bubble watch

Was this enough? We'll find out tonight.

Hold onto your butts.

On Selection Sunday, Michigan is either one of the final at-large squads in the NCAA Tournament field or just on the wrong side of the bubble, depending on where you look. Before we get into the bracket projections and your rooting guide for today, here's a look at Michigan's final tournament resumé:

Record: 22-12 (21-12 vs. D-I), 10-8 Big Ten
RPI: 58
KenPom: 55
RPI Strength of Schedule: 44
KP SOS: 45
RPI 1-25: 3-7
RPI 26-50: 1-4
RPI 51-100: 0-1
RPI 101+: 17-0

The above is why the oft-cited "record vs. RPI top-100" stat can be very frustrating; ten of Michigan's 16 games in that category have come against top-25 teams. Here's hoping the committee makes that distiction instead of oversimplifying.

For the most part, Michigan is projected to make it into the field. ESPN's Joe Lunardi came to that realization in his latest update despite leaving M out of the tourney even after the Indiana win; he now has the Wolverines as the third-to-last team in, playing a First Four game against San Diego State. Yahoo's Brad Evans has Michigan as the second-to-last at-large; SI's Michael Beller has them as the fourth-to-last team to make it. CBS's Jerry Palm is the more bullish, projecting Michigan as an 11-seed that avoids the First Four—and matching them up against Dayton, oddly enough.

So they're in, right? Unfortunately, it's not quite that certain. Two of the most accurate bracket prognosticators in recent years, according to the Bracket Matrix, still have Michigan missing the tournament. The Washington Post's Patrick Stevens places M as the third team out, citing that damned RPI stat:

A really tricky team. The Wolverines bagged a late victory over Indiana in the Big Ten tournament, and they have three top-25 victories. They’re also 4-12 against the top 100, which is even worse than UCLA’s 5-10, which proved good enough, a year ago. Michigan doesn’t have UCLA’s top-60 non-conference schedule strength, either. The inclination is to say the Wolverines are off to the NIT.

Assembly Call's Andy Bottoms also brings up that damned RPI stat in projecting M as the second team out:

Following a loss to Purdue on Saturday, times are tense in Ann Arbor. They have four great wins but are just 4-12 against the Top 100. While they don’t have a bad loss, a low total of quality wins and the fact that 11 of their 12 losses have come by at least nine points with 10 by double digits. The other concern is the non-conference strength of schedule, which ranks around 190th. Outside of a win over Texas, the best non-con victories came against North Carolina State and Elon.

There will be precedent broken no matter what happens with the Wolverines. No Big Ten team to finish with a winning conference record in the last five years has been left out; conversely, no team with as poor a record against the RPI top-100 (I know, I know) has made it.

One thing seems certain: if Michigan doesn't make it, John Beilein's suboptimal non-conference scheduling—at least as it pertains to RPI rankings—will largely be to blame.

Your rooting interest for this afternoon is simple: you want UConn, which has secured an at-large spot with their run through the conference tourney, to beat potential bid-thief Memphis in the American title game (3:15 pm, ESPN). The NCAA selection show begins at 5:30 pm on CBS; if Michigan is left out, the NIT selection show is at 8:30 on ESPNU.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Michigan took the home leg against Purdue in their last matchup. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

Moe Wagner's extended playing time today has been explained, at least in part, by the revelation that Ricky Doyle hurt his ankle late in the Northwestern game. Doyle played four minutes, all in the first half, compared to 16 effective minutes for Wagner, who's likely to serve as Mark Donnal's primary backup given the injury and his strong showing today.

THE LAST TIME

Zak Irvin scored 16 of his 22 points in the second half to lead a late Michigan rally for a 61-56 win over Purdue at the Crisler Center. Irvin was the only Wolverine in double figures, but Michigan held Purdue to only 0.92 points per possession and a 15/41 mark from inside the arc.

THE STAKES

Michigan's victory over Indiana took them from clearly outside the field to very much in the at-large conversation, but a bid isn't sewn up yet. ESPN's Eamonn Brennan gives his outlook in ESPN's Bubble Watch:

In situations like these -- when bubble teams grab a huge win in conference tourney play -- it is typical for fans to assume their team must automatically be lifted into the field. Not so fast. As important as a late-season neutral-court tourney win against a top-20 RPI outfit is, and thrilling as it was, Friday was nonetheless Michigan's fourth top-100 win of the season. Its sub-200 nonconference schedule is still dead weight. The Wolverines' lack of bad losses compares favorably to other bubble teams, but a 4-11 top-100 record hardly makes for a sure bet. For now, it's more like a 50-50 bet. One more win like Friday's would do much to strengthen those odds.

