tate forcier

10/10/2009 – Michigan 28, Iowa 30 – 4-2, 1-2 Big Ten

screenshot via MVictors; Denard Robinson as sad panda from the News via Genuinely Sarcastic and Mike Desimone.

This is probably a time to dispense with the fooferah and get right to the heart of the matter. From our vantage point from the endzone of Kinnick Stadium our instant assumption when Denard Robinson came in was that Forcier had gotten hurt on one of two earlier plays. We couldn't see a whole lot, but we saw a lot of Michigan's third quarter—unfortunately because they spent it next to the wrong endzone. Forcier banged his hand on someone's helmet, then later took a wicked shot from some defensive lineman or another moments after launching another incompletion.

When Robinson came out with around six minutes left, we had a debate about the idea, coming down on the side of "not good." Though Robinson was surprisingly effective driving Michigan for a score-tightening touchdown, the run-based nature of the drive stripped more than three minutes off the clock and saw Michigan attempt an onside kick with about 3:20 left and one timeout. This, too, was seen as a sign that Forcier was hurt: surely if you're going to cast your lot with Denard Robinson on a drive to win you need the ability to run the ball quite a bit. Kicking deep with only Robinson available is tantamount to waving the white flag.

So all that fit together and when Robinson came out after Michigan's defense thwarted Iowa on their attempt to strangle the game, it made sense. Forcier was unavailable, and this was the best Michigan could do. And, hell, it was working all right until Robinson eschewed what looked like a wide open Martavious Odoms in favor of Michigan's third or fourth jump ball into safety coverage. This one did not clatter to the turf harmlessly. As we say in UFR, EOG.

So… yeah. The news that Forcier had to be bodily escorted off the field before Michigan's last drive was less than thrilling. I'm sure this will be breaking no new ground after a couple days of checking in on the blog to see just which items raging about the decision needed to be excised, but for the record:

WHAT

THE

HELL

?

There are a billion comments across the internet calling the decision "indefensible," many of them drawing direct parallels to the last time a Michigan team visited Iowa. John Beilein sat Manny Harris down for overtime, Michigan lost when Iowa hit an array of circus shots and Manny's replacement, David Merritt, continued being a walk-on instead of Manny Harris, and a very large number of people were peeved, livid, or somewhere in between. This space in the aftermath of that decision:

If he thought Michigan had a better chance to win with David Merritt on the floor, he's nuts. More likely he had about reached his limit and sat him in what appears to be a fit of pique. I get that: Harris at the moment is a basketball doppelganger of Braylon Edwards in his afro phase, when he was benched because he and Carr weren't "on the same page" despite his clear superiority to Michigan's other receiving options. Edwards wised up and blew up. Harris? We'll see.

I would have preferred the teachable moment had not come in overtime of a crucial road game, though. You know.

The two incidents are creepily similar, and my opinion about Saturday is about identical to my opinion about the Manny benching: there were a ton of good reasons to make the move that don't come close to outweighing the enormous one that argued against it. If Michigan had gotten that onside kick and Robinson had three minutes to work with, okay. With 1:40 on the clock, no timeouts, and sixty yards to go, no.

------------------------

So where does that leave us? Michigan's just experienced a two point loss on the road against a top-15 team during which they were –4 in turnover margin. They got outgained again. Forcier was pretty terrible. Robinson displayed both his talent and his limitations. Rodriguez made a poor decision in the heat of the moment, bursting this site's obvious hope that he was Jesus Ferguson. They're 4-2 in the league with three games they should win left, which would leave them at 7-5 if they don't pick off one of Penn State, Wisconsin, or Ohio State. A walk-on has permanently ascended to the starting lineup.

Add that all together and you get… I don't know. A jumbled mess that's clearly not as soul-destroying as last year's merry band of incompetence but not in any respect good. Michigan has been significantly outgained in each of four games against teams outside of the MAC, and mitigating factors like special teams and turnovers can no longer patch those gaps up. After all that at the start of the season, Michigan's settled about where everyone expected they'd be: still digging out from nuclear winter, looking towards the future with hope and the present with tolerance, at best.

The emotions I had coming out of Kinnick were as much of a mess as the team is. Michigan shot itself in a thousand different ways, busting coverages on two tight end touchdowns and a third and twenty-five that was more damaging than any of the five (five!) turnovers they gacked up with little assistance from Iowa. It was really frustrating to walk away feeling that Michigan should have won but for their own errors—errors that at this point are obviously a fundamental part of what the team is—but the memory of last year hovered, suggesting that the mere idea that errors were only a part of the whole this time around represented progress. Clearly, there is a long way yet to go.

