THE GOAL OF DRAFTAGEDDON
The goal of Draftageddon is YOU DO NOT TALK ABOUT DRAFTAGEDDON.
I'm hearing this is incorrect. I see. The goal of Draftageddon is to draft a team of Big Ten players that seems generally more impressive than that of your competitors. Along the way, we'll learn a lot of alarming things, like maybe Maryland is good? Full details are in the first post.
PREVIOUSLY ON DRAFTAGEDDON
- Everyone not grabbing dual-threat senior QBs grabs defensive linemen
- Seth takes Venric Mark in front of just about everyone
- Nothing terribly remarkable happens
- BISB takes all the guys I want
- A ridiculous amount of time is spent discussing the merits of one particular interior lineman from Rutgers
THE CURRENT SITUATION
ROUND 11 - PICK 2: Matt Robinson, OLB, Maryland
O: RB Ameer Abdullah (NE), WR Devin Funchess (U-M), TE Maxx Williams (MN), LT Brandon Scherff (IA), LG Kaleb Johnson (RU)
D: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DE/DT Andre Monroe (MD), NT Darius Kilgo (MD), OLB Chi Chi Ariguzo (NW), OLB Matt Robinson (MD), CB Desmond King (IA)
ST: KR/PR Ameer Adbullah (NE)
ACE: Yes, I'm becoming concerned with my own fascination with Maryland's front seven, but it really is a good front seven. Robinson, in particular, is an interesting case. He came to Maryland as a safety, started eight games there over three injury-plagued seasons—picking up a medical redshirt in the process—then moved to strongside linebacker in 2013, where he flourished: in 11 games, he recorded 73 tackles (43 solo), 10 TFLs, a sack, four pass breakups, a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries. According to CBSSports, he's the #10 OLB prospect in the 2015 class after just one season at the position, five spots behind Jake Ryan (BiSB's 4th-round pick) and 11 spots ahead of Taiwan Jones (Seth's 5th-rounder).
This is Round 11.
Robinson's solid production against the run proved a pleasant surprise; given his experience in the secondary, his excellent coverage skills much less so. Sometimes you don't know what you have until it's not there, and that's what happened to Maryland and their ability to cover the middle of the field when Robinson missed two games with a rotator cuff injury last season:
If you want more proof of Robinson's importance, just take a look at what happened in the Virginia game. Maryland nearly lost to a team that went 2-10, largely because Robinson was not there to cover tight end Jake McGee, who posted a season-best performance of eight catches for 114 yards. The other game Robinson missed? Wake Forest, where [slot] Mike Campanaro [caught] 11 passes for 122 yards without support from Robinson over the middle.
That comes from a Testudo Times (SBNation's Maryland blog) article making the case for Robinson as the team's defensive MVP; this section is also rather compelling:
But what if you can have a player who can do both [run support and coverage]? Someone who could, I don't know, provide nearly perfect coverage of slant routes and other plays over the middle while also containing the field from quarterback scrambles and draw plays, forcing turnovers and punts whenever third downs went his way?
Linebacker Marcus Whitfield and safety Sean Davis may have posted the gaudiest stats, but there was another player who came up with big plays when the Terps needed them and dominated every aspect of the defensive game -- Matt Robinson.
In addition to his physical ability, Robinson also acts as a coach on the field, according to the Washington Post:
Robinson was always studious ... and his class notebooks contained equal parts lecture points and X’s and O’s scribbled into the margins. He is quiet on the field, shying away from trash talk or even primal screams after big plays, but he studies enough film to call out certain offensive plays before they happen. Cornerback Jeremiah Johnson, one of Robinson’s roommates, said it’s “kind of like having a coach or a graduate assistant on the field with you.”
He plans to be a coach when his playing career is over.
I've made a concerted effort to put together an experienced and versatile front seven, and Robinson fits that mold. He played safety at 6'3", 215-ish, bulked up to 240 pounds last year while maintaining his coverage skills, and went through this spring practice—the first for which he's been healthy since his freshman year—at 244 pounds; he'll fit in just fine on the strong side in a 4-3. With Marcus Whitfield and his nine sacks gone from Maryland's WLB spot, Robinson could factor in more as a pass-rusher this fall, and his size allows me to slide him inside in nickel situations, giving my defense excellent coverage over the middle with him and Ariguzo. While the injuries are admittedly a concern, Robinson is a steal here if he stays healthy.
