game previews

Key Matchup: Mouton and Ezeh versus Aforementioned Blown Assignments. Plz keep getting better here.

Pass Defense vs. Delaware State

Delaware State is 91st in passing offense and 103rd in passing efficiency. It'll be interesting to see how Woolfolk does and if Williams does better at free safety.

Key Matchup: Williams versus Getting Beat Deep.

Special Teams

CATCH THE DAMN BALL

CATCH THE DAMN BALL

Key Matchup: CATCH THE DAMN BALL.

Intangibles

Kittens are not deployed for games against I-AA teams. Here's this instead:

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Tate looks like he's back to his old, better self.
• No one gets injured.
• I don't know, don't cackle, it's not nice.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 out of 10. (Baseline 5, –1 for I-AA Team, –1 for 1-3 I-AA Team, –1 for 1-3 I-AA Team That Just Gave Bethune-Cookman Its First Win Of The Season, –1 for 1-3 I-AA Team That Just Gave Bethune-Cookman Its First Win Of The Season And Is Worse Than 90th In Both Total Offense And Total Defense, –1 for 1-3 I-AA Team That Just Gave Bethune-Cookman Its First Win Of The Season And Is Worse Than 90th In Both Total Offense And Total Defense And Has Been Pegged With A More Than Five-Touchdown Spread By Crazy Offshore Gambling Folk).

Desperate need to win level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5, +1 for No Horror Redux, +1 for This Would Actually Be Worse, +1 for Way Worse, +1 for I Expended All My "Get Out Of Spending Two Days In Fetal Position Free" Cards Last Year, +1 for Just No.)

Loss will cause me to... spend the next twenty years of my life digging a ditch around Delaware, and the following ten trying to push it out to sea.

Win will cause me to...  react in no way whatsoever.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan wins.

Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw have a ton of carries.
• Michigan does nothing new at all.
• Denard gets half of the snaps.
• Michigan, 45-10.

Wegher is an oddity in many ways: he's a white guy from Iowa who was given four stars by Rivals. Robinson was recruiting non-entity whose only offer was an Iowa grayshirt (IE: come in next January, kid, when we have room). Insert recruiting debate we're not having here.

Iowa has gone up against three good rush defenses in Arizona (19), Penn State (11), and Arkansas State (30) and has been juggling the offensive line due to injuries. Star tackle Bryan Bulaga missed three games with an illness and returned for the ASU game, which resulted in this:

“We were not very happy with our performance as an offensive line,” guard Julian Vandervelde said. “I suppose it’s good to have that sort of performance and still come out with a win. That’ll motivate us this week to work a lot harder at the things we need to improve on. We’ll spend a lot more time in the film room and on the practice field focusing on the details this week.”

… They always say the film is never as good or bad as you think it’s going to be. Sometimes, that’s just not true. It’s every bit as bad as you thought it was going to be. This was probably one of those weekends.”

The Red Wolves (why does every team that replaces their offensive Indian nickname put "red" in their new nickname? discuss) held Iowa to 124 yards on 33 carries, 3.8 per. That was Iowa's second-worst game of the year on the ground. The worst? The 87 yards they put up against Northern Iowa. Suggestion for Michigan: join the SWAC temporarily.

This will be an interesting test for Michigan's possibly-competent-when-aligned-correctly nouveau run defense, which crushed Michigan State's primitive attack to the tune of less than 3 YPC for the running backs. And Michigan State's pitch touchdown run was another instance of a badly misaligned defense similar to the 85-yard doom run by Indiana. Expect one or two of those against Iowa.

Outside of that stuff, Michigan's rushing defense was dominant. This is thanks in part to Brandon Graham (who actually graded out better in Steve Sharik's evaluation of the game than he did in his record-setting day in UFR):

And it's thanks in part to Michigan saying "screw it, we're an eight-man front" and dropping Jordan Kovacs into the box on almost every play:

That worked well and I expect Michigan will continue to do it, as they have a number of players with limited skill sets that they can take advantage of in very specific ways. For one: Jonas Mouton is a talented blitzer who's struggled with coverage and whatnot and Michigan decided they'd just blitz the hell out of him against State, to good effect. More of that will probably happen against Iowa.

The other aspect of the "run" defense to watch may not be run defense at all: Kirk Cousins averaged 10 YPC on 7 carries last Saturday despite his well-deserved reputation as a pocket passer. Stanzi's even more of a pocket passer—he's got –50 rushing yards on the year—but anyone can run up into the great wide open Michigan was graciously providing Cousins. Dollars to donuts Michigan spent a lot of time working on maintaining rush lane integrity; Stanzi's not likely to replicate Cousins's feat. Obi Ezeh is a lock to get dragged out of his zone, opening up at least one key, frustrating third down conversion.

Key Matchup: Ryan Van Bergen vs Iowa Interior OL. Van Bergen's emergence the last couple weeks has been the hidden secret to the run defense. He was able to prevent himself from getting sealed or blown back by MSU's OL and this removed just about the last weak spot on the line against the run. A reprise against Iowa's line would be very good for this game and the next two and a half seasons.

Pass Defense vs. Iowa

Here, again, Iowa has been fairly meh. Ricky Stanzi has thrown two pick-sixes in the last three games and is currently 70th in passer efficiency. That's a severe drop from last year, when Stanzi was the better half of a two-headed QB (recruitin' bust Jake Christensen was the other) and finished 34th. Stanzi's completing only 58% of his passes, has 7 interceptions to 8 touchdowns, all of which were against UNI, Iowa State, and Arkansas State, and averages 7.1 YPA. None of these marks are particularly good, and the rotating line has given up two sacks a game. There is some potential for Michigan to not soil themselves here.

