basketball

Michigan 13-14 (6-9 Big Ten)

OK, I swear I'm going to stop trying to come up with clever titles for the last couple games unless something really hits me (maybe "Euthanasia" for the Big Ten Tournament loss). Midway through the first half of this game, it was going just as expected: Michigan was getting absolutely killed even if the scoreboard didn't show it. My ongoing sense of basketball malaise had already set in. Then, early in the second half, something funny happened: they started fighting back. It's just like this Michigan basketball team to keep me emotionally invested before ripping my heart out. Predictably, after taking a brief lead they collapsed, allowing the Illini to cruise to a comfortable win.

This game was a microcosm of the season: ultimately disappointing, but with enough hope sprinkled in to make it actually hurt so the fans can't just stay numb. Another microcosm of the season? A sequence late in the second half. Michigan nearly forces a shot-clock violation. Brandon Paul blatantly travels (uncalled, of course), before getting the ball to DJ Richardson, who hoists a 30-footer that barely beats the 35-second buzzer. Win for the defense, right? The ball ricochets directly to Mike Tisdale, and the Illini get some easy second-chance points.

This had to be one of the worst shooting performances Michigan could have put forth (and no, idiot who sits behind press row, it's not on the coaches—like they can hear your whiny bellowing anyway). They were getting open shots from three-point range and mid-range, they were getting into the lane for easy layups—this was not a failure of offensive design. However, the final shooting numbers were ugly: 24.6% from the field, 29.2 eFG%.

There was nothing the coaches could do to get the team shooting better. Can't make an outside shot? Go inside to DeShawn (3-12 on two-pointers). DeShawn's not scoring? Let Manny drive the lane (4-12 on two-pointers). The only people that had anything resembling a spark for Michigan were Zack Novak and Zack Gibson. Gibby shot 50% (1/4 from three-point land) and Novak made four threes.

As the season winds down, and it's clear that nothing's going to change with this team, I start begging for a painless release. They've lost confidence, and rightfully so, and probably the only thing that's going to restore it at this point is to move on from the 2009-10 season.

BULLETS

• Layups. Dude, layups. Michigan missed 15 of them. Nothing was working. If the Wolverines make half of those, this game is easily won.
• As much as it was a horrible performance by the team at large in shooting the ball, DeShawn Sims probably had the worst performance in comparison to expectations. He's been beyond solid all year long, and Michigan needed him today, but he couldn't come through. Fortunately, he still managed to put in some solid work on the glass.
• That said, somebody, anybody other than DeShawn Sims has to be able to put the ball in the hoop.
• A few steps forward over the year for Darius Morris, but this was a step back. 3 assists, 2 turnovers, 1-7 shooting. However, he was relied on to shoot much more than usual this game, and once he can get a consistent stroke and form, he should be a real weapon.
• For all those who were outraged at Stu Douglass for not going after an offensive rebound against Penn State, you got what was coming to you last night. He went after a loose ball, and it led to an easy Illinois dunk on the fast break.
• Is it next year yet?

Photo Gallery

Up Next

The Wolverines head to Value City Arena to take on Ohio State on Saturday at noon. Though Michigan beat the Buckeyes at home on January 3rd, the bad guys were without Evan Turner, who is among the front runners for National Player of the Year. This should be an ugly contest for the Wolverines.

Up Next

The Wolverines head to Value City Arena to take on Ohio State on Saturday at noon. Though Michigan beat the Buckeyes at home on January 3rd, the bad guys were without Evan Turner, who is among the front runners for National Player of the Year. This should be an ugly contest for the Wolverines.

[Editor's note: oh right, this is going on today too.]

The Essentials

*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.

Michigan

Well, they're playing for pride now. And maybe an NIT bid. This Michigan team's larger goals are out of reach, so they'll have to search within to get the necessary motivation to pull off any wins for the rest of the year, much less one against a team that still playing for its tournament life.

After a long layoff before a game in which they were facing an opponent they've already seen this year, they'll now have just a couple days to prepare for Illinois in the teams' only meeting of the season. Considering Michigan has tended to play better on long rest, and against familiar opponents, this doesn't bode well.

That said, high-level athletes have a way of responding with surprise performances when they are questioned or left for dead. Does this Michigan team have it in them? Role players and superstars alike will have to step up to salvage some pride and earn in NIT bid.

Illinois

The Fighting Illini are 17-10 on the year, with a 9-5 Big Ten mark. Though they've dropped their last two, to Purdue and Ohio State, their previous game was a road victory over Wisconsin in the Kohl Center. If Illinois can finish the year with a strong run, they still have a good chance at the NCAA tournament. However, Michigan is their only remaining game against a team that is likely to miss the tournament, so the pressure is on tonight.

