game previews

In multiple parts due to length.

Essentials

If you haven't gotten the basic outline by now you're to be commended on your remarkable ability to avoid information. The internet now possesses a frame-by-frame breakdown of a long run by I-AA Alcorn State in their body-bag game against the Bulldogs along with dozens of other bits less manic. Truly, no team has ever met the level of amateur scouting that Mississippi State just did from the Michigan blogosphere.

But here we go anyway…

Run Offense vs. Mississippi State

The maniacal maniacs of Manny Diaz will make this tough sledding for the Michigan ground game except in instances where someone gets caught out of position and Denard Robinson's sledding will have a new non-caloric silicon-based kitchen lubricant applied to it. MSU's hoping this won't happen, what with articles being written that quote "discipline" in the headline and stress tackling:

"Tackling is the other big concern with bowls because we haven't tackled a guy in five weeks," Diaz said. "So those will be the things we will all unfortunately find out together, whether we'll be ready to tackle in one-on-one situations. They're going to spread you out and make that a one-on-one game."

And other articles in which Diaz invokes "gap control":

“It’s all about gap control,” Diaz said. “They do some pretty good things with their run game. They’re going to ask you the questions and you have to have the answer for it. The issue with them is that if there’s a play when you miss the answer, he has a chance to go 80 yards because he’s so fast.

"With such a small margin of error, it might be our death.”

Can the Bulldogs do this? They've got a shot. Diaz points out they won't  be intimidated since their scheduled was littered with Heisman finalists, including the 6-6 controversy robot that won the thing. MSU held him to 70 yards rushing on 18 attempts and 136 yards passing in a 17-14 loss; if they do the same to Michigan and give up 17 points they won't be losing.

The basic philosophy of the MSU defense is evident in their first drive against LSU. It's evident everywhere all the time but this is a particularly emblematic bit:

Blitz, blitz, blitz from everywhere. Eight guys on the LOS on first down run blitzing like nuts. On passing downs heavy doses of zone blitz, and on third and two there's a specific rollout contain blitz from a linebacker. MSU doesn't blitz like Michigan blitzes: as the changeup.

This has been highly effective no matter what metric you grab. MSU is 19th in rushing defense against a fairly tough schedule—they didn't play anyone in the nonconference but got stuck in a brutal SEC West (or "Legends," whatever)—and obliterated a few actual teams along the way:

The problems usually came in the form of big gains, like a 56-yard Julio Jones run by Alabama, a 64-yard Knile Davis run by Arkansas, and even the aforementioned long touchdown by the Alcorn State Acorns.

The ruthless math of blitzing is that when you're wrong, you're really wrong. Mississippi State has not found a way to defy this, but they're good enough that you're going to be in second and long lots and unless you rip off a long one you're not cracking 5 YPC even if you've got Cam Newton. They also managed to give up 24 points to a 4-8 Conference USA team a week after holding Florida to seven—unpredictability is inherent in the system.

This begins to be old hat but the numbers above indicate a certain difficulty with spread systems—Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas had three of the top four rushing days against the Ole Miss defense. As you can see above and Georgia found out in their loss to MSU early in the year, the question you're asking when you line up under center and run pro-style at this thing is "do you know how much I like second and long?" Michigan's spread will pull linebackers outside and ask questions of the safeties, who I liked in the Georgia game but Alcorn State (and everything else) analyst Blue Seoul has consistently dogged for things like that still above, wherein #5 is in the midst of pulling a Random Michigan Safety Since Marcus Ray With The Exception Of Jamar Adams-level boner.

As far as individual Mississippi State players, the defensive line is a who's-who of reasons Jay Hopson was a bad idea. He tried and failed to acquire three fourths of their starting DL. One was longshot JUCO Pernell McPhee; the others were high school kids Fletcher Cox and Josh Boyd. Neither could escape Mississippi's immense gravitational field, and even trying has seen Hopson move to Memphis. Within two years he'll be in the event horizon.

Anyway, on tape none of these guys are great. McPhee is the best, a fairly disruptive (9.5 TFLs) DT who leads the line in tackles with a respectable 32 and can penetrate if given a one-on-one matchup. Boyd is also a guy who can beat a block and make a play. No one really gets to the QB but that's another show.

