that is nice bonus change
36 Mins, 6-12 Shooting, 3-4 from three for 18 Points, 8 Assists, and 2 Rebs
Last week I tried to predict the final B1G standings accounting for the uneven schedule and placing all 12 teams into specific tiers.
After two weeks of play, we have a little more data and I think some of the assumptions are up for debate. The first is that I put Penn State as a tier 4 team along with Nebraska. After PSU failed to protect its home court against both Indiana and Minnesota (tier 3 teams), I think it's time to downgrade PSU to tier 5. Things look grim for them. So, going back to the beginning of the year, here is what the model predicted for final standings with the original and new assumptions.
|Initial Assumptions||With PSU Downgrade|
|Ohio State||15||3||Ohio State||15||3|
|Michigan State||14||4||Michigan State||14||4|
Basically, the difference is that PSU plummets and the mid range teams get an extra win by assuming they will now win at PSU.
Using the new (PSU downgraded model) there have been three games in the first two weeks that have broken the assumptions.
|2-Jan||Mich 63, @ Minn 60||Mich 11-7, Minn 8-10|
|12-Jan||Iowa 84, @OSU 74||Iowa 12-6, OSU 14-4|
|12-Jan||(@)NW 49, Illinois 43||NW 3-15, Illinois 7-11|
I think it's still up for debate where Michigan and Minnesota fall into things, but yesterday's two upsets were definitely surprising. Taking these results into account, my new projection for the final B1G standings is...
Some thoughts going forward.
- Someone is going to have to go into Madison and beat Wisconsin, or they are going to ride that schedule to a title. Hoping a tier 3 team (Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue) will be able to beat them is pretty wishful thinking.
- Nebraska may be in consideration to move up a tier at some point. A 10 point road loss at Iowa looks pretty good. They also hung with Purdue on the road and obviously almost beat UM. They are dangerous.
- Illinois is in danger of a downgrade. OT win at home against Indiana, demolished on the road by Wisconsin, and losing to NW is a dangerous way to start the league season.
- Michigan not getting road games at NW or PSU will make it hard to get to the top.
For those interested, at 4:30 on BTN Michigan State travels to Crisler to play Michigan in a Women's Basketball game. Michigan is 11-4 (2-0) on the season with Big Ten wins at Ohio State and at home against Wisconsin. Michigan State is 10-5 (2-0) on the season with wins at Minnesota and home against a good Nebraska team.
Iowa is playing a close game at Columbus. Iowa hasn't gotten much talk as a B1G contender but they've played well pretty much every night and their losses were all winnable games. They might have beaten UW in Madison if McCaffery hadn't blown a fuse.
In other B1G news, Purdue beat Nebraska - PU is now 11-5 overall. They may be underrated.
Illinois visits NW later today. Even on the road, UI should easily take care of business if they're really a top 25 team.
Full game for Michigan at Nebraska for those who want to rewatch it. Enjoy
RealGM has quantified how much Beilein's teams get better after Nov/Dec. Really interesting.
If you are looking for a coach whose team typically does get better later in the year, look no further than Michigan head coach John Beilein. In 8 of the last 10 seasons and for six straight years, Beilein’s teams have seen their Pyth. Winning Percentage improve after the opening two months.The link contains a helpful chart showing the degree of improvement.