With some potential bid thieves still out there, 50-50 seems accurate right now. ESPN's Joe Lunardi still had Michigan out of the field when he gave an update on TV following the game, though he had Vanderbilt ahead of the Wolverines, which I have a hard time seeing after the Commodores lost to a sub-.500 Tennessee squad in their SEC Tournament opener. Yahoo's Brad Evans, on the other hand, currently has Michigan as the last at-large in the field.

A win would seal up a bid. A loss and Michigan might need some help. Pull hard against Tulsa and St. Bonaventure tonight.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Same. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

Surprise! Getting four cracks at a fourth top-100 victory only to fall short in all of them is bad for a team's NCAA Tournament chances. Michigan was already in a precarious spot heading into the weekend; after falling to Iowa, they need at least two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to avoid missing the dance for the second straight season.

Michigan's resumé as it currently stands:

Record: 20-11 (19-11 vs. D-I), 10-8 Big Ten
RPI: 70
KenPom: 54
RPI Strength of Schedule: 69
KP SOS: 54
RPI Top-50: 3-9
RPI 51-100: 0-2
RPI 101+: 16-0

Unless Penn State (#114) pulls some upsets in the BTT—they draw Ohio State in the second round for the right to play Michigan State—Michigan isn't going to pick up any more RPI top-100 victories without an upset over Indiana; that, of course, would require the Wolverines to beat Northwestern on Thursday, which KenPom projects has a 57% chance of happening.

Of the 89 brackets currently comprising the Bracket Matrix, Michigan makes only 46 of them, and the more recently updated brackets almost all omit the Wolverines; they're the second team left out of the field in the consensus. After updating his bracket last night, CBS's Jerry Palm placed M as one of the first four teams out, citing the lack of quality wins as the primary reason they're not in:

Michigan has fallen off the bracket for now. The Wolverines lost at home to Iowa 71-61 on Saturday to fall to 3-9 against the top 50, 3-11 against the top 100 and 10-11 against the top 200.

Those are all bad numbers. Michigan will have a lot of work to do in Indianapolis at the Big Ten tournament.

Michigan fell off the Yahoo big board. They're the fourth team out to ESPN's Joe Lunardi. Notably, Michigan is projected to miss the tourney before accounting for the inevitable bid-stealers that will arise from the conference tournaments this week. Even if the Wolverines get a lot of help from other bubble teams, it's difficult to see a path to the tournament that doesn't involve a victory against Indiana.

I guess I'll post a rooting guide anyway. Teams you want are in bold, bubble teams are in italics.

• Monmouth vs. Iona (MAAC championship) (tonight, 7 pm, ESPN)
• Green Bay vs. Valparaiso (Horizon semifinal) (tonight, 7 pm, ESPNU)
• Pepperdine vs. St. Mary's (WCC semifinal) (tonight, 9 pm, ESPN)
• BYU vs. Gonzaga (WCC semifinal) (tonight, 11:30 pm, ESPN2)*

• Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh (ACC 2nd round) (Wednesday, noon, ESPN)
• Washington State vs. Colorado (Pac-12 1st round) (Wednesday, 5:30, Pac-12 Network)
• UCLA vs. USC (Pac-12 1st round) (Wednesday, 9 pm, Pac-12 Network)
• Arizona State vs. Oregon State (Pac-12 1st round) (Wednesday, 11:30 pm, Pac-12 Network)

• Arkansas vs. Florida (SEC 2nd round) (Thursday, 1 pm, SEC Network)
• Butler vs. Providence (Big East quarterfinal) (Thursday, 2:30 pm, FS1)
• Penn State vs. Ohio State (Big Ten 2nd round) (Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN2)

*You want St. Mary's to beat the winner in the title game; both BYU and Gonzaga are on the bubble but the Zags are closer to getting in.

Michigan could use a little help from Penn State. [Bryan Fuller]

Before digging into the current bracket projections, let's look at how the games listed in Monday's Punching The Ticket (and a couple I forgot to include) turned out. Michigan wanted the teams in bold to win.