Key Matchup: Denard Robinson and possibly others in space against Mississippi State safeties. The very nature of this defense and this offense demands that this matchup happens several times. Sometimes it will be behind the LOS and bad for Michigan. Sometimes it will be downfield with one guy between Denard, paydirt, and 5 YPC. Note that the situation with Alcorn State victim above got bad at the end of the year. He was replaced for the Arkansas game, not that it mattered as Mallett went ham.

Pass Offense vs. Mississippi State

Chris White is white. Also he sacks people sometimes.

Here's a spot the Bulldogs might be vulnerable thanks to that blitz-mad philosophy. MSU's 89th in pass defense and while they're considerably better in efficiency terms at 50th, Michigan rolls into the game with the 24th ranked pass efficiency offense thanks to a wide variety of long gains that happen when people freak out about Denard Robinson and forget about 'Tree and company.

Michigan's got a reputation as a run-mad team where receivers go to die but if you flip over to the actual stats you'll see Roy Roundtree behind only a trio of Indiana receivers in receptions per game. He's 37 yards short of Jeremy Ebert's conference-leading 919 receiving yards, and most of those were not screens—teams have been taking away the bubble just about the whole year. If he hadn't gotten a severe case of the dropsies late in the season Roundtree would have led the conference in yards.

The reason a slot receiver has gone ham this year is because of the guy throwing it to him. Teams bring up a safety, then they bring up another safety, then they watch Roundtree fly down the field behind those guys. Opponents that have played it safe have held him in check, however. Conservative Big Ten cover two archetypes Iowa and Michigan State held him to a total of 58 yards, but both had the luxury of doing so because Michigan's offense rolled down the field only to turn the ball over in the redzone in both games.

It's not like Michigan is going up against a defense anything like that anyway. MSU is aggressive to the extreme. Their results to date show a vulnerability…

…but unfortunately for Michigan it appears it's a vulnerability to good pro-style quarterbacks who either have the protection to slice apart the defense or the arm and devil-may-care attitude to zing it into tough places MSU gives up by design. You'll note that Auburn has the best performance outside of the pro-style slingers. Auburn was wildly run-biased in that game, especially since two of the throws were trick plays for former QB Kodi Burns and a few more were screens, and it got them their worst scoring output of the year. Michigan should learn the lesson from that game and move first-down playcalling much closer to a 50-50 split unless they have some indefensible magic rushing gameplan.

When Michigan does pass, pickups will be key. The Diaz philosophy is evident in the numbers. His leading sack guy is linebacker Chris White with six. Number two is linebacker KJ Wright. Five different defensive backs have tackled the quarterback in the backfield when he attempts to throw the ball. Since no MSU defensive lineman has more than two and a half sacks and Michigan's offensive line has combined with Denard's legs to provide mostly fantastic pass protection, most pressure on Denard will come via unblocked rushers. On the one hand, that's a Diaz specialty. On the other, pickups equal time equal trouble for MSU because…

The Mississippi State secondary is shaky. They did not impress in the Georgia game and Blue Seoul's comprehensive evaluation of the Bulldogs hammers this point time and again:

Ark. #7 takes it to the house on a 60+ yarder on a student body left type play.  Again, these DBs will give up big plays against real speed.  Thankfully we've got a lot of that at WR. (not so much at RB, this would be a great team for Carlos Brown to play against). MSU's #7 let himself get blocked on the play when he didn't need to and could've saved the TD (14 yards downfield, but that's still better than a TD)

All the blitzing covers up for that, but it'll be interesting to see who wins that back-and-forth battle. Michigan opponents have been terrified to get after Robinson in the pocket since a missed tackle (or even a poor choice of rushing lane) is a big gain waiting to happen, especially if you have the cajones/stupidity to put man coverage behind your blitz. Robinson is going to see a ton of zone blitzes.

On conventional downs this game cries out for a heavy does of QB Draw Oh Noes. The thing that leaps off the tape about the LSU game above is just how aggressively the Bulldog defense reads run. Mallett also nailed one of the MSU safeties for an 88-yard TD on play action in the Arkansas game—these guys scream downhill. Michigan has gashed opponent after opponent with Denard's one-man play action and there probably isn't a team on the schedule more naturally vulnerable to the play than MSU. The Bulldogs will be trying to coach their players up on it but when your entire philosophy is built around maniacal aggression it's tough to beat that now well-worn instinct out of players.

Key Matchup: Magee versus Diaz, and in the event of a favorable outcome there Denard versus His Shoulder. There will be opportunities for explosive plays if Magee catches Diaz in the wrong call.