Injuries have hampered Iowa here as well. Obviously, the line's been an issue. Iowa's also missed TE Tony Moeaki and WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, a man whose name is so long the NCAA's official site gives up somewhere in the middle of his second last name, for chunks of the season. With both those guys tentatively healthy and Bulaga back, Iowa figures to be a bit better than they have been so far. The prospect of Moeaki, who's been an excellent receiving tight end in the rare instances when he's healthy, against Michigan's dodgy linebacking crew is not a tantalizing one.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan has thrown a walk-on in as a full time starter and is thinking about moving once and future cornerback Troy Woolfolk from safety in an effort to shore up the corner spot opposite Donovan Warren, where virtually all opponent passes go. Mike Williams will slot in at free safety in that situation, leaving Michigan more vulnerable to long gainers but hopefully less likely to give up 130 yard, ten minute drives. It's ugly. I said there was little chance this went well against Michigan State and that was borne out; there is a chance it goes better against Stanzi and company but to get the horrible interception Michigan is going to have to cover some guys. Maybe Woolfolk can do that and maybe Michigan's linebackers can remove the head from the butt in the zone coverage; I'll remain doubtful about that until I see it.

Here, as always, the key is to get pressure on the quarterback. Dead donkeys cannot be covered, etc.

Key Matchup: Graham versus The Idiotic Idea You Can Single Block Him, or Brian Bulaga. I assume Iowa won't make the same mistake State did and let Graham run wild against single blocking unless they try it a couple times with Bulaga and it works out. Sharik notes that Michigan's gone to a strictly field-boundary scheme in the aftermath of the 85-yard touchdown run—ie, no flipping the line when Iowa realigns, so if Iowa wants to they'll be able to get Bulaga on Graham whenever it's not an obvious passing down. If Graham can win that battle and demand a second blocker, or just win that battle and cause Stanzi to do his usual interception thing, Michigan's in it.

Special Teams

During my podcast interaction with Oops Pow Surprise of Black Heart Gold Pants, he blasphemously asserted that Iowa's punter, whose name is something like Boring Smith, was the Big Ten's finest. I inadvertently uttered an expletive—as opposed to the intentional, if somewhat stammered ones earlier in the podcast—in reaction. And it is blasphemy. Boring Smith and the Hawkeyes are 31st in net punting. Michigan is fifth. Michigan should pick up an extra four yards every time punts are exchanged.

Michigan should also have an advantage in kick returns, where Iowa is 98th and Michigan is 25th; punt returns, which Michigan just doesn't bother with anymore (107th!) probably won't be relevant because opponents have only returned 7 of Zoltan's 26 punts and those have gone for five yards each because the opponents has invariably been surrounded by spread punt gunners of all varieties.

In the kicking game, Jason Olesnavage is now 5/6 of the season with proven range in the mid- to high-40s, though his one miss was a chip shot. Iowa's Daniel Murray has more of a track record but it's not a great one: he's 6/9 this year, was 6/9 last year, and was 7/10 the year before that. Tentative advantage here goes to Michigan.

Key Matchup: Can I cease saying CATCH THE DAMN BALL? I think so. How about field goal kickin'. Iowa's guy seems more likely to miss one and that could be a BFD.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Iowa fails to crease the Michigan DL and has to put a lot of the game on Stanzi…
• …and Stanzi responds with his traditional festive interceptions.
• There are a lot of punts because Boring Smith sucks.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 9 out of 10. (Baseline 5, +1 for Hello Iowa City Night Game, +1 for Probably Best Team M Has Played So Far, +1 for Spread Nearing Double Digits, +1 for M OL Vs Iowa DL Looks Like Not Fun Things That Are No Fun, –1 for But There Is The Tate Hulk Up To Account For, +1 for Dammit We Rushed For 28 Yards Last Game).

Desperate need to win level: 4 out of 10. (Baseline 5, –1 for This Is Not One That Anyone Expects To Pick Up, –1 for And The Fanbase Isn't Even Annoying, –1 for And No One Even Knows An Iowa Graduate, Right, +1 for The Battle Of Mary Sue Coleman, +1 for Man, 5-1 With A Road Win In Iowa City Heading Into Delaware State Sounds Like A Recipe For New Year's Day )

Loss will cause me to... not be particularly surprised.

Win will cause me to...  probably get kidnapped and stuck in the Black Heart Gold Basement.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

I'd like to walk back some of the negativity I've offered on the radio and podcasts of late. I hadn't taken a close enough look at Iowa and seen how mistake-prone Stanzi's been or that the run defense looks fairly permeable, at least for Iowa. I still don't think Michigan wins but I was offering up 8-10 point margins earlier this week, and I now think Michigan will be closer than that, not least because of Tate Forcier's late-game heroics.

The prediction below is weird: it builds in what appears to be a 50-50 shot at Iowa having one more game-crippling mistake than Michigan. I think if M gets that game crippling mistake they will be in it at the end with a chance to win, possibly attempting to defend and Iowa game-winning drive. If they don't I think they end up in a hole and threaten to break out of it from time to time but never actually do so, with the cold and the crowd and the Iowa defense finally reining in Forcier when the game's on the line.

Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Minor has like 90% of the carries.
• Michigan finally pulls something out of the bag of tricks.
• Woolfolk moves to corner and Iowa gets a big play because of safety error because of it.
• Iowa, 20-17.

Note: had more planned for today but illness intervened and saw me sleep for 12 hours yesterday. So we'll see how it goes the rest of the day. Will be slightly light, unfortunately. Right: no respect, I tell you. Via Kevin Rozek.