Bullets

• I know I make fun of people in the comments who believe I have some sort of crazy power over the fortunes of Michigan football that I only use for evil, but dammit Greg Mathews, not only did you drop a punt, give Iowa the ball at the Michigan 16, and eventually lead to that short-field Tony Moeaki touchdown, you did it mere hours after I suggested that I should stop typing HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL as the key matchup in the special teams section. It's hard not to feel personally responsible even though that's completely insane.
• Have seen a number of complaints about the timeout with 27 seconds left before halftime. I wanted Rodriguez to call it at the time; after some consideration I think that was probably not a good idea either. Even if Michigan gets a stop on that third and ten they'd have the ball somewhere on their side of the field with 12 seconds on the clock or whatever. In general I like the bent of Rodriguez's decisions; that one was wrong.
• Another TO complaint: Michigan shouldn't have taken one on third and ten from the one and a half. Just take the penalty there and Michigan's got another 40 seconds to work with on their final drive. I understand it's hard to break the natural inclination to take a timeout when the playclock gets way low, though. That's a corner case that doesn't come up much.
• I don't know exactly whose fault the two busted coverages were but if, as rumored, it was Mike Williams I don't know what you do about it. Woolfolk was physically capable at cornerback and Michigan finally went with the press man they've been talking about since Greg Robinson got hired. Williams definitely let an Iowa receiver behind him on third and twenty-fing-five, and if Moeaki was his guy on either of his touchdowns he's directly responsible for all three Iowa touchdowns. Maybe Iowa would have done something with the last drive, but the first Moeaki TD was on third and twelve; a stop there is a FG attempt. A stop on the third and twenty-five is a punt.
• Michigan did break out some new stuff, grinding Brandon Minor into the line from the I on a successful, Bo-pleasing late touchdown drive and debuting a quick pitch to the sideline that never looked like it was going anywhere but also never failed to gain four to six yards. The former is something Michigan could have tried against State; the latter was probably hampered by Forcier's shoulder issues.
• It seemed like after the first interception from Forcier that he refused to throw to receivers who were open. On a couple third downs there were slants available (I think) that Forcier did not take, instead running around as is his wont. I was pretty frustrated by him, and imagine that Rodriguez was ready to strangle the kid.
• Graham shouldn't be rushing the punter on a punt safe, not that it mattered.

Trip Report Section

City. I can tell you about a lovely Econolodge in Davenport, Iowa, but despite driving out Friday and spending about all of Saturday in Iowa City, I can't tell you much about the city itself. My momentary first impression was that this was a foofy college down as I strolled by some organic eatery down one of those cobbled pedestrian streets you see wherever people are trying to create an area for foot traffic. Then we went in a bar that had six things on the menu, asked if you wanted ranch with your waffle fries, and attempted to purvey something called a "walking taco," which the waitress explained was "um, it's like Doritos in a bag with some meat and cheese and onions and taco stuff thrown in." The stalls in the bathroom didn't have doors on them.

So I was a little confused. I was referring to this experience at the Black Heart Gold Pants tailgate, and I was talking about this place we were, and when asked where, exactly, we were I rakishly pulled out my zinger: "the place with no doors on the stalls." The response was "which one? There are lots of those." So… yeah. Iowa City leans towards the no doors on the stalls. I guess. I saw the inside of a bar, a parking lot, and Kinnick. I am not a one-man Yelp here.

Fans. Excellent. There was the usual dose of meathead yellin' at the guys in the wrong colors—sort of, anyway, the difference between maize and blue and black and gold is not drastic—that you get whenever you go anywhere other than South Bend. Other than that everyone was perfectly nice. At no point did I feel like someone was going to hit me, which is more than I can say for the last few trips to Columbus or East Lansing.

I will note that the male student body of Iowa appears to be 80% meathead.

Kinnick experience, in total. Very classy. All brick exterior, looks like I'd like to see Michigan Stadium end up looking like once they figure out what they're going to do in the endzones:

Anthony Ciatti

And the interior:

Anthony Ciatti

The stadium itself was a bit smaller than I'd expected. Our seats were strange: section "NB," which ended up standing for "North Bleachers" and was not listed on the map or at all familiar to the first two people we tried to talk to about just where the hell we were supposed to sit. An usher had clue, though, and directed us to five rows of makeshift metal bleachers that were literally on the field in the endzone. We stood the whole game, which was fine because from appearances so did the rest of the place.