The Essentials

The Story

Michigan has quietly surprised early in the year, running up a 10-2 record, including a couple solid wins over the likes of Clemson, Harvard, and Oakland. They've already shifted expectations, but knocking off a ranked team in-conference would finally announce to the nation that they intend to seriously compete for an NCAA Tournament bid well into the new year.

Of course, it won't be easy, as Purdue brings a talented squad into Crisler Arena, including Ja'Juan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore, who passed up the chance to leave school early for the NBA last season, to reach new heights in Boilermaker uniforms. Though the Boilers will still be without sophomore sharpshooter Jon Hart, out another week or so with injury, they have the talent and experience advantages over the Wolverines.

Aside from Johnson (similar to Oakland's Keith Benson, but probably better) and Moore, the diminutive Lewis Jackson plays a key role for the Boilers, as the 5-9 junior is just outside the national top-100 in assist rate, and plays the better half of available minutes. DJ Byrd and Ryne Smith are other effective offensive players, but with only so many possessions to go around, they get a lot of playing time but don't hog the ball.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

With a few games under each team's belt, it's finally reasonable to look at the stats. If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

This is as close as Michigan's come since I've been writing the mgopreviews to matching up toe-to-toe with a really good opponent. The emergence of a couple pretty good defensive rebounders in Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan have wiped out last year's consistent advantages for the opponent on both ends of the boards. Michigan's switch to almost-excusive man defense hasn't hurt, and though it means the Wolverines don't force tons of turnovers anymore, opponents are having a tough time making their shots.

The Boilermakers are pretty good in the turnover department, elite at both holding on to the ball and forcing the opponents to turn it over themselves. The emergence of Darius Morris as an elite point guard (90 assists and just 30 turnovers this season) will hopefully mean that the Wolverines can change that trend.

Thus far this season the teams' numbers have been racked up against approximately equal competition. Both beat Oakland at home, took care of a solid ACC team on the road (though Purdue needed overtime to take down Virginia Tech), and have another top-100 win in their own gym, to go along with a smattering of lesser opposition that they've easily dispatched. The only true difference is the lack of two good opponents for Purdue in their Feast Week tournament, as they lost to Richmond, whereas Michigan took home a loss to a very good Syracuse team and a merely decent UTEP squad.

Predictions

Crisler Arena hasn't been a house of horrors for any Big Ten team, and since Purdue has been solid-to-excellent for the past several years, they won't be afraid of coming into the House that Cazzie Built. If Michigan wants to win, it's execution and effort, not intimidation, that will do the trick.

I have a good feeling about this game, as the teams' resumes really aren't that different at this point in the year, except for the Wolverines' defeat to UTEP (for which they don't receive a mulligan, but Purdue didn't have to face as good of opposition on back-to-back nights as the Wolverines). However, Purdue has the air of a team that's been there before, whereas the Wolverines still have some growing up to do in order to make it to the tournament on any given year, much less four straight as the Boilers have done.

Because this Wolverines team is so young, I think a mistake here and a mistake there is enough to doom them against Purdue. Darius Morris picks up another double-double, as does Zack Novak, but Purdue pulls away at the end, winning 67-58.

Elsewhere

Hammer and Rails previews the game. UMHoops goes into more depth on Purdue's team.

The Essentials

The Story

Michigan has quietly put together a solid start to the 2010-11 season, with a small handful of games against top competition amongst blowouts over the weaker sections of Division 1. Oakland, on the other hand, has been tested in nearly every game this year, losing to top-20 competition in West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State before finally getting a showcase win against Tennessee on Tuesday. All of those were on the road except the Michigan State game, played at the Palace of Auburn Hills, a "neutral site" that skewed pro-Spartans.

The Golden Grizzlies are tested, and not a team Michigan can bully around in Crisler Arena tomorrow. They have to be concerned about the inverse. Oakland has an excellent duo in 6-11 center Keith Benson, a likely NBA Draft pick this spring, and diminutive junior guard Reggie Hamilton. PF Will Hudson has good size at 6-9 and leads the team in eFG% without attempting a single 3-pointer. With a number of capable role players to round out the roster (though erstwhile Wolverine Laval Lucas-Perry is ineligible to compete until next season), this is a solid squad.

