tate forcier

Q&A

Hey Brian,

Anyways, you've mentioned several times that you have season tix—do you also attend all road games?  I suppose Sparty is probably a given, but have you traveled to, say, Kinnick or Camp Randall?  My goal is to visit all the B10 stadiums (been to 5 so far - MSU, PU, PSU, NW & UM obvs), and I was wondering if you had a favorite road venue or notable road game that sticks out to you (07 MSU for me).  This season I'll be going to State for the 2nd time as well as Illinois Memorial for the first time. 
Once again, many thanks for the excellence of the blog.

Crapfully yours,
Steve (MH20)
P.S. Autodesk sucks.  I hate them.
P.P.S. M-Den is full of win.

I don't go to all the road games but I usually hit 1-3 per year depending on how the team is doing and where the road games are. I've been to Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, and Northwestern, with a first trip to Iowa on the docket this year. (I'm also going to Madison, but in February for an outdoor hockey game.) To your questions: Northwestern is my favorite road venue, if only because it's a road venue in little but name and it's situated next to Lake Michigan and there's always some place to crash because if you went to Michigan and don't know anyone who lives in Chicago you probably lived in Baits all four years and never left your room. Also no one attempts to throttle you. I'm annoyed when NU isn't on the schedule.

Favorite game: also '07 MSU for multiple reasons. There was, of course, the lead up to the game with Dantonio and "moment of silence" and "we won two games today" and Mike Hart etc etc etc. I ended up in the Michigan student section, which was a jolt after a few years away from that scene in one of the real blue-hair sections of Michigan Stadium. And two minutes before the opening kickoff an idiot state fan chewing on an unlit cigar accused me of sitting in his seat. I wasn't, but the State fan insisted to the point where he got the ushers, who were all prepared to do some bootin' until they saw I was actually in my seat. It turned out that the guy had the seat next to mine. He eventually swapped with some Michigan students who were three rows below us. It was weird.

Anyway, all that meant I was pretty fired up. And then the way the game turned, with Michigan jumping out to a significant halftime lead and State coming back to lead by 3 and then 10 and then someone whacking Chad Henne's shoddy Southeast Asian motherboard in just the right spot, followed by robot Henne enacting a mini version of Braylonfest… well, it was extremely satisfying afterwards.

PS: Hey, Autodesk provided yrs truly with the nest egg via which the blog's first couple of years as a job—in the same way Walmart greeter is a job—were tolerable. Also I still have some stock of theirs. So go Autodesk.

PPS: Yes, now that you mention it, the M-Den is full of win. Also when you do not mention it.

Brian,

I noticed during the game and again in your UFR that Will Campbell got zero playing time against ND. This was especially evident in the 2nd half when it seemed that the dline was rotating new guys in on every play with WC not one of them. I also recall he only played in scrub time against Western. With a dline sorely lacking depth, is Campbell in the doghouse? Is he not as good as we thought? Or is this more a case of a freshman just being behind veterans on the depth chart. For a dline sorely lacking depth, it seems hard to believe a highly recruited player cant crack this rotation, even as a freshman.

Thanks, and Go Blue!

(This email was sent before the EMU game, but remains relevant now because Campbell saw a couple of goal line plays and little else.) Dude: I don't know. I'm seriously bothered by the prevalence of walk-ons in the two-deep and the lack of mega-recruits. Justin Turner didn't see the field at all against Eastern—even Teric Jones did—and now looks like a certain redshirt. Demens, Fitzgerald, and Smith are all apparently behind walk-on Kevin Leach at linebacker. And erstwhile spring starter Vlad Emilien is behind Kovacs and possibly Van Slyke at safety.

At least Campbell has an excuse that's a bit better than those guys: Renaldo Sagesse is about the only legitimate depth player on the entire defense and has turned in a fair number of plays in limited time spelling Mike Martin. He's getting about the same amount of time you'd expect a third-string freshman to get, no matter how hyped.

I'd like to see Michigan try running Martin and Sagesse out there at the same time, like everyone else; if that happens with some consistency against big beef machine teams then Campbell will see more extensive time.

Brian,
During Rich Rod's first summer, we were looking forward to bringing in Kevin Newsome and Shavodrick Beaver at QB.  Both guys were relatively unpolished but with high upside.  Not the type of guys that you would be comfortable with to start as freshmen to say the least.  Do you think that RR anticipated a rocky first year and the need to win early in year two, and possibly directed Michigan's recruiting more toward QBs able to come in and play right away?  Would you even go so far to say that Michigan may have cooled on Newsome and Beaver at the chance they land Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.  Regardless, as a trade, we got the better end of the deal.

