Home
we had subs it was crazy

Primary links

  • About
    • $upport (lol)
    • Ethics
    • FAQ
    • Privacy Policy
  • Contact
  • MGoStore
  • MGoBoard
    • MGoBoard FAQ
    • Ticket spreadsheet
    • Michigan bar locator
    • Moderator Action Sticky
  • Useful Stuff
    • Depth Chart By Class
    • Unofficial Two Deep
    • 2013 Offer Board
    • Crude Bug Tracking System
    • Third Down Stats
    • Diaries, Windows Live Writer, And You
    • Michigan Future Schedules
    • User-Curated HOF
    • 2013 Recruiting Board
    • Where To Eat In Ann Arbor
Home

Navigation

  • Forums
  • Recent posts

User login

  • Create new account
  • Request new password

MGoElsewhere

  • @MGoBlog (Brian)
  • @aceanbender
  • @TomVH (Tom)
  • RSS Feed
  • iPhone App
  • Facebook profile
  • MGoKindle Store
  • mgo.licio.us
  • Brian @ TSB [Archive]
  • Brian @ AOL [Archive]
  • Sour Salty Bitter Sweet

Michigan Blogs

  • Big House Blog
  • Burgeoning Wolverine Star
  • Genuinely Sarcastic
  • Go Blue Michigan Wolverine
  • Holdin' The Rope
  • MGoFootball
  • MVictors
  • Maize 'n' Blue Nation
  • Maize 'n' Brew
  • Maize And Go Blue
  • Michigan Hockey Net
  • The Blog That Yost Built
  • The Hoover Street Rag
  • The M Block
  • The M Zone
  • The Wolverine Blog
  • Touch The Banner
  • UMGoBlog
  • UMHoops
  • UMTailgate
  • Wolverine Liberation Army

M On The Net

  • mgovideo
  • MGoBlue.com
  • Mike DeSimone
  • Recruiting Planet
  • The Wolverine
  • Go Blue Wolverine
  • Winged Helmet
  • UMGoBlue.com
  • MaizeRage.org
  • Puckhead
  • The M Den
  • True Blue Fan Forum

Big Ten Blogs

  • Illinois
    • A Lion Eye
    • Hail To The Orange
    • Illinois Baseball Report
    • Illinois Loyalty
  • Indiana
    • Inside The Hall
    • The Crimson Quarry
  • Iowa
    • Black Heart, Gold Pants
    • Fight For Iowa
  • Michigan State
    • The Only Colors
  • Minnesota
    • GopherHole.com
    • The Daily Gopher
    • I'm In Love With A Fringe Bowl Team
    • TNABACG
  • Nebraska
    • Big Red Network
    • Corn Nation
    • Husker Mike's Blasphemy
    • Husker Gameday
  • Northwestern
    • Sippin' On Purple
    • Lake The Posts
  • Notre Dame
    • The House Rock Built
    • One Foot Down
  • Ohio State
    • Eleven Warriors
    • Buckeye Commentary
    • Men of the Scarlet and Gray
    • Our Honor Defend
    • The Buckeye Nine
  • Penn State
    • Slow States
    • Black Shoe Diaries
    • Happy Valley Hardball
    • Penn State Clips
    • Linebacker U
    • Nittany White Out
  • Purdue
    • Boiled Sports
    • Hammer and Rails
  • Wisconsin
    • Bruce Ciskie

Links of Note

  • Baseball
    • Big Ten Hardball
    • College Baseball Today
    • The Baseball Zealot
    • The College Baseball Blog
  • Basketball
    • Ken Pomeroy
    • Basketball Prospectus
    • Midmajority
  • College Hockey
    • Chris Heisenberg
    • College Hockey Stats
    • Inside College Hockey
    • Michigan College Hockey
    • Hockey's Future
    • Sioux Sports
    • USCHO
    • Western College Hockey
    • CCHA
      • LSSU Hockey
      • Bronco Hockey Blog
  • Football
    • Smart Football
    • Every Day Should Be Saturday
    • Doctor Saturday
    • CFB Stats
    • Harold Stassen
    • NCAA D-I Stats Page
    • The Wizard Of Odds
  • General
    • Sports Central
  • Local Interest
    • The Ann Arbor Chronicle
    • Arborwiki
    • Arbor Update
    • Teeter Talk
    • Vacuum
  • Teams Of The D
    • Lions
      • Pride of Detroit
      • Fire Millen
    • Pistons
      • Detroit Bad Boys
      • Need4Sheed
    • Tigers
      • Roar Of The Tigers
      • The Detroit Tigers Weblog
      • The Daily Fungo
    • Red Wings
      • On The Wings
      • Behind The Jersey
      • Winging It In Motown
    • Michigan Sports Forum

Archive

  • May 2013 (54)
  • April 2013 (94)
  • March 2013 (104)
  • February 2013 (81)
  • January 2013 (93)
  • December 2012 (74)
  • November 2012 (142)
  • October 2012 (143)
  • September 2012 (107)
  • August 2012 (103)
  •  
  • 1 of 11
  • ››

Get Yer Tickets

Football Display Case

NFL Watches

Follow your favorite team with localtv-satellite.com: Click Here.

Site Search

Diaries

  • New
  • Popular
  • Hot
  • Does Expansion Actually Lead to More Recruits From a Certain Region?
    maizeonblueaction - 13 hours ago
  • Raiding the B1G-er Big Ten: Recruiting Prospects in Maryland and Rutgers Territory
    The Mathlete - 1 day ago
  • A Cynical Take on Why Expansion May be Dead for the Forseeable Future
    maizeonblueaction - 2 days ago
  • LIGHT IT UP, AGAIN. WALLPAPER
    jonvalk - 3 days ago
  • Using Rivals' Star Ratings To Look At Big Ten Football Recruiting: 2002-2013
    LSAClassOf2000 - 4 days ago
  •  
  • 1 of 4
  • ››
more
  • Using Rivals' Star Ratings To Look At Big Ten Football Recruiting: 2002-2013
    LSAClassOf2000 - 896 views
  • More Milford Men Than Michigan Men: Comparing the 11-12 and 12-13 Hockey Teams
    MGoBlueline - 788 views
  • UMich NFL draft history, Part III
    blueheron - 766 views
  • LIGHT IT UP, AGAIN. WALLPAPER
    jonvalk - 704 views
  • A Cynical Take on Why Expansion May be Dead for the Forseeable Future
    maizeonblueaction - 589 views
  •  
  • 1 of 2
  • ››
more
  • More Milford Men Than Michigan Men: Comparing the 11-12 and 12-13 Hockey Teams
    MGoBlueline - 9 comments
  • UMich NFL draft history, Part III
    blueheron - 3 comments
  • Does Expansion Actually Lead to More Recruits From a Certain Region?
    maizeonblueaction - 3 comments
  • ‹‹
  • 2 of 2
  •  
more

MGoBoard

  • New
  • Recent
  • Hot
  • Memorial Day Weekend (here for the) posbang thread
    4 replies
  • The Official SIAP Alan Branch Photoshop Thread
    5 replies
  • Which Pay Site Is Best?
    28 replies
  • OT: Star Trek + Dilithium = Esplode…. Esplode clarity
    20 replies
  • OT - ND paid Charlie more than Brian Kelly in 2012
    30 replies
  • Softball SuperRegionals Open Thread
    22 replies
  • OT: ESPN hires Paul Finebaum
    35 replies
  • OT: Red Wings vs Hawks Game 4 Open Thread
    187 replies
  • Mark May Trolls Ohio State Again, Buckeyes Fans Let Him Have It On Twitter
    35 replies
  • Who should replace ND in a long-term series?
    134 replies
  • Baseball Eliminated from B1G
    20 replies
  • Denard, other rookies discuss Star Trek
    55 replies
  • Urbs and his obsession with butts
    52 replies
  • Very OT: The Hangover 3 *Thread May Contain Spoilers*
    59 replies
  • Scouting Report: Jabrill Peppers
    151 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • Memorial Day Weekend (here for the) posbang thread
    4 replies
  • Which Pay Site Is Best?
    28 replies
  • The Official SIAP Alan Branch Photoshop Thread
    5 replies
  • Scouting Report: Jabrill Peppers
    151 replies
  • OT: Star Trek + Dilithium = Esplode…. Esplode clarity
    20 replies
  • Denard, other rookies discuss Star Trek
    55 replies
  • Baseball Eliminated from B1G
    20 replies
  • Who should replace ND in a long-term series?
    134 replies
  • OT: Red Wings vs Hawks Game 4 Open Thread
    187 replies
  • OT - ND paid Charlie more than Brian Kelly in 2012
    30 replies
  • Very OT: The Hangover 3 *Thread May Contain Spoilers*
    59 replies
  • OT - Official MGoBaby Thread (you got 'em, we want to see 'em)
    150 replies
  • OT: ESPN hires Paul Finebaum
    35 replies
  • Urbs and his obsession with butts
    52 replies
  • ESPN's Luginbill Predicts Top 5 Impact Freshmen, includes Derrick Green
    72 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • OT: Red Wings vs Hawks Game 3 Open Thread
    203 replies
  • OT: Red Wings vs Hawks Game 4 Open Thread
    187 replies
  • Scouting Report: Jabrill Peppers
    151 replies
  • OT - Official MGoBaby Thread (you got 'em, we want to see 'em)
    150 replies
  • How much do you really hate ohio?
    145 replies
  • OT? Graduatin' Season. Who had the Worst Commencement Speaker?
    141 replies
  • Who should replace ND in a long-term series?
    134 replies
  • Speight and TomVH on Peppers
    116 replies
  • OT: Red Wings @ Hawks Game 2 Open Thread
    114 replies
  • Prayers for Moore, Oklahoma
    112 replies
  • Alex Bars to Notre Dame
    96 replies
  • 5 star 2013 DT may not be enrolling at Notre Dame
    91 replies
  • OT: NBA Draft Lottery
    78 replies
  • ESPN 30 for 30 on the Bad Boys
    77 replies
  • Michigan Softball vs. Cal Open Thread
    75 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››

mgo.licio.us

  • SEC coaches with tiny faces

    I don't think they changed Les at all actually

    0 comments
  • This college baseball team is the best at postgame interviews

    national champs baby

    1 comments
  • Rounding up the latest in NCAA absurdities.

    Patrick Hruby is doing God's work.

    0 comments
  • Cornell wrestler tops Michigan's Trey Burke for Sports Illustrated award | The Detroit News | detroitnews.com

    first comment: "EVERY ATHLETE HAS ASPIRATIONS OF WINNING AND WE HAVE OUR FAVORITES BUT IT IS ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO OTHER STUDENTS ACHIEVE THEIR GOALS, TOO!"

    0 comments
  • Burke hearing he'll go two through six in NBA draft

    stupid Pistons and their refusal to tank properly

    0 comments
  • 2013 NHL Draft Prospect: Andrew Copp

    rundown of Michigan's riser

    0 comments
  • Michigan's key returnee: Glenn Robinson

    needs moar usage

    0 comments
  • Former Arkansas QB Brandon Mitchell transferring to NC State

    so much for that

    0 comments
  • The B1G List: Ranking the State Fossils of the Big Ten

    This list is completely arbitrary and not a genuine analysis of the relative merits of state fossils.

    0 comments
  • Trey Burke turns to inner circle to prepare for NBA draft

    will be michigan's highest pick in a while

    2 comments
  • B1G assistant coach salaries on the rise

    money has to go somewhere

    0 comments
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. is motivated by his critics and doubters, and supremely confident in his ability

    I am only motivated by people who have no opinion about me.

    0 comments
  • Big Ten football procrastinates on parity-based scheduling, and nothing ever changes

    the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection

    1 comments
  • Michigan's Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary ranked inside top 20 on ESPN's 2014 draft board

    but I thought that draft was supposed to be incredibly loaded?

    1 comments
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. turning heads, viewed as a first-rounder by some teams, analyst says

    If you're gonna go please be in the first round.

    0 comments
  •  
  • 1 of 2
  • ››
more

stephen hopkins

Spring Game Extrapolations: Offense

By Brian — April 12th, 2011 at 3:23 PM — 133 comments
Filed under:
  • al borges denard fusion cuisine
  • denard robinson
  • fitzgerald toussaint
  • michael shaw
  • mike cox
  • mooseback
  • offense
  • power off tackle
  • roy roundtree
  • spring game
  • stephen hopkins
  • vincent smith

Nothing will ever bring home how bizarrely intense people get about spring football than Orson's annual in-depth review of Florida's spring game. It's the closest he gets to being a conventional team blogger, a straightforward piece of analysis long enough to be a Marky Mark Mangino post livened up by Orson's tendency to call things a "boiled bag of rat innards". Orson is writing about defensive tackles. It is April and college football is bored.

Michigan's got one of those this weekend and these are the things I'll be extrapolating answers from the tiniest filaments of evidence about:

Is Can Have Tailback

 stephen-hopkins-2 lovemoose

Michigan's tailback last year was Denard Robinson and when it wasn't Denard Robinson it was people being enraged that Vincent Smith wasn't really fast or falling down past the line of scrimmage. This year some variety of pro-style offense will be deployed; having a tailback becomes significantly less optional.

Your candidates:

  • Vincent Smith, the 5'6" Pahokeean who was the leading non-Robinson rusher last year with 601 yards. He took 136 carries to get those—4.4 per—and struggled badly against anything approximating a good defense.
  • Michael Shaw. Carlos Brown 2.0 averaged a full yard per carry more than Smith mostly because he got hurt after the Bowling Green game.
  • Michael Cox. The Loch Ness Monster is reputed to be a stallion of a man capable of great feats. Unfortunately he is 50-50 to run towards the correct endzone on any given play.
  • Stephen Hopkins. Hopkins had some fumbling issues and only ended up with 37 carries last year but his size made him an effective lead blocker for Robinson and his rushes promised a Minor-like downhill moose down the road. We're a bit further down the road and Hopkins's new head coach loves him some moose.
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint. Toussaint has been vaporware in his first two years. Maybe he can stay healthy for the next twenty seconds.

There is also The Greatest Player In The History Of The World According To Two Jacksons. Thomas Rawls enters with the sort of hype you can only get by being a generic late-rising three star coached by Fred Jackson's son and recruited by Fred Jackson. Since he didn't enroll early we won't get to test the Jacksons' theory that Thomas Rawls encompasses the power of the sun and gently warms the earth each morning.

Looking for: A somewhat lighter, faster Hopkins with a grasp of what he should do. He's probably going to be the best back on the roster and he's now in a system that loves/needs a guy like him.

Fearing: Vincent Smith looks pretty much the same and still has a lock on the top TB spot. It's plausible that Smith's injury lingered into last season—remember he tore that ACL during the OSU game, so he had well under a year to get ready—and that he'll display a lot more speed and agility two years removed from it. If that's the case then maybe he can be a decent Big Ten starter. If he's still the same guy he was last year and he's still at the top of the depth chart and he's getting a lot of carries from the I when Denard could be doing something, guh.

Will only believe three games into the season: Cox as Herschel Walker. That guy is never going to play. He's a redshirt junior and couldn't get a carry last year even when half the tailback corps was injured and the rest was Smith and freshman Hopkins. And this is at tailback, the position where you can leap into the starting lineup on day one if, say, you're a human battering ram who runs like a gazelle. The only RB in recent Michigan history to get noticeably better late in his career was Chris Perry. Everyone else was the same guy they always were.

The Roundtree Question

What do you do with the Big Ten's second leading receiver when his production was predicated on the threat of Denard Robinson running and his position only sort of exists in the platonic ideal of a MANBALL offense?

The answer to this is probably "nothing." Borges said something about running a ton of three and four wide this season. Even if that's forced it sounds like Borges is going to roll with it, especially because his best wideout seems most comfortable in the slot—kinda need to have three WRs to have a slot—and the tight ends are sparse and stone-handed. Late-era Carr teams based out of three wide even after Steve Breaston had moved on to the NFL. Borges is more of a bomber than Carrbord and just spent a couple years running one of those "West Coast" offenses that throws damn near everything out there. So… yeah, expect three wideouts.

