also duty-free guys falling over and grabbing their shins
|WHAT||Michigan v. Michigan State|
|WHERE||Ann Arbor, MI|
January 26th, 2010
|THE LINE||Michigan +4.5*|
|TELEVISION||ESPN (O'Brien, Lavin, Andrews)|
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
Though Ohio State always has and always will be Michigan's #1 football rival, that isn't the case for the hoops team. It's the in-state Spartans that are the A-1 priority for just about every sport that doesn't take place on the gridiron. I guess that's what makes the Wolverines' futility against Michigan State hurt more than it seems like it should. It's no 0-6 record the last six time against the Buckeyes in football, but losing 16 of the last 19 to MSU on the basketball court isn't a stroll through the roses either. I guess it's appropriate that in the Free Press's photo gallery from the last 24 games, even the most recent Michigan win is represented by a picture that makes their efforts look futile against the Green and White Machine (H/T UMHoops):
So tonight, in front of a Maize-Out crowd that will be populated by more than few Spartan fans, the Wolverines get just their third chance to knock off MSU in the John Beilein era. Michigan is struggling through an all-too-familiar disappointing season, while Michigan State chugs along on their annual track to a top seed in the NCAA tournament.
With Manny back in the fold after his suspension and Kelvin Grady re-joining the scout team to simulate Kalin Lucas in practice (for all of 35 minutes yesterday) team chemistry may be iffy. This is compounded the leadership void all year. It's tough to say what to expect from this Michigan team, though DeShawn Sims said Manny will give one of the best performances of his career. Harris has responded to previous benchings with scoring outbursts, whether it was the Iowa overtime last year or large chunks of the Indiana game this year.
The Spartans are a typical Tom Izzo unit that crashes the boards and running the floor to get much of their offense. They also play stingy defense, which has led to the best efficiency margin in the Big Ten. Michigan is at #5, speaking to their improvement over the year, but still well behind MSU. The Spartans are at +15.5; Michigan is just +3.2.
The Spartans have only lost three games this season, but all have been away from home. They fell to Florida in Atlantic City and lost to North Carolina and Texas on their respective home floors. Michigan is probably as good as those teams, right?
So, yeah, Michigan State is a really tough out. They haven't lost in the Big Ten, though they've yet to play in some of the tougher conference venues (yes, I'm well aware Crisler isn't one, especially for the Spartans).
Junior guard Kalin Lucas was struggling somewhat at the beginning of the year, and even started one game off the bench, but he is back where he was last year, playing the majority of available minutes as he shoots, slashes, and dishes for MSU. 6-6 sophomore forward Draymond Green leads the Spartans in offensive rating and field goal percentage, along with defensive rebounding percentage. Senior forward Raymar Morgan, at 6-8, is MSU's other big rebounder. Senior guards Durrell Summers and Chris Allen also play more than 60% of available minutes for State, and Allen is a big downtown threat.
This is a good team of the basket-ed ball, methinks.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
|Michigan v. Michigan State: National Ranks|
|Category||Michigan Rank||State Rank||Advantage|
|Mich eFG% v. MSU Def eFG%||177||48||SS|
|Mich Def eFG% v. MSU eFG%||168||43||SS|
|Mich TO% v. MSU Def TO%
|Mich Def TO% v. MSU TO%||67||187||SS|
|Mich OReb% v. MSU DReb%
|Mich DReb% v. MSU OReb%||225||9||SSS|
|Mich FTR v. MSU Opp FTR
|Mich Opp FTR v. MSU FTR
|Mich AdjO v. MSU AdjD||82||26||S|
|Mich AdjD v. MSU AdjO||46||23||S|
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
These numbers are ugly for Michigan, with advantages only in holding onto the rock—something that has not been in evidence of late as the team descends into an Amakerian turnover-fest—and not sending the opponent to the foul line. For both teams, eFG% is directly correlated to efficiency on its respective side of the floor, and though Michigan's has been trending upward (along with their overall efficiency on either side of the floor - those season-long numbers may be worth exploring at a later date), Michigan State still has advantages in each of more than 100 places in the national ranks.
For Michigan to have a chance in this game, DeShawn Sims is going to have to perform like a superstar, which, thankfully, he has been doing a lot of late. The story was similar against Purdue, and even without Manny Harris, the Wolverines were able to keep it close. A hot-shooting day by any of Michigan's outside snipers could tilt the tide in favor of the maize-and-blue.