Despite that, it didn't seem particularly noisy. It got loud on important third downs but I thought it was about on part with Michigan Stadium. FWIW. I am apparently terrible at discerning variable noise levels, given my reaction to this year's addition of luxury boxes.

There's a full gallery by Anthony here.

PIPE IT IN BABY. The Iowa marching band might as well not exist. I don't know if this was a homecoming thing, but they didn't even march pregame—the alumni band did—and had a seriously abbreviated halftime show so that a Hawkeye inductee to the CFHOF could get his due. During the game they hardly played, and when they did play they mostly played marching band versions of songs that had already been piped in over the PA.

Oh, also:

This disaster was played incessantly over the PA, and we, not being 14-year-old-girls, didn't know what it was. Friend of Blog joked that it was probably a Jonas Brothers song, and we laughed, and then we thought to ourselves IS that a Jonas Brothers song? It turns out no, but it's by the Black Eyed Peas, which is 95% as emasculating. Hell, this imeem playlist by one Shelby Veppert, who—no foolies—is a 19-year old from Columbus who lists Nickelback(!!!) as one of her favorite bands, has the song sandwiched between two Jonas Brothers songs. If Michigan Stadium ever has anything that can be considered a sort of theme song I'm going to buy out Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork, and if it's ever something as terrifyingly fey as that thing, I'll storm the castle myself.

Site note: Michigan's homecoming activities murder Iowa's, chop them up, and put them in a bag. Iowa basically has the alumni band play the fight song and march off the field, then has a tedious announcement of various alumni who helped out and the members of the homecoming court*. And that's it. Michigan has a goofy prohibition-era cheer, awesome flipping 80-year-old alumni cheerleaders, a terrific combined-band halftime show, and that one crazy old drum-major who rips it up every year. I love homecoming at Michigan Stadium, and was excited to get the Iowa version of it. I didn't get it.

*(The homecoming king was a bioengineering (or something along those lines) major named Rohit… Naha… Romin… fromblobololgbogl. The telltale pause from the very Iowan public address announcer after the poorly-pronounced "Rohit" promised three seconds of pure unadulterated awesome, and that promise was delivered upon.)

Personnel notes: I don't think I saw Webb or Savoy all game. The offensive line was the same as the Indiana game but at some point in the second half Huyge got pulled for Ferrara, at least briefly.

Dammit.

Yeah. Hamburgers.

Charts?

Yeah. Charts.

(Hennechart legend; MA is "marginal", screen results are in parens.)

TATE FORCIER

DENARD ROBINSON

Goddamn. You wouldn't know it because of all the pressure and the drops killing his stats, but Forcier had a spectacular day. His downfield success rate* was 71%, which is up there with Chad Henne's best game. Chad Henne's best games didn't come with game-killing overtime interceptions, sure. He made three and a half terrible decisions throwing the ball (with the half being the bomb to Koger) and some additional ones in the ground game.

But does anyone remember the "Sheridan Might Start!" meme? Will anyone own up to actually advancing that point of view? No? No.

*((DO + CA) / All Throws Not Marked MA or PR)

There are two man reasons Forcier's numbers didn't live up to the chart above. Reason the first:

That is three flat drops (Brown's "drop" was not looking for the hot route) and three catchable balls that were not brought in. Add the drops and maybe one or two of the tougher catches and Forcier is now at 22/32 for 260-280 yards and his performance looks almost identical to the Notre Dame game where he unleashed his inner Superman.

Reason the second:

PROTECTION METRIC: 37/57, Team –5, Dorrestein –4, Ortmann –4, Ferrara –3, Huyge –2, Minor –2, Moosman –1.

That is terrible, and large parts of it can be blamed on the absence of one David Molk. People who would not have been playing otherwise picked up –7 and one bad Moosman snap was given –1: more than half of the 15 negative points assigned to specific players on the line are attributable in ways direct or indirect to Molk's foot. And that's not even considering his keenly-felt absence from the run game.

Not going out on a limb: if Molk is healthy Michigan wins. When he got injured and Rodriguez called him Michigan's best player on offense he wasn't kidding. He might not be right, but he was serious.

So the right side of the line just can't block?