Okay, then, but the further question is: what will Borges do with the guy? Roundtree went nuts last year when the threat of Denard Robinson sucked safeties up and saw him stunningly wide open against Notre Dame and Indiana and Illinois and several other times besides. Can Borges run what he wants to run and surround Roundtree with nothing but grass?

Looking for: Michigan safeties to fail spectacularly because they can't decide whether to take Denard or stay back. If you can't do it to Michigan safeties you can't do it to anyone.

Fearing: Borges can't evolve the system to keep ahead of defenses and get those almost free touchdowns. I'm sure he can emulate QB Lead Oh Noes but Michigan had to keep re-arranging it to prevent safeties from showing up in the wrong place at the critical moment. Borges is a smart guy but his knowledge is in another arena. I'm not sure he'll be able to create as many opportunities with Denard's legs.

Will only believe three games into the season: Jeremy Gallon on the field.

Okay, You Run Power, But How?

powpuff1

Michigan ran POWER last year. They didn't run it much, but they did use it as a counter to the constant stretch action. It was fairly successful as a changeup. That move was part of the shift in Michigan's offense away from a true zone read to an odd QB-as-TB thing people called "QB iso" and didn't know what to do with—the AP put him on their All-America team as a "back." Like Rodriguez coming into DeBord's already extant stretch offense, Hoke is walking into a situation where his guys have some clue about what the new stuff is.

Unfortunately, we've seen bits and pieces of power plays run from under center in the practice videos that have invariably been stuffed. This is rock hard evidence it is not a good idea. So, like, what I'm saying is that if you've got Denard Robinson and you want to run power you might as well line up in the shotgun and run it with Denard Robinson, right?

A secondary question: how serious is Hoke about his distaste for zone running? He seems like a pretty hands-off guy when it comes to the offense, but if there's one thing he's stressed on that side of the ball it's that the team "will run power" and fullbacks will have their spine compressed and whatnot. This is something of a problem because Michigan has just completed the transition away from hampeople. Mike DeBord installed a zone stretch running game in 2006 and Michigan started recruiting to it. That first class was David Molk and Mark Huyge, now redshirt seniors.

Everyone recruited since has been either a relatively light and mobile spread OL or a prototypical left tackle. The prototype will be fine in any system; guys like Molk and Omameh and Ricky Barnum might not be. If Michigan spends the offseason putting beef on the interior line it might work out… or it might give them a bunch of tweeners not particularly good at anything.

Looking for: QB power.

Fearing: RB power.

Will only believe three games into the season: Michigan guards as effective drive blockers.

Lamarckian Denard

 Denard_PacmanGame_medium

EVOLLLLLLLLLVE

It was at last year's spring game that Robinson went from a freak show who should be moved to tailback to a freak show who should be in the Heisman running. He can't improve that much again without melting anyone who watches him, Ark of the Covenant style, but he was still pretty raw last year. He had bouts of drive- and game-crippling inaccuracy; he occasionally joined the Rex Grossman "f*** it, I'm going deep" club; he was restricted to a set of limited routes that teams adapted to as the leaves turned. He should progress. How much?

Looking for: Incremental improvement.

Fearing: Uncomfortable on drops and still prone to chucking slants well behind his receivers.

Will only believe three games into the season: hopefully that Denard Robinson can do anything.

  • 133 comments

Upon Further Review 2010: Offense vs Iowa

By Brian — October 22nd, 2010 at 2:43 PM — 70 comments
Filed under:
  • 2010 iowa
  • darryl stonum
  • denard robinson
  • junior hemingway
  • rocko khoury
  • stephen hopkins
  • tate forcier
  • taylor lewan
  • taylor lewan hates donkeys
  • upon further review

Substitution notes: Obviously Tate came in for Denard. I think the injury Denard went off with was not one that would have prevented him from returning, but more on that later. On the line, Khoury came in for Molk when Molk left injured on the first drive; Huyge played about a third of the game after the Lewan penalty exhibition. Lewan returned late in the third.

Shaw continues to be limited, so Smith was the primary back. Hopkins continues to get more carries as the season progresses. At receiver, Stokes got more time in Odoms's absence (but not nearly as much as Odoms would have) and Gallon appears to be eating into Grady's playing time.

Formation notes: Iowa spent most of the day with one of their linebackers lined up over the slot. Since I am an idiot I did not take a snapshot of this, but that's "slot 4-3": two deep safeties with a linebacker outside the box on the slot guy. "Base 4-3" in this case was a 4-3 in the box with one of the safeties moving up on the slot guy and Iowa showing one-high. "Split 4-3" was a pass defense with the linebackers spread out; it was mostly featured late when Michigan was in pass-only mode.

Michigan didn't do anything new other than show a lot of I-form featuring one of the tight ends as a lead blocker.

Show:

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 11
Simple as Molk(+2) and Schilling(+1) momentarily double Klug and then Molk gets a tough seal as Schilling pops out on SLB Hunter. Lewan(+1) kicks out Clayborn and Smith has a crease with no one filling until the safeties show up. Actually think a pull would have been correct here too as the backside end was getting blocked and there was no scrape but this worked. I'm not sure this is a read so no ZR.
RUN+: Molk(2), Schilling, Lewan RUN-:
M36 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 4
Omameh(+1) and Molk(+1) club Ballard out of the hole, cutting off SLB pursuit; Koger meets the MLB near the LOS and gets knocked back a little, allowing Dorrestein's guy to come off and tackle. Dorrestein -0.5 for a less than authoritative kick. Molk is injured and leaves.
RUN+: Molk, Omameh RUN-: Dorrestein(0.5)
M40 2 6 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Iso Hopkins 4
The FB in this package was almost always a TE, FWIW. MLB is screaming downhill at this and runs into Koger at the LOS, standing everything up. Omameh and Khoury did an eh job on Ballard this time; Hopkins(+1) runs into beef at the LOS and lurches the pile forward four yards.
RUN+: Hopkins RUN-:
M44 3 2 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Waggle deep comeback Hemingway 18
Inside zone fake with a rollout from Robinson. He's got Koger for the simple first down but also has Hemingway deeper so he goes for that, hitting it with perfect timing for a big chunk. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
O38 1 10 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Iso Hopkins 7
Schilling(+1) and Khoury(+1) again abuse Klug, bashing him out of the hole. MLB comes up to pop Koger at the LOS again but this time there's a crease because Lewan(+1) has kicked out Clayborn. The difference on this play and the QB lead draw and other iso is Lewan giving Michigan more room behind the DE. Hopkins is tripped going through the small hole and manages to fall through a tackle for a nice chunk.
O31 2 3 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run ? Hopkins 2
Watching a replay of the previous play; impossible to make out what happens.
O29 3 1 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Iso Hopkins 0
Once too many times: Schilling(-1) loses a prepared Daniels, who fights playside and crams the hole, forcing a Hopkins cutback that could get the first down if he was left one-on-one with a linebacker. He's not; Omameh(-1) also couldn't kick out Ballard. The two guys submarine the run for nothing.
RUN+: RUN-: Schilling, Omameh
O29 4 1 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 8
High snap takes an extra beat to bring in, screwing up the play somewhat. So I'm not sure if Omameh and Dorrestein have gotten pwned or if it just looks like it because Robinson is a step behind where he should be. It certainly looks like this is designed to go up the middle with Khoury(+1) and Schilling(+1) killing Daniels; Khoury then pops out on the MLB to erase him. Denard(+2) then cuts past the two linemen flowing outside and has room for the first because of that Khoury block. An arm tackle a yard downfield changes his momentum and sends him past another linebacker, but he's been slowed significantly and the secondary gets there after decent yardage. I do think the right side of the line should have done better here.
RUN+: Khoury, Schilling, Robinson(2) RUN-: Omameh, Dorrestein
O21 1 10 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Waggle FB flat Koger 5
Iowa adjusts and runs a zone that has a safety coming over the top so the deeper route isn't there; Robinson checks down to Koger for a few. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O16 2 5 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 7
Inside zone looks just like an iso so the backside DT fights to what he think will be yet another run right in his face. The handoff is made on the other side of Robinson and all he's done is lock himself out. Schilling(+1) helps. Khoury(+1) and Omameh(+1) destroy Ballard and Lewan(+1) releases downfield to club the MLB, providing a lane for Smith to hit. He fails to see it and tries to cut outside, where there's is no blocking. Fortunately for M this is blocked by Dorrestein's ass. Smith comes to a stop, but the blocking is so good he can start up again in the same lane. Clayborn, given time by the missed cut, tracks down to tackle from behind.
RUN+: Khoury, Omameh, Schilling, Lewan, Dorrestein RUN-: Smith
O9 1 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 1
Safety moves down on the slot and all three LBs are in the box as Iowa shows one-high. I'm not sure what Michigan is doing with their backside reads here but since they're blocking the backside end (Clayborn) the guy to read is the SLB. He's not going anywhere and he's about to get a blocker in his face so there's a lane Robinson can take if he pulls; he gives (ZR -1). Because the interior OL has lost this round (-0.5 for Schillling, Molk, Omameh) Smith has nowhere to go and ends up cutting back into the hole Robinson could have hit if he'd kept it. He's there much later, though, and it closes off.
RUN+: RUN-: Omameh(0.5), Khoury(0.5), Schilling(0.5), Robinson
O8 2 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Yakety sax ? Inc
Snap fumbled. This isn't on Khoury; it's a perfect snap. Robinson recovers it and manages to avoid a tackle before chucking the ball. No idea where it's going or if he's trying to complete it because it's knocked down. (BA, N/A, N/A)
O8 3 G Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Slant Smith 8
Smith smokes a LB over and gets inside of him where there is no help; Robinson hits him for the easy TD. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 8 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 7 -13 pen
Webb's guy on the end fends him off and forces Robinson to head back inside, where he just has enough room to slice upfield because Schilling(-1) got a couple shoves on Daniels and fell in his path, knocking him off stride but not cutting him or seriously delaying. Khoury(+1) and Omameh(+1) have obliterated Ballard and Dorrestein(+1) has walled off a linebacker, opening up a lane. Robinson runs by Clayborn; Daniels grabs him from behind and manages to ride him to the ground. This was opening up big but for the Schilling mess. Lewan then gets a dumb personal foul afterwards. That's not going on the run chart but guuuuuh.
RUN+: Khoury, Omameh, Dorrestein RUN-: Schilling
M14 2 16 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 4
Fakes a flare screen. Indecision from Schilling and Khoury at first; Schilling then pops the NT, who falls, but falls well in the backfield right in Robinson's desired path. He has to improvise. Dorrestein(+1) does a great job of getting his guy back and giving Robinson the corner, but Hemingway(-1) whiffed on the outside and the charging corner forces the play back inside to help.
RUN+: Dorrestein RUN-: Hemingway
M18 3 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass TE flat Webb 3
No one open so Robinson checks down to a hopeless route and Michigan punts. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 5 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M27 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 7
Just six in the box for Iowa still so this is a play with a lot of room to operate; Robinson decides to cut outside since there's no linebacker over there and he can get outside Dorrestein's(+1) good block; Omameh(-1) lost Ballard on a single block, cutting off that hole. Webb has lost the playside LB because he was blocking like Robinson would head inside the tackle; Hopkins runs by the guy in an effort to get to the safety and the LB disconnects to tackle, but not before a good gain. (RPS+1)
RUN+: Robinson, Dorrestein RUN-: Omameh
M34 2 3 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 9
Okay, this is pretty much the same play but operates differently since both lead blockers are heading inside the tackles. Michigan thinks is is different; I'm just a blogger talking to laypeople. Schilling(-1) gets chucked away by Daniels—impressive strength display there--but Hopkins(+1) sees this, changes his planned blocking path, and clubs Daniels out of the play at the LOS. Webb(+1) hits the MLB and Lewan(+1) again kicks Clayborn out, giving Robinson a lane he takes.
RUN+: Hopkins, Webb, Lewan RUN-: Schilling
M45 1 10 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Iso Smith 2
Gurghelgasghas. Iso with Smith? Probably wouldn't have mattered if it was Jim Brown here because Khoury(-1) slips as he comes out of his stance and can't get the MLB; Omameh(-1) was beaten by Ballard. Both guys tackle downfield. Webb(+1) did help by getting a good block on the SLB, so this isn't zero.
RUN+: Webb RUN-: Omameh, Khoury
M47 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Rollout hitch Hemingway 3
Rollout catches Iowa by surprise and Smith gets outside of Clayborn, opening up the corner. Hemingway is open, though, so Robinson throws. Ball is short and well upfield, turning an easy first down into something less than that. Hemingway makes a good catch to dig it out. (IN, 1, protection 1/1)
50 3 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Penalty False start Lewan -5
ggrraaghrgahg
M45 3 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Fly Stonum Int
So this is pretty much terrible. Illinois stunts. Schilling sees it and picks it up; Khoury(-1) has been bowled over by the DT. Robinson could stand there and fire. Instead he shows his inexperience and rolls back, then sets up to bomb it deep. Underneath he probably had Smith with a 50-50 shot at the first. Instead he chucks it deep. 1) this is covered. 2) it is so far away from Stonum that the WR can't even tackle on the INT and turn this into a glorified punt. Given the three guys around Stonum I'm giving this the bad one (BR, 0, protection 1/2, Khoury -1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-7, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Zone read keeper Robinson 7
With Binns shuffling down the line to take away the cutback this is open and the keep is correct (ZR +1). Binns does recover enough to help out from behind when Sash fills.
RUN+: Robinson RUN-:
M27 2 3 Shotgun empty H-back 1 1 3 Split 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 7
Koger(+1) blasts the MLB and Lewan(+2) caves in Clayborn to give Robinson an easy decision to slash it outside. Khoury and Schilling had also destroyed the playside DT, FWIW.
RUN+: Lewan(2), Webb RUN-:
M34 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under Pass PA bubble screen Gallon 18
Iowa changes up their D and for the first time all day they do not have a linebacker over the slot to kill the bubble; Michigan goes with the bubble (CA, 3, screen). Stonum(+1) gets a good block on the corner and Gallon(+1) makes the most of it, smoothly cutting past the Stonum block and almost taking advantage of a falling safety before the slot LB manages to shut it down. RPS +1.
RUN+: Gallon, Stonum RUN-:
O46 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 4
You can tell Iowa's cheating a bit with the slot LB, and he blitzes. Michigan still has a decent crease for Robinson up the middle but Robinson decides to cut back, screwing up all the blocking angles. He gets past one DT, has to cut up behind Koger on the backside DE, and then Hunter has a clear shot since Robinson's cutback screwed up the angles. Not going to offer plus/minus here.
O42 2 6 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 3
Again cheating the slot LB and blitzing him; this is not good awareness. Khoury(-1) is beaten by the frontside DT and Robinson has to cut back. Dorrestein had no chance to cut a slanting backside DT, and that guy tackles after a short gain. RPS –1.
RUN+: Robinson RUN-: Khoury
O39 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass TE cross Koger 13
Koger actually falls down out of his stance but gets back up and finishes the route. It's tough to tell if he's coming to Koger second or staring him down all the way. Either way he goes to him in a pocket in the zone, getting the ball over a linebacker covering Stonum and getting it into him just before the safety can close him down. For the record, Clayborn did get by Lewan eventually, though not enough to warrant a minus since Robinson had been sitting in the pocket a while and Clayborn still had to pull up lest he pick up a late hit. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
O26 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 5
Schilling(+1) cuts the backside DT down, but Lewan misses his difficult cut and there's no cutback. Playside guys do a great job of stringing it out as Dorrestein and Omameh fight the Iowa OL to a draw. Shoving knocks both Omameh and the playside Iowa DT off the ball a bit, leaving Robinson a small hole to hit, which he does.
RUN+: Schilling, Omameh(+0.5) RUN-:
O21 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Bubble screen Gallon 4
Michigan notices the cheating LB and throws the bubble at it. For some reason they're not running the adjustment where the outside WR blocks down on the safety, so Sash has a shot at Gallon for a major loss; Gallon(+1) jukes him out of his shorts and is off... to the.... tripping four yards downfield. Argh. Seriously, nothing tripped him but his own feet here. (CA, 3, screen)
O17 3 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under Run QB lead draw Robinson 3
Khoury(+1) does an admirable job of fighting off an attempted stunt by the playside DT. This gives Michigan a gap that a charging LB is filling; Smith(+1) pops him and gives Robinson a chance outside, where Lewan(+1) has blasted Clayborn's backup off the line two yards; Robinson burrows in for the first.
RUN+: Khoury, Smith, Lewan RUN-:
O14 1 10 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Penalty False start Lewan -5
This is straight up WTF. I don't see Lewan moving at all. If he does it's a millisecond early. Incredibly ticky-tack.
O19 1 15 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson -2
Iowa all over this with the playside DE moving outside before the snap and using that leverage to get outside Webb; Gallon(an unfair –1) is dealing with a LB who shifted right over him and gets owned, forcing Robinson back into the DE. (RPS -1)
O21 2 17 Shotgun empty 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Hitch Smith Inc
Both Iowa LBs on the slot guys to the playside get chucks on the routes, disrupting them. Smith tries to sit down in front of the safety and Robinson throws accurately to him but he's got such a tiny window that this would be an NFL-level throw. LB deflects it for the incompletion. Maybe Gallon had a better shot at a window here; the checkdown to Koger was available but probably not more than five or six yards. Excellent play from Iowa; if you can do this you are not going to have many QBs, let alone Denard, put it in your face. I have no idea what to chart this. I am going to go with MA; Robinson had a tiny window and missed it by a foot but this was probably his best option. (MA, 0, protection 2/2)
M21 3 17 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Slant Stonum Inc
A good throw into more excellent coverage; this is a deeper throw that's not going to pick up the first but will get them into chip-shot FG range or give them the opportunity to go. CB Hyde is right there and reaches into break the pass up. Throw was high but had to be so the LB didn't bat it. Stonum would have had to be a magician to bring this in. (CA, 1, protection 2/2) Stonum gets flagged for not being close enough to the LOS, anyway.
Drive Notes: Blocked FG(38), 7-14, 8 min 2nd Q. Last series is three impressive plays from Iowa D and, on the first, whoever's calling the plays absent Norm Parker. I'm not even mad. Except about special teams, of course. Note that next drive would have started at 25 minus irrelevant, dumb block in the back.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M7 1 10 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Iso Smith 1
Huyge has entered the game, FWIW. Playside DT fights through the initial double, getting playside of Schilling(-1) as the backside guy slides down the line because Omameh(-1) can't ward him off. Smith has two ugly options: run into nothing on the frontside of the play or cutback into an unblocked Hunter. He picks A.
RUN+: RUN-: Schilling, Omameh
M8 2 9 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 2
Clayborn maintaining contain as Webb heads outside him for a lead block; looks like M was hoping Iowa would switch it up and crash the backside DE, giving Robinson a pull opportunity. They do not; handoff (ZR+1, RPS -1). Schilling(+1) gets an excellent block on the backside DT, sealing him, but Khoury(-1) and Omameh(-1) do nothing with their double, failing to move the playside guy at all. No crease; Smith runs into bodies for a limited gain.
M10 3 7 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Slot 4-3 Pass Deep comeback Stonum 9
Looks like cover two man from Iowa; Robinson drops back and surveys but doesn't have time because Huyge(-2) has been pancaked backwards and Clayborn is about to eat him. He has to hop back and throw off his back foot. The pass is to an open Stonum but is well short; Stonum digs it out for the first. The replay doesn't look like it's a catch but it's not clear so they let it stand. Given the difficulty of the throw I'll mark this MA. (MA, 1, protection 0/2, Huyge -2)
M19 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 6
Iowa fakes the one-high but backs out. Khoury(+1) and Schilling(+1) bash one DT back and then Khoury hops out on the MLB. MLB sets up in a spot that convinces Robinson to cut back, which he does; DT and MLB come off now-invalid blocks to tackle. Still a nice gain; think Robinson should have tried to shoot right up the middle instead of cutting.
RUN+: Schilling, Khoury RUN-:
M25 2 4 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 10
Same thing; this one sees Webb pull across the formation and meet the MLB right in the hole. Schilling(+0.5) and Khoury(+0.5) have again beaten the playside DT back, so the MLB has to attack; he cuts off the hole but is walled off by Webb. Robinson(+1) slices outside too fast for Clayborn to react as Smith(+1) gets a solid block on the charging Sash, giving Robinson a lane that is only closed down by a pursuing Hunter.
RUN+: Schilling(0.5), Khoury(0.5), Robinson, Smith RUN-:
M35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout hitch Hemingway 8
Simple pitch and catch that's open; Hemingway grabs it for a decent gain and picks up a few more YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M43 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 6
Khoury(-1) owned, driven far into the backfield and closing off what looks like a well-blocked play otherwise. Robinson has to cut back, way back, which kills the blocks on both backside DL. He has to run outside. A corner comes up; he cuts back inside, dodging that guy and sliding past Binns. Binns tackles desperately.
RUN+: Robinson(2) RUN-: Khoury
M49 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Slot 4-3 Pass Long handoff Stonum 2
Ball thrown low on a play that had a chance to get six, eight yards. Stonum digs it out for a couple but is on the ground as he brings it in. (IN, 2, screen)
O49 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Hitch Webb Inc
Good route package gets Webb wide open on a short hitch he'll be able to turn up for a first down, but Robinson inexplicably pumps and then wings it well high. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
O49 3 8 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Scramble Robinson 4
Robinson's looking at the left side of the field on which two Michigan WRs are drawing zone defenders deep; he should throw the out to Smith, who is probably going to have the first if the ball is thrown. Then he should hit Grady on the improv but doesn't, instead scrambling for a few yards. This was an easy read he biffed. (BR, N/A, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-21, EO1H. Give Michigan an extra 18 yards here and they can go for it. Penalty is a killer. I can see why they punted: hard to have a ton of faith in Robinson at that exact instant after he'd blown three straight plays.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M24 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Inside zone Shaw 1
I don't understand what they're doing with Webb here. They send him out to block no one; if he just blocks down on Clayborn, Robinson is in a ton of space running away from a MLB. Instead they just send him down to block no one at all. So Robinson hands off (ZR +1, RPS -1). Omameh(-1) and Khoury(-1) get killed by the playside DT and Shaw has nowhere to go. Schilling(-1) falls over so there's no backside block.
RUN+: RUN-: Omameh, Khoury, Schilling
M25 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Bubble screen Roundtree -1
Webb(-2) is owned by the slot LB. Just make him go inside of you and this is good yardage; instead he gets beat outside and Roundtree is tackled for loss. (CA, 3, screen)
M24 3 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Slot 4-3 Pass Drag Hemingway 4
Same patterns they ran on the third and eight before the half; this time Robinson checks down to the inside drag, which is caught but has no chance. Maybe should have looked at Grady deeper, but had to step up in the pocket because Clayborn beat Huyge(-1) around the corner and probably felt he had to dump it. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Huyge -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-21, 13 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M15 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Scramble Robinson 12
Show one-high and back out. Michigan rolls out and tries to hit a pass but Iowa has covered everything reasonably well and Robinson doesn't feel comfortable throwing. He cuts up just as Omameh(+1) gets an open-field shove on Clayborn, using his speed to pick up the first down. He takes a hit as he goes down and comes up holding his hand; he is done for the day.
RUN+: Robinson, Omameh RUN-:
M27 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass PA Hitch Koger 8
Forcier in; inside zone fake to a short hitch to the TE. PA had drawn the LB; open, hit with good timing; good YAC. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
M35 2 2 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Iso Shaw 5
Playside double gets the DT blown back (+0.5 Schilling, Khoury), but Omameh(-1) lost the DT to the inside and there's no hole. Shaw(+1) reads it, leaps over the fallen Omameh, and hits a cutback hole; Khoury gets the other half of his plus for shoving Hunter along the line and giving Shaw a gap for the first.
RUN+: Schilling(0.5), Khoury, Shaw RUN-: Omameh
M40 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Scramble Forcier 5
Hitches on this play covered, partially because Koger blocked Clayborn before releasing and knocked him back into a perfect accidental zone for his route. Forcier starts scrambling as Omameh lost Daniels on the interior; Khoury does well to pick him up but Forcier's moving. He cuts upfield into space, diving forward for a decent gain. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
M45 2 5 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Slot 4-3 Run Inside zone Shaw 0
High snap Forcier manages to corral; this looks like a stretch but they're not blocking it like one so I guess it's inside. Omameh(-1) can't seal the playside DT; Khoury(+1) does a great job of getting control of and blocking the backside guy downfield. Shaw cuts back and would have a lane but for Schilling(-1) falling, providing a lane for an unblocked LB to force Shaw upfield and into traffic.
M45 3 5 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Hitch Hemingway 4
This is very well covered but Forcier chucks it anyway, away from the defender and in a spot only his receiver can get it. Hemingway makes a diving grab to set up fourth and inches. (CA+, 1, protection 1/1)
M49 4 1 I-form twins 2 1 2 Base 4-3 Run Iso Hopkins 15
Iowa tightens the line so there are two 1-tech guys right over Khoury; the backside guy is unblocked and lunges for Forcier, tackling him as he makes the handoff. He does make the handoff. Schilling(+1) and Khoury(+1) pick up the other NT and deposit him a couple yards downfield; Huyge gets an okay block on Clayborn and then McColgan(+1) thumps him backwards, opening up a crease; Hopkins sails through it.
RUN+: McColgan, Khoury, Schilling RUN-:
O36 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass PA Hitch Stonum Inc
Corner blitz on Stonum's side of the line finds Stonum open after he forced the safety to respect the vertical route; Forcier wings it wide. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O36 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Improv Stonum Inc
Iowa again covering these short hitches so Forcier starts wheeling around; Michigan is not switching their routes and Iowa is dropping into three deep (RPS -1). Forcier wanders around and tries to find Stonum at the sideline for a few; throw is high and at the sidelines and isn't brought in. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
O36 3 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Drag Stonum 9
Same route set from before; why no ever the outside drag that actually has people dragging defenders too deep? Stonum has a step on his guy and Forcier hits him right in stride, allowing him to turn it up for near first-down yardage. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O27 4 1 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Waggle inside hitch Roundtree 12
Iowa way less aggressive this time, probably because M tips pass by bringing in a TE at FB instead of McColgan. Roundtree sits down inside as Iowa players fly out towards Koger on his little flat route (which was open and I thought he should have taken). Forcier sees it and throws a nice catchable pass high so no one knocks it down en route; Roundtree goes up to get it. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
O15 1 10 I-form 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Iso Smith 0
The fumble. Schilling(-1) gets chucked by Klug and then Koger(-1) just runs right by him, allowing the guy to kill Smith in the backfield; Smith fumbles.
RUN+: RUN-: Schilling, Koger
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-21, 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M35 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Deep slant Hemingway Inc
Corner blitz; Forcier looks to the other side of the field and finds Hemingway open on a deep slant since a shallower one sucked in Hunter. Throw is high to get it over hands but catchable; it is dropped. Hopkins whiffed on his block on Clayborn as M slid its protection. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Hopkins -1)
M35 2 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Run Belly Hopkins 5
Omameh(+1) blasts the playside DT down the line. Dorrestein(-1) is moving to the second level but gets a push from the playside DE that makes him also block the already blown-out Iowa DT, leaving the playside LB free. Webb(+1) kicks that DE out and Hopkins runs directly upfield for decent yardage. Unblocked MLB does tackle.
RUN+: Omameh, Webb RUN-: Dorrestein
M40 3 5 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Improv ? Int
Forcier drops back and can't find anyone on his first read, at which point three Iowa DL come through the line, with Schilling, Omameh, and Huyge all picking up minuses. Forcier rolls out and throws a completely terrible INT right at an Iowa defender. (BR, 0, protection 0/3, Omameh, Schilling, Huyge.)
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-21, 4 min 3rd Q. That interception is a swing of 60 yards of field position relative to an average punt, or would be but for a personal foul on Iowa that brings it back to about the spot of the INT.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M15 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Slot 4-3 Penalty False start Schilling -5
Lewan returns. He does not cause the crowd to ask for his doom by false starting here.
M10 1 15 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Deep slant Hemingway 11
Again the slant opens up with an interior slant dragging a zone defender along. Pitch, catch, tackle. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M21 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Hitch Hemingway 9
Easy again; thrown with great timing as Hyde plays conservatively. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
M30 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Slant Smith 14
Virtual replay of the first TD with the three WR side drawing a lot of attention and Smith beating the LB over him on the slant despite the guy having inside leverage; he bites on the out step. Good route. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
M44 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Slot 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 4
Just five guys in the box as the trips drags two LBs to the outside. Michigan runs right at the five guys and can't get much because Klug beats a double from Khoury(-1) and Schilling, hopping inside and forcing Smith to bounce it behind. Khoury didn't get enough push on him to seal him before releasing. Smith does cut behind Klug as Schilling pancakes him but this robs Khoury of his angle on the LB in the box and forces Smith to the side with all the dudes on it.
RUN+: RUN-: Khoury
M48 2 6 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Improv Hitch Stonum 7
Forcier looks for Hemingway but decides that hitch at the sticks is covered, at which point Lewan(-1) gets run around by Clayborn; Forcier has to roll out. I'm going to toss in a bonus point for the protection because Forcier has all kinds of room to roll because Dorrestein walled off the playside DT and Webb and Smith took turns on the DE, giving Forcier a relaxing amount of time to survey. Stonum comes back to the ball and Forcier hits him with a hitch for the first down. (CA, 3, protection 2/3, Lewan -1)
O45 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Rollout stop and go Stonum Inc
Michigan rolls the pocket, then Forcier stops as he pulls up and tries to exploit the safety over-reacting to the roll. Stonum suckers the CB in and gets open deep; the half roll has gotten the safety out of position to defend this and Michigan has an opportunity. Throw is good but Stonum seems to lay out unnecessarily (trip?) and the pass clangs off his hands. Would have been incomplete anyway because of the dive. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
O45 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Slot 4-3 Pass Post Roundtree Inc
Max pro and a three-man route. Schilling(-1) gets beaten by Daniels and Forcier has a guy coming at him up the middle; must throw. He's got a window to hit Roundtree on a post, but it's a small one. He's close but it's in front of him. Good timing, tough throw to see and make, but did not quite execute. (IN, 0, protection 1/2, Schilling -1)
O45 3 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Improv Hitch Stokes 11
Forcier gets happy feet here and starts rolling around when protection is decent. His roll puts a stunting DT in his face but Stokes is breaking open on a hitch anyway, so Forcier chucks it accurately. Stokes spins through one tackle then drags Hunter two yards past the sticks. Nice play. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O34 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Deep slant Stonum 17
Iowa adjusting to this but it's not enough. Sash is sitting down in a robber zone and attempts to blow Stonum up, but the ball's already in and caught by the time he gets there; Stonum runs through that hit and almost breaks into the open field; corner drags him down by one foot. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
O17 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 6
Iowa with a late shift and stunt that gets Klug through Khoury(-1) and the other DT almost past Schilling(+1) before he reacts and knocks him out of the hole. Khoury then tackles Klug and gets away with it. Lewan is doing a good job on Clayborn but he manages to get a handful of jersey as Smith passes. This slows him and ends up being beneficial, allowing Dorrestein(+1) to get a bizarre but effective block on the MLB; Smith(+1) runs through the tackle and picks his way for decent yardage.
RUN+: Smith, Schilling, Dorrestein RUN-: Khoury
O11 2 4 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Fade Stonum Inc (Pen +6)
Slant fake to a fade from Stonum fools Hyde. Hyde bangs him and then continues impeding his progress with the ball in the air; the flag is obvious. Probably should have been a PI with the ball at the two but was called holding so it's half the distance. Not charted.
O5 1 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Hopkins 3
Hopkins displays surprising agility here. Interior double kicks out the DT but Iowa is slanting Binns inside of Dorrestein and there's not going to be a hole. Dorrestein starts driving Binns further inside, turning a nothing play into an opportunity and actually gets +1 here. Webb(+1) heads outside to block a scraping LB and Hopkins shows good agility for a beef machine to follow him, getting sliced down by that LB making a nice play. Yes, you can get +3 for a 3 yard run if it's from the five.
RUN+: Hopkins, Dorrestein, Webb RUN-:
O2 2 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Hopkins 2
Same play. This time Hopkins says eff it and just goes straight upfield; a gap-shooting Iowa LB has a narrow lane and a slight adjustment in Hopkins's path results in Hop running through an arm tackle. From there Omameh(+1) pancakes Ballard and Khoury(+1) improvises, pulling around the falling pair to pop Hunter; Hopkins is untouched into the endzone.
RUN+: Hopkins, Omameh, Khoury RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-28, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Deep hitch Stonum 18
Deep in the hole again; Iowa gets a delay on Stonum and the safety is coming over to club. Forcier pumps and then lays a ball in that takes Stonum off his feet just as the safety comes over to nail the guy; Stonum avoids the hit thanks to the throw and makes a moderately difficult catch. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
M43 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Slot 4-3 Pass Out Grady 8
Grady catches a quick out and then makes a linebacker charging out miss, turning five yards into eight. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O49 2 2 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 3
Another stunt from the DTs. Schilling(+1) seals off Klug, preventing him from getting into the backfield, and Lewan(+1) kicks out Clayborn; Smith does have to deal with a DT right in the hole but manages to fall forward for the first.
RUN+: Lewan, Schilling RUN-:
O46 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Fly Hemingway 46
Slot LB blitzes and it looks like Hyde massively busts a coverage on what should be three-deep. Forcier recognizes and tosses a soft floater that hits Hemingway in stride at the five for a touchdown. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-35, 10 min 4th Q. This color guy is outstanding, by the way.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M31 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Deep slant Stonum 13
Same story, no adjustment this time from Iowa: double slants and Forcier hits the deeper one when the inside zone is cleared. Disadvantage of running a 4-3 all the time. At this point it's RPS+1 time. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
M44 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Hitch Stonum 11
Hyde bails out deep and Stonum pulls up; Forcier nails him with excellent timing. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
O45 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Deep hitch Stonum Inc
Hyde makes a good play to force Stonum OOB; this is a quick throw that Forcier thinks he has but doesn't because of the chuck. Not sure what to chart this as. He had an out he could have gotten a few yards on, but this isn't a terrible read or throw even though it has no chance. I guess this is a very weak (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
O45 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Split 4-3 Pass Deep slant Stonum 11
Same thing, man: double slants. What does it mean? (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O34 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 3-4 Pass Fly Hemingway 31
Adjustment, as Iowa goes to a three-man line and rushes only those three. Michigan slides the protection, which is dumb because that leaves a DE one on one with Smith. Smith does what he can but that's only "delay the guy." Forcier pump fakes, then rolls away from the pressure a bit. He pulls up and launches a bomb to Hemingway on the other side of the field. Hemingway's beat his guy but the pass is well short; Hemingway adjusts to the ball much better than the corner and since it's short the safety is not a factor. Hemingway high-points the ball and brings the catch in. Uh... (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
O3 1 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 5-3 Run Zone read keeper Forcier 3
Forcier pulls. Not sure why since the backside DE is getting blocked but he does seem to have a lane up the middle. That lane closes as Clayborn comes off Lewan (a yard downfield so no minus); Webb(+1) is blocking a LB and has control of him, pushing him downfield as he tries to fight inside and banging him into a filling safety; Forcier(+1) bounces outside as Clayborn dives at his feet and lunges for the endzone. Not Denard, but shifty.
RUN+: Forcier, Webb RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-35, 6 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M37 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Tampa 3-4 Pass Fly Stonum Inc
This is very well covered by both the corner and the safety coming over and should not be thrown. Inaccurate anyway. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
M37 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Tampa 3-4 Pass Sack ? -9
Lewan(-2) smoked by Clayborn on a three man rush, forcing Forcier to scramble around. He slips during this yakety sax exhibition, but this was going to end badly either way. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2, Lewan -2)
M28 3 19 Shtogun trips 1 0 4 Tampa 3-4 Pass ? ? Int
Dorrestein(-2) smoked by Binns; Forcier steps up and throws to? no one. This is some kind of miscommunication or insanity, because only Iowa players can catch this ball. (BR, N/A, protection 0/2, Dorrestein -2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 28-38, 2 min 4th Q; EOG.

