hockey recruiting

Exit these guys. Florida took a couple of hits in the secondary, one more important than the other. The important gent is returning starter Marcell Harris, who will miss the 2017 season with a torn ACL. That knocks Florida down to 3 returning starters on D—sounds familiar—and robs them of their best safety. Florida has talented guys waiting to step up but they're green:

Sophomore Jeawon Taylor and freshman Quincy Lenton, who were injured this spring, could be options to step in for Harris, but new defensive coordinator Randy Shannon could get creative with his roster.

Starter Duke Dawson is slated to be the next big thing at cornerback, but he has played safety and nickel during the first three years of his Gators career. Like Harris, he's a veteran leader who understands the position and has proven versatility that could prove valuable considering the circumstances.

In that same light, sophomore Chauncey Gardner was solid last year. He played in all 13 games, starting three at safety with 36 tackles and three interceptions -- one of which was returned for a touchdown. He's slated to start along side Dawson at corner but is certainly an option to move around if Shannon chooses.

The other hit is Chris Williamson, a second-year 3.5* cornerback. He's transferring. That removes an option in the UF secondary.

Another recruiting hire. A second former member of the SS Rodriguez jumps aboard:

Dudek had been Arizona's General Manager/Dir. of Player personnel, gives Michigan a good presence on the west coast, relentless recruiter

— Tom VanHaaren (@TomVH) July 22, 2017

Rick Neuheisel, proto-Harbaugh. This is terrific story from Rick Neuheisel in an excellent Jon Solomon article on coach paranoia in the aftermath of Wakeyleaks:

One year at the Pac-12 coaches’ meetings, Neuheisel wanted to increase the conference’s travel-squad numbers (60 players per team) closer to the Big Ten and SEC limits (70 players).

But Neuheisel knew he was toxic, especially in a room with so many big egos, such as Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh and USC’s Carroll. So Neuheisel had then-

Oregon State coach Mike Riley pitch the idea.

“Mike is the nicest guy in the world, so he pitched it to the ADs and we got 70,” Neuheisel says. “Had Rick Neuheisel pitched it, we’d still be at 60. No one looked at Mike Riley and ever thought there was a hidden ball trick going on.”

Harbaugh now faces this same paranoia at Michigan. He maneuvers through the NCAA rule book, such as taking the Wolverines to spring practice in Florida and Italy and holding summer satellite camps around the country to look for players.

“He’ll never get any legislation passed he wants,” Neuheisel said. “But if you go get Mike Riley from Nebraska, you’ve got a hell of a chance to get it done.

Keep an eye out for any Mike Riley pronouncements about the correct milk to drink.

Hockey commits. A couple of significant hockey commits in the past week. 2019 F Jack Beecher committed to Michigan over BU, BC, and OHL interest, and hoo boy this guy has some potential:

You can't teach wheels like this eh Johny Beecher? #TPHProspects #OHLCup @OHLHockey @OHLinsiders @NHLCentralScout @TheScoutDotCa pic.twitter.com/WqVsjMFc5M

— TPH Detroit (@tphdetroit) March 17, 2017

Johnny Beecher (NTDP U17) commits to Michigan. Former Salisbury School forward has explosive stride, good size, high pro upside.

— Jeff Cox (@JeffCoxSports) July 24, 2017

Other takes from hockey scouting twitter include "elite skater who drives play … lethal shot," "size, soft hands, and rocket shot" and "dominant tools." He's a 6'4" guy who has plenty of room to fill out and plenty of skill when he does. SBN's Jeff Cox:

Johnny Beecher, Elmira, NY, Salisbury School, Left Shot, 6’4”/210 - He’s a big time pro prospect with good size. He has decent to above average hands for a player his size. His stride and ability to protect the puck are both assets. He has that reach that you just can’t teach. He can put a puck out there, pull it back and rip a wrist shot on net. He drives the net and does a good job using his size down low and along the boards. He’s got that extra gear to win a battle along the wall and just separate himself from the defender to get to the slot and get a hard shot on net.

In January Hockey Prospect Dot Com ranked him 3rd in their OHL draft rankings; he fell to 85th because of his NTDP commitment.

Beecher is the first truly big-time recruiting win for Mel Pearson; he'll spend the next two years with the NTDP before arriving in Ann Arbor. Michigan no doubt hopes to latch on to fellow 2019 NTDPer Jack Hughes, a potential top 5 NHL draft pick and brother of incoming freshman Quinn.

The other commit is D Cole McWard, who Chris Heisenberg lists as a 2020. Less out there on him, but here's this tweet:

4 star prospect Cole McWard commits to @umichhockey. Skilled, puck moving D-man w/ poise, instincts & upside. Earned A- rating at #Select16s https://t.co/5Cwk59zbNQ

— Neutral Zone (@_Neutral_Zone) July 22, 2017

He's about 6-foot now and will grow.

The worst Freeze since the guy in the batnipple movie. I'm enjoying Dan Wolken unloading both barrels on Hugh Freeze, as it's something it seems like he's been waiting years to do. Now it can be told:

Whatever Freeze was doing to make enemies across the Southeast, it was often hard to distinguish what rival coaches saw as the greater transgression — the program’s loose relationship with the NCAA rulebook or his in-your-face piety.

Coaches who recruited against Freeze didn’t merely roll their eyes at him, and they certainly didn’t laugh, except when it came to the nickname a few called him behind his back: Jimmy Swag.

I could have been calling him Jimmy Swag for years if I had only known this. Alas. Wolken followed that up with another brutal missive:

There’s no reason to be coy here: Whispers about Freeze’s personal behavior have followed him since long before he became a college head coach. But at every stop along the way, it was difficult to do much with those rumors because so many people who were around him on coaching staffs and in athletic departments spoke so highly of him. His public embrace of Christianity, and the genuinely good charitable work he did, provided good cover and an easy narrative for all those glowing national newspaper profiles. Those who doubted his genuineness were written off as jealous or agenda-driven.

Sad thing about Freeze's behavior is it works. Once people believe a thing it takes an unbelievable amount of evidence to change their mind, and usually even that doesn't work.