HOWEVA, Ken Pomeroy likes Michigan State by three points, Vegas likes them by four-and-a-half, and I think those numbers are even a little too kind to Michigan. I guess that may be attributable to the Wolverines' basketball team becoming a much better version of the John L. Smith football teams: any individual game can end with a wild swing one way or another, but at the end of the year, you have a good idea what the final record is going to be. Sure, it isn't 5-7 for this hoops squad (they'll probably sneak into the NIT), but it would take one of the surprising upsets of the year to knock of Michigan State. Come in, wear maize, be loud, and hope for the best.
The Only Colors previews the game, and KJ does more hoping for than predicting an MSU win. Official site release on Manny's return to the team. The Big Ten Geeks study how Michigan State ripped Minnesota's heart out. Story behind that awful new logo can be found hyah. Dylan previews at UMHoops.
Historian! Haven't had a new one in a while from the great archivist of the internets. 1981 Minnesota; check it out if only for the totally sweet introduction:
Assorted Kiffybits. Have received some heat in the comments for my blanket assertion yesterday that Lane Kiffin was in some way responsible for the MASSIVE INSTUTUTION-WIDE CHEATFEST that USC undertook through the aughts, but I can't really understand why. In a time of major NCAA trouble you fire everyone and let the rest of D-I sort 'em out. Permanently cutting ties with anyone in a position to have observed or participated in NCAA violations is a bare minimum standard when you get hit with major sanctions. And USC isn't just bringing back any old assistant coach, they're bringing in a guy currently under investigation. It's indefensible.
The Michigan equivalent would be putting Perry Watson on Tommy Amaker's staff, or hiring Magee after firing Rodriguez because the NCAA came back with a major infraction from the practice stuff. Either move would be totally beyond the pale.
Side note: I don't really blame Kiffin for leaving, and think Tennessee's reaction has been hilarious. Kiffin didn't have any control over when the USC job opened up. Meanwhile, the chaotic scene in Knoxville when he left was testament to the college football fan's ability to delude himself about the guy in charge*. If I was a Volunteer fan this would be the happiest day in 14 months. Tennessee got off easy, and can now hire someone with a resume stronger than "hot wife, reptile brain."
This week in witch trials. Meanwhile, Kiffin's departure for his dream job has caused no end of hysterical reactions in the media. Sally Jenkins's painful "Chucky" comparison is the most tortured column—hiring Kiffin is easier than "hiring someone less illustrious"—I've come across, but there are many others. Here's old friend Jemele Hill "bringing the real"—seriously those were the words on the screen—about the situation:
Since college football fans are paying top dollar to attend these games and boosters are signing blank checks to bolster their athletic teams, they need reassurance they are supporting not only a winning program, but also a brand.
That's why college football programs have gladly backed up the Brink's truck for Bobby Petrino, Rich Rodriguez, Brian Kelly and Nick Saban -- all top-notch coaches whose combined lies could outweigh an ocean liner.
Leaving aside Rich Rodriguez, who has had all of two jobs in a decade, why does poor Brian Kelly get lumped in here? Kelly spent most of the last month of the season going out of his way to provide rambling non-answers to questions about Notre Dame just so he wouldn't get stuck having said something untrue. When the time came his public statement about it was "I am listening to Notre Dame." Even Rodriguez—less of a job-hopper than anyone on that list—issued a quote about being around West Virginia for a long time after his Alabama flirtation. Kelly walked around with a sign that said "Please Hire Me Notre Dame" for two months and still can't win.
Meanwhile, Jemele Hill jumped at the opportunity to bring the real at ESPN instead of hanging out at the Free Press. Physicians, heal thyselves.
*(Over/under on Ohio State blogs that repost this sentence for lol: 4.)
Correct. Michigan's former players are always asked about Michigan's current coach and most of them have the same answer. It acknowledges the difficulty in transition and expresses frustration at the current state of the program. Depending on how the phrase it, this can come off as attack or support. They're all basically saying the same thing—let's win this year plsthx—but they seem different. Victor Hobson shades towards the support side of things:
As a Michigan fan, it’s easy for me to sit back and say he is not taking the program in the right direction. As a football player, though, it’s easy for me to see that Rich has a different approach to winning than Lloyd Carr, which requires different personnel. Patience is the key to allowing the program to blossom once again. The dilemma is that Michigan is an extremely prideful university that isn’t used to losing, so I don’t know if that patience is going to happen.
