spoiler alert: i linked this
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OKAY SO THIS IS THE SCHEDULE.
- 8:10 AM: TN WR Nate Johnson. Michigan.
- 9 AM: MI CB Lavert Hill. Michigan.
10 AM: MI OL Alaric Jackson. M, Iowa, Nebraska.
- 11 AM: MI K Quinn Nordin. Michigan.
11:30 AM: AZ DE Connor Murphy. Michigan, USC, Oregon, ASU.
- 1 PM: NJ DE Rashan Gary. Michigan.
1 PM: FL WR Pie Young. Michigan, Louisville, USC.
- 3PM: CA TE Devin Asiasi. Michigan.
3PM: CA DT Boss Tagaloa. Michigan, USC, UCLA, UW. 4PM: CA QB Vic Viramontes. Michigan, Utah, Cal.
OKAY SO THIS IS THE NEWS-ONLY TWITTER COLLECTION
OKAY SO THIS IS THE EXULTATION/PANIC/DEPRESSION THREAD
Answering questions whilst chained to my laptop all day. If I don't get to yours it's almost certainly because it's already been answered several times already, or I'm answering it right now. Greg Little is not flipping. I deeply regret ever bringing his name up in speculation. There is no silent commit whose name isn't on the schedule above. Don't tweet at croots.
Back in the day the recruiting roundups that Ace would put together would show the star ratings from each site of the various Michigan targets. The problem was we kept noticing dramatic differences that weren't really dramatic. For example here's a table of guys given 5-stars by these services since the 2010 class:
Was Scout ludicrously high on M guys, or giving out more 5-stars? Actually they were all ranking not that far from each other, but Michigan just happened to get a lot of the guys in that 4-/5-star margin. It only looks dramatic because there are only five possible rankings.
This was recruiting until 247 introduced their composite rating. That composite is so amazingly useful for most "how good was he as a recruit" questions.
Since forever I've also been maintaining this spreadsheet of data on Michigan players that started as a naming sheet for some iteration of the NCAA game, and just kept gaining columns. My old way of tracking the recruiting ratings on that was to take the stars each service gave out, figuring they all roughly had the same definitions, and average them.
But that was throwing away a ton of information provided by the sites, which typically post national rankings for the top ~250-300 recruits, and in three of their cases have their own more precise star rating systems. For example Rivals's 5-star range includes "6.1" and "6.0", while ESPN (50-95) and 247 (69-102) have numeric scales with the decades roughly coinciding with the next star rating.
They also have position ratings, which don't match up since they split positions differently, but if they can all be turned into percentiles.
So far I've done all but the last bit. Matching table's above. What we end up with is not a composite system like 247's so much as a composite Star Rating system that quadruples the star precision level.
I tried to honor stars and what they mean, but I also took national rankings and position rankings into account when one site's rating spanned multiple ratings of its competitors. So a 5.8 on Rivals will be a 4.00 if he makes the Rivals 250, and a 3.75 if he doesn't. And a 3-star WR on Scout who's ranked just behind the 4-star receivers in the WR rankings is like a 3.5-star.
[After the Jump: charts until I literally break Excel]
Hello. This is an attempt to give you a 1,000 foot view of Michigan's current recruiting class. It lives as a wiki post under the "Useful Stuff" heading as well, and can be updated by anyone with 500+ points.
not eligible sry [Patrick Barron]
We assume Michigan will go to 28.
Michigan has 16 open spots right now plus three specialists who may be on one of those "you get the first spot that opens up" kind of deals. In addition there are 2-4 guys who probably won't get fifth years.
Thus Michigan is expecting to lose at least 5-8 current members of the roster (other than fifth years) before Signing Day. (Big Ten rules prevent teams from oversigning unless they can explain where the scholarship is coming from.) That's not an inordinate number given the roster composition, the sudden possibility of NFL interest, and the fact that this is the first year of a new coach. We know of one guy who is already planning a playing-time transfer, FWIW, and there are no doubt more.
CURRENT CLASS SIZE
We are not considering Dele Harding a commit. He was removed from the Rivals commit list and any insider you poke will tell you they don't expect him to end up at Michigan.
We have also heard that some of the camp commits in the class were explicitly offered grayshirt deals. We are not exactly sure who, but depending on how things go Michigan could end up with extra spots in the class as guys reclassify to 2017 or take opportunities for 2016 elsewhere.
In addition, Chris Evans, Kingston Davis, and David Reese have all announced plans to take visits and should be considered soft commits.
So: the current class is somewhere between 14 and 20 guys. Welcome to 'crootin.