It appears so. Michigan again went with Huyge and Dorrestein on the right side and got so discontent with this arrangement that Huyge got pulled for Ferrara, who immediately gave up a crushing sack. GS's run chart is up early enough to directly reference it this week, so: both Huyge and Dorrestein ended up –2, with Ferrara picking up a –1. It's not like the rest of the team covered themselves in glory—your winner on the OL is +1 Ortmann—but there were major problems on the right side of the line in both pass protection and against the run.

All this invites one question: where is supposed new mega-star Patrick Omamaeh? Omameh was the projected starter at right tackle in the spring and now can't find the field despite serious issues over yonder. He remains a redshirt freshman and shouldn't be written off but if he was going to be an uber-star he'd find his way onto the field before a journeyman like Dorrestein. As per usual, the preseason hype machine run by mysterious insiders is of questionable validity.

Is that what happened to the ground game?

Partially. It was odd. On the first play of the game Michigan State brought out this crazy slant that came around the stretch blocks from the other side and crushed Michigan's first offensive play.

I've seen a couple other teams try this—the team foremost in my mind was Penn State last year—get gashed doing it, and then quit. Wisconsin and Penn State used to do this against the DeBord stretch all the time and since Michigan had very little in the way of counters, it worked very well. But IIRC this was about the only time State brought that out.

So it didn't seem that schematic. What I saw happen: Michigan got a reduced number of opportunities because of the game situation and on those limited opportunities there was a ton of terrible execution. Forcier kept the ball when he should have handed it off, most painfully on Michigan's overtime drive where a veer play absolutely had State for a ton of yards and maybe a touchdown but Forcier kept it and was forced to follow Minor into the hole for only four. Twice Brown burst into the open field with a lead blocker and naught but one player between him and the endzone and both times Brown and the lead blocker failed to beat that one guy. Martavious Odoms took a reverse and had absolutely cavernous space to cut up into but did not realize it until far too late and slipped making his cut. On several plays State had left themselves open for a big cutback run behind the center but the tailbacks did not take it. And, yes, the right side of the line repeatedly failed to crease State's DL or chop the backside DT when plays went away from it. State did a good job—on both of those potential big gainers the State player in question made a huge, touchdown saving tackle—but Michigan left a ton of yards on the field. Chalk that up to youth, first road game, rain, injury, whatever.

Why can't we throw the bubble? Everyone else can.

This is why:

Opposing safeties are zooming down into the box to handle it as soon as they see the fake there. Michigan needs to counter this, and quickly, but not with the outside receiver, which is a play that works but doesn't put the fear of God into opponents. Michigan broke out the counter screen to this on the 92-yard drive to tie the game:

And that's something that if it catches the right defense and the right safety/LB freakout will bust for a touchdown. Look for it more.

Heroes?

Tate. Tate Tate Tate. Also Stonum.

Goats?

The right side of the line. Also Stonum for fumbling. And Greg Mathews has a remarkable knack for getting Forcier to overthrow him or target him in situations where he absolutely should not be targeted.

What does it mean for Iowa and beyond?

Tate is still working on becoming a pocket passer but he put in another Notre Dame-level performance last weekend and every game we get like that is further evidence that he just plays at that level and will do so in the future. Yes, he remains a freshman too prone to scramble out of the pocket and too ready to chuck it into a mess of opponents. There is almost nothing else to criticize.

The run game had a horrible, largely self-inflicted day in a limited sample size. Adjustments should be lowered a bit, especially for the Iowa game, but going forward Michigan should do much better than they did against State. Getting Molk back is key.

Michigan got some clarity on the wide receiver positions: Savoy was not targeted and Grady took a seat after his initial drop. Odoms, Mathews, Stonum, and Hemingway appear to be the main guys there, with Stonum the man who gad the most looks (6). Could he be emerging into the deep threat he was reputed to be? Let's hope so.