Meanwhile Mark Schablach has a bonkers story on the sibling knife fight that is the Ole Miss-Mississippi State rivalry:

Robertson had been butting heads with Ole Miss officials for the past several months, since they denied his open records request for an unredacted version of the notice of allegations the Rebels received from the NCAA in January 2016. Robertson wanted the names of the Ole Miss boosters who are accused of providing improper benefits to recruits, and university officials wouldn't release them.

When Mars advised Tyner about the call Freeze made to the escort service, he told him that he'd shared the phone records with Robertson.

"Steve is obsessed," Mars said Tyner told him.

"Had anybody in this state done their job, I wouldn't have had to do it," Robertson said. "It got to the point where I was sick and tired of being sick and tired of it. I was willing to pass the baton to someone, but no one was willing to take it."

Robertson filed a complaint with the Mississippi Ethics Commission, which ruled in his favor earlier this month.

This random fan has been FOIAing Ole Miss for months so he can write a book named "Flim Flam," which is being published out of state. This is a hatred to respect.

Etc.: Michigan-Rutgers features in the Blowout Matrix. Entertainingly goofy early signing complaints from the expected corners. SUH THE DESTROYER.

Morgan has the most upside of the guys [Michael Caples/MiHockey]

Michigan announced a trio of additions to the 2017-2018 hockey roster. None of these guys projects to be particularly impactful, but there are enough of them to warrant a post.

One, incoming freshman Jack Becker, was already known. What information exists on Becker, a 7th round pick in 2015, was assembled in the first bit of the recently completed Epic Hockey Recruiting Overview. In a nutshell:

He'll be 21 in January and was only even somewhat productive in the USHL in his final season, when he put up a 16-12-28 line. … very large person at 6'4" … looks to be a project who will do well to get past the third line.

He's a big body who will be elderly indeed by the end of his Michigan career and could turn into a David Rohlfs sort; more likely he ends up on a checking line for the duration.

Grad transfer Alex Roos is either a fourth liner or healthy scratch sort. He had a decent freshman season (10-7-17) with Colorado College but dropped to 6 and 5 points in the subsequent two years. He had not skated for a single game as a senior when he quit the program in January. Most likely situation: Roos is coming to Michigan to actually get a post-grad degree and will walk-on for his final year of eligibility.

The third newcomer is LSSU transfer Luke Morgan. Morgan, a 5'11" forward, had 22 points in 36 games as a 19-year-old freshman with Lake State a year ago. This was a significant uptick from 25 points in 60 games in his only year in the USHL, which may indicate he's a late bloomer. He did score a winner at Yost last year:

Laker forward Luke Morgan decided the outcome with around three minutes left in the game. The goal came off a pass from J.T. Henke, and Morgan shot right behind LaFontaine for the goal.

And hey, we've got a breakdown of that goal. It is Michigan being utterly terrible on defense:

Henke hits Morgan, who’s a stride or two ahead of the chasing Michigan defenders. He’s basically got the time and space to do whatever he desires.

Morgan decides within a stride that what he desires to do is shoot. You can see in the screen cap below that the puck has been release from Morgan's stick while LaFontaine’s almost completely in his upright crouch. I can’t tell from the replay whether this went five- or six-hole, but it found a gap as LaFontaine was getting into his butterfly; he reacted a hair too slow here.

A guy walking into the slot without anyone near enough to even take a penalty with three minutes left in the third period. 2016-17 Michigan, I will not miss you.

Anyway. Morgan will sit out this year and then enter 2018-19 as 21-year-old sophomore. That's a four-year commitment to a guy who may not have a huge ceiling. Hockey scholarships can be split so it's possible that Morgan is only getting a partial ride and Michigan's risk here is low. Morgan is essentially an incoming freshman who can't play this year, so my assumption is Michigan wanted to add a guy and at this late juncture Morgan's 0.6 PPG in the WCHA was more appealing than various overagers still floating around out there.

See also: 2017 and 2018.

You know that thing where Lane Kiffin offers an eighth grader and we all have a good laugh at him? Yeah, that's more or less the foundation of hockey recruiting. Michigan has four 2020 commits. Ye gods.

2019

Just two commits so far. D Mike Vukojevic was ranked by The Scout.ca as the top defender available in this year's OHL draft and 7th best player overall:

He is a player who jumped out to us early in the season and remarkably didn't disappoint us once. An enthusiastic defender with a rangy skating style, Vukojevic impresses with his smarts and knack for making an impact every time over the boards. Raw blueliner with a high end ceiling and certainly one who'd excel if he chose the OHL route. He's adaptable joining in the offensive attack as needed and physical when he needs to be. He's earned the top D spot.

SBN's Jeff Cox:

Michael Vukojevic, #51 Oshawa Generals, Shoots Left, Oakville, Ontario, 6'2"/185 -€” He's a good sized defender with strong footwork. He moves well, is strong on gaps and stands his ground defensively. He keeps the play moving by moving the puck quickly.

He dropped to the second round because of his NCAA commitment, where he was picked by Kitchener. Kitchener is notorious for under the table deals with prospects but after looking at Vukojevic's twitter feed that doesn't seem to be the case here. Vukojevic retweeted every OHL draft pick of his teammates but didn't bother to RT Kitchener picking him; OTOH he did RT the Green Bay Gamblers making him the 8th pick of the USHL futures draft. Also this:

the pope has Michigan jordan's before i do https://t.co/xYos0NmhXr

— vuks (@mikevukojevic51) April 26, 2017

Finally, I can't imagine anyone RTing a general meeting for the Greater Toronto Hockey League—the junior B league Vukojevic was in last year and apparently this year—unless he was sticking around. Looks like the plan is one more year in Toronto and then a year with the Gamblers before Ann Arbor. (Plans, of course, are subject to change.)

Shattuck winger Phillipe Lapointe is the other 2019 commit; he put up 15-44-59 in 56 games last year. I have no idea how impressive that is in the context of Shattuck's league. A number of his teammates were in the same range but most of those guys were a year or two older than him. He'll be moving to the Lincoln Stars this season, and if he keeps up anything near PPG pace in the best NCAA feeder league that's scoring line kind of stuff.