6-3 guard Demitri McCamey and 7-footer Mike Tisdale are key players for Illinois. They're an inside-outside combo, both among the team's leaders in effective field goal percentage. McCamey also excels at driving the lane and drawing fouls or dishing for assists. 6-9 forward Mike Davis is the team's leading rebounder, and plays the second-most minutes on the squad.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

This looks like a tough matchup for the Wolverines, who have slid lately after showing steady improvement over the first month of 2010. The only places Michigan has the advantage are not turning it over to the Illini and not sending them to the free throw line. Surprisingly, despite all of Illinois's advantages in the margins, they are only slightly better in overall efficiency numbers.

Vegas actually favors Michigan, which is free money for Illini bettors, if you ask me. Ken Pomeroy also thinks Illinois will fall to Michigan, though by only 1 point. Following this Michigan team all year long, it seems like the experts think MIchigan is due for a bounce-back. Unfortunately, I don't see it, and think Illinois will win by something like 65-57. Prove me wrong, boys.

Penn State 55 Michigan 51, MIchigan 13-13 (6-8 Big Ten)

At least I don't have to keep thinking about ludicrous scenarios for Michigan to make the NCAA tournament. Every time I start to think this team might be able to put together a nice run, they seem to be just waiting for the right time to punch me in the gut. I've grown numb now: walking out of Crisler the losses don't hurt anymore, and I feel like a zombie just going through the motions.

This was a battle of two mediocre teams, and though the temptation is to say "there's no reason Michigan should have lost," that's not true. There's a rather legitimate reason Michigan lost: because they aren't a good basketball team. When the shots are falling, they can win a game here and there, but that's a pretty rare occasion this season.

The defense went through some rough patches, but on the whole, I didn't think there was anything that lost Michigan the game on that end of the floor. When the opponent goes the final 10 minutes of the game scoring only 4 points, it's not defense that's the problem. No, I'm pretty sure it's the 1/12 three-point shooting in the second half, with no other way to create enough offense for the win.

The year of infinite pain in Ann Arbor rolls on.

Photos

Postgame Quotes

"Those guys are exceptional, and they played really well today." DeShawn Sims, giving the Nittany Lions their due credit for the win.

"We're all disappointed, but, still fight like we've been doing. But, very disappointing loss." Manny Harris, on the emotional letdown from the game.

"There's no time to feel sorry for ourselves. We've got Illinois at home on Tuesday and we can't let this happen again." Laval Lucas-Perry, on moving on from this loss.

"I'm just trying to learn more and more, because even though I'm a freshman, it's time for me to step up on the defensive end and stop their guards." Darius Morris, on his defensive improvement over the season, particularly his good defense of Talor Battle.

Up Next

Michigan welcomes the Fighting Illini of Illinois into Crisler Arena on Tuesday at 7. With the way these two teams have been playing of late, Bruce Weber's squad should be a heavy, heavy favorite.

The Essentials

*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.

When Last We Met

Michigan was simply horrible to start the game, missing the first 14 three-pointers they took. The local dining establishment where I was watching the game decided to turn it off for several hours of BCS Championship pregame, and by the time I needled them into turning it back on, Michigan was... playing well? Penn State had a 19 point lead early in the second half, but the Wolverines didn't give up. Laval Lucas-Perry and Zack Novak drilled some clutch 3-balls, and Michigan scored 48 second-half points, tripling(!) their output from the first half.

DeShawn Sims scored 25 points on 17 shots for Michigan (and was subsequently named conference Player of the Week), though Manny Harris had an off game, scoring just 13 points and collecting 3 rebounds in 39 minutes. On the other side, the Wolverines were able to keep Talor Battle in check, holding him to 9 points. Chris Babb was the only Nittany Lion in double figures, putting up 14 points.

Since Last We Met

The loss dropped PSU to 0-3 in the conference, and if you had asked anyone if they thought it would be another 10 conference games before they'd finally win one, they probably would have laughed in your face. However, they managed to lose to both Iowa and Indiana (at home, no less!), and sat at 0-12 in the Big Ten until they effectively ended the tournament dreams of Northwestern in Evanston on Wednesday night.

Michigan, on the other hand, wasn't able to solve Northwestern at home or on the road, and has gone 5-6 since beating Penn State. They've made steady improvements with a couple shocking leaps backwards over the course of the season, and are just another middling Big Ten squad.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

The numbers are slightly more favorable to Michigan than they were the first time around, but they're still close enough that the Wolverines don't look like an overwhelming favorite by any stretch. Talor Battle is still the star for PSU, though the Nittany Lions' only win came when he stayed in the background and let his teammates do most of the work.

For the first time in a while (that I can remember), Michigan should have the slight advantage in their ability to shoot the ball. If Laval Lucas-Perry and Stu Douglass can continue the hot streak that started against Iowa, it could be a good day for the Wolverines. Michigan should be able to hang onto the ball, and they'll look to take it away from Penn State to turn defense into offense.