South Florida. It's not quite official yet, but the word from a couple days ago that Skip Holtz was likely to be the guy at ECU is nearing it by the minute:
Holtz was contacted by USF athletic director Doug Woolard about the job Sunday and interviewed with USF officials Tuesday in Orlando.
A source close to East Carolina told the Fayetteville (N.C.) Observer on Wednesday night that a deal between Holtz and USF was close but not done yet. "But they're moving in that direction,'' the source said.
A deal could come as early as today; it sounds like this is all but inevitable. This leaves Calvin Magee at Michigan. Magee did talk to USF, but I don't think he interviewed formally.
They're back. Some of them. Michigan State's PREWB appears to be resolved by a number of additional departures from the team. RB Ashton Leggett, DE Jamiihr Williams, LB Brynden Trawick, and DT Ishmyl Johnson are out. All the receivers are back, as are a couple guys you've never heard of. The end result here is fairly satisfying: six guys out the door, including a couple probable starters next year, is a stiff price to pay. The other guys are "reinstated" and "on the team right now," though there remains the distant possibility that legal action will cause some of the other guys to pick up further suspensions (lasting, of course, until next year's Michigan game).
Meanwhile, State is getting Greg Jones back for his senior year—bad NFL draft grade?—so they've got that going for them.
Crater omission. Doctor Saturday ran down the top five "sharpest turning moments" of 2009 and touched on Notre Dame taking out Charlie Weis and Ohio State picking it up after Purdue. This guy was genuinely surprised to not see "Roy Roundtree tackled at one yard line." That's 90% blinkered homerism, but it certainly seemed that few teams took as radical a U-turn as Michigan did on that fateful goal line stand. They went from a team making totally satisfactory progress to a smoking crater hosting a civil war in the course of one replay review.
Etc.: Apparently the ridiculous Rodriguez-to-Tennessee rumors were serious enough for Angelique to debunk them with the help of RR's agent. RR talks to Andrea Adelson about 2010—bowl promised! Bacon runs down the top sports moments of the decade. UMHoops runs down a bunch of stuff; most interesting is that the Big Ten is the least free-throw happy of the BCS conferences. Also for God's sake don't look at the scatterplot.
Huh. Tom Dienhart's taken his "get anonymous coaches to say bitchy stuff" act on to Rivals, this time breaking down the pending SEC championship game. You probably don't care much about the particulars, but I found this section pretty interesting given that much-loved former Michigan QB coach Scot Loeffler was just put in charge of the Tebow Child:
QUARTERBACK: Our staff thought Tim Tebow has gotten worse as a quarterback from last year to this year. Everyone talks about his mechanics and dropping the football; he drops it lower this year and has worse mechanics. I don't know what it is. He's still making throws and doing some things, but he just doesn't seem comfortable back there. I don't know if it's because of the concussion or what. But teams are making him sit in the pocket longer and throw the football, and sometimes he gets a little skittish back there.
Probably doesn't mean much given Loeffler's extended, wildly successful tenure at Michigan, but I found it interesting.
Is that your final answer? The internet would be a far less chaotic and rumor-stricken place if folks followed one guideline when citing inside information: never link to a place for the first time, or link to a place you've never heard of, because it's got a hot rumor.
Why do I mention this? Because of this:
Brian Kelly will be next Notre Dame football coach
Cincinnati coach to take helm of Fighting Irish, sources reveal to IrishCentral
Brian Kelly will be the next head football coach at the University of Notre Dame, informed sources tell IrishCentral.
The source, who is a well-informed person of influence at Notre Dame, says the Cincinnati coach is the preferred choice for the job, and that he is expected to eventually sign a deal.
Kelly is expected to see out the season with his Bowl Championship Series-bound team, and then report for duty at South Bend.