• Tate was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday, but did everything on Wednesday. He came out of the locker room in a green jersey, but was in the normal practice jersey by the time the team actually started drilling.
• Minor has been having his healthiest week of practice since training camp. He went through all of the practice yesterday - and Tuesday is the most physical day. Minor has been limited in games because of those injuries. He's only been able to play because he already knew a lot of the offense.
• David Molk has worked with the trainers, but he's still not ready to play. He might not practice even next week. Without him, the line is trying to develop a sense of continuity. In Moosman's 3rd consecutive game at center, there should be some improvement.
• The second corner position is still open. It shouldn't be resolved for another several weeks. Kovacs has played well enough to inspire confidence in the coaches. Mike Williams is healthy now, so he should get some playing time.
• Team needs to work on execution in passing game, in addition to running game. Rodriguez doesn't care if the team scores on the ground or through the air, as long as they score.
• Iowa has an active defensive front, they'll be difficult to beat. They jump the snap well, and play with good upper-body technique. The OL just needs to have good fundamentals up front and get on blocks.
• The athletic department hasn't discussed night games. ESPN really wants them to have one, but there are logistical issues that make it more difficult than it seems. For the coaches, they have meetings and a walkthrough, and sit around and watch a couple of the early games. There isn't as much of a rush to finish a walkthrough the day before. West Virginia had a good night game record, and the players there took pride in that. The fans have all day to prepare (read: drink) for night games, which has an effect on the atmosphere.In Morgantown, that sometimes meant burning couches afterwards.
• The pink locker room isn't a concern for the coaches. It's not that big of a deal to the team. Rodriguez has no plans to paper over the pink walls, like Bo once did.
• Rodriguez is friendly with Soup Campbell, the former WR coach for Michigan and current WR coach for Iowa. They haven't talked since the season started.
• Mike Martin is one of the team's most consistent performers. Rodriguez would like to be able to have more guys play, and get the defensive line more rest.
• GERG may have an advantage against Iowa, because he's coached against them before, when he was at Syracuse. Of course, that means Iowa has seen his defensive schemes before, as well.
• Rodriguez got a chance to watch the Tigers last night. He's met with Jim Leyland, and Jared Van Slyke's dad is a coach for the Tigers. "They'll be back."

10/3/2009 – Michigan 20, Michigan State 26 (OT)  - 4-1, 1-1 Big Ten

Tate Forcier had gotten away with three or four balls just like the one he chucked in the direction of a very, very covered Martavious Odoms on Michigan's final offensive play. In the first half, Koger bailed him out on a prayer of a deep ball that became Michigan's initial first down and led to a field goal. And Forcier had caused heart attacks twice on Michigan final drive. On the first play he "found" Hemingway conveniently located a foot behind a Spartan safety for a nine yard gain. On the play before the epic coverage bust that got Roy Roundtree open for the tying touchdown, he tossed a flapping duck into a cast of thousands. In retrospect—but only in retrospect—it was obvious that Michigan would die by the sword that brung them.

A third consecutive Forcier miracle would have been too much too compute. And this one would have offended the football gods for more reasons than "third consecutive game-ending drive to win or tie by freshman quarterback." In Michigan's comebacks against Notre Dame and Indiana you could point to factors hidden from the generic yardage statistics most people use to measure a team's worth: special teams and red-zone defense converted Michigan's yardage deficits into wins. This was not so much the case on Saturday.

Looking at the box score reveals an afternoon of vast offensive ineptitude. The only reason Michigan fans faced the prospect of a ninety-one-yard march in a driving rainstorm with three minutes and no timeouts with anything other that resignation is a testament to how quickly Forcier has grabbed hold of hearts and minds in Ann Arbor. I mean, look at this thing (Michigan is the first, ugly column):

  TOTAL NET YARDS  	        251  	417 
    Total Plays 	        60 	78 
    Average Gain Per Play 	4.2 	5.3 
  NET YARDS RUSHING 	        28 	197 
    Rushes 	                28 	49 
    Average Per Rush 	        1.0 	4.0 
  NET YARDS PASSING 	        223 	220 
    Completions-Attempts 	17-32 	20-29 
    Yards Per Pass Play 	7.0 	7.6 
    Times Sacked 	        3 	2 
    Yards Lost to Sacks 	33 	12 
    Had Intercepted 	        1 	2

Before Forcier's last-drive wizardry, Michigan had one excellent catch and run from Stonum, the aforementioned prayer to Koger, and 47 other yards total. (Michigan picked up 12 in overtime.) There was no indication anywhere that Michigan should be in the game, and they wouldn't have been but for the brilliant swashbuckling we've come to expect in five short games with Tate Forcier. Michigan's sword is a scimitar held  between the teeth as it swings on an unexplained rope into a ballroom. Sometimes they biff the landing and end up with a faceful of scimitar and cheeks in need of serious stitches.

This is the kind of thing that sees the inbox fill up with questions about whether Michigan should have gone for two. More on that later (quick answer: yes but not when you think). The important bit for this section is: that's Boise State thinking, and this was a game in which it was appropriate. Michigan richly deserved a loss to the point where fans were proposing taking a less than 50-50 shot at winning there and then, hoping to get one play right to steal a win and get out of town.