Penn State has finally shown they're capable of winning a Big Ten game, and doing so on the road. If Michigan tries to sleepwalk through this game, there's a good chance of allowing the upset. However, if the Wolverines get back to the disciplined defense they've played at times this year, they should be able to hold off Penn State. I still like John Beilein's ability to gameplan against an opponent he's already seen this year, especially on long rest.

Dylan of UMHoops raised an interesting point on Twitter Wednesday morning:

In Beilein's best season at WVU they played themselves into the tourney going 7-3 to close reg season then made BE final. Just sayin'...

The insinuation, of course, is that it may be possible for this Michigan team to make a similar run to sneak into the NCAA tournament themselves. Although Dylan himself isn't exactly sold on that idea, let's look at what this Michigan team has in common with those Mountaineers.

West Virginia 2005

The Mountaineers, led by Mike Gansey, Tyrone Sally, and Kevin Pittsnogle (pictured at right), finished the regular season with an 18-9 record, 8-8 in the Big East. They won 7 of their final 10 regular season games. In the Big East Tournament, they were the #8 seed, and ran through #9 Providence, #1 Boston College, and #4 Villanova before falling to Syracuse in the tournament final. They were 21-10 going into the NCAA tournament. They were awarded a #7 seed in the West Regional, and managed to make the Elite Eight, where they lost to Louisville in overtime.

Michigan 2010

For the sake of prediction we'll go with Ken Pomeroy's projections over the final five games. Kenpom gives Michigan wins over Penn State, Illinois, and Minnesota at home and road losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.

In that scenario, the Wolverines would finish the regular season with a 16-14 record, 9-9 in the Big Ten. They would have won 6 of their final 10 regular season games. They would be about the #7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, facing off against #10 Iowa (the same 7/10 matchup as in last season's Big Ten Tournament). To reach the tournament final, they would have to beat Iowa, then the #2 seed (still up in the air at this point, but Ohio State if the season ended today), and the #3 or #6 seed (Purdue or Northwestern, respectively, if the season ended today). Falling in the tournament final, they would finish with a 19-15 record going into tournament selection.

Similarities/Differences

Though both teams would end their season on a run of sorts, the "Last 10" metric for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is not available this season. Michigan's theoretical 6-4 mark over the final 10 regular season games (plus a 3-1 record in the Big Ten Tournament) probably wouldn't be the most impressive mark, anyway.

A key difference between the teams is their respective overall records. Though both would finish with a .500 mark in conference, the Mountaineers only dropped one game to a non-big East team, though it was a terrible Marshall squad. Michigan, on the other hand, struggled mightily outside the league. They've lost to Marquette, Alabama, Boston College, Utah, and Kansas.

jamiemac of Just Cover and the MGoPodcast points out that a strong close to the regular season would give the Wolverines a similar resume to the 2000 Wisconsin Badgers, who finished the season 16-12, but nabbed an 8-seed based on a strong run to end the year, and ended up making the Final Four. Of course, this Michigan team is almost certainly not Final Four material, but getting into the tournament is possible.

Can it be Done?

Michigan would need to finish the year much stronger than West Virginia did if they want to get into the NCAA Tournament. Like I've been saying for quite some time, the NIT is a much more realistic goal at this point. However, it's actually not impossible for the Wolverines to make the Big Dance. It's just a tall, tall task, especially for a team that has struggled with consistency through the entire year and doesn't seem to be making a final push. Edging by Iowa in overtime does not inspire confidence.

The most obvious way for Michigan to make the NCAA tournament is to win the Big Ten Tournament and get the conference's automatic bid. That requires a hot streak, of course, but the rest of the regular season won't play as big a role (of course, the better the record in the regular season, the higher the seed in the B10 Tourney, and the easier the path to a tournament championship). 3-point shooting teams always have a chance in single-elimination format, as long as they get hot from the field.

Without crunching any numbers, Michigan's only other likely chance to get into the NCAA tournament is to lose only one of the road games left (though a road win over Ohio State or Michigan State is highly unlikely), and make it to the tournament final. That would give them a winning record in the conference, with a 17-13 regular season mark. Adding the 3 victories from the Big Ten tournament would give a 20-14 record, with a number of quality wins at the end of the year. Sweeping the regular season games and making it to the tournament final would make the Wolverines a near-lock for the tournament, at 21-13 and an 11-7 mark in the Big Ten.

HOWEVA, all of these scenarios are pipe dreams. The realistic best-case scenario for the Wolverines is to go 3-2 to close out the regular season, take a victory or two in the Big Ten Tournament, and finish their year with a strong run in the NIT.

