chance of bowl: 13.6%
The Free Press confirms a part of what was here yesterday:
Louisiana State coach Les Miles appears to be a Michigan coaching candidate again.
Miles had a phone conversation Friday morning with Michigan athletic director Bill Martin and school president Mary Sue Coleman, according to several people with knowledge of the call.
(Hey, look... anonymous sourcing.) This was inevitable given how widespread the information was, but the heat will be on Miles once again after his pre-SECCG performance. Read what you will into this: Michigan had no comment, Miles' agent had no comment, LSU's AD...
"He and Bo Schembechler were real close," Bertman said. "If Bo Schembechler were alive, I doubt he could have got him to go to Michigan. It's hard for people who don't live in the South to understand."
In another article:
"They're frustrated because they didn't get what they want," Bertman said. "You can't get Les Miles -- the guy signed his contract. It's over."
Said contract, of course, doesn't increase Miles' buyout one cent.
Bertman's turning into sort of an ass about these things. On Michigan's ability to contact Miles:
University of Michigan athletic director Bill Martin received permission once from his Louisiana State counterpart Skip Bertman to talk to LSU coach Les Miles and didn't use it.
If Martin has any interest in talking to Miles now, the athletic director will have to ask again.
"I'd be under the assumption that the permission to speak to Les Miles has expired," Bertman said Monday. "We've signed the contract."
Of course, three years ago when it was LSU looking for a coach, things were different:
Oklahoma State Head Coach Les Miles has met with an LSU representative, despite Oklahoma State denying LSU permission to interview Miles. Since Miles contract does not require the university's OK for him to interview, LSU is proceeding with Miles consent. Miles has a one year buyout clause in his contract, or approximately $1-1.5 million. The fact that Miles is (apparently) moving forward with LSU despite OSU denying permission signals that he is very interested in hearing what the Tigers have to say.
They're like Klingons or Commies: all they understand is strength. To negotiate is weakness. Take everything from them, and take it whenever. No quarter.
I mean, seriously: what's sure to be an irritating round of media people declaring they're shocked, shocked that Miles would even think about possibly considering the Michigan job has already begun. Sports radio was ripping him this morning. The correct response to this: who cares? There are no ethics in these situations, as southern schools amply demonstrate every time someone gets fired, LSU foremost among them. If the Tigers are looking for a new coach, all these delicate ethics will get thrown out the window. New coach requires virgin sacrifices? Someone call up the evangelicals!
Grist. So... will Miles take it and how serious is the offer? I don't know. Many people complained about the "lowball" 2.5 million figure, but other reports have the figure closer to three million when incentives are factored in. Given that Coleman was involved in Ferentz's acquisition and extremely large you-stay-here-now contract, I think her involvement is a major positive and believe Michigan will/has offered an extremely competitive salary.
Again, it's hard to parse what's real and what's not: I've heard Miles has turned the offer down and it's really truly over; I've heard he's probably going to take it if he can work out the MNC game stuff. Who knows? And why did West Virginia have to eat it against the 'Stache? Damn you, Pat White's dislocated thummmmmmmb!
One thing worth repeating: for whatever reason, Brian Kelly is never going to get even a cursory look.
|Head Coach, Ball State|
|DL coach @ Michigan||1995-2002|
|DL coach @ Oregon State||1989-1994|
|LB Coach @ Toledo||1987-1988|
|DL Coach @ WMU||1984-1986|
|Four-year letterman and captain at Ball State as a defensive lineman.|
For those of you who are not Jason Whitlock and thus know nothing about the Ball State football program, like all red-blooded Americans should, Brady Hoke is its head coach. In five years on the job, Hoke is 22-36 and has one winning season, this year's 7-5 campaign that will end when Rutgers houses the Cardinals in the International Bowl. Hoke's main accomplishments to date are
- being the first coach to torch Johnny Sears and one of dozens to hang close with Michigan despite a massive talent deficit,
- nearly beating the worst Nebraska team ever, and
- being good friends with Lloyd Carr.