Ryan

I have no idea what happened with Michigan's quarterback recruiting but have heard from a couple reliable sources that Kevin Newsome's commitment was always as solid as paper tissue and that was one reason Michigan continued to pursue Tate Forcier heavily despite having two guys nominally in the fold. (The other reason: duh.) I mentioned this at the time and will restate it now: while Kevin Newsome seemed to have excellent upside he was not a great fit for what Michigan needed this year. They needed Tate Forcier, a guy who'd been relentlessly drilled to be a quarterback from the womb and would be polished (and foolhardy) enough to step into the starting lineup fresh out of high school. Newsome, who's looked inept so far in spring and limited garbage time, was not that guy. Was that motivation to get rid of Newsome? Probably not. I think Michigan would have taken three quarterbacks last year if they could have latched onto that many.

Beaver I don't know about. He was a well-regarded recruit who supposedly picked up an offer from Texas to play wide receiver, so you'd think Michigan would try to hold onto him even if they were gaga about Denard Robinson (which, again: duh), too. I don't think either decommit was a Jordan Barnes sort.

Brian,

I have a question re: the defensive alignments.  In the Notre Dame Defensive UFR, you commented a couple of times on the fact that Michigan's pre-snap alignments made no sense.  Who's responsibility is it for the way the defense aligns?  The coaches obviously put in the personnel package as far as a 4-3-4, 4-2-5, but they cannot know until the offense lines up what type of look they are going to get.  Does a player (I'm assuming it'd be Obi since he's the MLB and they are traditionally the "quarterback of the offense") set up the defense or do the players look to the sideline for direction from their coaches?  Thanks in advance.

Go Blue!

Matt

The only presnap alignments that I found bizarre were the ones in which Obi Ezeh aligned at safety depth a few times on obvious passing downs. That was indeed strange. The only thing I can figure is that it was a version of the Tampa two defense that's popular in the NFL. Tampa two allows you to bracket both outside receivers without giving up the deep middle—an excellent idea against Notre Dame's terrors on the outside, but maybe not so much when ND also has a great pass-receiving tight end. And when Michigan did line up in their weird Ezeh-as-safety formation, ND hit Kyle Rudolph on a simple slant that went for big yardage.

I've seen Michigan roll out the same formation once so far against EMU, so it might be something we see occasionally down the road. I've yet to determine what the point of it is.

No Q Just A

On to some emails that are more helpful than anything else.

Brian,
Just wanted to add some more evidence re: your post on the noise level at the new stadium.  Yes, it is absolutely, positively louder.  Carl Grapentine, long-time voice of the MMB and now the PA guy, too, wrote me this after the game this weekend:

It was as loud as I've ever heard it at Michigan Stadium. Those two new massive structures on either side of the field are like giant resonators.

Keep in mind this is Carl's 40th year doing games from the press box; that's a pretty significant body of work from which to make that statement.  Didn't want to post this in the public comments, though.
I have the same beef with the MMB as you; I was in section 13 at the WMU game and we could hardly hear the band.  Thought it might just be the placement, but think your analysis is right.  Needs more horns, less winds.
BTW, love the blog; it's part of my daily must-reads.
GO BLUE!
John
UM class of '87

Johnathan Chapman-Rienstra (JCR)

FWIW. More fuel for the luxury box fire.

No A Just Q

Questions I can't answer:

I was at the Eastern/UM game Saturday and noticed the student section doing a chant where they extend their arms at the opposing team and wiggle their fingers... sort of like they're "jinxing" them. It sounds like the students are saying, "boo" or "ooh." At first I thought it was the "key play" chant where they shake their keys, but there were no keys in their hands. Can you enlighten me?

Um… I have no idea what this email refers to. Any help?

Brian,

I'm pretty sure your tickets aren't near mine.  I sit in section 19, row 76.
As long as I've been in these seats, and my old seats in section 17, fifteen years or so, there's been an old guy with a knit cap that sits near the very front of (I think) section 18.  After every Michigan TD, he would go down to the front row, stand up, face the crowd, and get the crowd involved in a cheer where he (and the fans) would spell out M-I-C-H-I-G-A-N with his arms.

After sitting through every minute (!) of every home game, AND the ND game at ND last year, I did not make it to the ND game this year.  (I know, I know...)  However, I was at Western and Eastern.  And Old Michigan Spelling Guy (i don't know anything better to call him) wasn't at EITHER game.  My wife and I are very concerned.

The guy I call "Superfan" (wears the cape, helmet pattern do-rag, glasses, plays cowbell, gets on TV at a lot of away games) also sits near the front and has taken over the M-I-C-H-I-G-A-N spelling.  I love "Superfan" and his mad-crazy cowbell skills, but it isn't the same for the M-I-C-H-I-G-A-N.  And beyond just football games, I really do care about Old Michigan Spelling Guy.

