mark huyge

Countdown: 8.

Son, never throw a punch at a redwood.
Tom Selleck

Second amendment say what. Borges:

"We'll be gunning more than we've ever gunned — than I've ever gunned," Borges said. "We use a lot of shotgun, but we're tailoring the gun more to his skills. I'm not going to reveal any trade secrets here, but we're going to use Denard the way he can best exploit the defense."

And there was much rejoicing.

He's done it. Thanks to user Chunkums here's a glimpse of Borges running the speed option at Auburn back in the day. It's at 26 seconds:

Dollars to donuts this is happening.

Are you a woman, a bicyclist, a baby, very sweaty, or all of the above? This is your lucky day if you've been interested in some MGoShirts. Underground has a limited-time store up with women's, kids, and toddler sizes plus wicking shirts, hoodies, and assorted exotics. Check it out. Order by the 30th.

Tomorrow they'll announce Dantonio's hiring. The RCMB had a thread featuring user photoshop mockups of the Pro Combat uniforms everybody will always wear against Michigan forever. One of them featured the RCMB logo on the helmet. So of course this happened the next day at the Free Press:

Someone associated with the "Downtown Coaches Club" emailed it out, so that's obviously happening. I hope the State spokesman was under 40 and therefore far more aware of the RCMB than Steve Schrader.

Chagrined by their mistake, the next day the Free Press reported that TE Evan Jones had committed to State. That's accurate. It also happened three months ago.

This is probably just me. Does Darrell Funk give off kind of a Gary Busey vibe?

Just me? Okay. As far as actual news, Huyge is holding off Schofield; Schofield is actually practicing at RG(?) as well.

Bring out yer dead conferences. The CCHA has ceased to be, or has set a point in the future where it will cease to be:

After two rounds of talks, the WCHA is ready to accept five CCHA schools into the conference, sources have indicated to CHN.

The switch from the CCHA to the WCHA is pending each individual schools' Board of Trustees approving the move. Announcements will thus come piecemeal, with the first ones potentially coming as early as Friday.

The WCHA has given the CCHA schools are 30-day window in which to officially accept the invitation. At least three CCHA schools are certain to accept — Lake Superior State, Ferris State and Alaska.

Bowling Green and Western are both waiting around to see what Notre Dame does. If ND joins the NCHC—we really need a sarcastic nickname for them—Western hopes to tag along. If Notre Dame goes to Hockey East, both BG and WMU hope to get their faces kicked in for all eternity in the NCHC. That latter scenario would mean the powers of the WCHA broke it up so they could add Miami, WMU, and BGSU.

I'm a little disappointed this is the way it's playing out. I would rather have seen the CCHA bolster itself with the four Atlantic Hockey schools that were interested in moving and kept conferences relatively small so expansion would be an attractive option. It's still a lot better than it was before the Big Ten formed.

At least get your lame political cracks right. Via the MZone, here's this guy:

I thought Ann Arbor was supposed to be full of liberal hippies. Apparently it is also really into sharia.

Etc.: Catlab returns. Trippy. I think I'm in love with Dana Holgorsen: "Holgorsen's idea of balance is making sure a bunch of people get the ball, whether by pass or by run, and then get a bunch of yards." Frank the Tank's latest on conference realignment. The Hoover Street rag is irritated that Michigan is phasing out the seal in favor of the block M. Holdin' The Rope explores the file on Nate Brink.

[Sorry about the delay. Internet issues this morning.]

To continue a theme on Michigan's suddenly mediocre run game: dude, it was all Purdue's cover zero approach. Here's a play that's beautifully blocked all around and still ends up with meh results. It's Michigan's final drive of the first half; the Wolverines have the ball first and ten on their own 43.

Standard three wide from Michigan; Purdue moves their nickelback over the slot receiver and has their safeties in that no-mans-land between deep and shallow:

 

By the snap they're still in that shallow range; the deeper guy is only seven yards off the LOS—that's where WVU's stack keeps its middle linebacker. Michigan's going to run a stretch:

 

As usual the key block is the one in the center of the field, where Schilling and Molk are working to seal the playside DT. you can see above that the playside DE is not slanting inside this time and will get kicked out. Michigan is doing something weird, though: they are blocking the backside end. They've done this a lot this year but in almost all cases they've done it on inside zone plays where a cutback is one of the main ways to gain yards. On a stretch this guy is usually set free to fruitlessly chase.

At the mesh point Robinson gets contain from the safety no jk lol linebacker and hands off. Molk has already gotten across the playside DT, who is dead:

That is a dead DT. With Lewan getting a kickout Smith will have a hole to cut into. Schilling releases downfield and gets a good block on the playside LB; Koger heads outside and pulls the other safety no jk lol lb with him. Hurray yards?

Yes, but issue in the middle of the field wearing #45:

This linebacker is the guy Huyge would have released into if he wasn't blocking Kerrigan. He's totally unblocked and can run down the line as Smith zooms past dead DT and Omameh drives the backside guy yards downfield; Schilling and Koger have picked up eliminating blocks on the other LBs.

Through the hole, Smith is one on one with the LB…

…who tackles.

The end result is a play where all six Michigan offensive linemen get blocks between good and great… and Michigan gets six yards.

Video:

Object lesson type objects:

• Generic stretch stuff. This is another example of how the stretch usually works when it works: Molk seals that DT, Lewan kicks the DE, Schilling releases into a linebacker, a lead blocker takes another one outside, and running back hits a big gap.
• Cover zero problem reinforcement. In this particular instance blocking that backside end is a bad idea, but with eight guys in the box Michigan knows they'll leave contain to a safety and send Kerrigan tearing down the line. If Smith has to cut behind Molk he will be swallowed at the LOS. There's a nonzero chance Kerrigan manages to grab Smith from behind even if the blocking plays out like this. Michigan has a choice between leaving the MLB free or leaving a guy they know will crash down the LOS free. In this particular instance getting a block on the MLB, even a crappy-push-by-the-RB-forcing-a-cutback block, is a touchdown unless Smith gets run down from behind.

  The fundamental math is still the same: there is going to be an unblocked guy in the box and Purdue can slant and shift its defense in an effort to get the ballcarrier to an unblocked guy. On the previous example Purdue did this effectively; here they hang on by the skin of their teeth but do get it done.

• Weather allows cover zero. BWS did a post on Michigan's only successful gotcha play, the fourth quarter completion to Kevin Koger that jump-started Michigan's final touchdown drive and was so wide open Denard could throw a wobbly underthrown duck and still have it easily complete. The pass on that play and about a dozen other hilariously misthrown balls by all four quarterbacks goes a long way towards justifying Michigan's resignation to pounding its head into the wall repeatedly. I'm sure Michigan won't do this again—not that they'll have an opportunity against Wisconsin and Ohio State, two teams that won't run cover zero much if at all.

I THINK I MIGHT BE EXCITED THIS IS 9000 WORDS

NEW! So I've finally decided I'm going to try to hand out +/- for run blocking, which has been a sore spot when it comes to numbers since UFR started. With Michigan running 75% of the time against UConn, I can't just go by gut feel anymore. I've got enough of a handle on it to at least give it a try. I'm adopting the same sort of +/- format Genuinely Sarcastic uses, because that seems like a good idea, and hope he continues doing his version since different eyes will see different things.

Also, Denard Robinson demands some changes to the way UFR does passing. I'm adding a new SCR indicator for a scramble that is clearly a good idea given Robinson's speed and the down and distance situation. A four yard run on third and fifteen is still a TA.

Formation note: UConn didn't seem to do much, if any substitution. By the end of the game it was clear that they essentially had two defenses, a one-high formation…

 

…and a two high formation…

…and that the only thing that changed other than that was the alignment of the linebackers based on the position of the WRs—when Michigan went to trips a linebacker lined up over the #2 WR. There was a slight variant of the one-high defense deployed when Michigan went to two TE sets that saw one of the linebackers drop down to the line and the others slide over; I called that "Base 5-3," FWIW. As always, nomenclature is an attempt to be clear about what I'm talking about, not a guarantee of fidelity.

Michigan didn't do anything too exciting except debut this formation I called "Shotgun H-back":

Here Martell Webb is lined up as a quasi fullback; usually he would pull to the backside and block the crashing DE, who always crashed on a… wait for it… scrape exchange.