The Essentials

Run Offense vs. State

The strength of Michigan's team goes up against the relative strength of the Michigan State defense. Numbers from games against I-A competition:

That's shinier than Michigan's defense has done so far. ND went for 154 yards on 30 carries against Michigan. But Michigan's rush offense sits at #8 nationally even after a comical parade of botched snaps and odd rules (intentional grounding counts as a sack in the stats and comes off your rushing totals) saw Indiana "hold" Michigan to 149 yards that were more like 220.

Still, Michigan's only gone up against one defense that should be of the approximate caliber of Michigan State and it was ND. Against ND, Michigan acquired 199 yards on 36 carries, 5.5 per attempt.

Will Michigan be able to replicate this? Points in favor:

State is scrambling on the DL. Four-star C recruit Blake Treadwell, a coaches' kid, got moved to DL and is set to lose his redshirt in this game:

"When it's time to play, it's time to play ... If he's ready to play and he can help us, coach Dantonio and coach Treadwell feel good about it," Narduzzi continued.

Spectacularly named Kevin Pickelman is "banged up"; starter Jerel Worthy is a redshirt freshman and kind of tubby, so he's prone to tire. Meanwhile, the Free Press was reporting that Dion Sims might be moved to DE for this game (wha?), but the reliable paper in Detroit says that's not the case:

"I don't know anything about that," Gill said. "Don't even search for that. He's a tight end in our offense and that's what he plays."

Non-Jones linebackers appear to be horrible. It's too bad the MSUFR folks just got up and running because then it would give some context to these numbers from the UW game:

Jebus in a handbasket going to church on Tuesday. This speaks of metric fail to me, and Dr. Detroit:

First, the scoring system is inconsistent.  I gave points to Misch and Decker that I did not give to Jones, so the numbers are too positive.  Second, the scoring system I setup is pretty much guaranteed to have LBs be in the negative.  Every time a LB gets blocked, I scored that as a negative.  Gordon and Misch got blocked a lot.  This could be intentional.  They eat up the blockers and Jones is then able to make a play.  It would be really stupid for it to be intentional though.  Misch did have a play where he avoided a blocker and made a tackle which leads me to believe they are not trying to engage blockers.  Misch looks like he needs more experience and practice at avoiding blockers. 

It's apparent that the MSU coaches are trying to replace Misch with true freshman and hyped recruit Chris Norman, but he's just not ready. the other OLB is Eric Gordon, who Dr. Detroit describes as a block magnet. If Michigan can get to Jones, the safeties are going to have to make a lot of tackles.

Points against:

Michigan State will adjust to this year's big gasher to date. Our beloved zone counter dive was defended by Indiana and Michigan saw a steep decline in bighuge running plays. Only three Michigan rushes broke ten yards. Defending this like so…

…naturally opens up other things; Michigan will have to adapt and throw something out that's not a proven winner. I'm betting they will, but it remains to be seen whether that's going to be as much of a winner. My bet? An effective variant of the "Cut it up Tate" play where the H-back peels off and kicks out the contain LB, opening up copious room for Tate or, better, Denard.

David Molk is gone. From the snap issues to the presence of a non-starter in the lineup to the wholesale realignment of 3/5ths of the line, that's damaging. David Moosman got a few sweet blocks against Indiana but this Worthy guy is a bigger dude and may be tougher to handle. Or he may just get tired easily and not have the agility to keep up.

All told? Michigan will get its yards on the ground against a DT rotation that's thin and prone to tire and a linebacking corps that Michigan might not actually trade for. Rodriguez should prove his gashing bonafides.

Key Matchup: Schilling and Huyge against Jones. Getting Jones to the ground is how Michigan turns five yards into 50.

Pass Offense vs. State

First, an interlude from the Notre Dame-Michigan State game:

Our pissed off play annotator has revealed something: even against spread personnel Michigan State generally sticks with a 4-3 package, using WLB Eric Gordon as a slot defender. This is in contrast to Michigan's other A-level opponent to date. Notre Dame stuck a safety directly over the slot and took away perimeter screens. If Michigan State stays in the same package they've been in so far, the slots should find themselves considerably more involved in the game plan.

Unfortunately for Michigan, Martavious Odoms is not Mike Floyd, but as we saw against Eastern this year and several times the year before, if you leave base personnel on the field and shade your linebackers halfway between the box and the slot (the "gray area," according to Rodriguez), Michigan will go to the slot guys with regularity.

There's the catch, though: last year Michigan State obviously spent a lot of time on the Michigan game and snuffed out Odoms' wheel routes with coverage packages that took it away. Threet had to come off it or throw horrible interceptions into it. I made the mistake of assuming Notre Dame would stick with two-wide packages against M and I'd like to not repeat that mistake. In the Wisconsin game, State did go to a nickel package on some passing downs. But to do that they lift a DL:

Michigan State had exactly zero plays with anything other than 3 LBs on the field.  MSU defensively is either in a 4-3 Stack with the LBs 5 yards off the LOS, or they are blitzing.  If I can pick it up that easy, so can everyone else. MSU will go to a nickel coverage.  … MSU takes out a defensive tackle and adds a defensive back.  Then sends a linebacker on a blitz.

Lifting Jon Misch, a former walk-on with all of ten tackles on the year battling for his job with a true freshman, is not exactly going to kill your defense. But so it goes.

Unless Michigan State shows something it hasn't so far, nickel packages will be 3-3-5s on obvious passing downs and Michigan will be up against the standard 4-3 against a spread, something that gave us all hives last year. And its giving MSU hives this year:

  This is simply a bad defensive scheme and there is no excuse for continuing in this fashion.