That was schizophrenic.

Yeah, no kidding. Michigan went from ground-based to lighting up the sky with Denard's exit—I didn't even register a Zone Read +/- for Tate. Iowa didn't cope well with the change, unless they did by picking Tate off twice. –7 turnover margin over two weeks makes evaluation difficult.

I heard on the talk radios that Tate should start now.

Riiiight. About that, first we're going to need—

Charts.

Yes, with a z:

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR ZR DSR
2009, All Of It 1 7 6(2) 3(1) 4 4 - - ? - 44%
UConn 2 15(6) - - 3 2 - - 2 - 68%
Notre Dame 3 25(8) 3(1) 4 1 - 4(1) 2 - - 71%
UMass 4 10(3) - 1 1 - 1 1 - - 73%
BGSU 1 4(1) - - - - - - - 1/1 N/A
Indiana 2 8(2) 1(1) 5(1) - - - - - 9/11 66%
Michigan State 4 14(3) 1 7(1) 1 - - 2 2 N/A 68%
Iowa 1 11(3) 2 3(1) 2 - 1 - - 3/4 64%

TATE FORCIER

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR ZR DSR
Iowa 3 14 1 2 4 - - 1 1 N/A 74%

Tate's number is justifiable since he averaged 9.2 YPA on 26 attempts; again, since the system doesn't weight things like throwing an awful interception more heavily the first Tate INT is not anything more than a single BR. (I'm not that concerned about the second INT. If you don't try something there you're facing fourth and nineteen and you're pretty much done anyway.)

Robinson, meanwhile, completed a lot of passes but didn't get many yards on them. He ended his day with a Scheelhaase-like 7.3 yards per completion. So the CAs there aren't inspiring, and neither is the DSR, a season low. For the second straight week Denard killed his own drives. On Michigan's third drive he threw an easy hitch well upfield and forced Hemingway to dive to catch it. That turned a sure first down into three yards. Lewan false-started and then he threw the ugly interception on the next play. On Michigan's final drive of the first half they were moving the ball, the drive stalled entirely because of Denard:

  • First down: long handoff to Stonum is thrown in the dirt and Michigan only gets two yards.
  • Second down: Webb is open on a hitch he can turn up for a first; Denard pumps for no reason and then throws it over Webb's head.
  • Third down: Denard misses a read and does not dump it down to Smith, then does not see Grady as he rolls, then scrambles for four yards.

He was off.

Tate start?

Come on now. I think Michigan could have put Denard back in the game but given his shaky performance throwing and the score they decided to roll with Forcier after he drove them down the field on the Smith fumble drive. In the press conference afterwards Rodriguez said he'd re-aggravated a shoulder injury he'd been dealing with. If that's healed and he returns to the accuracy levels he displayed in the first few weeks of the season he's the guy.

Michigan might be more confident they can turn to Forcier if Michigan's offense isn't doing anything, but that doesn't seem particularly likely.

How did the offensive line do?

For that we'll need another chart:

Offensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Huyge - - - Did not register a run plus minus, which is probably a win against Clayborn
Lewan 8 1 7 The biggest part of limiting Clayborn to one solo tackle and two assists.
Schilling 10.5 8 2.5 Won his battle but not by much.
Molk 3 - 3 Good start, then sideline.
Omameh 6.5 9.5 -3 Struggled in a fashion similar to his first start against a beefy UConn tackle. Probably still progress since the Iowa guy is probably better.
Khoury 10 7.5 2.5 Had his share of issues but was not a liability; backup situation this year so much better than the Moosman shuffle last year.
Dorrestein 6 2.5 3.5 Binns also had one solo.
Webb 5 2 3 Opportunities reduced.
Koger 1 1 0 Eh.
TOTAL 50 31.5 18.5 A solid day against a very tough line.
Backs
Player + - T Notes
Robinson 8 1 7 Could not find space often.
Gardner - - - DNP
Forcier 1 - 1 Shifty TD.
Shaw 1 - 1 Heal, MFer
Smith 3 1 2 Okay, but still averaged 3.9 YPC.
Cox - - - DNP
Toussaint - - - DNP
Hopkins 4 - 4 Effective in short yardage, getting more trust, led backs in YPC, good blocker.
McColgan 1 - 1 One play but made it count.
Jones - - - DNP
TOTAL 18 2 16 Did what they could, with Hopkins grinding in short yardage and .
Receivers
Player + - T Notes
Stonum - - - .
Odoms - - - --
TRobinson - - - --
Roundtree - - -  
Grady - - - --
Gallon 2 1 1 --
Hemingway - 1 -1 --
TOTAL 2 2 0 No screens, no long ones, no numbers.
Metrics

Also while we're talking line we should throw in the PROTECTION METRIC: 54/68, Lewan –3, Huyge –4, Schilling –2, Khoury –1, Omameh –1, Dorrestein –2, Hopkins –1. That's about 80%, which is good, and on the last drive-type substance when Iowa was all out of GAF and could rush like madmen Michigan was 1/5 with Dorrestein and Lewan picking up –2s.

This would be a good point to explain Taylor Lewan, the beginning and end of all things.

After the third Lewan penalty Michigan Stadium was ready to throttle the guy. (Good thing it's impossible to get guns in the stadium!) It would have taken most of the stadium to do so, but the "AWWWWWWWWW" coming from the stands suggested it was possible.

Huyge came in, and everyone thought that was a good idea to settle Lewan down. This provided a window in which the Huyge/Lewan battle—such as it is after Lewan cemented a place in the starting lineup—was once and forever resolved in the exact same way the Demens/Ezeh battle was: by some Iowa guy running over the backup. In Ezeh's case this was Iowa OL Julian Vandevelde. In Huyge's it was Adrian Clayborn.

Huyge wasn't terrible but when you play a third of a game and you don't get a single +/- on the run chart you're being avoided to some extent and just doing okay at when you're not. He's got a –4 in pass protection; Lewan has a –3 in twice the time. Lewan was +7 on the ground, tied with Denard for the best score.

He's good. The Clayborn line: one solo tackle, two assists, a half sack on the last desperate Michigan drive. Last year Clayborn had 70 tackles, 20 for loss, and 11.5 sacks. Against Penn State earlier this year Clayborn had ten tackles, three TFLs, and a sack. He's a holy lock first-rounder, and Taylor Lewan all but erased him.  Also, his second false start does not seem to exist. Presenting the first and only clip of a false start penalty in the history of football:

Pinky twitched or something.

That was a star-making performance. Lewan == Long has gone from optimistic ceiling to serious possibility.

And the rest of the guys?

I thought they were "dominant" in the game column at the beginning of the week; they were not. The rest of the line settled in an area around +3 each save Omameh, who again had difficulty with a big strong DT and finished in the negative.

Losing Molk was a chunk of that. While Khoury didn't seem out of place he's the backup for a reason and his lack of experience contributed to a couple of screwups; the occasional iffy snap that threw timing off was not included in the numbers. I don't think I saw him get a tough seal like this all day:

Even so a redshirt sophomore backup notching a positive number against Iowa's veteran, deep line is encouraging.

However, Michigan's inability to crease those guys consistently was key until Forcier came in. Iowa bent but did not break because their defensive line afforded them the ability to put a guy over Michigan's slot receiver to erase the bubble screen and keep two deep safeties; Iowa spent the bulk of the day with six guys in the box against Denard Robinson and did not get crushed. That's why Iowa's defense is so tough: they can do that when in theory it should get you crushed against up to seven blockers.

For a given definition of "crushed," anyway. Thanks to turnovers, bad field position, and the &#*$ing field goal kickers Michigan exited the first half with 223 yards and 7 points. That's bend but don't break. We've got break sooner or later. Also when the Tate Forcier Air Show started going off, it was not seriously bothered by pass rush until the last drive. That's an accomplishment.

Weekly plea for Hopkins.

Weekly plea for Hopkins, except he's clearly getting more run as the season progresses. I like his vision and surprising agility. A lot of beef machine types would not be able to make this cut:

And a lot of freshmen would not peel off to effectively block a guy who's just chucked away Schilling:

Rumors about fumbling in practice dog him—Rodriguez said Smith is "not a fumbler" after the game, thereby implying that some other guys were—and that's a good reason for his time to be limited. I'm anxious for those problems to recede.

His size makes him a far more effective blocker than anyone else Michigan has available. Unless Brandon Moore emerges (possible), I think we're going to see a lot more two tailback sets in 2011. Webb will be gone and Hopkins brings that kind of blocking.

Are you forgetting something?

Oh, right. Receivers:

  This Game   Totals
Player 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
Stonum 3 1/3 3/4 4/4 6 1/3 6/9 15/15
Odoms : ( - - - 1 1/1 3/4 11/11
Hemingway - 2/2 1/1 6/7 3 2/2 3/3 13/16
Jackson - - - - - - - -
Roundtree - - - 1/1 7 2/3 3/5 26/27
Grady - - - 1/1 4 1/1 2/2 7/8
T. Robinson - - - - - 0/1 - 2/3
Gallon - - - 2/2 1 - - 3/3
                 
Koger - - 1/1 2/2 - - 2/3 6/6
Webb - - - 1/1 - - - 2/2
                 
Smith - - - 2/2 1 - 0/1 8/8
Shaw - - - - 1 0/1 0/1 4/4
McColgan - - - - - - - 1/1
Hopkins - - - - - - - -
Toussaint - - - - - - - -

The receivers had a great day, with just one drop, that by Hemingway, and three very tough catches on poorly thrown balls. (Stonum's may not have actually been a catch but it was ruled one.) Hemingway bailed Forcier out on the late bomb and made up for his drop with some key conversions on tough balls. With the screen game limited and downfield runs almost nonexistent, all they had to do was catch and they did.

Also Rock Paper Scissors was 5 – 5 = 0, though it could have been slanted more heavily in Michigan's direction if I'd started dinging Iowa for giving up all those identical slants earlier.

Heroes?

Lewan turned Adrian Clayborn into just a guy. Stonum and Hemingway were major positives in the second-half comeback.

Goats?

Lewan helped kill two drives with actual penalties and may have killed a third if that false start wasn't phantom. And… yes… Denard's two-week streak of playing like a sophomore was extremely harmful.

What does it mean for Penn State and beyond?

Penn State's injury situation will have a lot to say about that, but Michigan has to get Robinson healthy and find enough of a tailback rushing game to force teams out of two-deep coverages. If anyone can do what Iowa did—which not only removed the bubble but removed all those games Michigan plays with it for good yardage—Michigan's base offense is going to have to slog downfield and will be vulnerable to the kinds of mistakes that have plagued them these last two weeks. (Aside for TOP junkies: Michigan won TOP against Iowa because their drives weren't two-play TDs. Was that helpful to either offense or defense? Not so much.)

I'm not sure whether this Denard shoulder injury is a good thing or a bad thing. Will it heal? Is it just an excuse? Is it more evidence that he will shatter into a thousand pieces? If his inaccuracy the last couple weeks was a temporary shoulder thing that will heal and he can get back to his earlier sharpshooting—even chucking short routes was a problem this week—it's good, I guess.

The other skill positions are getting better as the season progresses. The outside receivers are establishing themselves as good options and if Hopkins and Shaw can get an even rotation with Smith Michigan will have a variety of different looks they can go to depending on what's working well. Smith showed he's an asset as a quasi-slot in this game, as linebackers have difficulty covering him in man and zone opens up those double slants.

On the line, Lewan showed he should be able to neutralize any defensive end in the conference if he can just keep from going Yosemite Sam on the world and the rest of the line showed itself slightly inferior to Iowa's excellent DL. I'll take it.

  • 70 comments

Upon Further Review 2010: Offense vs Michigan State

By Brian — October 13th, 2010 at 3:48 PM — 84 comments
Filed under:
  • 2010 michigan state
  • denard robinson
  • stephen hopkins
  • upon further review
  • vincent smith

Formation notes: nothing new.

