Baseball/Softball

I wrote a softball update a few weeks back, when Michigan was starting to show some promise offensively, with a few important weekends upcoming. Three weekend series have passed since then, with Michigan continuing to bank wins and stay near the top of the conference as we learn what this young team is made of. It's about time for another softball update and in turn, it's time to give Michigan's baseball team some love as well, after yet another series win in conference play, most recently over the rival Ohio State Buckeyes. Today we'll be accomplishing both, talking about developments in the softball season and the road ahead, before digging into where Michigan Baseball sits with a month to go in the regular season: 

Softball hitters: REAL 

When I wrote about softball last time, I was reporting on the genuinely encouraging developments on offense for the Wolverines that had suddenly materialized, following a moribund first month of the season. At the time I noted that we would gain more information on just what these young hitters were made of over the following couple weeks, with two solid pitching teams upcoming in Northwestern and Iowa. There were reasons to believe the offensive surge was real, but until they faced more deecent pitching staffs, it was difficult to buy in fully. 

So what happened? Michigan has continued to hit pretty well. They didn't bludgeon Northwestern, which no one was expecting against a team with a star ace like Ashley Miller, but after scoring just one in the first game in an abbreviated run rule game, they put up 4 and then 5 on the 'Cats. It was disappointingly not enough to win any of the games due to a pitching meltdown, but from an offensive standpoint, I came away encouraged. Northwestern has only allowed 4+ runs nine times this season in 38 games and two of those were against the Wolverines. That's something. 

Then came Iowa, who had allowed 6+ runs four times all season. Michigan put up 6+ in all three games, seeming to send their pitching into a tailspin that then carried over into a disastrous series against Indiana this past weekend. Michigan put up 11 and 5 in mid-week games against MSU over the past two weeks and then put up 4, 6, and 11 this past weekend against Nebraska. The pitching held up enough to sweep all of those games against Iowa, MSU, and Nebraska. To cap it all off, Michigan went on the road yesterday to Oakland and defeated the Golden Grizzlies for the second time this season, winning by a 9-4 final score.  

I don't believe that Michigan is one of the very best offenses in college softball, but we have enough evidence now that this is a good college offense. More importantly, it is an offense that is miles better than what they put out there in any of the last few seasons. The numbers over the past 29 games speak for themselves: in that span Michigan is hitting a quadruple slash of .324/.419/.558/.977 as a team. Their batting average, OBP, and SLG would all be top 25 in the country if sustained over a full season. Of course, they haven't been facing the most *elite* pitchers in the country during this stretch (mostly conference games against a weak B1G) and thus we wouldn't expect it to be fully sustained over a full season. but I've followed this team a while now. I've watched versions of Michigan over the years, particularly 2022 and 2023, that couldn't hit the ball against anybody. To now have a team that is bludgeoning the merely okay teams on the schedule is a significant development. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: digging deeper into softball + baseball talk]

It's been a while since there was front page discussion of softball at MGoBlog. I wrote a softball preview nearly two months ago and I haven't written anything since, with the churn of basketball and hockey season consuming my time. But after an eventful weekend for softball, building on a couple of positive weeks, it's time to check back in. We'll give a brief recap of the season, talk about the recent offensive surge (the team's biggest storyline), briefly mention pitching, and then look at the road ahead. 

A brief season recap 

Michigan Softball currently sits 24-11, 6-0 in B1G play. The path to this point has not been consistent or straight forward, an incredibly choppy non-conference portion of the schedule followed by a rapidly improving performance in conference play. The team started the season in Tampa with a 5-3 win over Illinois State, lost a 1-0 shutout to USF, but then closed out the opening weekend with three narrow wins over Bethune Cookman, Florida, and Oregon State. Their next weekend was in Boca Raton, getting wins over Seton Hall and Maine before losing 2-0 to Louisville and 1-0 to host FAU. As you can tell, offense was an issue early on. 

Michigan had an easier weekend at the UC Santa Barbara Tournament after that, taking four of five from a combination of opponents including UCSB, Northern Colorado, and Sacramento State. Michigan stayed out west to play Long Beach State, who they lost to in extras (7-6), and then headed for the hardest weekend, the Judi Garman Classic. There, in Fullerton, Michigan's offensive flopped in tremendous fashion by losing four straight games scoring a combined one run. Granted, it was against some pretty good teams in Cal State Fullerton, UCLA, Texas A&M, and Oregon State, but the anemic performance left no one reassured about the group's future. Offensive fortune did turn around in the final game of the weekend, though, as Michigan shockingly slaughtered an elite Florida team 10-2 in a run rule, their second win of the season over the Gators. 

