This week, I decided on a short diary outlining the probability of various scenarios in remaining games using the estimated probabilities provided at Massy Ratings. As you know, there are six games left, so there are sixty-four possible outcomes for the remainder of the season at present.
What that means, of course, is that looked at individually, many scenarios have similar chances of happening, but there are a few that stand out as more likely than others, although again none are good bets at this particular point. As for ones that currently stand out (if you can call it this – I wouldn’t):
1) 2-4, with the wins coming against Northwestern and Rutgers – 9.805%
2) 1-5, with the sole win being Rutgers – 8.695%
3) 3-3, beating MSU, Northwestern and Rutgers – 7.397%
4) 2-4, with wins against MSU and Rutgers – 6.559%
Conversely, there are some which are seemingly in statistical dreamland:
1) 4-2, with the losses being Northwestern and Rutgers – 0.060%
2) 5-1, with the sole loss being Rutgers – 0.068%
3) 3-3, with wins against Illinois, Ohio St. and Maryland – 0.080%
4) 4-2, with losses to Michigan St. and Rutgers – 0.090%
As you might have guessed, the opposite of the most likely scenarios are in fact the least likely in this case. Is this cumulative probabilities based on remaining wins:
Yes, at present it is more likely based on these numbers that we run the table than only losing to Rutgers down the stretch. One thing that came up, however, when I did one or two such diaries for football is that there is an assumption here that the outcomes are independent, and that’s for ease of calculation here, although Massey’s model does account for the interconnected nature of the season somewhat, as I recall.
So, looking ahead and pretending we beat Illinois – the picture would change only slightly. We would still would stand a decent excellent chance of going 3-2 or 2-3 in the remaining five games, ignoring changes to other teams’ numbers just for ease for a second. The individual scenarios above would see their relative likelihoods increase, but it would be approximately the same top and bottom four (some slight alterations allowing for eliminated scenarios), barring other changes.
Today must be Autsin Hatch day at ESPN (I''m not opposed to making this a national holiday).
At 6PM on ESPNU, the full version of the SC Featured story on Hatch will be aired. But if you want a Hatch fix right now, I highly suggest you read Dana O'Neil's piece on Hatch.
I love this kid's story and am so proud he represents our university the way he does. A true inspiration to us all.
I was listening to the radio on my way into work this morning, and they were talking about how LeVert going down is good for the future of this team. Next year's team should have a lot of experience. I agree with that, and I'm excited for next year (while still being somewhat hopeful for this year.)
But then I thought about the Iowa game. Iowa was able to do whatever they wanted because they are just so much bigger than our players. No matter how much experience you have, it won't add inches to your height. How will the team overcome that?
(This topic probably doesn't really deserve its own thread, but it's a slow morning, so figured I'd get some discussion going.)
One week after Tom Brady won the Super Bowl MVP, it was quite a day (and night) for ex-Wolverines:
- Mitch McGary broke out for 19 points and 10 rebounds in a win over the Clippers, just a few days after being in the D-League.
- In that same game, Jamal Crawford pumped in 21 points for the Clippers.
- Max Paxioretty had a goal and an assist for the Canadiens in a win over the Bruins.
- Jacob Trouba had a goal for the Jets in a win over Colorado.
- Carl Hagelin had a goal for the Rangers in a loss to Dallas.
On the flip side, GR III did not play (coach's decision) and Nik Stauskas went scoreless in 10 minutes. Still, our ex-guys own Sundays!
Just scored on two quick layups. Finally getting some playing time!
Of course, i'd prefer for him to be on the floor in Bloomington, but whatever.
I wonder if Scott Brooks will actually use him often instead of running Durant and Westbrook into the ground.
Beat the Hoosiers.