also duty-free guys falling over and grabbing their shins
Press Release - Dunn leaving was no surprise after his leave of absence this year, I think Mahoney's departure is less expected.
ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- University of Michigan coach John Beilein announced today (Friday, April 9) that Jeff Meyer will move permanently into an assistant coaching role following his elevation midway through the 2009-10 season. In addition, Beilein announced associate head coach Jerry Dunn and assistant coach John Mahoney will be leaving the program to pursue other collegiate coaching opportunities.
"I have a clear vision of where I want this program to go and how I would like to complete my coaching staff," said Beilein regarding the vacancy. "I see this change as a unique opportunity to add another highly qualified individual to our Michigan Basketball program."
"I have decided to continue Jeff Meyer’s role as an assistant coach," added Beilein. "He did an incredible job filling in this season and will be a tremendous asset in our recruiting efforts in the footprint of the Big Ten. Jeff is a great teacher of the game and I look forward to his presence on and off the floor next season. "
Meyer joined the Wolverine Basketball staff as an administrative assistant two seasons ago and was elevated to assistant coach midway through the 2009-10 season following a leave of absence by Jerry Dunn for personal family reasons.
Meyer has over 31 years experience in collegiate basketball, with 16 of those seasons coming as a head coach at Liberty (1981-97). He had assistant coaching stops at Indiana (2006-08), Missouri (2004-06), Butler (2001-04), South Florida (1980-81) and Purdue (1978-80), as well as an associate head coaching position at Winthrop (1998-2001). Throughout his coaching career, Meyer has been a part of nine NCAA Tournament and four NIT postseason appearances.
"Jerry Dunn has been a successful head coach in the past and would like to do so again," said Beilein. "He is now going to put all of his efforts toward that goal. I have worked with Jerry for seven years and appreciate his many contributions to the success of our programs. He will continue to work with me on several administrative tasks until the end of the April."
"I want to be a head coach again and the only way to be fair to the program is to pursue these opportunities with my entire focus," said Dunn. "I have enjoyed spending the past seven years with John. We have had a lot of success together and I have learned a great deal during that time. Michigan has made great strides getting back to the tournament but it is time to move on and pursue my goal. My time with the Michigan Family has been enjoyable and I wish our program and the university nothing but success."
Dunn worked alongside Beilein the last seven years as his associate head coach, both at Michigan and West Virginia. Dunn is known most for his work in the Big Ten, spending 20 years at Penn State, including eight as head coach of the Nittany Lions. Four of Dunn's PSU teams reached postseason play, twice at the NCAA Tournament (1996 and 2001) and on two occasions in the NIT (1998 and 2000). He led the Nittany Lions to the championship game of the 1998 NIT and guided the program to a Sweet 16 appearance in 2001.
"John Mahoney is one of the hardest working coaches in the business," said Beilein. "He is a tireless recruiter and I am confident he will prove to be a valuable asset wherever he coaches next year. We wish him nothing but the best in the future and thank him for his loyalty and commitment to our program."
"I wish to thank Coach Beilein, the players and everyone at the University of Michigan for giving me the opportunity over the last three years to continue to not only grow as a person, but as a coach," said Mahoney. "It's never easy to leave a program that you have worked so hard to build, but I am looking forward to this next progression of my career and my pursuit of becoming a collegiate head coach."
Mahoney worked the past five seasons with Beilein at Michigan and West Virginia. He was an assistant coach the last three years at U-M and was West Virginia’s Director of Basketball Operations for two seasons before coming to Ann Arbor. In his 22-year coaching career, Mahoney had assistant coaching stops at Duquesne (2001-05) and Robert Morris (1998-2001). Before entering the Division I coaching ranks, Mahoney was the head coach at Mount Aloysius College (1994-98) and began his coaching career as the boys' head coach at Our Lady of Sacred Heart High School (1986-94).
Coming into the year, expectations were high for the Michigan basketball team. They were fresh off their first NCAA Tournament appearance in a decade, returning two of the best players in the Big Ten. They had to replace only walk-ons and a Canadian.
So that worked out great, right? Most Michigan fans probably would have told you that #15 in the nation was too high, but nobody would have had the audacity to tell you that the Wolverines would remain mostly healthy and still limp to a sub-.500 record. In its 18 defeats, the Michigan basketball team had found just about every way to lose. There was the time they were run off the court by an inferior opponent, the time they stayed in the game against a much better opponent despite missing one of their best players, the time they almost upset their instate rival but fell just short, and all variety of just not being the better team. Also times where Evan Turner hit a 37-foot prayer at the buzzer.
There have to be reasons for these things happening, and no, Idiot Message Board Guy, that reason is not "JOHN BEILEIN SHOULD BE FIRED OMG."