Substitution notes: Hemingway, Stonum, and Odoms split outside reps pretty evenly until Odoms was injured. Stokes got a few snaps after that but it was mostly the two juniors. Shaw played some at the start and then his PT trailed off, likely because of the injury. Hopkins got one drive as the primary back, seeing two carries; he also got some time as the second back in a two-back set but did not see the ball. OL was the usual.

Zone read metric note: MSU defended the zone read simply, by having the backside DE keep contain all the time. Denard never kept it on the read, so I got bored and stopped tracking it, though I did give him a couple minuses more from irritation than anything else.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside power zone Smith 7
MSU DE keeping contain on Robinson(ZR+1) so the handoff is made. Michigan is doubling both DTs, with Dorrestein(+1) and Omameh(+1) driving the backside guy way downfield and providing Smith a cutback lane once Jones attempts to fill the hole created between the two DTs.
RUN+: Dorrestein, Omameh, Smith(+0.5) RUN-:
M32 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout out Roundtree 8
MSU in zone so the CB has to drop back with the outside receiver and Roundtree is wide open; Robinson reads it and hits it for an easy first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M40 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 8
This opens up wide as Dorrestein(+1) authoritatively kicks out the DE and the DT to that side of the field slants inside Omameh, but Robinson(-1) doesn't read it developing and ends up running almost straight into that guy instead of cutting outside in to a big hole that Smith(+1) has cleared with a thumping block on Gordon. If Robinson just runs right up this gaping hole he's one on one with a safety for six. Instead he almost falls trying to avoid the DT, manages to keep his feet, gets a second-effort block from Koger(+1), and still picks up decent yardage. Still minus because he gave up a ton with the bad read.
RUN+: Dorrestein, Smith, Koger RUN-: Robinson
M48 2 2 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run Inside power zone Smith 8
MSU keeping two deep safeties and inviting M to run here, so they do. Same play as last time and Michigan knows by alignment that the DE has to keep contain so they run the exact same play as the first on the drive, blasting the backside DT back with a double from Dorrestein and Omameh and having Smith cut back behind it before the backside DE can crash down.
RUN+: Omameh, Dorrestein, Smith(+0.5) RUN-:
O44 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 7
This is one block from a touchdown and that block is not even attempted. So: frontside scoop from Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) gets Omameh(+1) out on the second level, where he obliterates Gordon because he just does that in space. Smith and Shaw hit it up, with Shaw taking out the safety and clearing Robinson for endzone takeoff... except for Jones tackling from behind. I think this is on Lewan(-1), who did not release downfield in an attempt to block Jones, instead peeling off to block the backside DE. Schilling(+1) sealed the backside DT, too, in excellent fashion. This is beautifully blocked all around but for the screwup on Jones.
RUN+: Schilling, Molk, Omameh(2), Dorrestein RUN-: Lewan
O37 2 3 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Shaw 21
MSU doing a somewhat strange slant/stunt that sees the backside DT shoot outside as both linebackers attack the interior; Michigan handles this confidently. Lewan(+1) reacts to the stunting DT, kicking him out; Schilling(+1) and Molk(+1) both get pieces of the linebackers, and Shaw(+2) makes a decisive cut behind Schilling to burst into the open field past the remaining linebackers, who cannot converge in time; a safety manages to make a lunging tackle to prevent six points.
RUN+: Lewan, Schilling, Molk, Shaw(2) RUN-:
O16 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Shaw 3
Unfortunate here as Molk controls and seals the playside DT; Lewan(-1) and Schilling are about to execute a perfect scoop on the backside DT and Jones when Lewan steps on Schilling, causing both to fall and forcing Shaw further inside, where Molk's guy does come off to tackle with help from the freed-up guys on the comical scoop.
RUN+: Molk RUN-: Lewan
O13 2 7 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside power zone Shaw 4
Less successful this time because Shaw can't cut back behind the double with Gordon waiting there. Shaw should just blast it upfield with the intent of meeting Jones four yards downfield, banking on his momentum plus Molk impacting him to have the pile fall forward for third and short. Instead he starts dancing a little bit and ends up getting hit by an unblocked Norman, who stops him for no YAC. Not a minus-worth offense but Hopkins probably gets six or so here.
RUN+: Omameh, Dorrestein RUN-: Shaw(-0.5)
O9 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Dig Roundtree Int
Yes, this is open with the DB trailing Roundtree by a good two steps. It's is thrown way behind him. Robinson pumps one way and then half-rolls left, pulling up to make the fatal throw. This has not been an issue so far this year and he's made a number of throws like this that have been right on the money. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-0, 11 min 1st Q. Hard to believe this run game slows down given what they did here.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M10 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB off tackle Robinson 5
Omameh pulls as Lewan and Schilling block down on one DT. Schilling(+1) seals and crumbles him. Lewan trips getting out to the second level; Smith(-1) runs by first Norman and then the safety, blocking no one. Omameh(+1) does pop Norman, giving Robinson a hole between him and a good kickout from Webb(+1); Lewan recovers enough to get some push on Jones, allowing a crease for decent yardage and avoiding the dread minus.
RUN+: Schilling, Webb, Omameh RUN-: Smith
M15 2 5 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 13
This is the run I think Shaw takes to the house. Lewan(+1) kicks out the DE. Molk(+1) doesn't seal the playside DT but does kick him down the line, which allows a crease since the backside DT is again getting doubled; Schilling(+2) hits the second level and clubs Gordon to the ground, erasing him and delaying Jones. Smith(+1) bursts through the hole to the outside and is a step from setting sail because of a crappy fill from the safety but gets taken down by a desperation shoestring tackle. A step. A half step, and this is 85 yards gone.
RUN+: Schilling(2), Lewan, Molk, Omameh, Dorrestein, Smith RUN-:
M28 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass PA short seam Roundtree 15
Zone fake gets a step forward from Jones and opens up the quick seam to Roundtree. Robinson hits him in he hands; Roundtree catches it and attempts to juke the safety who is the last guy between him and a long touchdown. He can't jump through the desperate arm tackle. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M43 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 1
Norman either blitzes or just recognizes this immediately and is heading into the backfield; Smith attempts to cut him but fails. Robinson should still be able to cut it directly upfield for good yardage since Omameh(+1) has sealed and crushed his DE and Molk(+1) has reached the playside DT, leaving space, two linebackers, and Dorrestein that could result in somewhere between three and eight yards. He doesn't read it, though and tries to head outside where Norman keeps contain, jumping on Robinson's back for little gain.
RUN+: Omameh, Molk RUN-: Robinson, Smith
M44 2 9 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Bubble screen Roundtree 6
Linebacker in space does a good job of getting into Grady and cutting off the outside but that just holds the gain down with Roundtree running directly upfield. (CA , 3, screen)
50 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout hitch Hemingway 15
Wide open just past the sticks as it appears MSU is in cover three and Robinson takes the easy pitch and catch for the first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Good job by Hemingway to get considerable YAC.
O35 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Shaw 2
At first glance this seemed like Shaw being hesitant but on review he got the blocking exactly right. Playside DT slants and isn't sealed; Shaw initially looks for the cutback but Lewan(-1) doesn't attempt to cut the backside guy for some reason and does not get an effective block, At this point that DT comes underneath Molk; Shaw decides to pop outside, where there is now a gap. Omameh and Webb are there in space against a linebacker and filling safety; both go for the linebacker, leaving the safety to tackle at the LOS. I'm not sure who this is on, but Webb was behind Omameh and did not process his intent so he gets the minus.
RUN+: Shaw, Dorrestein RUN-: Webb, Lewan
O33 2 8 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 5
Quick snap catches MSU off guard; Omameh(+1) gets under and controls his guy; Molk(+1) gets out on Jones. Schilling only did okay with his guy, who fights under him to tackle a few yards downfield. Pile falls forward.
RUN+: Omameh, Molk RUN-:
O28 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout fly Stonum Inc
MSU sends both LBs up the middle and slides one safety into a cover-one. Michigan runs an out coupled with a fly route on the rollout away from the pressure; Denard has the easy out for the first down but he also has the fly for a touchdown. He picks the more ambitious route and overthrows Stonum badly. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, RPS +2)
O28 4 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout scramble Robinson 4
MSU LB rolled up on the LOS blitzes; they expected this. Smith(+1) cuts the hell out of the guy and Roundtree is open for the first but Robinson does not throw it, spooked by the blitzer. He's on the corner, then, with Jones running after him. He just gets the corner by a step and scrambles for the first. Uh... (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2) Also Smith gets a run plus.
O24 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass PA out Roundtree 4
A variation on the lead draw fake to the seam where Roundtree breaks it outside and the outside receiver goes deep. Robinson hits Roundtree in stride but he bobbles the ball momentarily, coming to a stop. This allows the chasing safety to tackle after a minimal gain. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O20 2 6 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Short bubble Roundtree 3
PA fake to the bubble but this is the one that goes straight upfield, hopefully the slot LB gets aggressive to the outside. Here Norman just shoves Grady back and sets up inside, convincing Roundtree he should try to cut it outside. This would work if Grady had actually blocked Norman, which he is in position to do now that he's fought inside. He doesn't so Norman can run him down. (CA, 3, screen)
RUN+: RUN-: Grady
O17 3 3 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 0
Man, this is frustrating. Smith motions out again and absolutely no one goes with him. If Robinson just tosses him the ball this is possibly six, but that's not the call. Anyway: MSU shoots linebackers into the intended gap. Molk(+1) seals his guy; Omameh(+1) reads and reacts to the slant well enough. Webb kicks out a corner decently; Dorrestein(-2) runs right by two linebackers on an epic whiff, giving those two guys room to tackle at the LOS when a block is probably a first down and maybe lots more.
RUN+: Omameh, Molk RUN-: Dorrestein(2)
Drive Notes: FG(34), 3-0, 1 min 1st Q. Gahhhh. About five different plays on this drive could have been TDs if one more player had executed or Vincent Smith was fast. Getting three points out of these first two drives was doom.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O13 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 3
Robinson should pull with Koger coming out on the backside DE and the WLB sucking inside (ZR -1). Backside DT holds up much better this time against the double (Dorrestein -0.5, Omameh -0.5). Schilling and Molk(+1 each) seal the playside DT and make a mess that Jones can't get through so there's a crease; Omameh whiffs on the second level block, too, so that LB who should be containing Denard tackles. Michigan has not taken advantage of MSU's predictable scheme on the backside.
RUN+: Molk, Schilling RUN-: Robinson, Omameh, Dorrestein(-0.5)
O16 2 7 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass PA TE flat Koger 6
Instead of blocking the DE like Michigan usually does this time Koger releases into the flat. Open, and Robinson hits him. Koger turns up for decent yardage as he breaks a tackle and is pushed OOB. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
O22 3 1 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 0
MSU walks a safety up. MSU slants past blockers, jamming up the play on the frontside. Omameh(-1) did not read the slant and let the playside DT in without helping Molk. Robinson(-1) is staring down a safety charging at him at a poor angle and should pull the ball but does not (ZR-1). Smith(-1) has no choice but to run to the backside of the play where the guy who's been contain previously is now just flowing down the line looking for him; he hits Norman with a head of steam and goes straight down because he's 160 pounds. This cries out for Hopkins, and this failure is a hidden reason Michigan lost. (RPS -2)
RUN+: RUN-: Robinson, Smith, Omameh
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-0, 12 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M40 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB off tackle Robinson 6
Webb(+1) blocks down and eliminates the playside DE. Schilling is pulling around but gets shoved back by the DT before Lewan can get a hat on him, which isn't anyone's fault. It does knock him off course and prevent him from blocking anyone, though. Hopkins(+1) is in and does a good job kicking out Norman, leaving Robinson in space with Jones; he makes him miss. Molk(+1) got a great cut on the WLB. Way on the backside Dorrestein(-1) does not cut or control the backside DE, who ends up tackling just as Robinson's about to head downfield. This was picture-paged.
RUN+: Webb, Molk, Robinson(2), Hopkins RUN-: Dorrestein
M46 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass PA out Roundtree 12
Same play as earlier, with the QB lead draw fake leading to the out. This time Roundtree does not bobble it and cuts right upfield for good yardage. Robinson got clocked on the throw as MSU slanted under Omameh(-1) and Molk, who was headed to the second level. Hopkins picked one off; the other nailed Robinson. (CA+, 3, protection 0/1, Omameh)
O42 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Belly Hopkins 7
This is our old friend the belly, which I used to call the zone veer and Brandon Minor made a living on. Schilling(+1) blocks down on the backside DT, kicking him down the line. Webb(+1) kicks out the contain guy on the LOS, who is crashing, and Lewan(+1) releases into the MLB. Hopkins slams it up, picking up two or three YAC.
O35 2 3 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass PA deep seam Roundtree Inc
Inside zone fake sucks up the safety and man free turns into cover zero. Grady runs a slant that sucks one guy up, Roundtree runs past a safety who's late reacting, and Denard throws before the contain guy can get to him. Throw hits Roundtree in the hands 25 yards downfield and will be an easy touchdown... dropped. (DO, 3, protection N/A, RPS +3)
O35 3 3 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 6
Pump fake and then go, with Robinson swiftly cutting outside when the hole opens up between Omameh(+1), who got a good block on the DT, and Dorrestein. Once in space the first down is academic.
RUN+: Robinson, Omameh RUN-:
O29 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Hopkins 6
I may be splitting hairs here but I think this is a different play since the backside tackle, Dorrestein, does not release downfield and instead tries to block the DE. He doesn't get sealed so Hopkins cuts behind the two guys and runs directly into an unblocked LB. Dorrestein releasing == belly. Doubling a DT == inside zone. I still think Denard should be pulling more often but will not ding him this time.
RUN+: Webb, Dorrestein RUN-:
O23 2 4 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass PA slant Grady 11
State blitzes the LBs and gets pressure. Schilling(-1) let his guy through; another guy comes through unblocked because of the blitz. Hopkins can't change direction fast enough after the fake to get a piece of him. Not his fault. With guys bearing down Robinson has to get rid of it immediately and nails Grady with a bullet he snags and takes for a first down. Excellent play all around. (DO, 2, protection 0/2, Schilling -1, team -1)
O12 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 0
Well defended by State but I think someone busted an assignment because M runs by the backside DE *and* the backside DT, so when Robinson cuts back that DT is right there to tackle. This is almost always the backside tackle's job so -1 Dorrestein. On the frontside, Lewan(-1) may be trying to turn his guy inside but lets him too far in and the DE shoots into Robinson's path, forcing the cutback that the DT swallows.
RUN+: RUN-: Dorrestein, Lewan
O12 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass TE counter flare Webb 12
New. Michigan does the half-roll away from the TE side; Webb sets up to block the blitzing LB to that side, then releases into the flat. Stonum has taken the corner to that side away from the play so Webb is wide open and can stroll into the endzone. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-7, 8 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M15 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 1
MSU aggressively getting upfield here and Molk(-2) gets beat by the NT as Lewan barely gets a cut on the backside DT. Molk ends up three yards in the backfield and his man is still not sealed out of the hole. Smith tries to run up in the C-T gap anyway and gets dragged down by the guy who beat Molk; Dorrestein(-1) also couldn't kick out the DE and he helps tackle.
RUN+: RUN-: Molk(2), Dorrestein
M16 2 9 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Deep hitch Stonum Inc
M runs the same route combination we've seen work for them before in the ND game where they have an out and a hitch behind it. MSU shows two deep before the snap but is actually running three-deep so when the corner on the outside comes up on the out and Denard goes to the deeper hitch there's a safety coming over to defend it. The throw is good but the safety arrives with Stonum, breaking up the pass. (BR, 0, protection 2/2, RPS -1) Maybe the BR is harsh because his other options were pretty well covered hitches and maybe this had a chance; still threw it into coverage.
M16 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Scramble Robinson 1
MSU sends a delayed blitzer that Michigan does not pick up; Schilling ends up blocking air as this guy has a free run. Robinson is looking at covered guys and has to scramble once that blitzer gets in. He's about to break free in some space when a DL grabs him from behind. He runs through the tackle but trips shortly after. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, team)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-14, 3 min 2nd Q. I guess I will chart the last couple plays of the half, though they're weird.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 3-3-5 nickel Run QB draw Robinson 6
Opens up as MSU is expecting pass; Jones avoids a cut from Roundtree(-1) so Robinson has to set up a juke that allows the NT to come from behind and tackle.
RUN+: RUN-: Roundtree
M26 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Pass Fly Odoms 54
Robinson looks one way then changes his target to the other side of the field and launches one to Odoms, who's got a couple steps on the defensive back. The pass is short but it's also in the air for 45 yards so it's hard to criticize; Odoms pulls up and makes a leaping grab with the DB's hand in his face, bringing it down. He's chopped down by the safety. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(42, blocked), 17-10, EOH. Michigan let six seconds run off the clock before calling TO on the first play; could have had another play here.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M30 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 2
Contain; ZR+1. Smith(-1) misses his cut since the playside DT has fought through the attempted scoop attempt from Molk(-1) and Omameh(-1), who also missed a linebacker. Lewan(+1) had cut the backside DT and with Schilling shoving Jones a hard cut behind Molk finds daylight.
RUN+: Lewan RUN-: Molk, Omameh, Smith
M32 2 8 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 12
Omameh(+1) dominates the playside DT with a single block and Dorrestein(+1) kicks out the DE, leaving a big gap. Smith(+1) walls off Gordon and Robinson is through the gap; he's taken down from behind by a guy Shaw only got a weak shove on.
RUN+: Omameh, Dorrestein, Smith, Robinson RUN-:
M44 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout fly Hemingway 27
Robinson has to pull up with a DE getting out to contain; Michigan runs the out-fly combo and this time the safety is late getting over, allowing Hemingway the opportunity to make a leaping catch on a well-timed dart. (DO, 3, protection 1/1)
O29 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 16
Playside DE slants inside Lewan(-1), getting into the backfield; Hopkins(+1) has to use himself to get rid of the guy, which he does thumpingly. Robinson's now on the edge but Shaw is headed too far outside to deal with Gordon; Robinson WOOPs him, and then WOOPs a safety and Jones back to the outside, running through a desperate lunging tackle. The last DB chops him down as he nears the ten.
RUN+: Robinson(3), Hopkins RUN-: Lewan
O13 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run Broken play Robinson 1
Shaw does not come to the mesh point so Robinson takes off and gets what he can, which isn't much. Should have thrown the bubble but it's a broken play so whatever.
O12 2 9 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout hitch Odoms Inc
Michigan rolls away from blitzing linebackers and Odoms sits down in front of the zone on the interior; Robinson sees him and pulls up to zip it in for first and goal at the two… turfed. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O12 3 9 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Slant Hemingway Int
Robinson reads the coverage and does have window for Hemingway but again just throws it two steps behind his receiver, getting it picked off. (IN, 0, protection 0/2, Molk -2 for a chop block)
Drive Notes: Interception, 10-24, 10 min 3rd Q. And boom does not go the dynamite.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M36 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass PA slant Grady Inc
MSU has this well covered with Norman all over Grady's back. There is an opportunity to hit Grady for maybe five but Robinson throws it high. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M36 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Flare Shaw 7
Robinson is about to throw a slant to Odoms that MSU has covered as Michigan runs a snag concept but stops himself and then hits the wide open flare route. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M43 3 3 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson -3
MSU blitzing and slanting the DT M is running at, causing Molk(-1) and Schilling(-1) to end up blocking no one as three guys come right up the middle. Robinson can avoid one, but not two. (RPS -2)
RUN+: RUN-: Molk, Schilling
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-31, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O41 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Bubble screen Smith 9
Bubble screens on both sides with no linebacker covering Smith in the slot; MSU must be concerned with the draw. Smith has an easy nine yards. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1)
O32 2 1 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Bubble screen Smith 4
Blitz up the guy from MSU puts them in man so the safety is coming up hard and holds this identical play down. (CA, 3, screen)
O28 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Bubble screen Roundtree Inc
Too far in front of Roundtree. (IN, 0, screen)
O28 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout hitch Hemingway Inc
Hole in the zone has Hemingway catching the ball six yards downfield and probably picking up 3-4 YAC, except he drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O28 3 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Hitch Stonum Inc
Tight window but Robinson throws it right on time, almost before Stonum turns around. This ball is a little in front of him but I'm not sure if that's on him or Stonum's route. Could be either. (MA, 2, protection 1/1) On replay, Stonum's pulling up a yard short of the ball and could easily be in the right spot. I think this is on the WR.
O28 4 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Deep hitch Grady 17
Four verts concept on which Grady sits down right behind the linebackers and Robinson throws a rope right in front of the safety. Grady gets nailed but hangs on. Good execution all around. Free blitzer meant Robinson had to get rid of it, too. (DO, 1, protection 1/2, team -1)
O11 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 7
Schilling and Omameh(+1 each) kick out the DTs, who appear to be thinking pass, and Molk(+1) gets a good second level block on Jones; Robinson hits it up and the safeties converge.
RUN+: Molk, Omameh, Schilling RUN-:
O4 2 3 Shotgun trips TE 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB power off tackle Robinson 4
Lewan and Schilling block down on the playside DT; Omameh pulls around and Hopkins is the other lead blocker. Webb kicks out the DE; everyone gets their block, and it's a touchdown.
RUN+: Webb, Hopkins, Omameh RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-31, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 3
An MSU stunt gets the DEs in and forces Robinson outside, where the delay takes him away from the downfield block of Molk and allows one of those DEs to tackle from behind. (RPS -1)
M23 2 7 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Scramble Robinson 8
MSU has a safety on the corner route and drops the corner back when Gordon gets over to cover the hitch so Robinson, who did get the edge thanks to some dogged blocking from Shaw, says screw it and takes off. (SCR, N/A, protection 1/1)
RUN+: Robinson, Shaw RUN-:
M31 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Post Grady Int
Depressingly similar to the Iowa INT last year, as a the corner covering Stonum's hitch at the sticks bails out to cover the deep post well before Robinson throws the ball. If Robinson reads this the throw to Stonum is a first down and lots of YAC, but instead he throws it deep. Grady has a step, two steps, on a safety who bit up on a hitch, but the ball is way too far outside and intercepted by the sinking corner. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) If this is thrown five yards further inside Grady has a great shot at a touchdown.
Drive Notes: Interception, 17-31, 12 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M29 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Sack ? -10
MSU sends a DT between the tackle and guard, occupying Dorrestein on a possible stunt, but just sends the DE outside anyway. Dorrestein pops out on him; Omameh ends up blocking air as the DT comes up the middle. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Omameh -2)
M19 2 20 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Rollout bomb Roundtree Inc
Schiling(-2) pwned by Worthy and Robinson has to scramble out. He gets on the corner as a linebacker comes up and ends up chucking a back-foot punt that is actually to Roundtree, who's got a step on the last MSU defender. Ball hangs up but is fairly accurate. It's a little short but Roundtree's got a shot at it. He leaps and it clangs off his hands. (CA, 2, protection 0/2, Schilling -2)
M19 3 20 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Flare screen Shaw 11
MSU playing off so there's a lot of room once Roundtree(+1) shoves his block to the ground. (CA, 3, screen)
RUN+: Roundtree RUN-:
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-34, 6 min 4th Q. Lame.

