 23-7
#11 Syracuse: 27-4
#24 Ohio St: 23-8
NR Marquette: 17-14
Projected Seeds (from Lunardi): 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, n/a
Outlook for the 2014 NCAAT: There is a very good chance that we could see more than half these teams return to the Elite 8. We can eliminate Marquette. Of the remaining 7, OSU would be the other team to write off.
Of the remaining 6, 5 have shown that they are capable of competing at a high level against tough competition. If I were to make a predicition, I would say that 5 of these 8 will make the Elite 8 this year. And judging from the projected seeds, this seems very possible.