As with most John Beilein teams, Michigan was expected to bomb away from deep this year, and bomb away they did. Unfortunately, nobody seemed to tell them that they were supposed to, like, make some of those shots. For the season, they shot 41.6% from the field, and 29.9% from long range. This constituted 43.2% of their shots. Put it all together, and it results in a crappy 48.1 eFG% on the season. That's good for about 230th in the country. Last year, they shot 50.3 eFG%, and finished 117th.
For individual changes in shooting, I think we're going to need a...
Chart. Players are arranged by the number of shots they took in 2009-10.
|Player||2008-09 eFG%||2009-10 eFG%|
Every returning player except Manny Harris and Zack Gibson saw a reduction in their shooting percentage from last year to this. I didn't check how many of those dropoffs are statistically significant (I imagine not very many of them, if any).
Also, for all the talk about how Michigan "only lost two walkons," everyone seems to have forgotten (and I'm guilty of this as well) that Kelvin Grady was an important part of last year's team, and a true point guard with some experience could have helped Michigan a ton this year. While some of the variation is probably luck, a team-wide regression points to poorer overall shot quality, and that starts with the gutted point guard position. This is true both with and without the ball: last year Lee, Grady, and Merritt were 1-2-3 in three point shooting. The three headed point guard took more threes than anyone on the team—172—and made more of them. This year the point guard was no-shoot Darius Morris and two guys, Laval Lucas-Perry and Stu Douglass, who struggled massively with at the spot.
OK, so I take it back: injuries actually might have played a significant role in the season. Michigan was expecting to have at least one more big man in Ben Cronin, and maybe another in Jordan Morgan. Cronin, a true seven-footer, saw his season (and probably career) come to an end in November thanks to a recurring hip problem that surgery couldn't repair. Morgan is just a freshman, and probably wouldn't have played a significant role on the team even if he hadn't had a shoulder injury that forced surgery and a redshirt.
With Zack Gibson and Deshawn Sims Michigan's only players above 6-8 (and in Sims's case, he's only listed as so), this team was never going to be able to play big. Sure, they could have used Gibson and Sims together a bit more, but that also carried a risk of one of them getting in foul trouble and not having either of them when the other needed a rest.
Zack Novak is not a true power forward. Anybody who has watched the game of basketball and notice that he doesn't even graze 6-5 can tell you that. But Michigan didn't have a ton of (read: any) other options. Criticizing Novak for not being tall enough seems a little unfair, since I think that's mostly out of his control.
So, for all the coach-fans that say Michigan should have gone big or pounded inside more or whatever, they really couldn't do it much more than they did. They went to Sims early in nearly every game, but the opponents would figure it out in short order, and the option would disappear when shooters didn't emerge as a serious threat. At 6'8"-ish, Sims always struggled against guys pushing seven feet tall and no amount of development can fix that when you're the biggest guy on the court.
It's natural to look at the coaching of this team as a potential weakness. For all the limitations of this roster, it was mostly Beilein-assembled, particularly the guys who we were supposed to be relying on as shooters and either couldn't find the basket (Stu Douglass, Zack Novak) or the court (Matt Vogrich).
On a micro scale, there were individual strategic decisions in games that probably didn't make a lot of sense, either. Something with some guy named Turner comes to mind, I don't really remember. But for every one of those, there was probably a positive moment that either went unnoticed or, in one painful instance, un-capitalized upon.
At this point, it's far too early to even consider ditching the only coach who's taken Michigan to the tournament in the past decade. He has a track record of success at every level, and he hasn't done anything yet to show he's not capable of accomplishing that in Ann Arbor. For those who say "well he only lost walk-ons from a tournament team and went under .500," I reply: dude, you do realize that you just said this guy took a team to the tournament as he was forced to play walk-ons extensive time, right? As much as this team may have underachieved, it only looks worse because last year's squad overachieved so much by comparison.
There have been a lot of accusations over the past couple days that Michigan "underachieved" this year, which duh. However, those who say "Michigan only lost walk-ons off a tournament team should be in the tournament, bro" need to keep in mind that, as much as this team underachieved, last year's squad most definitely overachieved.
Luck most certainly played a role (F you, Evan Turner), and fortunately, Ken Pomeroy has a "Luck Rating" which measures a team's performance against expectation based on Pomeroy's rankings. Last year, Michigan was +0.004 in luck, 131st in the nation. This year? -0.086, 330th out of 347 D-1 teams. This team was horrifically unlucky this year, and slightly lucky last year, making the quality difference between the teams look much more severe than it actually was. In the end, Michigan finished 50th last year and 60th this year. The slide was real but not as severe as the numbers suggested.
For the record, this year's painfully inconsistent team was 238th in "Consistency" to Pomeroy. Last year's was actually worse at 266th.
Can It Get Better Next Year?
As the perpetually optimistic Michigan fan, I am inclined to say yes without even really thinking about the question. [Ed.: An exercise for the reader: if Tim is still perpetually optimistic, what short of a nuclear explosion centered on Michigan Stadium could cause him to lose this trait?] This team has to improve, right?