ROOM LEFT AND WHO MICHIGAN IS TARGETING
Michigan can take somewhere between 8 and 14 additional players. They are targeting approximately
- one running back
- one wide receiver
- one tight end
- one OL
- one kicker
- two or three DL
- two or three LB
- one or two CB
- one or two S
The only spot that is definitively full right now is QB.
MICHIGAN FOOTBALL 'CROOTIN OVERVIEW
|DECENT SHOT||TOP GROUP||LEADER||HARD
|RB (2)||K. Davis*||K. Enis|
|WR (2 +1)||
|Slot (1)||P Young
|TE (1+1)||D Asiasi||
|DT (+1)||B Tagaloa||R. Weaver|
|NT (+1)||K Camp
|SDE (1)||C Murphy||R. Johnson|
|WDE (1+1)||T Lucas#||Q Alexander||C Kemp|
|SLB (0)||J McCulloch|
|ILB (3+1)||D Jackson||C Kelly
D Bush Jr
|CB (8+1)||A. Richardson
|S (1+1)||A Posey#||J Fuller
|L Jackson||D. Gil
|P/K/LS (0+1)||Q Nordin|
commits in bold
Latest Updates: Debut
thumbs up [Bryan Fuller]
Class size: fishy?
Since the 2016 Michigan recruiting class has already grown beyond the 14 scholarships that are known to be available, do you have a take or any insight as to how far Coach Harbaugh is willing to go with regards to oversigning? Is it simply a matter of players not being offered a 5th year or could we actually see Michigan take a step toward opening the Harbaugh wing of St. Saban's Memorial Hospital?
I have a hard time believing that we could get that draconian with recruiting, but is there a danger that we step too close to the line that coaches like Urban Meyer and Nick Saban crossed a long time ago?
A quick glance at the Depth Chart By Class shows a large number of redshirt juniors who are not currently contributors. At this point many aren't expected to be. Those guys can graduate and either take a fifth year elsewhere or head to the real world without anything about their departure being shady. There are between four and six candidates for the firm handshake on the roster.
Also, I've heard that there were a couple guys who were likely to take medical redshirts of the legit variety. I'm surprised we haven't heard any announcements about that yet—maybe there's enough room for the players in question to see if they can get back to where they need to be this year.
Add those two things together and you have 20 or so spots right now. It's reasonable to expect playing time and other attrition to get Michigan to the 25 they seem to be planning on—most teams in year one of a new coach see attrition like that.
I don't expect this to be a long term trend. Harbaugh's classes at Stanford ended up with 19, 17, 22, and 22 kids. That is a mere 80 in four years. (The transition class between Harbaugh and Shaw was 19, FWIW.) Harbaugh is clearly alarmed at the state of the roster and is trying to get in guys who he thinks are a good fit as quickly as reasonably possible.
It is possible it'll seem shady in February. Right now it looks like a reasonable approach.
Cat fight fix, more attrition stuff.
Ace's Stanford recruiting diagnosis reminded me of JH's public cat fight with Mike Hart and Jamie Morris. I did some digging yesterday on whether those fences were mended and found general statements from Morris about Jim being the right guy for the job before his hire in Dec/Jan, but nothing direct. This scuffle was a huge deal at the time and many wrote off Harbaugh for good. Do you know if this was all swept under the rug or if we've kissed an made up?
I'm not sure if Mike Hart buried the hatchet with Harbaugh. I didn't hear anything about it during the search, and it is possible that he was omitted from the "everyone call Jim Harbaugh" list, whether by accident or on purpose.
I have heard that Harbaugh and Carr had a conversation about a lot of things that did directly address those comments to the satisfaction of both men. Thus Carr's public advocacy of hiring Harbaugh even before that was accomplished. From my impressions of both men I'm guessing they're never going to be best buds; Carr was clearly practical enough to identify the best option for Michigan's coaching search.
Also in regards to Ace's post, it seems like this year will serve as a decent case study for how JH will handle 'crootin. We are taking guys at an astonishing pace this summer, and a class that is estimated to be near the 28 man limit is already filling up. Like most, I found that a bit unsettling and hope the additional public attention at UM curbs this activity (especially if Jimmy's going to cast stones at OSU 'crootin).
As I mentioned above, Harbaugh history in terms of attrition is very conservative. Some of the decommits Ace detailed aren't how I'd want Michigan's coach to go about things, but at least those guys were able to get the picture relatively early and find places.
[After THE JUMP: "his guys," speed, Harbaugh counterfactuals.]