ROUND 11 - PICK 3: Mike Hull, LB, Penn State
O: QB Devin Gardner (UM), WR Kenny Bell (Neb), WR Shane Wynn (IU), OT Donovan Smith (PSU), C Austin Blythe (Iowa)
D: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DE Noah Spence (OSU), LB Jake Ryan (UM), LB Mike Hull (PSU) CB Sojourn Shelton (Wisky), S Kurtis Drummond (MSU),
BISB: How about a linebacker who recorded more tackles and more solo tackles than Matt Robinson, and in fewer games? Surely such a creature could not be found here in the depths of the 11th round. That is, unless the Big Ten houses something called 'Linebacker University.' Mike Hull registered 78 tackles (44 solo) in basically 9 games after missing much of the early part of the year with a leg injury. He averaged over 9 tackles per game in Big Ten play.
I share Seth's hatred of tautological analysis, but he's just a linebacker. When a guy is 6'0" and still the 12th highest linebacker on the aforementioned CBSSports OLB ratings, which always ALWAYS overemphasize measurables, you know the kid can play. He's probably a WILL in my scheme, but I may more Ryan to the MIKE and play him as a smaller SAM in an Over front.
Robinson may be only five spots behind my 4th-rounder Jake Ryan. But he's also 17 spots ahead of Chi Chi Ariguzo... who you took in the 4th round. With the pick after Jake Ryan. So let me ask you, Congressman: were you wrong then, or are you wrong now?
Also, I wish to point out the fallacy of saying "Robinson is valuable because a tight end torched Maryland in his absence." The wisdom of XKCD teaches us that sometimes your rock doesn't scare away tigers. Sometimes the tigers would have torched your secondary regardless. Wait, I think I bailed on the metaphor too early. Or too late. Alas.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Ace is outed as an expansion-lover. Also, WILDCARD, BITCHES]
WHAT IS THE POINT OF DRAFTAGEDDON
This has been asked by some readers.
What is the point of anything? We're all just moths in a tornado, trying to hold on for one more rotation before our wings are torn from us and we still continue ascending in violation of all expectation. A grapefruit on a bicycle rises through the dust and says "I'll get you, my pretty HAHAHAHA."
In non-existential terms, the point of Draftageddon is to assemble a football team from available players in the Big Ten this year. At the end, the winner is the team that seems the most impressive, as judged by people who want to vote on these things. All participants are winners in their own mind, especially Heiko.
The point of Draftageddon is also to preview the Big Ten. By the time we're done we have a grasp of the various high points of the Rutgers defensive line and Maryland receiving corps that would not happen otherwise; after it is done we do a roundtable post about what we've learned about the upcoming Big Ten season.
ROUND 7 - PICK 1: DE Frank Clark, Michigan
O: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), RB Melvin Gordon (UW), WR Stefon Diggs (MD), OT Rob Havenstein(WI)
D: DE Frank Clark(MI), DT Carl Davis(IA), CB Trae Waynes (MSU)
BRIAN: One of the reasons I was rather lackadaisical about getting a DE is the fact that the Big Ten just has them in spades this year. I did make note of Cockran because I love grabbing Minnesota DL I can taunt you with for decades, but there is another, older, more established guy available. Despite four DEs going off the board already I'm able to select Frank Clark, who was second-team All Big Ten a year ago with 12 TFLs and 4.5 sacks.
He's poised to break out again as a senior, as his numbers don't quite reflect how well he was playing once the light went on midseason. I watched him develop from looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane into a legit plus player over the course of last year. By late his combination of power and agility allowed him to make certain tackles look downright silly.
He still has plenty of ceiling left to reach at 270 pounds; incrementally better performance over the course of the year should see him hit the mid-teens in TFLs, 8 or so sacks, and get drafted somewhat high by the NFL. The gap between Clark and the guys already off the board is not that big.
ROUND 7 - PICK 2: Andre Monroe, DE/DT, Maryland
O: RB Ameer Abdullah (NE), WR Devin Funchess (U-M), TE Maxx Williams (MN), LT Brandon Scherff (IA)
D: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DE/DT Andre Monroe (MD), LB Chi Chi Ariguzo (NW)
ST: KR/PR Ameer Adbullah (NE)
ACE: I've been thinking about making this pick since the fourth round, but I waited, banking on the fact that he plays for Maryland and has generated zero draft hype to cause him to fall. I can't wait any longer.
Andre Monroe is a senior who's played nose tackle and five-tech DE in Maryland's 3-4 scheme, but he's moving to the edge as a senior. There's good reason for this: he was by far the best player on a solid D-line, tallying 42 tackles (23 solo), 17 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles last season after missing all of 2012 with a knee injury. In 2011, he earned freshman All-American honors with five sacks in just nine games. He's not just capable of standing up to double teams; he's an accomplished pass rusher.