Compounding matters was a vast lack of pressure on UW QB Scott Tolzien last week. He didn't get sacked and was hurried maybe a couple times in the process of going 15 for 20 for four touchdowns. This goes against MSU's previous marker, when they got better pressure on ND than Michigan did, sacking Clausen twice. Even then, MSU fans seemed discontent with the DL:

- Unfortunately it seems our defense will be an issue all season. The lack of pressure from the front 4 will continue to be an issue in the run and passing game. Add in that with the disappointing play of the secondary to date and we’ll struggle against good offenses.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan's had serious pass protection issues at right tackle, though.

As far as the rest of the offense goes, Tate Forcier remains a scarily-accurate rollout machine who occasionally does something idiotic because he's a true freshman, and the receivers remain largely pedestrian non-deep threats. Given the tendency of the MSU linebackers to suck up against the run and the absolute field day UW tight ends had against Michigan State, this might be the game in which Kevin Koger goes nuts; also, if Michigan State isn't prepared for the Carlos Brown wheel route and tries to defend it with Misch or Gordon, Brown's streak of plays that go more than 50 yards might continue. Protection, protection is the key.

Key Matchup: Perry Dorrestein versus Trevor Anderson or Other Michigan State DE. If Michigan can get some lawyaz blocked, there is the potential for much fun toying with the State secondary. This is questionable.

Run Defense vs. State

Michigan State has been uninspiring so far:

These are all sacks-removed, which significantly colors them. 5.1 YPC drops to 4, FWIW, if you include Wisconsin's two sacks. That's the whole point of removing sacks, but adjust your TV sets to take that into account. These numbers are obviously not great, especially when they've come against a collection of rush defenses as motley as the crew above. Though the total numbers don't show it yet because of wildly uneven schedules, whenever opponents have gone up against good rushing attacks they've crumbled. Arizona, a BCS team about on par with MSU this year, put up 246 yards against Central. Michigan hit Notre Dame up for 190 yards. And despite playing NIU, Fresno State, and Wofford along with MSU, Wisconsin is 73rd in rush defense. Fresno went for 179 yards on 39 carries, NIU 129 on 32, and Wofford(!) had 214 yards, though that was on 55 carries. The Woffordians must run some sort of crazy triple option because more guys got carries(10) than Wofford had passing attempts(7).

So MSU's run problems are real and the Wisconsin game improvement is at least partially an artifact of coming up against a seriously dodgy run defense. The other part is the steady fall of Caulton Ray down the depth chart in favor of Win-at-all-Costs Winston and freshman Larry Caper. Winston is either a smaller version of Brandon Minor or Jehuu Caulcrick with more burst. He runs through arm tackles, trucks people, and has good speed for his size but has zero wiggle. He runs in a straight line until tackled. This is probably good for Michigan's defense, which has been good about cutting off primary running lanes of late and terrible at controlling unexpected cutbacks. Caper isn't that different from Winston but has more jump; he popped outside Wisconsin linebackers a couple times and might actually be a better fit when it comes to attacking Michigan's defense. I'd be more worried about him, though as a freshman it's hard to give him a zillion carries when you're a passing team and his blitz pickups are, I assume, shaky.

In the Wisconsin game, State was running a lot of zone plays. This was odd to me after UFRing a couple of State games in which power off tackle plays were almost the only run play in the arsenal. Maybe it fits better with State's primary backs, as Winston is not a guy who goes anywhere except down if you make him bounce it outside, but as a one-cut mooseback he was decently effective against Wisconsin. The problem for MSU is that their linemen are mostly tubby guys recruited to blow people off the ball and MSU basically never got the nice playside DT reach blocks that are a staple of Michigan's stretch game. M linebackers should be wary of the cutback behind the center, where MSU did most of its erratic damage against Wisconsin.

One thing to note is that the Michigan State offensive line has been seriously banged up and is torn between getting starters back and putting what looks like a starting five on the field and dragging a true freshman on the field:

Henry Conway, a freshman tackle, made the team dress list for the Sept. 19 trip to Notre Dame, but has yet to play a snap this season. …Injuries to the line and the unit's difficulty to establish a consistent running game might create opportunities for Conway.

Starting left guard Joel Foreman didn't play against the Badgers because of an ankle injury. Tackle J'Michael Deane injured his leg earlier this season and also didn't play. Joel Nitchman, a starting center, moved to guard at Wisconsin, while John Stipek once again played center to help fill a void.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan has been pretty damn uninspiring itself, allowing an 85-yard touchdown to Indiana and turning Armando Allen into a massive threat. In the first four weeks of the season, Michigan has decided it's going to slant like hell, leave the linebackers back, and watch them screw up a lot. The slanting was a problem that got fixed; the linebackers are still a work in progress They have begun to screw up less often these days, but seeing a Caper bounceout like a couple that happened against Wisconsin is extremely easy. Winston might have a couple runs that crease the line; most of the time he's just going to run up into a bunch of dudes and go not very far.

Key Matchup: Caper versus Mouton/Brown on bounceouts. I think the problem with the State run game is a mismatch between the line's talents and those of the backs, and that Michigan's slanting, undersized, athletic line will be well suited to crush the zone plays Winston does well in. So then you've got the athletic guy versus linebackers dodgy at contain. I think this is where MSU gets any runs longer than ten yards.

Pass Defense vs. State

Yerrrrgh. For the record, Michigan State is not really the top passing offense in the Big Ten. Almost half of their passing yards against Wisconsin game in pure garbage time when Nichol came in with 5 minutes left in the game and Wisconsin up three touchdowns. Without that they fall all the way from 320 yards a game to 276 and are now the… uh… #2 passing team in the Big Ten, behind Northwestern. Hamburgers.

