commitment posts

GURU RATINGS

White first served notice he'd be a Big Ten level recruit at a camp shortly after his sophomore year:

A future Rivals100 candidate Austin White of Livonia (Mich.) Stevenson put on a show at the camp.

Claiming early oral offers from Michigan and Michigan State White, a running back, was asked several times to go up against the top linebackers in the camp and every time he came out victorious in the one-on-ones. He was even held so bad on one play that his jersey almost ripped off, but it couldn't stop the 6-foot, 185-pounder from still making a big catch.

Michigan and State followed up with official offers the first day they could do so, at which point Helmholdt said people should expect White to be "one of the top running back prospects in the country" and "challenge for top honors" in Michigan's 2010 class.

As you can see above, that didn't exactly happen. Though White checked in fourth—ahead of Robert Bolden—in a February ranking of the state's top ten players, two of the three scouting services put White amongst the three-star rabble when it came time to assign the stars. (FWIW, he didn't he didn't miss four by much on Rivals.) While the third, Scout, has him well within their top 300 they also have him considerably lower than analysts suggested he'd end up after White's initial burst onto the scene.

Wha' happen? It appears White didn't end up as big or as fast as you need to be to end up an elite prospect. ESPN's middling evaluation touches on his "great receiving skills" but kind of sounds McGuffian in its concern for his head:

White is a productive, well-rounded back with good upside when projecting for the next level. Has a taller frame for a back and needs to watch his leverage but has good muscle tone and the room to add 10-15 pounds of bulk to increase his power and durability. … not a burner with a great second gear or overly explosive. For a bigger high school back he goes down frequently on first contact and legs can go dead when wrapped up. At times, his high running style hinders his balance, running strength and ability to avoid trip-up tackles. Durability could be an issue at the next level as well if he does not run more behind his pads. … could eventually develop into the complete package at the next level if he can add the bulk and power to carry the load.

The traditionally reserved Touch The Banner's scouting report also notes the receiving ability and says he has the tools to be a read option back or receiver in the spread offense, but says he's not a gamebreaker and that he lacks the "speed and moves to be a finesse rider." The upshot:

Projection: White will be a solid but unspectacular back in a BCS-level program.

Reminds me of: Jerome Jackson.

I always liked Jerome Jackson, actually, and think he might have established himself a decent starter if not for his incredibly ill-timed injury at the beginning of the 2005 season that opened the door for a guy named Hart. Jackson was reduced to playing Wally Pipp until he came off the bench in the 2005 Iowa game.

I'd love to hear Scout's more positive take, but there's not much explanation behind their rankings. His profile is all you get:

An explosive back who can be used in a variety of roles. Has great feet and change of direction ability and makes many people miss in the open field. When he finds a crease, burst and acceleration are good and has breakaway capabilities. Is a fine receiver out of the backfield and has experience playing slot and split.

White might have some upward mobility yet after a positional MVP performance at the Illinois Nike camp:

White was the top running back at the camp. He flashed his excellent speed, has a powerful looking frame and can catch the ball. White, who has a dozen scholarship offers including Michigan, Michigan State, LSU, Illinois and Wisconsin, left no doubt on Saturday that he is a Big Ten-type prospect.

Helmholdt on the same camp:

Livonia Stevenson’s Austin White took home the MVP honors at the running back position with considerable ease. The 6-1, 185-pound White was nearly unstoppable in the one-on-one portion of the camp, using his speed to outrun would-be defenders. White’s footwork and agility in the drills portion of the camp also solidified his MVP honors.

We'll see that take effect, if it does at all, in the next Rivals re-rank. If he doesn't bounce up there he's a three-star unless his senior year is preposterous.

FWIW, recently the News named him the #2 playmaker on the West side of Metro Detroit going into 2009—Devin Gardner was #1, obvs—stating he is "one of the most dynamic running backs the last four years or so."

OFFERS

White's picked up an impressive but not quite world-beating assortment of offers: Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, LSU, and Iowa are the most prominent.

STATS

His junior year landed him on the Free Press's All West team, which gave them cause to sum the stats:

Austin White, Livonia Stevenson: One of the most dynamic backs in the state, White rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a sophomore and this season he became a more complete player. He rushed for 1,610 yards and 28 touchdowns on 228 carries. He returned nine kickoffs for 279 yards. White also had 21 receptions for 310 yards and four touchdowns. He even threw a touchdown pass. "It's almost like there's nothing he can't do," coach Tim Gabel said.

FAKE 40 TIME

What's the deal with the lack of fake 40 times of late? Not one article had a preposterous listed speed that would put a high school kid on par with Usain Bolt. All I've got is a camp-measured 4.58 from the Scout profile. What happened to the 4.16s of yesteryear?

VIDEO

This is a Livonia Stevenson highlight reel, not an Austin White one, but when you run for 1,600 yards your team's highlights tend to feature you heavily:

There is also the "Hammertime Play of the Week" from some week in the past. Please, Austin, don't hurt 'em.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

My thinking in this case has really latched on to TTB's Jerome Jackson comparison. And I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. Jackson was similarly sized and a mid-to-low four star on Rivals—I don't recall his Scout ranking. And while he wasn't Mike Hart he had a promising freshman season and once inserted into the lineup in that Iowa game he proved effective, far more so than Grady, at least.