Those stats weren't just compiled against the dregs of the ACC, either; he had 3 TFLs with a sack against Florida State and 3 sacks against Virginia Tech in 2013. The VT game shows off his diverse pass-rushing arsenal. Here's an outrageously quick swim move to the inside that momentarily paralyzes the left guard. Here he uses his hands nicely to get off the line clean before one-arm power-rushing the left tackle into the quarterback. Here a straight bull-rush off the edge does the trick. Here the video inexplicably starts a half-second after the snap, but whatever the hell he did left the LG performing a befuddled pirouette.
Okay, VT's line wasn't very good last year, but... I be like dang anyway. If you're not convinced, here he is as a nose guard sacking Jameis Winstonafter blasting the center off the line. If you're still not convinced, here's a video of him showing off some surprisingly nimble dance moves at a fundraising event.
I assume you're convinced by now.
So why isn't he getting draft hype? Simple. He's 5'11", 275 pounds. An NFL scout takes one look at those measurements, bugs out his eyes, and moves on to a prospect with a remotely decent fit in a pro defense. This is college, however, and Monroe has proven he can be productive at two different spots on the defensive line, and his pass rushing ability gives me little doubt he'll succeed this year as a destructive rush linebacker. He can provide a great deal of versatility in any defense.
As for where he'll fit on my team, we'll see—I could use him as a disruptive, undersized three-tech or let him blow up double teams and use his edge-rushing skills as an SDE. (Given the lack of top-end linebackers, a 3-4 isn't something I'm really considering.) Either way, I know this: as a solid run defender and consistent backfield presence, he's the ideal complement for Shilique Calhoun.
I can't snark here, both because I'm shedding a tear for the lost reuniting of the Aceconsin Cheesebenders and I'm hopeful this is the year Frank Clark puts it all together.
[AFTER THE JUMP: everyone takes my guys because they're jeeeeeeerks.]
A sign you may have broken things. ACC and Big Ten teams are considering playing nonconference games against… other ACC and Big Ten teams. IE, intraconference nonconference games.
Some Atlantic Coast Conference schools are considering scheduling future nonconference games against -- ironically -- other ACC schools, league athletic directors and coaches told ESPN.com.
This is because the ACC is even more totally borked than the Big Ten. They have crossover rivals and eight games so…
non-primary crossover rivals in the Atlantic and Coastal divisions may only play each other once in an 11-year span.
College football is so, so stupid.
As far as the Big Ten goes, it doesn't sound like anything is going to come of their mutterings:
… Penn State AD Joyner said some discussion about playing B1G opponents in non-con games. Former Mich AD Martin proposed this years ago.
— ESPN Big Ten (@ESPN_BigTen) May 13, 2014
Martin was kind of a space cadet, and I think he "proposed" this one year when the Big Ten was still at 11 teams in an effort to have the Jug game played even when Minnesota rotated off the schedule. This is how far we've come: Martin was alarmed that Michigan would have Minnesota rotate off the schedule once a decade, and now ACC teams will see each other once a decade.
It may be time to go in the thinkin' tank and come up with another ludicrously complicated dynamic scheduling setup that provides something resembling satisfaction. Or I could just… not do that again.
Even if the infractions committee was a lazy committee, and the committee was most certainly was that, perhaps the laziest in the entire NCAA, which would place him high in the running nationwide…
A sign you have definitely broken things. The NCAA does not have a major violations case and has not had one in six months.
Last August, the NCAA trumpeted a new violation structure and additional committee members to review cases more quickly and efficiently.
How is that going?
So far, the NCAA has no Division I major violations cases on its public database since Fordham's baseball team was penalized last November. The nearly six-month stretch marks Division I's longest without a completed major case since an eight-month period in 1997 and '98.
Very, very quick and efficient, then. Add another reason to the enormous pile of reasons to deregulate kids getting money from wherever they want: they already are and the NCAA isn't even trying to do anything about it anymore. Even NCAA honchos admit it, and they won't admit anything.
“I think everybody would agree the NCAA enforcement procedures are broken,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “They haven't heard a case in eight months. Without the weight of perjury or the power of subpoena, it's a wonder they get to the bottom of anything."
Let's take all the money wasted on compliance people and spend it on anything else. Full cost of attendance scholarships. Non-revenue sports. Cotton candy machines. Whatever.
Excellent timing, at least. Caris LeVert had surgery on his foot to repair a stress fracture and will be out for a couple months. He should be back for Michigan's late summer training and make the Europe trip, so any effect on Michigan's season should be minimal.
