upon further review

Gratuitous Video of the Week: here's Will Campbell showing men of Thor who Thor really is:

More on him later.

Formation Notes: Michigan ran a lot of nickel against ND since ND ran a ton of three- and four-wide sets; this was usually an "even" front:

IE, both sides of the line are set up essentially the same way. You can see Thomas Gordon over the slot to the bottom of the screen.

When ND went to more conventional sets it was the 4-3 under. Here's an example you might recognize:

They also did their okie thing and nickel eff it, but you know about the latter from momentarily horrifying touchdowns.

Substitution Notes: much less rotation on the defensive line this time around. Roh and Black split time at WDE. Martin was almost always the nose. Van Bergen split time between three-tech and SDE, as did Heininger. Heininger also spotted Martin at the nose when he took a breather. Washington got in for a few plays; Campbell replaced Heininger late to excellent effect. Both were three-techs.

As you can see above, it seemed like Michigan had two different packages on the line:

• Pass rush: SDE Ryan / NT Martin / 3TECH RVB / WDE Black/Roh
• Run D: SDE RVB / NT Martin / 3TECH Heininger/Campbell/Washington / WDE Black/Roh Jake Ryan and Kenny Demens went the whole way at LB. The WLB was Desmond Morgan for the first four or so drives and then Brandin Hawthorne the rest of the way. Ryan also lined up at defensive end plenty when ND went to packages with lots of wideouts.

In the secondary it was mostly Avery and Floyd with Woolfolk rotating in from time to time. Kovacs and Robinson played the whole way at safety; Thomas Gordon got all but a handful of snaps as Michigan spent most of its time in a nickel package.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Morgan	11
Morgan starts and immediately gives up a play. Wood's headed straight up the middle of the field but Demens is there, unblocked. Martin(+0.5) was momentarily doubled and then gets the inside guy to release downfield. He then sets up inside of the G. That plus Demens means Wood has to cut outside of the Martin block and inside of Roh. Morgan(-2) fails to read the play quickly enough and does not get outside to stand Wood up in the hole. Have to get here if you're unblocked. If he's there Wood has nowhere to go and this is a no gain. Instead he's late, missing an arm tackle(-1) and sending Wood into the secondary for Kovacs to tackle.
M46	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	Morgan	5
Heininger at the three tech with RVB at the five, except this is an even front with Roh on the strongside. Michigan slants its line away from the play; Roh(+0.5) shoots under the TE quickly enough to bang the pulling G. He's not far enough upfield to stop him cold but does slow him up and prevent him from effectively blocking Morgan. I am not entirely sure but I think Demens may have screwed up here—usually when you see a slant like this both linebackers will flow over the top behind it. Instead Demens goes straight upfield, getting knocked out by a tackle releasing downfield. HOWEVA, Gordon is blitzing off the edge so maybe Demens is doing what he should and it's Morgan who is making the error by not getting inside to bounce the play to his force help. So I just don't know. I think this is Morgan(-0.5) because of the blitz, and he did fall off the tackle(-1), but Demens(-0.5) also comes in for a wag of the finger.
M41	2	5	Ace twins twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	N/A	Waggle out	Floyd?	21
Looks like the same slant. Roh(-1) is left unblocked on the end, sees the TE pulling across the line, and crashes down the line at said TE. He gets chucked to the inside as he releases into the route. Rees has no pressure on the corner and finds Floyd wide open for a big gainer. (Cover -2, Pressure -2, RPS -1) Either on Floyd for going deep when he had help over the top or Gordon for not getting over fast enough. I'd be guessing.
M20	1	10	Ace twins twin TE	4-4 under	Run	N/A	Iso	Martin	11
TE originally spread out before coming in as an H-back over the gap between Martin and Heininger. Both linebackers flow to to the wrong side a step as the RB takes a counter step before cutting backside. Heininger(-1) was easily kicked out of the hole and sealed. Martin(-1) is slanting, I think, and also gets blown out of the hole. Morgan(-0.5) and Demens(-0.5) both get blown up by ND OL on the second level, and Wood just shoots straight upfield. Yuck.
M9	1	G	Ace twins twin TE	4-4 over	Run	N/A	Yakety snap	--	0
Fumbled snap.
M9	2	G	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel over	Run	N/A	Quick pitch	Black	2
Eifert split out. Slightly, Michigan shifted towards him in case there is funny stuff. Morgan telegraphs his blitz, Rees checks. He checks to a quick pitch outside that takes advantage of that blitz(RPS -1). Black(+2) is left unblocked and starts charging up at the quarterback; on the pitch he changes direction impressively, gets out on the RB, and manages to tackle(+1) just as Wood crosses the LOS. Terrific individual play.
M7	3	G	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	7	Rollout out	Gordon	7
Michigan sends the house; Notre Dame rolls away from the pressure and towards the out route Riddick is running on Gordon; Gordon has to set up with inside leverage and has no real chance at doing anything with this. Cover -1, RPS -1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 9 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O17	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel under	Pass	4	Dumpoff	Morgan?	15
This director is very frustrating because his shots are all super-tight. You can see literally three yards downfield. Is this zone or man? I don't know. I believe it's zone given the reactions after the dumpoff. Problem: Morgan(-2, cover -2) takes off on a drag route as if it's man, opening up this stupid dumpoff for a big gain. No pressure(-1), either. On replay, definitely zone except for Morgan.
O32	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel under	Run	N/A	Pin and pull zone	Martin	-3
Martin(+3) gets under the blocker assigned to him and shoots into the backfield for a TFL. Roh(+1) had set up outside in good contain position, removing any chance of a bounceout. Heininger(-1) got clobbered, though it didn't matter. RPS+1 for the slant.
O29	2	13	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	N/A	16
Kovacs and Morgan telegraph a blitz; Rees checks out of it; Michigan does not check out of their blitz. The check is a power play to the strong side of the line, where there are two Michigan defenders and four blockers with the pull. RPS -2. Hopeless. Heininger(-1) makes things worse by getting destroyed. RVB(-1) flew upfield, opening a big hole. Demens is almost triple-teamed as a result. Wood can go to either side. Gordon has to keep leverage and heads outside; Wood cuts in. Robinson(-1) comes up hard, misses the tackle, and gets lucky that Wood is forced into Floyd.
O45	1	10	Shotgun empty	Nickel even	Pass	4	Out	Demens	6
Zone blitz sends Morgan and drops Black. This gets a free run for Morgan and does see Black cover Eifert effectively, but no RPS because ND has a hot route they hit. Demens is in man on Riddick; Riddick runs an out; he was lined up way outside of Demens; all Demens can do is tackle. It is possible Gordon was supposed to be in zone here but I think it's just a tough cover for Demens as Mattison tries to confuse ND.
M49	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Penalty	N/A	False start	N/A	-5
Why does ND always have at least two linemen with full-on Viking manes? I can't think of a team more likely to have hair sticking out of their OL's helmets.
O46	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel even	Pass	5	Drag	Kovacs	11
Washington in. Morgan(+1) blitzes and gets in clean, lighting up Rees as he throws (pressure +2), but Demens has been run off (cover -1) underneath and a short crossing route is turned up for 8 YAC. This is not Demens's fault—he actually did a great job of passing Floyd off to the safety. Kovacs(-1) is the culprit I think; two ND receivers jumped inside and he was the nearest available defender.
M43	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Pass	4	Bubble screen	Demens	8
Gordon(+1) does a great job of avoiding a cut block and is right there; Demens(-2) is flowing from the inside. He overpursues and lets Floyd back inside of him when the two of them had him pinned for a minimal gain. (Tackling -1)
M35	2	2	Ace twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	6	TE In	--	13
Morgan and Ryan blitz and are picked up(pressure -2). Once that happens it's an easy matter to find the hole in the zone. Kovacs and Demens were the guys nearest but this is on the blitz not getting close to home.
M22	1	10	Shotgun empty bunch	Nickel even	Pass	4	Slant	Morgan	14
Morgan(-1) again telegraphs his blitz, Rees checks, Michigan does not check, and it's easy as pie to throw it where Morgan blitzed from (RPS -2.) It's a matter of picking the wide open WR. Mattison getting torn apart so far. Kovacs(-1) misses a tackle(-1), ceding another half-dozen yards.
M8	1	G	Ace Big	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	Ryan	5
Michigan still slanting these. Unlike Roh earlier, Ryan(-1) does not get underneath his blocker. He's kicked out. The slant isn't helping Heininger but he gets annihilated(-1). Big hole. Morgan(-0.5) gets pancaked, but he wasn't done any favors. Held down by safety help near the goal line.
M3	2	G	Ace Big	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Iso	Black	3
Same play they ran for 11 yards on the first drive. Black(-1) blown out by a double. Martin(-1) fights to the wrong side of his blocker; Morgan(-1) again goes with the counter step and again gets pancaked in the end zone. Demens(-0.5) can't do much. This is easy, yo.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-14, 1 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M39	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Trap?	Van Bergen	2
Hawthorne in. G pulls around Martin(-0.5) as the C kicks him upfield. Tough job to stay disciplined there but Martin could have done better. Hawthorne shoots the gap outside and misses but does get an arm on Wood, causing him to stumble. RVB(+1.5) fought inside a double and now gets in the way, forcing a spin; Demens(+0.5) and Kovacs(+0.5) converge to thump him down.
M37	2	8	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel even	Pass	5	Out	Floyd	Inc
Zone blitz sees both DEs drop off as the MLBs blitz and Kovacs comes from way back. Rushers get picked up and Rees has a guy wide open on an out for the first (pressure -1, cover -1, Floyd -1), but instead of throwing it at the WR he throws it in the direction of Floyd five yards deeper. That's a letoff.
M37	3	8	Shotgun empty	Nickel even	Pass	4	Drag	Hawthorne	Inc
Hawthorne(+1) sent on the same blitz Morgan was earlier, but he doesn't tip it off, getting in free right after the snap (pressure +2, RPS +1). Rees chucks it in panic. General direction of a drag that probably won't get the first down; turfed. I have a new respect for giving free rushers +1s after watching Morgan earlier.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-14, 14 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O14	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	Nickel over	Pass	5	Bubble screen	Gordon	22
Blitz from JT Floyd in the slot and ND bubbles right at it (RPS -1). Gordon gets a chuck in press man on Riddick, then disengages as Kovacs comes up. Riddick takes Kovacs. Gordon is now alone with Floyd on the edge. Floyd smokes him(-2, tackling -1) to the outside and turns a moderate gain into 20 yards.
O36	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel over	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	Martin	0
RVB(+1) stands up to a double right at the LOS. This allows Martin(+1) to read the pull and pull himself, getting into the hole. Demens attacks and gets there at about the LOS; he turns it inside but I think he got bashed out the hole and would have given up a lane if not for Martin. Black(+1) set up, chucked the DE, and dove at Gray's feet as he passed—he's actually the first guy to tackle(+1). Well done all around by the DL.
O36	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel even	Pass	5	Fade	Woolfolk	Inc
Hawthorne as a standup DE-ish thing and Ryan as an MLB. Blitz telegraphed? I don't remember this play. Survey says... yes. Ryan blitzes, Hawthorne drops into coverage, ND picks it up. Rees wants Floyd on a fade covered by Woolfolk. Woolfolk(+2) is step for step and uses his club to knock the ball away as it arrives. Robinson(+0.5) was there to whack him, too. (Cover +2)
O36	3	10	Shotgun empty	Okie	Pass	3	Hitch	Kovacs	Int
Massive coverage bailout: the one that worked. ND rolls away from pressure that doesn't exist and still lets the backside DE roar in free. Rees has a timer in his head and needs to chuck it; he does. Kovacs(+3) backs out into a zone, reads the roll and the QBs eyes, and undercuts Floyd to intercept. Only problem: Eifert is wide open in the seam for a touchdown. Um (cover +1, RPS +1). I guess. Picture paged by dnak438.
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-14, 11 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O24	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Pass	4	Screen	Black	Inc
Black(+2) reads the screen, gets upfield, shoots out on the running back, and tackles him as Rees turfs the ball. (RPS +1, cover +1)
O24	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Run	N/A	Draw	--	20
Michigan shows the okie package on second and long; Rees checks, Michigan does nothing, and even after it's like “they called a play where they think we have no MLBs,” they still drop Mike Martin into a zone like it's third and twenty. Black did try to stunt inside and get crushed to the ground, so that's a -1. Everything else is on Mattison here. RPS -3. Little chance to defend this. I do wonder if the draw defense here was supposed to be Fitzgerald plunging down the line from outside.
O44	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Pass	4	Fade	Avery	Inc (Pen 15)
No question about this. Avery shoves Floyd OOB on a very catchable fade (-2, cover -1).
M41	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel press	Penalty	N/A	False start	--	-5
I bet they all saw “Thor” on opening night.
M46	1	15	Shotgun trips	Okie	Pass	5	Tunnel screen	Fitzgerald	3 – 15 Pen
Michigan drops a couple linebackers and sends five. The blitz prevents any ND OL from getting out just because they're getting blocked, essentially, and Fitzgerald(+0.5) just has to form up; RVB(+0.5) tackles from behind. RPS +1. Thor gets a personal foul.
O43	2	26	Shotgun 3-wide	Okie	Pass	5	Fade	Floyd	26
Floyd on Floyd action. Floyd(+1, cover +1) has excellent, blanketing coverage on Floyd but the back shoulder throw is perfect and his hand is a half-second late. Floyd stabs a foot down and Floyd can't do much other than ride him out of bounds. Sometimes you just have to tip your hat. This is one of those times. That is hard. That is why Floyd (not our Floyd) is going to be rich in about nine months.
M36	3	In	Goal line	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Dive	Hawthorne	In
Linemen just fall all over each other, leaving Hawthorne(+1) to leap over the pile with beautiful timing and nail Wood in the backfield. Could be a stop but Wood does burrow for the first. Refs got this spot on the money.
M36	1	10	Ace twin TE	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	Heininger	5
Heininger(-2) crushed out of the hole. He has to take the double there; he does not. He gets sealed instantly and in one motion the T is out on Hawthorne. LBs have blockers in their faces. Demens(+0.5) sets up well and gets Wood to commit inside, then pops off and falls backwards and causes Wood to fall; Hawthorne(+0.5) had taken the hit and gotten playside. Not heroic work but they held this down without involving a safety despite both getting blocked.
M31	2	5	Ace trip TE	Base 3-4?	Run	N/A	Down G pitch	Demens	3
Ryan(-2) is on the edge against three freaking tight ends and doesn't try to not get sealed. He's not even slanting. He rushes straight upfield, gets sealed by Eifert, and doesn't delay the puller. Hawthorne(-0.5) is on the LOS inside of Ryan and meets the same fate. Hard to blame him. Floyd sets up outside to force it back; Demens(+2, tackling +1) is running his ass off to beat the blocker coming out on him and catch Wood. He does just as Wood tries to break outside of Kovacs(+0.5), who had taken on the last TE and gotten outside all textbook and stuff.
M28	3	2	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Penalty	N/A	Delay of game	--	-5
Brian Kelly thinks he's coaching basketball yo.
M33	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel stack	Pass	4	Out	Avery	15
Avery on Floyd; I think Floyd pushes off here to get separation but there is no call. Avery -1, cover -1.
M18	1	10	Shotgun 2TE twins	4-3 under	Pass	5	Rollout dumb	Floyd	Int
Rees goes “FLOYDFLOYDFLOYD” and throws it to him despite Floyd having three defenders around him, one directly in front of him. JT Floyd(+2, cover +2) picks it off.
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-14, 5 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
50	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Pass	4	Slant	Avery	12
Play action fake with a pull does suck Hawthorne(-0.5) out of position, but it's hard to not suck up given what's been happening. The bigger problem is Avery(-1.5, cover -1, tackling -1), who has no other threats than Floyd and would be fine if he just tackled on the catch here. He doesn't; Floyd breaks the tackle and turns five yards into a first down.
M38	1	10	Ace twins twin TE	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Down G pitch	Black	3
Black(+1) slants inside the TE assigned to him, getting into the backfield. He draws one of the pulling OL and cuts off the outside, forcing a cutback. The TE peels back to try to deal with him and then thinks better of it. Wood cuts inside the Black engagement and would be in trouble if Heininger(-1) hadn't been completely handled by one-on-one blocking. If Heininger is just okay here this is no gain. Instead he's crushed, leaving a gap. Hawthorne(-0.5) was cut as well but gets up crazy fast; Demens(+1) avoided his cut and fills to thump.
M35	2	7	Ace twins twin TE	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Iso	Heininger	2
Good fightback from Heiniger(+1.5) here. He takes a one on one block and gets playside. This is definitely not supposed to happen since the H-back is running straight at this gap. Heininger is there; H-back runs into him. He holds. Running back now hits the pile; he starts to yield a little bit. He's still taken on two blockers and forced a bounce. An unblocked Demens(+0.5) is in the right place to lead the tacklers.
M33	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Okie	Run	N/A	Draw	--	12
Same thing that went for 20 on an earlier drive, with Martin backing out into a zone as ND runs a draw right at it. It's even worse this time as there is no one in the center of the field not dropping into a zone. RPS -3.
M21	1	10	Ace twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	4	Rollout throwaway	--	Inc
Good coverage(+2) causes Rees to throw it away as he nears the sideline.
M21	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	5	Fade	Van Bergen	Inc
They back out the MLBs this time and send the DL plus the OLBs. RVB(+1, pressure +2, RPS +2) is instantly past the G assigned to him because of a poor pickup; Rees chucks a ball off his back foot that's not catchable. Eifert gives it a go, though.
M21	3	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Pass	4	Slant	Gordon	Inc
Gordon(+2, cover +1) gets an excellent jam at the line and disrupts the route. I think this was destined for the slot but it could have been Floyd. Throw was less awful if it was the slot.
Drive Notes: FG(38), 7-17, 1 min 2nd Q. Greg Mattison's getting a little fancy here.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Ace twin TE	4-3 over	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Roh	4
Heininger out, Campbell in. I think Mattison knows Heininger has been getting manhandled. ND tries to run at Campbell; his(+0.5) response to a double is to burrow his way straight upfield. This does occupy two blockers for the duration of the play but I'm a little worried he went too upfield and didn't go down the line. This is still better than Heininger's output. Roh(+0.5) is also doubled and manages to split it after giving ground. This forces the RB outside, where Hawthorne can flow; Roh couldn't tackle but his penetration robbed the G of any ability to block Hawthorne. Would like Hawthorne to get to the hole quicker to hold this down a bit.
O24	2	6	Shotgun 2TE	4-3 under	Pass	4	Quick out	Floyd	7
Martin(+1, pressure +1) beats the center and threatens Rees up the middle. Doesn't matter because Floyd(-1, cover -1) is in the parking lot on a quick out for Floyd. Way too easy.
O31	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Iso	Martin	19
TE as H-back and lead blocker. Martin(-2) is clubbed, getting hit by a single momentary double and then sealed away by one guy after the G releases downfield. RVB(-2) gets upfield and is pancaked. Linebackers really have no chance here. Floyd(-1, tackling -1) is in overhang mode; he misses a tackle near ten yards and Wood ends up picking up 10 more.
50	1	10	Ace 2TE twins	4-3 over	Penalty	N/A	False start	--	-5
I bet they're all drummers, too.
O45	1	15	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Pass	N/A	Bubble screen	--	8
Tough to defend as aligned(RPS -1), with Woolfolk bailing out and Gordon trying to hold his ground at about five yards getting blocked. Gordon does force it back inside, where Demens and MRobinson tackle.
M47	2	7	Shotgun 2TE	4-3 under	Pass	5	Hitch	Floyd	6
Heininger back in; they've flipped him to SDE with RVB at three tech. Hawthorne blitzes and is picked up (pressure -1); Rees hits Floyd on a hitch near the sticks in front of Floyd. Floyd probably gets the first down if he doesn't fall, but he does fall, so he doesn't. (Cover -1)
M41	3	1	Ace twin TE	6-2 Bear	Run	N/A	Iso	Van Bergen	-2
Bear? Why the hell not. This is a line of six dudes across ND's line with the DL shifted one way and two linebackers lined up above SDE Heininger. Demens is the lone LB; Kovacs also ends up in the box at LB depth as Eifert motions in. RVB(+2) blows through his blocker and is into the backfield; Ryan(+1) blitzed untouched from the outside; Martin(+1) avoided a submarine block from the center and leapt into the path of Eifert up the middle, allowing Demens(+0.5) to charge through the gap unmolested and finish off the tackle RVB and Ryan started. RPS +3; big big stop.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-17, 10 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O32	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Counter	Ryan	38
Man, we suck at counters. This one is tough as Michigan has just six in the box against six blockers. Ryan(-2) plunges down the line and get annihilated by the RT. He is gone, he is being shoved into Martin, game over for the DL. Hawthorne(-1) sucked up to the LOS and gave the C a great angle to block him. I would be interested to know why Mattison doesn't key on OL pulls. There's got to be a reason. Anyway, with Hawthorne and the DL out of the picture, Kenny Demens(+1) is one on one with the pulling OL in acres of space. He sets up inside, realizes Gray is going outside of him, gets out to force a slow-down and cut-back, then gets plowed. Valiant effort there. Marvin Robinson(-3) then turns ten yards into many more by losing leverage. Kovacs had this covered at the sticks if Gray does not get outside.
M30	1	10	Ace 2TE tight	4-4 under	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Ryan	0
Excellent work by the entire DL here, as they flow down the line in textbook fashion. Martin(+1) controls the center and drives him back, flowing. Campbell(+1) takes a double but stays playside of it and occupies both blockers for the whole play. Ryan(+2) dominates the TE assigned to him, not only driving him into the backfield two yards but shoving him into Martin's lineman; Woods has nowhere to go except up his blockers' backs. RVB took a double too; he gave ground but it didn't matter. Wood then puts the ball on the turf; Campbell recovers.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-17, 7 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	MRobinson	24
Simply untenable, this. RVB(-2) shoots straight upfield. He does bump a puller and delay him, but he falls to the ground and is useless. Martin is on the backside and wasn't going to be able to do much but now he's totally out of the play. Black(-2) locks in with Eifert and then makes a critical error: instead of bulling him back and stringing the play out he attempts to disengage. He gets playside but gives up two yards of penetration and gets way too far outside in the process, now getting caught up with Hawthorne. Then he falls. Big cutback lane. Robinson(-2, tackling -2) whiffs so bad he hardly slows Wood, turning a nice gain into a huge one.
M47	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	Nickel under	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Black	0
Floyd(-1) telegraphs blitz, no check. ND runs away from it and might have a big gainer if they can get the edge sealed. This time Black(+2) stands up, chucks Eifert inside of him, and pops up on the edge a yard into the backfield, forcing a cutback. Martin(+0.5) has flowed down the line to cut off the immediate cutback and Demens(+0.5) comes in from behind to tackle.
M47	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Okie	Run	N/A	Delay	Demens	5
Michigan sends Ryan and Kovacs from the outside while dropping Demens and Hawthorne back to linebacker depth. This initially fools the LT, who ends up having to chase Demens(+1) as he scrapes to the hole to tackle. Demens ends up missing the tackle because the OL blocks him in the back (refs -1); Martin(+0.5) set up well and came off a block to finish the tackle. Should have been two yards or negative ten, but that's life. RPS +1
M42	3	5	Shotgun trips TE	Nickel even	Pass	5	Rollout out	Floyd	16
Floyd(-2, cover -2) gets killed on this little rollout out. Giving up the first down is one thing. Getting so far out of position on a five yard out that you can't even miss a tackle until the safety comes up and the WR has to delay is another. Easy.
M26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Van Bergen	-4 (Pen +10)
M waits to tip its blitz until after the check, getting Gordon(+1, RPS +2) in off the edge on the playside. Michigan slants under the zone blocking and RVB(+1) gets through to tackle immediately on the cutback Gordon forces. Heininger(-1) erases all of that by yanking an ND OL by the jersey as he's cut to the ground.
M16	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Pass	5	Fade	Floyd	Inc
Floyd(+2, cover +2) in press here and stays step-for-step with Floyd on the fade, breaking it up as it arrives. Fade is not well thrown, which helps.
M16	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 two deep	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Demens	1
Three man line with Ryan as a Crable DT; they send him and Demens at the same gap. ND runs away from it. Trouble? Maybe. Martin(+0.5) and Heininger(+0.5) flow away from the blitz against single blocking and hold up; Demens(+2) keeps his head up, reads the play, gets into his blocker, and then releases down the line to tackle.
M15	3	9	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 two deep	Pass	N/A	Drag	Van Slyke	15
Three man rush leaves Rees all day(pressure -1) but does force a checkdown. Slot WR is running in front of Van Slyke(-2, tackling -1), who's too far behind to do anything but make a desperation dive that does not bring the WR down. That's the first down; the TD is mostly due to a stellar block by an ND WR that cut off three guys.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-24, 2 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O10	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel even	Pass	5	TE out	Hawthorne	Inc
Herbstreit is now circling our telegraphed blitzes. Rees is still checking out of plays. This time it's Kovacs rolling up and blitzing; ND rolls away from it. Rees seems to have a WR open but goes to Eifert, who is blanketed by Hawthorne(+2, cover +2). Hawthorne comes over the top to break it up. Impressive.
O10	2	10	Ace twin TE	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	Hawthorne	8
Van Bergen(-1) is battered out of the hole but Ryan(+0.5) sets up right this time and Demens(+0.5) scrapes to hit the lead DE at the LOS. Narrow gap for the tailback that should be filled by Hawthorne(-1) but isn't because he shuffled to the LOS instead of flowing over the top and allowed the C to block him. Picture paged.
O18	3	2	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	Hawthorne	-2
Same play. Michigan sends Hawthorne on a blitz this time. RVB(+2) shoots upfield, getting his blocker in trouble and picking off a pulling G. He is surging through both these guys two yards in the backfield as Wood approaches. Ryan(+0.5) again sets up well on the edge. Wood is going to try to bounce, which will test Ryan severely because Demens(-0.5) is not in position to bounce with him. Moot, though, as Hawthorne(+2) has zipped through the crack provided by the pulling G and tackles for loss. RPS +2.
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-24, 13 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O40	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Pass	4	PA TE drag	Hawthorne	5
Rees goes play action and then finds his tight end for a moderate gain. Hawthorne tackles immediately. Pressure was getting-there-ish, coverage was okay, throw could have been better... this is average all around.
O45	2	5	Ace	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Campbell	2 (Pen -10)
Campbell(+1!) bowls over the backside G. RVB(+1) has cut through his blocking on the frontside, which forces a cutback. Campbell might have as shot at a TFL but is held, allowing the RB past; Demens(+1) reads and slices through a gap to make an ankle tackle as Wood gets to the LOS. Black(-1) got blown up and pancaked by Eifert on the backside, which is why this became dangerous.
O35	2	15	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel even	Pass	3	Tunnel screen	Black	0
Hawthorne sent; Black drops off. Think Rees puts this too far outside but Black(+2) takes advantage. He's chucking a TE on his drop who turns into his blocker; Black shucks him and tackles Floyd at the line. (RPS +1, tackling +1)
O35	3	15	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Pass	4	TE post	--	21
No pressure(-1) on a four man rush allows Rees to step up and sling it in a very small gap between Hawthorne and Demens(+1); this is good coverage(+1) that Rees beats with a fantastic throw. Demens was right there, man.
M43	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel spread	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Gordon	2
Hawthorne split out in man and I think this baits ND since it looks like Demens is the only LB. On the snap, Gordon blitzes and the line slants. RVB(+0.5) gets some penetration and Wood cuts back. Gordon(+0.5) is there to contain; Demens(-0.5) gets too far outside and doesn't provide a thump to hold this to one yard. RPS +1
M41	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Pass	5	Slant	Ryan	11
ND is taking a long time to get their plays called and M takes advantage, sending Gordon and Demens and dropping off Ryan. This is almost deadly. Rees hurries his throw and it's right at the zone Ryan(-1, cover -1) is dropping into except he's too far into the flat, so instead of going right to him it passes just by his outstretched hand. He drops properly and we could be talking pick six. (RPS +2)
M30	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	3-3-5 two deep	Pass	5	Slant	Woolfolk	8
ND runs double slants and Woolfolk(-1) is beaten to the inside; he does tackle immediately. (Cover -1)
M22	2	2	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel even	Pass	5	Fade	Avery	Inc (Pen 15)
Kovacs rolls up; check. They take advantage of the man to man to take a shot at the endzone. Avery(+1, cover +1) is right in the WR's face as the ball comes in; it's low and to the outside and Avery can't do anything about the futile one-handed stab the WR makes, but it's a futile one-handed stab. Avery is hit with a terrible PI flag (refs -1)
M7	1	G	Ace twins twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	6	DERP	DERP	DERP
DERP. Michigan had blitzed and gotten Black(+1, pressure +1, RPS +1) in Rees's face so if this goes forward it's almost certainly getting batted anyway.
Drive Notes: DERP, 21-24, 6 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Ace twins	4-3 under	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Campbell?	3
Campbell does okay with a double but only okay and starts getting shoved back. ND RT releases downfield into... no one. Weird. I guess I have to give Campbell +0.5 since one of his guys was probably supposed to get Hawthorne. Hawthorne is now unblocked so he is headed to the frontside gap; Wood cuts behind. Demens(+0.5) and RVB(+0.5) combine to tackle.
M23	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	4	Out	Woolfolk	6
No pressure(-1); easy throw for Rees as Woolfolk is in man. No minus here since it's a six yard completion with an instant tackle. That's kind of a win for the cornerback.
M29	3	1	Ace trips TE	6-2 Bear	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Ryan	-2
Credit could go to either Ryan or Campbell. Campbell(+2) destroys the RT. He gets under him and pancakes the dude. He dead. This constricts the hole and picks off the pulling TE. Wood has to take it inside slightly, where Ryan(+2) blazed past the other tackle on an outside blitz and took a perfect angle to Flying Squirrel Tackle Wood; Demens(+0.5) was there to clean up if necessary. Either Ryan or Campbell was enough to stuff this. Both and you look dominant. (RPS +3)
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-24, 2 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O39	1	10	Shotgun empty	Nickel even	Pass	5	Fade	Floyd	Inc (Pen 15)
Hawthorne(+1, pressure +1) gets a free run at Rees so he chucks it to Floyd, Floyd(-2, cover -2) is beaten instantly and starts yanking the jersey in a desperate bid to not be an instant goat.
M46	1	10	Shotgun empty	Nickel even	Pass	3	TE In	Demens	12
All day (pressure -2) on a three man rush; Rees patiently waits until he finds Eifert for a first down. Demens right there to tackle.
M34	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel even	Pass	3	Rollout out	--	5
No pressure on the roll but lots of coverage(+1) in the area because of the extra defender means Rees has to check down for a few yards.
M29	2	5	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	6	Fade	--	Inc
Miscommunication between QB and receiver means pass is nowhere near anyone. Blitz was just getting home.
M29	3	5	Shotgun trips	Nickel eff it	Pass	3	Seam	MRobinson?	29
This has to be a bust by someone but it's also hugely risky in an area of the field where you have another ten yards before you can really start bringing the heat. It must be Robinson(-2), but this is such a ridiculously hard thing to ask this kid to do that an RPS -3 is warranted. Picture paged by dnak438.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-31, 30 sec 4th Q