There is no there there. Kelly is "expected" to "eventually" be the coach by some random guy. By this standard, Michigan is currently coached by Kirk Ferentz, Greg Schiano, and Rich Rodriguez. This site has no track record—it started in March. It talked to one guy who says Kelly is the eventual choice in a month, which in coaching search years is sometime after the Sun engulfs the Earth. And it spreads like wildfire. Why this dubious rumor and not others? Other than the newspaper website template—a rinky-dink version of one—I got nothin'.
Kelly, for his part, was less wishy-washy about staying at Cincinnati on the radio than he was at a press conference yesterday:
“I’m staying, man. I’m staying,” Kelly said on the show. “Why would I go? It’s always about staying, first. First and foremost."
No, I don't believe him either. Unfortunately.
Very modern. Greg Dooley has an interview with Angelique Chengelis up at GBW, and as a guy who runs a college football poll I found this snapshot of the AP poll's assemblage interesting:
MVictors: When you say ‘send in’, do you submit an online form or do you email something in like a Word document or a spreadsheet or something?
Angelique: I just send in an email, ranking the teams 1-25. I have a couple different email addresses that I send it to and that’s what I’ve always done. You’d think it’d be more formal, wouldn’t you?
PREWB! Yes, obligated to mention that after unusual stonewalling on the part of the local police department, eight Spartans were "indefinitely" suspended, including starters BJ Cunningham, Mark Dell, and Chris Rucker for the 2009 Posse Roundup & Engineer/Woman Beatdown. Rucker's a cornerback and in the state of Michigan all members of the secondary not named Woolfolk or Warren are interchangeably horrible, but Cunningham and Dell are excellent receivers. BONUS: there are five more guys yet to be identified—Rob Parker thinks they're all Kirk Cousins.
KJ at The Only Colors wants everyone gone permanently, but that seems steep if the kids in question didn't get violent themselves. They might have tagged along for laughs and saw Glenn Winston go all Grimsrud on them (clip NSF kiddies):
Mark Dell might just have some mechanical engineer's brain all over his car. While you have to expect that when you go anywhere with Winston, I guess, anyone without a prior incident shouldn't necessarily see their career end if the tape shows them to be largely innocent. Hefty suspensions lasting past the Michigan game next year are mandatory, though.
The thing about this thing is: I thought that giving Winston the relative slap on the wrist (essentially a four-game suspension) he got for an act far worse than many that see players drummed out of school entirely—see poor Larry Harrison—was a mistake at the time, as did a lot of other people including Spartan fans. If you want to give Dantonio the benefit of the doubt, fine. Coaches have a lot more information in these situations than we do. I find the irony of his pride before the fall delicious, though, and reserve the right to whoop it up after two years in which Michigan's coach has been portrayed as an inbred hick with no ethics.
Etc.: Phil Brabbs is dyeing his hair blue before it all falls out. DOMINATE. Rivals goes stunningly in depth with a geographic breakdown of recruiting stars and NFL draftees.
Last year, Glenn Winston put a hockey player in the hospital, costing him a whole year, and injured a second bystander. Neither victim did anything to provoke the violence, and Winston was fortunate to plea-bargain himself down to a misdemeanor and six months in jail. Mike Rosenberg on that:
Plus, people forget this: Winston was convicted of a misdemeanor. If anything, his sentence (six months in jail) was excessive for a misdemeanor. So I understood why Dantonio reinstated Winston this summer. Yes, it looks awful now. But it made some sense this summer.
"Excessive for a misdemeanor." Rosenberg is downplaying a scary, dangerously violent incident because he doesn't understand that a misdemeanor basically means the jail sentence can't be longer than a year. Six months in jail might be excessive for pot possession. It doesn't seem excessive for endangering someone's playing career.
Remember that Rosenberg wrote an "I'm just sayin'" column after Justin Feagin's situation, citing Rodriguez's decision to recruit linebacker Pat Lazear as evidence Rodriguez doesn't care about the character of his players:
The fact that Rodriguez was recruiting Feagin to West Virginia is telling because Rodriguez took considerable heat for some of his recruiting choices in Morgantown. Most noteworthy: Rodriguez signed linebacker Pat Lazear to a letter of intent even though Lazear had been accused of orchestrating an armed robbery of a Smoothie King store.
"That was a situation that was cleared up before he left high school," Rodriguez said Monday.