Yup, definitely cursed. Rutgers picked up Minnesota transfer Phillip Nelson this offseason, just in time for Nelson to get into real bad trouble:
The unknown man then struck Kolstad, who witnesses say was knocked out before Nelson allegedly kicked Kolstad's head "like a soccer ball." Steph Stassen, who witnessed the incident, told the Star Tribune that Kolstad was "unconscious after the first punch" and didn't brace himself as he fell to the ground, hitting his head.
Rutgers dismissed the guy without saying anything horrendous, which qualifies as their best crisis communication in a decade.
Hair trigger. Michigan's axed men's tennis coach Bruce Berque after ten years, nine of which saw Michigan make the NCAA tournament. Berque was 66-25 in the Big Ten, and tennis has long been dominated by warm-weather schools. Firing the guy after one mediocre 6-5 Big Ten season that still saw Michigan make the tourney is very much on the Excellence Demander side of the scale.
Muddling through. Elsewhere in non-revenue sports in which guys have gotten a quick hook, baseball finishes its regular season this weekend with an odd nonconference series against #22 Kansas.
A late surge saw Michigan win 4 of their last six conference games and slide into fifth place. That puts them in the Big Ten tourney and lets them avoid a potential second-round matchup with 19-2 Indiana, one of the super-rare Big Ten teams that appears to be a threat to reach Omaha. The Hoosiers are 35-12 overall and #9 in the most recent Baseball America poll.
That's a lot. Penn State drew 72k to its spring game, which is kind of amazing since State College is tiny and isolated. That's more than the combined attendance for Michigan(15k… generously) and Michigan State(35k). Penn State did a big old thing with autograph lines and such, and held it late. Here's the impact of holding your spring game at the beginning of April versus the end:
Still, the April 26 crowd on the sunny, 55-degree day, was believed to be an unofficial spring game record in East Lansing and ranked as the 13th-largest in the nation.
Michigan, meanwhile, drew 15,000 for its spring game amid 38-degree temperatures on April 5 in Ann Arbor.
Also punting drills.
More hearings. Some Democrats are prepping another hearing for the NCAA, one which seems like it will feature fewer twits waving iPads around because they just googled something:
"As colleges and universities generate growing revenue and publicity with each passing year for colleges and universities, the NCAA, and sponsors, the potential for exploitation and abuse of student-athletes has never been greater. In turn, the need for an organization dedicated to protecting student-athletes is more important than ever."
Referencing Northwestern scholarship football players' effort to unionize and a National Labor Relations Board regional director's determination that that athletes are employees who can unionize, the letter says "if the NCAA were accomplishing its mission of protecting student-athletes from exploitive practices those efforts would be unnecessary and likely unsuccessful."
Protecting athletes from exploitive practices? This is its mission? It may be its mission statement.
Etc.: McGary won't work out at the NBA combine, which is not good for him. Talking Michigan with NW blog Lake The Posts. Illinois suspends C Darius Paul for all of next year. Paul was probably going to get 15-20 minutes backing up Egwu. Happy trails to UMHoops beat guy Joe Stapleton. Clay Travis is a twit.
I wonder where fightin' bird guy is today. North Dakota may want to stop playing Frozen Four semifinals. First you've got the Life As A Vole Hunwick game…
…and then last night a Minnesota defenseman with zero goals on the season scored a shorthander with 0.6 seconds left to knock them out. Seriously.
North Dakota won their consolation game in the league playoffs to push Michigan out of the tournament, which I was mad about but maybe I should thank them because I would be waking up in a dumpster today if that had happened to Michigan. I would not feel well.
Minnesota plays Union for the title tomorrow at 7:30. Go Union, if only to see Mark Emmert's head explode. THE CALL IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE, MARK.
I mean why would you want to do that. An excellent article on Fox Sports about Derek Mason, former Stanford DC and new guy at Vanderbilt discusses how Mason came to prominence thanks to his ability to adapt to the hurry-up spread offenses that are kind of a big deal when you're in the same division as Oregon. Mason lays out the four things that up tempo does for your offense, and while they're really only three things if you can divide it's a good framework for understand why the spread keeps spreading, Danielson be damned:
1) Defenses get stuck in one call
While defensive coordinators enter a game with a long list of plays, the defenders on the field are often forced to play the same call repeatedly when the ball is being snapped every 14-18 seconds. The middle linebacker often looks to the sideline only to see the defensive signal-caller frantically gesturing to repeat the last call.
2) Defenses don’t get ready in time
Even when defensive players get their play call on time – some defenses will often call two or three plays in advance when facing an up-tempo team – you will often see the defenders unsuccessfully scurrying to get into their proper alignment before the ball is snapped.