Preliminary scouting is reserved. USHR saw him at the select 15s and gave him an honorable mention:

Philippe LaPointe, #18 Kelly/ Chicago Mission, 5-10/174 – Has a nice set of hands; displayed them on a breakaway goal in one viewing. Had inconsistencies from shift to shift, but there is more than enough skill to keep watching.

But that was 18 months ago. A lack of scouting since and his status as a third round USHL draft pick suggest that Lapointe is going to be a middle of the roster sort. The top scoring guys at Shattuck are currently headed to schools like Northeastern, UMass-Amherst (ie, not the good UMass), and LSSU. They've taken a step back from the Jack Johnson days. Cox did just see him at the U17 selects and called him the most improved player over the past year, so maybe he's on the way up and Michigan was the first big school to see it. 

Philippe is of course former Red Wing Martin Lapointe's son; I mostly mention it because these days the elder Lapointe looks like a man with a particular set of skills about to seriously damage a bunch of eastern European gangsters who kidnapped his daughter:

Don't mess with Martin Lapointe. He will break your arm and then brood you to death.

Michigan will continue adding to this class. They've got four scholarship guys in their rising junior class, two D and two F, and god knows what kind of attrition they'll suffer over the next couple years (survey says: lots).

The big fish still on the radar is Jack Hughes, the younger brother of Quinn. Hughes was projected to be the #1 pick in the OHL draft and was enough of a big deal to go eighth overall despite having committed to the NTDP for the next two years. The Scout.ca:

He’s in a class of his own and would arguably be the best prospect to play in the league since Connor McDavid.

Oookay then. ISS has him in their early top ten:

6. Jack Hughes (C) – Kirkland Lake Gold Miners – NOJHL
Arguably the most skilled player in the entire draft, Hughes at times seems to have the puck on a string as he weaves his way up ice. His hockey sense and creativity in the offensive zone are as good as anyone we’ve seen in this age group. Possesses an arsenal of moves and ways to create space; extremely difficult for defensemen to anticipate as he can make plays on the fly whilst moving at top speed.

Quinn may well be on his way to the league before his younger brother arrives on campus; nonetheless, the prospect of playing with his brother and Quinn's decision to go with Michigan should put M at the top of his possible destinations for an Eichel-like one and done college career.

Other than Hughes it's unclear who Michigan is chasing, hockey recruiting coverage being what it is. About 90% of the time the first anyone hears about a particular kid is when he pulls the trigger. There are all of two uncommitted NTDP skaters, neither of whom is from the area.

Upshot

This looks to be the class that was hurt the most by the late Berenson uncertainty and last year's level of play; Mel will have to use some of the tricks he picked up at Tech to unearth some productive overagers. Getting Hughes, even for a year, means woo go team and everything else is gravy.

2020

Michigan is sweeping through the top prospects on the Little Caesar's U16 outfit. All four of their 2020 commits are from the program. All of them are even more disgustingly young than the aforementioned players. At this point Michigan is guessing. Everyone is. Luke Moffatt committed this early; he was the top US prospect in his age group and ended up a seventh round pick and career third liner. See also: Mike Pastujov. Any assertions about these gents should be taken with a grain of salt.

Disclaimers out of the way, this appears to be a high-end group. Antonio Stranges led his team to a tournament victory at the top bantam tournament in North America despite playing a year up—which is an even bigger deal in this age group:

Leading the way was '02 underager Antonio Stranges who leads the team in scoring in league play. Despite lacking great size for the age group, Stranges is a high-end creator who is a bit of a puck wizard when it's on his stick. His consistent play throughout saw him not only receive a deserving nod on the tournament all-star team, but ultimately saw him take home MVP honours for his key play throughout the tournament. …

Doesn't have elite physical tools but his mind for the game and confidence when in possession with the puck make him the team's most consistent offensive threat, and the type of player who can find the scoresheet against any opponent.

Stranges also impressed USHR at the World Selects Invitational for the age group ahead of him:

Stranges has game-breaking speed on the rush and the ability to beat defenders one-on-one while keeping them on their heels. While we feel that Smilanic (see above) may have more pro upside, Stranges is an excellent college prospect we feel has the potential to be an All-American wherever he chooses to go.

Jeff Cox of SB Nation was even higher on him after this year's edition of the same tournament, giving him an A+ rating:

He’s the special player in this age group it would appear. He has a great first step and can really skate. He is creative and can do things with the puck that few can do. He made a few nice sauce passes. He’s strong, fast and thinks the game well offensively.

Have to figure he's a lock for the NTDP.   

Fellow forward Patrick Guzzo is the opposite kind of player, already a half-foot taller than the diminutive Stranges and potentially heading for Very Large Indeed. The Scout.ca:

A big powerful winger who can barrel his way down ice as he drives the net. Relies on strong puck protection skills to extend possession time with his long reach and good stick strength. Unleashes a high end shot and operates very well in traffic, displaying good touch with the puck and is always aware of his options.

USHR:

Big strong power forward is hard to miss out there. Will be an interesting one to follow. Quite young: he’s just an 11/27/01 birthdate. He doesn’t have to worry about growing, but he will, and could be very big.

Guzzo was a first round pick in the USHL draft because he's a late '01. That says something since he might not end up in the USHL long term. The Neutral Zone said he "shined" at the Select 15s and was a strong NTDP candidate. He's their #24 '01, though it's unclear whether that's Americans or NCAA prospects or North Americans or the whole dang world.

 

Michigan has also plucked two defenders off Pizza Pizza. Jacob Truscott committed shortly after Guzzo; while it's still early yet for OHL projections he's getting some early mention as a top ten pick, and Cox was gung-ho about him at the latest hockey showcase thing at which he appeared: 

Jacob Truscott, #55 Pro Hockey Blue, 5/24/02, Shoots Left, 5-10/155, Fort Gratiot, Mich. (Michigan) – He’s a great skater with an offensive flare to his game. He scored a beauty of a goal in transition. He keeps pucks going north and can defend with his feet.