White's a guy that most of the Big Ten wanted; the lone exceptions were Penn State and Ohio State. Add in the LSU offer and that's a serious argument White can be a productive back at the Big Ten level. His less than ideal size and speed combo would ideally see him function as the second back in a platoon system headed by a star back.

White's versatility will serve him well, though. He can function as a multi-purpose player that opponents will have a hard time preparing for when he comes in the game. Put him in space against a linebacker and it's advantage Michigan; line him up in a twin back set with a pounder like Minor or Cox against a nickel or dime and it's advantage Michigan.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

I addressed this in detail just yesterday, but to repeat: Michigan loses three tailbacks and Michigan's got two or three replacements in the class now. They'll be very picky the rest of the year, with Eduardo Clements and Brandon Gainer the only folks who seem like they'd be offered a spot no matter what. (If Brennan Clay decides to ditch Oklahoma, add him to the list.) Your Jamaal Jacksons and Cassius McDowells are out of luck.

Etc.: Tom VanHaaren interviews White.

PA DE/OLB Ken Wilkins committed to Michigan today at a press conference containing 2% suspense. (He did take a last visit to Pitt.) At 6'4" and around 240 pounds (probably), Wilkins is ticketed for deathbacker, where he'll compete with Jordan Paskorz.

GURU RATINGS & CHATTER

The words with Wilkins are "potential," "athleticism," and "tweener." ESPN's evaluation was mixed:

At his best playing in a phone booth; demonstrates good short-area power and burst as well as strong hand technique locking out blockers and shedding quickly and violently. Really uses his hands well at the point of attack and is difficult to turn out of the hole with his strong base and above average leverage. Strong tackler who shows good explosiveness from his hips and equally impressive upper-body strength tossing down backs for minimal second efforts. Very active and disruptive as a vertical attacker. Has deceptive quickness off the ball and utilize his long arms and hand strong hand technique to work the edge.

The downside was mostly linebacker stuff:

Coverage skills and overall hip-fluidity when needing to breakdown and mirror in space are marginal and do not project well if asked to play in space. Overall, we like Wilkins' potential as a Sam 'backer in a traditional 4-3 defense. A guy who could play up on the line on situational run downs and also stack the tight end from normal LB depth. Stock would be higher if had better hips and change-of-direction skill.

This continues the earlier theme where Michigan is picking up defensive players who project well in their defense but have issues, whether it's size or coverage problems, if asked to play in a traditional 3-4 or 4-3. Both Wilkins and Paskorz are somewhere between linebackers and defensive ends and punished in the rankings; maybe they can find a place at Michigan that fits their skills to a T.

The Pittsburgh Sports Report's recent top 25 placed Wilkins #15 in Pennsylvania:

Lean, 6'3" 225 pounder with a good physique, though he will need to get even stronger at the next level. He has good speed and athleticism. Many schools are looking at him as a linebacker, but he may ultimately be too stiff there, so there's a good chance that if he can gain the weight, he will eventually end up at end.

Their "bottom line" is that he's more of an athlete than a polished player but "could prosper in the right situation." I'm not sure if that weight is more or less accurate than the 244 cited by Mike Farrell here. Probably "more" since the Pittsburgh combine Wilkins was at shows him at 222.

His coach echoes the sentiment about his upside in an article about Wilkins making the all-state team as a junior:

"The sky is the limit for him," Dalton said of Wilkins. "He's one of the most phenomenal, naturally gifted athletes I've ever been around. He was born with gifts that a lot of people couldn't imagine having. … His only downside is his consistency," Dalton said. "He has to push himself to a higher level. He has a great motor but he needs to go at full speed every play and he knows that."

Various talent evaluators who've seen him at combines agree:

Kenny Wilkins, DE/OLB, Junior, Washington, Pa./Trinity

Wilkins was one of the most striking big men at the Pittsburgh combine. This 6-3, 220-pound defender ran a solid 4.7 40. He had a very good day and was physically one of the most impressive-looking athletes at the UPMC Sports Performance Complex. … Wilkins is a very good defensive player who definitely passes the "eyeball" test.

His coach again*:

"He is an unbelievable physical talent," Dalton said. "And he is only going to get better. I have had some great players here, but nothing like Ken physically. I am not saying he is going to be better than Yancich and Sweat, but he is the most physically talented player I've had."

*(This article has died and gone to 404, but is replicated several other places on the internet.)

OFFERS

Wilkins had an impressive set of offers but lacked heavy-hitters outside of the Michigan one:

Pitt, Michigan, Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland currently lead, and all have offered. Other offers include Wisconsin, Boston College, North Carolina, NC State, Illinois and Rutgers.

Penn State and Ohio State were apparently thinking about offers but didn't end up providing them.

STATS

Junior stats:

Wilkins made 84 tackles including eight sacks during his junior season.