3) One-on-one matchups
Tackling a skill player one-on-one in space is one of the most difficult tasks in football. Up-tempo offenses often operate out of a spread scheme that forces defenses to cover the entire width and length of the field, as Mason noted.
4) More snaps per game
I'm not clear on why more snaps are necessarily better, at least insofar as you get more snaps because you're moving faster. More snaps are obviously good because that means you didn't punt; outside of that the only thing I can think of there is that defenders tend to get tired more quickly than offensive players. Substitution patterns certainly indicate that's the case.
I would also add that a high tempo team is more flexible in its approach to the clock: for them slowing it down is a matter of hanging out at the line of scrimmage longer than they usually do. For a team that does not operate in a hurry-up environment, accelerating is considerably more difficult.
Mason's reacted to the above issues by having hybrid players who may not be the best at any one thing but can straddle the line between run support and pass coverage, having simple, quick playcalls, and training their defenders the way Oregon trains offense: relentless pace.
Anyway: Hoke talk about toughness is grating these days because he's content with an offense that doesn't try to make it tough on other people. Toughness is something Michigan has to have because things are being done to them. (It is also grating because Michigan finished dead last in tackles for loss allowed in year three of being a Tough Team that Runs Power.)
Excellent timing. You may find yourself suddenly more interested in this profile of Mark Donnal the Daily published five days ago. He's getting hype; let's hope it pans out.
Donnal’s not sure when exactly it was, just that it came around the middle of the regular season, but he turned a corner. He’d found success against Morgan and Horford enough in practice that he knew he belonged.
“I started to pick up everything, and my game started to come back to me, and I’m getting in the flow of the college game,” Donnal said.
If it wasn’t for the redshirt, Morgan and Horford might have had to worry about their job security.
“He’s becoming a force,” Morgan said. “He’s hard to guard down there in the post, and he’s definitely come a long way.
“Over the past couple months, he’s just become really good. Really dominates, shoots the ball well.”
Donnal is still just 18—he's young, like Caris—and has upside yet to tap.
Brace yourself! Someone at Penn State has been in the photoshop doin' the shrooms.
— Matt Brown (@MattSBN) April 11, 2014
James Franklin being a great recruiter is a kids these days kind of thing.
At least we're not alone. On the one hand, Ohio State has a real spring game with a player draft and opens practices to students, and this makes me sad because it's clear their athletic department doesn't have quite the contempt for their fans that Michigan's does. On the other, they're not immune from Creating The Future either.
Didn't know Ohio State was charging $20 for a scrimmage. Guessing the same dipshit there who tries to seize blog assets came up with that.
— Ramzy Nasrallah (@ramzy) April 11, 2014
On a third, mutant hand, imagine a version of the Michigan spring game that anyone, dipshit or not, could believe was worth 20 dollars. OSU knocked the price down to 5, apparently. I wonder if there are punting drills.
Okay bro. I'll take this shot from a fan of any program but two:
Here's a hard and round number for you: 10 years. That's how long its been since Michigan has won a Big Ten championship. To locate a gap that pronounced in Michigan's storied and (schadenfreude alert) oppressively self-congratulatory history, you have to hearken back to the pre-Schembechler era.
Those programs are Notre Dame and especially—especially—Penn State, which author Michael Weinreb is a fan of. Until Sandusky blew everything all to hell, Penn State was recruiting kids by noting that they'd never been on probation.
Their mantra of "Success With Honor" implies that most places having success don't have honor. Michigan's is just about winning football games. Penn State was stuck so far up its own butt smelling roses that they allowed the worst thing in the history of college football to happen. You might not want to claim Michigan's history is "oppressively self-congratulatory" in that context.
Ok, bro. Get The Picture finds this assertion in Northwestern's appeal to the national NLRB:
Contrary to the Regional Director’s findings, Northwestern scholarship football student-athletes are not “initially sought out, recruited and ultimately granted scholarships because of their athletic prowess on the football field.”
I would have believed this in the 1980s. Nowadays the only school that can claim that with a straight face is Purdue.
Wow. Bursaspor's new stadium is… it's this.
Orson says he'd trade the Swamp for this as long as the interior was searing orange, and… yeah, you'd have to do it. I await Spencer's longform piece on Turkish soccer with bated breath, and not just because I once pretend-managed a Turkish third-division team to the Champions League title despite Turkey's restrictive rules on foreign soccer players. Also because in Turkey things like this happen:
The club switched names with crosstown club Kayseri Erciyesspor in 2004.
YANKEES: "We're sick of being the Yankees. Would you like to be the Yankees?"
METS: "Jolly good. Here's Mr. Met and a legacy of crippling failure."
Also they have doner kebab. They are probably the origin of doner kebab. Go Turkey.