Well, that depends on your definition of "cleared up." Lazear pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit robbery. He was sentenced to 10 days in jail and received a 10-year suspended sentence for his part in the robbery. He also was sentenced to 30 days of house arrest and 150 hours of community service. And in a previous incident, Lazear had been found guilty of using a stolen credit card.
I guess you could say his situation was "cleared up."
Lazear has not been in trouble at West Virginia and is on the academic honor roll. That same column cites Feagin's high school coach saying that Feagin hadn't been in trouble there only to dismiss that. Rosenberg's thrust is that Rodriguez should have known better than to recruit Justin Feagin, and should never have gone near a guy with nothing on his record other than a dropped misdemeanor and some traffic tickets. If Rodriguez didn't know Feagin was a bad guy, it was because he didn't care to know. The upshot: Rodriguez is unethical.
Here's a similar conversation in the Winston case:
MARK DANTONIO: Are there any issues with this Winston guy?
MARK DANTONIO: Well, he beat up two innocent people, putting one of them in the hospital.
MARK DANTONIO: What's that? I can't hear you. You must be breaking up.
MARK DANTONIO: We're not talking on a cell phone. I am you. We're having a schizophrenic episode. You're talking to yourself.
MARK DANTONIO: I am very public about my faith!
And yet reinstating this guy "makes some sense." The double standard could not be clearer.
Is there any question that Rosenberg would be calling for Rodriguez's job if 15-20 Michigan players had beaten the hell out of innocent bystanders for the second time in two years? Michigan State has had 20% of its entire team involved in unprovoked violence against other students for two consecutive years.
Rosenberg can couch his eminently reasonable opinion in eminently reasonable columnist terms, but the bias is screaming. Mark Dantonio's got a hell of a jaw and a bible on his desk. He's also in charge of a bunch of thugs, and got a Michigan State student injured and, likely, his university sued. This is enough for Rosenberg to gently suggest that Dantonio might need to get his team under control—oh, really? Meanwhile, Rodriguez correctly judging the character of Pat Lazear and immediately dealing with the Feagin situation is enough for the "win at all costs" headline.
This is the fair and balanced person the Free Press thought they'd have investigate the Michigan football program.
More about this on the message board.
Site note: remember how I said the blog would be off Thursday and Friday? Psyche. Tim will be around posting up basketball content. I'm taking a couple days off, but the Old Spice Classic will get its due around here.
Hey, thanks for the timely assist. The AP follows up the UV from yesterday that mocked Terry Foster's baseless blog post about Rodriguez's lack job security—the theory being that big money donors would wake up two weeks from now, find out Michigan is 5-7, and revolt—with a few timely quotes from uber-donor Stephen Ross:
"If he has a bad year next year, he'll have a lot more pressure," Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross told The Associated Press, standing near midfield before the Wolverines lost to Ohio State on Saturday to finish 5-7. "I don't think he has anything to worry about right now in my mind." …
"People take shots at him for whatever reason," Ross said. "Some people like to beat people when they're down. I think he's a great man and he's been a winner wherever he's been.
"It's just that a lot of people don't like change. I think it will all work out."
Dollars to donuts some hack picks up on "doesn't have anything to worry about right now" and spins it into a grim tale of a pre-2010 firing. Hell, this very article manages to quote Mary Sue Coleman's explicit statement of support for not just this year but next…
"I don't think it's fair to coaches to bring them in and say, `We're going to give you three years,'" Coleman told The Journal early this month. "When Tommy Amaker came in, we stuck with him for six years. It just wasn't going to work; it wasn't the right fit. But it wasn't a rushed decision."
…and deploy this sentence:
One person can end the speculation about Rodriguez's future and she has declined to do it.
IT'S IN YOUR ARTICLE. AAAARGH. LOOK AT THIS HEADLINE
An annual tradition, now with glass houses.
Michigan State's now-annual Posse Roundup & Engineer/Woman Beatdown was moved up this year:
Witnesses and students involved in the incident said a group of 15 to 20 men, who some described as MSU football players, stormed into the dormitory and hit and injured about seven students, some of them women.
Brent Mitchell, a communication junior who said he was sent to Lansing’s Sparrow Hospital after being punched in the face, said some of the men wore ski masks, but others were recognized as football team members.
“I walked up and said, ‘It isn’t worth it.’ A guy with dreadlocks hit me and in the scuffle slapped, hit females to get them out of the way,” Mitchell said.