This almost can't go well. State has three excellent receivers, two of whom have the size and speed to get deep. Mark Dell showed an outstanding ability to adjust to deep throws against Wisconsin and caught a picture-perfect 20-yard-fade from Cousins for State's first touchdown. And BJ Cunningham had a spectacular touchdown reception of his own. Dion Sims and a vast array of other TEs—seriously MSU has like 4 or 5—look like field-stretching seam threats. And when Kirk Cousins isn't inexplicably throwing the ball directly to an opponent (he did this again versus Wisconsin) he's zinging darts. Sometimes the darts are thrown way too high and hard; sometimes they are deposited into the receiver's facemask.

There's just one hope, and it's the usual when your team can't cover a dead donkey: pressure. I do think there's some chance Michigan gets to the quarterback consistently. My stream of consciousness notes on the UW game have several instances of same:

no agility... roh? PI first down.

wisconsin gets to cousins, he throws terrible int. lots of UW pass rush so far.

max pro on third and thirteen still gets pressure, flushing cousins, sidearm dart (DO, 1) to dell on sideline for first(!). ooh went oob first.

zig route thrown behind with pressure. maybe not so good with pressure?

horrible lack of pickup on four man rush causes short hitch 3 yards

There was also an instance where Cousins scrambled out of the pocket and could have run for ten or so yards but instead attempted to rifle the ball and it went way out of the endzone. He is a pocket guy not comfortable on the move and if Michigan gets to him he will not respond well. My prescription for this game is TAH-NOO-TAH; I will cringe at any three man rush. If you're worried about screens spy with a DT.

Note: Roh? I mean it. Wisconsin had a true freshman OLB they were sending on edge rushes who was just going right around the MSU RT; his lack of agility was apparent. On passing downs where Roh can just unleash the eyebrows, he can get to Cousins.

Key Matchup: Pounding rain? If not that, yes, again, Brandon Graham versus the life that hates him very very much.

Special Teams

The special teams were huge for Michigan against Indiana but this figures to be an even matchup. Stone me for this heresy, but the punting battle should be about even. While Zoltan the Inconceivable has punted Michigan into the top ten in net punting with a 42.2 net average, Michigan State's guy is just a yard behind. Michigan should be more likely to get a decent return, FWIW: half of State's punt have been returned for almost nine yards each; fewer than a quarter of Michigan's have come back and opponents are average under six yards a return.

Michigan State has an edge at kicker, where Brett Swenson is excellent. Jason Olesnavage has been pretty good so far, going 3/4 on the year with a couple outside 40 yards, but missed a chip shot in the Notre Dame game.

Michigan combats that edge with an edge in kick returns, where they're 22nd to MSU's 52nd. Darryl Stonum has consistently been bringing kicks out to the 30 or 40 with the odd return that ends up on the opponent's side of midfield or in the endzone.

Key Matchup: It's rainy. HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL.

Intangibles

Glenn Winston cat is Glenn Winston cat.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Trevor Anderson is zipping past Dorrestein when Michigan tries to throw out of the pocket.
• Tate's throwing arm explodes.
• Michigan is not getting to the quarterback.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• It rains like a mofo.
• Graham and Roh give Cousins no time to throw.
• Hello, Keith Nichol!

Fear/Paranoia Level: 6 out of 10. (Baseline 5, +1 for First Road Game For Many, +1 for Kirk Cousins vs CissokoFloyd, –1 Forcier vs DavisClark And That's Just One Last Name, +1 for Their Receivers Are More Likely To Make Sucky Secondaries Pay, –1 for They've Got More Chaos, –1 for Pucker, Pucker, Pucker, +1 for  Weather Could Do Anything).

Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5, –1 for Would Be Totally Understandable To Lose This One, +1 for But Really, Really Annoying, +1 for Would Make Dantonio's Offseason Bluster Laughable Psych-Out Stuff, Man,  +1 for Not Winning Would Make For A Week Of Columns Praising a 2-3 Team So Dumb I Might Have An Aneurysm.)

Loss will cause me to... promise to myself I'll avoid columns of legendary stupidity this week, and then break that promise.

Win will cause me to...  can you frame a post-game press conference? Someone let me know.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

There are too many wild cards—first road game, weather, Forcier's shoulder—in this game to have much faith in the prediction below, but, you know, strictures and conventions.

I'm really bothered by the line shift. Michigan was favored by one early in the week and is now a 3.5 point dog. Getting over 3 is kind of a big deal. What is it that the books see that's not apparent here? It is clear that Michigan and State are far closer than your average 4-0 and 1-3 teams, and the smart money isn't dumb enough to fall for Michigan State's offensive explosion against Wisconsin second-stringers, right?

I am disquieted, because I don't think State's schedule has been that much tougher than Michigan's relative to their performance. I-AA vs Eastern is basically meaningless. ND is the same except for home/road, and Western and Central may not be equal but one was a 24 point win and the other a loss in which MSU got outgained badly. And though Indiana at home is way easier than Wisconsin on the road, this Wisconsin team scraped by NIU and went to double overtime against a non-good edition of Fresno State, and oh by the way Michigan beat Indiana and MSU was basically blown out by Wisconsin until garbage time hijinks brought it closer.

The impressiveness of these games, IME: Push, push, M, M. So why the line swing? The only news during the week of relevance was the continued insistence that Tate Forcier would be totally fine. I don't get it, and I don't think it's meaningless, and that makes me nervous.

But I don't get it so let me forge ahead: I think Michigan's rushing defense is much better equipped to handle a Glenn Winston than a bouncy outside back and I believe the slanting issues against Notre Dame have been fixed, which means MSU's to-date moribund ground game shouldn't be much better than it's been so far. Cousins will tear Michigan apart but that line should crack enough to allow a sack or three and Michigan will get its share of stops.

