I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
“ATTEMPT AT A BIG TEN HOOPS SCORECARD”
Over this past weekend, I began to frame out the hoops version of the football scorecard that I had advanced last month on the board. Indeed, I have already made some enhancements to that one thanks to the input of board members. This one, however, is indeed another rough attempt at correlating various productivity measures into a relative measure of success.
I took eighteen typical boxscore statistics and gathered the season-to-date totals for each team in the conference. When the season is complete, it might be intriguing to do a “conference vs. overall” sort of analysis with this, but for now, I am presenting merely the overall card to this point. There were a few things that I admittedly waffled on leaving here, but did for purposes of discussion. Most notably, the actual totals of FGs, 3PTs, and FTs both made and attempted are analyzed along with success rate. My thought here was – among other things - that it indicates potentially where teams could be doing a lot of work for very little return and could show inefficiency.
Obviously, it is not by any means an exact science, and although I show that the results are rather highly correlated to actual win percentage, they obviously do not take into account the whole set of variables active in a game, and indeed, in a season, such as strength of schedule. This is merely an attempt to apply a similar scoring approach to basketball as I had done with football. It is fairly similar to the football scorecard in that there are certain statistics where being above the conference mean is decidedly better, and a few where actually being below the mean is preferred.
The larger table is linked below – there is no way to compress the overall scorecard to make it fit easily into the diary setup on the blog, so the link should take you to the relevant images in my Photobucket account.
OVERALL CARD (THUMBNAIL):
The idea of "grading" teams on these 18 metrics seems to bear itself out fairly well if we correlate it to current win percentage. One of the noted anomolies here is Ohio State, which falls into the "red" zone, but yet has a fairly decent win percentage. This might be an example of one of the thing which mere productivity does not catch, which is a team with erratic shooting success that plays decent defense, enough so to win a majority of the time. If anyone has some suggestions on ironing such things out, I would love to hear them as I want to make these as accurate as possible.
Comments and suggestions are welcome as always. My intent here is to develop tools which can be used perhaps by the whole community here to gauge relative performance among our fellow conference members.
FOR THOSE WHO MERELY WANT THE CAT PHOTO:
Besides the 2014 fake commitment of Rodney Davis, there's not much going on today. Sooo I figured I'd compare Morgan and McGary's play during conference games.
01/03 at Northwestern.
21 MIN. 6/8 FG. 12 pts. 13 reb. 0 blk. 0 stl. 1 PF. 3 TO
01/06 vs Iowa.
14 MIN. 2/3 FG. 4 pts. 2 reb. 0 blk. 0 stl. 4 PF. 1 TO.
01/09 vs Nebraska.
23 MIN. 0/1 FG. 0 pts. 11 reb. 0 blk. 0 stl. 1 PF. 1 TO.
01/13 @ Ohio.
22 MIN. 2/2 FG. 5 pts. 6 reb. 0 blk. 0 stl. 0 PF. 2 TO.
01/17 @ Minnesota
20 MIN. 4/6 FG. 9 pts. 4 reb. 0 blk. 1 stl. 2 PF. 1 TO.
20 MIN. 70% FG. 6 pts. 7.2 reb. 0 blk. .2 stl. 1.6 PF. 1.6 TO.
01/03 at Northwestern.
20 MIN. 1/4 FG. 4 pts. 8 reb. 1 blk. 2 stl. 3 PF. 1 TO.
01/06 vs Iowa.
20 MIN. 2/2 FG. 5 pts. 11 reb. 3 blk. 0 stl. 2 PF. 0 TO.
01/09 vs Nebraska.
18 MIN. 1/4 FG. 2 pts. 6 reb. 1 blk. 1 stl. 3 PF. 0 TO.
01/13 @ Ohio.
18 MIN. 3/3 FG. 6 pts. 3 reb. 2 blk. 0 stl. 3 PF. 1 TO.
01/17 @ Minnesota
20 MIN. 4/5 FG. 8 pts. 2 reb. 1 blk. 3 stl. 4 PF. 1 TO.
19.2 MIN. 61% FG. 5 pts. 6 reb. 1.6 blk. 1.2 stl. 3 PF. .6 TO.
As McGary continues to get in better shape and avoids the stupid fouls, it's going to be hard to keep him off the floor. There are so many other things that he does that you don't see on the stat sheet. As the year goes on, I would not be surprised to see him moved into the starting five. For now though, I do think it should continue to be Morgan.
The NCAA is expected to hand down its notice of allegations against Miami this week. Missouri coach Frank Haith is expected to be hit with with charges of unethical conduct and a failure to promote an atmosphere of complaince. This could result in a multiple year show cause penalty, similar to the 3 year show cause penalty Bruce Pearl received. Considering the basketball program was reported to be in much less trouble then the football program is it leads me to believe they are going to get hit hard.
Much to my surprise, there has been some demand to look at the relationship between basketball results and the Coach's Poll, the same way I have looked at B1G football results and the Coach's Poll. Apologies for any errors; copying results off of ESPN.com and lining it up by week was an invitation to mix a few things up (an opportunity I am sure I took). Also, I know some of the games at tournaments are not accurately labeled--I might have to update.