We met a real defense and scored 17 points and our defense is tuberculosis in a uniform we're going to DIEEEEEE…

Aw, come on, you know Michigan left a ton of points on the field.

WE'RE GOING TO DIEEEEEEEEEE

It's not that bad, look at the—

CHAAAAAAART.

Chart. Hennechart:

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR ZR DSR
2009, All Of It 1 7 6(2) 3(1) 4 4 - - ? - 44%
UConn 2 15(6) - - 3 2 - - 2 - 68%
Notre Dame 3 25(8) 3(1) 4 1 - 4(1) 2 - - 71%
UMass 4 10(3) - 1 1 - 1 1 - - 73%
BGSU 1 4(1) - - - - - - - 1/1 N/A
Indiana 2 8(2) 1(1) 5(1) - - - - - 9/11 66%
Michigan State 4 14(3) 1 7(1) 1 - - 2 2 N/A 68%

That success rate has to be wrong.

It's not wrong, it just doesn't weight passes based on how damaging the particular inaccurate ball is. Against MSU, Denard threw the following balls not to his receiver:

  • Endzone interception #1 on route Roundtree had two steps on. [Zero points]
  • Wide open Stonum on fly route about 20 yards downfield that's airmailed. [Three points]
  • Hitch to Odoms on second and nine from the 11 that would have been first and goal. [Zero points]
  • Endzone interception #2 on slant that Hemingway was open on. [Zero points]
  • Covered slant zinged over Grady [Zero points]
  • Bubble too far in front of Roundtree. [Seven points]
  • Other interception on route where Grady had plenty of room to the inside of the field but the ball was way, way too far outside, allowing sinking corner to react and intercept. [Zero points]

How big of a deal is it to throw a bubble screen a step in front of a receiver? One unit of big deal. How big of a deal is it to throw a makeable 20 yard touchdown over someone's head on third and three? Two, three units of big deal. How big of a deal is it to throw endzone interceptions when you have open receivers? Five units of big deal.

The reason the rate is the rate is because a bad pass is a bad pass; in reviewing a performance we're trying to strip out the emotion from the game and use it as a predictive measure. If Robinson had thrown those balls out of the endzone instead of behind the receivers Michigan would have had maybe seven more points but the QB play would have been equivalent.

So Robinson has been exposed?

Not enough data so you make big. The terrible horrible no good very bad off day against Michigan State is a data point, but so is this:

And this:

The numbers above speak for themselves—Robinson's overall accuracy was much better than he showed against Michigan State.

Did Michigan State have anything to do with this, then?

Not really. Robinson had open receivers on all of those throws except the Grady slant; that slant was the only throw on which he was pressured, as well.

He just missed.

So he's inaccurate?

Maybe? I pulled those clips above because that's what it's been like when Robinson throws those sorts of passes this year. Against Notre Dame his four downfield INs were:

  • an overthrown bomb on third and long,
  • a turfed hitch identical to the one he left short of Odoms Saturday,
  • a seam to Roundtree he threw accurately but on a line, allowing T'eo to knock it down, and
  • a seam on the next play that was well high as he tried to compensate.

Against Indiana it was three overthrown bombs and another hitch in the dirt. That and one overthrown out to Terrance Robinson against UMass were the sum total of his bad passes to date. He hadn't thrown many of the above zingers but he'd had at least a dozen, maybe two. The passes well behind players were unprecedented.

Robinson's early enough in his career that randomness plays a major factor in how his accuracy is perceived. The Michigan State game knocks expectations down several notches but they are still high; I'm willing to wager small amounts of money or pocket lint that MSU is Robinson's worst performance of the year.

Meanwhile, other--

CHARTDIEEEEEE

--chart. Receivers:

  This Game   Totals
Player 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
Stonum 2 - 0/1 - 3 - 3/5 11/11
Odoms 1 1/1 - - 1 1/1 3/4 11/11
Hemingway 1 - - 3/4 3 - 2/2 7/9
Jackson - - - - - - - -
Roundtree 2 - 0/1 5/6 7 2/3 3/5 25/26
Grady 1 1/1 1/1 - 4 1/1 2/2 6/7
T. Robinson - - - - - 0/1 - 2/3
Gallon - - - - 1 - - 1/1
                 
Koger - - - 1/1 - - 1/2 4/4
Webb - - - 1/1 - - - 1/1
                 
Smith - - - 2/2 1 - 0/1 6/6
Shaw - - - 1/1 1 0/1 0/1 4/4
McColgan - - - - - - - 1/1
Hopkins - - - - - - - -
Toussaint - - - - - - - -

Robinson's disappointing day statistically was compounded by some errors by his receivers. Roundtree dropped a 30-yard touchdown, Hemingway an 8-ish yard hitch; Stonum and Roundtree did not come up with a couple coulda-had-its, one a long bomb on Michigan's last drive. He did get some help from Odoms and Roundtree, who both reeled in big gains in tough situations.

Protection metric: PROTECTION METRIC: 30/41, Omameh –3, Schilling –3, Molk –2, Team –3.

This number is much larger than most metrics to date, and it's not so good. 75% is pretty bleah, though before the final drive when Michigan was forced to pass it was 30/37, which is pretty decent. The suggestion is that Michigan's pass blocking is greatly aided by Denard's run threat and when that goes away so does a chunk of the assumed competence in the line.

And, finally, a running chart that is a step back but not off a cliff or anything:

Offensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Huyge - - - DNP
Lewan 4 5 -1 Had some trouble.
Schilling 8 1 7 Excellent day.
Molk 9 4 5 Had a little trouble on stretches in the second half.
Omameh 12 3 9 The usual.
Barnum - - - DNP
Dorrestein 6 5.5 0.5 Fights guys to stalemates; could be vulnerable against Iowa.
Webb 6 1 5 The secret weapon.
Koger - 1 -1 Didn't play much.
TOTAL 45 20.5 23.5 Good, not great.
Backs
Player + - T Notes
Robinson 8 4 4 Also left a lot of yards on the field on rushing plays.
Gardner - - - DNP
Forcier - - - DNP
Shaw 4 0.5 3.5 Injury limited, still seems like clearly the #1.
Smith 3.5 5.5 -2 Needs to make that 13-yarder 85.
Cox - - - DNP
Toussaint - - - DNP
Hopkins 3 - 3 Lot of beef back there to pair with Robinson.
McColgan - - - DNP
Jones - - - DNP
TOTAL 18.5 10 8 Line gave them some opportunities to bust big ones but they did not take them.
Receivers
Player + - T Notes
Stonum - - - .
Odoms - - - --
TRobinson - - - --
Roundtree 1 - -  
Grady - - - --
Gallon - - - --
Hemingway 1 - 1 --
TOTAL 1 - 1 Limited long runs so not really involved.
Metrics

This seems about right to me since Michigan averaged 5.2 YPC. In any other year people would be delirious that Michigan managed that against a non-pushover Big Ten team.

Why do you hate Vincent Smith? He's adorable and tough.

I don't hate Vincent Smith. It's weird being critical of running backs because at most other positions you can make obviously bad plays, like missing a block or a tackle or a throw. Other than fumbling and the occasional obvious missed cut, mistakes running the ball are rarely obvious. It's just that some guys are just guys. Barking Carnival described Texas's running backs as a "bunch of JAGs" a couple weeks back, and that popped into my head as the perfect way to describe a meh tailback. Smith is just a guy*. I can't think of a better example than this:

Carlos Brown? Touchdown. Shaw? Touchdown. Baker or Bell? Touchdown, possible touchdown. Minor? Good chance to rage through the tackle and possible touchdown.

Meanwhile, there was that third and one on which MSU did a decent job of stacking it up but Michigan had a running back hit at the LOS by a single linebacker and got zero yards. He doesn't fumble, he knows the plays, he's healthy… I can see why Michigan is using him. I just hope that they can get Shaw to 100% and get Hopkins on the field at least as much as Smith as the season goes on.

*(At least right now. I can't shake the impression I had from the tail end of last year when he seemed really quick and exciting. He could get a lot better next year as he gets back to 100%.)

Denard did not get a billion yards. I am confused. Why?

Michigan ran a lot of zone read and they defended it simply by having the DE keep contain. This was a major reason Michigan's early drives went right down the field:

Without a scrape exchange or something similar that gap is always going to be open, especially when you can get a double team on that tackle. Michigan was content to do that for a while and Denard was content to hand off; Michigan State was content to let Smith and Shaw run, especially later when Shaw exited.

I still don't like this. Michigan could have played a ton of games with the backside end since they knew how MSU wanted to defend the read. Here is the complaint about midline: where is midline? That DE is begging to get kicked out and MSU's DT's got crazy aggressive in response to the constant double teaming. Letting one of those guys go would have seen Robinson get an opportunity in lots of space. Want midline.

You want more things?

In general I'm dissatisfied with what seems like a tendency to have this cool new package in the first half that works and then when the defense adjusts Michigan doesn't have the next thing. In the second half Michigan tried some more of the double-the-DT thing on short yardage and got it blown up when MSU blitzed into it. They needed to have a different thing to go to in the second half before the defense even tried anything.