Michigan got outplayed. They showed how far they've got to go before they are back to being block-M Michigan, and yes it sucks that it happened at all and a bit worse that it happened against the yappiest team in No Accomplishments Land. It was going to happen at some point, and will probably happen again. The yardage margins are compelling at this point: Michigan's gotten by on smoke and swashbuckling so far, a team born to play a recurring role in Life on the Margins as long as they continue digging out from the talent and preparation crater that led to 3-9 and have a guy at quarterback that refuses to go down easy.

BULLETS

• Pregame predictions here mostly bore fruit: Michigan State had a surprisingly tough day on the ground and an obviously easy one in the air when Michigan wasn't getting lots amounts of pressure (all three MSU turnovers were a direct result of that). Michigan's passing game was also good when people weren't dropping balls. But there were two huge exceptions: I didn't mention "oh by the way Kirk Cousins will run for 10 YPC"—in fact, I dissed his ability to make thing happen when he moved out of the pocket—and I didn't see State crushing Michigan's ground game for the second straight year. The first one can be explained by flukes and poor linebackers… the second… uh? That's one of the things you just don't know about until you go over the tape in minute detail, but I don't get it.
• One possible explanation: Steve Sharik thinks Dantonio "gets the rivalry" to the point of manic obsession: "After watching MSU's D for their first 4 games and then today, it seems obvious that they spent almost all off-season and much of fall camp working on defending Michigan.  I don't know how else to explain how a so-so run defense, horrendous secondary and meh pass rush turned into the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens that suddenly." Michigan might be wise to have a package of stuff designed to combat this in the future; it was equally obvious last year that disproportionate amounts of effort had gone into preparing for Michigan. Congratulations, Spartans: you're 2-3.
• It'll be interesting to see what happens against Iowa. Michigan gashes them, or even gets a decent day, and it's clear that State's mania is at another level and that Michigan's run game is okay for the rest of the year. Michigan gets shut down and it looks like Molk's injury is more devastating than anyone projected, the offensive line was getting by against teams short of talent, and things will rest more heavily on Forcier.
• Defense was very strange. Outside of what might be the longest drive in the history of both programs (in terms of total yardage covered) it held Michigan State to 10 points in regulation and something like 250 yards. But, right: ceded 130 yard touchdown drive on which they had a 2nd and 25 and other instances of huge long yardage situations. That touchdown drive also made for a crazy first half in which Michigan got three drives. Still, the defensive line crushed State's conventional running game. State running backs averaged well under three yards a carry. That seems like progress even against a run game as weak as State's.
• Not progress: linebackers. Jonas Mouton was almost wholly responsible for letting Kirk Cousins (who is KIRK COUSINS) outside of him for a 41(!) yard gain, and Ezeh and Mouton were the guys who let Cousins get from the eight to the one on third and goal, allowing State to punch it in on fourth down. We have to live with this all year.
• Rodriguez said he didn't call for a fake on the ill-fated fake, and I assumed at the time that Zoltan was given the rollout punt/go for it option he picked up a couple first downs with last year. It was really, really not there, though, and he should have immediately punted it.
• I hated the run-up to that. Would rather see Brandon Minor on some sort of power set than Forcier doing that off tackle thing, and it was fourth and an inch, and I would probably go for it there. QB sneak it, man.
• Robinson's madden inability to adjust to the bubble screens was, uh, maddening. I'm at a loss to see how Michigan can't even throw it anymore but Michigan State can just line up in a twins set and have it open time after time. What happened to the defense we saw against Minnesota last year when Morgan Trent actually arrived before the ball on one?

GOING FOR TWO

Special mini-mailbag on this piece of PhD level game theory coaching moves:

Hi Brian,

 

Obviously we shouldn't have dropped back 12 yards to gain six inches or punted it away on successive 4ths and 1s, but the Romer go-for-it on fourth down angle has been pretty well covered. So my game theory comment is this: when you are down 14 and score a TD, you should go for two! 44% of 2pt conversions in last year's Big Ten were successful, so...

 

Possible outcomes:

44%: Make 2pt conv (44%), you win

25%: Miss 2pt conv (56%), then make 2 pt conv (44%), overtime

31%: Miss 2pt conv twice, you lose

 

So you can see you come out ahead, and you come out ahead with any conversion rate of at least 37%. (Not to mention the intangibles of tiring the defense for another snap or two, plus the fact that going for the throat would have to fire up the team.)

 

Might have made the difference Saturday. Thoughts?