Michigan, meanwhile, has had a nasty habit playing to the level of their competition--which has been mostly down. Their last time out was an uninspiring performance against North Carolina Central which featured abysmal shooting and indecisive offense, especially against zone. A young team like the 2010-11 Wolverines could use an early confidence booster, but Oakland may not provide it. With a win over the Golden Grizzlies, Michigan has a good chance to play themselves into the NIT during the Big Ten season.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

With a few games under each team's belt, it's finally reasonable to look at the stats. If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

Oakland's tempo-free numbers aren't that impressive, but considering the schedule they've been doing it against, they're performing well. Michigan has a big advantage in holding onto the ball, while the Grizzlies have an advantage in not sending Michigan to the line.

The size of Oakland may give Michigan troubles, as the interior defense has been OK at best for most of the year. Drawing charges early against Utah got Jason Washburn and David Foster into foul trouble early, negating Michigan's height disadvantage. If they can get Oakland's talented big man into trouble early, they should be able to succeed on both ends of the court with Benson on the bench. Michigan's depth among big men has improved with the emergence of Jon Horford, so they can afford giving up a couple fouls trying to draw charges.

Making good decisions offensively will be another key for the Wolverines. Though they haven't been turning the ball over much, shot selection has been questionable lately. Players were passing on open shots against NC Central, and then forcing well-defended shots later in the shot clock. Taking what's available will make the offense run much more smoothly.

Predictions

Oakland isn't going to come into Crisler Arena scared of the atmosphere. They've played in tougher venues several times this year (and against better teams, too). However, they may be out of gas early in the game, and have a letdown from finally getting that big-name win (or even a look-ahead to Ohio State on Thursday). At the first TV timeout, I think Michigan will have a small lead.

However, by halftime, I think the Grizzlies will have settled into a groove, so Michigan will have to get the confidence rolling early, knock down some shots, and hopefully get out on the break a little bit. The game should be within a couple possessions either way at the half.

The Wolverines have a tough task to handle against the best post player they've seen so far, and this will probably be the first time we see a Wolverine foul out this season. That means more evenly-distributed minutes than we've seen lately among the big men, an a lot more Colton Christian.

At the end of the day, I think Michigan's players and coaches will have good focus in preparation for this game, as they understand its importance. This could be the difference between the NIT or no postseason. That motivation, and the biggest crowd we've seen at Crisler this year (tickets available here) will help the Wolverines pull out the win, by a 69-62 score.

Elsewhere

Golden Grizzlies Gameplan previews the game, and UMHoops talks with Corey about the game. There's also the usual preview from UMHoops.

The Essentials

*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.

The Story

These two teams squared off last year in Salt Lake City, with the Utes emerging victorious in an ugly 68-52 contest. Both of these teams have changed a lot in the year (exactly!) since that game, however. If it were to be played again with only current players' scores counting, the final score would be 16-15 in favor of the Wolverines. Yay! WE WON!

Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were Michigan's only double-digit scorers in that game with 25 points and 10 points, respectively, and neither suits up in maize and blue anymore. Zack Gibson, Laval Lucas-Perry, and Anthony Wright all played at least 10 minutes in that contest, and aren't in Ann Arbor anymore. Even Eric Puls and Ben Cronin(!) got playing time in that game, and are no longer playing basketball. On the positive side of the ledger, Zack Novak had the flu and didn't travel. Darius Morris, Stu Douglass, Eso Akunne, and Matt Vogrich are the only players still on the team from that game.

The Utes have experienced similar turnover, though maybe not to such an alarming degree. Marshall Henderson (22) Carlon Brown (12), Luka Drca (12), and David Foster (10) were the leading scorers in that game, and only David Foster "my name distinctly lacks a Wallace" returns as a defensive specialist. Among other departures for Utah are Kim Tillie and Jordan Cyphers.

The players to watch for Utah are junior forward Will Clyburn, a Detroit native who's the team's leader in shooting and 3-point attempts, junior guard Josh Watkins and his older brother, senior forward Jay, and sophomore center Jason Washburn, a 7-footer who leads the team in blocks and is one of the top rebounders.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

With a few games under each team's respective belts [Ed-M: ours is the one without the obnoxious buckle], it's finally reasonable to look at the stats. If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

The Wolverines, with their personnel turnover, are a very different team than we saw last year. They've displayed some competency shooting the ball(!!!!), and have gone from a very bad rebounding team to a solidly above-average one. In the meantime, the Utes have gone in the opposite direction in each of those metrics, and have also gotten much worse in opponents' shooting.