So how was that?

I don't know, man.

I sentence you to death!

I'm already a condemned man.

I sentence your face to death!

Great. So Michigan gave up 31 points and 513 yards on Saturday. They acquired four turnovers, only two of which could plausibly be declared forced—the two fumbles were just ND players dropping the ball—and one of the plausibly forced also featured a hand-wavingly open coverage bust. Without Notre Dame literally handing the ball to Michigan they likely score between 37 and 45 points. Yeesh.

There is one major mitigating factor: drives. Notre Dame had 13. That's a lot, even more than last year's opponents averaged (12.4) during a time when every other play was a long touchdown. It's still tough to be encouraged when the opponent threw for 8.1 YPA and ran for 6 YPC.

But Notre Dame's offense is really good!

This I buy. Eifert and Floyd are a hell of a receiving combo, their line consists entirely of veterans who Michigan would have loved to have, Brian Kelly is an established offensive super genius, and I love Cierre Wood. If Rees ever stops turning the ball over they could rack up some silly numbers. Big if given Rees's tunnel vision for Floyd, granted.

A quick glance at the schedule suggests the only offense that looks anywhere near as talented is at—ugh—Michigan State. If your line coming out of this game is "this is the most talented offense we'll face," I'm inclined to agree given the dodgy nature of the State offensive line.

And we got a lot better late!

Also true, but first let's get some context, let's get—

WILLCAMPBELLCHART

He does make an appearance.

SAY IT

Will Campbell chart.

SAY IT LIKE YOU MEAN IT

WILLCAMPBELLCHART

SUFFICIENT

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Van Bergen	11	6	5	Two huge plays on third and short pull him above average.
Martin	9	4.5	4.5	Had one trademark slash for TFL, was otherwise kinda eh.
Roh	2	1	1	Do something!
Brink	-	-	-	DNP
Heininger	2	8	-6	Consistently blown up by single blocking.
Black	11	5	6	Made a lot of plays on the edge.
Campbell	5	-	5	Please be real.
TOTAL	40	24.5	15.5	Decent but the "pressure" metric below is a downer.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
C. Gordon	-	-	-	DNP
Demens	13	4.5	8.5	Twelve tackles and few errors.
Herron	-	-	-	DNP
Ryan	6	6	0	Had some trouble holding up on the edge when asked to slant
Fitzgerald	0.5	-	0.5	About two plays.
Jones	-	-	-	DNP
Evans	-	-	-	DNP
Beyer	-	-	-	DNP
Hawthorne	6.5	4	2.5	Alternated nice plays, coverage, with slow reads.
Morgan	1	7	-6	Yanked. Back problem time?
TOTAL	27	21.5	5.5	Can Hawthorne hold up?
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Floyd	5	8	-3	Good PBUs deep, couldn't keep on the radar underneath
Avery	1	4.5	-3.5	Struggled, but PI unfair.
Woolfolk	2	1	1	Limited.
Kovacs	4	2	2	Less explosive day, rarely blitzed, but didn't get beat.
T. Gordon	4.5	2	2.5	I like him.
Johnson	-	-	-	DNP
Robinson	0.5	8	-7.5	Lost leverage twice, blew deep coverage twice.
TOTAL	17	25.5	-8.5	FS play killing them.
Metrics
Pressure	7	13	-6	Front four not getting anywhere.
Coverage	17	18	-1	Good deep in press man.
Tackling	4	10	-6	Very poor day.
RPS	22	18	4	Big recovery late with third and short stops worth +8.

The defensive line generally emerged positive but throw in that pressure metric and it's a below-average day. No one is getting to the quarterback. Their big positives came when ND could not pick up third and short.

I struggled with what to do with plays like the Kovacs interception, on which I gave Kovacs a big plus and Mattison/coverage a small one. (Given Rees's rolling out the TE throw would have been tough.) The surprising net result: a positive RPS day after a lot of big minuses. That is due in large part to Mattison bringing out blitzes that stoned Notre Dame on third and short three times. Those are critical turning points that, according to the Mathlete, swung Michigan's run defense from –4 points above normal (PAN) in the first half to +4 in the second.

Would you like to debate the semantics of the word "sound"?

There's been some pushback (at BWS and also on twitter) on my declaration the defense is not "sound" after pointing out the various ways in which Mattison plus Michigan's inexperience yield a bunch of holes in the D. Some of this is my fault since I did not make it clear that when I was describing something as unsound it was the defense as a whole, not necessarily any individual play. I say this because of plays like this:

Is this a massive missed assignment that leaves essentially no one in the middle of the field? I suppose that's possible, but it doesn't sound like it:

Longer runs when Mike Martin dropped into coverage. How do you protect the middle of field? “The same blitzes that hit the quarterback from western -- [Notre Dame] obviously saw that and didn’t want that pressure to come at them, so what they did was check to a run whenever they saw that look. We have defenses that look exactly the same that are run defenses, and it’s the same thing. I called the pressure thinking it was pass, and in the back of my mind, I’m thinking I should have called the pressure for the run because maybe they’re going to do that, and sure enough they did do it. And the next one they ran it on third-and-seven. If a team’s going to run it on third-and-seven, you aren’t ever going to pressure if you’re worried about it. And some of the overloads on both sides -- they aren’t great run defenses.”

Sometimes Mattison runs sucky run defenses on second and ten. Sometimes he calls plays where there's no one deeper than five yards and would like a true sophomore in his first extended playing time to cover not only the deep middle but a seam route he's not even looking at. Sometimes he asks the WLB to run hash-to-hash with his back towards the QB and then do something about a seven-yard hitch. Are these plays sound? Maybe some of them are… on paper. In practice the kinds of zone blitzing Mattison uses give certain defenders massively difficult tasks.

Is that sound? Yes, technically, but only technically.

I don't have a problem with this, by the way, since it's the equivalent of taking over Michigan's 2008 offense. Do whatever you want. Caviar dreams appreciated.

Do we have a weakside linebacker?

I think we might. Desmond Morgan got a shot and looked like a true freshman. He tipped his blitzes, failed to scrape to the hole despite being unblocked, and had at least one instance in which he did the "I'm in man, everyone else is in zone" thing we saw too frequently last year and from Herron in the opener. Sad fugee faces.

Then Hawthorne came in, and while he had his errors he also flashed impressive coverage skills…

…and the ability to Ian Gold his way into the opponent's backfield:

[update: wrong video. fixed.]

The sample size is small but in retrospect that practice where everyone freaked out because Campbell wasn't starting, then breathed a sigh of relief because Brandin Hawthorne was in there at WLB so it couldn't have actually been the first team defense, was prescient. Hawthorne leapt to the top of the depth chart in the aftermath of his performance and will likely stick there until Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa test him down the road.

Do we have a three tech?

Come on, baby. It eventually became clear to Michigan's coaches that Will Heininger was a problem on the interior and they started rotating other options into the game. Quinton Washington got a few snaps and didn't do anything of note. Will Campbell, though, not only features in the above Gratuitous Video but a couple other instances where he all but threw Notre Dame offensive linemen into the ballcarrier. Here he's held!

By the end of the game he'd racked up a +5 with no minuses. This came a week after WMU lit him up and he got promptly yanked.

What changed? Michigan's scheme probably helped. Against WMU they ran a lot of three-man lines with a nose tackle and a couple ends. Against ND it was all four-man lines in which Campbell was the three-tech. That makes him harder to double and apparently allows him to chuck a three-hundred pound redshirt senior like he's Sam McGuffie.

This almost can't be real, so let's say it's not. Likely scenario: Campbell is making some progress but needs to be constantly reminded of his technique, applied in limited situations in which he can succeed, and gets tired really quickly.

Do we have a free safety?

No. Best hope there is for one of the corners to take over at nickelback and get Thomas Gordon back there.

Do we have a weakside defensive end?

Maybe, but it's not the one people expected. Jibreel Black didn't get any quarterback pressure on his own but he still racked up a nice day thanks to athletic plays like this:

He's chucking tight ends out of his face and holding up on the edge (usually) and may have passed Roh. Now about that pass rush…

Heroes?

Kenny Demens was probably Michigan's best defender on the day, and when Campbell and Hawthorne's powers combined on the final four drives Notre Dame averaged 3.3 YPC on twelve attempts.