Truscott reported that Wisconsin, Miami (NTM), and BU were on his trail before he committed to Michigan. BU is recruiting better than anyone in the country even if they can't coach that talent, and Wisconsin's going to surge here in a little bit.

Finally (finally, finally), D Ethan Szmagaj is the guy who sent me down this rabbit hole by committing. He's currently in the Hughes mold but since he's entering his sophomore year of high school he's probably going to grow some more. Currently he shades more towards offensive defenseman:

…competitor that quickly became one of this observer's favorite players to watch on the week. He's smooth, retrieves pucks, can skate out of trouble, has good vision and makes nice breakout passes.

Or just generally a pest:

30. Ethan Szmagaj, Little Caesars 16U, D, Shoots Left – It's not often a good defenseman below six-feet is known more for his toughness and grit than his offensive ability, but that's the case here. He's tough as nails, hard to knock off the puck and just flat-out wins battles. He's a good skater who retrieves pucks well and can skate out of trouble.

Szmagaj is also a late '01 and was eligible for the USHL phase 1 draft, but did not get picked. This baffled Cox:

'01 D Ethan Szmagaj commits to Michigan. Very hard to play against, competes hard and can skate. Still baffled no USHL club drafted him.

— Jeff Cox (@JeffCoxSports) June 28, 2017

Szmagaj is a crossfit person and his dad's twitter is littered with videos of Ethan doing things that make me tired just looking at them, so he won't be one of those guys who never touches a weight until he shows up to college; he's also got a couple younger brothers to keep an eye on down the road. 

Upshot

Once you get this far out it's extremely difficult to project much of anything except the very top end. Stranges seems like a good bet to be a first round pick. Unless he's not.

See also: 2017.

As we push further out with hockey recruiting things get fuzzier, and since a lot of these guys are at or near the top of their field now the only direction to go is down. Current projections, taken collectively, will almost certainly be optimistic as certain guys fail to keep pace with their competition.

2018

i must break you

NTDP defenseman Mattias Samuelsson is the headliner. Mattias is the son of former NHL defenseman Kjell Samuelsson, and like his dad (6'7"), he's a big dude at 6'5". He was ranked 7th and 3rd amongst available players for last year's OHL draft by HockeyProspect and The Scout.ca, respectively; a year later he's projected as a first round pick in the upcoming NHL draft. As of about a year ago, ISS had him in the top ten:

6. Mattias Samuelsson (RD) – USNTDP - USHL
The son of former NHL defenseman Kjell Samuelsson, Mattias is a tall, aggressive defenceman with a heavy shot and immense athletic ability. Standing at 6’5” and 228 lbs, he has a pro-ready frame and looks capable of stepping in immediately at the NHL level. Very difficult to play against when he is on his game; skates around with ease for such a big man and has shown the ability to simply take over games physically in the USHL. Plays with a real edge to his game and is happy to finish his checks hard, whilst still maintaining good reads and positioning in the D-zone.

One of The Scout's, er, scouts:

A defensive stalwart who is a lock for USA’s NTDP Under-17 program, Mattias Samuelsson is the top shutdown defenceman in the [OHL] draft. While Samuelsson displays good talent with the puck, he’s especially impressive with his rangy challenges – poking away pucks and getting in the shooting lanes of almost every opposing attack.

He's more or less maintained that status through the last year thanks to an impressive season with the U17s; he was called up to the U18s for ten games, more than any of his fellow defenders, and his PPG led U17 defensemen. With a full year of development in front of him he should arrive ready to step in as a top four D for M:

“I came in at 195 and I’m 215 now. I was skin and bones when I came in,” he explained. “Every day you are doing something. Your only day off is Sunday and it is much needed. Every day you are getting better, whether you are improving something or getting stronger. When you are on the ice, you are willing to do the little things, competing with the best players of your age every day. I don’t know where else you can get that, especially in the offseason.”

Samuelsson is a candidate to be the top D picked in the next draft.

[Side note: At one point Samuelsson's brother Lukas was also committed to Michigan for 2017 but he has not been announced as a signee. He could be a walk-on or plans may have changed. Hopefully his name does pop up on the roster; Samuelsson is the kind of guy OHL teams will be pursuing heavily after his NTDP tenure expires. Any little bit helps keep 'em down on the farm.]

Nobody else in the class looks like a surefire star, but they are tracking well.

Calen Kiefiuk's backhander has #WhosNext pic.twitter.com/m1TUL83fg8

— USHL (@USHL) February 5, 2017

Calen Kiefiuk signed a USHL tender with Bloomington and joined the league as a 16 year old. He struggled, putting up 11 points in 52 games, but that's what USHL tenders almost exclusively do—it's a brutal league for that age group. Kiefiuk is in fact the youngest player to ever suit up for Bloomington, and acquiring him through the tender system means they had to play him in at least 55% of their games—it's a major commitment. He had no problem scoring in his last year in midget, with a 36-44-80 line in 64 games.

Kiefiuk is a throwback to the Berenson teams of the 90s and aughts:

Calen Kiefiuk, #12 Grey/ Honeybaked, 5-7/181 – A ball of skill and energy. Constantly makes plays in all three zones. Hard on the puck, and relentless on the forecheck. Created passing options with little time and space. Protects the puck well. Mans the point on the PP. Scored two even-strength goals within three minutes in Sunday’s game. Left shot from Macomb, Michigan. (4-4-8)

He's a little dude who turns guys who check him into balls of hate. Jeff Cox:

He's an aggressive winger who plays hard. He's fast on pucks, gets after the points while killing penalties and disrupts opponents' flow. He had three shots on goal during one penalty kill against Red after stealing the puck away from one of Red's top defenders. He wins battles below the goal line. He sent out a nice pass into the slot from down low for a power play goal. His speed helped him blow by a defender in Tuesday's game against Gold.