Substitution note: Nothing you don't already know. No substitution on the OL except for Molk's momentary cramp. Robinson and Grady were rotating in at slot frequently even before Roundtree went out, with Robinson seemingly ahead of Grady when it came to PT. Koger and Webb rotated, with Webb more of a blocker and Koger a receiver. Jeremy Jackson got in some spot duty; Je'Ron Stokes did not see the field.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M4	1	10	I-Form Twins	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Shaw	6
Basically an iso designed to go just outside the TE; Koger and Dorrestein double and drive back the playside DE, with Koger popping off on the linebacker scraping over the top. McColgan has the short side corner; all these blocks are very well done. Unfortunately Omameh(-1) is overpowered by the DT and lets him into the backfield, forcing Shaw to bounce it outside. This robs Koger of the angle on the MLB and he has a free shot at Shaw for about one; Shaw(+1) spins through the tackle and gets six.
RUN+		Koger, Dorrestein, Shaw						RUN-	Omameh(2)
M10	2	4	I-Form Twins	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout hitch	Stonum	7
UConn walks down the strong safety, so the corner on Stonum gives him an eight yard cushion. The quick hitch is open and Robinson hits him in the numbers. Pass was late and from the stands this looked a little dodgy--there will be a couple additional plays like this--but you can't ask for more when it comes to accuracy and velocity. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M17	1	10	Shotgun Trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run?	Scramble	Robinson	9 - 13 Pen
Michigan fakes a belly handoff to Shaw, doubling both DTs and hypothetically leaving Shaw one on one with the unblocked MLB. Not a convincing fake. it's supposed to go to a short bubble, but Robinson pulls it down and takes off, zipping by the MLB and scurrying around a safety, finally getting hacked down near the first down marker. Was the bubble open? Eh, probably, but not for 9 yards. Should Forcier have thrown this? Yes. Robinson? Run, jackrabbit, run. (SCR, --, protection NA) Omameh gets a personal foul for a hit well after the whistle.
RUN+		Odoms, Robinson						RUN-
M13	2	14	Shotgun Trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	22
UConn's nickel 4-3 is a 4-3 with one of the LBs lined up over the #2 WR outside. There are also two safeties about ten yards downfield. Molk(+1) and Schilling(+1) execute a classic scoop block, springing Schilling out on the the MLB, who he blocks out of hte play. Shaw(+1) takes out the other LB. Roundtree(+1) cuts a safety. Dorrestein(+1) gets a free release and has no one to block so he just runs downfield walling off the short side corner. A charging safety forces Robinson outside, where the corner manages to make a desperate lunging tackle, preventing an 85-yard touchdown. BWS picture-paged this play.
RUN+		Schilling, Molk, Roundtree, Shaw, Robinson						RUN-
M35	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Belly keeper	Robinson	10
This is a variant on the zone read but I'm not entirely sure what it's supposed to be yet or who Robinson reads. I think it's the WLB, actually, as Koger kicks out the DE and all the linemen get blocked. Here Huyge(-1) and Schilling(-1) get split by an active DT and Shaw would be dead but Denard(ZR +1) pulls it out. He's now past the slanting DT and Schilling has released downfield along with Molk. Molk(+1) clocks Lloyd. Omameh(+1) controls the other DT and drives him two yards downfield, allowing Robinson to cut back behind when the LB avoid Schilling and Shaw. Dorrestein is again walling off a guy downfield; Robinson cuts behind; Stonum(+1) nails a corner, giving Robinson room to the sideline.
RUN+		Omameh, Molk, Stonum, Robinson(2)						RUN-	Schilling, Dorrestein
M45	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone stretch	Shaw	5
Michigan blocking the backside DE; they are going to be reading LBs all game. With the WLB crashing down on the stretch, this is a missed read by Denard(ZR-1). Still hypothetically has a shot at succeeding but Omameh's guy has gotten a bit of push and is set up in the B gap; he absorbs Smith's block. Shaw(+1) has nowhere to go and cuts behind blocks into the wide open gap Denard should have taken, managing to fall forward after barely avoiding the guy Schilling was blocking.
RUN+		Shaw, Schilling						RUN-	Omameh, Robinson
50	2	5	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	4
Double the playside DT and contain him, run right at the MLB, with Shaw getting a decent block; Robinson runs decisively, taking a hit from said MLB as he bounces off Shaw's block.
RUN+		NA						RUN-	NA
O46	3	1	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Bear 5-3	Run	Iso	Shaw	2
Do isos just go in a gap or can that change based on the D? Because UConn slants into this gap, leaving a big hole between Schilling and Omameh that has two linebackers, Molk, and could have McColgan if they went there. Instead it's just straight ahead at because Omameh(-1) and Dorrstein(-1) have lost out on blocks there are two tacklers and nowhere for Shaw to go; Shaw(+1) manages to fall forward for the first.
RUN+		Shaw						RUN-	Omameh, Dorrestein
O44	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Belly handoff	Shaw	4
Not sure if this is the right read or not; DE is sliding down the line but maintaining some contain; definitely a handoff if Forcier, but Robinson? Benefit of the doubt since the DE did hesitate on Robinson. ZR+1. Omameh(-1) blocks down on the DT from an advantageous position and sees his block spun off of, forcing a cut outside where the backside DE is; the delay allows him to tackle. Crashing safety also there, but one-on-one that could have been a play.
RUN+		Robinson						RUN-	Omameh
O40	2	6	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	PA TE cross	Koger	16
Zone stretch fake with Schilling pulling around to provide pass protection on the unblocked backside DE. Linebackers suck up like whoah (RPS+2), leaving Koger wide open as the guy who should be covering the zone he's entering is actually trying to tackle Robinson. Dart hits him between the numbers 15 yards downfield, caught, first down. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O24	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Run	Zone stretch	Shaw	-1
Frustrating, as UConn has six in the box and literally not enough guys to tackle if they run another draw. This is a stretch, and Robison makes the correct handoff decision (ZR+1) since the WLB is charging right at him. Omameh's(-1) DT does get a little penetration and closes off the frontside B gap, forcing Shaw to cut back; Molk(-1) and Schilling double team the NT and eventually pancake him but don't block anyone else. Blitzing WLB makes the play. (RPS-1) Run minus: Omameh, Schilling.
O25	2	11	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	10
This is just too easy, as UConn does the exact same thing. With two deep safeties and six in the box they literally have no one to tackle the QB. WLB runs into a frontside crease, leaving no one for Shaw to even block until he's ten yards downfield. Molk(+1) controlled and pancaked the playside DT; Robinson and Shaw banged a safety, leaving the slot LB to come from behind and tackle. RPS+2.
RUN+		Robinson, Molk						RUN-
O15	3	1	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	3
SIX GUYS IN BOX ON THIRD AND ONE AT THE 15. Edsall derp. A slightly short yardage variation as Molk and Schilling double and crush the playside DT. Weakside LB reacts quickly and defeats Smith's block but has no chance to keep this under three yards, let alone one. RPS+1. Millen's praising Lloyd, and praising him correctly, and this had no chance.
RUN+		NA						RUN-	NA
O12	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	12
Almost all Smith. Schilling(-1) gets driven back and thrown almost into the path of Smith; he ends up with his back to the DT looking at him. On the frontside, Molk and Omameh just manage to wall off the playside DT; Omameh pops off on the charging SLB. Smith manages to slip through this mess into a totally unblocked safety, who misses, at which point he can cut behind Roundtree(+1) and get into the endzone.
RUN+		Smith(3), Roundtree						RUN-	Schilling
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 7 min 1st Q. 108 yard drive with two passes. Bo, man. Bo.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M23	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Belly handoff	Shaw	4
This is on Denard because the unblocked DE was hauling ass after the RB and he needs to pull it out (ZR -1). If he does he has Webb as a lead blocker, Huyge on Lloyd, and the slot LB between him and the safeties--first down probably, touchdown maybe. As it is Shaw(+1) does well to hop around the DE and pick up a few yards.
RUN+		Shaw						RUN-	Robinson
M27	2	6	?	?	?	?	?	Pass	Hitch	Stonum	5
Watching Rice-Texas instead of this play, come back just as Stonum's catching a zinger from Denard. (CA, 3, ?)
M32	3	1	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	3
Corner rolled down into the box as a WLB, allowing the LBs to slide over. This lets them send two guys into the hole the draw has gone into already, forcing Robinson behind the ineffective Molk/Schilling double and into the path of the backside DT, who has shucked Omameh; SLB comes up unblocked to fill but not before Robinson's quickness picks up the first. (RPS -1)
RUN+		Robinson						RUN-	Omameh
M35	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Belly lead keeper	Robinson	12
Same play as the first snap on this drive and Denard has learned (or just been told to pull the damn ball, getting a ZR+1). He yoinks the ball out as the DE against crashes down and finds himself in plenty of space with Webb as a lead blocker. Huyge(+2) gets a great pancake block on MLB Lloyd and Robinson jets past the first down; would like to see him try to set up the safety inside and hop outside in an effort to get a touchdown. Also Odoms does a great, if ultimately irrelevant, job on the outside.
RUN+		Robinson, Huyge(2), Odoms						RUN-
M47	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare screen	Shaw	16
Seven guys in the box now and UConn sends a safety-type player on a blitz. Four men are in a deep umbrella, leaving just two guys underneath, and they don't know where to go because Michigan is sending two OL each way. Michigan hits the flare. Odoms and Dorrestein get cuts downfield; Grady gets a decent block that springs Shaw through, leaving him one on one with a safety for six. Off balance, he can't put a move on and gets tackled. (CA,3, screen, RPS +1)
RUN+		Odoms, Dorrestein						RUN-
O37	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Belly handoff	Shaw	5
Essentially an identical play to the first one on the drive, where DE hauls ass after Shaw, Denard makes a bad read (ZR-1), Shaw(+1) evades the DE and hits the backside of the play. This time Denard actually gets out to block, Webb totally walls off the slot LB, Huyge gets another good block on Lloyd, and it's still six yards.
RUN+		Shaw, Webb, Huyge						RUN-	Robinson
O32	2	5	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	32
You cannot draw up a scoop block better than this. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) drive the playside DT back and then Omameh pops out on the MLB. A pulling Webb(+1) wipes Lloyd out, Shaw(+1) takes out the weakside safety type thing and Millen drops "that's six" as Robinson crosses the LOS. He really is a fantastic broadcaster. Replay.
RUN+		Molk, Omameh(2), Smith, Robinson, Webb						RUN-
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 1 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O44	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Shaw	15
Variant on the belly series from the last drive. On this one Webb pulls to clock the backside DE and Omameh(+1) blocks down on the playside DT; both linebackers have sucked to the backside because they're worried about Denard and not expecting this to go so far off tackle the other way since Shaw is lined up in the belly spot behind his QB. Ton of space; Shaw just runs by the SLB until he's forced inside by the corner. SLB tackles. RPS+1. Don't think this is a read, think this a called play, so no ZR.
RUN+		Omameh, Dorrestein						RUN-
O29	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	-3
UConn adjusting to this by slanting the DE into the gap instead of letting the OT kick him out. This creates a mess. Denard slows up and tries to cut back, but Omameh(-1) has been driven back and he still tries to go around, eventually getting tackled for a loss. Should have just cut it outside. The evolution of dance here is for Tebow-style play-action fakes that consist of a single step forward. RPS-1. Run Minus: Omameh, Robinson
O32	2	13	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Nickel 4-3	Run	Jailbreak screen	Grady	3
Fake the flare screen to Shawn and come back with the jailbreak on the other side of the field. This has sucked a lot of people out of position, leaving three blockers and three defenders before Grady is jetting for the endzone. Koger(+1) picks off the slot LB. Molk(+1) blocks MLB Lloyd. Schilling(-1) totally overruns the safety, who tackles unmolested. (CA, 3, protection NA)
RUN+		Molk, Koger						RUN-	Schilling(2)
O29	3	10	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	TE cross	Koger	4
Not sure how restricted Robinson's read is here, but M is hoping for man and gets zone so Koger gets nailed as soon as he catches it. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(42), 14-0, 13 min 2nd Q. Shankapotamus punt sets M up with good field position on the next drive.
O38	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4-	Run	Reverse	Grady	-3
PEDANTRY NOTE: Since the action of the play goes one way with what looks like a QB sweep and then has a pitch to the WR, I'm calling this a reverse instead of an end around. The play: Michigan runs QB sweep action and pitches it to Grady as Koger takes out the backside DE. Problem: this 4-4 has a weakside alley defender like a Kovacs and no one is doing the thing where they run with Stonum on a fly route for 20 yards. This guy bites but is so far to the backside that he can easily recover in time to hit Grady. Grady, for his part, just runs right into the guy when he could have cut it inside and gotten some yards, possibly lots, and then he fumbles. Not a great play for Grady.
RUN+		Koger						RUN-	Grady(3)
O41	2	13	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4-	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	6
Best block of the day for Omameh, who gets under the DT and pushes him back a couple yards. LB is flowing downhill at this very fast so Robinson decides to cut back rather than chance a pileup with that guy and Webb at the LOS. Omameh's guy pops off to try to tackle but falls over backwards thanks to Omameh and Denard runs through it; MLB ate Molk(+1) and Denard can fall forward, stiffarming as he falls.
RUN+		Omameh, Molk						RUN-
O35	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel	Pass	Slant	Odoms	16
Smith runs the flare screen route, Roundtree heads straight downfield, and Odoms slants inside. Denard throws what looks like a dangerous pass, but the safety coming down isn't even looking at Odoms, he's trying to get out for the screen, only realizing his error as the ball arrives. Odoms catches and quicks his way past the safety, picking up the first down and considerably more. With Odoms coming to a stop and a guy in Denard's face he can't wait any longer to make this throw; it is on rhythm. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Omameh -1)
O19	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Inside zone	Smith	4
Backside blitzer makes this a correct read (ZR+1) Omameh and Schilling(+1 each) successfully crease the DTs, leaving Molk one on one with SLB, who beats him(-1). Smith is tackled by that guy.
RUN+		Schilling, Omameh						RUN-	Molk
O15	2	6	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4-	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	-2
This one also appears designed to go right up the middle, but Omameh(-1) is beaten by the slanting DT and there's nothing. Robinson has a chance to hop outside and maybe beat the backside DE but slips and is tackled for a loss. RPS -1; this slant killed the play. Run minus: Omameh, Dorrestein
O17	3	8	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Nickel	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	10
UConn stunting, which takes the playside DE inside. He's walled off by Huyge(+1); Schilling(+1) absolutely blasts the playside DT, erasing him; Smith shifts outside the DE when he sees the way the play is developing; Smith and Roundtree get blocks downfield and it's first and goal.
RUN+		Schilling(2), Huyge, Smith, Roundtree						RUN-
O7	1	G	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Shaw	3
Correct read with a backside blitz. Schilling kicks out his DT; Molk plows the MLB; Omameh cannot handle his DT, who comes off him to make a play a few yards downfield. Not minus-worthy but I was thinking about it.
RUN+		Schilling						RUN-
O4	2	G	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Goal line	Run	Inside zone	Shaw	4
Basically the same play; Schilling(+1) again does a great job of kicking out the DT; Molk(+1) gets out on the MLB, and Omameh does enough on the other guy, falling to the ground but getting in the way of him.
RUN+		Schilling, Molk						RUN-
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-0, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O8	1	10	Shotgun Trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	8