Michigan 80 Iowa 78 (OT), MIchigan 13-12 (6-7 Big Ten)

It wasn't pretty, but at this point in the season it would be improper to take any win for granted, right? If Michigan was in position to grab an NCAA tournament bid, this would have been a scary game. However, the Wolverines are closer to missing the NIT than they are to making the Big Dance. Let's just enjoy the win.

After steady improvement throughout the month of January and the beginning of February, it's clear that Michigan's defense is not at a level that will win basketball games when the offense isn't working right. Like Wisconsin and Northwestern before them, the Hawkeyes shot the ball well, finishing with a 55 eFG%. Had Michigan not matched that number in one of their better shooting performances of the year, this game could have gotten ugly. Michigan opened up a 10-point lead late in the first half, but let Iowa claw back to tie it up by the break. Play was much more back-and-forth in the second half, but Iowa led by five with only 22 seconds to go, before Michigan managed to force overtime.

There were some bright points. On top of the newly-found shooting competence, this team actually showed some heart for the first time in quite a while, gutting out a win when it looked like all hope was lost. If they'd been able to do that a couple more times this year, maybe we'd be talking NCAA Tournament fringe instead of NIT fringe. A number of players stepped up that one probably wouldn't expect (primarily Laval Lucas-Perry), and seven whole players got double-digit minutes!

BULLETS

• Rough game for Manny Harris despite decent numbers on the scoresheet. He had six turnovers, and nearly fouled out. A couple of his fouls were borderline calls, but they were also plays he should be smart enough not to make. He shot just 7 of 17.
• DeShawn Sims, as we've come to expect, was this team's leader. He struggled making some layups through contact, otherwise he would have had a stellar outing. Very interesting for Beilein to (finally, in the eyes of some) play him with Gibson.
• Darius Morris was super-quiet. Two assists, three missed shots, and two personal fouls isn't a statline that shows off how much he's improved over the course of the year. He still needs lots of work on his shot, but this game wasn't as big a step backwards as it might seem.
• If we're criticizing LLP for being invisible most of the time, let's also give him props when he shows up to play. His 3/3 shooting from behind the arc to start the game got the offense moving, and though he didn't do a whole lot after that, he was the catalyst for Michigan's big run.
• Man, the Big Ten Network presentation was awful. We constantly got shots of the lights or the back of someone's head instead of, you know, the game. We got about 10 seconds of ridiculously loud music, presumably off someone's iPod in the production truck (I kid). The commentary was often too quiet to hear, but it doesn't matter, because the announcers had no interest in talking about the game. The Big Ten Network doesn't have a great reputation to begin with, and it's painfully clear that they have no interest in correcting that.
• [Editor's note: anyone else notice Jim Jackson's somewhat disturbing morph into Hubie Brown? I heard "blank is the best blank we have have in our league" a dozen times.
• It's nice to see Stu Douglass and Zack Novak find something of a shooting stroke. Both only shot 3-pointers, but if they can continue shooting well, Michigan might be able to surprise a team at the end of the year, and get some confidence for the future.
• Michigan still has a chance to go on a bit of a run here, with Ken Pomeroy favoring them to win three of the last five, including the next two. Dylan is hinting that Michigan is capable of sneaking into the tournament, but I wouldn't get so far ahead of ourselves quite yet.
• Getting back to the officiating for a second, I think Oops Pow Surprise said it best:
  

  We're not stupid enough to think that Hightower and Valentine were somehow actively conspiring against Iowa; not only is Michigan plainly unworthy of a conspiratorial effort (see: not a tournament team), but that theory would require the supposition that the two men are actually capable of calling a good game and just choose not to. That's a fantasy.

  Further, it's not the case that all the calls went against Iowa for the balance of the game. There were several calls that seemed to be a whistle just blown at random, and a good amount of them were in Iowa's favor. This is what happens in a Hightower/Valentine game.

  Bad officiating is frustrating for all, even when it's not heavily slanted in one direction or another

• [Editor's note: UMHoops pointed this out about the refereeing: DeShawn Sims says he complained to the refs about his game-tying three and the ref said he would have called a foul if he had missed, which just goes to show that every conspiracy theory you've ever had about basketball refereeing is true. Bastards.]

• Did Anthony Wright get in a bar fight or something? Beilein:

  “The facts are, over the last day, I believe that Anthony had done nothing wrong to what the facts that were presented to me,” Beilein said. “If the facts change, then I will make appropriate action. But the facts are the facts that we discussed.”

  People, don't punch Ant Wright please.

Up Next

The Nittany Lions of Penn State travel to Crisler Arena Saturday, looking to win their first game in the Big Ten this year(!). This is a good opportunity for the Wolverines to get a win against a pretty bad team, and it's also a football junior day (about which more in Wednesday Recruitin'), so let's get this team some fan support to close out the year.