Goats?

Marvin Robinson lost leverage frequently and busted the final TD. Anyone covering Floyd on anything but a fly route was helpless, but that can't really be held against them. Morgan and Heininger were poor before being lifted.

What does it mean for Eastern Michigan and the future?

The next three weeks will be spent consolidating a starting position for Hawthorne, working out what Campbell's role can be, working on reducing the number of busts, and hopefully finding someone to play free safety. IME this has to be Thomas Gordon, so look for Blake Countess to begin rotating in as a nickelback so Michigan can develop the corner depth they'll want to keep Gordon at safety full time.

They could look okay by the end of that period. I'm extremely worried about the pass rush from the front four, though. I assumed that would be a strength and it has not been anything close. If they don't get more they'll be totally reliant on wacky blitz packages Michigan's transitioning defense clearly isn't doing a great job of executing. That will make for a  rollercoaster.

Gratuitous Video of the Week:

Formation Notes: The most interesting thing was Michigan's deployment of an unbalanced line on several plays to good effect. The PA FB flat and throwback screen both game out of the unbalanced line, as did a two-yard Hopkins power.

Substitution Notes: Barnum went the whole way in place of Schofield. Shaw, Smith, and Hopkins seemed to alternate snaps about evenly. Odoms got in for a little bit towards the end; other than that the WR rotation was about how it was.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M23	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel tight	Run	QB power off tackle	Robinson	7
It's Nix, not Cwynar in for the first snap, FWIW. Michigan runs at the left side off the line, pulling Omameh and using Shaw as a lead blocker. Molk(+1) and Barnum(+1) double Nix, blowing him off the line; Lewan(+1) handles Johnson by himself. ND is not exactly surprised by this playcall and has the intended hole full of bodies. However, Nix has started to flow hard and Molk(+1 again) has peeled off to kick out KLM, so there's a cutback lane... Molk then peels off KLM to get a third(!) block on the play. Safeties ten yards off the LOS come in to keep the gain down.
RUN+: Robinson, Lewan, Barnum, Molk(2)							RUN-:
M30	2	3	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel tight	Run	Zone stretch	Robinson	-3
Excellent diagnosis by Teo, who flows hard right into the intended lane. Shaw and Huyge both try to pick him off but he gets outside their blocks. Denard(-2) needs to cut his losses and cut behind this mess to pick up a minimal gain and a third and short; instead he tries to bounce it out. If he'd cut it up Nix had fallen (he is a battleship of a man) and he might have picked up the first. This is the kind of fast flow stuff that Michigan exploited last year. Didn't really do so this year. RPS -1. RUN-: Robinson(2)
M33	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Penalty	False start	Barnum	-5
Nerves from the debutant.
M28	3	11	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel press	Pass	Out	Grady	Inc
You can tell how scared ND is of Denard's legs. They rush four and have two linebackers flowing upfield right in the middle of the line, which opens up a huge gap for one of them to shoot. Instead they gingerly approach the line. Smith releases into a flare route that Fox belatedly realizes is his responsibility, he starts peeling out for it. Denard checks down to a three-yard out on third and eleven and throws it way upfield of Grady. He can't bring it in; even if he did this was zero yards. This is both a bad read and and inaccurate pass; this was a covered nothing route when he had full view of two linebackers in the middle of the field. A dumpoff to Smith had a much better chance of getting it done even without considering routes that are, you know, somewhat near the first down. (BR, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M23	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Base 3-4	Pass	Out	Grady	Inc
LBs very spread out because of the... uh... spread. One safety creeping up, another at about 12 yards. This is the same route Robinson just missed, and there's an ND safety flying up on it to tackle on the catch if it gets there. It doesn't, as it's batted at the line. (BA, 0, protection 1/1.) Can't really blame Lewan here because he has to pass protect; he can't just cut because this is not necessarily a screen.
M23	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read dive	Hopkins	2
This is our first indication that the zone read keeper is going to work all day. Michigan has Koger on the backside of the play; instead of going downfield he kicks out the backside OLB. Both MLBs flow hard to the playside. Denard(-2) should keep; he doesn't. If he keeps he's one on one with the FS for a big gainer. Since he handed off the blocking is five on five with Omameh(-1) doubling the playside DE instead of doing something about those charging LBs. Hopkins has to cut back and gets cut down by the backside DE, who Lewan(+1) had sealed away. Molk(+1) had blasted Nix way off the line, FWIW.
RUN+: Lewan, Molk							RUN-: Robinson(2), Omameh
M25	3	8	Shotgun 4-wide bunch trips	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Dumpoff	Smith	6
Good protection but Robinson can't find anyone. He checks down to Smith, who is immediately set upon by two ND LBs. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 7 min 1st Q. Robinson's second-down errors have killed both these drives.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Base 4-3	Pass	Waggle (sack)	--	-1
Yeesh. Waggle suckers this entire insanely aggressive ND defense and gets Denard on the edge being chased by a single DE. Moore was late getting out because he got caught up in traffic but is wide open. Also wide open is the corner. Denard should run, or throw. He should do one of the wide open things. Instead he points a little bit, then slows up as he nears the line, then stops, then is snowed under. Horrible. (BR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS +1)
M19	2	11	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB Iso	Robinson	14
Notre Dame defends this well, then loses contain. Mediocre blocks along the line provide smallish creases but nothing major; Omameh(-1) whiffs on Calabrese, who fills the cutback hole Denard was aiming for. Let's cut back further. Koger(+1) is still blocking the backside end after all this time; that end has started to give ground in case he has to pursue and gives up the corner. Hypothetical ND UFR guy just gave him -2. I give Denard +3 for making 12 yards on his own.
RUN+: Robinson(3), Koger							RUN-: Omameh
M33	1	10	I-Form Big Unbalanced	2	2	1	4-4 Under	Run	Power off tackle	Hopkins	2
ND essentially has nine in the box with a safety eight yards off the LOS and charging at the snap. Michigan has a bunch in the box, too I guess. Barnum(-1) pulls and I'm not sure because I'm no expert on power yet but it seems to me like his path to the hole takes too long. When he gets there Fox is already at his feet chopping his knees out. Maybe that's too harsh, since this contact is happening right at the LOS. Maybe not. Bear with me. I've yet to see any attempt to exploit the insanely aggressive ND defense with misdirection. RPS -1.
M35	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Pass	Screen	Smith	Int
ND rushes three and lays everyone else back so even if this is complete this is going to die immediately (RPS -1). Denard pumps, then tosses it over the head of Nix... and Smith... and into the arms of Gray. (INX, 0, screen)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-14, EO1Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M13	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	18
Reminiscent of a phase in RR's second year when shooting that TE backside was all the rage. Koger is lined up as an H-back and pulls across the formation as Denard executes the read. ND is so aggressive Michigan's inside zone blocking looks like they're blocking down on power with Koger the puller; Lewan(+1) blows Johnson down the line and Koger(+1) kicks out the OLB. Denard(+1) pulls, then hits the hole right next to Shaw. Johnson does a valiant job to shuck Lewan and almost get out, as does Teo, but Denard is too fast(+1) and hits the corner. This play does exploit the aggressive ND defense—suckering in Teo was key. Roundtree had a nice block downfield. RPS +1
RUN+: Lewan, Koger, Robinson(2), Roundtree							RUN-:
M31	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Rollout post	Hemingway	Inc
Looks like a pin and pull zone on the line, but there are WRs. This does erase the safeties(RPS+1) while getting Denard time. He's got Hemingway with inside position on a post route, which is the perfect situation to put up an arm punt and let Hemingway get it... but he misses by five yards. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M31	2	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Corner	Roundtree	Inc
A preview of the Great Gary Gray Garbage ExtravaGanza: dude just falls down after Roundtree fakes outside and then back to the inside. This is the WR equivalent of breaking someone's ankles on a crossover dribble. After a play action fake that does NOT suck the safeties in—contrast between this PA and the previous play is stark—Robinson sets up and hits Roundtree's corner. He zings it on a rope just out of Roundtree's outstretched hands. Live I thought this was a drop but on the tape it looks like it just glances off his fingers. Would have been a very tough catch. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
M31	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Robinson	3
ND moves a safety down into the box and sends a fifth guy. M picks up a looping stunt but the delayed blitz from the LB comes around and gets in; Denard has had some time but can't find anyone and has to roll out. Nowhere to go, he scrambles for a few. (TA, N/A, protection ½, team -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-14, 12 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O45	1	10	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Hopkins	2
ND super aggressive linebackers are super aggressive, submarining the FB Watson at the LOS and giving Hopkins nowhere to go. RPS -1. The blocking is fine. It's just that there's no way for this play to work if the FB is going to get cut-blocked a yard behind the LOS and Teo is going to flow over the top.
O43	2	8	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	Fade?	Hemingway	43
Ah, the first of the impossible to chart things. Hemingway comes in motion to the short side, causing ND to reveal zone. The FS bails at the snap, not even considering play action. ND rushes five against seven blockers and gets nowhere. Robinson has all year. He eventually sets up and chucks a... back shoulder... fade? Is that intentional? Can it possibly be given what we've seen earlier today? It is to the outside and upfield and Gray is nowhere near it as Hemingway spears the ball, so... results based charting service. (DO, 2, protection 4/4) Hemingway catches it at the four and lunges in.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-14, 10 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M18	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read dive	Shaw	-2
Same thing: ND sells out on the keeper and does not leave enough backside. Denard(-2) hands off and there's just no chance because both MLBs are shooting up in holes and there is no contain on Denard. If he keeps he's got Lewan crushing a guy, Koger blocking the backside LB, and he's one one with a safety. RUN-: Robinson(2)
M16	2	12	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Pass	Fly	Roundtree	Inc
ND rushes three and is stoned. Robinson pumps and then lets a sideline fly route go; way long. Robinson throwing a fly to Roundtree with nothing relevant. This is what I am saying by grab-bag: when this happened last year the pump was to a bubble they'd thrown several times. This year it's to nothing. Roundtree is covered well and the throw is long. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M16	3	12	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Rollout out	Hemingway	Inc
Michigan rolls the pocket; Smith cuts the OLB to the ground to give Denard enough time to throw. He forms up and fires to Hemingway, who he did identify in a window past the sticks. Unfortunately, it's a couple yards too far inside. He could have hung it up for Hemingway to get, but not this time. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, special commendation Smith)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-14, 4 min 2nd Q. M's next possession starts at the six with 1:31 left; they run the half out.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	39
They probably should have run this until ND stopped it. This is a virtual replay of the earlier zone reads: ND's linebackers are insanely aggressive and have already committed to the dive before the mesh point even happens while Koger peels off to block the OLB over the slot. There is no one assigned to Denard Robinson! Koger(+1) and Lewan(+1) do get blocks but this is just easy. Robinson(+2) for the read and the speed, Roundtree(+1) for good downfield blocking. RPS +2, though mostly because Diaco's kind of a twit.
RUN+: Robinson(2), Koger, Lewan, Roundtree							RUN-:
M49	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	4
Thirty Borgeses agree. This time Teo is slightly more responsible but has still ceded the corner to Robinson; the difference on this one is the FS, who is ten yards deep at the snap and flows downhill on the read fake. If you're running play action out of this, what happens? Does Robinson throw into double coverage? No. This is our assertion. Right here. RPS -1.
RUN+: Huyge, Robinson, Koger							RUN-:
O47	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	QB draw	Robinson	-6
Line sets up to pass block but doesn't actually do it at all. Molk(-2) gets beaten clean; Lewan(-1) and Omameh(-1) let Johnson into the backfield and don't try to, like, block him, until he's four yards upfield and right in Denard's path. I have no idea what they were trying to do here; it looks like they were maybe trying to go off tackle but then you kind of have to block the playside DE. RPS -2. ND gets an illegal substitution afterwards. RUN-: Molk(2), Lewan, Omameh
O48	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Hemingway	Inc
Four rushers and the fifth guy coming on a contain blitz. Barnum is driven way back in the pocket, which may contribute to an iffy throw. Throw is not on time and Hemingway is not particularly open but does have position on the DB to box out; throw is okay but a little low and Hemingway cannot dig it out. (CA, 2, protection ½, Barnum -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-17, 8 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 4-4	Pass	PA Deep Out	Hemingway	Inc
Zone read fake sucks up the linebackers and after the snap there are eight ND players within a yard of the LOS. Two of them eventually come through the line but it's too late; Hemingway has broken his route off and is wide open. Denard throws and hits him. Dropped. Throw could be a bit better but this is one you have to catch. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
M29	2	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 3-4	Run	Delay	Hopkins	3
Safeties are rolled up just inside the first down marker; Denard checks; ND safety backs off into a deep zone, then rolls right back to where he was. This is fairly well blocked but KLM does not get far enough upfield to open up a big hole. Johnson does on the backside and Omameh releases into the linebacker back there; a cutback is the play. Hopkins(-1) misses it. RUN-: Hopkins
M32	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Koger	11
Johnson gets out of his lane as he tries to rush past Molk, giving Denard a lane to step up into. As he does this Te'o sucks up, understandably; Denard rifles one to Koger for the first down. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2, Molk had this under control IIRC)
M43	1	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Post	Gallon	Int
The nadir right here. Play action on first down fools no one except Fox, who sucks up on it and falls down trying to re-direct on the wheel, leaving McColgan open forever. It is amazing how irresponsible these ND LBs are. Denard doesn't see it, instead throwing a post to a double-covered Gallon. It's easily intercepted. (BRX, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-17, 6 min 3rd Q. If Denard had looked for the FB this would have been a big +RPS, but he didn't.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Pass	PA Drag	Hemingway	77
Zone stretch fake into a rollout... should I not comment on Nix, the NT, getting reached and thrown to the ground by Barnum? No? Okay. Denard's looking, should dump it to Koger but doesn't, and then KLM is on him. He dodges the tackle, KLM latches onto him, and doom is en route. Denard throws a flat-footed pass 12 yards downfield that could not be better placed, and there aren't any safeties since Hemingway is free of Gary Gray. (DO+, 3, protection N/A.)
O6	1	G	I-form	2	1	2	Base 4-4	Run	Down G	Shaw	-3
Blitz off the edge gets a LB into the backfield before anyone can pull around. LB impacts puller three yards in backfield; slant under from below negates any cut inside. Barnum(-1) is the only player truly at fault. Shaw has to bounce and loses three yards. Nothing he could do there. RPS -2. RUN-: Barnum
O9	2	G	I-form Big	2	2	1	Base 3-4	Pass	Waggle (scramble)	Robinson	8
Not even ND's insanely aggressive LBs bite on this because it is bloody obvious (RPS -1). As a result everyone is blanketed and Denard(+3) is chased from behind. He makes a miracle happen to get down to the one.
O1	3	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	Run	Dive	Hopkins	1
Shaw as the I-back and he motions out. Hopkins will run the same dive M ran against WMU. ND is prepared for this and sends everyone at the dive, getting both linebackers to contact Hopkins as the pile forms at the 1. (RPS -1.) Hopkins(-2) fumbles; Denard picks it up and saves everyone a nervous fourth down. RUN-: Hopkins(2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-24, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O40	1	10	Shotgun 2TE twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Pass	PA sack	--	-5
Man, I still think they should be running the read. Teo is less nuts now but I'll take my chances. Instead they go play action and Fox blitzes. Barnum(-2) doesn't read it and lets him through to double a DE; Smith(-1) does not cut him on the run fake. Fox sacks. (PR, 0, protection 0/3) RPS -1.
O45	2	15	I-Form Big Unbalanced	2	2	1	4-3 over	Pass	PA FB flat	McColgan	15
I am in disbelief ND could be so dumb to let this work, but I think the unbalanced thing screwed them up. Still, Michigan's running for 2 YPC from under center and it's first and 15. ND's 55 picks up a hypothetical -3 by crashing inside and McColgan releases into epic space. Denard dumps it off and it's a first down. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +2). This was easy. Not much tonight has been easy.
O30	1	10	Shotgun 2TE twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	13
Pretty much the same story except now Teo is more responsible. He is not plunging right into the line. He stops and peels outside when Denard keeps but Lewan(+2) got an excellent block on KLM, forcing him down the line and causing Teo to stumble; Smith(+1) is now a lead blocker an finishes the job. Denard(+1) takes off for a first down.
RUN+: Lewan(2), Smith, Robinson							RUN-:
O17	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Down G	Smith	3
Barnum(+1) cuts Nix out of the play as Molk, Omameh, and Huyge pull around Koger. ND shifted late to put the playside DE in a two point stance and he gets immediately upfield, forcing a cutback and making Molk useless. Because of the Nix cut Smith does have a cutback. Johnson ends up chucking Koger(-1) away after defeating his block to both sides. RPS -1.
O14	2	7	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 3-4	Pass	Back shoulder fade	Gallon	14
Extra guy in the box, so one on one on the outside, Gallon vs Gray. So... like... what the hell do I do with this? Given Denard's accuracy earlier this may be a terrible read and a mistake. But it works. Is this brilliant? Lucky? Insane? I don't know. Since this is a results based charting service we will give the benefit of the doubt, and Gray did seem to have tough job given the timing and placement of the throw. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-24, 10 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M9	1	10	I-Form twins	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Deep hitch	Roundtree	15 (pen -5)
Four man rush with a contain guy. Robinson sets up and finds Roundtree with a dart between two zone defenders for a big chunk. Quality throw. (DO, 3, protection 2/2) Michigan picks up a hold on Huyge that is exceptionally weak. Not relevant to the play at all and not much of a hold, either.
M4	1	15	Shotgun 2TE twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	6
Okay, ND has adjusted. Calabrese shoots the backside gap and tackles Smith. Robinson's read this and pulled; Teo is scraping over and waiting. Lewan(+2) pancakes Johnson, giving Robinson a cutback lane. Cavalry arrives. (RPS -1)
RUN+: Lewan(2), Robinson							RUN-:
M10	2	9	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Pass	PA Post	Hemingway	45 + 15 pen
I was willing to give Denard the benefit of the doubt on the previous one but this is a throw into double coverage when he's got a huge lane in front of him that he can run up into for positively ages. It's underthrown and Hemingway high-points the ball but I can't condone chucking it up into double coverage. (BR, 2, protection 2/2) ND gets a terrible roughing the passer penalty after the play (refs +1)
O30	1	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 3-4	Pass	Fade	Gallon	Int
A terrible throw to a blanketed WR. (BRX, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 21-24, 4 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M42	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	QB power off tackle	Robinson	8
Omameh(-1) does not release downfield, instead doubling the NT that Molk has dealt with. God, Nix is such a tub. Huyge(+1) and Koger(+1) destroy Johnson; Smith and Barnum kick out guys who are maintaining outside leverage, forcing the play back to Teo. Denard(+2) WOOPs him and the safety who had come down, with help from Hemingway. A corner comes in to finish him.
RUN+: Koger, Huyge, Robinson(2)							RUN-: Omameh
50	2	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Pass	Post	Hemingway	Inc
Wide open post since ND again has a single high safety who is ten yards deep at the LOS. Hemingway wide open for 30; Denard misses him. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
50	3	2	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB power off tackle	Robinson	2
Molk(+1) chucks Nix to the ground again. Omameh(-2) again delays instead of getting out on Teo; Koger(+1) and Huyge(+1) flatten Johnson. Teo and Robinson meet at the first down line. I think this spot is accurate.
RUN+: Molk, Koger, Huyge							RUN-: Omameh
O48	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Pass	Corner	Grady	27
Rush four this time with man coverage and a single high safety. Grady breaks a corner route off and gets open against a safety—mismatch. Denard hits him in stride, allowing Grady to rip off some YAC. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O21	1	10	Ace twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Pass	Throwback screen	Smith	21
The dagger for these linebackers. No one is keying Smith and six ND players are hammering after Robinson as the entire left side of the line fans out to block for him. Robinson flips the ball to Smith and he turns upfield to see... well, he should see nothing but green except Lewan(-2) totally whiffed on the OLB. Smith(+2) cuts upfield past him, then heads back outside as Roundtree(+1) blasts the last corner infield. Touchdown. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-24, 1:15 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Deep hitch	Gallon	Inc
Omameh(-2) gets beaten and is lucky that he doesn't get called for a hold; he shoves the OL past Robinson and Robinson steps up. He finds Gallon open for 20 yards and misses him (IN, 0, protection 0/2, Omameh)
M20	2	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Wheel	Gallon	64
Better protection this time; ND does loop a guy around to flush Robinson up. As he's moving he finds Gallon open again, this time deeper, and nails him in stride about 35 yards downfield. Gallon rips off another 30 on the ground before being angled OOB. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O16	1	10	I-Form twins	2	1	2	Nickel	Pass	Fade	Roundtree	16
This is only an okay throw; if Gary can get his head around he's got a play on the ball. But he's Gary Gray. He's all interfering and such, not looking back, and Roundtree makes the catch anyway. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 35-31, EOG

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Yeeee.