Robinson correctly reads the crash (ZR+1) and pulls it out, finding himself in open space. Huyge can't maintain his block on the outside but he's blocking the handoff so not his fault. Robinson jets for eight.
RUN+		Robinson						RUN-
O16	2	2	Shotgun Trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	6
They do get the intended crease this time (no slant from the DE) but the MLB fills immediately, bashing Smith close to the LOS. Robinson(+1) darts around Molk and has the acceleration to dart up into the crease behind him before Omameh's guy can come off and grab him. He does manage to reach out an arm and spin him down.
RUN+		Robinson, Molk						RUN-	Smith
O22	1	10	Shotgun Trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	0
The read here should be keep but this might not actually be a read since he just ran twice. I have to assume it is, though, so: ZR-1. Smith has no hole because Omameh(-1) did not seal his man; that delay is enough for the backside DE to tackle for nothing. Run minus: Omameh, Robinson
O22	2	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Pass	PA throwaway	Roundtree(?)	Inc
UConn blitzes right into this, getting an unblocked guy in Robinson's face before he even has a chance; a slanting player has slashed past the fake run blocks and is also in the backfield. Robinson avoids one guy, then the other guy, in a remarkable Houdini act. With another couple guys coming in to crush him he just chucks the ball hard, deep, and on a line well past Roundtree. Was he trying to complete this? Does he just throw everything like this and has no deep ball? I don't know, but the benefit of the doubt goes to the guy who just escaped two defenders and is chucking the ball away. (TA, 0, protection 0/2, team, RPS-1)
O22	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Jailbreak screen	Stonum	4
UConn prepared for this, with the SLB in a position where there's no way anyone is going to be able to block him. Stonum(+1) does well to run through his tackle but he can't make the second guy miss. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-3, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M19	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	ZR Bubble	Roundtree	-1
Denard pulls it out with the DE crashing (ZR+1) but Huyge(-1) and Webb(-1) both have ineffectual blocks so DR goes to his safety valve; Odoms(-1) can handle his guy and it's a loss. (CA, 3, screen) Run minus: Huyge, Webb, Odoms
M18	2	11	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Quick out	Roundtree	Inc
This is a quick rollout with the two guys running an out and a fly to test the cornerback in a presumed zone; Denard throws the quick out before the play develops, allowing the corner to come up and crush Roundtree, separating him from the ball and knocking him out for the game. Another beat and he would have probably had Stonum, or the corner would have backed off Roundtree. (BR, 1, protection 1/1)
M18	3	11	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep hitch	Grady	16
Great protection leaves Robinson all kinds of time, and there's a fifth guy spying. Robinson waits for Grady to clear the linebacker level and sit down in the hole in the zone, then zips one in a decent window right on the numbers for a first down. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
M34	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	4
Same as previous plays; Webb(-1) just runs by the backside DE; Omameh(-1) cannot contain his man, and both of these guys get arms on Smith at the LOS. He does a good job of running through those tackles and getting a decent gain anyway. Schilling got his guy sealed again.
RUN+		Schilling, Smith						RUN-	Omameh, Webb
M38	2	6	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB stretch	Robinson	3
Molk(+1) gets a seal on the stretch block against that DT Omameh's been struggling with as Omameh heads to the second level, where the LB heads outside of him; Dorrestein(+1) pancakes the DE. Robinson should cut it up in between the C and T but heads outside, where Smith manages to wall off the SLB Omameh had no angle on. This leaves an unblocked safety to fill.
RUN+		Dorrestein, Molk						RUN-	Robinson
M41	3	3	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Odoms	9
Smith runs the flare again, drawing up the WLB and opening a window in which Robinson zings a first down completion. Slightly high, but ok. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M49	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	1
Correct handoff with a S waiting for him and Webb going to block the crashing DE. Story is again the same: Omameh(-1), even with help from Dorrestein, cannot contain DT99, who forces himself over into the hole, leaving nothing for Smith to do except run up the back of his OL. If I was grading the UConn D he'd be en route to +10 or better. ZR+1. Run minus: Omameh
50	2	9	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	4
No crash; correct handoff(ZR+1). Omameh(+1) does seal and kick the DT this time; they're running it to the opposite side. Unfortunately, Schilling(-1) can't get any drive or seal and Smith has to cut it back; Huyge(-1) whiffed on the SLB. Smith meets two guys two yards downfield and burrows for two more.
RUN+		Omameh, Robinson						RUN-	Schilling, Huyge
O46	3	5	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Stonum	11
The flare again sucks a linebacker up to it, leaving Stonum in a big hole in the zone. Zing, bobble, catch, first down. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O35	1	10	Shotgun Trips TE	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Grady	4
Safety walks down. This bubble is the short bubble where the receiver does not run the full route in the hopes of finding space between the freakin' out LB over the slot and the interior defense. This not so much. Odoms does manage to cut his guy but a safety charges up as soon as it looks like a bubble and snuffs it out. Michigan will use this later. (CA, 3, screen)
O31	2	6	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB stretch	Robinson	5
Dorrestein(+1) cuts the backside DT to the ground, removing him totally. Molk(-1) gets pushed back and Robinson has to cut behind; this open because of the Dorrestein chop. Omameh releases into the second level but ends up blocking no one, which is unfortunate because Denard squeezes through arm tackles only to take his first real shot of the day from a safety a yard short of the sticks.
RUN+		Robinson, Dorrestein						RUN-	Omameh, Molk
O26	3	1	?	?	?	?	?	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	3
TV misses this play.
O23	1	10	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	4
This again. Omameh(+1) does get enough of the DT for the RB to skip by; Schilling seals his guy out. Unfortunately Molk(-1) has a really weird whiff where he just runs away from the MLB, the only person he can reasonably expect to block, and that guy tackles.
RUN+		Omameh, Schilling						RUN-	Molk
O19	2	6	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare	Smith	-1
Incorrect read by Robinson as the LB is flying out of the zone and Michigan again has the slant they've worked for a bunch of first downs. He instead throws the flare, getting Smith whacked by the corner. (BR, 3, protection NA)
O20	3	7	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Robinson	11
UConn in zone and does a great job of covering a slant/wheel to the top of the screen Denard is looking at. Same thing on the bottom, same coverage. No one open, he takes off, darting past outstretched hands for the first down. Bonus: Smith's wicked blitz pickup. (SCR, --, protection 2/2)
O9	1	G	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 4-3	Run	QB stretch	Robinson	5
Playside DT just surges forward and falls, almost cut-blocking Molk. A charging LB darts past Webb, leaving two guys for Smith to block on the outside; the DT's fall has provided a cutback lane. Dorrestein(-1) could not cut the backside DT at all so he's there, but Robinson's hesitation move gets him to delay in case he cuts back around him, opening up a hole to dart into.
RUN+		Robinson, Huyge						RUN-	Dorrestein
O4	2	G	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 4-3	Run	Belly Keeper	Robinson	-3
DR seems en route to endzone when he bobbles and drops the ball. Never really had it after the exchange.
O7	3	G	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB stretch	Robinson	0
Blitz into the play cuts off the outside and gives UConn another guy on the inside to snuff this play out. RPS -1. Michigan will use this later, too.
Drive Notes: FG(24), 24-10, 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M11	1	10	Ace 4-wide	1	1	4	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Shaw	5
End around fake from Odoms; this is just a straight handoff up the middle. Omameh(+1) and Schilling(+1) crease the DTs and Molk(+1) nails the MLB; OLBs converge to tackle.
RUN+		Omameh, Schilling, Molk						RUN-
M16	2	5	I-Form Twins	2	1	2	Base 4-4	Run	Off tackle	Shaw	-10
Omameh(-2) completely pwned by the DT, who I will name for you at this point: Kendall Reyes. Shaw(-2) compounds matters by dancing backwards instead of just trying to cut behind the mess and get back to the LOS, getting shoved and tackled for a huge loss. Run minus: Omameh(2), Shaw(2)
M6	3	15	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Robinson	15
A give up and punt play, which is reasonable given the game situation and your sophomore QB. Except, uh? first down. UConn rushes four and has three LBs in the middle of the field. Smith(+1) gets enough of the MLB; Grady and Robinson get in the way, and the other Robinson(+1) gives a tiny hip fake that causes one of the LBs to hop outside the blocker; he continues upfield, getting submarined, flying for the first down, and giving his hip an owie.
RUN+		Robinson, Smith, T. Robinson, Grady						RUN-
M21	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Gardner	-4
Correct read (ZR+1) as the DE crashes but a terrible decision by Gardner(-2) to attempt to go outside of Koger and his man when the interior line was crushing that side of the line downfield. Koger(-1) also should have done better.
RUN+		Omameh, Dorrestein						RUN-	Gardner(2), Koger
M17	2	14	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Zone read belly	Smith	13
Another good read (ZR+1) with an outside blitzer and the fake is good enough to suck two guys outside and give Smith a big cutback lane he takes. Omameh(+1) crushed Reyes on this play; Dorrestein(+1) sealed off the SLB.
RUN+		Gardner, Omameh, Dorrestein						RUN-
M30	3	1	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 4-4	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	4
Surprise. LBs flying downhill at this, filling the hole, but Koger(+1) and Dorrestein(+1) have doubled the playside DE, driving him well back and giving Robinson a lane outside he takes for the first down. Robinson is too quick for the alley guy. (RPS-1)
RUN+		Koger, Dorrestein, Robinson						RUN-
M34	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare	Smith	8
Fourth or fifth time they've run this; this time the LB sticks in the middle of the zone and Robinson nails Smith with a perfectly placed touch pass that he can ramble up the sidelines with. (CA+, 3, screen)
M42	2	2	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Bubble Post	T. Robinson	43
Dorrestein(-1) completely whiffs his cut block as Michigan goes for a fake handoff, then a fake bubble that sucks the UConn linebacker corps to the LOS in a fashion I've never seen before. Robinson has two guys running wide open and picks Robinson's post because it's probably the primary read; he does this with a guy in his face so it's kind of a tough throw. It's on the money 20 yards downfield, providing Robinson the ability to run after the catch, so it gets a DO. (DO, 3, protection 0/1, Dorrestein, RPS+3)
O15	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	5
Eighth guy in the box is coming down hard in the G-T gap so Smith has to squeeze between the two guards; both have maintained good blocks. At this point the backside DE is crashing in and the eighth guy has adjusted, so the tackle. Smith does a good job of getting some YAC. RPS-1.
RUN+		Omameh, Schilling, Smith						RUN-
O10	2	5	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--	-1
PA rollout finds no one open for Robinson so he tries to run it; this is well defensed. Good D by Uconn, correct decision by Denard. (TA, --, protection NA)
O11	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare screen	Smith	11
UConn blitzes right into this, and gets DOOM'D for their trouble; you can hear Michigan Stadium go "yeeeeeah" as soon as they see what the playcalls are. RPS+2. There are only two guys to the same side of the field as Smith and four blockers; Huyge(+1) and Odoms(+1) do excellent jobs and Smith can walk it in. (CA, 3, screen)
RUN+		Odoms, Huyge						RUN-
Drive Notes: Touchdown (missed XP), 30-10, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M23	1	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Belly handoff	Shaw	3
UConn is pouring downhill at these so I won't judge too harshly on a drive when Michigan's just trying to put a game that's already put away fully underground. Omameh(+1) gets a good block; Molk's angle out of the line does not take him through defenders, and the crashing DE is crashing so hard Shaw again has to go behind a guy and get what he can, which is three since there are linebackers everywhere. I'm not going to ZR this either because the game's done and Robinson doesn't need more carries.
RUN+		Omameh						RUN-
M26	2	7	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 5-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	9
Okay, I will. UConn pulls an LB down to the line to combat the second TE, Webb(+1) kicks him out. DE crashes, Robinson pulls (ZR+1), Huyge wipes out Lloyd (easy), and Robinson shoots up in the gap provided by Schilling and Webb, cutting behind the SLB after five yards to pick up nine.
RUN+		Webb, Huyge, Schilling, Robinson						RUN-
M35	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 5-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	8
Basically same thing as M finally starts testing a UConn D intent on shooting the DE down the line. Here MLB Lloyd is the scrape guy and starts hauling ass after Denard immediately, but Denard just outruns him to the corner easy. Koger got a block on the playside DE. (ZR+1)
RUN+		Koger, Robinson						RUN-
M43	2	2	I-Form Twins	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Shaw	3
Reyes submarines Omameh and falls; Schilling(+1) seals his DT; Molk(-1) whiffs on Lloyd, who meets Shaw a yard past the LOS thanks to the excellent Schilling block; Shaw just blows him and gets the pile to fall the right direction.
RUN+		Schilling						RUN-	Molk
M46	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	1	2	Base 4-4-	Run	Broken play	Shaw	-1
Shaw and Smith bump into each other, almost certainly because Smith gets the wrong playcall. Not going to bother with the blocking because who knows?
M45	2	11	Ace	1	2	2	Base 5-3	Pass	Waggle TE flat	Koger	10
This sucks the WLB to the fake and gets Koger open in the flat. Robinson gives him a soft toss and he turns it up to get near the first down marker. (CA, 3, protection NA)
O45	3	1	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 5-3	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	6
Dorrestein(+1) and Koger(+1) totally obliterate the playside DE, catching the linebackers up in the wash and letting Robinson just run up their backs for five. This is a variant of the regular draw where they're doubling one particular member of the DL on short yardage.
RUN+		Dorrestein, Koger						RUN-
O39	1	10	Ace	1	2	2	Base 5-3	Run	Inside zone	Smith	0
At this point I'm not really interested. WOOOOO. Omameh gets the main demerit, but I'm not sure what Molk is doing either? at this point whatever.
O39	2	10	Shotgun H-back	1	1	3	Base 4-4	Run	Belly handoff	Smith	3
I understand this blocking so I'll chart it: again with the inside zone; Omameh(+1) gets a goot block; Schilling a bleah but acceptable one; Molk(-1) gets the ole job by Lloyd. Kind of disappointed in Molk's downfield blocking this game.
RUN+		Omameh						RUN-	Molk
O36	3	7	Shotgun 3-Wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Stonum	7
Simple pitch and catch, well timed if a tiny bit upfield. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O29	4	1	Ace	1	1	3	Base 5-3	Run	QB sneak	Robinson	2
They get it.
O27	1	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 5-3	Run	Iso	Smith	0
This is Omameh(-2) getting smoked. Run minus: Omameh(2)
O27	2	10	I-Form	2	1	2	Base 5-3	Run	Dive	Smith	1
Playside DT submarines Molk, taking himself and Molk out and opening a frontside crease. McColgan(-1) makes a really weird decision by hitting one of the contain guys instead of going right upfield and putting his facemask on the MLB's chest. Dorrestein can't cut said MLB and he tackles Smith near the LOS.
RUN+		Omameh						RUN-	McColgan
O26	3	9	I-Form Twins	2	1	2	Base 5-3	Run	Iso	Smith	0
Seriously, at this point whatever.
O26	4	9	I-Form Twins	2	1	2	Base 5-3	Pass	Waggle hitch	Grady	Inc
Can't see this from the tape but I had a good line on this in the stadium and it was open but Denard did not get the ball out fast enough. You can see that Stonum was open on the outside, too. I usually go with IN for balls that aren't bad ideas but are thrown too early/late but with Stonum sitting out there it's BR time. (BR, 0, protection NA)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 30-10, 2 min 4th Q. EOG.