The more things change, the more they stay the same, though. The Utes are yet again one of the tallest teams in the country, with an average height just over 6-6. Teams with size gave Michigan a host of troubles last year, but now... well, the maize-and-blue has a bit of height of their own. Adding a 6-6 small forward, a pair of centers with legit size, and a couple power forwards that aren't (very) generously listed at 6-5 can work wonders.

The one thing the 2010-11 Utes truly do well is get to the free-throw line, which is unsurprising given their size. However, they've played a motley crew of tiny opponents (and an oddly well-sized but horrible Pepperdine team), and Michigan should have the best combination of size and skill they've seen.

The factors that have the greatest effect on their efficiencies are shooting on offense (which is a huge advantage for Michigan) and offensive turnover percentage (a big advantage for the Utes).

Predictions

Utah hasn't played a team with both the size and skill of Michigan, which should give them trouble. However, Jordan Morgan struggled against Concordia (which, you may note, is an NAIA school that started a 6-5 center), so expect Utah to get some production on the interior, and frustrate Morgan at times.

However, I think Michigan's letdown game against the Cardinals will serve as a serious wakeup call that they can't sleepwalk through any game, so they'll have a renewed focus against the Utes. That means a snap back to form for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Evan Smotrycz, with Darius Morris continuing his run of strong play.

Chances to look stupid:

Tim Hardaway Jr. or Jordan Morgan becomes the first Wolverine to foul out this season. Darius Morris records his third double-double of the year. Zack Novak puts together a solid game statisticaly to make up for missing last year's contest. Both teams trade some blows, but at the end of the day, I see a 70-58 game in favor of the Wolverines.

Essentials

Image at right via reader Brian Walline.

Run Offense vs. Ohio State

You know, from skimming the Ohio State blogs in my reader I'd picked up a narrative of safety injuries and a somewhat disappointing performance from the defensive line that led me to believe the OSU defense was something less than its usual self. Then I go and check the stats as I do and they're third in rushing and total defense. They are fifth in pass defense. This is nationally, not in conference. So… not so much.

As anyone who's followed the Gordon Gee-Boise/TCU spat knows, a weak schedule has something to do with that. OSU has not played the Big Ten's #1, #4, or #5 offense and is the #2 offense.. They've had almost the kindest league schedule possible to date. However, in their matchup against #3 Wisconsin the Badgers only managed 330-some yards of offense; Iowa was held under 300. Do not be taken in by complaints about Orhian Johnson or fretting about freshman Christian Bryant—this is a smokescreen.

The sack-excluded numbers in the league (minus Indiana, which didn't seem even slightly relevant) reflect this:

College teams average 4.9 yards an attempt when you take out sacks; Ohio State has been somewhere between good and ridiculous through the Big Ten. This is not a huge surprise given the overall numbers.

Michigan's rushing offense is almost as shiny in the national stats at tenth. They have four triple option teams ahead of them—on a YPC basis they're fourth nationally. The last couple weeks opponents have really truly dared Denard Robinson to throw by putting a linebacker over the slot receiver and moving their safeties up into the box (Purdue) or just outside of it (Wisconsin). Rain and a crappy half for Robinson (plus a worse one for the defense) allowed both opponents to get away with their hyper-aggressive defenses. In the second half Robinson started hitting receivers who found themselves in single coverage deep and Michigan ripped off touchdowns on four of five drives, with the fifth headed inside the Wisconsin twenty before a Roundtree drop led to the inevitable batted-ball-to-INT combo.

There are risks involved with going so aggressive, especially when your safeties are indeed injury-plagued and young, and it doesn't seem like Tressel's style to go damn-the-torpedoes. It doesn't look like he'll have to, anyway, with those numbers above. I predicted Wisconsin would back off and Michigan's run game would bounce back. The former definitely didn't happen and the latter may have looked like it did but that relies heavily on a couple of meaningless draws at the end of the first half. This week, Ohio State probably will back off and it will be something like a fair fight on the ground.

Given OSU's results to date expecting something magnificent is foolhardy. The most relevant game above is probably the Illinois game, in which heavy wind and Nathan Scheelhaase's youth—that was his first Big Ten start—gave the Buckeyes an idea of what was coming before the snap. Michigan does have a better rushing offense than the Illini—they're about eight tenths of a yard to the good—and should provide more threat through the air than Scheelhaase, so you can/should expect something more effective than 4.1 YPC. Hitting 4.5-4.8 seems realistic. They'll need more than that to win, though.