 

Daniel Novinson

This didn't occur to me at the time, but: yes, Michigan should have gone for two after the Stonum touchdown. The scenario laid out above has occurred to a number other folk. They have proceeded to go into unnecessarily vast detail about it in various quasi-academic publications dedicated to the proposition that no decision in football should go unquestioned. Daniel above has it in its simplest form: when you're down two touchdowns late and you get one of them you should go for two and take a shot at winning in regulation early when you have another touchdown to make up for potential failures.

Should Michigan have gone for two on their final drive after having kicked on the Stonum TD? I don't think so. The rain was pounding at that point and Forcier was as gassed as I've ever seen a Michigan quarterback. The chances of success there are poorer than usual, I think. I mean, this happened two plays before:

I'm not super confident in the offense getting one play right at this juncture. 

Personnel bits: Indiana basically did the same thing as Eastern presnap. Post-snap stuff gets extensive discussion below.

BONUS: I'm trying to integrate previous explanatory posts into the UFRs in an effort to reduce confusion.

How ya like me now?

Bolded, questioning alter-ego, you mean all this time you've been Martavious Odoms?

Maybe, maybe not.

Well, to answer your question, Shmarvious Modoms, I like you quite a bit, even when you're not touching the ball. The hidden secret of Brown's sixty-one yard screen is you pwning a guy way bigger than you:

There were more examples of downfield blocking turning small plays into first downs throughout the game. And, of course, there was the game-winning touchdown set up by the other you, Kelvin Grady.

What?

Michigan ran a couple bubble screens that got blasted by Indiana safety Nick Polk, who had a great all-around day until a certain play. Here's one of them. Watch the safety come charging up.

This indicates a couple things: the nickel guy is frequently being deployed as the contain, which seemingly closes down a lot of things but opens up the bubble. Except that Polk is getting downhill like a mother and tackling with authority. But you do know that Indiana's scheme in reasonable down and distance situations features a lot of man-to-man coverage with a safety on a slot. (Here's another example.) This comes in handy later:

Dude.

Teams have schemed to take away the bubble screen this year but that opens up other stuff. Finger in a dike.

Also, poor Polk is the guy Minor trucked on the final real snap of the game.

I am going into withdrawal. Charts?

Charts.

(Hennechart again; MA is "marginal", screen results are in parens.)

TATE FORCIER

DENARD ROBINSON

Robinson is basically a wildcat quarterback who throws a little bit.

As for Forcier: his accuracy remains extremely good but there are a hefty number of BRs on that chart, as Indiana often trapped him in the pocket or dragged him down as he tried to leave it and sacks and that interception resulted. That kind of freshman stuff is going to continue to happen. Forcier's downfield success rate did take a dip down to 57%, which isn't great. It's worth noting that those three TAs were scrambles that totaled 21 yards. One was a touchdown, the other a key first down. The only TA which you could construe negatively was a nine-yard gain on second and thirty after a Yakety Snap. On the other hand, the true damage wrought by those BRs is considerable.

Receiverchart:

Two flat drops, one by Grady on a screen that probably wasn't going anywhere and, for the second consecutive week, a ball that hit Webb between the 8 and the 0 and would have gone for a first down. Not a whole lot of excitement elsewhere as Michigan struggled to protect Forcier and largely avoided downfield passing.

And PROTECTION METRIC(!):

PROTECTION METRIC: 22/32, Koger –1, Brown –2, Team –2, Dorrestein –5.

That is not good. That is bad, and all of it save the "team" category came when Indiana defensive ends pwned the opposition. That might be understandable when you're a pass-catching tight end or a tailback, but Dorrestein was responsible for a lot of the Forcier chaos and didn't do much to justify Mark Huyge's move inside. Huyge's struggled in pass protection himself; unless Patrick Omameh surges into the starting position he lost in spring—not likely at this point—it's going to be those guys the rest of the way and the protection will be dodgy.

What happened to the counter dive of doom?

Indiana adjusted to it. Watch the backside DE:

He sees the H-back pull across the formation and starts flowing down the line in preparation for the block. Here Koger pops him good and he gets blown back and must make a tackle downfield after giving up a crease but the next couple times Michigan ran the dive of doom they closed the hole off at the line of scrimmage and kept it to a couple yards. Michigan then abandoned it, but on second and two they ran a similar-looking variant that sucked a linebacker into a downfield block and popped Minor into the endzone:

Michigan will probably try it out a couple times against Michigan State to see how MSU plans on responding to it, and if they do a similar thing they'll pull out the Swiss army knife and start countering it. One thing that should be quite successful against this adjustment is the QB-breaks-contain-with-lead-blocker play we saw in an earlier Picture Pages. This is where I think the offensive philosophy of Rodriguez pays off: okay, you adjusted to that. Instead of attempting to out-execute you, here are three things that look like that but aren't it and something entirely different. In Hail to the Victors 2008 I compared the backside end to the Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog and the zone read to the Holy Hand Grenade; in keeping with the Monty Python theme can we declare Rodriguez's offensive philosophy "and now for something completely different"?