• UNC beat Syracuse
• Kansas beat Texas.
• Kentucky beat Florida
• Vanderbilt beat Tennessee
• George Washington beat George Mason
• St. Mary's beat Grand Canyon
• Virginia Tech beat Pitt
• VCU beat Davidson
• Butler beat Seton Hall
• Arkansas beat Alabama
• NC State beat Boston College
• Providence beat Creighton
• USC beat Oregon State

It's a mixed bag, as these tend to be, but two SEC squads—Florida and Alabama—are on the wrong side of the bubble after losses this week.

Michigan's resumé as it currently stands:

Record: 20-10 (19-10 vs. D-I), 10-7 Big Ten
RPI: 57
KenPom: 49
RPI Strength of Schedule: 68
KP SOS: 53
RPI Top-50: 3-8
RPI 51-100: 0-2
RPI 101+: 16-0

Penn State remains just outside the RPI top-100 cut at #105, but they've got a good chance to finish strong and give Michigan a pair of quality wins in the process; the Nittany Lions finish the regular season with home games against Northwestern and Illinois. NC State didn't exactly cover themselves in glory with a one-point victory over winless-in-the-ACC Boston College; they still remain in striking distance at #115. The Wolfpack breaking into the top 100 would give Michigan another quality win. Yes, I still realize the top-100 cutoff is stupid and arbitrary, but that's how it works.

Not that this is a surprise since Michigan hasn't yet this week, but the Wolverines' standing in projected brackets remains relatively unchanged. ESPN and CBS still have them in a play-in game as one of the final four at-large teams to make the field; Yahoo still has them as an 11-seed narrowly avoiding a First Four game. While Michigan is one of the last four at-large teams on the Bracket Matrix, they're included in 94 of the 108 brackets. A victory over Iowa on Saturday night would almost certainly lock up a spot.

Here are your rooting interests for this weekend. You want the teams in bold; teams in italics are on the bubble; other games are included for RPI purposes:

• Memphis at Temple (tonight, 7 pm, ESPNU)
• Georgia at South Carolina (tonight, 7 pm, ESPN2)
• UConn at SMU (tonight, 9 pm, ESPN2)
• Cincinnati at Houston (tonight, 9 pm, CBSSports)
• Northwestern at Penn State (tonight, 9 pm, ESPNU)

• Yale at Cornell (Friday, 6 pm)
• Princeton at Harvard (Friday, 7 pm, ESPN3)

• Vanderbilt at Texas A&M (Saturday, noon, ESPN2)
• NC State at Notre Dame (Saturday, noon, CBS)
• Ohio State at Michigan State (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
• Providence at St. John's (Saturday, 12:30 pm, FS1)
• Syracuse at Florida State (Saturday, 2 pm, ESPN2)
• Pitt at Georgia Tech (Saturday, 2 pm)
• Marquette at Butler (Saturday, 2:30 pm, Fox/FSN)
• Creighton at Xavier (Saturday, 2:30 pm, Fox)
• Kansas State at Texas Tech (Saturday, 3 pm, ESPNews)
• George Washington at Davidson (Saturday, 3:30 pm, NBCSports)
• Alabama at Georgia (Saturday, 4 pm, ESPN2)
• Oregon at USC (Saturday, 4 pm, Pac-12 Network)
• South Carolina at Arkansas (Saturday, 5 pm, SEC Network)
• USF at Tulsa (Saturday, 5 pm, ESPNews)
• Oregon State at UCLA (Saturday, 6:30 pm, Pac-12 Network)
• Princeton at Dartmouth (Saturday, 7 pm)
• Yale at Columbia (Saturday, 7 pm)
• Florida at Missouri (Saturday, 7:30 pm, SEC Network)
• St. Bonaventure at St. Louis (Saturday, 8 pm)
• VCU at Dayton (Saturday, 8 pm, CBSSports)
• Colorado at Utah (Saturday, 9:30 pm, ESPNU)
• UNLV at San Diego State (Saturday, 10 pm, CBSSports)
• Portland at Gonzaga (Saturday, 11:59 pm, ESPN2)

• SMU at Cincinnati (Sunday, noon, CBS)
• Illinois at Penn State (Sunday, noon, BTN)
• UCF at UConn (Sunday, 2 pm, ESPNU)
• Temple at Tulane (Sunday, 2 pm, ESPN3)

Yes, you can conceivably bubble-watch on Saturday for a solid 14 hours. This is not recommended by the Surgeon General or your marriage counselor.