Key Matchup: Denard versus Last Safety To Daylight. Okay, I'll take the bait: if safety is a weakness for the Buckeyes, Michigan might be able to spring a long touchdown on the ground, which would be nice.

Pass Offense vs. Ohio State

If Orhian Johnson is three times worse than Ohio State fans say he is we've got it in the bag.

Denard Robinson's sustained bout of inaccuracy lasted until halftime of the Wisconsin game, after which he was ruthlessly effective. He hit several downfield passes, picked apart the Wisconsin zone, and landed himself almost 10 YPA by the time the day was over. That's not enough to dismiss the previous three or four games, in which Robinson slew scoring drives by the hundreds* with passes behind or above but rarely in front of open receivers.  It is encouraging. Robinson is in the top 20 in passing efficiency in an offense that throws about 40% of the time. While his legs are a big chunk of that, they are, you know, his legs. He gets opportunities others don't because of them.

Michigan's got some complications, however. Martavious Odoms is done for the year and both other starting wideouts appeared on this week's injury report. It sounds like Darryl Stonum will be good to go, but the perpetually questionable Junior Hemingway is questionable again. Je'Ron Stokes and Jeremy Jackson may get more time than Michigan coaches are comfortable with. Roy Roundtree exists, though, and Michigan can shift its production around without affecting their efficiency too much—usually the choice is not between covering the outside guy and covering Roundtree, but dealing with Robinson and covering Roundtree.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio State fans still manage to sound disappointed in the #7 pass efficiency defense in the country. They are pretty weak at getting to the QB—hardly better than Michigan—and they do have safety issues and they don't have a shutdown corner like they usually do. They've also missed two of the league's best QBs in Kirk Cousins and Dan Persa. Like the rush defense, they haven't played a big chunk of the Big Ten's good passing offenses. They played 1 and 2, but haven't gotten to 3-6 yet. Performance against 1 and 2:

This just in: Wisconsin's Scott Tolzien. Anyway, that's a bad performance in a game Wisconsin hardly threw in and a pretty good one against Iowa. Everything else is brutal strangulation of doe-eyed innocents and the Jacory Harris Interception Spectacular. There aren't many good comparables for Michigan.

Assuming Tressel plays it low-variance, Michigan won't have a ton of opportunities to hit it deep but this will open up the underneath stuff, especially Roundtree's hitch routes, or more likely a variation on them that Ohio State hasn't scouted to death. We've seen QB Lead Oh Noes disappear over the past few weeks; maybe that can be used to exploit Ohio State's youthful safeties. The last time they ran it they had Martell Webb streaking open for what would have been a touchdown if Martell Webb wasn't pretty slow and the ball wasn't chucked directly at an Illinois safety.

*(This may be a slight exaggeration.)

Key Matchup: Robinson's Accuracy versus That Stuff Whatever That Was. No one has been able to consistently defend the run and pass against Denard, so they've chosen the run and have been right more often than not. Michigan needs two halves like the second against Wisconsin—occasional error, mostly deadly—to have a shot.

Run Defense vs. Ohio State

Ohio State doesn't quite have the Badger ground game, with emphasis on "quite". Wisconsin is 12th, Ohio State 17th, with OSU trailing the Badgers by a quarter yard per carry. The main guy is Boom Herron, a compact, powerful runner without a ton of shimmy. He makes a lot of yards by sliding through tackles thanks to his low center of gravity and tree trunk legs. He's not likely to break anything long. He's what Kevin Grady was supposed to be.

Backup Brandon Saine has found himself marginalized as the season goes along. He's a lot like Michael Shaw, combining blazing speed with a lack of tackle-breaking power and a nasty tendency to avoid the intended hole. He's come on as a receiver out of the backfield and in the slot and will probably get a half-dozen carries.

And then there's Pryor, infrequently utilized but wildly effective when deployed. If you take out OSU's sacks he's averaging 8.2(!) YPC on 87(!) attempts this year, numbers that boggle the mind when combined. 87 carries takes the YPC outside the realm of fluke, so… how does a guy averaging 8 yards a carry only get 87 attempts? Tressel, yo. I get the argument you'd like to spare your QB hits against teams with little chance of winning, but Ohio State desperation catchup mode is the spread option. This is frustrating to both Michigan and Ohio State fans.

