Basketball

OUR WATCH HAS ENDED

I fired off an unusual Sunday post because I was sick of updating and updating and updating a post and thought it would be obsolete by Monday. It was. Roddy Gayle Jr is in. Sam Walters is in. Lorenzo Cason is in. Vlad Goldin… well, he should be in sooner rather than later.

Assuming Goldin, this is as of this moment a basketball team with zero open scholarship slots. To go from "Will Tschetter, I guess?" to this in a couple of weeks is the most whirlwind roster makeover in the history of Michigan athletics.

BUT ADMISSIONS?

Never say never in this department but they've officially announced Gayle and Jones. They briefly announced Donaldson before yoinking that back so I assume that he's on the verge. Goldin should be a grad transfer, Wolf was at Yale, and Walters had just one year at Alabama. My assumption is that after the prior debacles, Dusty May wasn't going to let anyone announce until their transcript got checked out. We'll see about the validity of that assumption.

ARE WE DONE?

Probably. Anyone who comes in at this point would either have to be cool with a year of apprenticeship or tantalizing enough to take despite a potentially negative knock-on effect for guys projected to be in the rotation—primarily Will Tschetter and Nimari Burnett.

Two of the obvious take options aren't happening. St Mary's SG Aidan Mahaney visited Creighton, has a couple more visits set up, and is picking between three non-M schools for his final one. Meanwhile, FAU SG Johnell Davis is seemingly between Kentucky and Arkansas.

I still think Oakland F Trey Townsend isn't happening, either, but he's apparently done with visits; Michigan is one of three schools that got one. Ohio State and Arizona are the others. Tony Paul points out that OSU just picked up former teammate Micah Parrish.

The other two guys worth the swing are Khani Rooths and Liam McNeeley, two top 50 recruits who could play the 3 or 4. I am still in 1% mode when it comes to McNeeley. Rooths is more plausible but the "I am 100% open" tweet is a bit of a downer, and Michigan's depth chart is suddenly jammed.

I mean, sure, if either of those guys wants in you take them, offer Jace Howard a PWO spot, and figure it out later. But Michigan just went from the place you'll definitely play a ton to a place where you're in a war for minutes. I think this is it.

So!

[After THE JUMP: what you've won]

Dusty May continued his portal invasion on Saturday, when Yale transfer Danny Wolf pledged to the Wolverines. 

Much like Rubin Jones, Yale is scant on legit competition, so I reviewed full game film against their very best opponents in Kansas, Auburn and San Diego State. 

SCOUTING (Offense)

The most projectable facet of Wolf's game is undoubtedly playmaking. He's a superb passer for a big and has the look of an offensive engine in a Delay-centric offense as the trigger-man. A 21.8 assist rate versus top-50 opponents (Torvik) is bonkers considering the talent he is surrounded with. 

With respect to Hunter Dickinson, Danny may very well be the most naturally talented passer/playmaking big (distinct from productive) that has come through Ann Arbor in quite some time. Hunter was phenomenal passing from the post and the top of the key, but he simply wasn't capable of dropping dimes from a live dribble like we see below:

That is legit guard-esque playmaking that isn't just good for the position, it's just downright excellence. 

The playmaking from the post/passing out of doubles is lethal as well. Wolf's processing time is very fast. He literally finds teammates at the precise moment the opposition commits to a legit double rather than simple stunts. That optimizes passing windows and totally manipulates the defense as we see below:  

Danny's ability to excel as a trigger man in structured offense pops-off too. Yale is running Zoom action below (guard entry pass to Wolf at the slot>then corner screen for other guard>DHO to guard receiving the screen). #3 for Yale isn't coming off the screen clean enough for Wolf's liking, so he waits to read the defense. Look at the placement + touch on that pass. In football terms, he's throwing the receiver open. 

[After THE JUMP: the full scouting report]

Remember this morning when I said Michigan still needed a power forward?

Walters chose Michigan over Ohio State, Kentucky, and Louisville after a freshman season as Alabama's 7th man. He profiled last year as a straight-up stretch four Just-a-Shooter plus decent defensive rebounding.

Walters came off the bench every game last year, extending his time on the court to ~15 mpg in the latter part of February. However Walters was stymied by classmate Jarin Stevenson also coming off the bench to play the four, and wasn't very efficient (16th percentile to Synergy) in transition for a team that got 38% of their initial shots (to hoop-math) on the run.

What Walters can do is get a shot up over just about anyone. He was 94th percentile to Synergy on *Guarded* catch-and-shoot jumpers at 43%, actually dipping down to 35% (15/43) when uncontested.

His transfer video shows a pogo-stick with a clean release and not a lot of meat on the bones.

Defense is also predicated on that wingspan. It also sounds like he improved a lot over the course of last season. Feet may limit his NBA upside, but Walters's height and length, and a season of SEC experience, should mean he's not a liability on the other end. On a team filled with creators, adding a floor-spacer like Walters should mean Michigan can score with anybody. Adding a sophomore should also mean Dusty May isn't forced to go portal hunting like this again in two years.

Matt D will have a much more thorough breakdown after he sorts through the rest of this weekend's commitapalooza. Here's what the roster roster looks like:

PG: Tre Donaldson (Jr), Durral Brooks (Fr), [Lorenzo Cason (Fr)]
SG: Roddy Gayle (Jr), George Washington III (So), Justin Pippen (Fr)
Also SG: Rubin Jones (Sr*), [Nimari Burnett (Jr*)], [Jace Howard (Sr*)]
PF: Will Tschetter (Jr), Sam Walters (So)
C: [Vlad Goldin(Sr*)], Danny Wolf (Jr)

Michigan is now up to nine players committed for 2024-'25, with Vlad Goldin widely expected to join them after he goes through the Draft process. Nimari Burnett and Jace Howard (who can be a walk-on) haven't entered the portal or announced returns. From here they're probably going to keep pursuing 2024 5-star Khani Rooths for a 3/4 role, and/or look to add one or two more guards.