How to read: The week reflects the week of the results; RESULT #XX reflects the poll ranking following those results. This is intended to make it easier to follow a potential cause (results) with the effect (ranking).
- Week 1: Beat Bryant 97-54 (RESULT #1)
- Week 2: Beat NDSU 87-61, Beat Sam Houston St. 99-45 (RESULT #1)
- Week 3: Won @ Georgia 66-53, Won @ Georgetown 82-72, beat Ball St. 101-53 (P.S. Brady Hoke now hates you, Tom Crean) (RESULT #1)
- Week 4: Beat UNC 83-59, beat Coppin St. 87-51 (RESULT #1)
- Week 5: Beat Central Conn. St. 100-69 (RESULT #1)
- Week 6: Lost @ Butler, 88-86 (RESULT #6)
- Week 7: Beat Mt. St. Mary's, 93-54, beat Fla. Atl. 88-52 (RESULT #5)
- Week 8: Beat Jacksonville, 93-59 (RESULT #5)
- Week 9: Won @ Iowa 69-65 (RESULT #5)
- Week 10: Won @ Penn St. 74-51, beat Minnesota 88-81 (RESULT #2)
- Week 1: Beat Albany (RESULT: #4)
- Week 2: Won @ URI 69-58, Beat Washington 77-66 (RESULT: #3)
- Week 3: Beat UMKC 91-45 (RESULT: #4)
- Week 4: Lost @ Duke, 73-68, beat NKU 70-43 (RESULT: #7)
- Week 5: Beat Long Beach St. 89-55 (RESULT: #7)
- Week 6: Beat Savannah St., 85-45, beat UNC-Asheville 90-72 (RESULT: #7)
- Week 7: Beat Winthrop 65-55, lost to Kansas 74-66 (RESULT: #10)
- Week 8: Beat Chicago St. 87-44 (RESULT: #8)
- Week 9: Beat Nebraska 70-44, lost @ Illinois 74-55 (RESULT: #14)
- Week 10: Won @ Purdue 74-64, beat Michigan 56-53 (and resolved to break referees' glasses before every home game) (RESULT: #11)
- Week 1: Beat Slippery Rock, 82-60 (RESULT: #5)
- Week 2: Beat IUPUI 91-54, Beat Cleveland St. 77-47 (RESULT: #4)
- Week 3: Beat Pitt at a tournament, 67-62, beat K-State at same tournament 71-57 (RESULT: #3)
- Week 4: Beat NC State 79-72, Won @ Bradley 74-66 (RESULT: #3)
- Week 5: Beat W. Michigan 73-41, Beat Arkansas 80-67 (RESULT: #3)
- Week 6: Beat Binghamton 67-39, beat W. Va. 81-66 (RESULT: #2)
- Week 7: Beat E. Michigan 93-54 (RESULT: #2)
- Week 8: Beat C. Michigan, 88-73 (RESULT: #2)
- Week 9: Won @ Northwestern 94-66, beat Iowa 95-67 (RESULT: #2)
- Week 10: Beat Nebraska 62-47, lost @ Ohio* 56-53 (and purchased glasses for all of the referees) (RESULT: #5)
- Week 1: Lost in Germany to UConn 66-62 (RESULT: #22)
- Week 2: Won @ Kansas 67-64, beat TX Southern 69-41 (RESULT: #19)
- Week 3: Beat Boise St. 74-70 (narrow win over crappy BSU team--Izzo imitating Dantonio...), Beat Oakland 70-52, Beat LA-Lafayette 63-60 (RESULT: #14)
- Week 4: Lost @ Miami (YTM) 67-59, beat Nicholls St. 84-39 (RESULT: #17)
- Week 5: Beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 76-44, beat Loyola (of Illinois) 73-61 (RESULT: #19)
- Week 6: Beat Tuskegee 92-56 (RESULT: #19)
- Week 7: Won @ Bowling Green 64-53, beat Texas 67-56 (RESULT: #19)
- Week 8: No games (RESULT: #18)
- Week 9: Lost @ Minnesota 76-63, beat Purude 84-61 (RESULT: #18)
- Week 10: Won @ Iowa 62-59, beat Nebraska 66-56 (RESULT: #17)
- Week 1: Beat SE Louisiana 87-47 (RESULT: #20)
- Week 2: Loss @ Florida 74-56, beat Cornell 73-40 (RESULT: #24)
- Week 3: Beat Presbyterian 88-43, Lost to Creighton 84-74, Won @ Arkansas 77-70 (take that, Bret Bielema) (RESULT: NR, 7th vote getter)
- Week 4: Lost to Virginia 60-54, beat California 81-56 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
- Week 5: Beat Nebraska-Omaha 86-40, lost @ Marquette 60-50 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
- Week 6: Beat Wisconsin-Green Bay 65-54 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
- Week 7: Beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee 74-53 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
- Week 8: Beat Samford 87-51 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
- Week 9: (RESULT: NR, no votes) Beat Penn St. 60-51, won @ Nebraska 47-41
- Week 10: Beat Illinois, 74-51, won @ Indiana 64-59 (RESULT: NR, 4th vote getter--I guess it helps to win @ Indiana. A lot.)