Bloomington head coach Dennis Williams:

“…not only does he have a great knack for scoring goals and making plays but he plays the game right. He is a 200-foot player and has an edge. He competes every shift he’s out there and that’s what we look for. We want a great all-around player with high-end skill and that’s what Calen brings us."

Kiefiuk's size is likely to knock him down NHL draft boards—Chris Dilks put him in the "C" category for 2018—but that might be a positive for Michigan since a guy like Kiefiuk projects as a very useful college player. He could be a smaller, more ornery version of Andrew Cogliano.

Forward Jack Randl also signed a USHL tender, his with the Omaha Lancers. Like Kiefiuk he scuffled a bit last year with 9-10-19 in 59 games. He's also touted as a guy who flies around the ice doin' things:

“He’s a big, strong forward who skates well and has the ability to make plays with the puck. Every time our staff watched him he had a big impact on the game with and without the puck. His competitiveness and his desire to win are characteristics that we look for and want in our players.”

Cox had him second amongst forwards at the Select 16 camp:

He's a good skater who showed the ability to create offense from anywhere. He slows the game down and has excellent vision. He's strong on his feet and is hard to knock off pucks.

Like Kiefiuk, Randl is probably a mid-to-late round draft pick and long term productive college player.

Three more defensemen fill out the class… probably. Kenny Johnson, Jack's younger brother, has been on Michigan's commit list for three years already and is apparently set to take a second post-grad year, this one in the BCHL. That is highly unusual. 20 year olds who enter NCAA hockey generally emerge during their final season of junior and commit less than a year before they enroll. Sometimes kids know they may delay a year depending on how their team's roster shakes out; delaying two years can be a sign that the player in question isn't going to make it to campus for whatever reason.

Compounding my suspicion here: there are three other D in this class. Is Michigan really going to take four in one year? Maybe, if one of them is a healthy scratch PWO sort. Are they going to take four in a year when they lose just one guy to graduation? Is Johnson really down at that level now? I don't know. I  did see Kenny and his father at Yost once this year, so there's clearly still contact between Johnson and the program.

Anyway: the outlines of his recruitment are weird and point towards Johnson as a bottom pairing sort. FWIW, he had ten points in 49 games in the BCHL last year, but he's always been regarded as a defensive defenseman.

Two other D are more certain to arrive.

Like Randl and Kiefiuk, Jacob Semik is coming off his first year in the USHL. He went 14th overall to Dubuque and played well enough to draw USA attention. Semik got called up to the U17s for the World U17 challenge to replace Samuelsson, who was injured, and put up a PPG over the five games of the tournament.

Semik is somewhere between Hughes and Samuelsson: he's a mid-sized puck mover who isn't quite the offensive dynamo Hughes is. He put up 33 points in 48 games in his last year of midget but slid to ten in his first USHL season. But he's definitely got offensive defenseman potential:

Jacob Semik finally off the board, a bona fide first-round talent, highly mobile, highly competent future Wolverine D goes to Dubuque.

— Over The Boards (@OverTheBoards) May 2, 2016

Michigan commit Jacob Semik was strong for Red. Good, active footwork, moves fluid in and out of possession. Smart outlets/saucer passes

— Sean Lafortune (@SeanLafortune) July 18, 2015

Jacob Semik is interesting. Slick two way defender with good feet, a powerful frame and smart positioning. He’s a player to watch next year.

— Sean Lafortune (@SeanLafortune) March 28, 2015

USHR ranked him just behind Samuelsson and fellow NTDP big timer Bode Wilde at the select 15s:

Poised, two-way defender. Excellent skater, plus shot, could be a powerplay QB at the next level.

Cox likes him as well, naming him the third best defender at the Select 16. One more difference between Semik and Hughes:

His athletic ability is his biggest asset at the moment. He has good feet and mobility, can get shots through from the point and can join the offense. He moves the puck well. If he can learn to think the game a little better, the Wolverines could have an elite college blue liner coming to Ann Arbor.

Hughes is reputed to think the game better than aonyone in his age group, and Semik isn't on that level yet. I've seen the odd assertion from randos on the Hockey's Future boards that Semik could sneak into the tail end of the first round; it seems more likely he'd be a second or third rounder.

Finally, Alec Regula is a rarity: a kid who emerged from Michigan high school hockey to be a major prospect. He moved to the USHL last year after being a second round pick and at 16 was a regular for the USHL champs. The Chicago Steel finished third in goals allowed; Regula had just five points in 53 games. He's very much a defensive defenseman.

Other indicators of his talent level: he was a fourth round pick by London in the OHL draft despite the fact that he attended Cranbrook (that's a private school!) before his USHL move. The idea he was going to skip out on college was fanciful at best:

“The OHL Draft happened so quickly. I hadn’t talked to a team all year then right before the draft I played in the OHL cup with TPH and played pretty well. After that tons of teams were calling seeing if I’d be interested in the OHL route. I told the teams I wanted to play college, but London really liked me and decided to take me early. It was a great feeling seeing my name called; I’ll never forget it.”

Regula is the most boom-or-bust of Michigan's 2018 recruits, but he appears to be leaning towards the boom end:

"He's a player who's still a little raw in his development, but he has big time potential, especially with his size. He's mobile for such a big guy. He has good reach and length to his game in his own zone. He got caught flat footed a couple of times, but once he learns the position more, he could be a legit pro prospect. The Wolverines scooped him up following camp.

USHR thought he was "big" and "raw" but similarly promising. The Scout:

…high-upside defender who landed firmly in our Top 75 after impressing with his high-impact game. He moves extremely well in a sturdy frame and shows the ability to distribute at an advanced level. He’s a name that isn’t receiving as much traction as he should but he should turn heads at the OHL Cup. Just remember that you heard his name here first.

His development over the next year will be more interesting than any of the other 2018s. Have to imagine he might get pushed back to 2019 given the roster.

Upshot

Unless there's attrition that looks somewhat unlikely this class should slot in comfortably with Michigan's needs. The only forwards Michigan loses after this year are two healthy scratch sorts (Talcott and Porikos), Cutler Martin, Dexter Dancs, and Tony Calderone. Kiefiuk and Randl look to be long term college players and upgrades on the departures. They can fill in other holes with the kind of guys Pearson was picking up at Tech.