Do you know, or can you ask your vast readership if anyone knows, the fate of Old Michigan Spelling Guy?  Hopefully, he's just evangelizing in another part of the stadium.

Thanks much,
Mike

I am nowhere near this guy but I have seen him from across the stadium and envied those sections for being near a guy doing the Michigan locomotive cheer because some old guy demanded they do it. Anyone have an answer for this emailer?

[Editor's Note: Mad Men spoilers below. Abort now if you care even a little bit. UPDATE: you'll be safe if you skip the blockquote.]

9/21/2009 – Michigan 45, Eastern Michigan 17 – 3-0

I'd never heard 100,000 people moan before. I've heard gasps and anger and worry and fretting and relief. I've heard an involuntary yelp of hope after Drew Stanton went down in the game that would be Braylonfest. I've heard way more than my share of discontent grumbling. I know all the tiny permutations of discontent grumbling, actually. I could write a PhD thesis on discontent stadium grumbles.

I had not heard a unified, angst-ridden moan until Saturday when Tate Forcier got blasted as he threw the ball away and rolled around on the Michigan Stadium turf like he'd just been stabbed. I sort of felt like I'd been stabbed, too, and I went "uhhhnnn." So did everyone else as we simultaneously contemplated the Sheridans of yesteryear. But before we could open up the flak jacket and find the secret, Forcier popped up and Rodriguez stuck him in to hand off a few times, thus saving everyone an extra hour or two of painful contemplation. The most interesting thing to happen in the Eastern Michigan game expired without impact.

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It's quite a comedown to go from the Notre Dame game to this game in just about every way. Emotional involvement and excitement are obvious to anyone who saw the two teams listed as opponents. Hidden to folk who just saw the final score, but not the halftime one, was a reminder that the program remains, yes, under construction and that we should all be enjoying the competence instead of spinning out hopes for New Year's Day.

The main problem: Eastern Michigan ran the ball decently, and it wasn't on one long run on which Michigan can blame a random safety. EMU's long for the day was a 24-yarder by the quarterback and the dual-headed tailback pounded out 113 yards on 32 carries. That's 3.5 a pop and would have been totally acceptable if Michigan had flipped their first and second halves. (In the second half, Eastern put up 98 yards and no points on seven drives.) They didn't. Michigan gave up an 11-play, 79 yard touchdown drive and a 6-play, 36 yard touchdown drive, and did it mostly by running right at the side of the line not containing Mike Martin and Brandon Graham. For the day, Michigan was slightly better than Army and evidently terrible Northwestern defensively, which bodes unwell for the sky-high hopes you know you're secretly harboring. Search your heart. You know it to be true.

The evidence was clear enough on a selected few defensive snaps in the second half. With Mike Williams nursing a slight ankle injury on the sideline and Brandon Graham taking a breather, Michigan's purported first-team defense had three walk-ons playing. I can't remember a single non-fullback walk-on other than Nick Sheridan in recent Michigan history who saw playing time as extensive as three separate players have already gotten this year, and everyone remembers how Sheridan's experiment went. If Michigan is going to win games in the Big Ten, they're going to have to score a lot of points. They'll probably do this, but at the end of the year the stats are going to look more like one of those good-ish Northwestern teams from the late 90s, all shiny offensive stats and horrible defensive ones and entertaining games that give you no impression the team in question can hang with college football's elite.

And all of this is fine, of course. If Michigan's offense follows through on its first three weeks and the defense holds it together well enough to suggest competence in 2010, Michigan fans will and should be delighted. I'm not exactly breaking new ground by suggesting this team is not at the talent level you'd normally expect a Michigan team to be at, and I'm probably not surprising anyone by cautioning for patience. But I feel it has to be said after Orson Swindle and I had a conversation like this:

(11:23:10 PM) Orson: I cannot emphasize how improved by a random act of violent gore an episode of Mad Men was.. Paul being splattered with blood should happen every episode

(11:24:58 PM) Orson: "I live in Montclair." /SPLATTERED WITH BLOOD
(11:25:28 PM) Orson: "I went to Princeton." /SPLATTERED WITH BLOOD

(11:25:53 PM) Brian I prefer Harry, actually. "I cheated on my wife and actually regret it." /SPLATTERED WITH BLOOD. I also loved how the English guys immediately treated him as a horse that had to be put down.

(11:26:52 PM) Orson: "Oh no, he's done." "Quite right. No foot. Dead to us."

(11:27:04 PM) Brian "never play golf again"!!!