On the other side of the ball, it all comes down to pass protection. I think they'll get their yards on the ground to the tune of at least 5 YPC and will do well enough in the passing game.

Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Brandon Graham never sacks anyone again.
• Minor and Brown about split the carries, with one going over 100 and the other coming close.
• Michigan pulls something out of the bag of tricks.
• Forcier does not get nervous.
• Michigan, 31-27.

Or: How Lake The Posts Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Whiskey

The Essentials

Run Offense vs. Eastern

Last week I declared that the rushing offense had to score a "crushing victory" against Notre Dame for Michigan to win Saturday and at any and all points in the future. The results were favorable:

Suck out two sacks for nine yards and Michigan's totals are 199 yards on 36 carries, or 5.5 YPC. With the sacks Michigan's total falls to 5 YPC, a number that would have been good for 18th nationally last year. Notre Dame's run D was #45 last year and returned virtually all of their key pieces. So that's fairly crushing even if the 31-yard Forcier touchdown was more improvisational genius than crushing victory.

The issues with the run game are the same ones Michigan had after week one: not enough Brandon Minor, too much Tate Forcier—and especially too much Tate Forcier trying to beat cornerbacks—and a lingering suspicion the offensive line might not get a ton better from where they were at the end of  last year.

None of that should matter much against this:

Though that's a respectable performance against Northwestern, Eastern had the #103 rushing defense in the country last year and is super unlikely to replicate that performance tomorrow. The main dangers are quick, undersized defensive linemen shooting gaps and Michigan's replacement right guard playing poorly. In all other ways Michigan should just out-athlete them, especially when Denard Robinson is in the game.

Key Matchup: Probably John Ferrara versus Severe Dropoff. It would be nice to see Moosman's replacement play well. Also can we add Tate Forcier versus the Misconception He Can Get The Corner Against College Defensive Backs?

Pass Offense vs. Eastern

Last week this "could go either way," and this is the way it went:

The other way mostly relies on excellent pickups from the backs—Carlos Brown had a couple crushing pickups last week and Brandon Minor is a fine blocker in his own right—and the idea that Forcier is, yes, Drew Tate, a guy extremely comfortable moving around and finding people downfield when the play breaks down. It's dangerous to blitz Pat White and it might be dangerous to blitz Forcier, albeit in a totally different way. If he evades the wave of defenders and breaks out to one side, we've already seen he can direct traffic to good effect.

Tate Forcier has now established himself as a prodigy, and even the big colossal error he turned in was actually a big colossal error on the part of Greg Mathews. At this point it's reasonable to assume he will perform beyond his years.

Eastern, for its part, got shredded last year. They were 116th in pass efficiency D and 100th in sacks; the only thing that kept opponents from running up huge yardage totals was pity. And then there's the whole Johnny Sears thing. Johnny Sears's two main excursions as a Michigan defensive back saw him get torched by Ball State and the perpetrators of Horror; merely interpreting this person as a useful member of your secondary is cause for serious concern. Forcier is going to have a lot of time and a lot of open receivers; so will Denard Robinson.

It's worth pointing out that Mike Kafka had a crappy game against Eastern, completing 14 of 24 for only 158 yards and an interception. I'm betting that says more about Kafka than Eastern.

Key Matchup: Denard Robinson versus Lack of Touch and Accuracy.

(BONUS: stormtrooper photoshopper notes laconically that he is "working on the actual costume for the illinois game." This moment demands I steal from Simmons: yep, these are my readers.)

Run Defense vs. Eastern

Michigan had severe issues against Notre Dame and their peanut-eating offensive line. (What did that even mean, anyway? "They can eat peanuts off our guys' heads." Are they elephants? Is it a reference to the "anybody want a peanut" line from the Princess Bride? I'm going with the latter because I want to.) Eastern… well… I'm betting there are a few gut-churning runs where a linebacker gets hooked or just runs in the wrong direction and the line creases and Eastern shoots a guy into the secondary. Their current totals are backwards from you might expect:

Erm. This preview could also be titled "why Lake The Posts should buy whiskey in quantity this fall." In fact… let me go change that. Okay.

Do you go with the horrendous Army numbers or the downright respectable day against a run defense that was decent last year? Probably somewhere in-between. The Northwestern numbers were no fluke and the Army numbers weren't quite that terrible: Andy Schmitt was sacked seven times for –53 yards; primary back Dwayne Priest averaged 4.4 YPC. Priest gashed Northwestern all day, averaging 7.5 with a long of just 35. He should have an okay day with a YPC we're a little uncomfortable with.

Key Matchup: Obi Ezeh versus The Solo Tackle. Two non-assists last week. He's got to improve or we're in trouble.

Pass Defense vs. Eastern

This is a spot where it could get dodgy. Eastern returns a senior quarterback in Andy Schmitt who… well, actually no. Schmitt in the first two games:

That is a ton of dinky completions akin to what we saw from Tim Hiller, except no one think Schmitt is an NFL prospect, and did I mention seven sacks against Army? Eastern's got one okay wideout and then little, has no offensive line to speak of, and has a quarterback averaging under 6 yards per attempt. EMU will complete its share of dinky hitches and slants and screens of all variety, most of which will be followed by immediate tackles if they are accurate and hauled in. Schmitt will be running for his life most of the day.

Key Matchup: Safeties versus huge error.

Special Teams

Darryl Stonum won a job as a kick returner against Notre Dame, but Martavious Odoms was pretty uninspiring and Cissoko's shoulder injury leaves the second spot in question. Carlos Brown maybe? Michigan will continue sending Greg Mathews out to fair-catch everything, and you are okay with that.