It'll be interesting to see the reaction of the Detroit media to this since it seems explicitly caused by Dantonio's limp-wristed response to last year's PREWB. There is a straight line drawn from last year's incident to Dantonio's refusal to levy any serious sanctions, including on the guy who spent the summer in jail and became the starting running back, to mechanical engineering students being terrorized:
Mechanical engineering sophomore Andrew Green said he saw one of the men hit another student on his way out. “He was coming downstairs and looked at him and punched him in the jaw,” Green said.
“There was some medic treating this kid sitting in lounge area,” [journalism freshman Mitch Lex] said. “It looked like he had a baseball in his cheek.”
Even better: none of these kids had done anything to the football team. Like the Saint Patrick's Day Nerd Massacre, the target was not in the area of the violence. Posse fail.
Say what you want about Justin Feagin, but Feagin was not on the Michigan roster for a millisecond after Rodriguez found out about his cocaine blues, and if the sexual assault case against anonymous 18-year-old proves founded he won't be on the team either. If Dantonio doesn't come down on another incident where a quarter of his team roams around beating up innocent students, we'll get to see the power of public relations in full bloom. What will it take for reality to overcome preconceived notions of Rodriguez as an outlaw and Dantonio a saint?
And now for the best reason to mention this, via the comments of the above article:
If you ever find yourself being attacked by an MSU football player, just yell “Wheel Route” and you’ll quickly find yourself being left all alone.
The RCMB has been here.
Grist. Notre Dame is about to undertake a coaching search and some guy who wrote some book also wrote a letter to some newspaper about what sort of coach Notre Dame should hire next. It might be of interest given Michigan's current situation:
When Notre Dame hires an experienced, successful, major college football head coach, the success rate in turning the Irish into national champions is 100 percent. When Notre Dame hires anybody else, the success rate is 14 percent.
You read that correctly. Since 1940, every single time Notre Dame has hired a college football head coach who has taken multiple teams to major bowls and achieved Top 10 national rankings, he has coached the Irish to at least one national championship and has posted regular Top 10 finishes in the national rankings. Every single time.
This neatly excludes Willingham and is kind of a weird, hacky metric. Lou Holtz hadn't taken multiple teams to major bowls unless my perception of mid-70s bowl games is way off and the Peach, Liberty, and/or Bluebonnet bowls were big deals. So the "multiple teams" metric is kind of weird. Please note that Brian Kelly does not meet this standard and should be avoided at all costs, kthx.
Relevant for Michigan is that coaches who have established major successful programs have been successful at Notre Dame, and this is likely to hold true at Michigan given enough time.
Etc.: Jimmah! No! I agree with the WLA: if you make a list of "things Notre Dame has going for it" Clausen is in the top three with Floyd and Tate; you should probably start your guys to punch list at #4. The Big Ten basketball resume picks up a couple of nice wins with Purdue beating Tennessee and Wisconsin taking out Illinois; does Iowa get half a win for being tied with Texas at halftime? Yes? No. UMHoops gets Creighton's pulse. Henri, anglicized, is in a movie.
The rotate. Illinois will look to the future on Saturday by rotating in redshirt freshman Jacob Charest, who you can see making sweet love to your whole body with his mind to the right. Hey, baby, Jacob Charest would like to know if you like emo bangs and nonchalant poses from his trip to North Korea. Yeah, baby, Jacob Charest wore his Illini uniform to Pyongyang Stadium. Because Illini up, that's why.
Charest is a 6'4" pro-style QB out of North Carolina who was a middling three star a couple years back. When Juice got pulled (again) against Purdue, Charest came in and did this:
Charest made his debut Saturday, playing in three series while going 4 of 8 for 52 yards. Zook said he was impressed with the way Charest threw downfield.
Read: "Zook said he was impressed that Charest had better accuracy than a random number generator."
So… good or bad? I guess you'd always rather be going against a team that's trying to find a quarterback and is on their third attempt—Eddie McGee is now working at wide receiver—of the season. And Williams was beyond terrifying last year against Michigan. On the other hand: Michigan's clear weakness this year is the secondary, and anyone more capable of taking advantage of that secondary than Williams is bad.