FAKE 40 TIME

This one gets two FAKES of three:

At 6-4, 245 pounds and a 4.6-40-yard dash time on his resume, Wilkins used his size, speed and quickness to terrorize opposing offenses.

No, not so much. Wilkins' impressive combine showing above was at 220 and he ran a 4.74 there.

VIDEO

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Wilkins, like a couple other guys in the class, seems underrated because he doesn't fit into a lot of defenses like he does in Michigan's 4-3 under, where his combination of size and athleticism will serve him well. Let's not get too carried away with that theory, though: USC plays the same defense and doesn't recruit a bunch of three stars with an eye on their defensive scheme. Wilkins has a lot of work to do in the weight room and with technique before getting to a point where he can use his athlecism; thus the rankings.

The combination of effusive praise like we see from his coach above, his "hello, nurse!" appearances at combines, the offers, and the  "eh-plus" guru rankings indicates a boom-or-bust sort who could put it all together and terrorize or float out to sea on the SS Alain Kashama.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

GURU RATINGS

The "150 watch list" was a much more exiting designation early last year, before it became clear that ESPN was putting almost 500 kids on it. Still, with a variety of Michigan prospects already evaluated and shoved outside of the list the implication is Pace will probably acquire the ESPN equivalent of four stars. Their reasoning for this:

Comes off the ball like a locomotive and derails the defensive lineman on run blocks. Really dominates the defender on base and drive blocks. Fires out low and hard with a flat back and strikes the defensive lineman across with a jarring first punch. Follows the initial blow delivery with great leg drive; churns legs like pistons. Impressive reach and zone blocker; uses excellent footwork in gaining position on the edge defender.

There are some concerns about pass protection, but the final words are "aggressiveness," "nastiness," and "pit bull." It's a very positive assessment.

Though Scout and Rivals are not as enthused, interior linemen often get short shrift—name a position other than kicker where the #5 player in the country doesn't get a fourth star—and as we'll see Pace has a solid offer list. I'm considerably less concerned with his ranking than I was for the various Michigan commits who play sexier spots and didn't have a lot of other schools clamoring for his attention.

Touch The Banner provides a more reserved scouting report:

Pace does an excellent job of finishing his blocks; the running back is sometimes seven or eight yards downfield and Pace is still latched onto his man. When he gets a pancake block, he often just lies on top of his man, which is demoralizing for a defensive player. He drives his legs and doesn't just use his mass to move smaller defenders.

When releasing to the second level, Pace plays a little high. He can probably outmuscle players on the second level, but the problem lies in a lack of agility when linemen get out in open space and play too high. Playing lower will give him more power, but it will also give him a better opportunity to stay in front of those smaller, quicker linebackers. He also needs to work on lower body strength, as he gets stalemated by smaller players at times.

And Ohio Varsity took a look($); it's premium so I'll quote sparingly:

His agility is what sets him apart from most linemen, as he has the ability to get out in space and execute blocks against smaller, faster defenders. Pace thrives as a pulling guard and his film features numerous plays where he rockets out of his stance and immediately becomes a dangerous 265-pound lead blocker.

…eh, not going to see a lot of pulling at Michigan but that agility and ability to operate on the second level will come in handy.

It's worth noting that Pace's size is up for debate. Some places have him as big as 6'4", 270, but Scout's profile lists him at a comparatively shrimpy 6'2", 252, and that's backed up by the weight of a combine appearance. If the latter is accurate—and I tend to believe it is, since, you know, they measured—that would push him more towards center and make this David Molk comparison stronger.

OFFERS

The full dossier as of a month and a half ago:

Pace' offer list also includes Michigan, Michigan State, Pitt, Louisville, North Carolina State, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Colorado, Wake Forest and a host of MAC schools.

By the time of his commitment he had added South Carolina, Florida State, and Illinois.

STATS

Offensive linemen don't have stats.

FAKE 40 TIME

Pace is credited with a 5.22 from that combine, which gets zero FAKE out of three.

VIDEO

There is also Scouting Ohio video, and if you loved "Christian Cullen" jumping over stuff and sort of running places, you'll love the Pace Christian edition. Yeah, I watched it. It was 33 seconds of pure bliss.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

As mentioned above I'm far less concerned about the three stars here because of Pace's offers and position; also he sounds like the kind of guy who's a good fit for the reach-heavy zone read game but not likely to blow collegiate linemen off the ball, which potentially makes him more valuable to Michigan than Random College Football Program.

Pace's size all but guarantees a redshirt. From there he'll have the opportunity to compete for Steve Schilling's vacated guard slot, but with Washington and Barnum and so forth and so on the most likely scenario in which Pace finds a starting job is by winning the center melee after Molk's departure.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Pace is the first offensive lineman in the class and won't have much of an effect on Michigan's strategy going forward. Keeping the numbers level would require another three players (McAvoy, Moosman, and Ortmann graduate and Wermers have transferred), at least one of whom should be a tackle. They'd obviously like to add MN OL Seantrel Henderson and FL OL Torrian Wilson; past that there are a couple of Ohioans, Andrew Donnal and Skyler Schoefner, and a vast sea of undifferentiated offerees that will likely develop into a few serious targets.