[Several more minutes of Mad Men discussion segues into this]

Orson: BTW, let me congratulate you on having a player sucker punch an ND player in the gut I'm serious. That is nothing but a great sign for your program.

(11:39:46 PM) Brian: It was the chin, actually. And we even got a totally unprecedented "you're going to be Miami" suspension out of it.

(11:40:57 PM) Orson: You are starting to get an idea of the vast power of the dark side.

[This continues for a while until:]

Orson: For once, I enjoy watching Michigan thanks to them. I think you're going to beat the f-- out of Ohio State this year.

You know me: I immediately attempted to convince Orson—who is awesome but prone to wild prognostications based on things the thinks are going to be fun—otherwise. It didn't take. "Whoah," I said, and then overreacted as you can see above.

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Right now, Michigan is an Easter egg dropped out of a window during an engineering competition. It's small. It's moving extremely fast. It's brightly colored and looks like it contains a good time. It is heading inexorably for something large and uncompromising, and all it has to protect it is a rickety structure slapped together last night out of Busch Light cans, foam, and an unidentifiable oozing substance someone found next to the refrigerator. It's probably not going to make it, but for the moment it's time to enjoy the wind.

BULLETS

• Wooo complete Michigan wave cycle!
• Man, I do not like the fact that Michigan has scholarship players who aren't true freshmen at DE and LB but chooses to play walk-ons over them. No offense to those guys, but they were walk-ons for a reason. Unless they are spectacularly advanced thinkers at the game, their ceiling is low and Michigan's defense has little upside as the season goes along. Brandon Smith can be excused since he was a safety until fall camp, but how do Kenny Demens and JB Fitzgerald not see the field in front of Leach? That's a bad sign for both their futures. Ditto Adam Patterson, who looks set to go down as one of the all-time pure talent recruiting busts. Even a huge disappointment like Kevin Grady has gotten regular playing time every year.
• I do think I have an idea why Fitzgerald wasnt seeing the field: when he did he did not play well. I'll have to check the tape but IIRC one of Eastern's TDs was on his head. I really, really hope someone emerges from the linebacker morass this year. Right now it's terrifying.
• Losing Molk is bad but it's way less bad than it was last year. Michigan has three or four options to bring into the lineup at RG—sounds like Moosman will slide over to C. Who were Michigan's options last year? Tim McAvoy?
• Man, the backup tailbacks looked good. Remember this run?

  

  Michael Shaw has got to start wearing crazy tight oily jerseys, because he juked that Eastern safety out of his jock and deserved a spectacular touchdown run on this play; he didn't get it because that grab you saw actually held up. Shaw looked like Carlos Brown 2.0 in some ways and the opposite of Carlos Brown in others. The difference: Brown always looks like he's perfectly balanced and then falls over; Shaw always looks like he's about to fall over but stays up.

  Meanwhile, Vincent Smith's lone run featured an impressive juke of the backside defensive end and a first down thanks to a heads-up block from Denard Robinson, and Mike Cox got it YGM style on a weaving run on which he displayed his own impressive balance. With Fitzgerald Toussaint, Austin White and Stephen Hopkins on the way, the tailback spot will be just fine next year.

• Meanwhile, how the hell did Carlos Brown end up getting tackled by this?

  

  Great game and all but sometimes the things that cause Carlos Brown to fall over are mystifying.

• Students: it's impolite to start up chants when someone's hurt. "Tate Forcier" was fine, but there was a "Go… Blue" chant at some point when an Eastern guy was down. Poor form.

Yet another in this site's series "counters to the scrape exchange." 

This one doesn't take a whole lot of explanation. Michigan's in its H-back set and Notre Dame in the nickel it used all day. It's first and ten on Michigan's field-goal drive right before halftime:

Michigan's going to run something I called a "QB counter"; it, I believe, is not a read but a called QB run. Just like the dive play we saw yesterday, the TE (in this case Martell Webb) is going to pull across the formation and look for a block. LT Mark Ortmann, the topmost offensive lineman, is going to downblock on the weakside defensive tackle. But you'll do fine on this play if you just watch #80. He's the whole play.

Here we have a moment right before the key part of the play. Forcier has pulled the ball out of Minor's belly and Webb is approaching the point at which he's supposed to block the defensive end.

So Webb reaches the DE and… uh… runs right by him.

Here note two things. One: Ortmann has not done a great job with the DT, who has apparently read the play or was stunting or something and has shot into the backfield. This held the defensive end up. Normally on a scrape he'd be hauling ass after Minor, but since he got delayed he's right there and sees Forcier with the ball. Two: Webb ignored that guy and is heading right for the scraper. Tate has to deal with the DE.