I should say that the RPS was 9-6 = +3, which is good, but Michigan spurned most of those positive chances with drops and misthrown balls. They ran out to a big lead in that category and then gave it back as the game progressed. Part of that was being so far behind and getting out of their gameplan, I guess, but that didn't really happen until late.

I do like that Michigan anticipated that MSU would have some answers for things they'd already run and changed it up. The PA fake where Denard fakes the iso and they throw a slant was changed into an out/fly combination that didn't have the big play potential but I assume the safeties for MSU were ready to deal with that.

Heroes?

The interior OL controlled the MSU DL for the most part, and Webb had a great day blocking.

Goats?

Denard, first and foremost and close to only.

What does it mean for Iowa and beyond?

I'm not that depressed; the overall impression I got from the game was that Michigan's offense set them up for many big plays and because of poor execution—unusually poor execution, unlike the defense—by one guy here, one guy there, and a lot of Robinson they couldn't take advantage. If Robinson throws those balls to his open receivers in the endzone Michigan is tied at 31 at the start of the fourth quarter and the game has an entirely different complexion. They didn't, but that doesn't mean they're headed to the bottom of the Big Ten scoring standings. I'm still confident this is going to be the best Michigan offense in a long time.

We'll see about Denard. I think he'll bounce back but there's a chance it was the early bits that were false. The preponderance of the evidence is still in favor of accuracy, however.

The interior OL seems like it's got a fighting chance against the Iowa DL. They stumbled a little bit in the second half but did not have much opportunity as Michigan got down and the clock got short. If Iowa is going to run the same vanilla scheme MSU did that could allow Michigan to option off Clayborn and maintain their run game. They had a good day in Iowa City last year and Michigan has upgraded probably a little bit more than Iowa did with returning starters and new players.

  • 84 comments

Picture Pages: Backside DE Pursuit

By Brian — October 12th, 2010 at 12:50 PM — 38 comments
Filed under:
  • 2010 michigan state
  • david molk
  • denard robinson
  • down g
  • martell webb
  • perry dorrestein
  • power off tackle
  • stephen hopkins
  • steve schilling

Over the past five years I've watched a lot of football plays over and over until I understood them (or threw my hands up and asked the peanut gallery). The play I've seen more than any other in that time is the zone stretch. DeBord ran almost literally nothing else, and it was the most common play in the RR offense's first two years. Though Michigan's gone away from it with Denard, boy do I have the zone stretch down.

This is not a zone stretch. It's a power off tackle QB run where the nearside guard pulls (AKA "down g") and the guys on the outside block down. But it does demonstrate a key element of defending outside runs of any variety where cutbacks are possibly lethal.

It's the first play of Michigan's fourth drive of the day. MSU has just scored a 61-yard touchdown on a zone stretch cutback that we'll address later. It's first and ten; Michigan comes out in a three-wide package with Stephen Hopkins as the back. The first shot is a little early; Robinson drops back so Hopkins is at stretch depth.

The key guy here is somewhat unusual given the play: the backside DE. He's to the top of the screen: backside-flow-1

On the snap Michigan sends Robinson to the strong side of the formation:

backside-flow-2

Key bits in the frame above: Webb and Lewan are blocking down on the playside DE and DT as Schilling pulls around. Hopkins is sprinting out as a lead blocker, leaving Schilling and Hopkins taking on the two playside LBs; Molk has to cut the WLB.

In the next frame Molk has gotten out on the WLB. Schilling has gotten shoved back by that playside DT, which we can't see yet but will in the next frame. The backside DE has read the direction of the play and is in the process of releasing from Dorrestein:

backside-flow-3

Molk chops the WLB. He's dead. Webb has crushed the playside DE inside. There's major gap. Problem: Robinson has basically caught Schilling already because of the shove from the DT:

backside-flow-4

…he's now a yard in front of Denard and not moving forward. This is the equivalent of being behind Denard.

Meanwhile, the backside DE has totally disengaged from Dorrestein by giving ground and is taking a pursuit angle slightly downfield. Dorrestein is caught up in the wash closer to the LOS, demonstrating why you give ground in pursuit. You can watch him get slightly further and further from the LOS as he flows down the line:

backside-flow-5

In the next frame Hopkins gets a good block on the OLB. Schilling is now a yard behind Robinson and useless, leaving a one-on-one matchup between Denard and Greg Jones:

backside-flow-6

WOOP!

backside-flow-7

Robinson jukes past the over-pursuing Jones. He has room to do this because the playside DT is off the screen upfield and the playside DE is still trying to get off Webb's excellent block. He is one step from cutting back outside and turning on the afterburners when…

backside-flow-8

The backside defensive end, now four yards off the LOS and running his ass off, makes a desperation lunge. Robinson trips and the gain is held down to seven yards.

[No video yet since I'm still converting.]

Object lessons:

  • Denard: pretty good at running. The vaunted Jones looked like Ezeh here.
  • Backside DE pursuit is important. It goes like this: diagnose run play headed away from you. Get playside of your blocker by releasing from him and flowing down the line of scrimmage at an angle that takes you about three yards downfield by the time you hit the point of attack. Hope someone funnels the ballcarrier to you and tackle.

    Without the backside DE doing this correctly, Denard has 15, 20, maybe 60 yards.

  • Why no cut from Dorrestein? In frames two and three it seems obvious that Dorrestein can get an easy cut block on the DE, eliminating him. Instead he tries to flow down the line with him, gets caught up in the wash, and loses the guy who eventually makes the tackle. I'm sure he's coached to do this, but I can't understand why the play doesn't call for an easy cut block on this guy. Even one step of delay and Robinson is off.
  • Webb is a major component of the run game. He's got a fairly easy block since MSU is intent on the inside zone and the belly and whatnot so the backside guys are attempting to slant into the gaps inside of the blockers. Even so he drives the DE way, way inside and holds that block long enough for Robinson to make up for the shove that eliminated Schilling from the play.
  • This play is a counter to the inside zone. I stole my thunder on this one in the last bullet but to reiterate: Michigan was running a ton of inside zone on which the backside DE was contain and the backside DT was blasted off the ball by double teams. MSU made an adjustment on Michigan's previous drive—the three and out on which Smith was stuffed on an inside zone on third and one—and Michigan comes out on their next play with this. They get the playside linemen blocked way out of the play and the WLB cut; they should have two lead blockers for Robinson against two guys but for the shove on Schilling. Even though they lose one of the lead blockers the linemen have been bludgeoned out of the play to the extent that Robinson can juke Jones to the inside and still pick up a good gain.
  • Hopkins pops guys. This is not a surprise since he's 230 pounds of near-fullback, but Stephen Hopkins has displayed superior blocking ability in his brief cameos. He gets in people and shoves them back; Smith and to a lesser extent Shaw get in the way of people and hope it's enough. I want more Hopkins. He makes Denard better and provides a thunderous counter to all that dilithium.
  • This was the story of the first half. This is one of maybe a dozen plays on which one player fails to execute and costs Michigan a touchdown. Here it was Dorrestein and somewhat Schilling; Robinson made up for one of them but not the other. Other times it was Lewan or Robinson or Roundtree or Grady. I think this was just one of those days. So far I've seen mostly domination from the offensive line. I wonder what changes in a rougher second half.
  • 38 comments

Preview 2010: Tailbacks

By Brian — September 2nd, 2010 at 11:46 AM — 32 comments
Filed under:
  • fitzgerald toussaint
  • michael shaw
  • mike cox
  • preview 2010
  • running backs
  • stephen hopkins
  • teric jones
  • vincent smith

Previously: The story, the secondary, the linebackers, the defensive line, the offensive line, special teams, and the conference.

Rating: 4 of 5.

RB Yr. FB Yr.
Vincent Smith So. John McColgan So.*
Mike Shaw Jr. Anonymous Walk-on ----
Mike Cox So.* -- ----
Stephen Hopkins Fr. -- ----
Fitzgerald Toussaint Fr.* --  
 
No one actually thinks the above depth chart means anything. With zero established performers, a wide array of talents, and an offense that can use two or three backs at a time even when one is Steve Slaton, Michigan figures to deploy four or even all five of scholarship tailbacks above in some capacity. You could make a reasonable argument that any of the five will end the year with the most carries. Rodriguez says "three or four" will play in the opener, and if (when) injury or whatever strikes some member of that  group down you'll see the fifth guy hit the field.
 
It may seem generous to hand this position a 4 when no one in contention for the job has established themselves a star and only Shaw came to Michigan with significant recruiting hype (the only other four star issued to the group is the one Rivals, and only Rivals, gave Toussaint), but the sheer number of options and the diversity they bring means the overall production from this group should be more than acceptable.

The Technical Starter
 Michigan running back Vincent Smith (2) plays against Wisconsin in Madison, WI on Saturday, November 14, 2009. (Zachary Meisner/Daily)

…is probably Vincent Smith, who seems completely healthy despite tearing his ACL in the Ohio State game in November. During the fall scrimmage he was the guy who started out with the #1 offensive line and Denard Robinson, and in a derby this confused that's as good of an indication as any that he's the man with a slight edge.

We also have the tail end of last year as corroboration. When Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor came down with their entirely predictable injury extravaganzas, it was Smith, not Shaw or Cox, who got the bulk of the work. By the end of the year I was pretty enthused about the little guy. Baby Seal U impressions:

Vincent Smith showed top-end shiftiness and looks like he'll be a solid back. I compared him to Mike Hart on Monday, and think that remains a pretty good comparison. He's also got a little Noel Devine in him; the way he darts through crevices and effortlessly shifts around traffic is reminiscent of the WVU star. He appears to lack Devine's fifth—or eighth—gear, but he's delivered more pop to defenders in one game than Devine has in three years. He'll be something less than a star but he can be very productive.

What can I say? You listen to Fred Jackson long enough and that stuff starts rubbing off. As long as we're on the topic, Jackson on Smith after last year's spring game:

“Small guy, but a big back. He plays big. The way he blocks you and the way he’ll run over you. I’m going to bet that he’s 170 pounds, I don’t know exactly. But I’m going to say he’s 170 pounds and he runs like he’s 200 pounds.”

He was 168, actually, and now he's 180 after a productive summer. And while Jackson's hype above was based on air and mine essentially air, when forced into the lineup against Wisconsin he was productive out of the backfield. What went down on the ground was not his fault:

Vincent Smith!

Yeah, pretty much. The last time I broke out the Vincent Smith praise a commenter said he's not Mike Hart, but he might kind of be Mike Hart:

How many times did Hart do exactly that against Wisconsin to turn a three yard loss into a moderate gain? It seems like a thousand times. He will not grind piles forward like Hart did but I don't recall Hart having this sort of instant acceleration:

I will not be dissuaded on this: Smith performed pretty well in his first two quasi-starts against Wisconsin and Ohio State, scoring receiving touchdowns in each game and grinding out respectable YPC numbers against two of the country's best rushing defenses. He is probably going to start next year and he is going to be good.

Tangent: I think the threat of Smith on these screens and wheels may have had some impact on the line's ability to pass block. When there's a guy out there who can punish you for getting too far upfield, you adjust so that you are not useless when they screen it out.

VINCENT SMITH

ZIPPY
should get crushed by the  DE
smoothly cutting past it
juke on the LB.
linemen head straight upfield
Wisconsin stretch
HARTY
great, Hart-like run
like every Hart run against UW
manages to fall forward
CATCHY
into the endzone
extra flare screens
too much of a jackrabbit

Smith's ability out of he backfield was one of the team's major weapons against the Badgers, as he was targeted eight(!) times, six of them as something other than a safety valve. Despite playing sparingly, by the end of the year he'd been targeted more than any other Michigan running back, finishing with 10 catches for 82 yards in the final two games alone, and he left the Ohio State game in the first half with the ACL tear. With Michigan focused on the short passing game, he could get 30, 40, maybe 50 catches this year.

The ACL does remain a worry. Rodriguez proclaimed him 100% as early as the opening of fall camp and he seemed fine in the scrimmage, but the conventional wisdom on knee surgery is that while you can be "back" within 6-9 months, it takes twice as long to be truly comfortable doing all the things you used to do. That and Smith's general lack of size will probably put a cap on his touches this season even if he is a crazy hybrid of Mike Hart and Noel Devine, which seems somewhat optimistic.

If you're going to slot Smith into a role, it's third down back for his ability out of the backfield and his blocking—Smith's first playing time last year came when the starters were too banged up to spend their snaps on obvious pass blocking situations, so he drew into the lineup. Pahokee, man.

Extremely Nominal Backups

091909_UMFB vs EMU_MRMJudging on the same standard we judged Smith—prominence in the spring and fall plus random quotes that may not mean much—junior Michael Shaw is going to be the first guy off the bench. He looked lethal when Michigan emptied the bench against Eastern Michigan:

Farther down the road, Michigan looks in excellent shape next year at tailback, where all three backups performed well. Shaw was especially impressive; you could tell that all the stuff about being slowed by a sports hernia was no BS. Guy looked Brown fast. Maybe even faster.

Like Denard Robinson, Shaw has track cred to back that up. As a senior in high school he won the 200 at the Penn Relays and anchored the winning 4x100 and 4x200 relays. He's fast; memories of Shaw getting tracked down from behind by a Minnesota defender as a freshman should come with a reminder that he was suffering through a sports hernia—ew—and saw his own mortality afterwards:

"I broke a long run and got dragged from behind. It was then that I was like, 'I'm really hurting. I've never not been able to run, not been able to explode.' "

MICHAEL SHAW

GOOD
a good, but not explosive, gain.
jet for the endzone
Shaw into the endzone
gashing people on this
trying to go inside of Grady
forcing a cutback.
FAAAAAST
makes him look stupid

So he's fast. This is established. His problem has been with everything else so far. Shaw's been fumble- and mistake-prone for the duration of his Michigan career, which allowed Smith to pass him late. He and Smith were the only backs to cough up fumbles in the fall scrimmage. If he hadn't narrowly escaped academic ineligibility it would have kind of been typical.

On the other hand, he was just as effective as Brandon Minor in 2008 and considerably better than Sam McGuffie and Carlos Brown. Whereas Brown tended to fall over if whispered upon, Shaw's balance has caused me to say he "falls over weird" three or four times. During these weird falls he picks up some extra yards. Beyond the obvious, Huyge thinks he's got some plowhorse in him…

“Very quick guy. He’ll run hard. I don’t know how much he weighs, but it doesn’t matter. He’ll still put his head down and try to run through people, too. He’s real shifty. But that’s how our running backs are. He’s shifty and at the same time, he can turn it up and try to run someone over.”

…but that's not something I've seen. If Michigan's going to run inside it seems they've got several better options. Shaw's role: guy who you put in the game in case he runs 80 yards, a la Carlos Brown. He's a first down kind of guy.

101709_SPT_UMvDelaware_MRMRedshirt sophomore Michael Cox is a much heftier runner than Shaw but has most of his speed…and probably even more frustration to him. His physical prowess has been noted far and wide. Here's Fitzgerald Toussaint on Cox:

“He got the ability over everybody. You never know what he is going to hit you with.”

Over everyone at the position?

“Over everyone at the position, Mike Cox.”

Steve Schilling is also positive about his physical attributes:

“He’s fun to watch. He’s a big guy, so he’s powerful, but he’s also one of the quickest we have. So some of these jump cuts he’s able to make and the balance he has is pretty crazy. It’s pretty exciting to see him run. One play that could get stuck in the backfield turns into a 40-yard run for him.”

MICHAEL COX

BALANCY
balance spectacular
damp wet smearin'

Cox flashed impressive balance in his limited attempts last year, and while they were against the dregs of the schedule Cox's impressive combination of size and speed to go with that balance invites questions about why he hardly saw the field last year and is seemingly third string this year. A hint was on offer during the fall scrimmage:

Mike Cox continued to show that he might be the best athlete amongst the running backs, but on two separate instances he caused Rodriguez to "lose it" by cutting way back against the grain, turning a modest gain into nothing by dancing at the line of scrimmage. On one "there was a gap on the frontside but he cut all the way behind the backside tackle," losing yardage and causing RR to chew him out; on the second "RR just dropped his headset in disgust."