The D class is excellent. Michigan's certain attrition next year consists of just Sam Piazza, and there aren't any surefire early departures. Luke Martin and Joe Cecconi are both possibilities, I guess. Even if both go Michigan has plenty of cover. Unless there's the Michigan Hockey Summer to end all Michigan Hockey Summers the blueline is going to be capital-L Loaded in the near future.

With a renewed sense of hope I decided to check out the incoming class to see what's on deck for Michigan hockey. The answer is surprisingly pleasant given the long period of uncertainty that preceded Mel Pearson's hire. Then I kept going, but that's another post.

2017

There are twin headliners and a third guy to keep an eye on. Josh Norris was the 19th pick in the most recent draft after leading the NTDP U18s in scoring* and crushing the NHL combine. Norris sounds like a Carl Hagelin or JT Compher sort of gent:

… tough competitor that is willing to engage physically to win puck battles…strong skater that isn’t easily pushed off the puck. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he’s a good enough four-direction skater that he’s capable of playing the center position at the next level. … competes hard on the defensive end and plays a responsible game. … lot of his offense comes from driving hard to the net and winning battles for loose pucks, and creating opportunities by chasing the play. …. ability to handle the puck is fine, but it’s not an area of strength.

He'll play both ways and pile up points because of his physical ability, effort, and reasonable skill level. That skill level might be a bit higher than the above take, depending on who you listen to. His NTDP coach:

“He can hammer a puck. He can skate. He’s got a great first step. He competes, and he’s coachable. He’s got a lot going for him. I think he’s got a great deal of God-given talent. He is a heck of a kid and extremely coachable. Those items right there lead up to a player who has some ability and a bright future.”

Given the dearth of center talent on the roster Norris is likely to slot in on the top line from day one; he and Will Lockwood are Compher and Motte in search of Connor. (Connor is not on this roster.)

Side note: Norris's father Dwayne starred for Michigan State back in the day. Completing this odd circle of betrayal: MSU has a commitment from Mike Knuble's kid, Cam Knuble, for 2018.

*[He tied Grant Mismash with 61 points but took four fewer games to get there.]

also: 1 G 2 A vs Finland in this year's Five Nations

Quinn Hughes is the second headliner. He was too young for this year's draft by three months and is being mentioned as a potential first rounder next year… like, a first half of the first round pick. and if "5'9" defenseman who might be a top 15 pick" sounds awesome, you and I have the same taste in hockey players. Hughes put up 10-43-53 in 65 games with the U18s this year, and per Red that's no fluke:

Berenson projected Hughes as an “elite-skating, offensive-minded defenseman” at the college level and also called him one of the “top young defensemen” of his class.

“He’s really a special player, and we’re excited about the fact that he’ll bring an element to our defense that maybe we don’t have right now,” Berenson said. “He could definitely add to our power play. His smarts, his vision and his skating ability really separate him from a lot of players.”

Hughes is highly likely to slot into Michigan's first team power play from the drop and chase Eric Werner for the title of MGoDiminutiveDefensemanFaveRave.

There were some OHL rumors about Hughes that seem to have petered out after his brother also went the NTDP route. More about him in another post; he's a 2019 kid.

The non-headliner but maybe-guy-to-watch is Mike Pastujov. Back in the day when the Pastujov brothers committed, Nick (who is coming off a freshman year in which he had three points in 28 games) was much more modestly regarded than his younger brother. Fast forward a few years and Nick is one who got drafted, albeit in the seventh round. Mike went from potentially being the #1 pick in the OHL draft to undrafted after a few seasons of injuries and struggle. Scouting from way back when:

1. Michael Pastujov (#11 Black) 6-0/186 Honeybaked U16 (Michigan) - A strong and powerful skater who committed to the Wolverines along with his brother Nick, a '98, less than a week after the camp ended. He's a flight risk to the OHL, but he's a strong skater who drives the net well. He made plays happen from all over the ice, really dishes the puck well to his linemates and he wins one-on-one battles. He's a complete package offensively.

Clearly things have gone awry. The primary issue is his inability to stay on the ice. Injuries cost him almost all of his sophomore and junior years; he also missed about a dozen games with the U18s. He still played in 55 and could only put up a 9-15-24 line. Michigan will hope his indifferent final year with the NTDP is more about the injuries than his talent level. If he can repair this…

Slow first step

Pastjuov’s biggest issue this past season was his skating. His first step was really slow, which meant he lost a lot of races to loose pucks, and had trouble creating much when he did have the puck.

…then maybe Michigan will get a third headliner in the class.

Pastujov did get healthy enough to catch the eye again at the World U18s, scoring a PPG over a seven-game span as the US took the tourney title. Various scouting services, including the NHL's CSB, moved him from off their lists into the top 100—usually good enough to get drafted in the fourth or fifth round. He was nonetheless passed over.

The other three guys in the class are all overagers. All are 97s. Jack Becker was Pearson's first commit; unsurprisingly he was a flip from Tech. He was a Wisconsin commit in the long long ago. He'll be 21 in January and was only even somewhat productive in the USHL in his final season, when he put up a 16-12-28 line. Bizarrely for a guy with his profile, he was a 7th round pick of the Bruins in 2015. Becker is a very large person at 6'4", so he might have a shot to be a Ben Winnett sort.

Dakota Raabe could be a little fast dude who ends up on a scoring line or peter out into a checking line guy and penalty killer. He's a few months younger than Becker. While he steadily increased his production in the BCHL, a PPG as an overager in that offense-mad league is not always enough to translate to NCAA productivity. Incredibly, Raabe was only eighth(!) on his team in PPG. (He was 25th in the league.) This is not BCHL slam dunk territory. It's BCHL maybe territory.

FWIW, MSU's Taro Hirose was almost the exact same size and age coming out of the BCHL a year ago; he had a 6-18-24 line as a freshman. That might not sound like much but he was second on his moribund team in scoring and looked like their most dangerous forward when Michigan played them. Unfortunately this isn't a direct comparison; Hirose was a much better BCHL point-acquirer. He had 71 points in 58 games—a cut above Raabe, especially since he was his team's leading scorer by 15 points.