I'm dizzy because I keep running around in circles screaming "wheeeeeeeeeeee!" I know it's Thursday, I don't care.

Yeah, let's just get right to the—

CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAART

Chart. I've included our Denard Robinson All of 2009 chart for comparison:

[Hennechart legend, or hover over the table headers]

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR
2009, All Of It	1	7	6(2)	3(1)	4	4	-	-	?
UConn	2	15(6)	-	-	3	2	-	-	2

Downfield success rate: 68%.

!!!!!111!111!!!!!!!

!!!!1111!!!!!1111!

I know. There has never been a UFR passing chart devoid of MAs and INs. The full dossier of things Robinson was dinged for:

• Chucking the ball away deep after escaping two unblocked rushers.
• Running out of bounds for a one-yard sack on a waggle play.
• Throwing a flare instead of a slant and getting Vincent Smith hit for a one yard loss.
• Getting Roundtree killed on an out that he caught until it was violently separated from him.
• Throwing a waggle hitch late on the last offensive play Michigan had.

That's it. The first is a good play. The second was a good decision since he had nowhere else to go and is Denard Robinson approaching the line of scrimmage. The other three were passes as deadly accurate as his other 18 but weren't the best options; only on the last was their any chance of a turnover. Everyone's worried about Tate Forcier transferring because of a lack of playing time… but what about Tacopants? He got zero balls.

UConn's secondary has to be terrible.

Yeah… UConn's secondary is probably terrible. They were starting a bunch of freshmen and failed to take advantage of a couple moments where it looked like Robinson was late on hitches. Also all that other stuff happened. Here is the avalanche of caveats and stern looks designed to keep your pants on—

—or put them back on—

TMI—and put Robinson's performance in perspective. Many of his downfield throws were either simple hitches or the slant/flare combo they ran about eight times where Smith would run a flare route, the linebacker to that side would start charging it down, and Robinson would zing a wide-open slant in the vacated space. Once the linebacker charged it down and Robinson threw the flare for no yardage; once he stayed home and Robinson threw the flare for good yardage. Michigan didn't show a whole lot, and for the most part avoided plays that could be risky.

The only play I gave the hallowed DO other than the wide open TRob (apologies for the use of that annoying shorthand but I'm not going to distinguish between the two Robinsons with full names for the next three years) post was this:

And while that's wicked sweet it's the only time he really fit it in a window. Not that I'm worried about his accuracy anymore*. It's more about what happens when his receivers are covered. Can he come off a primary read? Can he consistently recognize when guys are covered? Can he process information fast enough to get the passes out on time? Answers:

• Don't know, as both times UConn covered the primary read they covered everyone and Robinson ran.
• Don't know. He made three bad reads, but didn't throw anywhere truly dangerous.
• Not consistently yet. Some of the CAs above were late but he got away with them, and the last incompletion was very late.

Notre Dame and their veteran secondary will be another test.

On the other hand, how many times did you see Pat White zinging balls to hopelessly, almost unbelievably wide open receivers? Part of the magic of the offense is that when you can run 70% of the time and still put up first downs and string together long plays, things like that Robinson-to-Robinson pass where there isn't a defender in the same time zone as the receiver happen. The burden on Robinson to read defenses is going to be so much lower than it would be for a Henne or Tate because it's impossible to leave two high safeties against him (or at least a terrible idea) and taking a step forward is the best play-fake in the world.

Also, on third and 11 up 11 with this guy who wasn't even a quarterback last year, Rodriguez let 'er rip. They have some level of confidence there.

*(WOOO)

My pants—

More charts! Receiverchart:

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Stonum	-	-	-	5/5		-	-	-	5/5
Odoms	-	-	-	2/2		-	-	-	2/2
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Jackson	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Roundtree	1	0/1	-	-		1	0/1	-	-
Grady	1	-	-	3/3		1	-	-	3/3
Robinson	-	-	-	1/1		-	-	-	1/1
Stokes	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Koger	-	-	1/1	2/2		-	-	1/1	2/2
Webb	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Smith	-	-	-	3/3		-	-	-	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	1/1		-	-	-	1/1
Cox	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Hopkins	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Toussaint	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-

An exceptionally unchallenging day, but one on which they made no mistakes. Having Koger go 3/3 is encouraging. The only hypothetically catchable pass that wasn't was the one on which Roundtree got blown up. Hard to blame a guy for that.

PROTECTION METRIC: 12/16, Dorrestein –1, Omameh –1, Team –2.

Low sample size makes it tough to get a read but since the Dorrestein –1 was a failed chop block on the TRob post and the team minus was getting overwhelmed by a blitz into play action the initial returns are pretty good. No minuses from the tackles when they're actually setting up to pass block is win.

Rock-paper-scissors: +13, –7, TOTAL +6.

This may even be pessimistic since I started dinging Michigan points for running the same stuff over and over again when they probably put away the tricks because they didn't need them and I think I even RPS-1ed a successful QB lead draw on third and one because UConn was all over it. Is it really a bad decision if they leap all over it and still can't stop it?

It'll be interesting to watch this over the course of the season—Robinson's promise is that he can drop more RPS+3 plays this year than Michigan has in the last two seasons combined.

All right, now… the run game, which was the bulk of the offense?

Right, so this is the first time I'd ever systematically done this and it could end up being totally whack but here it is anyway:

Chart.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Huyge	7	2	5	No pass rush minuses, too. Excellent day.
Schilling	13	6	7	Clearly the best interior OL on the day.
Molk	10	5	5	Had some downfield whiffs.
Omameh	15	16	-1	Major issues with Kendall Reyes.
Dorrestein	9	4	5	Couple of pancakes.
Webb	3	2	1	Seemed better.
Koger	6	1	5	!
TOTAL	63	36	27	Splat.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Robinson	17	6	13	Woo ha!
Gardner	1	2	-1	Should have cut his loss upfield for a big gain.
Shaw	7	2	5	Lot of hopping on bad ZR decisions.
Smith	7	1	6	TD killer.
Cox	-	-	-	DNP
Toussaint	-	-	-	DNP
Hopkins	-	-	-	DNP
McColgan	-	1	-1	Eh.
Jones	-	-	-	DNP
TOTAL	33	15	18	Zip.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Stonum	1	-	1	--
Odoms	4	1	3	Wha?
TRobinson	1	-	1	--
Roundtree	3	-	3	--
Grady	1	3	-2	Negs on the bad reverse.
TOTAL	17	10	7	!?!?!?
Metrics
Zone Read	10	3	7	Just Robinson. Gardner also had a 2-0-2.

I have no idea what the context is here and think I should separated out carrying and blocking +/- for the RBs, since the former seems more important than the latter but it essentially bears out what I thought when watching the game. The tackles were surprisingly good but not that involved on a day when Michigan did almost all of its damage up the middle. Schilling took a major step forward, something that's echoed by NFL draft types:

Steve Schilling/G/Michigan: Schilling, who looked liked a star in the making as a freshman, has struggled the past few seasons adjusting to Michigan's motion offense. On Saturday, he showed signs of major improvement in his ability to block on the move and annihilate opponents at the point.

Molk was good but did not execute many of his patented reach blocks because of the interior focus and whiffed on MLBs a bit too often for my tastes.

And Patrick Omameh struggled. He didn't exactly lose out, but as the only guy on the line anywhere near even he stood out as a sophomore. UConn's Kendall Reyes was a problem all day, bursting into the backfield on the Shaw ten-yard loss and causing most of the bounce-outs. Sometimes this just happens. I remember Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones doing a lot of damage, pointing out how good he was, and hoping this was true both for credibility and what it said about Michigan's offensive line. Jones eventually went in the second round of the NFL draft. I both think and hope Reyes is really good, headed for All Big East recognition. If not, Omameh has a lot of work to do.

What if Robinson explodes or something?

Well, we're in trouble. This might happen. Quarterbacks get injured frequently. But it doesn't appear that they get injured any more frequently when they run a lot, as MCalibur's diaries have shown. There is a slight increase in injury rate that does not rise to the level of statistical significance, which is to say that the numbers suggest there might be a slight uptick, but the rate at which this happens is low enough that we can't be sure. In any case, an extra 2-3% chance your QB goes down is so worth the added explosiveness a guy like Robinson brings.

Heroes?

Almost everyone to some extent but special mention goes to Robinson (obviously) and Schilling.

Goats?

The only person who even remotely qualifies is Omameh and even he did all right.

What does it mean for Notre Dame and beyond?

Next week's game is going to be interesting on the interior of the line since ND is running a 3-4. Omameh won't have a DT lined up directly over him; that will fall to Molk, who will endeavor to put Ian Williams on rollerskates for the third straight year. Williams has supposedly bulked up and didn't spend most of the last year rehabbing a knee so that matchup should be more even. If Molk can win it consistently, Schilling and Omameh will spend most of their time trying to stay in front of Carlo Calebrese and Manti Te'o, ND's MLBs. Those three matchups will go a long way towards determining the outcome of the game. I expect considerably more variation in the run game, with a lot more stretch plays to test the historically immobile Williams.

In the passing game… well, if Notre Dame leaves primary reads open Robinson will hit them. They will probably have an answer to the slant/flare combo that worked so well for Michigan against UConn, but with so few tricks pulled out of the bag in the first game they'll have to deal with a larger than usual set of plays they have not seen before. That combined with Robinson's legs demanding attention should set him up with a large number of makeable throws as long as he's not stuck with long-yardage situations. That goes back to the interior line, then.

We don't know much, but we'll know a lot more after Saturday.

Previously: The story, the secondary, the linebackers, the defensive line, special teams, and the conference.

Rating: 4 of 5.

LT	Yr.	LG	Yr.	C	Yr.	RG	Yr.	RT	Yr.
Mark Huyge	Jr.*	Steve Schilling	Sr.*	David Molk	Jr.*	Patrick Omameh	So.*	Perry Dorrestein	Sr.*
Taylor Lewan	Fr.*	Ricky Barnum	So.*	Rocko Khoury	So.*	Quinton Washington	Fr.*	Michael Schofield	Fr.*
--	--	Elliott Mealer	So.*	Christian Pace	Fr.	John Ferrara	Sr.*	--	--

Last year the big stat was Michigan's rushing game over the second half of the season, which went from turrible to solidly above average and hypothetically would have been 30th nationally if they hadn't been flailing around the first half of the season. A 3.5 was offered here after the previous seasons oh-so-warranted 1, and that seemed slightly pessimistic as Michigan firebombed its first four opponents on the ground (sacks, kneeldowns, and bad snaps obscured a 222 yard day against Indiana in game four).

Unfortunately, once the opposition got serious the loss of David Molk for all but three snaps of the Big Ten schedule could not be overcome. The right side of the line resembled Drew Palmisano during the Epic Karma series (hey-o!), David Moosman was not as agile as Molk and had a nasty tendency to chuck snaps anywhere but the quarterback's chest, and snap counts got predictable enough for Michigan State players to commit what seemed like five or so uncalled offsides penalties.

The result was a gradual decline, probably an extra loss or two—it's not hard to see Molk's presence swing at least one of the Iowa, Purdue, or Michigan State games, especially since half of Michigan's negatives in the MSU game were attributed to his absence—and the team's failure to lock down this blog's giddy projections of Michigan's BEST RUSH OFFENSE EVER (since 2000) after the first third of the schedule. The resulting absence from a bowl game has us where we are now, on a rickety boat approaching Niagara Falls.

But, hey, silver lining: Molk's absence last year means everyone this year started at least three games and could be regarded a returning starter if you want to squint at it. Sure, the two guys who tried right tackle last year were wonky enough to provide a redshirt freshman his starts, but… hey… like… whatever. Compared to last year, there's a ton of depth and experience. Compared to 2008, there is a Weisload. (Miss you, big guy xoxo.) Ask Rodriguez:

“Two years ago, it’s not even close,” Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said. “… Now, we have four or five guys that have started, guys that have redshirted in (Taylor) Lewan and (Michael) Schofield and Quinton Washington that are now ready to play.

“We still have not as quite as talented in the ones and twos as we’d like to be, but we’ll have seven or eight guys when we’re done with camp in a week or two that we’ll feel comfortable playing.”

The interior line looks killer if Patrick Omameh can live up to the cascades of hype he's receiving, and the tackles… well… like… whatever?

Tackle

Rating: 3 of 5.

After a spring in which already-hyped Taylor Lewan found himself starting at left tackle thanks to Perry Dorrestein's back injury—thus picking up an extra, even shinier layer of hype—you couldn't find a Michigan fan who would have projected him to start the year on the bench. But that's apparently the case, as the two veterans who made the right side such a mess last year have held onto their starting spots by the skin of their teeth. Rodriguez says this is due to considerable improvement…

“Yeah, the upper classman are battling to keep it. (Mark) Huyge and (Perry) Dorrestein have really done a good job in camp. The two young tackles (Michael) Schofield and (Taylor) Lewan have been pretty solid. They’re bigger, stronger and I think that competition has been pretty good. I’ve been really pleased they way Perry and Mark have responded to the challenge and really have their best camps since I’ve been here the last two years."