- Week 1: Beat American, 72-36 (RESULT: NR, 11th vote getter)
- Week 2: Beat Toledo 82-56, beat Tennessee St., 72-43, beat Richmond 72-57 (RESULT: NR, 5th vote getter)
- Week 3: Lost to Duke, 71-89, beat Memphis 84-75, beat Stanford 66-63 (RESULT: NR, 1st vote getter)
- Week 4: Won @ Fla. St. 77-68, Beat N. Fla. 87-59 (RESULT: #21)
- Week 5: Beat SDSU 88-64, won @ USC (of California) 71-57 (RESULT: #16)
- Week 6: Beat NDSU 70-57 (RESULT: #16)
- Week 7: Beat Lafayette, 75-50 (RESULT: #14)
- Week 8: No games (RESULT: #13)
- Week 9: Beat MSU 76-63, beat Northwestern 69-51 (RESULT: #10)
- Week 10: Won @ Illinois 84-67, lost @ Indiana 88-81 (RESULT:#12)
- There seem to be fewer inexplicable jumps when looking solely at a team's results than in football (there is no equivalent to NW's incredible jump after clubbing a floundering Illinois team). The closest I could find is MSU losing @ YTM and still going up two slots. But other than that...
- It appears that if you lose, no matter how good the opponent and how highly ranked you are, the team is going to drop. This is in contrast with football, where a team who played a very tough road game (like Indiana at Butler, or Michigan at Ohio*) and lost would not slide more than a slot or two.
- I do not know whether it is that there are more games, the voters play closer attention, or the box score really does tell you more (there is no bball equivalent to a fluke game-changing interception or punt return for touchdown, at least in terms of magnitude), or that the computer ranking system is more respected for basketball (RPI vs BCS), but there appears to be a higher correlation between team results and moves in the rankings despite having significantly more basketball teams.
Thoughts? Comments? Errors?
Michigan checks in at #1 and #2 behind duke in the AP poll
Top of the rankings...
Other Big10 teams...
Past Notable Opponents...
18 NC State
Mod edit: Added the Coaches Poll so this could all be one thread. JGB
(10-8, 3-2 Big Ten)
RPI - 112
Wins vs Top 100 Opponents
|Wins (RPI 51-100)|
|59||Jan. 16||@ Nebraska||65-56|
|86||Jan. 19||West Virginia||79-52|
|Losses (RPI 1-50)|
|39||Dec. 15||Notre Dame*||68-81|
|16||Jan. 5||@ Michigan State||61-84|
|26||Jan. 8||Ohio State||64-74|
|Losses (RPI 51-100)|
|Losses (RPI 150+)|
|152||Nov. 16||Oregon State*||58-66|
|215||Dec. 8||@ Eastern Michigan||44-47|
FR. Ronnie Johnson. G. 6'0" 170lbs
9.1 ppg. 3.9 rpg. 3.4 apg.
JR. Terone Johnson. G. 6'2" 199lbs
13.4 ppg. 4.7 rpg. 3.1 apg.
FR. Rapheal Davis. G. 6'5" 211lbs
5.6 ppg. 3.2 rpg. 52% fg.
SR. D.J. Byrd. G-F. 6'5" 228lbs
10.4 ppg. 6.4 3pa. 3.8 rpg.
FR. A.J. Hammons. C. 7'0" 280lbs
10.3 ppg. 6.3 rpg. 2.1 bpg. (Leads the Big Ten)
Key Bench Players
SO. Anthony Johnson. G. 6'3" 191lbs
21.8 MIN. 6.1 ppg. 3.6 rpg.
FR. Donnie Hale. F. 6'8" 221lbs
14.8 MIN. 3.9 ppg. 3.2 rpg.
SO. Jacob Lawson. F. 6'8" 217 lbs.
14.4 MIN. 3.1 ppg. 3.1 rpg.
*Yes, they do have three guards with the last name Johnson that play significant minutes*
Key Team Stats (Big Ten Rankings)
9th in Scoring (66.8/game)
9th in FG% (42%)
9th in 3PT% (32%)
11th in SPG (5.17)
11th in FT%. (63%)
12th in 3PA (14/game)
1st in Total Rebounds (41.2)
T-2nd in BPG (4.89)
2nd in Offensive Rebounds (14.4)
What I make out of all of this
This is a very streaky team. As you can see from their wins/losses, they are capable of beating good teams and losing to bad teams. It looks like it's going to be another battle on the boards and down low, similar to how Minnesota was. This is not a good shooting team and they don't take many 3s, so make them shoot.
Purdue 48, Michigan 63.
I don't think Purdue is going to be able to keep up with us offensively and therefore we are going to pull away in the 2nd half. Hammons is going to give us trouble down low in the first half, much like Mbakwe did, but they will make some adjustments in the 2nd half to counter that. I think this is going to be a game that GRIII has a double-double with around 20pts.