Raabe's head coach says he's got "elite speed," so he's got that going for him. Also his transition from a Southern California major midget team to the BCHL must have been a shock to the system. He does have some late bloomer potential:

“Being on the ice every day has helped me so much,” Raabe said. “My shot has gotten harder and I’ve gotten faster. I’d say my hockey IQ has improved as well because I’m learning how to play the game at a faster level.”

Berenson:

“I’m told Dakota is a high-end skater,” Berenson said. “He’d be one of our fastest skaters. ... It looks like he’s going to be a real good addition to our forward group, and the big thing is because of his speed and work ethic.”

He'll probably have an indifferent freshman year and then his second year will tell the tale. He's a good gamble for a team needing to fill roster spots during a transition period. He is very much a gamble.

Finally, Gustaf Westlund is a Parisian Swede who committed little over a year ago. He had enough about him to warrant an NHL draft profile from SBN:

…intriguing prospect as this was his first season playing in North America. …The left-shot center is a true athlete who oozes potential. .. very good skater. He has a long, smooth stride that appears effortless. He can really get going quickly and seems to have that extra gear. …makes good passes, has above average vision and has a soft touch. … an athletic player with above average tools.

Future Considerations took a look at him about a year ago:

…effortless skater who gets himself to smart areas of the ice to get a shot on net.  …good athletic frame, but is thin and could stand to add some considerable strength to his legs, core and upper body. …handles the puck well with soft hands and creative moves, weaving his way through traffic with a surprisingly long reach. …shot will become a real weapon as he adds strength and puts more velocity behind it. … has much room to develop. 

Berenson:

“We think he’ll add a little bit of everything,” Berenson said. “He’ll be similar to (Adam) Winborg in that he’s good with the puck, good without the puck, he plays physical, he plays hard.”

He put up 8-27-35 in 59 games in the USHL a year ago; not great but he was on a team that struggled to score. He was third on the team in points.

Westlund's move from overseas to prep to the USHL to the NCAA is a challenging route; like Raabe he's a guy who might not show much in year one but has the potential to evolve into a scoring line player over the course of his career. While he's a 97 like the other two guys, he was born in December—he's almost a year younger than Becker.

Upshot

Norris and Hughes are going to be college stars, and Michigan will seek to get two scoring line upperclassmen out of Raabe/Westlund/Pastujov. Becker looks to be a project who will do well to get past the third line. Given the fact that everyone in this class knew they wouldn't be finishing their careers under Red Berenson, it's as good of a group as is reasonable to expect and should patch a couple of last year's biggest holes—a two-way #1 center and a power play quarterback.

Jim McElwain, right. Used vacuum salesman, left.

Oh, man, this one's a doozy. I stopped calling people "horseface" around the time that Dennis Dodd toned it down sufficiently to blend in with the great mass of lukewarm take columnists. There has been a long hiatus from "look at this crazy thing Dennis Dodd wrote," then. That détente can last no longer after this:

"I think its an indictment upon society to be honest with you," he said during the SEC spring meetings here at the Hilton Sandestin.

Of course it is. The man who has won consecutive SEC East titles -- a family man with a couple of national championship rings -- suddenly found himself disproving a negative.

" … It effects family, it effects my employer because of something that is totally not true or has any basis," McElwain continued. "I will say this: At least it [looked like] me and not someone else in our program. I'll take [the hits]."

When Naked Shark Guy hit CFB twitter his vague resemblance to Jim McElwain was a covfefe: a short-lived, timeline-intensive twitter joke that burns itself out in a day or so. Nobody ever seriously thought that Naked Shark Guy was McElwain—his hair is too curly and his teeth insufficiently alarming. And yet here's this Dennis Dodd column that takes McElwain's strained protestations with the seriousness of a threat on the Queen's life:

McElwain, 55, is a stand-up guy like most coaches in his position. He's used to putting out fires, making snap decisions, taking blame when it is fair. But in the blink of moment, he became a social media victim.

The photo, of course, was not of McElwain. One report said had he had been "vindicated." Of what? Vindication is defined as, "clearing someone of blame or suspicion."

Except there was no blame to clear, no crime committed. The only connection was our brains seeing a resemblance and somehow believing McElwain was capable of such a pose. 

Unfortunately, the default setting on the Twitterverse was that had to be Florida's coach. Right?

No, you complete ninny, no. Dodd manages to get so upset about people making jokes about someone who nobody thinks is humping a shark that he self-refutes:

What's the big deal jumping to conclusions about a shark, a boat and a coach?

Common human decency, for one thing. When it was determined the man on the shark was reportedly a former NYPD officer, one wag wrote, "We finally have proof of what appears to be McElwain's innocence."

What about assuming his innocence instead of what looked like a badly Photoshopped pic? Instead, that indicted society McElwain spoke of took it way too far.

The whole thing is a magnificent edifice of farts based on a deliberate misunderstanding of jokes on twitter. Spurred by McElwain, certainly. His reaction to the situation improves my opinion of Michigan's chances this fall—this is not the reaction of the sharpest knife in the drawer…

"Ultimately, what do you want me to say?" McElwain said. "It's not me. I felt bad for my family and the university because … really?

"Here I am getting some real bad personal attacks. How ridiculous is that?"

…but there is some water too silly to carry. Or at least there should be.

Follow Harbaugh around and he gives you news. Jim Harbaugh can be odd and standoffish at press conferences—or even entirely absent, as he was after the spring game—but if you travel a long distance to be where he is, he spits out newsbits like mad. Satellite camp season is an opportunity to do this, and sure enough we've got some extra insight into next year's team.

We've mentioned walk-on slot receiver Nate Schoenle as a potential contributor; Harbaugh offers up some additional information on him:

"Nate Schoenle -- he continues to grade out as the top guy right now," Harbaugh said. "The competition is really going to rage on."