Next, the moment of truth:

One: Forcier has beaten the defensive end despite the screwup/stunt by Notre Dame. This is MAKING PLAYS, and something it's doubtful either Threet or Sheridan could have pulled off. Two: Webb has blocked the scraper. Crushed him.

Forcier, well…

look at all that space

nooooooooo cut it up cut it up

…dangit.

Object lessons:

• This is another scrape counter. This one didn't go very well for whatever reason and it still should have been 8-10 yards because Michigan has blocked the one guy tasked with the quarterback.
• Assuming your guy with the quarterback isn't going to get blocked can be dangerous for the defense. The scrape read presumes that your guy tasked with the QB isn't going to get lit up by a tight end, and it's hard to see any way to read what's going on to help out. The only player who can be of assistance is the backside DE, and that pulling tight end can do so many different things—block the scraper, block you and spring Brandon Minor up the middle, head out into the flat, pass block—that you're really picking your poison.
• I don't think it matters what side the guy gets blocked on… usually. Here Webb gets outside of the scraper and that's key because of the defensive end's presence, but if that guy's not there it makes no difference because Tate will be jetting up into massive space on either side of the block.
• Rodriguez's offseason planning was hugely focused on the TE. This was something we talked about in UFR, but it's worth repeating. There was a lot of hype about Michigan's tight ends and that hype has been more than met. A TE is on the field 90% of the time and has been a huge key in Michigan's ground game. Rodriguez has adapted to the scrape exchange and his counter is the tight end. At this point I'm actually a little concerned Michigan doesn't have a tight end in the recruiting class.
• Tate needs to realize he's no longer way more athletic than everyone on the field. He's done this three or four time in his first two games. It worked against Western,  but not so much here.

This ended up being three yards, but it should have been ten, and holy God what if Denard Robinson was out there in that kind of space?

UPDATE: forgot the youtube-o-vision:

Thinking about making this a regular feature when the inevitable corrections/comments come up on the 14k (this week) words put into UFR:

On the Savoy "drop" in the endzone. Millen's right and the ball got tipped, so I bumped that to a 2. Good if he brings it in, not a pure drop.

On Tate's interception. I doubted Greg Mathews' words here but everyone says I'm wrong in the comments, this guy most authoritatively:

Matthews made the wrong read

as a former Div I WR, I can confirm that this was on Matthews - the read was to settle in the seam - Forcier read the seam in underneath coverage and the DB running deep - there was a clear hole in the zone - Forcier read it and Matthews missed it - if he settles there, complete pass and he turns it up for a few more yards

Withdrawn. I don't have a category for "receiver runs wrong route," so I'll just redact the BR. Pretty remarkable that the huge "oh noes, freshman" screwup in the game was actually on the senior wide receiver, not the freshman.

On Cissoko. Okay, okay, I definitely shouldn't have said he's "not any good" after all of two games, especially considering the shoulder injury. That's going too far. But, man, even Rodriguez acknowledged that he had a rough day on Saturday:

Boubacar didn't have his best game, but he's a good football player, and he's a competitor, and I'm sure he'll come back and play better the next time.

So I stand by the assessment. He's unlikely to be so negative again if only because he's not going to face Michael Floyd. Can the Cissoko War in the user-generated content areas end now?

On Minor and thumping blocks. I failed to notice Brandon Minor totally burying a Notre Dame defensive end on the Odoms third down conversion:

RAGE.

On Koger and Webb. I misattributed a couple of excellent run blocks, saying they were Koger's when they were Webb's. Recalibrate your sensors on the tight ends accordingly.

On the run game. Genuinely Sarcastic has its run chart up; the right side of the line grades out very well, especially Molk and Moosman. A +4 from Huyge offsets some of his pass protection issues, which were mostly of the –1 annoyance variety instead of the –2 oh crap our QB is dead variety. Also oh snap from the GS comments:

Tate's TD run is omitted because it wasn't a designed run. That and I'm pretty sure there aren't enough plus signs in the world to accurately represent what he did to Darius Fleming.

Oh snap.

On "ability." Yes, yes:

Brian, again, it's ABILITY to destroy a planet.

Not Power.

We've been over this.

It's even written correctly right above!

I don't know which illegal, Translated-by-Taiwanese, rip-off videocassettes of the Star Wars Trilogy you've been watching, but I'm sending you a copy of Episode IV anyway (sorry -- it has the stupid Jabba scene and Greedo shooting twice. Keep your remote handy).

I'm sorry. Here' a picture of Pirate Yoda:

I assume this fixes everything. Hyyyarrr.

