blogpoll ballots

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	Cincinnati
5	TCU
6	Boise State
7	Georgia Tech
8	Pittsburgh
9	Oregon	1
10	Ohio State	4
11	LSU
12	Oklahoma State	4
13	Penn State	2
14	Stanford	7
15	Virginia Tech	2
16	Iowa	7
17	Southern Cal	4
18	Oregon State	4
19	Wisconsin
20	Miami (Florida)	2
21	Utah	1
22	Nebraska	2
23	Arizona	4
24	Brigham Young	1
25	Texas Tech	2
Last week's ballot

Not a lot of change near the very top. Ohio State is a big mover on the basis of their victory over Iowa. I may have punished the Hawkeyes a bit too much, but I think the loss to Northwestern (at home) should have been punished a little more harshly. Of course, now there's the matter of Ohio State's home loss to USC looking much, much worse.

The biggest riser in the poll is Stanford. Despite their bad loss to Wake, they have two of the most impressive wins in the country, beating the crap out of a top-10 team and a top-20 team in consecutive weeks.

LSU confirmed my skepticism of them, squeaking by Louisiana Tech in a game that wasn't really decided until well into the fourth quarter.

I kinda think Texas Tech should drop out, but that raises the familiar problem of finding a team to plug in. Might Navy be that team? Their only losses are to Ohio State, Pitt, and... uh... Temple. But wait! Temple is actually kinda good this year! It is a mystery. I'm open for suggestions on what to do towards the end, always.

Comments on anything and everything in the ballot are welcome.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	Cincinnati	1
5	TCU	3
6	Boise State	1
7	Georgia Tech	3
8	Pittsburgh	6
9	Iowa	5
10	Oregon	4
11	LSU	2
12	Houston	1
13	Ohio State	3
14	Southern Cal	1
15	Penn State	3
16	Oklahoma State	1
17	Virginia Tech	1
18	Miami (Florida)	2
19	Arizona
20	Utah	3
21	Stanford
22	Oregon State
23	Texas Tech	2
24	Nebraska
25	Brigham Young
Last week's ballot

Dude, the deltas on my ballot are not working at all. That probably (helps) explain why I got Mr. Stubborn last week, and it actually looks like I may be cruising for that award again.

I moved Texas ahead of Alabama, because the 'Horns showed that even when they play horribly, they're capable of blowing a team out.

I'm finally giving Pitt the respect they've probably deserved for the past couple week. I think that NC State loss was really holding me back, but there's hardly anybody out there who hasn't had a couple sketchy games.

I was surprised how little Iowa and Oregon moved down. I'm not sure if I like the small difference there, but I think the resumes still fit.

I don't like moving BYU in at the end of the poll, since they've gotten blown out in their only two games against actual competition. I also don't like dropping Wisconsin (though their resume isn't too different from BYU's). I think I'll switch Wisconsin back out for BYU in the final.

Comment away!

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	3
2	Alabama	1
3	Florida
4	Iowa	2
5	Cincinnati
6	Oregon	4
7	Boise State	2
8	TCU	1
9	LSU	1
10	Georgia Tech	2
11	Houston
12	Penn State	1
13	Southern Cal	7
14	Pittsburgh	2
15	Notre Dame	3
16	Ohio State	1
17	Oklahoma State	2
18	Virginia Tech	4
19	Arizona
20	Miami (Florida)
21	Wisconsin	1
22	California	1
23	Utah	2
24	Auburn
25	Texas Tech
Last week's ballot

Why yes, that does indeed look very similar to the first draft

Only one big change from the draft ballot. As someone mentioned in the comments, Texas's resume looks better than Alabama's now that all of Alabama's opponents have waned in recent weeks (OMG the SEC is just too strong to have any good teams other than the top two). That pushes the Longhorns to the top of the poll.

The other major quibble people had in the comments was where to rank Boise and Oregon in relation to each other. A lot of people said "Head to head, Boise must be first," and the counter-argument is "You can't rank teams based on one game." I clearly fall into the latter camp, as you can see by the ballot to your left.

Despite Boise head-to-head victory, and even their better overall record, I am of the opinion that the Ducks have put together a better overall resume to this point. Ironically, many of those pushing for Boise State to be moved past Oregon were saying things like

"In those cases, you have other data points,"

which, dude, that's an argument against your position, not for it. The two teams' respective resumes are below, along with the Sagarin ratings and records of all their opponents. You can decide for yourself what you think, I say it tips in favor of the Ducks. If enough people can put together MULTIPLE DATA POINTS and come up with legit reasons for Boise to take the crown, I'm all ears. "They stay ahead until they lose" is not legit, it's idiotic AP Poll-ism.