The script last year against Michigan was similar: OSU came out and ran their I-form "Dave" package with little success most of the day; when Michigan scored to draw within a touchdown out came the spread option. Pryor ran right down the field, touchdown, flood of Michigan interceptions, ballgame. Michigan doesn't have Brandon Graham anymore so the regular package should be more successful than it was last year, hampering Michigan's ability to get the three and outs that kept them in that game.

Key Matchup: Michigan Tacklers versus Herron's Thighs. With Mouton and Demens around it's likely that FBs will be taken on near the LOS and Michigan will have opportunities to get the Buckeyes in long-yardage situations in which Pryor's had some difficulty. One of the many, many problems against Wisconsin was Michigan tacklers not tackling, or giving up two or three yards after contact. That seems like it might be more fixable than Greg Robinson's beaver brain or the incredible youth of everyone. 

Pass Defense vs. Ohio State

Terrelle Pryor hasn't exactly developed into the world-beating Vince Young (except better!) imitator he was supposed to be out of high school. Against the good defenses on OSU's schedule he does stuff like this:

The other somewhat average pass D on the schedule was Penn State; Pryor threw just 13 times, completing eight.

Unfortunately for Michigan, "good" is nowhere in the conversation when it comes to Michigan's pass defense. They're looking up at "putrid" and hanging out with "fairly good reason to go insane." I think they peed on my couch and tried to sop it up with a handful of crushed Cheetos. I do not mean this as a metaphor.

They're currently idling at 92nd in pass efficiency defense. Pryor's performance against Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota, the—sigh—closer comparisons for Michigan's crew of befuddled freshman and slow guys:

Good Lord. Pryor meets a level of defense at which he is suddenly mediocre or worse; below that he is a ruthless bomb-thrower. Adding it all up gives you a quarterback who's 14th in passer efficiency this year and still hasn't had a good game against a real defense.

Pryor's main targets are his outside receivers. Both have around 50 catches, with Dane Sanzenbacher averaging considerably more YPC and has nine touchdowns to Posey's five. The tailbacks and TE Jake Stoneburner are secondary targets, and then there are guys scattered down the roster with the occasional catches. The line's pretty mediocre at pass blocking, giving up almost two sacks a game (59th) despite being 85th nationally in pass attempts.

Even Pryor and the OSU passing game is something of a paper tiger, that fact obviously has no relevance against the Michigan secondary. Scott Tolzein's passes never hit the ground last weekend; Wisconsin went away from the passing game because the run game allowed them to. Amongst the many things the Michigan pass defense cannot do are pressure the quarterback (1.5 sacks per game, 94th), cover receivers (yeesh), tackle, and provide anything more than a slight hindrance to quarterbacks more competent than a rain-soaked Sean Robinson.

Key Matchup: HAHAHAHAHA

Special Teams

OSU's been good with the ball in its returners' hands, solidly above average in punt returns and very good at kick returns. They've been worse than bad in coverage, giving up 12.7 yards a punt return and yielding a touchdown against Miami. Two kickoffs have been returned for touchdowns, too.

The usual story at kicker: OSU's Devin Barclay is 16 of 19, Michigan's blah blah blah. This week I can point out their proficiency at onside kicks, though.

Key Matchup: STOP KICKING THE DAMN BALL

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

(Site note: Jebus. One of the "worry ifs" from last week was "Scott Tolzien completes every pass he throws.")

Cackle with knowing glee if...

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Terrelle Pryor Eats Baby Seals And I Can See The Club For Miles, +1 for Despite Everything This Is The Top D In The League By All Measures, +1 for Ours Is Not Very Close HA HA HA, +1 for Turnover Margin: 5 vs 101, +1 for They Are A Much Better Football Team)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for The Game)

Loss will cause me to... continue repeating "I expected 7-5" until the bowl game.

Win will cause me to... dissolve.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

There's no reason for optimism, as not even the Epic Pryor Meltdown scenario seems to result in a win a week after Wisconsin didn't throw in the second half.

Tressel won't even have to risk it, as he should be able to grind it out on the ground with success and watch his excellent defense bottle Denard up sufficiently to stake the Buckeyes to a two-score lead they'll maintain most of he day. They'll take the Maserati out of the garage and run the inverted veer when/if Michigan brings it within a score, immediately going down the field to push the margin back out. The defense will be toyed with.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Pryor throws fewer than 20 times.
• Two Michigan drives die on the vine around the OSU 35.
• The bitter hollowness of defeat has a piquant familiarity, almost like an old friend.
• Ohio State, 35-20.