The usual. Kam Chatman is up to #38 on ESPN's final recruit rankings and draws mention as one of their top risers:
Kameron Chatman, Michigan: He’s a classic late bloomer who has continued to improve at a rapid rate and yet very clearly still has his best basketball in front of him. A highly skilled southpaw with excellent size on the wing, Chatman’s frame has now started to fill out at a much more rapid rate, giving him the versatility not just to splash 3s over contesting defenders but also to diversify his offensive game around the rim. He’s also a deceptively good ball handler and very good passer, all of which will be utilized in Michigan’s offensive system. The bottom line is that it was clear he was still trending up, so he jumped 13 spots.
A palpable fit.
Etc.: I'm here for the sex… ual misconduct investigation. Breaking down the best offenses of the Kenpom era. The 1995 Virginia game on the tubes. Basketball would like to add another quality home game to next year's schedule. Magnus on the spring game. Stapleton on Michigan's sophomores-to-be. The state of Michigan basketball.
— Zoltan Mesko (@ZoltanMesko) January 17, 2014
ATTN: New Yorkers. Rather large game approaching on the 23rd. If you seek the camaraderie of your fellow Michigan Man, here is a thing you might do: hang out with Zoltan Mesko and two small dogs at Professor Thom's, with proceeds going to a good cause. Details:
Professor Thom's, February 23rd, Noon.
Happy hour drink specials, complimentary appetizers, door prizes & more!
A $10 donation at the door (or online) to benefit the Zoltan Mesko Foundation will be your ticket to the event. If you can't make it, but would still like to donate please do so at zoltanmeskofoundation.org
Here is the facebook page. No word about speedo availability, ladies.
Just the worst. If you follow me on twitter you already know about this, but since many people don't for excellent reasons like "tends to go on rants about Penn State bench players," let me introduce you to John Johnson, a guy getting ten minutes a game for Penn State who drives me completely insane because:
- His ORTG is 87, which is actually up two points from last night.
- Despite this he takes 23% of PSU's shots when he's on the court.
- He has an assist rate of 4.6 and TO rate of 20.
- His parents named him "John Johnson," which is… wow. Also what happens when he finds out about Major Major Major Major? Exactly.
I have to tell you about this here because BISB stole my platform to lob statistical oddities at you and now I just track Illinois defensive rebounding anomalies in my basement.
Did you know the Big Ten now has TWO guys named Maverick? Or that Purdue has only three guys playing more than half their minutes, and nobody (NOBODY) averaging 30 minutes a game? Or that Northwestern starts a guy, Sanjay Lumpkin, who takes fewer than 10% of available shots? Only me and the basement elves did.
By the way, do we have a Reggie Cleveland All Star team for guys who should be oompa-loompas but are in fact 6'6" half-Indian dudes? Because… well, you see where I'm going with this.
OTHER THING. Rewatching the Ohio State game made one thing clear: Amir Johnson tries to block everything. I mentioned the Morgan basket on a missed Albrecht shot that was functionally equivalent to a pass as Williams came over. That is a canonical example but far from the only one. About ten minutes into the first half it became clear that OSU's defensive rebounding problems were about 80% Williams attempting to swat everything, leaving Michigan bigs all alone on the weakside.
The offensive rebound numbers don't even tell the full story, as there were a number of instances in which Michigan was in position to add to their totals until funny bounces intervened. The numbers back this up, especially if you tick over to the conference only Kenpom stats. Ohio State is 11th in the league at defensive rebounding. And it doesn't even help their defense. In league play OSU is 10th at defending twos.
OTHER OTHER THING. What, you want links to things? Oh fine. Here is your Indiana schadenfreude after they managed to lose to Penn State despite being up 11 with three minutes left.
This is absolutely 100% unacceptable. This team is hot garbage with a bevy of talent. Seriously, I'm not going to talk any crap about youth or inexperience. That had nothing to do with the non-stop disasters that we've witnessed this year. I even want to try and blame this most recent egg on Tom Crean and I can't find where I actually feel he had a problem in this game.
Win chart? Hell yes.
I'd like to thank the Nittany Lions for doing that to someone else this year.
New rules. The NCAA proposes allowing replay booths to not only overturn targeting expulsions but also the targeting penalties, which was always going to happen once it became clear that leaving half of a non-penalty to stand was rage-inducing. So hooray.
The committee also recommended a rules change that will allow defensive units to substitute within the first 10 seconds of the 40-second play clock, with the exception of the final two minutes of each half, starting with the 2014 season.
If a team snaps the ball before 29 seconds on the play clock they will be hit with a five yard delay of game penalty.