That partially hinges on the professional whims of Manny Harris. The eyeball test says he needs a senior, but he may be ready to move on. For what it's worth, Sam Webb suggests it's 65-35 Manny stays. The recruitment of Trey Zeigler is another huge factor, as he would be an instant-impact type.
The roster composition should be different next year either way, as Jordan Morgan and Blake McLimans will add some size. For the first time in Beilein's career at Michigan he'll have a true 4 for his system in the form of incoming freshman Evan "Metrics" Smotrycz. They'll have to be ready to contribute, since both of Michigan's post players are moving on after this season.
Michigan's shooting should (hopefully) improve after a decided downturn this year, and the roster should be much more experienced as long as Manny returns. Assuming "luck" is essentially random, the pendulum should swing back the other way (though that's not guaranteed - look at the football teams' turnover margin this fall), and hopefully break even at worst. If Manny comes back, it should be season in which Michigan contends for the NCAA tourney. Life on the bubble isn't satisfying four years into Beilein's tenure, but that's life.
The 2009-10 athletic season is on its way out, and bright times are ahead.
Are we going to recap it? No. I'm pretty sure Tim is methodically hammering nails into anything small and fluffy he can find. We're going to dig out something that hasn't been seen around these parts in a year or two. It is the Dead To Me board. It has two new additions, the second of which is relevant.
Well played, 2009-10. Well played.
Here's a kitten:
We'll see you next week. Jesus.
Michigan 59 Iowa 52, 2nd Round Big Ten Tournament
Michigan's game-to-game inconsistency has been the story of the season, and we got it gleefully wrapped into one package against Iowa. Of course, to truly represent the 2009-10 Michigan Wolverines it would have ended with a loss, so we're comin' out ahead already, baby. Michigan completely dominated at times, led by DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris. At other times, Cully Payne and Aaron Fuller made Wolverine fans tear their hair out by leading the Hawkeyes on runs to stay in the game. Still, past the first couple minutes, the outcome was rarely in doubt.
Michigan's ability to force turnovers was a big key, though they did get sloppy and commit some turnovers themselves. Giving it up eight times doesn't seem like too much, but considering they didn't turn it over once in the first 14 minutes, and it's clear play got a little sloppy.
Though nobody other than Manny (22 points) and Peedi (14 points) scored in double figures, Michigan got a little scoring from a few other guys, though the shooting woes of Zack Novak and Stu Douglass continued. Douglass and LLP showed a willingness to drive the ball a little bit, and if that had been available all year, this team might have been a little less disappointing. Speaking of disappointing, Darius Morris was practically invisible, and still has work to do before he can put together impressive performances every game.
And with the win, it's on to...
|WHAT||Michigan v. Ohio State|
March 12th 2010
|THE LINE||Michigan +9*|
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
When Last We Met
Ohio State controlled the game by owning the second half in Value City Arena just a week ago, eventually emerging with a 66-55 victory. No recap since I didn't get a chance to catch the game, but all five of Michigan's starters scored in double figures, and William Buford paced the Buckeyes with 24 points. Michigan won the turnover battle, like usual, but the shooting went cold in the second half, and Ohio State managed to capitalize for the victory.
Previously, Michigan upset the Buckeyes in Crisler Arena to kick off the New Year. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims scored 52 of Michigan's 73 points. The game also brought us the beginning of VOGRIT, as the freshman led the team in offensive rebounding and made a big block in the paint. I'm skirting around a key fact here though, which is that Evan Turner - winner of several player of the year awards - missed the game with broken vertebrae (spinal injuries what what). With Turner in the lineup, Ohio State has been dominant, sharing the Big Ten crown with Purdue and Michigan State.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy. Also, you'd better hide the women and children before they catch a glimpse of this chart.
|Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks|
|Category||Michigan Rank||Ohio State Rank||Advantage|
|Mich eFG% v. OSU Def eFG%||247||88||OO|
|Mich Def eFG% v. OSU eFG%||211||4||OOO|
|Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO%||12||78||M|
|Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO%||34||31||-|
|Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb%||290||27||OOO|
|Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb%||270||273||-|
|Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR||330||11||OOOO|
|Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR||7||205||MM|
|Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD||107||19||O|
|Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO||46||12||O|
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
So, uh, thanks for the entertaining season, guys. Ohio State is clearly the superior team in nearly every category, and Michigan is going to be hard-pressed to find a way to beat the Buckeyes when they have Evan Turner in the lineup.
Michigan's defensive improvement over the course of the season is something of a silver lining, but this Ohio State team is on track for a 1- or 2-seed in the NCAA tournament for a reason. Michigan also has a bit more to play for, as Ohio State's season will carry into the NCAA tournament regardless of the outcome, and the Wolverines are in a win-or-go-home situation for the rest of the year.
Kenpom likes Ohio State by 8, and Vegas makes the Buckeyes 9-point favorites. I think Michigan's sense of urgency might keep the game a little bit closer than the experts think. Still it's hard to pick against a squad that's rolling like the Buckeyes are.