The kickers had an uneven game last Saturday, with Zoltan shanking one and not getting the booming death punts we all know and love; Jason Olesnavage hit a moderately long one but pushed a chip shot wide. Michigan will be looking for both to bounce back.

Key Matchup: HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL.

Intangibles

24-point spreads against MAC teams do not get kittens, but here's something else:

Yes, that's House and Wilson. 

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Cissoko starts getting lost against MAC receivers.
• Fumble fumble fumble fumble fumble death.
• EMU safeties go for killshots like ND's.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Ron English doesn't display a wildly increased ability to stop a spread offense.
• Tate Forcier.
• There is not massive regression on all fronts.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 out of 10. (Baseline 5, –1 for We Are A Team To Reckon With Now, –1 for With Prodigy QB, –1 for And They Are Probably A Terrible MAC Team, –1 for and Rich Rodriguez Doesn't Mess Around With These Folk, –1, for And Michigan Has Some Motivation, I Think, +1 for But Yeah That Defense Looked A Little Wonky).

Desperate need to win level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5, +1 for We Must Quash The Insurrection, +1 for Oh And If We Lose You Know All That Good Press Will Evaporate, +1 for Refuse To Lose To Johnny Sears, +1 for Oh Lord I Shudder To Even Think, +1 for This Is Just Not Happening.)

Loss will cause me to... appreciate the irony of life. Also buy a gun.

Win will cause me to...  shrug.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan wins.

Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Justin Turner and Will Campbell get extensive looks.
• Robinson throws almost as much as Forcier.
• Minor has a day similar to his outing against ND (15-ish carries, 100-ish yards).
• Brandon Graham finally gets a sack.
• Michigan, 48-10.

Essentials

Run Offense vs. Western

If Michigan wants to win football games this year, especially starting a freshman quarterback, they are going to have to run the ball well. As detailed extensively here and at Varsity Blue, they went from a horrible running team at the beginning of last year to an average-to-good one after the Penn State game. Returning every contributor from the offensive line with another year in the offensive system and the weight training program can only help.

The Broncos weren't particularly adept at stopping the run last year, ranking 62nd in the nation despite facing buzzsaw offenses like Idaho (#74 in rushing), Tennessee Tech (#95 - in Division 1-AA), Temple (#109), Ohio (#79), Buffalo (#75), Central Michigan (#72(!)), and Rice (#62). The Broncos did also face a couple top-30 teams, and some that were vaguely around the 50th percentile. Still, they gave up some serious rushing yardage to some bad teams. Michigan should have the talent advantage over every single one of those moribund teams and everyone the Broncos played against last year except Illinois (who the Broncos took down) and Nebraska. I say "should" because of last year.

That brings us to the horror show that is Western's front seven. The top two defensive ends and the 2nd and 3rd defensive tackles are gone. Cody Cielenski—all 274 pounds of him—is the only returning starter. That much turnover on a line that wasn't very good last year, could spell trouble for the Broncos' ability to defend the run.

The linebackers aren't quite as inexperienced, with 5th-year senior Austin Pritchard returning. He was second on the team in tackles last year, and was named first-team all-MAC. He'll be joined by Mitch Zajac and Justin Braska. Braska is a classic linebacker, while Zajac is the new-model converted-safety-type who can play in space, and will likely be a bigger hindrance to a spread team like the Wolverines.

Key Matchup: Michigan's Interior Offensive Linemen v. The Second Level. With an inexperienced defensive line facing Michigan's now-seasoned OL, the Wolverines in the trenches should be able to execute their initial double-teams and move up to the second level. If their athleticism is such that they can get blocks on linebackers and even secondary players, it could be Big Play City for the Michigan offense. Otherwise, it could be a grind-it-out kind of day, which might not be the best-case scenario for Michigan with Brandon Minor dinged up.

Still, Carlos Brown and Co. should be able to move the ball on the ground with, no matter what.

Pass Offense vs. Western

If Western's run defense was pretty bad last year, their pass defense was downright terrible. Facing the same motley crew of offenses, they finished #102 in the nation in pass defense. 9They were a more respectable #62 in pass efficiency defense.) That indicates they were in lots of shootouts last year (a couple) and games in which the opponent was trying to mount a comeback (a couple more).

The Bronco defense soared to those heights despite two players selected in the NFL Draft in Louis Delmas (2nd Round to the Lions, still technically in the NFL) and EJ Biggers (7th Round to the Buccaneers). I think it's safe to say that you can't expect WMU to replace two NFL-caliber players at one position group. Ohio State they are not. The lone returning starter is strong safety Mario Armstrong.

For Michigan's part, they're trying to erase the memory of a horrible passing game last year (#108 in the country). It's not like we'll be sending out a juggernaut against the Broncos' depleted corps. However, their must must must be an upgrade at quarterback, if only because there was no place to go but up. Tate Forcier will hopefully justify his reputation as a robo-QB, and all will be well as Junior Hemingway, Greg Mathews, and Martavious Odoms can stride from one end of the field to the other with ease.

Key Matchup: Michigan Freshman/Sheridan QBs v. Their Inherent Freshman/Sheridan Qualities. Western's secondary isn't going to be all that good. Their defensive line will only be able to provide a little bit of pressure. The main thing that can stop the Wolverine offense here is shooting itself in the foot. First-game jitters for the freshmen may lead to a little bit of that, and we all know what Sheridan can (or more accurately, can't) do.

The runner up in this category was Michigan Receivers v. The Dropsies. There have been some reports of mild problems in this category, and there are few things more frustrating than a wide open receiver droping a pass.