Harbaugh further confirmed that Ben Mason was a fullback and Brad Hawkins was maybe probably definitely going to play defense. On Hawkins:

"Brad Hawkins could be a safety." …

"What's transpired though: Don Brown got to him," Harbaugh mused. "Don Brown said that he talked to Brad and Brad wanted to play safety. I accuse Don Brown of some recruiting going on there. We haven't investigated the whole thing yet. But I think it's a little of both."

The WR flood and relative dearth of safeties always made that move likely, especially after Michigan realized it wasn't going to cram its class full with other guys and circled back on Oliver Martin. It's official enough that we've moved him to safety on the Depth Chart By Class.

FWIW, Hawkins did play both ways in high school, making 53 tackles as a senior at Camden.

Finally, Harbaugh announced that Grant Perry had rejoined the team:

"He's back working out with the team," Harbaugh told reporters following a coaches' satellite camp at John Carroll University, according to the Detroit Free Press.

He has a court date July 17th. I'd imagine that will be some sort of plea or diversion.

Two conferences with a scheduling agreement. The current state of the 14-team, 8-game SEC:

Alabama has played UT-Chattanooga 3 times since 2008. Tide has played Georgia twice in that span. https://t.co/tG3SEf1mC0

— Creg Stephenson (@CregStephenson) June 5, 2017

To be fair to Alabama, Nick Saban appears to be the only coach in the league who actually wants to go to nine games. (Because playing Tennessee is basically the same as playing Chattanooga to Bama.) That is still mindblowing. The problem is extensive and has no solutions. Auburn's trying to find one by moving to the East, where Alabama would not be a perpetual roadblock to the championship game, and that causes more problems than it solves.

The Big Ten going to 14 was immensely dumb but at least they didn't compound that error by continuing to have eight-game conference seasons with protected crossover games.

Real Housecoaches Of Destin. Meanwhile in the SEC, everyone is livid with the new, very boring recruiting rules, and they've got laughably flimsy reasons why!

Bielema said it wasn’t smart to host official visits during the spring of a prospect’s junior year, which is arguably the most important one academically.

They've got an astounding lack of perspective!

"I think it's reckless, really," Mississippi coach Hugh Freeze said.

They haven't yet muzzled their commissioner!

"I just fail to see how those things are the right decisions for football overall," Sankey said. "Those are the things that I'm not sure we got right."

They have even more flimsy reasons!

"December is a pretty busy time in the world of college football from a hiring standpoint," Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin said. "And you're now going to introduce that in the middle of young people making decisions? Plus you're pushing up the evaluation process, which I can't see how that's good for the young person or for the team."

Would Bret Bielema allow a recruit to visit Arkansas unofficially during the new official window? Dozens do annually. Do SEC coaches offer and accept commitments from kids two or three years out from this December signing window? Dozens annually. Does Greg Sankey interpret "football overall" as "the SEC"? Absolutely.

It's nice to see Waffle House Nation splutter about rule changes they don't like instead of rules Jim Harbaugh isn't breaking for a change.

Last one out of East Lansing please conclude the investigation. MSU has lost another couple members of the secondary:

Sophomore safety Kenney Lyke told ESPN on Saturday that he planned to transfer to Mississippi Delta Community College in hopes of eventually landing at an SEC school in the future. A day earlier, Michigan State confirmed that redshirt sophomore Kaleel Gaines was also leaving the program.

Rumor has it that several more folks are on their way out. There are the three players under sexual assault investigation and a couple more potential academic casualties. There's a real possibility MSU goes into this year with 75 scholarship players, the last eight or so freshman who MSU picked off from the likes of Temple in their late scramble to fill their class. Prospects for a bounce-back are dim.

Zaire incoming. The SEC did tweak their transfer rule so that former ND QB Malik Zaire could land at UF; he duly announced that was his destination shortly after. This is of interest to Georgia blog Get The Picture for obvious reasons, so Mr. Blutarsky took a look at Zaire's relatively brief on-field history:

He was spectacular in that Texas game, no doubt, finishing with a passer rating over 250.  It was all downhill from there, though, as he only threw one more pass in all of 2016 than he did against the Longhorns, on his way to posting a 106.73 passer rating as the back up.

He does bring something to the position that Florida’s lacked under McElwain:  mobility. …

if Zaire is supposed to usher in a new era, there isn’t a lot of time to restructure the offense to tailor it to his strengths, or, alternatively, for Zaire to learn Nussmeier’s system.  None of which is to say it’s not useful to sign an experienced quarterback.  Before Zaire’s arrival, Florida was looking at a choice of Luke Del Rio, himself a transfer, recovering from an injury that caused him to miss half the regular season, and redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks, who had a nice spring game, and… did I mention he had a nice spring game?

This would terrify me if it was ten years ago, when Michigan was still deep in their total inability to defend a mobile quarterback. It's still unsettling: first game with ten new starters, one returning starter is not a great space player. Don Brown has shifted Michigan to a 4-2-5 featuring a bullet LB in Devin Bush, though. Hopefully those issues will be mitigated even when Michigan's defense isn't the overwhelming unit they were a year ago.

I'll take it. Chris Dilks profiles Joshua Norris, NHL draft hopeful, and comes out with an encouraging comp:

As a player comparison, Norris reminds me a lot of JT Compher. Both are super-competitive two-way centers. Compher was ranked right around the same range for the NHL Draft(he ended up going 35th overall in 2012) after putting up similar numbers with the NTDP. Compher blew up offensively in his junior season at Michigan, thanks in part to some great linemates, but still projects as more of a solid role player at the NHL level. The same is likely true for Norris. He projects as a nice player at the NHL level, especially if he can remain at the center position, but one that probably tops out as a second or third line player, rather than a true star.

Adding a Compher-alike to any team would improve it, and Michigan more than most after last year's disaster. FWIW, Norris just competed at the NHL draft combine and killed it:

I don't think the combine is a big deal for draft position but that should at least indicate that Norris is ready to make an immediate impact.

Etc.: NCAA rules kill Sound Mind, Sound Body. Signs you may be in the middle of a Florida football season.