You try to not be a jerk about everything and this is how they repay you.
More offensive yet is the stated reason for these changes:
“This rules change is being made to enhance student-athlete safety by guaranteeing a small window for both teams to substitute,” said Calhoun.
Nobody buys this. A player who is hurt or in trouble can fall over and the game will stop to accommodate them.
Speedy coaches have texted any reporter they know expressing their skepticism/disgust, and some guys have even taken to twitter to express something than bland positivity. "Think of the children" isn't flying in this case. The pushback here exceeds anything I've seen in the last decade or so. Even the hated clock rules that got rolled back after one season didn't get public heated disagreement from coaches.
But… Matt Hinton does point out that very few snaps would have much chance of running afoul of the rule. Oregon averaged 20 seconds per snap, so how many would actually be under ten? Not many.
I went back to the the canonical example of lightspeed, Indiana, to find out. Specifically, I wondered if that play on which Indiana's tempo burned Ray Taylor for a touchdown would have been affected. You know, this one:
That play was snapped exactly eleven seconds after the previous one ended. IE, it would have been legal, probably. Indiana may have had to wait a beat if the play clock took a second to reset.
Ten seconds is not many seconds. It may not even be enough to substitute confidently. If the rule does get passed it's probably not going to have the huge impact people fear it will.
It goes without saying that getting the rule change passed would be good for Michigan, which regards speed as a distasteful attempt to gain advantage.
It sucks you have to say this, but yeah you have to say this. Welp:
Goal No. 1 for Doug Nussmeier at Michigan? 'We're not going to go backwards'
May you succeed in this task, for all of our sanities. I'm encouraged by what this quote implies about Nussmeier's approach to data:
"There's a number of different things, you wish you can pinpoint one thing, but we need to get our players to understand how their success rate decreases with loss yardage plays," he said. "You look at statistical football, it doesn't add up. We've got to stay on schedule, within the sticks. We'll talk about that and it'll be a big part of the spring.
"We'll talk about our goals with down and distance, what we're looking for from each play yardage-wise. And what a negative play does to you as far as your percent chances to score and how our negative plays hurt our chances to score last year."
That sounds like a guy who's willing to look at stats to see if there's anything he can learn from them, which is a change of pace from the fancy-stats-are-for-losers approach of his predecessor.
Spartan health update. Izzo had the "feeling" Keith Appling was out a couple weeks as of February 9th, which would make his return for the Michigan game in some doubt. I mean, no doubt, really. But he might not be full go. Well, of course he won't be full go. No Michigan State player will be. For one, they'll be trying to cope with the emotional havoc associated with having a 14 year old call you names on twitter*.
I've had grown men (my players) in my office in tears because of what's being written.
The things these guys play through are insane. It's Iwo Jima out there.
Meanwhile, the Fist of Stupidity gets its pins removed on the 20th, which makes fist owner Branden Dawson hypothetically but not necessarily available for Michigan. Anyone ever had pins taken out of their hand? Would you be ready to play basketball three days after? Seems unlikely to me, but maybe they're really tiny or something.
*[First sentence of first comment: "Social Media is bringging this Country to its Knees."]
Etc.: Wildcats make preliminary argument to local labor relations board. Induction Burner! (It's not happening, Brian, stop trying to make it happen, Brian.) Andrew Sinelli, suddenly key defenseman. We may not have Oompa Loompa Reggie Cleveland, but we do now have the Basil Smotherman All Stars, which are comprised of the guys who sound the most like peers of the realm.
Penn State on the docket. Michigan goes to Happy Valley for their first-ever games against the nascent Nittany Lion program. As you might expect, Penn State is not particularly good. They're 4-17-1 on the season, 0-8 in the league, and have been outscored 35-13 in those eight games.
They've had some close outings, including one-goal losses to Minnesota and Boston College in January; they're still real bad. Not a huge surprise when they have zero seniors. Goaltending is a major issue, with both platoon-mates under .900; leading scorer Eric Scheid has a 10-5-15 line.
Michigan needs to sweep this series if they're going to maintain any hopes of winning the league. That door opened up a bit yesterday when Wisconsin beat Minnesota 2-1. Michigan can draw within six, or even three, points if they keep the Nittany Lions on the mat.
Hyman making a move. I'd pumped him up a bit earlier this year, but the points did not follow. Nowadays, though, Zach Hyman's centering a line that can be reasonably described as "his" and they are performing:
With Hyman centering the third line between freshman Tyler Motte and senior Luke Moffatt, the performance of all three players has quickly escalated. Hyman and his linemates combined for four goals in two games against Wisconsin last weekend and supplied high energy in the offensive zone.