Run Defense vs. Western

Western has had a prolific offense in the Bill Cubit era, but they haven't been doing most of that work on the ground. They were 28th in total offense last year despite finishing #96 in rushing.  Their lack of rushing yardage, however, wasn't always for lack of trying. They tried with little success to pound the ball against Nebraska and Illinois. It will be interesting to see if that extreme pass skew holds up this year; Western has experienced running backs and offensive linemen and a green receiving corps.

Michigan's defense, on the other hand, is a wildcard. Hell, we aren't even positive what the schemes are going to be. Brandon Graham and Mike Martin are the anchors of the DL, and Ryan Van Bergen should be decent unless he has leverage problems with his height. The Western offensive line is pretty big, however, and they could wear out Michigan's DL, especially with the lack of depth Michigan has. Oft-MGoMaligned Obi Ezeh could be vulnerable in space. Brandon West and Aaron Winchester are the type of little darters (Winchester much more so) that have given him trouble in the past of the variety "Ezeh totally overruns the play (-1)."

Contain and discipline will be key.

Key Matchup: Michigan's Defense v. Getting Off The Field. As long as the Wolverines' defensive line doesn't have to play too many snaps, especially consecutively, they should be pretty good. This was a huge issue last year, when they'd force a third and long, and then allow the offense to convert.

Pass Defense vs. Western

This is the segment of the review were Legitimate Fear strikes Michigan fans. Tim Hiller has been prolific in his career to date and is one of Mel Kiper's top five senior quarterbacks. (Don't take that to the bank: Curtis Painter was Kiper's #1 at this time last year.)

There are some reasons for optimism here;

• Hiller is coming off offseason ACL surgery and is not necessarily in peak physical form.
• Western lost most of its receiving corps. Gone are 3 of last year's top 4 options. Juan Nunez returns as the team's best deep threat, but he's one of the very few guys left. Freshman Ansel Ponder should be a top target for Western, with good hands and enough speed to possibly get deep. The Broncos do have a number of tight ends that they may use as well.

Michigan's secondary, however, is about as inexperienced as the Bronco receivers. They won't be tested as much as you'd think, because most of Western's passes are caught within a few yards of the line of scrimmage. That does mean Michigan's linebackers, notorious for their inability to defend the pass, will have to make plays. This will be an early test for Michigan's revamped, speedier linebacker corps and their underneath coverage.

Key Matchup: Brandons Graham and Herron v. Western's Tackles. If Tim Hiller has time to throw the ball, he will find an open play and make a play. That's what 5th-year seniors do, especially those who are coming off all-conference season last year. Michigan needs to make sure they don't allow Hiller that time to make passes.

Special Teams

Both Western's kicker (John Potter) and punter (Ben Armer) return. Potter didn't kick enough field goals and extra points to register any higher than 16th in scoring from last year's MAC ledger. He was decent in his freshman year, and should improve as a sophomore.

The punting game was not so kind to the Broncos last year. They were 97th in the nation in net punting, with Armer barely eclipsing the 40yds/punt mark. If Michigan's returners can hold onto the damn ball, there should be some pretty good opportunities to get serious field position.

For Michigan's part, there is Space Punter and the Unknown. Olesnavage has never kicked a field goal or extra point, and his first real contribution to the team may have to come in crunch time. There is the slight relief that he beat out a scholarship guy in Brendan Gibbons, but I guess Jason Gingell had beaten out Bryan Wright before The Horror, as well.

Key Matchup: Olesnavage v. Angry Michigan-Hating Upset-Minded God. The past two years, Michigan has suffered humiliating upsets because of key missed field goals. If Michigan starts giving away points in special teams, we might be headed for an unfortunate repeat.

Intangibles

Hey, you know what didn't work out last year? Lack of cats.

Cats?

Cats.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• The linebackers and secondary look inept in covering the short passing game.
• Either Michigan freshman QB gets hurt, leaving Sheridan as the only viable backup option.
• The offensive line's reported improvement isn't really really obvious.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Michigan can get to Hiller over and over again.
• Tate Forcier looks as good against the Broncos as he did against backups in the spring game.
• Michigan linebackers are sniffing out the screens.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; –1 for You Have No Men Larger Than Minor On D, Let Alone Linemen, –1 for Still Have Pretty Decent MAC record, +1 for Sheridan Shall Be Sighted, –1 for But Not Much, +1 for Oh Lord Some Safety Is Going To Head Asplode Me.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for Duh.)

Loss will cause me to... Relive the depths of 2008, probably hear all week about how RichRod is sooo fired.

Win will cause me to... Breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to a year of potentially-competent football.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

This game looks to have the makings of an offensive shootout unless GERG Robinson is a miracle worker. Both defenses are expected to be subpar, Western's offense is good, and Michigan's offense is an unknown trending towards good. One team will probably put up decent numbers in order to win.

Offensive shootouts, of course, are typically decided by a couple key plays on defense. Be it a moment of general freshmanity for Forcier or Robinson, or a big sack by Brandon Graham to change field position, one mistake by either offense could decide this one. Considering Michigan's better overall talent level, it should be the Wolverines coming through with a big play.

Offensively, Michigan is still an unknown, mostly because of projected improvement at some positions (offensive line) and youth at another (quarterback). If Brandon Minor was fully healthy, I'd feel much better about this one, as we could probably RAGE down their throats all day. Even if he plays, though, he might be limited. That means a more diverse offense is probably necessary to find any success. That, in turn, means trusting unproven quarterbacks, which generally scares the hell out of me.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan executes a running play longer than 58 yards, their long last year. (It was Threet's gallop against Wisconsin.)
• Tate frustrates the hell out of fans at least once, but excites them more times than that.
• Hiller gets sacked at least three times.
• Michigan, 31-21. [Editor's note: put me down for 34-20.]

[Aaaaand we're out.]