The story was much the same in spring, when Cox alternated impressive days that lent themselves to a thirteen-year-old's idea of the perfect headline with more of that stuff. Cox is the opposite of Mike Hart right now, a guy who has a ton of physical gifts but little idea how to use them. Michigan will have to put him on the field to see if he can use that upside. Whether or not he takes advantage is a mystery. His career could go like Chris Perry—a frustrating waste of obvious physical gifts until the light goes on and then BAM. Or it could just never go on. Cox is the Darryl Stonum of the running back corps; the difference here is that Michigan has a bevy of options instead of just the one potential deep threat. His role is crazy frustrating guy.

We've been hedging on roles so far, but Stephen Hopkins has an obvious one: angry mooseback. He was one of the stories of the spring after enrolling early and breaking out the truck stick on anyone with the temerity to get in front of him. His late-breaking recruiting profile encompasses the spring hype. Blockquote ahoy:

The guy is just a freaking monster and he breaks tackles. Now, I can’t say he can block, or knows the offense or can catch the ball. Plus, he fumbled twice (once he was hit at the handoff, on the other instance it might have been the QB’s issue). But man is he a tough tackle on the belly if he can get (even) a yard of momentum.

Hopkins continued to gather hype to himself in fall after losing 10 pounds and that distinct aura of cheese curds:

Hopkins was the name on everyone's tongue after a day spent running through arm tackles and showing surprising shiftiness. He "hit the holes and was a load to take down." Trusted Observer said he had a hard time picking out Hopkins before the scrimmage, as he looked like PJ Hill in the spring but after losing ten pounds and reshaping maybe a dozen others into muscle "now looks like a tailback" instead of a moonlighting fullback.

Rodriguez hardly needed to say that when Michigan needs two yards that Hopkins will be placed in front of a fullback and directed to run over anyone in his way, but he has, repeatedly. At a minimum Hopkins will be the short yardage back; once he learns the offense sufficiently he'll be great to pair with Smith or Shaw so Michigan can run the option with a dangerous downhill threat.

 

And finally there's redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint. Toussaint came in with a ton of yards, a reasonable amount of recruiting hype, and an 0.8 McGuffie highlight reel, then promptly broke his shoulder (how does that even happen?) in fall camp last year and sat out the season. This year he's been ruled out of the UConn game with an ankle injury and established local insider FormerWolve says his return for Notre Dame is a "MAYBE," which sounds like a "probably not" to these ears. For his part Toussaint says it's "feeling good" and "working out real well," so hopefully this isn't a Minor type situation where it lingers on and on.

FormerWolve also says he is the "clear #1" here, and while I doubt anything's particularly clear in this five-way shootout, Fred Jackson did call him Mike Hart… but fast! No, seriously:

"Michael Hart ability with speed. The kind of guy that can do Michael's cuts, he can sit down, sink his hips and explode by making steps. He's faster than Mike and a very, very tough guy, like Mike was. He's very similar to Mike. He's not the type of inside runner Mike was -- but he's going to get there."

Even Toussaint laughs at that:

“I ain’t ready for that statement (laughter). Mike Hart is something else. I’m just not ready for that. I’ve still got a ways too go.”

But that's not all. He's like Chris Perry… but fast!

"He's got great feet, acceleration, strength, power," Jackson said. "I can compare him to somebody -- he's like a fast Chris Perry. He's going to be very good."

Fred Jackson has puffed up a lot of guys in his twenty years at Michigan, but I think Fitzgerald Toussaint is the new king of the hill. It's interesting that Schilling's quote on Toussaint is pretty Hart-like:

“He’s a tough runner. He’s a guy that hits it up in there. He’s not afraid to go up the middle and get the extra yards, make a 4-yard run into a 6- or-7-yard run and makes some easier down-and-distance for us.”

If that's true, FormerWolve's assertion that he's the #1 guy becomes almost certain, because he was a high school track star (his 60 meter dash is about a tenth slower than Denard's)—the "fast" bit of Fred Jackson's fever dreams has been established by stopwatches. If either of the first parts are accurate… hello, nurse.

But wait! There's more! Teric Jones came in as a slot receiver/running back and was immediately thrown to the wolves at corner.  His only playing time in '09 came against Delaware State, where he was repeatedly victimized on out routes late. In the aftermath he came in for a mention:

Teric Jones got torn up by DSU, which isn't a surprise since he's a true freshman who was a tailback in high school and never saw a snap on defense. I'm shocked he's not redshirting.

He moved to safety, and then back to corner, and is now on offense. That and the state of Michigan' secondary should tell you all you need to know about his potential on defense. On offense his claim to fame is simple: speed. As a junior he turned in a 4.37 40 at the Army All-American combine, and while that's pretty FAKE it was the best time turned in by anyone in attendance at the most star-laden combine in the country. He showed a glimpse of that during the spring game when he didn't quite catch Roy Roundtree despite his ten-yard head start but came awfully close (and dusted Vlad Emilien in the process).

With the positional confusion and five viable options in front of him, Jones will probably take a redshirt year, but he's down here, waiting.

Fullback

Rating: Whateva

With Moundros's switch to defense, John McColgan should find himself inheriting the job here. A couple years ago I suggested Moundros could see his role in the offense grow to Owen Schmitt levels, but that never happened. He was targeted on some passes out of the backfield, never got a carry, and saw opportunity elsewhere. McColgan won't be much more of a factor, especially with Stephen Hopkins claiming the RAGE as an alternative to Mike-Hart-but-fast carries.

But: that same arrival makes I-form short yardage pounding a highly viable strategy and Michigan will deploy McColgan when the downs get late and the field compressed. He's currently 230, up five pounds from last year.

  • 32 comments

Fall Scrimmage Roundup: Yes, Denard

By Brian — August 23rd, 2010 at 4:05 PM — 90 comments
Filed under:
  • 2010 quarterback royal rumble
  • cameron gordon
  • denard robinson
  • devin gardner
  • drew dileo
  • fall scrimmage
  • jerald robinson
  • mark moundros
  • mike cox
  • mike martin
  • stephen hopkins
  • tate forcier
  • vincent smith
  • will hagerup

So I find myself in an extremely bizarre position: Michigan had a semi-public scrimmage on Saturday that I and a few hundred others attended after donating to Motts or buying the big baller seats. If you've been on the internet since Saturday you've noticed probably dozens of reports on message boards, the diaries here, other blogs, and one local radio host's (pretty inaccurate) tweets. Also there's a highlight video from the official site:

But they specifically told myself, MVictors, Scout, Rivals, and Craig Ross that "nothing was to be reported" from the scrimmage. This worked as well as you might imagine, leaving us on the sidelines as everyone with a username throws vague information around. So here's a bizarre roundup of things other people said on the internets and in my inbox that doesn't involve personal reporting. This lion is caged.

Quarterbacks

DenardRobinsonWMU

Popular sentiment holds that Denard is the man:

looks comfortable, made some nice throws, seems in charge of the O.  Wouldn't want to have to tackle him.

The man:

Unless something crazy happens between now and September 4, Denard Robinson is your clear starter at quarterback. The quarterbacks weren’t live today, but Robinson still managed to carve up the second-team defense (running the first-team offense, of course) with his legs and his arm. His made good decisions with the ball and his passes were on the money, and he took a QB draw 40+ yards to the house — only Denard makes that play, and he made it look easy.

The man:

He will absolutely start as he is clearly the leader on the team. He had the most energy during warm-ups, was the first one and the fastest one doing stretch drills, and was clearly the first-team QB of the day during the 'scrimmage'. He hit a nice 23-ish yard pass on a WICKED play fake to Grady. And then ran it in for another 25 or so on a QB draw, juking a DB as he went. Enough to even get the sidelines "ooh-ing".

The man:

Prior to seeing this scrimmage I was a fan of Tate and would tell anyone who asked, that Tate would be the starter. After watching the scrimmage, D-Rob will be the starter. He was much better in the pocket, made good decisions when faced with getting rid of the ball or being sacked with loss of yards, and his exchanges were very good. Think about some of the ball fakes that Juice Williams had. D-Rob isn't there yet, but he will be.

That longish pass was the a half-roll at about 2:00 in the highlights on which Robinson pulled up and nailed Terrance Robinson between the numbers and between levels in the zone. An emailer suggested that he wouldn't have believed it possible without the spring game. Also, at the end of practice they had the team run a lap around the field four times. It's "a little tough to tell" because each position group starts from a different place on the field, but 3 of the 4 times Denard was the first player on the team to finish. (Ray Vinopal seemed to win the last one.) That's "more a measure of endurance than speed."

Robinson actually got a lot less run than the other two quarterbacks, finding himself on the bench as Forcier and Gardner (and Jack Kennedy) alternated series late; when he did get on the offense would score quickly, further depressing his reps. To me that reads like the decision is already made and they are being somewhat cautious.

Conflicting reports on Gardner and Forcier. Ace's take:

Devin Gardner, running mostly with the twos, looked at times like a seasoned veteran, but he had a couple throws — including an ugly interception to Marvin Robinson — that reminded everyone he is just a freshman. His natural ability could lead to him seeing the field this year, but I think it’s safe to say he’s probably a year away from really pushing for the starting job. Really like his poise in the pocked and running ability, however, and it would have been interesting to see what he could have done if the quarterbacks were live. Tate Forcier started with the threes but saw snaps with the ones and twos as well — he looked solid throwing the ball, but made a couple poor reads on zone running plays.

Gardner came in for a lot of praise but a trusted observer in the inbox says "Gardner made a number of bad decisions under pressure." There that Marvin Robinson interception reminiscent of the slo-mo-nooooo plays last year; observer also cited a strong tendency for Gardner to panic and chuck off his back foot when blitzers got through. He suggested that in a scrimmage with more blitzing—it was exceedingly rare—Forcier would have probably looked clearly better than Gardner. While a few folk are saying there is "NO WAY" Gardner redshirts, TO thought he was at best even with Forcier and given that should watch from the sidelines. He made more big errors than anyone else.

In drills, Tate looked best, FWIW.

Running Backs

Hopkins was the name on everyone's tongue after a day spent running through arm tackles and showing surprising shiftiness. He "hit the holes and was a load to take down." Trusted Observer said he had a hard time picking out Hopkins before the scrimmage, as he looked like PJ Hill in the spring but after losing ten pounds and reshaping maybe a dozen others into muscle "now looks like a tailback" instead of a moonlighting fullback.

One negative note:

I didn't think Hopkins looked as great as everyone else did.  Not a diss on his play - he ran very hard - but I didn't see the world beater others did.  Much like the other scrimmages, all the RBs looked good, but none really stood out.  We have options in Cox and Shaw.  Though V. Smith, as reported, looks great - no noticeable effects from the injury.

Vincent Smith Ace and others also noted that Vincent Smith seems 100% healthy; you can see him dance his way down to the two in the highlights above on one of his better runs on the day. TO said it looked like he was tentatively first team with Mike Shaw second but "both those guys fumbled and I wouldn't put much stock in that."

Mike Cox continued to show that he might be the best athlete amongst the running backs, but on two separate instances he caused Rodriguez to "lose it" by cutting way back against the grain, turning a modest gain into nothing by dancing at the line of scrimmage. On one "there was a gap on the frontside but he cut all the way behind the backside tackle," losing yardage and causing RR to chew him out; on the second "RR just dropped his headset in disgust."

Toussaint did not play due to an injury.

Wide Receiver

If you're looking at playing time in this scrimmage as a signal as to which freshmen wideouts will play, your "leaders in order" are Jerald Robinson, Drew Dileo, Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, and finally DJ Williamson. Yeah, Dileo, who looked "natural fielding punts and catching the ball in drills" despite being "fricking tiny." Robinson got a lot of playing time but "dropped everything."

As for the veterans, the nominal first team was the same it was in spring with Martavious Odoms spending a lot of time outside with Darryl Stonum; Roy Roundtree was in the slot but "did not play much" probably because "they know he's the guy." In his stead Robinson and Grady got most of the playing time, with Gallon around but "not doing much." Hemingway was on the second team with Stokes.

At TE, Koger, Webb, and Moore "seemed even," with Koger suffering a frustrating drop. Robinson added one, but otherwise the starting WRs caught everything that came their way. It was mostly underneath stuff, probably because of the open nature of the scrimmage.

Offensive Line

Not much here. Molk was in a green shirt and played only sparingly (this was "precautionary"); Khoury was his backup and there were several poor snaps, two or three of which led to drive-killing fumbles. Huyge (left) and Dorrestein (right) were tackles on the first team OL. Lewan was on the second team and played beyond the whistle to the point where he got a personal foul. TO noticed Quinton Washington struggling badly in the post-practice runs, finishing last. Someone, possibly Elliot Mealer, spent practice on the bike with a red jersey. Barnum was a second-team guard and the third-team center.

Coaches kept yelling at Schofield to keep his pad level down.

Defensive Line

TO says he spent most of the scrimmage watching the offense and didn't have much on the D. He did note that Mike Martin finished first easily in the DL group on the runs with Will Campbell lagging behind. Ace highlighted Jibreel Black, who looks like a quick contributor. Another emailer said "Martin is a beast" and didn't get much playing time for precautionary reasons:

“Defensively, Mike Martin has had a tremendous camp. We limited him yesterday because we know what he can do, but he’s been really good and probably our most consistent defensive player since camp started.”

Campbell seemed to be on the third team. Sagesse sat out with an injury, though he was in green, not red.

It does not seem like Martin is moving, so everyone figure out who Greg Banks's backup is.

Linebackers

That stuff about Moundros possibly starting looks accurate:

Moundros starts in the middle, looks like he's been playing there for a while.  A run stuffer certainly.  Middle zone coverage?  Not enough data.  Ezeh also stuffed the run and took on blocks at Mouton's spot.  Roh will be a beast, but given almost all of the throws were short, his pass rush didn't have time to get home.

Not much else here. Ezeh played WLB with Mouton in green. Davion Rogers is "a twig."

Secondary

Ack. Cam Gordon, from reports ranging from some guy…

Vlad will hit you, but we all knew that.  Cam Gordon is going to be very good, I think.  Big boy.  He was in position to make two great tackles, but unfortunately didn't wrapup and was pulled off the field.  Later returned with the 1's.  Going to take some time

…to the coach…

“Yesterday probably wasn’t his best day practice-wise, but other than that he’s had a really good camp,” Rodriguez noted.

…to Cam Gordon's royal we…

“We were in position to make plays - I was in position - but we didn’t wrap up,” Gordon said. “I think we were all a little excited, especially us young guys to show what we could do and we had a breakdown in fundamentals. But those are easily correctable mistakes.

“Something Coach [Tony] Gibson said to me after our scrimmage was, ‘Cam, every hit doesn’t have to be a big hit.’ That’s a key for me and for all the guys. Any tackle is a good tackle. I don’t have to level somebody because in the stat book they all count the same way. I’ll get better and we’ll get better.”

…did not have a good day. Corners… not much detail. There's this:

JT Floyd looks good, Rogers looks big.  Teric Jones and Christian are your 2's.  Talbott and Avery don't look undersized, and don't look overwhelmed.  Again, hard to judge corner play given the nature of the throws.  But Christian has a way of moving that reminds one of Woodson.

If only. Floyd was pulled early, again likely as a precaution. Robinson looks good, a "big hitter and good tackler."  Mike Williams spent a lot of time playing spur, not doing much of note. A push for a job or a sure starter (Thomas Gordon) getting held out of a high-contact scrimmage?

Special Teams

No worries at punter, where Hagerup's warmups were "just like Zoltan." The section of the practice dedicated to the punt team saw the punts "go straight" and were actually returnable. All were fielded cleanly except one fumble from Terrence Robinson. Here, too, Dileo "looked like a natural," executing a fair catch with aplomb and fielding an array of kickoffs and punts cleanly.

Field goal kicking was limited, with just two attempts. Meram missed from around 40, Gibbons hit from around 35. Kickoffs landed from the 2 to 10, which is about average these days. Kickoff coverage must be run at half speed because every one was returned to about midfield and then blown dead.

  • 90 comments
  • « first
  • ‹ previous
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • next ›
  • last »
Powered by Pressflow, an open source content management system
Theme provided by Roopletheme; sidebars adapted from Chris Murphy.