…but it is hard to imagine him saying anything else. I believe him, but like a lot of spots on the team the returning starters have a long way to go.

MARK HUYGE

DOWNFIELD NO

huge whiff on LB

fails to cut LB

DOWNFIELD YES

MLB erasure

springs Minor TD

GOOD TACKLE STUFF

on his way to six points

huge cutback lane

blocking the backside DE

BAD TACKLE STUFF

driven back

stretch fail

unnecessary hold

Your tentative starting left tackle is redshirt junior Mark Huyge. His issues in pass protection started as early as the Notre Dame game, when a Moosman injury forced Michigan to shuffle him inside. He picked up –6 points after being "driven back on multiple plays" on Forcier's game-winning drive and was so shaky against Michigan State that he was pulled for third-stringer John Ferrara; Ferrara "immediately gave up a crushing sack." This caused "So the right side of the line just can't block?" to become a UFR question and kicked off a stretch of ugly protection numbers that would span most of the rest of the season, with Illinois and Wisconsin standing out as late, hopeful exceptions.

By the Purdue game, Huyge's pass protection issues were "the usual" as he racked up a –5 on a day when the offensive line pulled a very poor 14/29 in the protection metric. He did manage to avoid any minuses on an "extremely shaky" performance against Penn State (Dorrestein got a –2). The clips at right are mixed, but since twenty-yard runs always get clipped and zero-yard runs are only taken out when they are important or seem emblematic of something, a 50-50 mix is not a great ratio.

So he wasn't very good last year. There's reason to expect a significant step forward, though. He enters the year at tackle and won't get bounced back and forth between different positions. He, along with the rest of the offensive line, got swoll in the offseason. After going into 2009 at 288, Huyge is now a strapping 306 pounds, and as a who-dat recruit on the offensive line you can expect a bigger leap forward between redshirt sophomore and junior years than, say, a tailback. And perhaps most importantly, he's held off the charging Lewan.

Perry Dorrestein: GOOD AT HUGZ

Right tackle Perry Dorrestein, meanwhile, started the year off as Huyge's backup and only drew into the lineup when injury forced him to, first temporarily against ND and then permanently for the Big Ten schedule. His first extended action came against Indiana and their surprisingly talented defensive ends. He did not fare well:

PROTECTION METRIC: 22/32, Koger –1, Brown –2, Team –2, Dorrestein –5.

That is not good. That is bad, and all of it save the "team" category came when Indiana defensive ends pwned the opposition. That might be understandable when you're a pass-catching tight end or a tailback, but Dorrestein was responsible for a lot of the Forcier chaos and didn't do much to justify Mark Huyge's move inside. Huyge's struggled in pass protection himself; unless Patrick Omameh surges into the starting position he lost in spring—not likely at this point—it's going to be those guys the rest of the way and the protection will be dodgy.

He picked up a –4 in the ugly Michigan State game, coming in for the same "right side of OL? More like the right side of oh noes!" criticism Huyge did. He was strictly a tackle, never moving inside.

PERRY DORRESTEIN

RUNS

authoritatively pancakes him.

seals the playside DE

gets off the ball

Dorrestein, like Huyge, threw on a bunch of weight in the offseason, but since he's going from 306 to 321 that's less obviously positive. He wasn't the guy struggling at the back of the OL group in the fall scrimmage—that would be Quinton Washington—but 321 seems a little hefty for Rodriguez's offensive style. It's not nearly as important for tackles to have the crazy agility the interior line needs, but those backside DTs need to be chopped down by backside tackles if cutback lanes are going to open up. I thought this might signal an end to the tackle competition before it began, but this is obviously not the case.

For what it's worth, the tackles had good days against Illinois and Wisconsin, the latter against an intimidating defensive line. This was a significant factor in Forcier's excellent passing day against the Badgers; it could have been better but Forcier still had to "get used to the idea" that the pass protection could be, like, good. It was hard to tell who was at fault in the Iowa game, when Iowa stunts consistently fooled the Michigan OL.

So that's all kind of scary, but it's worth noting that last year I was full of consternation about Mark Ortmann, whose junior year saw stuff like this go down in a single game…

Ortmann(-2) totally smoked by a blindside rusher… Ortmann(-2) took a poor angle downfield, though, and the MLB beats him, prompting Threet to pitch it despite a State LB having decent contain. … Ortmann and McAvoy just run by an MSU linebacker … A three-man rush; Ortmann's guy spins inside of him and dives at Threet's feet [to sack] … Ortmann(-2) beaten pretty badly [on a sack].

…and left me asserting "I'd be surprised to see Ortmann keep his job." Ortmann not only hung on to it, he played well the whole year, hitting the preview's projected upside of Adam Stenavich. If Michigan had been good and stuff he might have made an all-conference team (second team, but still). The moral is that linemen can develop at any point and that old ones are usually good ideas.

This year will be a big test for Greg Frey, who's generally well-regarded by the fanbase and can now show his mettle by improving the returning veterans in the same way he turned Ortmann into a pretty good Big Ten player.

Backups

Lewan left, Schofield right

Taylor Lewan is currently a backup but it wouldn't be surprising to see him supplant someone for one of the starting tackle jobs during the season. He's one of those guys who had an avalanche of recruiting hype actually followed up by at-practice hype—far from a given for offensive linemen—and, as mentioned above, he was sufficiently impressive in spring for visions of freshman starter Jake Long to dance in Michigan fans' heads. This site's take from spring;

On the outside there's been some shuffling with Dorrestein and Huyge flopping left to right at times. This may be due to Taylor Lewan's (right) quick emergence. He's been called an "obvious future star" and  "reminiscent of Jake Long."  Reports are still conflicting on his readiness but all agree that his upside is as rapturous as the recruiting gurus promised; it seems like it's matter of time before he claims the left tackle spot. That timeframe may be September or it may be next year. The most recent move suggests the move may come sooner rather than later. Flipping Huyge to the right seems to be an effort to get Michigan's best five on the field. If I had to bet, I'd go with Lewan as the starting LT against UConn.

The timeline is going to be at least a little less aggressive than that, but he's also got Jibreel Black's vote:

“The best pass blocker I went against is probably Taylor Lewan, most definitely. Running wise, I would have to say (Steve) Schilling.

Lewan's recruiting profile constantly references Jake Long—constantly sees other people reference Jake Long, that is—and sooner or later it seems likely he'll be a star. Since he isn't actually Jake Long a more realistic timeframe may be the Omameh one where the redshirt freshman year sees some sporadic playing time and starts when needed due to veterans getting injured or not performing, leaving the breakout for next year.

Lewan's classmate Michael Schofield is the backup right tackle (though either tackle going down will see Lewan enter the lineup). A well-regarded and athletic but relatively slight four-star prospect coming out of high school, Schofield's put on 25 pounds over the last year and now stands at 293—his father posts enthusiastically on Scout about how none of his clothes fit any more. Despite that gain, Schofield is probably another year or two away from playing time. In the fall scrimmage he was one of the few linemen to draw Rodriguez's ire (pad level, naturally).

Somewhat frighteningly, there are no other scholarship backups, not even true freshmen. In the event Angry Michigan Secondary-Hating God gets bored and starts picking off tackles like it's going out of style, the last-ditch option is either moving Omameh outside or bringing in Ricky Barnum, who's practiced everywhere his first two years at Michigan.

Interior Line

Rating: 4 of 5.

STEVE SCHILLING

FIRST LEVEL

seals Ethan Johnson

kicks out DT

seals Odrick

executes tough reach

excellent scoop block

gets a cutback lane

SECOND LEVEL

cuts the living hell out of LB

PROBLEMS

blocks no one

shoots upfield immediately

slanting DT into backfield

Steve Schilling, now a candidate for the Brooks Bollinger Memorial Eighth-Year Senior Award, returns for a fourth year as a starter. Unfortunately, none of those years have been super awesome. Persistent pass-protection issues at right tackle (perhaps understandable since Schilling's high school team almost literally never threw the ball) forced him to move inside last year, where his pass-protection issues were mitigated… but not exactly quashed. He came in for some worry after the Purdue game:

… man, the pass protection issues are not letting up and the second-most vulnerable guy other than whoever the right tackle is has been Schilling, which isn't good. You can sort of understand why a two-star sophomore who had only MAC offers is struggling at tackle. Schilling's at an easier spot and is a five-star junior. At this point he's probably not going to live up to the hype. That's not to say he's bad, but pass protection breakdowns from the LG spot are really frustrating, especially when there are many incidents where Schilling doesn't lose his guy but gets shoved so far back in the pocket that Forcier has nowhere to go when someone comes tearing around the right tackle.

Schilling did do well in Genuinely Sarcastic's run charting last year and get Black's vote for best run blocker, so he's not exactly bad. He's just not what people expected when he was the hotness picking Michigan over USC out of Bellvue, Washington.

He should take another step forward as a senior, obviously, and finish out his career a solid player. Reasonable expectations are being able to hold up against bull-rushes better and pick up more stunts, though that latter issue could be due to the problems at center once Molk went down.

 

 

DAVID MOLK

BURY

you go to ground now

sees it and jets

SECOND LVL

Gone

SEAL

on his way to six points

gets outside the tackle

David Molk didn't play in spring and had a green jersey through part of fall camp, so the question foremost in your mind is about his health. The good news is that he's basically Mike Martin when it comes to holding a guy out:

Is David Molk healthy now?
Coach Rodriguez: “Yeah. He scrimmaged yesterday a little bit. We didn’t have him go the whole time for precautionary reasons, but he got a few good series in and did pretty well.”

Hallelujah. Since he missed most of last year there's not a lot more to go on than this site's assessment of his redshirt freshman season, which was rapturous after the Penn State game:

He got dinged later in the year for being small, but in a system like this where he's reach-blocking all day his agility is an asset. Time and again against Penn State he successful executed these blocks, springing people into the secondary. Against Notre Dame he did the same thing.

The issues are obvious, though: too many missed blocks, and too many blocks where he's just not strong enough to deal with his man. But he's a redshirt freshman; strength should come.

As far as last year goes, he did pick up a couple of holding penalties against Western, resulting in a small cluck. The response of Rodriguez, who called him "one of the team's best players," and the offense when he went out with an injury indicates just how important he was to the team.

Healthy, back in shape, and ten pounds heavier than he was going into last year—twenty pounds heavier than he was the last time he got a lot of playing time against quality opponents—Molk should be the team's best lineman and in the conversation for All Big Ten at the end of the season, with a Rimington finalist kind of year his max upside.

Last but probably not least when it comes to the starters, redshirt sophomore Patrick Omameh is set to bust out. He was the Lewan of last year, the recipient of a torrent of practice hype who fans were surprised to see on the bench, even more surprised to see him still on the bench when Molk went out, and further surprised still when he danced his way into the starting lineup as a guard when he'd been hyped up as the next great Michigan tackle for going on two years. As late as February I was saying things like "Omameh has always been regarded a left tackle prospect."

This wasn't actually wrong:

But following weeks of pats on the back from his coaches, Omameh, in part of a widespread shift along the line, got the start at right guard in UM's third-to-final game of the year. Not only was it his first game action at the position, Omameh had never even worked at right guard in practice.

Why would Michigan make such a weird move? And then why would they stick with it? Well:

Yuck. Is there any hope for the OL going forward?

Well, Omameh had a very good day, and not just for a redshirt freshman. His agility is as advertised:

He was sealing DTs with Moosman all day; he seemed to have a grasp on pass protection, too. He was so obviously  good that he's now your starter at RG, no questions asked, as Huyge and Dorrestein fight it out at right tackle. That's an important step forward for him. If he's languished on the bench as Ferrara got the start the hype on him would be heading towards Grady Brooks territory; as it is he's beaten out some more experienced options and played well as a redshirt freshman. You can now put him in pen somewhere on next year's line.

PATRICK OMAMEH

NO

great, Hart-like run

YESSS

out on the MLB.

kicks the DL down the line by himself

CAN PULL

pulls Omameh around

In Michigan's offense the guys who can get 15 yards downfield and put a hat on a guy need to be guards. I can't tell you how many times I've UFRed a play where Michigan has creased the opponent's line and looks set up for a big play only for the guard releasing downfield to do an ole and for Michigan to get three yards. (Here's a Picture Pages from '08 that provides an example.) Last year when Huyge was forced inside his strike rate was iffy, as you can see in his "downfield no" section. Omameh and Schilling provide the potential for Michigan to have two guys who can get blocks downfield, sometimes way downfield, and turn those 3, 4, and 5 yard runs into 10, 15, 20, or more. That's why Omameh's inside.

There he's been getting buckets and buckets of hype, from here and anywhere else you want to look. Like most of the other guys on the line he's packed on the muscle, now checking in at 299 after last year's 276. The thing I remember most from the spring game was Omameh not only sealing but pancaking Renaldo Sagesse, a senior and decent Big Ten player, on one particular zone stretch. If this is true…

"The only way I can tell I'm heavier is by stepping on the scale," Omameh said. "I still feel like, and move like, the way I did when I came in. The strength is evident when I play."

…look out.