Your enthusiasm is insufficient. I sentence you to death.

Look, man… it's just that… thanks to poker I have a model of the world in my head that holds two things as very different things: what happened and the likelihood of it happening. This remains a results-based charting service but that doesn't mean the charts are the be-all and end-all. They've always been useful guides but sometimes I disagree with my own numbers, for one. For two, results-based charting has always been an offshoot of the humility that comes from being amateur trying to figure out a very complicated thing. I'm not sure "chuck it up and hope" is that complicated.

As you'll note above, I did provide some credit to Denard/the offense for chucking it up. The diverse and sundry skyward heaves:

1. Hemingway 43-yard touchdown: dead on
2. Roundtree fly route: inaccurate
3. Rollout post to Hemingway: inaccurate
4. Double-covered Gallon INT: bad read XTREME
5. Back shoulder fade for Gallon TD: dead on
6. Hemingway 45 yard double covered arm punt: bad read
7. Single-covered Gallon INT: bad read XTREME combos with inaccurate
8. Roundtree touchdown: catchable

2 DO, 1 CA, two IN, three BR, two of the X variety. I don't know if that's sustainable. For whatever reason, Denard's accuracy is in the crapper this year, so having him heave it to covered WRs is a 50-50 proposition. I mean, what happens when the guy defending them isn't "atrocious"?

In a lot of scouting circles, Notre Dame CB Gary Gray was considered a draftable prospect entering the year with a possible mid-round grade according to some. However, when watching him on tape this summer I didn’t really like what I saw then and I certainly didn’t like what I saw Saturday night vs. Michigan as Gray was victimized time after time vertically down the field. And it wasn’t’ the fact he struggled to keep pace, as he is a solid straight-line athlete. It was his ability to look, lean and find the football that was downright atrocious. And it doesn’t matter how good a defensive back’s coverage skills are, if he can’t find the football he’s never going to make plays, which is my biggest fear concerning Gray as he looks nothing more than an “athlete” free agent at this stage.

What would the results-based charting look like if we tried that against someone average instead of atrocious?

So why is it the offense's fault instead of Denard's?

The possibilities as I see them:

• The accuracy issues are a short-term fluke. Denard's only had a game's worth of opportunities to throw so far. People have bad games.
• Last year Denard was restricted to a set of easy, short routes that he could hit and is now being asked to do other things. IE: last year was a mirage because he just threw hitches.
• Denard is worse now for whatever reason. IE: he is legitimately regressing.

Hoping for the fluke explanation, but there seems to be some merit to Door B. He's a breakdown of passes in last year's Notre Dame game:

• Hitch: 9
• Flat, seam, bubble: 6 (one waggle FB flat!)
• Deep curl, flare: 3
• Tunnel screen: 2
• Post, corner, fly: 1
• Throwaway: 1
• Run around like Tate: 2

This is a dedicated short passing game that ran a ton of curl/flat. Denard completes 60% for 1 TD and no INTs, averaging 6.1 YPA. This year we've got the eight downfield chucks, two throws behind the line (8% of attempts) instead of 11 (over 28%), and a total lack of free touchdowns in the seam or hitches to stationary targets that worked well last year when Roundtree wasn't dropping them.

This is kind of sexy in the long term since it indicates that Borges is partial to bombing it downfield; in the short term it leads to things like nasty—

I don't want to see your chart.

Charts anyway. I've left common opponents from last year in, because it will be interesting to compare.

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR	DSR
2009, All Of It	1	7	6(2)	3(1)	4	4	-	-	?	44%
Notre Dame	3	25(8)	3(1)	4	1	-	4(1)	2	-	71%
Michigan State	4	14(3)	1	7(1)	1	-	-	2	2	68%
Iowa	1	11(3)	2	3(1)	2	-	1	-	-	64%
Illinois	4	9(1)	1	4	1	3	1(1)	-	-	60%
Purdue	2	12(1)	1	3	1	1	1	3	-	68%
WMU '11	-	6(1)	4	3	1	-	-	-	1	56%
Notre Dame '11	6	7(1)	1	6(1)	5	1	1	1	-	50%

Hello massively bipolar day and worst DSR since we crammed his entire freshman year together to get a single game. The number of throws were way down; the number of tosses into coverage and badly missed balls were way up. Why? Too early to tell.

Adding to Denard's tough day were a few bad decisions on the ground. On the first drive he could have cut it up on second and three for near first-down yardage; instead he lost three. It took him a bit to recognize that ND's linebackers had lost their minds, so he handed off for nothing gains a couple times on the zone read. He did manage a bunch of yards on the ground by being Denard, though, most importantly the Dance of Waggle Chicken Salad:

Mmmm waggle chicken salad.

As the season develops we'll get a better idea about whether this is momentary jitters, an adjustment to a new offense, or a straight-up limitation that needs to be gameplanned around. Survey says ask again later.

But his receivers sucked.

No. There was one drop and a couple of maybes.

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3	0	1	2	3
Hemingway	2	-	2/3	1/2	2	-	3/4	1/2
Roundtree	-	0/1	1/1	1/1	-	1/2	1/1	2/2
Odoms	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Grady	1	-	0/1	1/1	2	-	0/1	2/2
Gallon	-	-	-	2/2	-	-	-	4/4
J. Robinson	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dileo	-	-	-	-	-	0/1	1/1	-
Jackson	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Koger	-	-	1/1	-	1	1/1	1/1	1/1
Moore	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
Toussaint	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Shaw	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Smith	-	-	-	2/2	-	-	-	2/2
Hopkins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
McColgan	1	-	-	1/1	1	-	-	1/1

That's basically fine, better when you consider Gallon and Hemingway bailing Robinson out on jump balls. The receivers were a net positive.

The OL:

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Lewan	7	3	4	A couple impressive pancakes.
Barnum	2	2	0	Down block, pull around, kick out, etc.
Molk	3	2	1	JAG in power scheme
Omameh	0	6	-6	Inexplicably doubling DTs on outside power instead of getting to Teo on second level.
Huyge	3	-	3	Comboed with Koger effectively.
Schofield	-	-	-	DNP
Mealer	-	-	-	DNP
Moore	-	-	-	Still pretty anonymous in limited PT
Koger	6	1	5	Gave team lot of room outside tackles.
TOTAL	18	13	5	Couldn't run for crap unless ZR was pulling LBs out of position
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Robinson	15	4	11	The only thing M had going.
Gardner	-	-	-	DNP
Toussaint	-	-	-	DNP
Shaw	-	-	-	Hardly got a carry.
Smith	3	-	3	Screen weaving a game-changer.
Hopkins	-	3	-3	Welcome back to the doghouse
Cox	-	-	-	DNP
McColgan	-	-	-	One slamming block.
TOTAL	18	7	11	Just Denard again.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Stonum	-	-	-	--
Odoms	-	-	-	--
TRobinson	-	-	-	--
Roundtree	3	-	3	Very helpful on screen, couple of Denard runs.
Grady	-	-	-	--
Gallon	-	-	-	--
Hemingway	-	-	-	--
TOTAL	3	-	3	Eh.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	44	6	88%	Team 1, Barnum 3, Smith 1, Omameh 2

FWIW, I have the RPS as 10 – 14 = –4. Not quite enough exploitation of those LBs.

Getting a little concerned over here that the offensive line is being asked to do something it's not very good at even when there seems to  be an obvious reason to go back to the old well: a 340-pound nose tackle who's about as mobile as Woody Hayes. Sean Cwynar didn't play at all so this Nix battleship came in and fell over every time he was asked to move down the line. This seems like the perfect opportunity to zone stretch some dudes—and when they used stretch play action the backside G was usually throwing him on the ground—but we didn't get a single one all day. Thus Molk coming out of a game with a +1.

Misopogon already calculated this but it's something I was going to do anyway: runs from under center averaged 2.3 yards. Runs from the shotgun averaged 7.5. Small sample sizes apply; they are less small this time around.

What is your problem with the offense, buddy?

Mostly I miss the tender caresses of Rich Rodriguez, the moonlit walks we'd used to take as he described his decision to hire Greg Robinson's hair and have it run a 3-3-5 Greg Robinson's hair had never heard of, or his decision to recruit one OL in that one recruiting class, that a center, and lose 30% of his players a year in. I have no good reasons for thinking this and can be safely dismissed because I don't know what I'm talking about.

For my mother, the only person who can muster up enough love to keep reading this far: so the thing is, here's a screenshot. It's from the first play of what would eventually be Michigan's first go-ahead touchdown drive.

Denard's taken about two steps towards the line of scrimmage and all eleven Notre Dame players are within eight yards of the LOS. They are in man with no reasonable safety help. If Denard was to pull up and look for a receiver he'd have Odoms breaking open on a corner or post from the slot. This kind of thing didn't happen when Michigan went under center. Notre Dame did blow some stuff because their linebackers are stupidly aggressive; they were not forced to put every player they had level with the umpire.

Here's the next play, which is just a straight drop-back pass. This is a full two seconds after the snap:

You see that guy at the edge of the screen ten yards deep? That's the free safety. The deep middle is now ten yards. There are 100 seconds left! The free safety is ten yards off the LOS and Notre Dame is rushing three! This is the planet of Denard's legs!

Result:

A receiver wide open for 30 yards who Denard misses. This is easy. Two plays later ND will show a straight-up 3-4 on first and ten with one high safety and man coverage; Grady will break a corner route against man and Denard will hit him for major yards.

Michigan did not get much that was easy based on the structure of the offense. Te'o and Fox/Calabrese running headlong at anything that moved got them open FB wheels, those zone reads, and the Smith throwback screen, and then everything else was chuck and pray. It worked; I have doubts it is a tenable solution long-term.

This is not easy

Not easy

Not easy

The deep middle is 25 yards downfield on first and ten from under center. Yeah, all of Michigan's touchdowns came from under center. But they weren't, like, open except insofar as anyone covered by Gary Gray is open, nor was there anything about the structure of those plays that required playing from the I-Form—Michigan scored on a throwback screen to Martell Webb last year.

If you want to rely on Denard being able to diagnose and consistently throw back-shoulder fades against good, sometimes double, coverage, um… okay. I'd rather have him throw at the blitheringly wide open dudes. I think that the shotgun + Denard makes guys blitheringly wide open This is no doubt because I make my wife wear a Rich Rodriguez mask at night and not because I spent last year copiously documenting it.

Do you have an annoying disclaimer for us?

Yes. I spent large chunks of the offseason praising the coordinators and I'm not throwing that out the window after two games. There are a lot of things that concern me but these are not GERGs. I'm guessing we'll see things get figured out. God, this is tedious isn't it? Should I bother explaining things to the kind of people who see this as an attack on the coaches? Sure, I don't want Michigan to win anymore because Rodriguez is gone. That makes sense given the last six years of content here. Nevermind.

But Notre Dame's defense is really good!

I'm skeptical of that argument. ND finished 50th last year in standard yardage, 25th in FEI* and Bob Diaco is a weird guy. They coach their linebackers to be super aggressive, which is great when it works and stupid when it doesn't, like when a simple zone read with hardly a tweak opens up for big gashing runs. I suspect they might be vulnerable to misdirection all year.

*[If this sounds good in the context of 120 teams, it's in the Illinois-Iowa-UNC area, so… good, not great.]

So Bob Diaco is…?

I think not very good. His linebackers are incredibly irresponsible. You know about the two McColgan openings caused by linebackers not covering him and the zone reads where Teo flew upfield:

What you may not have noticed was that on two other zone reads where Denard handed off they did the exact same thing. This was the fifth(!) basic zone read where they had no one for Denard Robinson. Maybe they wanted the OLB to be the contain guy but dude was getting blocked. They did manage to adjust on the sixth one, though. Good job, Diaco!

This is how they did it:

By getting the free safety to tackle him four yards downfield. Which goes back to the earlier point, I think.

Heroes?

Denard. Also Hemingway, Gallon, and especially Gary Gray.

Goats?

Denard.

What does it mean for Eastern Michigan and beyond?

I've already given you my take above. They'll work on their stuff and try to get Denard more accurate and their tailbacks gaining more than two yards a carry out of the I, but when push comes to shove I don't think they really have a choice. We'll see.

Gratuitous video of the week: is obvious. Sorry about the weird audio delay. (Anyone know why compressing a ts file into a WMV would do this and how to fix it?)

Substitution notes: Massive in the front seven. After the first few plays there was no SDE; he was lifted for a safety. Martin, RVB, and Roh were frequently replaced by Heininger, Brink, and Black respectively. Campbell got a little time and didn't do well. The SLB alternated between Ryan and Beyer. MLB was Demens and Fitzgerald. Herron started at WLB and got most of the time; Mike Jones was the only other guy to draw in.

The secondary was consistent: Avery and Kovacs the whole way, Woolfolk until he got hurt then Floyd, Johnson after the first few plays until he was pulled in favor of Marvin Robinson late.

Formation Notes: Michigan's first few plays were in a 4-3, after which they lifted a defensive lineman for an extra safety (Johnson) and moved Gordon down to the nickel. Frequently they would put a nominal SLB, either Ryan or Beyer, in a three point stance as another down lineman.

As the game progressed, Michigan got more aggressive. This is what I called "Nickel press"—you can see the one deep safety with press coverage on the outside WRs and a 3-4 front. This was blitz-heavy:

And right at the end of the first half Michigan showed a something I called "Nickel eff it"…

…which was 11 guys within five yards of the line. This ended with Kenny Demens running straight up the middle at Carder both times it happened.

On passing downs we saw the return of Scot Shafer's "Okie" package, which is a two-deep shell behind a zone-blitzing 3-4 like so:

And that was it. Will be interesting to see what they do when ND tries to manball these guys.

Show? Show:

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O26	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	4	Bubble screen	Woolfolk	6
Michigan comes out in a 4-3 with no one over the slot receiver and WMU probably has an auto-check into a bubble. I can't tell if what Woolfolk does is good or bad: he comes up hard and gets cut easily. He does force the WR inside of him—over him, actually. He manages to leap up and grab his ankles as he passes. Still a good gain. (RPS -1. I guess +0.5, tackling +1 for Woolfolk. ) Martin(+1) had torn through the center and hit Carder on a bubble screen. I be like dang.
O323	2	4	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	4	Hitch	Herron?	3
Soft corner from Avery means Herron is stretched horizontally. He drops into the inner route, opening up a short hitch near the sticks. Should have been seven or eight but Carder's throw was upfield, taking the receiver off his feet. RPS -1, cover -1.
O35	3	1	Power I	Base 4-4	Run	N/A	Iso	N/A	2
This was the chaos play Blue Seoul noted. They did get set eventually in a 4-4 with six guys on the LOS, including Kovacs and Herron and Demens as MLBs. They run at the gap in the shifted line between Martin and Roh, doubling both. Both hold up; Roh manages to slide inside the LT and restrict the hole but can't get any penetration. He's kind of being held but no way they call it. Herron (-0.5) reads the play maybe a hair late or is lined up too deep, meeting the FB at the first down marker instead of the LOS. That's a stalemate and the RB can fall down across the line in a heap of bodies.
O37	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	4	Bubble screen	Woolfolk	13
First DL backups in; I won't be able to track the comings and goings efficiently, I don't think. Doesn't matter here. Michigan again aligns to give the bubble and WMU throws it. Ryan(+1) is tearing out at it quickly and may be able to hold it down for minimal yardage but Woolfolk(-2) commits the cardinal sin of the bubble screen by losing leverage and letting the play bounce outside of him. Ryan still almost gets him on the sidelines but does not make the play; Gordon escorts him OOB after the sticks.
50	1	10	Shotgun diamond	Nickel	Run	N/A	QB draw	Martin	2
Intended to go off tackle until a Michigan stunt gets Ryan(+0.5) and Martin(+0.5) enough penetration that Carder has to cut behind everything into the unblocked Black and RVB recovering from a cut. RPS+1
M48	2	8	I-Form twins	Nickel	Pass	4	Deep hitch	Herron	12
Michigan is in a quarters zone that has four guys in short zones, or three guys in short zones and Brandon Herron(-2) running man coverage on a shallow crossing route, opening up a hitch between Gordon and Demens that should be exactly where he's sitting. (Cover -1) Martin stymied by a double; Black had fought through the RB's block to provide some token pressure. Still (Pressure -1)
M36	1	10	Shotgun empty TE	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	5	Flare	Woolfolk	2
DL: Brink/Heininger/Black. Mike Patrick: “now they're back to more of a traditional look” instead of the odd stack they're in on this play. Michigan sends Ryan and Gordon and gets nothing, but this spooks Carder into a nothing dumpoff that Woolfolk(+1, tackling +1) reads and levels for no gain.
M34	2	8	Shotgun 2-back trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	N/A	Triple option dive	Demens?	9
Beyer in for Ryan. Unbalanced formation w/ covered slot. Michigan is ridiculously misaligned (RPS -2). Black charges upfield as the tackle releases and has to form up to respect the option. Beyer(-1) drops into coverage. Demens(-1) is originally lined up outside of the tackle and starts to come back inside but that just makes him a sitting duck: he's moving backwards as the OL impacts him and gives huge chunks of ground because of physics. Running back cuts behind him into gaping space because Beyer is still looking at the bubble screen.
M25	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	N/A	Tunnel screen	Gordon	1
This confusion might actually have helped M: they shift late with Woolfolk getting out on the outside receiver just as the snap is arriving. If they have an autocheck into this screen we may have dummied them into it. As a result the inside WR takes Woolfolk(+0.5), who does a good job to stand him up near the LOS, and the tunnel guy is running right into Gordon(+0.5). Gordon gets beat to the inside but slowly enough for the cavalry to rally. RPS+1.
M24	2	9	I-Form big	Nickel 4-3	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Demens	2
I think it's inside zone but might be wrong. Nickel personnel; Gordon as an OLB. RB takes the handoff to the side opposite to where the FB goes and will look to cut back. Martin takes a double and sits at the LOS. Gordon takes on G and gets annihilated but the RB cuts back. Probably a bad move. Demens(+2) is sliding playside, reads the cutback, and gets to the POA in a flash, making a diving tackle despite a lunge from the backside G, who fell trying to get out. He was supposed to be blocking Herron(-1), who ran so far to the playside that by the time the RB had cut back he'd passed Demens. I think RVB and Ryan are stunting and sort of think Ryan is doing a bad job but I'd like some outside opinions. This one is confusing.
M22	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	5	Deep hitch	Gordon	14
Michigan sends five, dropping RVB and Herron. This gets Gordon(-1) in clean (RPS +1, Pressure +1), but he takes an angle too far outside and slips. He should be in the QB's face leaping at him and forcing him to bring this down. He's not so Herron is given the tough job of hauling ass across the field to hopefully cover the slot on the other side of the play. He doesn't, and he gets a (-1) for running away from the QB and letting the pass get over his head. He will do this better later. I have Picture Pages to show it. Cover –1.
M8	1	G	Shotgun 2-back trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	N/A	Triple option dive	Demens	1
They figure it out this time with men tight over the WRs and one deep safety in an obvious run-prevent D as discussed by Blue Seoul. This time Ryan(+1) blitzes at the snap and drives past the G into the path of the RB; cutback. Demens(+1), now properly aligned, hits the LT while moving forward and pushes him back this time. Black(+0.5) forms up and crashes after the handoff; he and Demens tackle (RPS +1)
M7	2	G	Shotgun empty TE	Okie	Pass	5	Hitch	Johnson	6
RPS -2; Carvin Johnson(-3) leaves Avery on an island with two receivers. Avery(+1, tackling +1), does as good a job as possible in the situation he's put in, splitting the WRs and smashing the short hitch they complete short of the goal line. Too bad, too, because the blitz had gotten Demens straight up the middle untouched. Johnson aligning properly might make this a sack.
M1	3	G	Wishbone	Goal line	Run	N/A	Iso	Van Bergen	0
RVB(+1) times the snap perfectly, shooting through the G assigned to him and nailing the FB at the two. RB hits FB. Martin has made a pile at the one and the delay allows the massive pile of meat to not end up in the endzone. Whoah: actually, they messed up the handoff and Carder followed it up. Same result.
M1	4	G	Power I	Goal line	Run	N/A	Iso squared	--	1
They get it this time by running everybody on their offense straight up the middle.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 7 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O45	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Out	Avery	7
Jones in at WLB; they send him while dropping Roh. WMU picks it up and hits an out in front of Avery(-1, cover -1). No chance for the D to get there if it's going to be first read three-step stuff.
M48	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Run	N/A	Counter	Demens	25
Mattison is sick of this crap. Michigan goes into bump and run on the outside receivers and brings Kovacs into the box, leaving one-high. WMU gets a big gainer on a counter. Beyer(-1), unblocked on the backside, does not read the pull and rushes too far upfield. He's easily kicked out. That DE is critical on a power play like this; he needs to get into the puller and force a bounce or restrict the hole. He does neither. So it's a tough job for Demens against the pulling TE, but Demens(-2) pulls a Mouton by losing leverage. If he gets outside the blocker there's a decent chance RVB(+1) , who has given a little ground to get playside of his blocker, makes a great play to prevent this from going a long way. He'd have to do that because Johnson(-1) sucked up on the counter step and got lost in the wash. Picture paged.
M23	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Tunnel screen	Gordon	-2
Gordon(+2) reads, attacks, and destroys.
M25	2	12	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Pass	6	Fly	Floyd	Inc
Demens's delayed blitz gets him in free(pressure +1, RPS +1) but I wonder if he didn't time it quite right. Another step and Carder is seriously harried. As it is he gets off an accurate deep ball on Floyd's guy, who's got a step. Floyd runs his ass off, starts tugging jersey early, and... I'll be damned. He strips the ball loose(+2, cover +1). That was textbook. Gibson -1.
M25	3	12	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	5	Slant	Van Bergen	2
Van Bergen(+2) slants past the G before he can react and is up the middle on Carder before his receivers can even get to the sticks(pressure +2). Carder dumps it off on a little in at the LOS that takes the receiver off his feet; Kovacs(+0.5) likely had it covered for minimal gain anyway.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(40), 7-7, 12 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M47	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	N/A	Yakety sax	--	3
Looks kind of like a QB draw but this is a busted play. RB thinks it's a speed option; Carder extends for a mesh point. Then he runs. Frontside has a totally unblocked Fitzgerald because of the bust; Carder cuts it back. There's room because Campbell(-1) gave a lot of ground fighting playside. Fitzgerald(+0.5) chases Carder around RVB, who held up to a double, and tackles with help from Ryan(+0.5). Ryan flew upfield and recovers with a flying squirrel tackle.
M44	2	7	Shotgun empty 2TE	Nickel	Run	N/A	QB power off tackle	Fitzgerald	6
Poop all around, I say! Campbell(-1) is blasted back by a double. He gives a couple yards and that's two too many. Roh(-1) runs too far upfield and almost doesn't have to be blocked; G peels at the last second when Roh finally starts coming down. Big hole. Fitzgerald(-2) doesn't read a single key ON A PLAY WITH PULLING OL and starts dropping into coverage, whereupon a TE cuts him. Carder's about to be one on one with Johnson for the endzone when Kovacs(+1, tackling +1) cuts him down after taking the exact right angle to get there.
M38	3	1	Wishbone	Base 4-4	Run	N/A	Iso	Herron	2
Someone's got to win an individual battle here to prevent this from happening and no one does. Martin holds up to a double; Fitz takes the FB, and Herron(-0.5) hits the RB after a yard. I think he can get to the hole more efficiently.
M36	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	4	Screen	Herron	7
This is tough for Avery since he's in press man. Hard to read this quickly. Herron would be the guy who could diagnos this early since he's dropping while looking straight at the QB; he reacts just as fast as Avery. Herron(-0.5) takes an angle a bit too far outside and allows the RB to spin through for an extra couple yards. Not terrible but he could have done better. Beyer did do a good job of recognition and helps tackle, FWIW. Tackling -1.
M29	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Penalty	N/A	False Start	--	-5
Turrible!
M34	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Pass	6	Improv	--	17
Michigan sends six and gets picked up (pressure -2) until Black(+0.5) worms his way through on a stunt. Too long; Carder rolls away from the pressure and hits a receiver. Kovacs(+0.5, tackling +1) is there immediately.
M17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Run	N/A	Counter	Beyer	11
Beyer(-2) can't win for losing here: after getting burned by going too far upfield on the last counter he does squeeze down this time... way too far. He needs to thunder at the pulling guard and cut his ass to the ground in the backfield in a spot where the other lead blocker will run into the pile. Instead he just gets sealed and allows everything to bounce outside. Herron(-2) compounds matters by also getting sealed, not that it would have mattered much because Fitzgerald(-1) took a counter step and then got sliced to the ground on a cut block that also took out Johnson. Kovacs(+0.5) cleans up. It's like these guys don't have OL keys. Picture paged.
M6	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide?	Nickel press?	Pass	6	Out	Kovacs	2
Some technical difficulties. As we come back six guys are rushing Carder including Avery(!). Brink(+0.5) is running free (pressure +1). Carder dumps it off into the flat, whereupon Kovacs(+1, tackling +1) tackles immediately for little gain.
M4	2	G	Ace	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	5	Batted	Ryan	Int
Ryan(+3) lined up as a standup DT next to Martin. He rips through the RG like he isn't there and leaps at Carder as he tries to get the ball out, deflecting it into the air. Herron(+2) makes the easy interception and then runs a long way for points. Should I give Ryan more here? I've never given more than +3 for any play. Picture paged @ TTB.
Drive Notes: Interception, defensive TD, 14-7, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O30	1	10	Shotgun 2-back trips	Nickel	Run	N/A	Triple option dive	Heininger	0
Heininger(+1) takes a double; Jones(+0.5) moves to fill quickly, causing the RB to hesitate as he nears the LOS. This is a bad idea, and Heininger(+1 again) eats him.
O30	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Hitch	Heininger	Inc
Looks like Carder is going to zing it on a hitch near the sticks that Mike Jones(-0.5) got a little out of position on; Heininger(+1, pressure +1) bats it down.
O30	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	5	Out	Kovacs	Inc
Blitz does not quite get home but RVB(+1) is pushing through the line just as the routes break; Carder has to throw to his first read. This is against Kovacs(+1), who is in good coverage(+1) against the outside guy as he breaks his route at ten yards. Carder's throw is downfield and the WR has to stab at it one handed; Kovacs hits him and breaks it up. Live I thought M got lucky here; on tape Kovacs's coverage is good enough to require a perfect throw. If this is just a little upfield he tackles short of the sticks.
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-7, 6 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Pass	4	Seam	Johnson	20
Zone blitz sees RVB drop into a short screen-killing zone. Blitz does not get home (pressure -1). It's hard to tell who's at fault for the seam coming open but if I had to guess it would be Johnson(-1, cover -2), who is the deep center in a three deep and is way late, overrunning the play. Floyd comes from the outside to tackle.
M42	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	3	Hitch	Van Slyke	7
Martin(+1) bowls over the center and then fights past the guard to get pressure(+1) up the middle pretty quickly on a three man rush. Van Slyke gets a chuck on the slot receiver, who sits down in between him, Herron, and Demens; he immediately tackles. (Cover -1)
M35	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Okie	Pass	5	Out	Johnson	16
Five man rush gets there(pressure +1) with at least two guys; Carder throws a quick out as Demens(+0.5) flies up the middle on a well-timed stunt past two guys doubling Martin. Johnson(-3) is late reading the little out and has already given up the first by the time he forms up; he then whiffs the tackle(-1), turning five yards into 15.
M19	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel Eff It	Pass	7	Fly	Avery	Inc
Sends: house. Obviously something gets through(pressure +1); Carder chucks it deep to a fly route Avery(+2, cover +1) has step for step. He's right in the WR's chest as he goes up for the ball. WR leaps, then reaches out and low in an attempt to stab the ball. Avery rakes it out. Gibson -2. Demens(+1) leveled Carder, BTW.
M19	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Pass	6	Corner	Gordon	Inc
Demens(-1) comes on the same blitz untouched (pressure +1); Carder dodges him. He sets up and chucks it unsurprisingly, the corner route was long. Gordon(+1, cover +1) was step for step with the slot.
M19	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel Eff It	Pass	7	Corner	--	Inc
Demens(+0.5) charging again(pressure +1); this time the corner is more open but Carder chucks it way long off his back foot. RPS +2 for this sequence, which clearly got in the QB's head.
Drive Notes: FG(36), 20-10, EOH
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O13	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	N/A	Zone read counter	Martin	3
At first I thought this was a stunt by the DTs but not so much after I look at it a while; RVB(-1) just got bashed inside by a double while Martin(+1) read the G pull and fought through his downblock to flow down the line. Demens(+0.5) takes on that G about a yard past the LOS—not ideal—but does turn the play inside with an assist from Gordon(+0.5), who plunged down from the slot. Herron(+0.5) is about to tackle but Martin beats him to it.
O16	2	7	I-form 3-wide	Nickel?	Pass	N/A	Bubble screen	Floyd	3
Jebus, Michigan is begging for a bubble in its face on this play. There is one player within ten yards(!) of the twins side, that being JT Floyd. Autocheck to bubble is autochecked to, whereupon Floyd(+3) dodges a cut block and tackles the bubble by himself for three yards. (RPS -2.) Great play on an island.
O19	3	4	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	5	Hitch	Herron	7
Part II of “they can learn”: This is a very similar blitz and play to the previous Herron hitch that resulted in a first down. This time Herron's steps are better, as is his angle, and he's in position to make a play if he'd just look for the ball/get his hands up. He doesn't and Carder hits the small window provided. I guess Herron(-0.5), cover -1. Pressure -1 as well; Carder would have had time to go to a second read.
O26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Run	N/A	Yakety snap	N/A	-2
Who knows what this was going to be; the snap is high and Carder manages to bat it forward to his tailback, but then he's submarined. I think it was going to be a QB power off tackle, FWIW.
O24	2	12	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Pass	5	Scramble	Kovacs	3
Carder's first read is a hitch around the sticks that Kovacs(+1) has dropped right into from a blitz position(RPS +1) and is bracketed over the top by Avery. Late movement and a blitz by Demens(+1) flushes Carder up in the pocket, where RVB and Martin combine to tackle after an eh gain. (Pressure +1, cover +1.) Picture paged @ BWS.
O27	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Out	Avery	14
Avery(-1, cover -1) gets no chuck on the WR at the line in press and does not protect the sticks with his break despite having deep help; Carder hits his WR with a nice rhythm throw. Not horrible but you could do better.
O41	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Penalty	N/A	Illegal Snap	--	-5
UR TURRIBILBLBLBLBL
O36	1	15	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	N/A	Inverted veer	Demens	1
Late shift sees Kovacs run down into the box as Herron blitzes. Herron is blown up by the RT, but that takes some time and prevents any release downfield. Beyer's upfield blitz convinces QB to hand off and takes the pulling G. Reason you run this is so that Beyer does one or the other, not both. The blitz means Kovacs(+1), who is now in the box, nails the FB near the LOS and turns it inside. Demens(+1) got a free scrape because of the blitz (RPS+1) and tackles with authorita.
O37	2	14	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	4	Sack	Kovacs	-6
Yeah, that play that instantly changed everyone's opinion of Kovacs? Four man rush. NT Heininger backs out and two guys take Brink; Kovacs, who has been backing out on these so far, lines up outside of Herron, who also comes, and adjust his route after a beat. This allows those two guys to occupy themselves with Brink and gives Kovacs(+3) a free run at Cader, which he takes LIKE A BOSS, depositing his helmet on the ball and knocking it free. Herron(+2) gets more credit this time for the presence of mind to scoop and score. Kovacs. Like a boss. Picture paged @ BWS as well.
Drive Notes: Defensive touchdown, 27-10, 9 min 3rd Q. Do you know what I love? The camera settles on Carder after this play; as this happens the replay hits the scoreboard and the stadium goes “OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH." That is what I love.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O37	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	M. Robinson	11
Marvin Robinson still in for Johnson. Here there are two keys. Black(-1.5) is unblocked and scoots upfield fast. He does not read the jet action until it's too late and runs by it without forcing the WR to orbit around him. He's never going to make this tackle but he can delay the opposition; he does not. By not blocking him WMU can double Demens, who read and flowed with aplomb but can't do anything about an OL and another dude blocking him. Gordon(+0.5) fills to the outside, forcing a cutback. Robinson(-1.5) is filling until a WR slices him to the ground. RB leaps over MRob and rumblestumbles for a first down.
O48	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Penalty	N/A	False Start	--	-5
YOUR PARENTS ARE ASHAMED
O43	1	15	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	6	Sack	Kovacs	-8
This does go one high because Kovacs is sneaking down, kind of telegraphing his blitz. Martin moves left, taking the G, as Jones moves up the middle. RG shoves Martin and moves to Jones; RB shoots up the middle, leaving both Martin and Kovacs(+2) unblocked. Kovacs has the agility to cut inside Martin and nail Carder again. By the time this happens Martin is already peeling back to the LOS in case this doesn't work out. Kovacs has this, ese. (Pressure +2, RPS +1)
O35	2	23	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Penalty	N/A	Delay	--	-5
YOU SHOULD HAVE GONE TO MICHIGAN STATE LOL
O30	2	28	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	4	Screen	Jones	13
Stunt seems harmful here as by the time the four rushers realize what their lanes are and what's going on the screen is already happening. Martin(-1) should read what it is faster, I think, and peel back. Avery(-0.5) comes up a bit too hard and lets things in front of him; safeties are way off. Jones(+0.5) gets hit by an OL but recovers to make a diving dodgy ankle luck tackle. Dangerous. Demens(-1) also slow reading. RPS -1
O43	3	15	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Pass	4	Out	Kovacs	Inc
Despite what Patrick says, blitz not actually coming; four guys. Martin backs out. Roh(+0.5) threatens to split a double and Ryan(+0.5) does the same, spooking Carder. Probably for the best since because of these things if Carder delayed Demens was going to annihilate him. Carder throws an out short of the sticks that Kovacs(+2) has dropped into and breaks up. Wasn't getting the first anyway. (pressure +1, cover +1) Picture paged @ BWS.
Drive Notes: Punt, 27-10, 6 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O37	1	10	I-Form tight	Nickel 4-3	Pass	4	PA Out	Ryan	Inc
Ryan(+2) swims past the LT like he's not there and gets in on Carder just after he gets the PA fake off (pressure +1), causing him to throw his out wide. Good thing. Either Avery(-1) or Herron had biffed his zone drop (cover -1) and this would be open. I think it's Avery, but your guess is as good as mine.
O37	2	10	I-form	Nickel 4-3	Penalty	N/A	False Start	--	-5
LOL
O32	2	15	I-form	Nickel 4-3	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Martin	4
Martin(+1) splits a double and threatens to tackle in the backfield, forcing a cutback. He just misses a TFL. Herron(+0.5) reads the backside cut and does fend off a free-releasing tackle to get to the RB and begin the takedown. Kovacs arrives in time to take him down.
O36	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel press	Pass	6	Rollout out	Gordon	12
They're finally tired of getting destroyed by Kovacs and roll the pocket away from him. Martin(+0.5) and Roh(+0.5) still bust through blocks and force a throw (pressure +1). This is in front of Gordon(-1), who can't react quickly enough to tackle on the catch(cover -1) on a third and long, allowing the WR to fall forward for the first.
O48	1	10	Ace 3-wide	Nickel	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Beyer	9
Martin(+1) slants past the backside G, getting playside and rapidly flowing down the line in the backfield; Black(+1) also gets good position and helps close down the POA for what should be a TFL... if not for Beyer(-2) tearing after the QB on his boot fake and Herron(-1) not reacting to the cutback as quickly as I'd hope he would. May be harsh on Herron.
M43	2	1	Ace 3-wide	Nickel press	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Fitzgerald	4
A 3-4-ish look with press on the WRs leaves six in the box. Black(-1) gets banged inside as blitzers come from the edges, leaving a big hole for the RB. Fitzgerald(+1) takes on a block and bounces out to help contain, eventually making contact just past the sticks. MRob helps clean up.
M39	1	10	I-Form	Nickel 4-3	Run	N/A	Power off tackle	Brink	14
Brink(-2) at NT nailed inside, blown behind Heininger at DT. Really cannot give that much ground. Herron(-0.5) and Fitzgerald(-0.5) both have tough jobs and don't really do them, getting cut and not being able to slow the RB. This is really on the lack of impedance through the hole, though. Kovacs(-0.5) comes to fill and misses his tackle(-1); his angle did drive the RB into Gordon, who's angling back from his duties over the slot.
M25	1	10	I-Form	Nickel 4-3	Run	N/A	Yakety snap	--	0
Fumbled snap that M recovers.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 34-10, 3 min 3rd Q. Game is called on next drive.

How was that?

That was kind of like watching last year's Michigan offense.

Wait, what?

WMU's offense was like Michigan's offense last year insofar as they drove the ball down the field consistently but only got ten points because they missed field goals and shot themselves in the face with turnovers. The touchdown returns were a zesty bonus on top of the turnover sundae, but it was basically the same.

So we made Western look like Denard Robinson was their quarterback?

Er… not exactly. The Broncos had a distinct lack of explosion in their giddy-up, averaging just five yards a play. They were only on yardage parity with Michigan because of the two defensive touchdowns and their drives only got as threatening as they did because of some crappy special teams on Michigan's part.

By drive:

1. 16 play touchdown. Bad.
2. Drive starts at midfield, basically, and after a long run we discussed earlier WMU is booted off the field. They miss a FG. Correctable.
3. WMU drives from midfield to the Michigan ten, whereupon Herron INT TD.
4. Three and out.
5. Two-minute drive starts at 40 and gets to the Michigan 19 before Mattison goes blitz nuts. FG.
6. WMU finally has bad field position (their 13) gets a couple first downs, and then Kovacs fumble TD.
7. One first down, then punt.
8. Drive starts at 40, moves to Michigan 25 before fumble.

Carder started off hot and Michigan's defense was a confused shambles for the first drive. After that it wasn't too bad.

How about that Herron?

Er, it's just that…

Chart?

Chart.

