Tennessee is not recruiting well just because they got 18 dudes
HALFWAY THROUGH THE CONFERENCE SCHEDULE
I thought this might be a good time to review the Four Factors with regards to Michigan basketball now that we’re nine games into the conference schedule. For this diary, we’ll just focus on these nine games – there will likely be a grand analysis of the entire season talking OOC / conference, win / loss, home / away, etc…at the end of the regular season.
First, however, some averages of those factors in the conference schedule to date:
Effective FG% - 46.84%
Off. Rebound % - 26.98%
Free Throw Rate – 26.97%
Turnover Rate – 14.65%
A few other stats to perhaps consider as well – the average A/T ratio for Michigan in these nine games is 1.35 and their average offensive PPP is 1.01 (average number of possessions per game for Michigan is 59, incidentally). That PPP, well not quite as high as in past years for conference play – at least for the Wolverines – does include six performances north of 1.00, games in which we were 5-1 (the sole loss in that subset being Wisconsin, where our PPP was 1.13).
Effective FG% - 46.94%
Off. Rebound % - 30.06%
Free Throw Rate – 32.26%
Turnover Rate – 16.01%
Also for our opponents, they achieve an average A/T ratio of 0.943 and an average offensive PPP of 0.99 (which, of course, is our defensive PPP). Buried in that average PPP are 5 sub-1.00 performances for our opponents, which is part good defense and part playing mostly the lower reaches of the Big Ten conference up to this point.
Looking at the four factors themselves, however, you see a team that is not exactly outshooting anyone, extending a lot of possessions, getting to the line often…and then it makes sense that Michigan’s average margin of victory / loss when it comes to points is actually about 5 points in wins and 13 points in losses (I know, average of three numbers….grumble grumble). The grand average regardless of margin is 0.22 points.
So, here’s what the four factors look like game-by-game (we are, of course, in blue):
Offensive Rebound %:
Free Throw Rate:
For kicks, I looked at Michigan’s four factors split win to loss (so again, average of three numbers….I know):
eFG% in conference wins – 49.25% (1.06 offensive PPP)
eFG% in conference losses – 42.03% (0.92 offernesive PPP)
OREB% in conference wins – 27.68%
OREB% in conference losses – 25.59%
FTR in conference wins – 27.80%
FTR in conference losses – 25.59%
TOV% in conference wins – 14.09%
TOV% in conference losses – 15.77%
Aside from eFG%, there doesn’t seem to be much variance between wins and losses, although take a surface analysis for what it is worth there. The end of season breakdown could very well be more interesting. Right now, the profile of the average conference game has Michigan shooting 20-52 or so including 7-21 from beyond the arc, as well as only 13 FT attempts per game and only 8 offensive rebounds.
Alright, alright....so this is my first time posting a new thread, so take it easy on me here. Just saw that Joe Lunardi made an update to his Bracketology selections this morning and Michigan is making some noise! Joe now has Michigan listed as the 6th team left out. I've read a few folks saying that finishing 5-4 in their final 9 games (and a win in the BTT) wil likely lock us for a bid. I think a lot will depend on just who those 5 wins come againist but I just can't see us getting left out with a conference record of 11-7. I also checked Bracket Matrix this morning and we are currently on two 'experts' brackets and on the fringe on many.
Episode covers the heart breaking loss to Wisconsin and the win at Rutgers. The full college gameday at Crisler is also posted with the Austin Hatch fearure and HARBAUGH. Enjoy BEAT STATE!!
EA Sports did a great feature story on Jalen Rose's charter school in Detroit:
The more I read and hear about what he's doing with that school, the more my admiration for Jalen grows. He doesn't have to be doing this - he could just be sitting back at ESPN writing checks to his alma mater so that everybody would think he's a great guy. When you see this story about his school, you see that he's really walking the walk.
And he drops a semi-bombshell in this: He might want to run for Mayor of Detroit someday. Maybe THEN they'll put the banners back up in Crisler.
He's currently ripping Izzo on 97.1 and saying that Beilein has passed him as a coach. I've got my popcorn ready.