Backups

This will be fairly brief since no one on the interior has seen game time. At center the primary backup is Rocko Khoury, a middling three-star recruit who was passed over last year in favor of the crazy shuffling. Since he was a redshirt freshman that's not a huge black mark. The ease with which Mike Martin was crushing him in the fall practice is slightly concerning, but hopefully Martin will be doing that to all manner of opponents.

At guard, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum and Elliott Mealer plus redshirt freshman Quinton Washington are the primary backups, with Barnum and Washington the top two guys on the depth chart. All came in fairly highly touted and have enough experience that seeing one on the field—probably Barnum—won't be cause for too much alarm.

Senior John Ferrara has fallen to third-string and will probably be limited to special teams; solitary freshman Christian Pace is guaranteed to redshirt.

The kids are in and the winter sports are slowly strangling whatever hopes you had, so the next major event you won't stare at a bottle of pills after is spring practice. Time for primers. Positions I'll be looking at hard in a month or two:

Left Tackle

The Departed

Fifth-year senior Mark Ortmann graduates. Ortmann was no Jake Long but by the end of his career at Michigan he was a solid pass protector and okay in the run game. If Michigan can get an equal performance from a freshman or sophomore that's a win.

The Candidates

The favorite is redshirt sophomore Patrick Omameh, who drew into the lineup late last year when David Molk went down with injury and the right guard spot became persistently unsettled after David Moosman slid over to center. Omameh made a few impressive plays downfield…

…and was generally functional. Though he ended up at guard last year that was an effort to get Michigan's best five linemen on the field more than anything else. Omameh has always been regarded a left tackle prospect.

Omameh's main competition will come from two redshirt freshman. Taylor Lewan was a late-blooming prospect from Arizona who got acres of hype—the Long comparisons were rife—and has an enormous ceiling. Omameh has experience on Lewan but if those two are far and away the top two candidates for starting jobs they might leave Omameh at guard and insert Lewan. Michael Schofield is another redshirt freshman who was well-regarded as a recruit and will have a shot at the job, but he may be better suited for right tackle.

Hoping for… Lewan. Jumping into the starting lineup as a freshman would be Long-like for a guy who has drawn Long comparisons, and it would presumably allow Omameh to slide over to right tackle to help lock down the area from which most of Tate Forcier's wild-ass scrambles were born.

Expecting… Omameh. With three starts to his name and no current starters a threat to move to left tackle, Omameh is a prohibitive favorite.

Right Guard

The Departed

The aforementioned Moosman was Michigan's most consistent offensive lineman the last two years when not forced to play center due to Molk's injuries. Though he was consistent, he wasn't great; his prominence says more about the state of Michigan's line the last couple years than his future in the game. He wasn't invited to the NFL combine.

Since Moosman spent most of the year at center and his replacement was a combination of Huyge, Ferrara, and Omameh with the latter performing the best, Michigan should expect improved production here.

The Candidates

If Lewan or Schofield blows up, Omameh is the likely starter here… unless he gets shifted out to right tackle. But that's another spot.

Assuming the tackles are not in such surplus that Michigan can toss them about the interior line willy-nilly, Michigan faces a choice between old and young. The old guy in the mix is fifth-year senior John Ferrara (right), a guy who was flipped from defensive tackle in Rodriguez's first year at Michigan and saw spot starts in 2008. He was supplanted last year by a couple of guys who displayed serious limitations, but he's more seasoned than the other options.

The other options are a pair of highly-touted southerners. Redshirt sophomore Ricky Barnum decommitted from Florida just before signing day and was actually the second-team left tackle last year. The assumption here is that Omameh was more ready to play and left tackle was not open, so the best backup lineman practiced at the most available spot—right guard after Molk went down—and the second best practiced at the toughest. That would be Barnum. He came highly touted and after two years prepping he's the most likely guy. If it's close, Michigan will probably go with the younger player.

The other prime candidates are Elliot Mealer, who saw a little time last year as a backup, and redshirt freshman Quinton Washington. The soft-spoken Washington picked Michigan over South Carolina late in last year's recruiting cycle and drew lavish praise from the coaches:

"To my understanding, he's their number one lineman they are going after in the nation. That's point blank what coach Rodriguez told me Friday night."

Washington is a rare combination of size and linebacker-erasing agility and could be a major star. His ceiling is very, very high. If he doesn't win a job this year he will be the heavy favorite to replace Steve Schilling in 2011.

Hoping for… Realistically, Barnum. He should be ahead of Washington at this point and Washington getting the nod over him would probably say more bad things about Barnum than good things about Washington. In fairy land where Michigan embarks on a four-year journey with Lewan as Jake Long 2.0 and Washington as Steve Hutchinson 2.0, Washington. No offense to Ferrara, but I'd take a starting spot for him as a very bad sign.

Expecting… Barnum.

Right Tackle

The Departed

No one. Whoever's here this fall should be better, whether it's the same players with more experience or someone displacing them.

The Candidates

The reason this position is listed prominently is performance of the two semi-incumbents. Perry Dorrestein and Mark Huyge (right, holding the hell out of a Penn State lineman) were functional in the run game but revolving doors in pass protection. A not so random protection metric from last year:

PROTECTION METRIC: 14/29. Huyge –5, Schilling –3, Minor –2, Ortmann –1, Shaw –1, Koger –1, Moosman –1, Omameh –1.

That is by far the lowest percentage in UFR history. The culprits are the usual by now: Huyge on the edge, Schilling getting blasted back into the pocket, and several other folk having individual moments of struggle.

That happened to be a game that Huyge played right tackle; when Dorrestein got the start he was the guy leading the way with big minuses.

Michigan had little choice but to rotate those two last year. This year they have options. The aforementioned Lewan and Schofield come off redshirt years; Omameh will probably move back to tackle in spring, too. All these guys have been talked about already.

Hoping for… in the scenario where Lewan erupts, Omameh.

Expecting… early, a rotation similar to last year's. Huyge takes over late and his pass protection remains a major issue.

Tailback

The Departed

Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown were polar opposites in many ways but shared a knack for getting injured constantly. Despite having not one but two senior tailbacks, Michigan was forced to go to true freshman Vincent Smith late last year as both veterans looked on dourly from the sidelines holding various aching extremities.

Kevin Grady is also gone, though he was mostly a fullback last year.

Production should be about even; Brown and Minor were hardly at full speed last year.

The Candidates

They are diverse and sundry. With Vincent Smith out until fall with an ACL tear, five or six players will battle for carries. Mike Shaw is the one you've seen before. His freshman year was exciting, but his promise dipped as a sophomore. Shaw runs wildly. He's a zippy guy with the occasional fantastic move…

…but his vision is lacking and he's had fumble issues. This spring will be a turning point in his career. If he gets left in the wash by freshmen he's headed for kickoff return duties and not much else. Chances are he improves enough to be a part of the rotation; he has Brown-level speed.

Other folk are murkier. Mike Cox displayed impressive balance on a couple of garbage-time carries against weak opponents but has done nothing else so far and fell behind Smith almost as soon as he hit the practice field. He could find use as a short-yardage back or Soul Train extra. Cox is the only other player in the spring tailback derby to have seen a carry at Michigan.

The other three players are freshmen, be they redshirt or true. Fitzgerald Toussaint, the redshirt, is the most likely to have a breakout spring. He enrolled in fall—Smith got in early, giving us an early glimpse—and then broke his collarbone. That forced him out of a month of practice and relegated him to scout team duties, but before that he was a jump-cut maniac at Youngstown Liberty who racked up three or four 50+ yard touchdowns per game. When I profiled Toussaint prior to his enrollment, I was higher on him than Smith:

While I think Vincent Smith can be a good back in the Michigan offense, Toussaint has the bigger recruiting rep, better track numbers, and heart-stopping highlights; my bet is that he's the most successful tailback out of this class. I love the combination of moves, zone suitability, and flat-out speed cited by ESPN and demonstrated at track meets and football games.

And while Smith has outpaced even this site's positive take on him in year one, the main thing I'll be looking for this spring is Toussaint translating his sprinter's speed and audacious cuts to Michigan Stadium.

True freshmen Austin White and Stephen Hopkins have enrolled early and will get their shots as well. White is a slot/tailback who might be reminiscent of a Dorrell Jalloh or Darius Reynaud; he comes with less hype than Toussaint and I assume he will redshirt. Hopkins is the lowest-rated back of anyone on the roster but at 6-foot and 230-240 pounds there is a distinctly vacant role on the roster he might be the man to fill. Michigan needs a short-yardage moose.

Hoping for… Smith's healthy return and Toussaint living up to his crazy film.

Expecting… pretty much that, with Shaw factoring in as needed.

Others

My assumption remains that Devin Gardner is headed for a redshirt. Still, getting a look at the future of Michigan's quarterback position will be a priority for many. Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms have a stranglehold on slot receiver, but an extended look at Jeremy Gallon with an eye towards "please God, send us a punt returner" will be welcome. On the outside, Junior Hemingway is a lock and it will take some doing to displace Darryl Stonum. With Ricardo Miller, Jeremy Jackson, and Jerald Robinson all in early there's a chance someone displays an ability to adjust to deep balls.

Finally, I wonder if any of the tight ends can catch now.

Personnel notes: this was the most boring opponent D personnel ever. ND spent the entire game aside from a few goal line plays in a 4-2-5 nickel with Sergio Brown acting as a sort of S/LB hybrid over the slot receivers. Michigan's base set is 1 TE, 1 RB, and 3 WR, pending the return to full health of Brandon Minor.

