Mike Lantry, 1972
OK, so that happened. The great thing about the Big Ten standings is that they don't take 19-point first-half deficits into account. :-) Unsurprisingly, the performance in West Lafayette reduced KenPom's probabilities of Michigan victory in each of the next three games; combined with an Illinois victory over Nebraska, the remaining schedule looks a couple of percentage points harder than it did a few days ago.
Having said that, GRIII's layup turned a 74% (pregame) probability of victory into 100%, which more than makes up for the slightly smaller future percentages. Here's an updated chart of Michigan's expected final record, again to two signficant figures:
Staee hasn't played; their chart is nearly unchanged:
Wisky, now alone in third place:
|11-7 or worse||13%|
Ohio, still up half a game on Iowa:
|11-7 or worse||67%|
|11-7 or worse||79%|
(Nebraska, unsuprisingly, has been eliminated from title contention).
Combining the various scenarios, we get the following chance of winning the title with the given record (i.e., the rows add up to 100% and represent the probability of each outcome if Michigan achieves the record listed).
|Record||Outright Title||Shared Title||No Title|
Multiplying by the data in the first table -- the chance that Michigan achieves each of these records -- gives us an 83% chance of an outright title (up from 75% on Sunday) and a 15% chance of a shared title, for a whopping 98% chance of hanging a Big Ten championship banner for 2014.
With the victory over the Boilermakers, Michigan has also locked up a first-round bye in the Big Ten tournament. (I'll spare you the details, but suffice it to say that even if they lose out, Michigan's worst possible finish is a tie for fourth, and the winning record against the top teams in the B1G standings would pay dividends in any tiebreaker).
Clinching/eliminatation scenarios for the remainder of the week and weekend:
- Michigan cannot clinch the outright title this weekend. However, Michigan can clinch a share of the title with a win and a loss by Staee.
- Iowa plays @Indiana and vs. Purdue and is eliminated with any loss or Michigan victory.
- Ohio plays @PSU and @Indiana and is eliminated with any loss or Michigan victory.
- Wisconsin plays @PSU. A loss or Michigan victory means that they can do no better than a share of the title; a loss and a Michigan victory would eliminate them entirely.
- Staee plays at home against Illinois; if they lose and Michigan wins, they can do no better than a share of the title.
As always, Go Blue!
(Edit: corrected a typo - "play dividends" -> "pay dividends")
The last time Michigan won on a buzzer beater, to my recollection, was Tommy Amaker's first season: January 19, 2002 at Crisler.
Michigan came back from a 10 point deficit against Minnesota in the final 6 minutes to tie the game 69-69. On the final play, Bernard Robinson Jr. threw up a 12 foot floater that went in at the buzzer.
That was the only drama to celebrate that year as the team finished 11-18. The team was so bad, there's no footage of it on youtube or pictures of it on google.
The only other buzzer beater I can think of was the Fab Five's secound round tournament game against UCLA in 1993 with Jimmy King's put back....
Can anyone think of any others?
Tonight Illinios beat Nebraska, 60-49. While this is insignificant in terms of the B1G standings, it's another thing to celebrate because it helps *Beilein's chances for coach of the year, and Nik's chances for player of the year (Petteway had a very pedestrian game, shooting 27% from the field). Another thing to celebrate tonight. Go Blue!
There's been so many people questioning this kid's ability (and downright hating on him). Yet he's made SO many hustle plays in the last few games.
I, for one; am really proud of how he's battled and figured out his role on this team.
7/11, 3/4 FT, 17 points, 8 Rebounds and 3 assists.
And a game-winning shot on his daddy's home floor. Big ups to G.
How far can this team go if Stauskas, LeVert, and GR3 all play well on the same night?
What a finish!
Let's go boys!