Michigan is running out of margin for error. [Patrick Barron]

Michigan's loss at Wisconsin was far from unexpected. Nonetheless, the Wolverines are even closer to the wrong side of the bubble than they were heading into the weekend. The loss to the Badgers didn't help; neither did a couple results that affected opponent RPI rankings.

The resumé as it currently stands:

Record: 20-10 (19-10 vs. D-I), 10-7 Big Ten
RPI: 57
KenPom: 47
RPI Strength of Schedule: 67
KP SOS: 49
RPI Top-50: 3-8
RPI 51-100: 0-2
RPI 101+: 16-0

Two teams that would give Michigan a combined three more RPI top-100 victories sit just on the outside of that cutoff: Penn State (#105) and NC State (#106) both lost over the weekend. The Wolfpack's defeat was doubly disappointing since it came against Syracuse, another bubble team currently ahead of Michigan on most bracket projections.

The updated Bracket Matrix sums up Michigan's position: in the field but on the edge. Despite being included in 72 of the 77 brackets, they're one of the last four at-large teams included in the consensus field; most projections have them on the 10- or 11-seed line. After being a nine-seed to both Yahoo and ESPN heading into the weekend, Michigan is a ten on the former and projected to a play-in game as an 11 on the latter. CBS still projects M as one of the last four teams in the field, playing a ten-seed play-in against St. Bonaventure. The Easy Bubble Solver also has the Wolverines as one of the final at-large squads.

There is, of course, one more chance for Michigan to all but lock up a bid in the regular season. KenPom gives M a 46% chance of beating a reeling Iowa squad on Saturday; it's hard to imagine the Wolverines missing the field with 11 Big Ten wins and a fourth against the RPI top-50.

If Michigan misses that opportunity, they'll at the very least need to win their Big Ten Tournament opener, and they're essentially locked into the eight-seed after the Wisconsin loss, which would set up a second-round matchup against Penn State, Nebraska, or Northwestern, followed by a third-round matchup against the top seed (currently Indiana, with Maryland and MSU still in the running).

Here's your rooting guide for the week. Team you want to win is in bold, fellow bubble teams are in italics, other games included for RPI purposes.

• Syracuse at UNC (tonight, 7 pm, ESPN)
• Kansas at Texas (tonight, 9 pm, ESPN)
• Kentucky at Florida (Tuesday, 7 pm, ESPN)
• Tennessee at Vanderbilt (Tuesday, 7 pm, SEC Network)
• George Mason at George Washington (Tuesday, 8 pm)
• Grand Canyon at St. Mary's (Tuesday, 10 pm)
• Davidson at VCU (Wednesday, 7 pm, CBSSports)
• Seton Hall at Butler (Wednesday, 8:30 pm, FS1)
• Boston College at NC State (Wednesday, 9 pm, ESPN3)
• Creighton at Providence (Wednesday, 9 pm, CBSSports)
• Oregon State at USC (Wednesday, 11 pm, FS1)
• Memphis at Temple (Thursday, 7 pm, ESPNU)
• UConn at SMU (Thursday, 9 pm, ESPN2)
• Cincinnati at Houston (Thursday, 9 pm, CBSSports)
• Northwestern at Penn State (Thursday, 9 pm, ESPNU)

I'll update this heading into the weekend.

M's narrow loss to Maryland leaves them with work to do. [Paul Sherman]

When we last checked in on Michigan's NCAA Tournament chances, the Wolverines needed to take care of business against Northwestern and perhaps add another quality win to feel secure about their standing heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan accomplished part one last night, which has kept them on the right side of the bubble; they're still searching for that statement win.

The resumé as it currently stands:

Record: 20-9 (19-9 vs. D-I), 10-6 Big Ten
RPI: 50
KenPom: 46
RPI Strength of Schedule: 68
KP SOS: 59
RPI Top-50: 3-8
RPI 51-100: 1-1
RPI 101+: 15-0

Since the last update, NC State has inched inside the RPI top 100 at #99, at least temporarily providing Michigan with a fourth win over such a squad. Northwestern (#105) and Penn State (#108) could give them three more top-100 wins with strong finishes to the season; while the cutoff is arbitrary, it stands out when committee members are sifting through a pile of spreadsheets.

[Hit THE JUMP for a look at updated brackets and your weekend rooting guide.]