Though many fans may not have realized it, the recent basketball games against Gardner-Webb and Bowling Green were technically part of their Feast Week tournament, The Legends Classic. "Tournament" is something of a misnomer: the hosts were guaranteed to move on. All four managed to make it through the regional rounds unscathed anyway.

Michigan will face Syracuse tonight at 7:30 in one semifinal. Georgia Tech and UTEP square off on the other side of the bracket at 5:30. The consolation and championship games are tomorrow at 5:30 and 7:30, respectively. All games will air on HDNet.

#10 Syracuse

Four games into the season, it's too early to tell how good Syracuse really is (which is the case for pretty much every team in the nation). Ken Pomeroy ranks them #10 in the nation, but close calls against Detroit and William & Mary may be a sign that they're vulnerable. Despite possessing the tournament's the most talented roster on paper with players like Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine, the Orange aren't unbeatable.

Blowouts over Northern Iowa and Canisius (which you may recognize as one of John Beilein's former schools) won't help Michigan much, but maybe the Detroit and/or William & Mary games can give them a blueprint for how to take down Jim Boeheim's men.

Detroit led Syracuse at the half, and was in the game until the Orange pulled away at the very end. It doesn't seem the Titans did anything particularly well except prevent 'Cuse from shooting well - they finished with a 41.67 eFG% (which was better than the 40.18 eFG% the Titans put up on their own end). Forcing bad shots out of Syracuse was a great gameplan for UDM. The Orange made just 54% of their free throws - so it's also possible that they just aren't a team that's good at shooting the basketball.

The William & Mary game may seem to indicate this is true. A bigger, stronger, faster, and presumably more talented Orange squad shot 40.83% from the field in a three-point win. They were just 12/52 from behind the arc in those two games.

John Beilein has never beaten a Boeheim-led Syracuse squad. However, if Michigan can implement a quality defensive gameplan (make the Orange shoot from outside by defending well in the paint), and hit their open shots, they have a chance to spring the upset. A cautionary note: this is the first game away from Crisler Arena for the vast majority of the Wolverines' roster.

Texas-El Paso

Ex-USC Coach Tim Floyd heads the Miners, and forward Julyan Stone and guard Randy Culpepper have been his go-to guys early in the season. UTEP already has an embarrassing loss on their hands this year, losing to Pacific in the season opener.

UTEP has been middle-of-the-pack so far in most stats, slightly above-average in most. The exception is rebounding percentage on both ends of the court, where they've struggled. The area in which they excel the most? Getting to the free throw line. If Michigan ends up facing them, they'll need to be careful not to get into foul trouble.

Georgia Tech

Like UTEP, Georgia Tech has an embarrassing loss on their early season resume, getting blown out by Kennesaw State(!) 80-63. Their roster was decimated by losing their best two players, Ganin Lawal and Derrick Favors, to the NBA, but Kennesaw State?

The Yellowjackets struggle to put the ball in the basket, with just a 42.5 eFG% so far this year despite not facing a team in KenPom's top 200. Where they've had more success is on the other end of the court, where they excel at stealing the ball and blocking opponents' shots (despite the losses of Lawal and Favors, two exceptional shot-blockers last season).

Georgia Tech is likely to be Michigan's opponent in the consolation game, and the Wolverines' best chance to salvage a win in Atlantic City.

Predictions!

Michigan will play Syracuse tight for a lot of the game, with each team going on runs here and there, but the Orange mostly maintaining a lead. However, the athleticism of Syracuse will be too much for the Wolverines to handle, as frustrating fastbreaks will give 'Cuse too many easy points, and Michigan's young shooters aren't able to keep pace to win the game.

In the other semi, I get the feeling UTEP will have a fairly comfortable win over a Georgia Tech squad that seems to have a lot of flaws. The Miners might not be able to get to the free throw line as much as they're used to because of GT's shot-blocking prowess, but they'll finish the game at the line.

In the finals, I think an upset may be brewing. Syracuse has won despite a bunch of struggles at times, and I think they'll get a more exhausting game from Michigan than UTEP will from Georgia Tech. In the consolation game, I think the Wolverines will be able to take down GT.