The only other qualm people brought up in the comments was potentially moving TCU past Boise State. For now, the main reason I left it as-is was that I didn't want to separate Oregon and Boise by more than one poll position. This week, they play relatively similar opponents in San Diego State and Louisiana Tech. If there's a big enough difference in their outcomes, I'll consider a move.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama
2	Texas	2
3	Florida
4	Iowa	2
5	Cincinnati
6	Oregon	4
7	Boise State	2
8	TCU	1
9	LSU	1
10	Georgia Tech	2
11	Houston
12	Penn State	1
13	Southern Cal	7
14	Pittsburgh	2
15	Notre Dame	3
16	Ohio State	1
17	Oklahoma State	2
18	Virginia Tech	4
19	Arizona
20	Miami (Florida)
21	Wisconsin	1
22	California	1
23	Utah	2
24	Auburn
25	Texas Tech
Last week's ballot

I'm pretty comfortable with the moves during the top. Texas got a new marquee win, and Iowa was far less impressive against Indiana than the final score indicated. It also seems pretty likely that Iowa is going to grab Stanziball from the jaws of victory at some point this year.

I think Oregon ahead of Boise State is justifiable, despite the head-to-head result. The Ducks have beaten USC, Utah, Cal, and a couple other teams that are looking pretty strong. The only good win for Boise is Oregon, and if you're looking to be highly-ranked coming from a weak conference, it's probably a better idea to not schedule awful 1-AA teams.

TCU and LSU drop primarily because of the Oregon victory, and the boost it gave both the Ducks and Broncos. Everything else is pretty self-explanatory, but the end of the poll, as usual is a mess.

Resumes after the jump

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama
2	Iowa	3
3	Florida	1
4	Texas	1
5	Cincinnati	1
6	Southern Cal	1
7	TCU	2
8	LSU	2
9	Boise State	3
10	Oregon	1
11	Houston	1
12	Georgia Tech	3
13	Penn State	1
14	Virginia Tech	1
15	Oklahoma State	1
16	Pittsburgh
17	Ohio State	4
18	Notre Dame	4
19	Arizona
20	Miami (Florida)	12
21	South Carolina	2
22	Wisconsin	2
23	California
24	West Virginia
25	Utah
Last week's ballot

Changes from draft:

I looked at moving Texas or Florida past Iowa, or moving Texas ahead of Florida, but I couldn't justify it. There was a lot of hand-wringing about Iowa in the comments, but their whole body of work is more impressive than the other two, IME. Penn State, Wisconsin, and Arizona are definitely all high-quality wins, especially considering they were all 10ish-point margins of victory. The Arkansas State and Northern Iowa games are slight demerits, but Florida and Texas haven't been without their scares this year, either. Add in the fact that Iowa State is respectable(!!!), and the Hawkeyes have put together a heck of a season so far.

I knocked BYU out of the poll in favor of West Virginia, and moved Utah down to the last spot. LSU moves ahead of Boise State on a deeper set of wins. That puts Oregon adjacent to the Boise State team that beat them. If the Ducks can beat USC this week, I think we can justify moving them past the team with the head-to-head win and better record.

I still feel a little weird having Houston in the top 15, seeing as how they got blasted by UTEP, but their set of wins is surprisingly impressive (a little less so with Texas Tech losing to A&M in embarrassing fashion).

I considered Central Michigan, but they have beaten absolutely nobody outside of MIchigan State, and they do have a loss on the year (albeit a quality one to Arizona).

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama
2	Iowa	3
3	Florida	1
4	Texas	1
5	Cincinnati	1
6	Southern Cal	1
7	TCU	2
8	Boise State	2
9	LSU	1
10	Oregon	1
11	Houston	1
12	Georgia Tech	3
13	Penn State	1
14	Virginia Tech	1
15	Oklahoma State	1
16	Pittsburgh
17	Ohio State	4
18	Notre Dame	4
19	Arizona
20	Miami (Florida)	12
21	South Carolina	2
22	Wisconsin	2
23	California
24	Utah
25	Brigham Young	6
Last week's ballot

Pretty self-explanatory this week. A few teams move up, primarily because I was undervaluing them last week (Iowa, Arizona, Pitt). Sadly, that probably makes me a pretty good candidate for Mr. Manic-Depressive this week, but that's how it goes sometimes.

There isn't too much I'm uncomfortable with. I think the top 10 is rock-solid, although near-stumbles by 'Bama, Florida, and Iowa might give Texas an opening. As usual, the last few teams in the poll are barely hanging on. If anyone can come up with other teams that have a legitimate argument for being included in the poll, let me know in the comments.

Resumes after the jump, your feedback in the comments.