If you just want to skip to the heroin, here's an HD version of the final drive from Askarpo.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Koger	11
Dead simple pitch and catch for about five that Koger(+1) turns into 11 by running over McCarthy. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M31	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read handoff	Brown	-2
This play is one of the reasons why Michigan won't have any bubble screens for the game: ND is pressing and devoting a guy to play right over the slot receiver, and then getting aggressive with the safeties, hardly ever going to a cover-two. And this is much the same thing that Western was doing: ND shoots the backside DE down the line on the stretch and brings up a safety to contain the zone read. With the backside guy taking away the cutback, ND slants hard to the frontside and Te'o gets very aggressive, getting into Koger and making a TFL. Molk(+1) got a great seal, but Schilling(-1) ignored the second level in favor of ineffectually helping Ortmann, allowing Te'o to slash up.
M29	2	12	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Koger	4
Very similar to the first play but covered better—timing wasn't as good, too—and Koger is tackled immediately. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M33	3	8	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-2
ND comes off the corner and manages to get a guy in unblocked as Ortmann has two guys coming. Forcier(+1) slips outside the pocket, avoiding a sack, but finds no one open and takes a small loss. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, team)
Drive Notes: Punt, 9 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Forcier	8
Actually would have worked just fine as a handoff as Minor cut the ball up in front of the crashing DE and either would have trucked Te'o entirely or fallen forward for seven. Forcier keeps it on the edge and WOOPs Brian Smith. This is also the first instance of a tackling pattern we'll see a couple times: Notre Dame safeties come up and lead with their head, looking for a cheap, illegal killshot on Forcier. None of these connected, thankfully.
M29	2	2	Shotgun diamond	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Diamond screen	Grady	-2 (Pen -10)
Terry Malone used to love this. Here Koger(-2) just gets smoked by Sergio Brown, who blows up Grady in the backfield. Koger also gets a block in the back penalty. (CA, 3, screen)
M19	2	12	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Fly	Stonum	Inc
Stonum is running a fly down the sideline with a guy sort of in tow and plenty of room to the sideline and Forcier gets it to him. Stonum turns inside and ends up doing a 360 on a ball that was perfectly placed to the outside. He turns a very catchable ball into a circus attempt. It was open. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M19	3	12	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Fly	Mathews	40
Hey let's do it again on the other side of the field. Walls is running step for step with Mathews, but Mathews(+3!) skies over him and pulls in a one-handed circus grab. He's got hands. (CA, 1, protection 2/2). Good protection on both these bombs.
O41	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	11 (Pen -10)
Designed to go up the middle with Koger peeling backside to pick off the crashing defensive end. This is a counter-punch to the scrape and it works, as Te'o gets pulled outside and Schilling gets a free release into Smith as Molk(+1) seals Williams long enough. Ortmann gets flagged for holding on the playside DT, unfortunately. Guy got playside of Ortmann(-1) and ended up wrestled to the ground; a must-call.
M49	1	20	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Jailbreak screen	Brown	4
Um... we get a blimp shot of this play. This is the “bubble screen” formation OSU has derided by Smart Football... we run a screen out of it. It's actually open if Brown decisively and immediately cuts upfield behind an attacking linebacker and into open space. He doesn't and ends up slowing up on the linebacker/Ortmann pairing, picking up only a few yards. (CA, 3, screen)
O47	2	16	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Stonum	8
Simple pitch and catch ND is giving up because of the down and distance. Stonum does a good job to fight for a few extra yards. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O39	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Wheel	Brown	13
Awesome playcall that catches ND in a blitz and has Brown wide freakin' open on this little wheel out of the backfield. Forcier's pass, unfortunately, is considerably behind Brown but he stabs at it with one hand and juggles it, coming down with the ball and running up the sideline for a big gain. If accurate, Brown would have an opportunity one-on-one with the safety for six points. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone stretch	Minor	2
Well blocked on the frontside except for Huyge(-1) who cannot control his man and that guy closes off the hole between Koger and Huyge. Some of this play missed for a replay for a previous play; sorry about the lack of detail.
O24	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone stretch	Minor	22
This play hinges on two things. 1: Molk(+1) and Moosman(+1) battle and battle and battle with the defensive tackle, finally sealing him just as Minor slashes it up behind them. 2: Schilling(+2) cuts the living hell out of Toryan Smith. This was the exact block the left guard was not making last year.
O2	1	G	I-Form tight	2	2	1	Base 3-4	Run	Inside Zone	Minor	2
Minor(+1) cuts back and is met by two ND players at the one but spins off into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 4 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M24	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	0	2	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Brown	0
Schilling(-1) has his guy beat him to the inside and Brown runs up his back; the crashing DE tackles. Michigan was giving a triple option look here and should have run the option, or thrown the open, open bubble.
M24	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Jailbreak screen	Odoms	-1
Read well by McCarthy, who is there as the ball arrives and blows the play up. (CA, 3, screen)
M23	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	6
All deep routes here and apparently covered. Forcier waits and then breaks out of the pocket as he feels the DE spinning behind him. His pocket presence is really something. This time he's just scrambling, though, and not looking downfield. That's not likely to work on third and twelve. (TA, 0, protection 2/3, team)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-10, 10 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M18	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-5 (Pen +10)
Forcier gets spooked by a blitzer—cut but liable to get up—and scrambles out into a spy from the MLB, reverses field, and is eventually sacked. ND gets a holding call for grabbing Kelvin Grady. (PR, 0, protection 2/3, team -1)
M28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	2	Nickel	Run	QB lead draw	Robinson	1
You'll note the 1-1-2 above; Forcier and Robinson are both in. Forcier motions out to play WR. Koger(-1) gets blown back, disrupting the path of the play and forcing Robinson to wander around until he gets tackled after a tiny gain.
M29	2	9	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Grady	Inc
1: this is the wrong read since Grady's going to get lit up by a linebacker as soon as he catches it and Minor, on the outside, is wide open just like Brown was on that hitch against Western; Koger on the other side was equally open. 2: Forcier airmails this and it's nearly picked off. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M29	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Post	Mathews	Inc
This is another poor read as Mathews here is very covered. Forcier stared him down. Stonum is open on a slant for the first on the other side of the field. I'll give Forcier some credit for throwing this one high, as that's the only place he can put it where Mathews might catch it and it won't get picked off. But this is a super-difficult throw for no reason. (BR, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-17, 5 min 2nd Q. Shaky play from Forcier ends this drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M30	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-4
Zone read handoff into a bubble fake but this time ND isn't freaking out and the outside receiver is covered. Before Forcier can come off of him and to another receiver, a miscommunication between Huyge and Moosman on a blitz gets a linebacker through; Forcier attempts to scramble out and is tackled. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Moosman -1, Huyge -1)
M26	2	14	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Rollout deep hitch	Stonum	23
Koger to the side of the field flooded with WRs and covered up; he stays in to pass block, as does Minor, as Forcier rolls right. He pulls up to nail Stonum in between levels in the zone along the sideline. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
M49	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB sweep	Robinson	15
Robinson in. I don't think anyone else could dart up through this gap with three Notre Dame defenders bearing down from the backside. Schilling(+2) crushes the backside DT and though the frontside is jammed there's now a crease. Robinson doesn't see it quite quick enough; if he does he is probably gone for a touchdown. As it is he darts through the gap through a thicket of hands that slow and disrupt him enough for Notre Dame to drag him down after a first down.
O36	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB counter	Forcier	3
Not actually a zone read, as the LT downblocks on the playside DT and Koger pulls around to block the weakside LB who will scrape. Koger(+1) gets a great block and Forcier's on the edge; this is where I think he needs to cut decisively upfield instead of bouncing out, though I can see what he's thinking; if Odoms can get a block here he might be gone.
O33	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Reverse	Odoms	-4
Robinson in. Is this a reverse? There's no handoff but the QB is moving one way so it's not just an end-around. I'm calling it a reverse. Live I thought this was a dumb playcall but on review it's just a terrible job by Webb(-2), who completely whiffs his block and dooms the play. Savoy(-1) also whiffed.
O37	3	11	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Odoms	Inc
Two blitzers from over Odoms and Odoms just runs right into a safety with his route. Forcier wings it high. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O37	4	11	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Improv	Mathews	13
The first of Forcier's crazy magic scrambles, Finding nothing on his original drop and with blitzers crashing in from all around he jets out to the sideline, nailing Mathews in the numbers for a first.(DO, 3, protection 1/2, team)
O22	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	0	2	3	Nickel	Pass	Improv	Brown	Inc (pen offset)
Huyge(-2) gets beat and holds a guy, forcing Forcier out of the pocket again, where Carlos Brown breaks a route deep and gets interfered with. (CA, 1, protection 0/2, Huyge -2). The scramble drew the flag and saved Michigan ten yards here.
O22	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Throwaway	--	Inc
Pocket does not hold very well against a five-man rush; collapsing, Forcier jets and chucks the ball away as he's getting tackled. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, team)
Drive Notes: FG (39), 17-20, EOH.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	PA slant	Stonum	11
Not a read, just play action; It's a zone read play down to the blocking coupled with the bubble screen fake and Stonum running a slant under it. It comes open as the corner bails into cover-3 and Forcier hits him in stride; couple yards YAC gets a first. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M40	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	7
Appears to be the same play to the other side of the field; this time ND blitzes the backside contain player right at Forcier, not the RB. Forcier gets him airborne with a fake and rolls out for good yardage. (TA, 0, protection 0/1, team)
M47	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB lead draw	Forcier	4
Playside DT gets inside of Ortmann. Koger(-0.5) stalemates the DE but can't get any push on him. Michigan's caught ND in a blitz to the weakside and there's not much in the middle of the field so Forcier can cut back. This allows Johnson, the guy who shot past Ortmann, to come from behind and tackle. Everyone's momentum is going forward and Forcier picks up the first down.
O49	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	16
Corner blitz for the contain comes coupled with a linebacker charging down the backside; Notre Dame has overloaded there expecting to deal with Forcier. Instead, the handoff. Huyge(+1) reads that there's no one downfield to block and gets a bit of a push on Smith, which delays him just enough to open up a cutback lane. ND has closed off the frontside. Minor bursts into the secondary.
O33	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	32
This... this is a scrape counterpunch.  Video.
O1	1	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	Run	Iso	Minor	0
Think this is on Minor(-1), as Schilling pulls out of the line and loops around Koger on the right side of the line. That's where Grady's going, too. If Minor just follows those two guys he bounces outside for an easy six. Instead he runs straight ahead into a Notre Dame DL for nothing.
O1	2	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	Run	Fumbled exchange	--	-1
Merph.
O2	3	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	Run	Pitch sweep	Minor	-2
Great play from Brian Smith here to hold up against a double from Huyge(-1) and Koger(-1), then slash into the backfield and grab at Minor's knees when Koger leaves for a linebacker.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(27), 17-20, 11 min 3rd Q. Very dispiriting not to get in here. First and goal from the one, and you get nothing. ND fumbles the ball on the next series, though.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	6
Blitz comes right up the middle and Molk(+1) and Schilling(+1) stalemate the LB and then hurl him back. Moosman(+1) gets a great drive on Williams and Minor's got a lane he cuts into. Unfortunately, Molk and Schilling's attempted downfield blocks on the LBs, one of whom they've escorted from the blitz and the other they've picked up, fail, and three ND guys close on Minor after several yards.
O20	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	13
Same play Minor broke on the earlier drive; Ortmann(+1) gets a great, sealing block on Johnson and Schilling(+1) plows the lone linebacker in the picture, springing Minor right through the line and inside the ten. This might actually be a slight variant on the dive above. Anyone have opinions on this?
O7	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	-1
Tough to run against this since ND sells out, blitzing both linebackers and bringing the safeties up to act as linebackers behind them. Basically nine in the box. Moosman stalemates his guy and pushes him back, providing a small lane for Minor to hit up into; Koger's dealing with a safety, though, and Minor is slowed, allowing various members of ND's team to converge. Minor fumbles and loses three from the two yard run, but was well down by the time the ball came out. They mark it three yards back anyway. CONSPIRACY
O8	2	G	Shotgun empty 2TE	2	0	3	Nickel	Run	QB stretch	Robinson	5
Robinson in. Koger(+1) kicks out a blitzing linebacker. LB falls to the ground and gives Robinson the edge despite good push inside from ND. Huyge(-1) doesn't get outside of the linebacker, turning a probable touchdown into four yards. Note this is a TD, or an inch away, if the previous play is called correctly. CONSPIRACY
O4	3	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Rollout TE out	Koger	3
This is just badass. Notre Dame calls rock to our scissors and gets two guys out on Forcier immediately. It looks like he's going to get sacked but he pulls up and somehow contorts his body to get off an accurate throw to a decently covered Koger, who pulls in a slightly tough pass and falls in for six. (DO, 2, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-20, 7 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	1
Notre Dame better prepared for this after getting shredded on in three times on the last two drives. Schilling(-1) gets pancaked by Johnson—yikes—and the backside DE treats Koger like a pulling guard on a power play, crashing inside and spilling the play into the unblocked linebacker. Minor gets what he can, which isn't much.
M21	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Fly	Mathews	Inc
Plays like this are why ND was able to get away with being so aggressive: they're in press man and Michigan runs three vertical routes against one deep safety; neither corner has help and neither needs it, running step for step with the Michigan receivers. Mathews could sky over Walls like he did on an earlier pass but this one's out in front of him and out of bounds. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M21	3	9	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Flare screen	Brown	17
Five ND players attack the quarterback and are gone from the play instantly; no peeling back or responsibility here. So there's now three defenders, four blockers, and a ton of open space. A Notre Dame linebacker cuts off the outside, futilely, and Brown has no one to deal with until he passes the first down marker, when a corner chases him inside and into a safety. (CA, 3, screen)
M38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Forcier	4
Forcier on the edge with a ponderous-looking Fleming—foreshadowing! He jukes past the LB; the LB makes a diving tackle attempt that trips him up. Would have been a few more otherwise.
M42	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB off tackle	Robinson	1
Robinson. ND brings eight into the box and Grady on an end-around fake. Brown is in zone, evidently, and does not go with him, staying on the edge and causing Robinson to cut back into a morass of bodies in the middle of the field. Molk(-1) is beaten by Johnson, holds the hell out of him, and still watches the guy make the tackle. Avoids the call, luckily.
M43	3	5	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Jailbreak screen	Grady	3
Set up about as well as the last one but for Williams, who appears to be spying on a screen. He waits for everyone to clear, then follows the ball to Grady. I know this isn't really his job but I really want Molk to turn around and block Williams here. Anyway, ND funnels it inside and the spy makes the play. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-20, 4 min 3rd Q. This is Forcier's 50-yard punt. I like how disappointed McDonough sounds when it's a punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M36	1	10	Ace Twins	2	1	2	Nickel	Run	Inside Zone	Minor	6
Nothing anywhere in the middle of the line as three ND players pinch in and there's just a glob of people. Minor cuts back behind Koger, blocking down on a DE, and then cuts up past a crashing corner. Huyge(+1) has gotten an excellent downfield block on a linebacker and Minor rides up his back for a good gain.
M42	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	PA TE flat	Koger	20
This has been set up by the gashing Minor runs earlier, as Minor goes on a zone read fake against man coverage and the linebackers bite like whoah as Koger pulls across the formation as if to block the backside DE. Instead he runs into a hugely vacant flat; Forcier hits him and he rumbles for 20 or so. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
O38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Forcier	2
This is a keeper off the dive play that Minor's been running and Koger just faked, and it works, as the scrape backer is worried about the quick hitter and Forcier is into the open field. If he hits upfield immediately he picks up eight or ten; instead he tries to cut it outside and turns it into two. Not high school.
O36	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	6
Little bit of a different look as Koger is used as a lead blocker. Ortmann(+1) gets a great seal on Johnson, opening up a crease, but Schilling(-1) whiffs a block on the LB and a bunch of arms rise up to trip Brown up. You'd really like to see your RB run through this.
O30	3	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	-1
ND goes cover zero and blitzes like whoah, allowing Johnson to slant inside on Schilling(-1) and clock Minor before he can get to the LOS.
O31	4	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	31
Forcier explained this after the game: he saw cover zero and this was actually supposed to be a rollout pass but the LB beat him to the corner. So WOOP one cut, one set of broken ankles, one touchdown. WOOP. Not charting this as a pass, FWIW.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-20, 14 min 4th Q. STUDBOLT!
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Slant	Stonum	9
The bubble-slant combo that's often wide open. This time it's not at all, with #8 draped all over Stonum's back. Forcier puts it right on the money and Stonum makes a tough catch with a guy trying to rake the ball free. (CA+, 2, protection 1/1) Stonum is hurt for a while. He does return late.
M38	2	1	Ace Twins	2	1	2	Nickel	Run	Zone stretch	Minor	5
ND blitzing to the short side and Michigan running mostly away from it; Webb(+1) gets a good block on the edge on the SLB; Huyge(+1) stalls the DE and Minor can dart outside. Minor ends up blowing into Mathews, who's engaged with a DB, and falling forward for five.
M43	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	Inc
ND sends six and after an initial pickup, Huyge(-1) loses his guy. Forcier tries to escape but said guy starts tackling him, at which point he Malletts it downfield at Mathews, who might have been open, actually, but he can't get it on target and Walls nearly intercepts. Dangerous. (BR, 1, protection 1/2, Huyge -1)
M44	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone stretch	Minor	-1
Molk(-1) totally loses control of Williams, so there will be no cutback. Meanwhile, Koger(-0.5) and Huyge(-0.5) get driven back by ND players, forcing Minor to take a looping path to the outside, where he's met the linebacker who's drawn up into the box.
M43	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Post	Mathews	Int
Or... something. This is the miscommunication interception that Mathews took the blame on in the press conference but it's hard to imagine what the hell Mathews could have been running that this would have been an accurate throw for. And Brown is running a wheel right behind him so that should be his route. I think Mathews is covering for Tate, and this is just a huge mistake. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 31-26, 7 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M41	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	WR screen	Mathews	-1
Koger(-1) gets beaten by the ND DB and he tackles immediately. (CA, 3, screen)
M40	2	11	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB draw	Forcier	14
Forcier actually manages this despite Brown(-1) totally whiffing his block on the MLB because Molk(+1) has blown the DT back and Forcier can just cut to the right before scooting past the first down. He just avoids another attempted crown-of-the-helmet killshot from an ND safety.
O46	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Wheel	Brown	3
Not as open as the first but open. Like the first, this is considerably behind Brown and requires him to slow up and catch the ball, otherwise this could go for 6-8. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)
O43	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	-7
Brown fumbles the exchange. Shame, too, because Schilling had cut the backside DT and there looked to be a potentially touchdown-open lane straight up the middle.
50	3	14	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Wheel	Koger	Inc
Koger's wheel route gets him wide flippin open, touchdown open, and Forcier just misses him. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-34, 3 min 4th Q. Redeem thyself!
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Cross	Mathews	9
Originally looking at a wheel-post combo on the left side of the field, which is covered so he comes down to a checkdown, which is Mathews settling down between a couple people in a zone. Forcier zips it in. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O48	2	1	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	6
ND DE here reads the play and crashes but he goes behind his own DT to fill the backside gap this play hits up into. Reminiscent of Rutgers except no one is containing.  If Forcier keeps it would break big but ND hasn't shown this yet and they need a yard. Excellent block by Molk(+1) seals Williams and Ortmann just gets enough of Johnson to spring Minor through the line; that DE cleans up downfield.
O42	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-5
Good protection at first on a four man rush and when Forcier starts to scramble out a spy comes up to contain him. He dodges inside, pumps, thinks better of it, and is banged to the ground by an ND DE. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O47	2	15	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Improv	Odoms	11
ND sends five and Huyge(-1) and Molk don't do a good job of slowing down the guy coming up the middle, which means no pocket and Forcier has to scramble out. Just as that same DE comes up to sack again Forcier gets a pass off to Odoms, who's coming back for it. He escapes a tackle attempt and squeezes up the sideline for five more, somehow getting tackled in bounds. (DO, 3, protection 1/2, Huyge -1)
O36	3	4	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Odoms	7
This is well covered and the ball a little late, so Odoms has to go down and dig this out with a guy all over his back. Tough, tough, critical catch from a guy who before the last two plays hasn't been heard from. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)
O29	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Slant	Savoy	7
Opens up as the receivers cross as ND is playing soft now; Walls comes up for an immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O22	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Improv	Savoy	17
Huyge(-1) again starts getting blown back by a guy, disrupting the pocket. Forcier first looks like he's going to scramble right, then abruptly heads left, finding Savoy with a bullet he throws across his body at the five. (DO, 3, protection 1/2, Huyge -1)
O5	1	G	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Improv	Savoy	Inc
Here's a valid complaint that doesn't even get brought up: Minor moves early here and Odoms is moving at the same time: illegal shift. No call. This is a called rollout to the right with no one open as Odoms just gets body-checked to the ground (which is legal), so Forcier just runs around like a nutcase, finding Savoy again. Walls tips it, Savoy can't haul it in. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
O5	2	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Circle	Mathews	5
Wooooooooooo! (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 38-34, 11 seconds. Wooo!