Michigan then migrated back towards the north with a record of 11-9. They played three games in Highland Heights, Kentucky, sweeping  Bowling Green and Illinois State but dropping one to the hosts of Northern Kentucky. Staying in-state, Michigan jutted over to Louisville for one last non-con weekend over St. Patrick's Day, where they beat South Dakota, Dartmouth, and Illinois (that one didn't count for conference standings), but lost in an ugly run rule to the hosts Louisville. Two days later, Michigan returned home to Ann Arbor and finally began their slate of games at The Hutch, with a 2-0 win over Oakland. 

This was about the time that Michigan's offense really got humming. After the narrow win over Oakland, Michigan played host to one of the lesser teams in the conference in Purdue and slapped the Boilers around. Michigan swept the series, outscoring Purdue 24-5 on aggregate, to begin the year 3-0 in B1G play. They kept the momentum going by detonating Toledo during a mid-week game, 12-3 in a run rule victory, and then went into Bloomington for a big weekend. The Hoosiers are not a great team nationally, but are a decent squad with a solid pitching staff (more on that in the next section). Michigan instead clobbered IU's pitching, sweeping the series with two run rule wins and outscoring the Hoosiers 32-8 on aggregate. That final game, played this past Sunday, means Michigan is on a 10 game win streak leading into this weekend's series in Evanston. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: takes on the season]

Well, it's a new season for Michigan Softball. After a disastrous (by the program's standards) season that saw the Wolverines miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nearly three decades, the page has been turned and year #2 of the Bonnie Tholl Era is upon us. It's a new team, albeit one with a lot of familiar faces. The season is getting underway at 10am (broadcast for the opener can be found here), so it's time to break Team 47 down and give them a proper introduction: 

The Roster

Pitching 

While the 2023 season represented a steep decline in pitching compared to the 2022 or 2021 teams, it was still a stronger area of the team than the hitting side. The team ERA of 2.91 was not what you want if you hope to be a high level competitor in NCAA Softball, but the good news is total continuity. Everyone is back and they've added through the recruiting class as well. The team's arguable best player is Lauren Derkowski, who went from a depth piece as a freshman to the team's #1 pitcher as a sophomore. Derkowski wasn't quite ready to be a high-major ace, but she is a pretty good pitcher, 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.0 K/9. Last year represented a big step forward in her development and if this Michigan team is to get up off the mat, they're going to need Derkowski to take that next step towards ace status. I think it's possible because I believe in Jen Brundage and the development curve for Derkowski has been following a neat schedule. 

Arguably a bigger need than Derkowski taking the next step is shoring up the pitching situation outside of her. Last year's #2 was Jessica LeBeau, a Kent State transfer who was a good but not incredible MAC pitcher and more or less looked like that after up-transferring to the B1G. Bonnie Tholl spoke at media day about getting LeBeau's form and confidence back to where she was in the first half of last season, which is a decent point. LeBeau hung in there against a swath of good and great teams in the non-conference, but then posted basically similar results against much weaker competition in the B1G, when you would have liked to see her bring the ERA down during that portion of the year. Her final two B1G outings, against Indiana and Minnesota, were particularly ugly and helped drive the nail in the coffin on Michigan's season. 

[Bill Rapai]

Getting LeBeau back to a more usable option is a goal for the staff, but I don't particularly think she'll ever have the chops to be an ideal #2. At the very least, Michigan needs to get her some insurance, because last year the depth beyond the 1-2 at the top of the rotation was abhorrent. UNC transfer Hannah George and one-time elite recruit Emerson Aiken contributed nothing out of the pen, as the two combined to allow 23 earned runs and 44 H in 23.2 IP last season. If Michigan had to go to either of those two, it was over and the game went from bad to worse. I don't really know if there's much hope for improvement... theoretically better results are possible given George's past at UNC and Aiken's recruiting profile but we're multiple seasons removed from that now and they drew scant mention at media day. 

More likely is the help comes from true freshman Erin Hoehn, out of Poseyville, IN near Evansville. Hoehn is listed as a two-way player, but she was mentioned in the pitching conversation by Tholl in her press conference as someone who could compete and add to the pitching staff as a true freshman. So, it seems like she'll get her shot. Hoehn was a touted recruit, for what it's worth, a 2023 MaxPreps First Team All-American and 3x Indiana All-State first team honoree. She posted a career 0.79 ERA in high school, so the credentials look good, but tough to know until she competes in the circle in a collegiate game. 

I should round this out by mentioning that Maddie Erickson is listed as a potential pitcher on the roster but we never saw her pitch last season, even while George and Aiken were getting teed-off on in mop up duty. Erickson seems poised to play a larger role in the offense, so at this point, it doesn't appear that she factors in majorly in the pitching equation. But you never know. In a perfect world Derkowski takes a leap forward towards ace territory, LeBeau is a bit better assimilated to B1G softball and is an okay second fiddle, while Hoehn comes in and adds effective innings, allowing her and LeBeau to share the remaining non-Derkowski innings based on matchups and daily effectiveness, limiting the George/Aiken exposure. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: hitters, schedule, big picture]