Personnel notes: this was the most boring opponent D personnel ever. ND spent the entire game aside from a few goal line plays in a 4-2-5 nickel with Sergio Brown acting as a sort of S/LB hybrid over the slot receivers. Michigan's base set is 1 TE, 1 RB, and 3 WR, pending the return to full health of Brandon Minor.

If you just want to skip to the heroin, here's an HD version of the final drive from Askarpo.

Woooooo!

Woooooo!

Wooo—

Right.

Okay.

Right.

Should I send my daughter to Forcier's harem or am I still holding out for Tom Brady when it comes to siring the next generation of Michigan quarterbacks?

Sounds like a job for a chart (chart)

(Hennechart again; MA is "marginal")

TATE FORCIER

(I'm going to put the screen numbers in parens from now on.)

DENARD ROBINSON

I won't continue charting Sheridan, as… well… obviously. Denard didn't throw any passes, he just ran.

Forcier's downfield success rate* in this game is 19 / 29 = 66%, and it should be noted that a couple of the TAs were successful scrambles; our DSR metric probably underrates wheeling Jackson Pollocks relative to Navarre sorts since it files scrambles as TAs. Also, five DOs is a large number. That was a performance that, remarkably, just about deserves the adulation it's received in the aftermath.

So it's really easy to pick out that Terrelle Pryor has a 99th percentile skill in being huge and fast and this gets you #1 recruit status; two games in it looks like Tate Forcier has 99th percentile skill in accuracy on the run, pocket awareness, and (yep) moxie. I don't know if I'd trade Forcier for Pryor, and who on earth would have been able to state that without getting laughed at two weeks ago?

Okay, okay, there were some rough spots: that interception winged so far over Mathews head there must have been some screwup; Mathews blamed himself but he was running into open space so if it was an option route he got it right. And Forcier almost caused a cascade of BOOM MALLETTED jokes when he chucked a dangerous ball as he was being sacked. Also: Forcier's maddening tendency to bounce his keepers outside cost Michigan 10-15 yards over the course of the game. I assume that latter will be relatively easy to fix.

Nits, all. The power to destroy a planet is insignificant.

*((DO + CA) / (DO + CA + IN + BR + TA + BA); basically "percentage of times you threw downfield that something good happened." Marginal (MA) passes don't count either way, and pressures (PRs) are charged to the OL, not the QB.)

He did get some help.

Yes, he did. Receiverchart:

(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)

Notes: look at the spread here. Seven different receivers got four or more looks, with Mathews topping out at nine. Receivers dug out three catches filed as circus (Mathews's 40 yarder, the first Brown wheel route, and Odoms's critical third down conversion on the final drive) and dropped no balls filed as routine. You couldn't ask for anything more.

Brown is the clearly preferred option as a pass receiver out of the backfield. His speed and hands make him dangerous; that first wheel would probably have been a touchdown if it was thrown accurately. I bet Michigan uses him frequently against teams that are playing a lot of man.

Stonum's solid game may be the most important development going forward. Notre Dame was very aggressive on the corners because they didn't respect Michigan's ability to get deep and Stonum's the only guy on the roster who can put the fear of God into those guys, as he amply demonstrated on his kickoff return. That showed why he was such a highly-touted recruit. An earlier fly route showed why he's been stuck on the bench: he ran a great route that gave him three or four yards to the sideline, and Forcier used that room to throw a great pass where only he could get to it…and he turned inside. That went from a long completion to a ball glancing off his fingertips. So he's got work to do. But his career is officially off life support.

Protection is less cheery but mentally file this under "Tenuta":

PROTECTION METRIC: 35/50, Moosman –1, Huyge –6, Team –8.

That is not a good metric but that big "team" number indicates that a lot of that was just TAH-NOO-TAH sending guys from everywhere and Michigan either not making the right pickup or not having the ability to make the right pickup because there are just more dudes than blockers. Huyge, on the other hand, struggled, especially when Moosman went out and he slid inside to guard; he got driven back on multiple plays on the final drive and was a main reason it was so ridiculous and scrambly.

Any other reasons this offense has taken a quantum leap forward?

Yes: the coaches.

Take a look at the Michigan drive that ended in Darius Fleming's jock on the field and Matt Millen making up words via which to homoerotically praise Forcier. As described in Picture Pages, Michigan gashed Notre Dame twice early in the second half with a zone read dive that acts as a counterpunch to the scrape exchange. The third time M runs it the backside DE treats it like a power running play much like you see Michigan State run and runs up to cut Koger, which spills the play outside and results in zero yards.