[Introductory section for new people and those who need reminding:

UFR points are handed out to players who seem to have a direct impact on the success or failure of a particular play. The system has historically favored linemen, who are put in a position to Make A Play frequently, and been tough on defensive backs, who have usually screwed up when they are in your picture. I can't fix that without putting a crippling amount of time into grading players not directly affecting the play and frankly I am an amateur, so I might not do it right. By focusing on the directly involved I can used Results Based Charting: I can hand out things based on the success of the thing that actually happened.

Points usually range from –3 to +3 with half-points available. When particularly incensed I have given out bigger minuses.

There are also four metrics:

• TACKLING: Points handed out for good open field tackles that cut down on YAC. Subtracted for whiffs that do not serve a purpose. (It's okay to whiff outside because you know there will be gang tackle when the guy cuts back.)
• PRESSURE: Points handed out for getting to the QB, subtracted for not getting there. As a general rule when the QB is not able to get to a second read that's a plus. If he's able to get to three that's a minus. Pressure is graded on a curve: it's easier to get a plus rushing three than rushing six.
• COVERAGE: Points handed out for covering a guy and subtracted for not doing so. Running a guy's route for him is a +2, being in position to do something about it is a +1. Usually you will have to be far enough away to allow YAC to get a –1. Huge minuses are possible here when you DON'T COVER THAT GODDDAMN WHEEL—ahem.
• RPS: "Rock-Paper-Scissors." This is a proxy for the coordinator battle. When Michigan does something that the opponent can't deal with, like blitzing Kovacs into the QB's chest, they get a plus. When they send seven and get a screen on their face they get a minus. End section.]

So I completely screwed up the RPS. The rest I'll vouch for.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Van Bergen	5	1	4	Not as much pass rush as you might want but did get a litte push.
Martin	6	1	5	Not really seeing the criticism. He made a few plays in about a quarter and a half of time and was often dropping.
Roh	1	1	0	This, on the other hand, was disappointing.
Brink	0.5	2	-1.5	Blown up on a run late.
Heininger	3	-	3	Made a few plays on a second half drive.
Black	2	2.5	-0.5	See Roh.
Campbell	-	2	-2	This is not happening.
TOTAL	17.5	9.5	8	Uninspiring. Mitigating factors: heat, lack of 4th Q, zone blitzes, mega pressure number.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
C. Gordon	-	-	-	DNP
Demens	7.5	5	2.5	Kind of a rough start but played in odd conditions.
Herron	5	9.5	-4.5	Not good when ball wasn't finding him for touchdowns.
Ryan	8.5	-	8.5	Can really get to QB. Most consistent rusher on the day.
Fitzgerald	2	3.5	-1.5	Slow to react.
Jones	1	0.5	0.5	Not much to go on.
Evans	-	-	-	DNP
Beyer	-	6	-6	Highly irresponsible against the run. Doubt we see much of him this week.
Hawthorne	-	-	-	DNP
Morgan	-	-	-	DNP
TOTAL	24	24.5	-0.5	Schizophrenic day; will get better with more Demens, less Beyer. WLB a concern.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Floyd	5	-	5	One great play on a bubble, one endzone PBU.
Avery	3	3	3.5	Another endzone PBU but not so hot underneath.
Woolfolk	2	2	0	Mostly bubble action before injury.
Kovacs	13.5	0.5	13	Impeccable. Some of these points might belong to Mattison.
T. Gordon	4.5	2	2.5	I like him.
Johnson	-	8	-8	Looked lost.
Robinson	-	1.5	-1.5	Also not much to go on.
TOTAL	27	15	12	Wow?
Metrics
Pressure	15	5	10	Alex Carder is still coughing up blood.
Coverage	6	11	-5	A lot of this was Herron, frankly.
Tackling	6	3	3	Meh.
RPS	10	9	1	A bit more on this later.

I think that's mostly on point. While the corners gave up some short plays they coped well with the bubble and both had endzone PBUs. Our first tenuous suggestion that Tony Gibson may be an evil spy has been achieved.

Meanwhile, Carvin Johnson had a rough day that ended with him getting pulled for Robinson, Jake Ryan was excellent, about which more later, and Michigan got very little out of the WDE spot. I'm not that worried about RVB or Martin since they didn't get much action and still had a few plays to their name; extrapolated across an entire game they'll be fine.

And then there's Kovacs. That is a record-shattering performance for a member of Michigan's secondary and it is absolutely deserved. Kovacs led the team in tackles, only half-missing a couple of those. He led ballcarriers into other defenders, which is why Western had to go on long marches—they couldn't bust it past Kovacs. He annihilated Carder on two sacks, one of which produced a game-sealing fumble. While Mattison got him those runs at the QB, his execution was flawless. On the first, he had the agility to slash back inside of Herron and the technique to put his helmet directly on the ball. And he added two PBUs for good measure.

But he's a walk on and not very good.

Screw it: Kovacs is good now, no qualifiers. I have just doomed him to awful play against Notre Dame, but whatever.

What about that RPS?

Obviously that should not be right when the QB has been forced into two turnovers and has been eating linemen all day. I think Mattison was brilliant, at least as far as you can be against a MAC team, and have to adjust my grading to account for these "blitz" things he's introduced.

Yeah, how about those?

Last year I started tracking the number of rushers M sent at the quarterback because Greg Robinson kept sending three, which I defended as not totally insane at the time. Like everything else, it was totally insane.

The number of three-man rushes against WMU? One. That stuff about being aggressive that every defensive coordinator says? 100% valid. The really cool thing about being aggressive? Mattison is doing it while often getting seven guys into coverage by bringing zone blitzes. 

This kind of stuff isn't anything new to NFL watchers or teams that deploy a non-GERG as a DC. But being able to do it well is a massive advantage because it makes life hard not only on the opponent's bodies but their minds. There were points in that game when Carder was just dumping the ball out of the endzone so Kenny Demens wouldn't hurt him so much, and Mattison confused the hell out of the Bronco OL.

Brandon Herron's two touchdowns make him awesome. /national award thingy guys

Er… no. I generously gave Herron four points for not dropping the world's easiest interception and doing the scoop and score on the fumble, and the fourth point is really just for running 100 yards without passing out. Outside of those plays in which other folks did the work Herron was –8.5 on the day.

A typical play follows. On it, Kenny Demens makes a tackle in the hole as Herron, who was lined up closer to the eventual hole, actually passes Demens halfway through the play:

That sort of slow reading was rampant.

Did anyone impress you, sourpants?

Apparently Jake Ryan can do what he did to a freshman walk-on in spring to backup JUCO MAC guard and an actual starting MAC guard, too. You've probably seen him rip through the line on the INT TD plenty but there was also this:

I have him down for a couple additional pressure and one hell of a debut. It sounds like Cam Gordon's out this weekend too; he might have lost his job by the time he gets back. Or maybe they'll move stuff around to get more production out of the WDE and WLB spots.

Heroes?

This was a very black and white game: Kovacs and Ryan were awesome.

Goats?

The black: Herron makes me very worried about WLB, Beyer shouldn't have been on the field, and the lack of production out of WDE is alarming.

What does it mean for Notre Dame and beyond?

That nickel package is probably going to be on the field a lot against ND's passing spread. Rees is not mobile and they seem mistake-prone so we could see a fair share of helmets deposited in to ribcages in the backfield.

Downfield they'll chuck it up to Floyd a lot, which means Woolfolk will need to be  back and healthy and he'll need some help. Though Avery and Floyd did well against Western, ND is a whole additional ball of wax. If Woolfolk does end up fully back—sounds like it—I wonder if Michigan will put all three corners in and drop Gordon back to the other safety spot. That will be key, as will getting a better performance out of WLB. And Craig Roh's got to step up.

Gratuitous video of the week: It's only appropriate that we lead off with some fullback SMASH.

THAT'S MANBALL YOU'RE PICKING OUT FROM YOUR SHATTERED TEETH, BRONCO WOOOOO

Reminder: dotted underline mean a video that will pop up for you when you click.

Formation notes: As noted by many, Michigan was about 70% shotgun in this game. They showed some I-form, a few ace sets, a few big sets, and one unbalanced line. I'm not sure breaking down the percentages is going to mean much given the paucity of snaps and big lead. We'll get a better picture of the offense in a pressure situation this week.

Substitution notes: Schofield played the entire game at left guard. Lewan had to come out for a couple snaps after losing a shoe; when that happened Mealer went in at RT and Huyge flipped to LT. Toussaint got the bulk of the work at RB with Shaw and Smith getting carries here and there.

Moore was the second TE and only one to play other than Koger; Hemingway, Roundtree, Gallon, Grady, and Dileo were receivers on passing downs. Jackson played but those were all runs IIRC.

Show? Show:

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M24	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	Down G	Robinson	11
Koger(+1) blocks down on the playside end as Lewan(+1) and Schofield(+1) pull around, both picking off linebackers. Toussaint(+1) leads the way for Robinson, hitting Schofield's guy as he threatens to break outside and driving the pair back into the last LB. Hemingway(-1) totally whiffs on his guy; Robinson can cut past him but slips to the ground just past the first down marker.
RUN+: Koger, Lewan, Schofield, Toussaint							RUN-: Hemingway
M35	1	10	Shotgun 2TE Twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	4
The old Minor play where Robinson takes a step towards the LOS late and the RB attacks downhill. It's a little like the pistol. Schofield(+1) kicks out the playside DE; Molk and Omameh double the NT and there is a crease playside. It's getting filled by the S quickly but it's where Toussaint(-1) should go, probably. He cuts back. This puts him in the path of the NT, who is spinning backside; NT falls past the play. Toussaint is nimble enough to get behind him. This means he runs up the back of Molk and Omameh. That S and a few other guys make a pile.
RUN+: Schofield, Molk(0.5), Omameh(0.5)							RUN-: Toussaint(0.5)
M39	2	6	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Pass	Hitch	Roundtree	3
Simple pitch and catch as the CB bails at the snap. Defense reacts quickly and holds it down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M42	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	QB power off tackle	Robinson	4
Schofield pulls around. Huyge(-1) is blocking down and loses his slanting DE a bit. This isn't serious enough to get the DE in but the ground given up almost disrupts Schofield's pull. He does make it, though, kicking out a linebacker(+1). Omameh(+1) pancakes the other MLB; Toussaint(+1) kicks out the playside OLB. Safety is charging hard but can't get to Robinson before the first down.
RUN+: Schofield, Toussaint, Omameh							RUN-: Huyge
M46	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Tunnel screen	Gallon	1
Man, do I like the bubble way better here. The play action fake sucks the playside OLB up and if this was a bubble it would be one blocker, one defender, and Gallon—probably a good chunk. On the tunnel Gallon's coming inside just as the OLB reads the fake. He forces Gallon upfield and inside. Gallon does well to turn a two yard loss into a minimal gain. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)
M47	2	9	I-form	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Run	Power off tackle	Smith	4
Some third down back. Huyge(+1) gets a much better block this time, nailing his man inside and out of the gap. WMU is playing to spill this: the DE dives inside and an OLB scrapes over the top to catch bounce-outs. DE does a pretty good job, leaving Smith no choice but to hit it up behind Huyge's good block. In there Koger(-0.5) has only done a meh job on the MLB, who is sliding towards the LOS, where he trips Smith. I have an impulse to RPS -1 this that I know is bad.
RUN+: Huyge							RUN-:
O49	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB power off tackle	Robinson	10
Other side of the line so Omameh pulls. Lewan(+2) goes EPIC DONKEY, first blocking down on the DT with Schofield and sealing him, then peeling to pancake the playside LB. Omameh doesn't really have anyone to block; he's concentrating on the other LB but I'd like to see him read that and beeline for the safety. Those guys end up at a pile at the LOS; Robinson cuts behind it to avoid the safety and gets a few more.
RUN+: Robinson, Lewan(2)							RUN-:
O39	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 4-4	Pass	PA TE Seam	Koger	11
Zone read fake draws up the linebackers and opens up Koger. Robinson zips it high, forcing Koger to extend to grab it. At the same time he gets lit up by the safety. He hangs on. Nice catch. (MA, 1, protection N/A)
O28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	5
Doubles on both DTs; the playside one sees Schofield shove the guy and move to the second level, where there is no one to block because the WMU LB has shot up through the gap to the inside. This is to no avail as Toussaint is already outside. He's got a lane. Molk is doing okay against the playside DT and the gap is narrow. That DT reaches out to arm-tackle. Toussaint hops through it and then has to leap over Lewan, who was chucked to the ground by the DE. He's then in no position to deal with the safety; he still gets decent yardage. I think half points for Lewan and Molk for creating the hole and a half point to Toussaint for getting what he can.
RUN+: Lewan(0.5), Molk(0.5), Toussaint(0.5)							RUN-:
O23	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	QB draw	Robinson	1
I'm not sure if this is anyone's fault or just an RPS. WMU line slants playside so the NT ends up impacting Omameh, not Molk. Omameh lets him outside, which means Robinson has to cut behind. This robs Toussaint of his angle on the MLB. I think I do blame Omameh(-1) because Schofield(+1) had the same problem and did better; Molk(-1) still had an MLB angle and whiffed. He tackles after a minimal gain.
RUN+: Schofield							RUN-: Molk, Omameh
O22	3	4	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 3-4	Pass	Speed out	Dileo	3
IE: cover zero. They send seven. Michigan runs speed outs with the slots and I think this is a missed read from the start since the safety is way off Grady on the other out and he's got an easier throw and obvious first down over there. As it is he does have Dileo and probably has a first down; he throws it upfield, forcing a diving catch that takes Dileo off his feet a yard short. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)
O19	4	1	Ace	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Run	Dive	Toussaint	3
Straight up the middle with no lead blocker. Eh? Omameh(+1) latches onto the LB blitzing up the A gap and puts him on his ass. Molk(+1) gets under the NT and drives him back, and Huyge(+0.5) gets enough of the last LB. Toussaint slams it up.
RUN+: Omameh, Molk, Huyge(0.5)							RUN-:
O16	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	-1
Lewan loses his shoe. Huyge flips to LT and Mealer comes in at RT. Blitz/slant from WMU. Blitzer cuts off the frontside of the play; on the backside Schofield(-1) and Huyge(-1) let the DE slant between them into the backfield. Schofield ends up running into Huyge behind the LOS. Mealer(-1) ends up blocking no one. Toussaint slows up and is lost. Run-: Mealer, Huyge, Schofield
O17	2	11	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Dig	Grady	15
PA stretch into the passing play where the TE leaks into the flat. WMU's WLB makes a great play; he's blitzing into the backside. He whacks Koger, then grabs him a bit and starts riding him downfield. First read closed. Robinson comes off it and hits Grady in the numbers just as he clears one linebacker in zone. Catch, first and goal. (CA+, 3, protection N/A)
O2	1	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Base 3-4	Run	Power off tackle	Toussaint	1
Actually blocked pretty well but just too many guys in the area. The safety who would normally be way downfield is at the LOS. Toussaint isn't big enough to plow him into the end zone. This is such a wad of bodies I hesitate to give anything out. No one seems to do anything wrong or exceptional. I guess Lewan gets a point for being the main thing that created the room down to the one.
RUN+: Lewan							RUN-:
O1	2	G	Ace	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Run	Dive	Toussaint	1
Same play as the 4th and 1 and they get it. Again it seems like Lewan is the main reason, as he is playside of a tackle slanting into the gap and gets enough of him. But he also kind of gets annihilated. I'll abstain here.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	TE Out	Koger	5
Meh gain that looks like a bad read. Slot is running the same pattern farther outside except the corner over there is being run off by a fly route. He could turn it up; Koger just gets chopped down by a linebacker. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, though Schofield had a little trouble.)
M26	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	2
Gets past the first level snappily as Schofield(+1) kicks out the playside DT. Omameh does okay with his guy but can't prevent him from getting playside when he starts giving ground. Still, he's through the hole. Molk contacts the MLB near the LOS and this spooks Robinson(-1) into the backside of the play, where the blocking is thin on the ground. It doesn't help that Hemingway(-1) was torn between two different guys and ends up blocking no one. The corner comes up hard; Denard jumps over him and looks like he just... might... fall over for two yards.
RUN+: Schofield							RUN-: Robinson, Hemingway
M28	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	TE Fly	Koger	Inc
WMU rushes four and gets stoned; Molk is driven back by a blitzer and then starts blowing that LB downfield. Robinson has a ton of time. He sees Koger breaking open downfield and decides to take a shot; the pass is long. Koger had good position on a DB but was step-for-step with him. Also it's third and three and you're Denard Robinson: run. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 11 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M26	1	10	Shotgun 2TE Twins	1	2	2	Base 4-4	Run	Pin and pull zone	Shaw	-1
This does not work at all. The idea is to pin a couple guys with down blocks and pull more and then have the RB work it out as he goes; nothing works here. Koger(-1), Omameh(-1), and Lewan(-1) get beaten on their down blocks. Huyge misses a hard-charging corner but that wouldn't be a problem if anyone else had made a block. Shaw(+1) manages to dodge that guy and a six-yard loss. Molk(-1) then runs by the guys flowing down the line before thinking better of it, giving him no cutback against the charging corner. This was a crapfest.
RUN+: Shaw							RUN-: Molk, Lewan, Koger(2), Omameh
M25	2	11	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Run	Delay	Shaw	5
This is a well-blocked play that gets held down because WMU is running cover zero and by the time Shaw crosses the LOS the FS is four yards away from him and charging. RPS -1. Molk and Omameh(+1 each) destroy a DT; Lewan and Schofield(+1 each) both kick out DL. McColgan kind of misses but not too badly; Shaw is one on one with a safety for a TD, but unfortunately this battle is going down three yards past the LOS.
RUN+: Molk, Omameh, Schofield, Lewan							RUN-:
M30	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Deep Hitch	Gallon	13
WMU sends five and gets picked up pretty well. WMU corner bails out early and Gallon cuts his route off; Denard zings it to him. Ball is a bit outside and upfield but nothing too bad; could argue he's keeping it away from defenders. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
M43	1	10	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Base 4-4	Pass	PA TE Cross	Moore	Inc (8 Pen)
Play action with a pulling guard suckers Western. Denard pulls up and floats one to Moore at about the sticks; he's tripped just as the ball gets there. On replay this looks like a pretty tough catch. (MA, N/A, protection 2/2)
O49	1	10	I-Form Big Unbalanced	2	2	1	Base 3-4	Run	Power off tackle	Smith	7
Moore at “RT”; Huyge on the left inside of Lewan. Huyge(+1)blocks the playside DE off the ball; Lewan(+1) gets a linebacker; McColgan(+2) blasts a linebacker back into a teammate, leaving no one for Omameh to block; Smith follows the blocks.
RUN+: Lewan, Huyge, McColgan(2)							RUN-:
O43	2	3	Ace	1	2	2	Base 3-4	Pass	Slant	Roundtree	9
Pitch and catch as a linebacker who might be able to cover this zooms into a flat with no one in it. Zone opens up. Denard zings it considerably behind Roundtree, who makes a tough spinning catch just as he's lit up. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
O32	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	10
Molk(+1) clubs the NT out of the hole. Lewan(+1) gets his helmet across the backside DE and then blocks him with his back; there's the crease. Toussaint(+1) hits it, then gets into the chest of a guy Schofield was trying to block, running through him for six yards.
RUN+: Lewan, Molk(2), Toussaint							RUN-:
O22	1	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Robinson	12
Schofield(-2) smoked in pass pro, but the guy misses Robinson, and then another guy sort of inexplicably hits the ground. Missing Robinson means you are in trouble and he takes off on a weaving, darting run. By my count he slips three tackles and turns a six yard loss into a first down. (SCR, N/A, protection -2, Schofield)
RUN+: Robinson(3)							RUN-:
O10	1	G	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 4-4	Run	Quick pitch	Shaw	5 + 2 pen
I kind of hate this play since it depends on suckering an unblocked guy or having your RB make a great play. Here WMU blitzes off the edge, suckering by default, and the CB is still totally unblocked. Huyge(+1) does a great job of sealing the playside LB; Roundtree(-2) runs at the same guy, leaving the corner to charge up unmolested. Shaw(+2) jukes him , gets five yards, and then gets hit OOB.
RUN+: Shaw(2), Huyge							RUN-: Roundtree(2)
O2	1	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Base 4-4	Run	Iso	Toussaint	2
Nothing on the frontside; Toussaint sees this and cuts behind Koger(+1), who's driving down-the-line block opened up a cutback lane.
RUN+: Toussaint, Koger							RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown(blocked XP), 20-7, 1:50 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	DForm	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M41	1	10	?				?	Run	?	Robinson	4
Miss the play because of technical difficulties.
M45	2	6	?				?	Pass	?	Moore	Inc
We come back just in time to see a scrambling Robinson nearly throw a pick in the direction of Moore. (BR, 0, protection ??)
M45	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Slant	Roundtree	Inc
Well defended; pass thrown in front of Roundtree anyway. Mitigating factor: it is now raining like mad. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, special commendation to Smith for a blitz pickup)
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-10, 14 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	DForm	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M13	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	43
For the first time all game that's not a passing down WMU removes a linebacker from the box and places him over the receivers. The WMU DE has to form up on the zone read; Huyge(+1) gets the MLB and Omameh(+1) shoves the NT well past the play; he slanted playside when Michigan stepped to a zone. Big cutback lane that Toussaint(+1) hits fast enough that he's by the last LB despite his angle not giving Molk an opportunity to block him. I guess that's RPS +2 if only because this was easy.
RUN+: Huyge, Omameh, Toussaint							RUN-:
O44	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Pass	PA seam	Dileo	Inc
Zone read dive fake sucks up both linebackers and one safety, leaving Dileo open for six; Denard throws it well behind him. (IN, 1, protection 1/1, RPS +3
O44	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Shaw	44
This may be what was supposed to happen on the previous play, with both LBs hitting the backside hole after the line slants playside. Problem: two blockers there. Schofield(+2) and Lewan(+2) annihilate the linebackers; the DE is held outside by Robinson. Then the umpire(+2) picks off the safety. Good job ump. Shaw just has to run straight upfield. I guess that's +1? Also RPS+2? This is why the zone read is powerful. On both these plays it erased the DE, giving a numerical advantage.
RUN+: Schofield(2), Lewan(2), Shaw, Umpire(2)							RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 34-10, 6 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	DForm	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	PA post	Hemingway	37
Hemingway comes in motion inside and Michigan runs play action, pulling(!) the backside guard as if this is power. This sucks in both linebackers and one safety, who is five yards rom the LOS in a flash. Oops. Denard sets up and has Hemingway free on a post one on one with a corner. Denard puts it up. The ball is a bit short but I'd rather it's a little short and you give up five yards than missing long here; Hemingway posts up and brings it in. (CA, 2, protection 2/2, RPS+2)
O38	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	3
WMU has flipped their formation and manages not to give up 40 yards on this. Michigan gets confused as to what they should do, as Omameh(-0.5) and Huyge(-0.5) end up doubling a DT without trying to scoop him and end up leaving the MLB unblocked. Toussaint(+1) swiftly cuts behind that block and gets out of that gap. WMU did run a scrape here; Huyge has pulled off to take on the crashing DE. The scraper read the handoff and is in position to tackle at the LOS. Here the ZR did not option off a defender. RPS -1
RUN+: Toussaint							RUN-: Omameh, Huyge
O35	2	7	Ace twin TE	1	2	2	Base 4-3	Run	Power off tackle	Toussaint	11
WMU slants under the down-block from Schofield(-1) to get a DT into the backfield; he delays the pulling Omameh. Koger(+1) is a lead blocker and bangs a linebacker who's sucked too far inside. The slant plus that equals just a morass of bodies; Toussaint(+2) bounces out like whoah, breaking contain and dodging a safety for good yardage. Lewan(+1) clubbed a linebacker to the ground as well.
RUN+: Toussaint(2), Koger, Lewan							RUN-: Schofield
O24	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 4-4-	Run	QB power off tackle	Robinson	2
Cover zero in a driving rain storm means this run is overwhelmed and it's tough to block everyone. Charting this is pointless.
Drive Notes: EOG, 34-10.