Hyman scored one of those goals, a Kaleniecki special where he blasted in a rebound from the edge of the crease. He's been near-impossible to bump off the puck on the cycle all year and hopefully now he can maintain some scoring production over the rest of the season.
Firing, firing, firing. Via Five Key Plays, Zak Irvin making it rain:
Scouting Stauskas. NBA scouts, this video starts at 8:35. Before that it's just Golden Girls reruns.
It's time to eat (a low-carb diet high in protein). Derrick Green seems to have acquired the message about being smaller and nimbler, and is tweeting out pictures of how much he weighs.
my grind is never gone stop!! 220 by spring ball! Its time to eat 〽️ pic.twitter.com/qIghb24Ya6
— BaN€™〽️ (@DG2seven) February 5, 2014
May he reach 220 by spring and leave corpses in his wake in fall. But fun corpses!
Obligatory signing day articles. Did you know that not every highly-ranked recruit works out? Well, they don't. Also, sometimes low-ranked guys do. Now prepare for the parade of quotes from players and coaches saying they don't care about rankings. Are you prepared?
“I don’t put much stock in (the star-rating system),” Hoke said.
“I think it’s a joke,” Mueller said. “I believe there’s some talented guys, and it’s obvious to point out who the elite college football players are coming out of high school, but there are a lot of guys who get overlooked.
“I do not think it really does anything for any of the college coaches — the star system at least. The kids themselves and parents, it’s more of a headache."
Sorry. You cannot be prepared for that much quote. Anyway, annual article from newspaper about how recruiting rankings are not right every single time is matched by Matt Hinton's annual article in which he comes up with a new way to show that, yes, recruiting rankings are generally predictive.
It's a landslide. On the final count, the higher-ranked team according to the recruiting rankings won roughly two-thirds of the time, and every "class" as a whole had a winning record against every class ranked below it every single year. (The only exception came last year, when "three-star" teams came up short in head-to-head meetings with "one-star" teams. Otherwise, the hierarchy held across every line.) The gap on the field also widened with the gap in the recruiting scores: While "one-star" recruiting teams fared slightly better against blue-chip opponents than "two-star" teams, both groups combined managed a grand total of 19 wins over "five-star" opponents in 112 tries. Broadly speaking, the final results on the field broke along a straight line demarcated on signing day.
There are outliers, of course. Michigan is likely one in a bad direction, but Hinton only picked out those who are outperforming. They include most recent opponent Kansas State, which takes so many JUCOs they are near-impossible to rank reasonably, and Michigan State. Which sigh.
If you were really in charge you wouldn't have to keep saying you're in charge. This is, in fact, an article from this week:
Brady Hoke: I'm running Michigan football program, not Dave Brandon
This is from the press-conference-type substance. Speaking of that…
Usual PR debacles. The odd "press conference" that blew up into a bunch of finger-wagging once the Daily complained about not being there was less a press conference and more five requested one-on-one interviews crammed into a brief, mutual window:
“We did not hold a press conference (Monday),” Ablauf said Tuesday. “Five reporters requested to meet with Brady to discuss football topics, so we arranged this meeting about three weeks ago and set the meeting day and time over a week ago (prior to publication of the Daily story about Gibbons).”
But when five different reporters start tweeting out things Brady Hoke is saying, it looks like a press conference. And when you release the statement about the Gibbons thing that stands as the only thing you're going to say about that topic to five hand-picked reporters, that looks horrible.
Michigan actually did something about a sexual assault on campus that they didn't have to do—unlike, say, Florida State. That they managed to come out of that looking like they do is miraculously bad PR.
Unfortunately, it's not a surprise. This space has been sarcastically declaring "it's almost like the athletic department didn't think things through" jabs for the past year as one bad idea after another was rolled out and quickly rolled back. This is the culmination of the tiny debacles with noodles and seat cushions and the band going to Dallas and not preparing Mary Sue Coleman to speak in a situation with feedback. The same shitty attitude towards everyone outside of the Circle Of Trust from the past few years finally got applied to something important, and now Dave and company are receiving their just desserts.
Hopefully they'll learn something this time.
Uh-huh. The annual Detroit News Blue Chip list generally comes with at least one salty remark about Michigan or MSU, and this year's winner is MSU commit Nick Padla on Michigan:
They talked about tradition (but) I was thinking about the future.
The previous sentence also might have something to do with it:
They were recruiting me my 10th grade then kind of stopped.
Etc.: Enormous piles of NBA data could lead to a holy grail stat to end all stats, but it'll take supercomputers to produce it. Stat updates on Michigan's hockey recruits. Everything you ever wanted to know about Derrick Walton's efficiency leap.