Did the run game seem to slow down to you given those adjustments?

Slightly but the numbers are totally deceiving. The Indiana Shut Michigan's Ground Game Down meme's been floating around out there, mostly in the Ohio State reaches, but if this constitutes "shutting down":

Twelve of Minor and Brown’s 23 carries went for four yards or less.

Um, okay. That is a spectacularly convoluted way to say "half of the RB carries went for five or more yards." To the numbers: remove the 4 team carries for –28 yards (three kneeldowns and a grounding penalty), the two Forcier sacks for seven yards, and the 38 yards lost on two separate Yakety Snaps and your numbers are 42 carries for 222 yards, or 5.2 YPC. That is indeed a decline from the Eastern Michigan game, but it's not something to get worked up about.

Goats?

Not to blame Moosman particularly, but the whole snap fiasco from C to QB to guy who thought the freezes were ready to go was a downer. And Dorrestein was a problem in pass protection.

Heroes?

Odoms, for actions with and without the ball, plus Schilling had a very good day.

What does it mean for Michigan State and beyond?

Not having Molk is a downer because I thought Dorrestein had a rough go in pass protection and doesn't bring as much in the run game as Huyge was. And Michigan will have to bring out its ninjitsu stuff next week because I guarantee Michigan State will have everything Michigan's done to date scouted; catching them overreacting to last month's hotness will be a key in the game, and exploiting State's lack of discipline and general hatred will be the order of the day. Hate makes you strong, and stupid.

Other than that it was pretty much par for the course: Carlos Brown is ridiculously fast. Brandon Minor is a moose. Tate Forcier is really accurate and really good for a freshman but hasn't quite learned what he can and what he can't do at this level. I have a feeling Michigan State's ability to make Forcier pay when he tries to scramble out of the pocket will be the difference.

This week's lines just came out. Here's the Michigan-Michigan State one:

10/03 12:00 PM
155 Michigan
156 Michigan St	Big 10 GAME OFF BOARD Michigan-QB-Forcier-Questionable

 
Urgh. Here's why Forcier is questionable:

There's another one if you want it. I watched Forcier go off the field holding his arm awkwardly. It may be bruised heavily. It may be sprained. According to one long-time poster who ran into him Saturday night, it's the latter:

…he said he has a AC joint sprain and a big bruise. He said he injured himself like this before in high school and he couldn't throw until Friday of that week.

He was in obvious pain and wouldn't shake anyones hand with his right arm. We'll see, but its a little more serious than just a "bruise". That being said, he looked fine throwing the ball on that last TD pass to Odoms.

1577 points and more than a year registered. This is not a drive-by.

Sprains can be weird; you can operate with them okay immediately afterwards only to wake up the next day virtually unable to move the joint because of all the swelling. Forcier's touchdown to Odoms is no assurance he'll be fine for next week. Medical-talkin' guys on the internet on AC joint sprains:

If you don't need surgery, range-of-motion exercises should be started as pain eases, followed by a program of strengthening. At first, exercises are done with the arm kept below shoulder level. The program advances to include strength exercises for the rotator cuff and shoulder blade muscles. In most cases, the pain goes away almost completely within three weeks. Full recovery can take up to six weeks for grade two separations and up to 12 weeks for grade three separations. Since there is little danger of making the condition worse, you can usually do whatever activities you can tolerate.

Given the lack of concern expressed by both Rodriguez and Forcier in the aftermath of the Indiana game, it's probably a Grade 1 AC joint sprain that isn't a huge deal. The above link indicates that treatment for these sorts of injuries is "pain medications and a short period of rest using a shoulder sling." Don't expect Forcier to do any throwing most of the week; do expect his name on Thursday's injury report, probably as, yes, "questionable."

I bet he at least gives it a go. If there's no chance playing with it makes the thing worse, he can take a painkilling injection and be okay. There's some probability he's noticeably affected by it, though, and we should expect to see more Denard Robinson.