It probably won't matter since Illinois's line is so terrible: the Illini are #112 in sacks allowed despite a below-average number of passes. (212; NCAA average is 228. So it's not a huge outlier or anything; the point is that their stats aren't distorted by a lot of late-game passing because they're bad.)
Bonus: Arrelious Benn has been fighting an ankle sprain since the first game of the year and played with a shoulder sprain against Purdue. He'll play this weekend but is not 100%.
Ortmann carries around a phonebooth on his back. Via Rittenberg, this table of woe from before the Penn State game:
Suboptimal, and probably worse after Forcier got little help from his receivers. The pocket stuff isn't quite that grim as the table implies since this only accounts for throw of over ten yards—I was in the midst of firing off an email suggesting those numbers had to be wrong when I finally understood the qualifier—but, yeah, pretty grim.
This is a confirmation of a number of this: Forcier's bad in the pocket, the receivers aren't helping out much, and so forth and so on. Michigan should really slant its playcalling towards Lloyd-style conservatism, which only maddens when you're running around with a senior Tom Brady, not sophomore John Navarre.
Mumble mumble bands thing. Michigan State may have lost Saturday, but they won the halftime show:
The Numa Numa song is kind of awesome arranged for marching band, isn't it?
I'm still not sure what the MMB played, as I couldn't hear 3/4ths of it. Was it supposed to be four different thematic versions of the Victors? The one I heard had some vague Victors-y parts but it didn't sound like the fight song itself. I was confused by it.
He descended on a cloud and grumbled out some grumbles for us, we used it to season the tacos. Lloyd Carr, perhaps prompted by Rick Leach's intemperate outburst on WTKA a week or two ago, has emerged from the Fortress of Solitude to deliver his benediction:
"Rich is a young guy, (and) he's got a great background for such a young guy," Carr said during his interview with Frank Beckmann and Jim Brandstatter. "What we're seeing here offensively throughout this season is a great thing for the future of Michigan football.
"The transition a year ago you could expect (the struggles) because what they were looking for in a quarterback. Certainly what we have here is exciting. I'm excited for the future." …
"I've had a lot of conversations with Rich Rodriguez down through the last 18, 20 months, and I told him from the beginning if he needed me for any reason, just call me," Carr said. "I did not want to be a coach who's at practice and hanging around and answering questions from the media about what I saw. I didn't think that was good for Rich or our program."
This will slightly staunch the internet paranoia, but only slightly. As always, I wish to avoid this topic as thoroughly as possible. I have zero credible information about it, and learned during the coaching search that different factions can have incredibly different versions of reality.
On the notice. Chengelis's article on the import of this notice Michigan received from the NCAA starts off by broaching the possibility of major infractions but the end of it puts the event that just transpired in context:
Experts said that might well not be a major development.
"I think this is just a natural sequence of events that should occur when you have numerous former and current players making allegations that there have been rule violations, in this case, practices too long," said Rick Karcher, a sports law expert at the Florida Coastal School of Law.
"It's just a first step."
The next step would either be a determination by the NCAA that the accusations are baseless, or a formal "Notice of Allegations" detailing precisely what is supported by evidence.
It appears this is something that was obviously going to happen, and since NCAA investigators have been working with Michigan the past couple months it seems like this is a letter telling Michigan what it already knows. Basically status quo.
Just 40 more years and they'll get the hang of it.
Charts. A diarist at Black Shoe Diaries diarist is rivaling Misopogon with his charts and interesting research. His focus is on Big Ten passer efficiency over the last decade, with a special focus on Penn State that won't be surprising to anyone who's watched PSU play over the last decade. PSU QBs were consistently horrible except for that one year Mills had before his arm fell off until Darryl Clark broke all of our preconceived notions about JayPa. A couple more general takeaways:
- The last few years Big Ten QBs have dropped off a cliff, with this year a bounce-back.
- Passer efficiency continues to skyrocket. Check out some meh QBs of recent and not-so-recent vintage:
Approximately same rank, 12 extra passer efficiency points for the guy slightly worse.
That latter one is a reason to relax pass interference rules, I think. Another reason: right now they are arbitrary.
Etc.: Tempo-free stats make the NBA bigtime. Florida is the current possessor of a hypothetical college football title belt dating back to the first game ever played; Michigan is an eight-time hypothetical champ, most recently in 2004 when they beat… Purdue?