Woooooo!

Woooooo!

Wooo—

Right.

Okay.

Right.

Should I send my daughter to Forcier's harem or am I still holding out for Tom Brady when it comes to siring the next generation of Michigan quarterbacks?

Sounds like a job for a chart (chart)

(Hennechart again; MA is "marginal")

TATE FORCIER

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Western Michigan	2	14	1	2	1	2	-	3
Notre Dame	5	20 (6)	2	4	3	3	-	4

(I'm going to put the screen numbers in parens from now on.)

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Western Michigan	-	1	1	1	2	-	-	-

I won't continue charting Sheridan, as… well… obviously. Denard didn't throw any passes, he just ran.

Forcier's downfield success rate* in this game is 19 / 29 = 66%, and it should be noted that a couple of the TAs were successful scrambles; our DSR metric probably underrates wheeling Jackson Pollocks relative to Navarre sorts since it files scrambles as TAs. Also, five DOs is a large number. That was a performance that, remarkably, just about deserves the adulation it's received in the aftermath.

So it's really easy to pick out that Terrelle Pryor has a 99th percentile skill in being huge and fast and this gets you #1 recruit status; two games in it looks like Tate Forcier has 99th percentile skill in accuracy on the run, pocket awareness, and (yep) moxie. I don't know if I'd trade Forcier for Pryor, and who on earth would have been able to state that without getting laughed at two weeks ago?

Okay, okay, there were some rough spots: that interception winged so far over Mathews head there must have been some screwup; Mathews blamed himself but he was running into open space so if it was an option route he got it right. And Forcier almost caused a cascade of BOOM MALLETTED jokes when he chucked a dangerous ball as he was being sacked. Also: Forcier's maddening tendency to bounce his keepers outside cost Michigan 10-15 yards over the course of the game. I assume that latter will be relatively easy to fix.

Nits, all. The power to destroy a planet is insignificant.

*((DO + CA) / (DO + CA + IN + BR + TA + BA); basically "percentage of times you threw downfield that something good happened." Marginal (MA) passes don't count either way, and pressures (PRs) are charged to the OL, not the QB.)

He did get some help.

Yes, he did. Receiverchart:

(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	4/4
Mathews	2	1/3	1/1	3/3		2	1/3	1/1	5/5
Stonum	-	-	1/2	3/3		1	-	1/2	3/3
Savoy	-	-	0/1	2/2		1	-	0/1	2/2
Odoms	1	1/1	-	2/2		1	1/1	-	4/4
Grady-19	1	-	-	2/2		2	-	1/1	3/4
Roundtree	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Rogers	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Koger	-	-	1/1	3/3		-	1/1	1/1	5/5
Webb	-	-	-	-		1	-	-	-
Minor	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Brown	-	1/2	1/1	2/2		-	1/2	1/1	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	-		-	-	0/1	-
Smith	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Moundros	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-

Notes: look at the spread here. Seven different receivers got four or more looks, with Mathews topping out at nine. Receivers dug out three catches filed as circus (Mathews's 40 yarder, the first Brown wheel route, and Odoms's critical third down conversion on the final drive) and dropped no balls filed as routine. You couldn't ask for anything more.

Brown is the clearly preferred option as a pass receiver out of the backfield. His speed and hands make him dangerous; that first wheel would probably have been a touchdown if it was thrown accurately. I bet Michigan uses him frequently against teams that are playing a lot of man.

Stonum's solid game may be the most important development going forward. Notre Dame was very aggressive on the corners because they didn't respect Michigan's ability to get deep and Stonum's the only guy on the roster who can put the fear of God into those guys, as he amply demonstrated on his kickoff return. That showed why he was such a highly-touted recruit. An earlier fly route showed why he's been stuck on the bench: he ran a great route that gave him three or four yards to the sideline, and Forcier used that room to throw a great pass where only he could get to it…and he turned inside. That went from a long completion to a ball glancing off his fingertips. So he's got work to do. But his career is officially off life support.

Protection is less cheery but mentally file this under "Tenuta":

PROTECTION METRIC: 35/50, Moosman –1, Huyge –6, Team –8.

That is not a good metric but that big "team" number indicates that a lot of that was just TAH-NOO-TAH sending guys from everywhere and Michigan either not making the right pickup or not having the ability to make the right pickup because there are just more dudes than blockers. Huyge, on the other hand, struggled, especially when Moosman went out and he slid inside to guard; he got driven back on multiple plays on the final drive and was a main reason it was so ridiculous and scrambly.

Any other reasons this offense has taken a quantum leap forward?

Yes: the coaches.

Take a look at the Michigan drive that ended in Darius Fleming's jock on the field and Matt Millen making up words via which to homoerotically praise Forcier. As described in Picture Pages, Michigan gashed Notre Dame twice early in the second half with a zone read dive that acts as a counterpunch to the scrape exchange. The third time M runs it the backside DE treats it like a power running play much like you see Michigan State run and runs up to cut Koger, which spills the play outside and results in zero yards.

Okay. They've caught on. Michigan immediately discontinues the dive stuff and finishes out the drive with a variety of other plays. When Michigan gets the ball back they run one inside zone out of an ace formation (odd) and then go to this:

1. PA TE flat on which Koger fakes the dive block and then heads out for a big gain.
2. Called QB keeper on the dive play that would be eight or ten yards if Forcier would just run straight upfield instead of trying to beat the corner.
3. Zone read stretch variant where Koger pulls but is actually acting as a stretch lead blocker. This gains six despite a Schilling whiff and would probably have been more if it was Minor running through a thicket of desperate hands instead of Brown.
4. The dive play itself, which loses a yard when Tenuta blitzes right into it.
5. Return to the PA TE flat, which ends up sucking every ND defender to Brown and Koger and leaves Forcier in the clear with one Darius Fleming.

That is awesome. That sequence is, in a nutshell, the difference between this year's offense and last year's offense. Last year, Michigan would rip off the two long runs off the dive and then the opponent would adjust, as Notre Dame did, and then Michigan would just be out of ideas because their quarterback was incapable of running and passing. This year, Forcier gives them the ability to set you up and then run one, two, three counters to their play (which was originally a counter!), all of which worked and would have gone for big yardage if Forcier had realized he was not in high school any more. And then they go back to the original, which Tenuta gets lucky on, and then they go back to a counter, which Tenuta does not get lucky on, and Michigan has a touchdown drive built almost entirely by the ingenuity of Rodriguez and Magee and the ability of Tate Forcier to MAKE PLAYS.

Michigan and their freshman quarterback and their unthreatening WRs and their almost total lack of NFL talent kept pace with a team running out a third-year starting quarterback, two future NFL receivers, and a veteran, talented offensive line. And the above is how. That is a decided schematic advantage.

Contrast this with the old Carr/Debord style: run the same play over and over and over again, out-executing them for little bits of yardage and setting up the opponent for one big killshot. Get predictable, and then break tendencies. Rodriguez only tolerates predictability insofar as he has to, and operates his offense as a coherent suite of plays that you have to guess right on lest you get gashed. This is not "rock rock rock," it's "rock, scissors, rock, rock, paper, scissors, candle, rock, wait what candle(?) oops you scored a touchdown." WVU's offensive standing was not a coincidence, and neither was Michigan's.

No offense to any of the departed, of course.

Why didn't the slot receivers get any play? Where were the bubbles?

This is why:

Notre Dame had a guy directly over the slot the whole game, which took it away. As we saw above, that opened up other things. Playing defense against this thing is like plugging a hole in a dike with your finger.

Heroes?

Forcier, and let's hand out some awards for the receivers, who pulled in three circus catches and dropped no 3s. They may not be explosive but they were utterly reliable. Top marks to Stonum for his kickoff return. Also, Sean McDonough really did this ridiculous game justice. Millen was pretty good, too.

Goats?

I've got Huyge down for a –6 in pass pro, which is bad. The team picked up another –8, too. I love it when Forcier runs around but I'd like it if it took a little longer for that to be the best alternative.

What does it mean for Eastern Michigan, and beyond?

Forcier's going to Favre a game away at some point, I think, when he runs around too long and fumbles or chucks an INT he shouldn't have even thought about throwing, but this offense will be in a position to Favre games away. It is the real deal, man, capable of running or throwing on just about anyone short of Ohio State, whose defensive line is probably going to devour the OL, and maybe Penn State. It's got a suite of plays that work together, any of which can bust long, and the receivers are really helping out with their hands.

This is no fluke. This is the Leap.