Okay. They've caught on. Michigan immediately discontinues the dive stuff and finishes out the drive with a variety of other plays. When Michigan gets the ball back they run one inside zone out of an ace formation (odd) and then go to this:

1. PA TE flat on which Koger fakes the dive block and then heads out for a big gain.
2. Called QB keeper on the dive play that would be eight or ten yards if Forcier would just run straight upfield instead of trying to beat the corner.
3. Zone read stretch variant where Koger pulls but is actually acting as a stretch lead blocker. This gains six despite a Schilling whiff and would probably have been more if it was Minor running through a thicket of desperate hands instead of Brown.
4. The dive play itself, which loses a yard when Tenuta blitzes right into it.
5. Return to the PA TE flat, which ends up sucking every ND defender to Brown and Koger and leaves Forcier in the clear with one Darius Fleming.

That is awesome. That sequence is, in a nutshell, the difference between this year's offense and last year's offense. Last year, Michigan would rip off the two long runs off the dive and then the opponent would adjust, as Notre Dame did, and then Michigan would just be out of ideas because their quarterback was incapable of running and passing. This year, Forcier gives them the ability to set you up and then run one, two, three counters to their play (which was originally a counter!), all of which worked and would have gone for big yardage if Forcier had realized he was not in high school any more. And then they go back to the original, which Tenuta gets lucky on, and then they go back to a counter, which Tenuta does not get lucky on, and Michigan has a touchdown drive built almost entirely by the ingenuity of Rodriguez and Magee and the ability of Tate Forcier to MAKE PLAYS.

Michigan and their freshman quarterback and their unthreatening WRs and their almost total lack of NFL talent kept pace with a team running out a third-year starting quarterback, two future NFL receivers, and a veteran, talented offensive line. And the above is how. That is a decided schematic advantage.

Contrast this with the old Carr/Debord style: run the same play over and over and over again, out-executing them for little bits of yardage and setting up the opponent for one big killshot. Get predictable, and then break tendencies. Rodriguez only tolerates predictability insofar as he has to, and operates his offense as a coherent suite of plays that you have to guess right on lest you get gashed. This is not "rock rock rock," it's "rock, scissors, rock, rock, paper, scissors, candle, rock, wait what candle(?) oops you scored a touchdown." WVU's offensive standing was not a coincidence, and neither was Michigan's.

No offense to any of the departed, of course.

Why didn't the slot receivers get any play? Where were the bubbles?

This is why:

Notre Dame had a guy directly over the slot the whole game, which took it away. As we saw above, that opened up other things. Playing defense against this thing is like plugging a hole in a dike with your finger.

Heroes?

Forcier, and let's hand out some awards for the receivers, who pulled in three circus catches and dropped no 3s. They may not be explosive but they were utterly reliable. Top marks to Stonum for his kickoff return. Also, Sean McDonough really did this ridiculous game justice. Millen was pretty good, too.

Goats?

I've got Huyge down for a –6 in pass pro, which is bad. The team picked up another –8, too. I love it when Forcier runs around but I'd like it if it took a little longer for that to be the best alternative.

What does it mean for Eastern Michigan, and beyond?

Forcier's going to Favre a game away at some point, I think, when he runs around too long and fumbles or chucks an INT he shouldn't have even thought about throwing, but this offense will be in a position to Favre games away. It is the real deal, man, capable of running or throwing on just about anyone short of Ohio State, whose defensive line is probably going to devour the OL, and maybe Penn State. It's got a suite of plays that work together, any of which can bust long, and the receivers are really helping out with their hands.

This is no fluke. This is the Leap.

Cover.

It's tiny and it's in the corner but it's something. (Via MVictors.)

ISO. I'm looking for an iPhone programmer for a startup project. Email me if you're interested.

WHOAH. Yes Forcier woo but hold on just a dang minute here:

It's only two games, but you would not be completely unreasonable to start worrying about Michigan as Penn State's main competition in the conference.

That's Black Shoe Diaries, and yes it would be completely unreasonable. A five three-point loss to USC does not destroy Ohio State's status as a team that doesn't run out walk-ons on defense. Let's keep the increased expectations at the Alamo/Outback level, plz, lest Michigan failing to hit the BCS this year is cause for another round of "I'm not saying Michigan should fire Rich Rodriguez, but did you know he uses babies as fuel for his Hummer?" stories. This team still has huge problems on defense and the offense is currently held together by Forcier's insane magic, something that's probably going to lose Michigan a game or two when the freshman in Forcier bites back.

Also from that post halol:

If there's one thing Penn State and Michigan fans can get together on, it's Terrelle Pryor schadenfreude.

Quick kickin'. Tate Forcier's quick kick ended up downed at the four and it sounds like Michigan will be inclined to use it in similar situations in the future:

Forcier, Michigan's true freshman quarterback, doubled as a punter (and defensive back) for his high school team in California, and Wolverines coach Rich Rodriguez said Forcier worked occasionally on the skill during fall camp.