Well, Mr. Fear of MANBALL, don't you feel silly?

Um, well… I'm not sure yet. We had five and a half drives against a MAC team, some of which were in a pouring storm. The jury is still out. As far as the blocking schemes go… I have to admit I'm a little worried. After years of noting that Molk can get his helmet across damn near anyone if tasked with a reach block, he wasn't asked to try it once against Western. The play at the beginning I thought was a stretch was actually a Down G, which they did run last year. All this interior blocking minimizes the advantage Molk possesses that seems likely to get a relative shrimp like Molk a job in the NFL.

For the record, Michigan's run breakdown:

• Down G (gap): one for 11 yards on the first snap.
• Power (gap): three RB carries for 7.3 YPC. Three QB carries for 5.3 YPC.
• Draw: two QB draws for three yards.
• Quick pitch: one for five.
• Inside zone: seven for 15.4 YPC. Woo small sample size!

There were also four short yardage plays. Two were dives from a two TE ace formation with Toussaint lined up three yards from the LOS, a third was an iso out of an I-Form Big, and the last was a power from the same formation. The dives/iso got first downs or TDs; the power got a yard on first and goal from the two. These aren't included in the YPC numbers I'll be tracking since they'll unfairly ding under center carries that are successful if they get a yard.

Shotgun carries averaged 10.6 YPC. From under center they averaged 6.8. Zone/gap was split about evenly but there was no outside zone. Obviously these are massive sample sizes that should be taken with deathly seriousness.

SAY IT YOU SILLY PERSON

Hoke uber alles?

Indeed. Tell us about our sumptuous quarterback who is the awesomest.

Uh… he kind of sucked.

LIES UNLESS THERE'S A CHART ALSO PROBABLY EVEN IF THERE IS ONE YOU LYING CHARTMONGER CHART

Chart. I'll throw in last year for comparison:

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR	DSR
2009, All Of It	1	7	6(2)	3(1)	4	4	-	-	?	44%
UConn	2	15(6)	-	-	3	2	-	-	2	68%
Notre Dame	3	25(8)	3(1)	4	1	-	4(1)	2	-	71%
UMass	4	10(3)	-	1	1	-	1	1	-	73%
Indiana	2	8(2)	1(1)	5(1)	-	-	-	-	-	66%
Michigan State	4	14(3)	1	7(1)	1	-	-	2	2	68%
Iowa	1	11(3)	2	3(1)	2	-	1	-	-	64%
Penn State	3	12(3)	1	4	2	-	1	-	-	63%
Illinois	4	9(1)	1	4	1	3	1(1)	-	-	60%
Purdue	2	12(1)	1	3	1	1	1	3	-	68%
Wisconsin	3	14(2)	2(1)	4(2)	-	2	2	-	-	71%
WMU '11	-	6(1)	4	3	1	-	-	-	1	56%

This is also a huge sample size not acquired in the process of herding animals into an ark and must be taken seriously.

But… yeah, when people were saying Robinson was a disappointment they were not wrong. That's his worst downfield day since he was a confused freshman and frankly some of those MAs could have been INs. I mean, Dileo touchdown easy biff sad. He didn't do much on the ground other than use his speed on the first play from scrimmage and dance around on that one scramble. In addition, two of those non-bad throws were bad reads where he had a better option. The weird nature of the game obviates a lot of that but if Denard does not go all Denard on Notre Dame there are going to be some nervous people around here.

I don't think much of it can be ascribed to operating from under center since he was missing plenty even when it was dry and he was operating from the shotgun. The throws he was asked to make didn't seem much different than what he was doing last year, but it's possible some of the inaccuracy was a timing issue. Saturday will be the first real test.

YOU SON OF A—

How about some more charts?

Receivers follow; I'll refrain from duplicating the first game totals. You can figure it out:

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3	0	1	2	3
Hemingway	-	-	-	-	-	-	1/1	-
Roundtree	-	-	-	-	-	1/1	-	1/1
Odoms	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Grady	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1/1
Gallon	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2/2
J. Robinson	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dileo	-	-	-	-	-	0/1	1/1	-
Jackson	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Koger	-	-	-	-	1	1/1	-	1/1
Moore	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
Toussaint	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Shaw	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Smith	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Hopkins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
McColgan	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Very little to go on when there are 13 attempts but for what little action they got they did superbly, bailing out Robinson on two occasions and helping twice with no drops.

Finally, you can see the effect of the change in run offense on Molk's numbers:

 

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Lewan	10.5	1	9.5	Left-handed power.
Barnum	-	-	-	DNP
Molk	4	2	2	: (
Omameh	4.5	2.5	2	Lot of pulling; bear with me as I adapt to the new style.
Huyge	4.5	2.5	2	All right, as per usual.
Schofield	8	2	6	Good debut; did get smoked on the Denard scramble.
Mealer	-	1	-1	DNP
Moore	-	-	-	Did some blocking but didn't register good or bad.
Koger	3	1	2	Did well.
TOTAL	34.5	11	22.5	Solid; running does seem considerably left-handed.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Robinson	4	1	3	Most of this on the scramble.
Gardner	-	-	-	DNP
Toussaint	8.5	0.5	8	I like him. May be a little exuberant though.
Shaw	4	-	4	Half of this on the quick pitch, another point for running fast on TD
Smith	-	-	-	Third down back my patootie.
Hopkins	-	-	-	DNP
Cox	-	-	-	DNP
McColgan	2	-	-	One slamming block.
TOTAL	18.5	1.5	17	We'll see if this holds up with more sample size.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Stonum	-	-	-	--
Odoms	-	-	-	--
TRobinson	-	-	-	--
Roundtree	-	2	-2	--
Grady	-	-	-	--
Gallon	-	-	-	--
Hemingway	-	2	-	--
TOTAL	0	4	-4	Not a good day on the outside. Held down a couple runs.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	12	2	83%	Schofield –2.

That's a lot of plusses, but the numbers say they're warranted as Michigan ripped off 7.3 YPC and would have threatened 250 yards rushing if the game had been completed. Rushing is not a concern yet. Notre Dame looms.

Little enthusiastic about Toussaint there, aren't' you?

I admit that when the number came up I was like "oh, someone wants a good running back this year and has corrupted himself to get it." This was pretty sweet, though:

That bounce is super-quick and correct. Toussaint showed good vision all day and that is 11 yards from nothing.

Heroes?

Lewan was the best of the OL, Toussaint had a good debut, and the receivers as a unit were near flawless.

Goats?

Er, Denard? Please don't pelt me with radioactive socks.

What does it mean for Notre Dame and beyond?

Man, I ain't extrapolating much from a few plays run in blistering heat or a driving rainstorm against a MAC opponent that got outscored by Michigan's defense. I think we'll see a multiple offense that leans on the shotgun in crunch time; I think Toussaint is for real and will be a B+ starter this year; I seriously hope they're not just going to shelve the stretch all year.

Against better teams I think the only way they get that safety in the box is by using Denard as that extra guy in the run game—the two long ones this week were zone reads where WMU did not scrape, providing Michigan a numerical advantage. Let's say it a third time: next week will be the test.

Formation notes: Nothing fancy from Michigan. Wisconsin mostly went with the linebacker-over-slot stuff ND and others have run all year. Most of the game they paired this with safeties 6-8 yards off the LOS like so:

Occasionally they would shift into a cover-zero 4-4 look but mostly it was this. On Michigan's final charted drive they went with the slot LB look with their safeties at real safety depth, whereupon Michigan passed all over them. 

Substitution notes: Lewan missed the game so Michigan went back to its earlier configuration with Huyge at LT. The rest of it was as per usual, except Shaw missed the game with a concussion and Smith got the vast bulk of the time as the number one back.

Show:

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M1	1	10	I-form twins	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Smith	2
Wisconsin LBs aligned to the backside of the play, allowing the backside DE to slant under the block of McColgan. Smith does well just to get a couple yards by picking his way through trash. RPS -1, though perhaps harsh since it's first and ten from the one.
M3	2	8	I-form twins	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout hitch	Roundtree	14
…but they could have done this so the RPS stands. Michigan rolls the pocket as the two RBs run at the LOS like they're running another iso, sucking linebackers up. Slot safety heads out on the Hemingway hitch outside, leaving Roundtree wide open for the first down. McColgan(-1) got chucked by a DE and Robinson gets some pressure so he has to throw this awkwardly; the resulting pass is on target but inside and takes Roundtree off his feet. Borderline MA/CA, but with the pressure I think it's the latter. (CA, 2, protection 1/2, McColgan -1, RPS +1)
M17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone dive	Smith	7
Eerily similar to the MSU game, where Michigan kept running it right down the throat of an opponent determined to let the backside DE contain on the read. Here he's even standing up with a big blinking sign that says "no scrape here, thanks." Dorrestein(+1) and Omameh(+1) destroy the backside DT, shoving him five yards downfield. This cuts off any LB angles and allows Smith a cutback lane behind the contain DE that he takes for a good chunk. (ZR +1)
RUN+:Omameh, Dorrestein							RUN-:
M24	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone dive	Smith	4
Same thing, same result, backside DE crashes faster and tackles better. Dorrestein gets a ding for not getting push sufficient to get out of the way of Smith as he tries to run past the DE. (ZR+1)
RUN+:Omameh, Dorrestein(0.5)							RUN-:
M28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Hemingway	Inc
Batted into the air as M slides their protection and leaves Smith one on one with a DE. DE forms up, perceiving this is a quick pass, and leaps to bat it. Smith needs to go at this guy's knees so this doesn't happen. (BA, 0, protection 0/2, Smith -2)
M28	2	10	?	?	?	?	?	Run	?	Robinson	1
We miss this play. Hate you director.
M29	3	9	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Robinson	6
Protection is fine; Robinson can't find anyone open and ends up running for a gain well short of the first down. Reminder: these get put in TA if they are a clear second option instead of an obvious way to pick up the first. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 8 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Post	Stonum	Inc
So like Purdue, Wisconsin's 4-3 alignment has featured safeties 7-8 yards off the LOS with a bias towards charging forward. Michigan goes after it this time around with a play action inverted veer look. Safety 1 sucks up and is dead, safety 2 sucks up and is dead, Stonum gets inside the cornerback and gets yards of separation on a 15-yard post that's either a diving ankle tackle for 20 yards or a touchdown like the Indiana post... Denard overthrows Stonum by five yards. Sad face. (INX, 0, protection 2/2, RPS +3)
M28	2	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Inverted veer keeper	Robinson	4
Aiiigh. Michigan goes with the Cam Newton, and I think Perry Dorrestein(-1) does not get his assignment right. He's blocking down on the playside DT, which is also what Omameh is doing. This allows the MLB to scrape unmolested. The playside DE is headed upfield to contain the handoff so Robinson pulls (ZR+1). Schilling's pulled around and kicks out the OLB, leaving Robinson one on one with that unblocked MLB in a ton of space. With one safety screaming playside to contain Smith and the other headed around the outside Denard is gone--gone--if he gets through the first level. A diving arm tackle succeeds in getting Denard down. Sadface.
RUN+:Omameh							RUN-: Dorrestein
M32	3	6	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB draw	Robinson	29
Safety in the box here for a seven-man front. Daring them to throw, except when M runs the QB draw it rips off a big chunk. Go figure. Schilling(+1) gets the key block at the line that gets a DT upfield and opens it up for Robinson. Omameh(+1) set his guy up well, allowing Smith(+1) to take a run at a linebacker not sure which side of the NT the play will go. Molk(+1) gets a block in space against the last linebacker and Robinson doesn't even have to cut until a safety attacks. He dodges the S(+2) and picks up another 15 before someone can run him down from behind when he cuts past the corner.
RUN+:Schilling, Omameh, Smith, Molk, Robinson(2)							RUN-:
O39	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Pass	Bubble screen	Roundtree	3
Linebackers in the box and soft man on the edges for the first time. Michigan attacks it with the bubble. Robinson's throw is behind Roundtree, forcing him to spin around and robbing him of an opportunity to attack the charging safety. (MA, 3, screen)
O36	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone dive	Smith	6
Same thing, other side of the line, with Huyge(+1) and Schilling(+1) doing the honors by blowing the backside DT yards off the LOS and giving Smith an easy six yards. Schilling peeled off the block to kick a charging MLB impressively, otherwise I'd think about knocking these down to halves. Backside DE again crashes to tackle.
RUN+:Huyge, Schilling							RUN-:
O30	3	1	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	1
Omameh(-1) gets slanted under by the backside DE, making this a difficult, hairy conversion that Robinson barely makes. Honestly it looks like the spot was a half-yard generous. (RPS -1) Huyge also slanted under so no cutback lane.
O29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone stretch	Smith	7
Backside DE contain; handoff (ZR+1). Wisconsin's playside DT too quick to get sealed and an attempted scoop on the playside DE gets run through. It's cutback time. Molk's block on the DT has driven him off the LOS. Huyge ran at the backside DT and kind of fell down in his general direction, which does not look like an effective block in any way but does force the guy about four yards downfield and opens the lane up further. Smith reads it, hits it, makes contact with the backside DT five yards downfield and gets tackled for six. Wow. So... um. Half points for Smith, Molk, and Huyge? Sure!
RUN+:Smith(0.5), Molk(0.5), Huyge(0.5)							RUN-:
O22	2	3	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	5
Double by Molk(+0.5) and Omameh(+0.5) drives the playside DT back; he attempts to swim through and Omameh kicks him out of the play. Molk's release is awkward since he's coming from inside the LB, but he pushes the guy past the play and gives Robinson a cutback lane. It's a cutback lane directly into a linebacker but it's good for the first. If M hadn't released oddly because of the swim this could have opened up for more, thus the halves. Smith(+1) got a good pounding block on another LB.
O17	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Pass	Bubble screen	Roundtree	Inc
In front of Roundtree by a yard; it glances off his fingertips. (IN, 0, screen)
O17	2	10	Shotgun empty TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB draw	Robinson	4
Offensive line has enough blockers to get Robinson one on one with a safety but it looks like Schilling(-1) loses his guy to the wrong side and forces a cutback; Omameh(+1) got a one on one block with the backside DT that got him on his butt four yards downfield and Robinson runs off that for a decent gain.
O13	3	6	Shotgun empty TE	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout out	Smith	Inc
Wisconsin goes with an aggressive look and sends six with man behind it. Smith runs an out past the sticks and is open for the first; Robinson sees it and throws it. This would hit any average-sized WR in the facemask but Smith is 5'6 and it glances off his hands. This is like throwing strikes to Eddie Gaedel. I can't give him an IN here, I don't think. (MA, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(30), 14 min 2nd Q. So… Robinson threw four passes on this drive, and all of them were IN or MA.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M36	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Inverted veer handoff	Smith	2
So the problem with this play is that Schilling ends up blocking no one on his pull. M leaves the playside DE unblocked, as you do on the veer, and pulls Schilling to the frontside as everyone else blocks down. Dorrestein releases into the MLB. Koger heads outside for the playside safety. This leaves the SLB. Schilling's pull actually has to go around the playside DE--he goes upfield of him, and as a result ends up chasing no one in space as the SLB runs out on Smith. Smith cuts it up, where the DE tackles. It was a correct handoff (ZR+1) with the DE biting inside but the inability of Schilling(-1) to block either guy kills the play. RPS -1.
RUN+:							RUN-: Schilling
M38	2	8	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB draw	Robinson	0
Opens up but for Omameh(-2) getting smoked by a DT, which closes off the intended hole and forces Robinson to bounce it outside where Valai has ample time to fill for no gain.
RUN+:							RUN-: Omameh(2)
M38	3	8	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	3-3-5 nickel	Pass	Flare screen	Smith	2
Smith runs out before the snap; Robinson pumps the throw, oddly. He still gets it out and accurate; Smith heads upfield. Roundtree's lost the guy inside but man there's a reason you don't go inside on this one; if Smith(-2) cuts it out he's got acres of space and the first down. He doesn't and Roundtree's guy collapses on him to tackle short of the sticks. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-10, 6 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M37	1	10	?	?	?	?	?	Pass	Hitch	Hemingway	3
We come to this play with the ball already in the air. Hemingway can't escape from the tackler this time and goes nowhere. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M40	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Slant	Stonum	Inc
Open for the first down, zinged in accurately and on time. Stonum drops the ball. Corner came up to hit him but the ball was already coming out when he arrived. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
M40	3	7	Shotgun empty	1	0	4	3-3-5 nickel	Pass	Slant	Hemingway	Inc
Another well timed throw, though this one is a bit low. Hemingway does bring it in briefly, but the Wisconsin DB is right with him and rakes it out as they go to the ground. Nice play. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-17, 3 min 2nd Q. Wisconsin scores, Gallon fumbles the kickoff, and M gets the ball back with 30 seconds left, running two QB draws and not trying to score. Not charted.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Post	Hemingway	Inc
A play action fake with just one receiver in the route; the same play Michigan tried and missed on with Stonum in the first half. This time the Wisconsin safety doesn't bite entirely--just mostly--and sits down in front of the route. Robinson overthrows Hemingway, which is better than throwing it to the safety. However, Robinson had time to let the play develop with good blocking and if he waits another second or two Hemingway clears the safety and he's got a 15 yard throw that's another hopeful ankle tackle or touchdown. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, RPS +2)
M29	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Stonum	9
Simple hitch against a backed-off corner good for five and then Stonum tacks on a few after the catch by running through the corner's tackle. Refs blow it dead just as Huyge comes up to bang him across the first down line. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M38	3	1	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Inside zone	Smith	3
Wisconsin runs a scrape exchange, sending the backside end in and running LBs over the top. Handoff made (ZR+1); Omameh(+1) and Dorrestein(+1) crush the playside DT off the ball and Webb(+1) cuts off the DE, giving Smith a window. He could cut for a big gain but trips coming through the hole.
RUN+:Dorrestein, Webb, Omameh							RUN-: Smith
M41	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	12
This seems like an instant response to the scrape Michigan saw on the last play. They come out in trips with a TE to the other side, which drags LBs to the strong side and the slot LB way outside the hashes. Linebackers suck in on the inside zone fake and the DE crashes so Robinson pulls(ZR+1), finding himself in a ton of space. Rolled up safety is supposed to contain but good luck with that, dude. Robinson falls as he cuts past the guy and that's all that keeps this at 12 yards. RPS+1.
RUN+:Robinson(2)							RUN-:
O47	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB stretch	Robinson	4
Wisconsin DL sliding down the line well and keeping the holes to a minimum. Molk(+1) does eventually get his helmet across, though and Omameh(+1) drives his man back as Michigan stretches the line; Robinson has a seam. Seam is filled by the safety, who beat Roundtree(-1) and can fill as Robinson threatens the second level.
RUN+:Molk, Omameh							RUN-: Roundtree
O43	2	6	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone dive	Hopkins	4
Backside DT finally stands up to the double decently, though he gets pushed back. Schilling comes off on the linebacker coming up the middle and Hopkins cuts behind Huyge into the other MLB, who is unblocked. He falls forward for a few.
RUN+:N/A							RUN-:
O40	3	2	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Smith	0
We get to the play late so I'm not sure why but the playside DE is left unblocked as Dorrestein moves out on someone or another, which lets that guy tackle two yards in the backfield. Certainly looks like a bust on Dorrestein's(-2) part, especially because this is the exact same play they just ran.
RUN+:							RUN-: Dorrestein(2)
O40	4	2	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Pass	PA rollout cross	Grady	13
This is the same route pattern from Odoms Way Down In The Hole. Playside slot runs an out, playside WR runs a deep hitch behind it, backside slot comes on a crossing route for a third option. Here the CB goes with the hitch and the playside safety jumps the out, opening Grady up on the cross. Robinson reads it and zings it into the open Grady a second before the safety can get there. Pass was a little behind Grady and the catch was tough-ish with the safety coming. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
O27	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	3
Michigan checks, flipping the RB, and Wisconsin checks from a soft-ish base 4-3 to the quasi eight man front they've been running all day. Watt drives through Dorrestein(-1) and forces Robinson to cut behind him, away from the driving double on the playside DT. This robs Omameh of an angle to get a second level block and Robinson runs into a linebacker after a few yards.
RUN+:							RUN-: Dorrestein
O24	2	7	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Stop and go	Stonum	24
Corner bites on the hitch fake but blocks Stonum's path as he attempts to release and gets himself in with a chance. Handfighting down the sidelines gets Stonum open by exactly one step; Robinson sits and fires a gorgeous looping ball over the corner's head and directly into Stonum's hands. Could not be better thrown. (DO+, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-24, 11 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O38	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Post	Stonum	34
Play action sucks the safety, who's already seven yards from the LOS, up a step and Stonum's gone. He's got a step or two on the DB; Robinson sees it and sets up to throw. He's getting pressure at his feet because Hopkins(-1) blew his chip on Watt. All he did was knock Huyge upfield and let Watt in. Robinson's throw is a little short, which is fine considering. Stonum then makes the best adjustment of his career by deploying a Manningham-quality move. He slows up, gets his body into the defender, and then releases at the last moment to haul in the over-the shoulder catch just over the outstretched arm of a cornerback he personally prevented from getting the half-yard he needed to break the pass up. Excellent. (CA, 1, protection 1/2, Hopkins -1)
O4	1	G	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	4-3 split	Run	Veer keeper	Robinson	4
Robinson keeps(ZR+1) as he sees the playside DE crash on Smith. M doubled the playside DE, allowing the S to scrape over the top, though, since this is four yards from the endzone. Robinson jukes him, then shoots inside of the befuddled, spinning DE, breaking his tackle and lunging into the endzone, where Dorrestein, Omameh, and the playside DT await.
RUN+:Robinson(2), Omameh, Dorrestein							RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-24, 9 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M43	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Roundtree	4
There's a linebacker right over the second slot WR who blows him up, forces the play inside, and tackles. Not sure why they're throwing this given UW's alignment. (CA, 3, screen) I guess I can't RPS-1 a four yard gain that Wisconsin had defended perfectly.
M47	2	6	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB stretch	Robinson	3
Michigan again can't seal the playside DT but does get the advantage on him as they run down the line. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) have two guys moving laterally three yards downfield as Robinson tries to find a hole; Dorrestein(-1) loses his DE to the inside and he tackles from behind. Cost Michigan 2-3 yards there.
50	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Zone stretch	Smith	3
Linebackers slid heavily to the side of the line with the H-back and Smith, probably in anticipation of a Robinson run. Schilling(+1) delays the backside DT, allowing Huyge to attempt a cut; it's stepped over but does open a cutback. Molk(-1) loses the playside DT and he can tackle from the side as Smith cuts it up. Smith takes a shot from another linebacker and manages to spin for the first down despite having a DT on his back.
RUN+:Smith, Schilling							RUN-: Molk
O47	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Post	Stonum	32
UW corner is lined up with inside position on Stonum but he still gets to the inside. With one safety at LB depth and the other dropping to the other side of the field Stonum's position allows Robinson to toss a ball up about three yards inside the pair; Stonum again keeps the DB on his back and makes a good catch for big yards. (CA, 2, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
O15	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone stretch	Smith	4
A similar story to previous stretches: Wisconsin DTs don't get sealed but in doing so give up a lot of ground and Smith runs to the sideline, gaining a chunk of yards but nothing explosive with the playside DT coming through Omameh about four yards downfield.
RUN+:N/A							RUN-:
O11	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Robinson	11
Michigan blocks down and pulls for the first time. Koger(+1) seals Watt. He gets chucked eventually but it's too late. Molk(+2) obliterates the MLB with a devastating cut. Playside LB and S have to contain, with Schilling(+1) kicking out the playside LB, and Robinson can cruise into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-31, 3 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M28	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout hitch	Roundtree	16
This is now a staple of the offense: Denard rolls, Roundtree is singled up against a safety ten yards off the LOS, and he runs a ten-yard hitch the opponent can't cover without risking a big play as the linebackers are all in run mode. Easy first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS+1)
M44	1	10	Shotgun H-back?	1	1	3	?	Run	Inside zone?	Smith	6
We're looking at John Clay instead of the play. This may have been a veer, actually.
50	2	4	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone stretch	Smith	5
Safeties are now at regular safety depth FWIW. Wisconsin slants hard playside with the backside DT giving ground without engaging, as the Badgers have done most of the game on stretch plays. With the backside DE containing (ZR+1) the hard slant allows Smith a cutback lane. Huyge(+1) engages the DT as he cuts it up.
RUN+:Smith, Huyge							RUN-:
O45	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	PA TE Flat	Webb	9
Corner blitz to the playside is awkward, forcing Denard to pump and loft a touch pass over the guy that Webb leaps for and turns up for a good gain as he beats the UW LB to the sideline. Robinson had just this option and getting this pass with enough loft and getting it in a place where Webb isn't immediately tackled for two yards is impressive. (DO, 2, protection N/A, RPS -1)
O36	2	1	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Grady	0
Pass is too far in front of Grady and he ends up lunging forward to catch it, falling for no gain. (IN, 2, screen)
O36	3	1	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	4
With a twist: the running back is Webb. I wonder what's coming? Oh. Watt beats Dorrestein(-1) inside. This happens sometimes but here Dorrestein is driven back, which means Webb can't cut outside and change the angle of his block. He bumps into the pair, sending Watt sprawling. He then bounces off that and does get a block(+1) on the playside LB, which allows Robinson to squeeze out the first.
RUN+:Webb, Robinson							RUN-: Dorrestein
O32	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Hitch	Roundtree	Inc
Wisconsin sends six and doesn't get there, giving Robinson his choice of open targets. Roundtree's open on that same hitch again; Webb has no one within ten yards of him on a flat route. Robinson picks Roundtree, puts it right in his chest, and sees 'Tree drop it. (CA, 3, protection 3/3)
O32	2	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	?	?	Int
Robinson drops to pass and throws; Watt bats it and picks it off. (BA, N/A, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 21-38, 12 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Rollout scramble	Robinson	2
Wisconsin covers both receivers and while Robinson has an opportunity to hit Koger by the time he does he's already decided to run up the sideline. (TA, N/A, protection 1/1)
M19	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB down G	Robinson	2
Watt destroys Koger(-2), running through his down block and losing him so quickly that Smith can't adjust; Robinson had a lane inside for decent yardage thanks to some cutbacks on the backside.
RUN+:							RUN-: Koger(2)
M21	3	6	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Post	Roundtree	28
This is a four verticals concept, I think, but run from trips that means Roundtree has to run a post to get to the seam on the far side of the field. UW has just one deep safety and the linebackers get lost, failing to drop back. They've been coached to defend four verts but probably didn't recognize it out of this formation. Roundtree breaks wide open; Robinson hits him with a touch pass that hits him in stride; safety does manage to cut Roundtree's legs out and prevent a TD. (DO, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
M49	1	10	Shotugn trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Pass	Rollout sack	?	-4
Spielman is spending the entirety of this drive bitching about the defense. Michigan rolls the pocket, with Dorrestein(-1) allowing the playside DT to run upfield outside of him without bothering to deal with it. Michigan's routes are all covered on the roll side except maybe Hemingway at the LOS, but that's going to get like three yards. DT comes in on Robinson as he sets to throw; he pulls it down and dodges the guy but takes a hit and falls as he does so. (TA, N/A, protection 0/2, Dorrestein -2)
M45	2	14	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Robinson	14
Molk is going to double one DT and shove him to Schilling; as he does this the DT moves upfield himself in an attempt to get pass rush. This gets Robinson through the line. Downfield, Koger, Grady, and Molk(+1s all) get great downfield blocks. Robinson runs straight upfield to draw the safety and LB on Grady in, then tries to cut outside past them; safety manages to tackle before he can break it outside and threaten TD.
RUN+:Molk, Grady, Koger, Omameh							RUN-:
O41	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Roundtree	21
All day as the line gets Robinson a fantastic pocket. Wisconsin goes with zone, and unintentionally high-lows the MLB. The line opened up a big running lane for Robinson so the LB is naturally wary of dropping too deep and allowing him to jet, which means he's six yards off the LOS as Roundtree is running a hitch behind him at 15. Robinson sees the opening and hits it; throw is a bit high but not too bad. (CA, 3, protection 3/3)
O20	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Yakety sax	?	-8
Michigan going for a bubble when Smith runs by Robinson and knocks the ball out of his hands.
O28	2	18	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Seam	Roundtree	28
PA fake eliminates LBs in the middle of the field, leaving Roundtree against what must be zone from the slot LB and a safety. Slot LB chucks but leaves a window; Robinson zings it in as Roundtree gets between levels. That's a first down; Roundtree turns it into six by juking the safety and darting upfield before people can tackle him from behind. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-41, 6 min 4th Q. Forcier enters with Michigan down 20 on the next drive. EOG.

DID YOU KNOW I AM A RAVING LUNATIC?

I suspected, surely.

I THINK THE MICHIGAN OFFENSE IS SECRETLY NOT GOOD BECAUSE THE TEAM HAS FALLEN BEHIND IN GAMES AND COULD NOT CATCH UP IN THE SECOND HALF.

Second half and first half points count the same and while I could see some sort of argument that Wisconsin had lightened up on the pressure because they were ahead by so much, they didn't do that. They remained very aggresive until the last drive I charted above, whereupon they backed the safeties off to safety depth… and Roundtree immediately caught three balls for 28, 21, and 28 yards. There's one play in the whole game you can chalk up to Wisconsin having a big lead: a QB draw that worked on Michigan's final TD drive.

BUT THEY DID NOT SCORE ONE MILLION POINTS.

This is true. There are a couple obvious reasons for this. One: Wisconsin grind time and the Gallon fumble limited Michigan to nine drives above. Remember being super excited about everything after the UConn game? That was a 30-point performance on eight real drives with a missed extra point. This was a 28-point performance on nine real drives with a missed 30 yard field goal. The other is in the--

CHART

--charts.

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR	ZR	DSR
2009, All Of It	1	7	6(2)	3(1)	4	4	-	-	?	-	44%
UConn	2	15(6)	-	-	3	2	-	-	2	-	68%
Notre Dame	3	25(8)	3(1)	4	1	-	4(1)	2	-	-	71%
UMass	4	10(3)	-	1	1	-	1	1	-	-	73%
BGSU	1	4(1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1/1	N/A
Indiana	2	8(2)	1(1)	5(1)	-	-	-	-	-	9/11	66%
Michigan State	4	14(3)	1	7(1)	1	-	-	2	2	N/A	68%
Iowa	1	11(3)	2	3(1)	2	-	1	-	-	3/4	64%
Penn State	3	12(3)	1	4	2	-	1	-	-	6/10	63%
Illinois	4	9(1)	1	4	1	3	1(1)	-	-	3/4	60%
Purdue	2	12(1)	1	3	1	1	1	3	-	8/10	68%
Wisconsin	3	14(2)	2(1)	4(2)	-	2	2	-	-	8/8	71%

TATE FORCIER

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR	ZR	DSR
Iowa	3	14	1	2	4	-	-	1	1	N/A	74%
Illinois	2	11	-	-	2	3	-	-	1	3/4	72%
Purdue	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	2	N/A	N/A

Well, maybe not obvious from this chart. But it's in there. Robinson had a bounce back day, completing 64% and averaging almost 10 YPA, but in the first half he racked up almost all of the MA and INs you see above, three of them on screens that may have been open but never had the opportunity to develop. Early his inability to hit Stonum deep allowed Wisconsin to continue pressuring the run game. In the second half he turned those inaccurate passes into complete bombs to Stonum and touchdowns resulted.

The other bit is hidden in this chart with the receivers:

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Stonum	1	1/1	1/1	2/3		9	2/7	7/12	19/19
Odoms	: (	-	-	-		1	1/1	3/4	11/11
Hemingway	1	0/1	-	1/1		8	3/5	4/6	23/27
Stokes	-	-	-	-		-	-	1/2	-
Roundtree	1	-	1/1	6/7		12	2/3	6/9	37/41
Grady	-	-	2/2	-		4	1/1	5/5	8/9
T. Robinson	-	-	-	-		-	0/1	-	2/3
Gallon	-	-	-	-		1	-	-	4/4
Koger	-	-	-	-		-	-	2/3	9/9
Webb	-	-	1/1	-		2	-	1/1	4/5
Smith	-	-	0/1	1/1		3	-	0/3	13/13
Shaw	-	-	-	-		1	0/1	0/1	5/6
McColgan	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	1/1
Hopkins	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Toussaint	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-

A couple of key drops added to the passing game issues in the first half. Consecutive accurate slants hit the ground on one of Michigan's three and outs, one a pure drop by Stonum, the other raked out by the guy on covering Hemingway.

On the other hand, this was probably the best game of Stonum's career. This is some Manningham-level stuff right here:

That ball is short and Stonum knows it so he slows up, uses his body to shield the defender so he can't break it up, then extends to make a great over the shoulder catch. He also did this:

And this:

He's got too long of a track record to dismiss his previous struggles, but hey, I'll take it.

GHLARGERAGERAGGG

PROTECTION METRIC: 31/37, Dorrestein –2, Smith –2, Hopkins –1, McColgan –1.

FLARBALARGALARGALARG

RPS: 10-4 = +6.

GALONGBALUNGGALAAAAARP

A sparse run chart, as Michigan only had about 28 charted:

 

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Huyge	2.5	0	2.5	Run game seemed to tilt the other way.
Lewan	-	-	-	DNP
Schilling	5	2	3
Molk	7	1	6	No reaches but some good blocks otherwise.
Omameh	10.5	3	7.5	Surprisingly the focus of the run game. Executed a lot of grinding double teams.
Khoury	-	-	-	DNP
Dorrestein	4.5	5	-0.5	Pretty meh.
Webb	2	-	2	The usual
Koger	2	2	0	Also the usual.
TOTAL	33.5	23	20.5	Solid blocking day.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Robinson	6	-	6	Perfect ZR day, even got a keeper.
Gardner	-	-	-	DNP
Forcier	-	-	-	Not charted.
Shaw	-	-	-	DNP
Smith	3	3.5	-0.5	Missed a cut on a third down conversion, just ok otherwise.
Cox	-	-	-	DNP
Toussaint	-	-	-	Like three snaps.
Hopkins	-	-	-	Did not score.
McColgan	-	-	-	DNP.
Jones	-	-	-	DNP
TOTAL	9	3.5	5.5	Not getting much more than the blockers give them.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Stonum	-	-	-	--
Odoms	-	-	-	--
TRobinson	-	-	-	--
Roundtree	-	1	-1	--
Grady	1	-	1	--
Gallon	-	-	-	--
Hemingway	-	-	-	--
TOTAL	1	1	0	--
Metrics

Michigan averaged 5.2 YPC minus sacks, which is on par with the best performances on the ground against Wisconsin this year but does add in the two first half scrambles that were not charted. Without those that gets knocked down to okay, not great. The tradeoff for the Badgers was giving up 10 YPA in the air.

Heroes?

Stonum, second half Denard.

Goats?

First half Denard.

What does it mean for Ohio State?

Michigan should be able to move the ball but we've seen enough breakdowns over the course of the season to know this offense is not quite at the point where they can expect to run up and down the field against a very good defense. Drops, penalties, inaccurate throws, etc, all conspire to end drives. OSU's had some injury issues, especially at safety, and I'm expecting they'll put up points. Not enough to keep up, obviously.