"He's very good at it," Rodriguez said.

Later in that article Rodriguez points out he won't call that on third down, which uh thanks for that clarification. Shades of Brian Griese and a much better alternative than Carr's well-loved fake-FG punt that hardly worked and often saw teams put a returner back anyway. Michigan hurrying to the line and threatening to go for it means no one can get back lest a fake happen.

Rising. I always like it when the assessments I make in UFR are echoed by other people, as it makes me think I'm not totally bats in said assessments. So here's a rising guy for the NFL draft after two games:

Donovan Warren/CB/Michigan: Warren, the Wolverines well-sized cornerback, seems to have his game back on track after a disappointing sophomore campaign. He broke up three passes during the victory over Notre Dame and was forceful helping to stop the run. The junior's game comes with a great amount of upside potential and should Warren consistently play at a high level, he will eventually move into the draft's initial 45 selections.

That would be just about perfect: an excellent season, a mid-second round rating, and a reason to come back to school.

What in the hell? Deadspin's gone downhill ever since Leitch (mostly) left but I didn't know they'd turned into an LSU message board:

Have you ever been to Auburn? No? Well, I have, and IT SUCKS! Which is why, in order to "attract" recruits, the program has to dispatch its illiterate boosters to harass the nation's top prep talent into signing with them.

I have been to Auburn, and I can say confidently that it sucks far less than "The Cajun Boy" and his post. Don't they pay people to write there? I don't understand.

Point of clarification. The Only Colors took some exception to gentle—you might say brotherly—ribbing at the bottom of Monday's game column:

1. To me, this [the press box announcer stating that the MSU-CMU score was an exception to "no cheering in the press box"] is a hell of a lot less defensible than MSU fans cheering on the HORROR.  (That video, of course, being one which Michigan fans have alternately whined about and made fun of for two years now.)  Fans aren't supposed to maintain any pretense of objectivity …

First, this isn't about defensible or not. What we are talking about here is talking, and the worst of it rises to "ha you lost." This blog has always been wildly in favor of press conference trash-talking from anyone from the pope on down. The whole "moment of silence/little brother/Mike Hart is short/pride comes before the fall" sequence was awesome. It raised the stakes in the rivalry to the point that OSU fans entering a tailspin of self-doubt, regret, and pining for Tate Forcier was only my third favorite thing that happened over the weekend. In no way do I disapprove of Dantonio taunting Mike Hart. In that spirit, press box announcer trash-talk adds fuel to the fire. Fuel is good until Ned gets involved.

Second, I don't know what he's referring to about the fans. I've never seen Michigan fans suggest State fans shouldn't enjoy The Horror—maybe the occasional dig at brahs wearing App St gear around, which is sad. But "pride comes before the fall" and "should we have a moment of silence?" are direct quotes from the head man and definitely deserve comeuppance mocking.

2. For our purposes, I'll assume that Freep writers weren't among those cheering.  Still, how exactly does this square with the Michigan-fan meme/persecution complex that the lolmsm has effectively become an arm of the MSU athletic department?

I think that's restricted to the Free Press, FWIW. Also, the Michigan press box is full of your Ebling and (lol) Spartanmag equivalents too; every press box is divided between aloof observers and homers.

In summation: I can't complain about Michigan fans playing the comeuppins' card, especially when my team choked as badly as they did on Saturday.  But, playing that card also forfeits the high ground they've staked out for themselves, as Dex from WLA essentially admitted.  Welcome to the muck.

What high ground? We mock you for being dunderheaded nitwits who can't get into the country club, you accuse us of never getting laid. It's the circle of life. It's a circle.

Falcon punch? Jonas Mouton got a little pop on one of ND's offensive linemen on Saturday:

This is really weird. It looks like a punch, but on the complete tape Mouton just jogs away after it and in the second or two before the camera angle cuts the ND OL appears to get up like nothing happened. Contrast that to the reaction when Greg Mathews kicked an Oregon player. Slightly different. If there'd been any problems afterwards I'd think you'd suspend the guy—though Mathews didn't get a game for a far more blatant case of poor sportsmanship, nor did that Wisconsin punt scrub who twisted Breaston's knee—but no one seems to have a problem with it except Charlie Weis. I might sit Mouton down anyway. That's not likely if Robert Reynolds got all of a game for choking out Jim Sorgi.

Etc.: Old timers will remember unofficial MGoBlog editorial cartoonist Joel A Morgan; he's taken his stuff to Mustaches with Michigan. MfM wasn't just a one-off, by the way. They're around for the long haul. Michigan Monday is always more entertaining when we're not awful. LSUFreek tackles last weekend's game.