There isn't a power program in the country that could make Brady Hoke's candidacy for their head coaching job seem like anything other than a PR move designed to help a friend of the program... but remember the boats. The goddamn boats. Anything is possible.
Ball State's Stassen numbers for the decade preceding Hoke's arrival:
|68||San Diego State||0.45690|
Hoke's winning percentage? 38%. And he did not take over a program in disarray. Ball State had disastrous years in 1998 and 1999, going a combined 1-21, but recovered from the tailspin to go 16-18 the three years before Hoke arrived.
Hoke promptly put up records of 4-8, 2-9, 4-7, and 5-7 before his "breakthrough" 2007, when he finally got the program back to the level it was at when he arrived. Historically, Ball State has been one of the better programs in the MAC, their overall record above distorted by those two bombs; other than that the last time they won fewer than five games was 1987. The evidence suggests Hoke is outclassed in the MAC.
So let's make him Michigan's head coach!
Xs and Os Proficiency: Hoke has never been a coordinator on any level.
Recruiting: A N/A. It's Ball State.
Potential Catches: Potential "catches"? The whole damn thing is one big catch! Even in the realm of people who Michigan would approach after getting turned down by everyone -- EVERYONE -- there are vastly preferable candidates: Ron English. Mike Trgovic. Glen Mason. Jon Chait. Me. The Golden Retriever from "Air Bud: Golden Receiver." Mussolini, who is dead. Dick Vitale. Sigourney Weaver. Richard Nixon's penis. Sigourney Weaver's penis. All of these people and organs don't have a track record that suggests they are a below average MAC coach. It is in this way they are superior to Brady Hoke.
Relative Compensation: Hoke makes 170k per year, the third lowest in D-I. We'll probably offer him $120k.
Would He Take The Job? Yes.
Overall Attractiveness: Awful. Awful, awful, awful. The worst possible candidate. The mere idea this guy -- who's never even been a coordinator anywhere and has his MAC team performing at a level well below the program's historical baseline -- could get the job is infuriating. Only at Michigan could this happen, and if it does I guarantee you that Bo is going to haunt the mofo that signs the contract.
Better that Debord? No. Absolutely not better than Debord. The functional equivalent of Debord and a guy who would either keep Captain Failure or bring in Stan Parrish. If Hoke is hired there will be a riot, and with good reason.
Scott Wolf in the LA Daily News:
In the mix: Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian's name surfaced as a possible candidate for the Michigan job, but he is not currently considered an upper-tier candidate. California coach Jeff Tedford is believed to be a serious candidate, according to sources.
Yes, 6-6 and all that, but Pac-10 Indiana, people. Pac-10 Indiana.
I've long since discarded the idea any information can be considered solid in the ever-shifting sands of a coaching search, especially one as schizophrenic as Michigan's, but... yeah: several previously reliable people have told me that Mary Sue Coleman has gotten directly involved with the search and there exists a solid offer out to one Les Miles.
I was debating whether or not to mention this -- the fear of things falling apart and Miles talking about his damn strong team while talking about misinformation on MGoBlog, etc. -- but when I guested on EDSBS live to talk about the coaching search, Orson was not only unsurprised that Miles was still a possibility but named the exact hypothetical salary hypothetically offered on hypothetical Friday, $2.5 million dollars. So it's not exactly top secret anymore. Yesterday morning Sam Webb and Michael Taylor were discussing it on WTKA, too. A secrets go, this one is pretty open.
The set of things that seem most likely to be true at this time:
- Miles has an offer for $2.5 million a year.
- He's got a few days to consider it.
- The main hangups appear to be assistant pay and the role of Carr in his program.
- Martin has been at least partially usurped.
Thing which seems completely implausible but given the sailboat thing cannot be ruled out -- nothing can be ruled out anymore:
- The anti-Miles faction in the AD is pushing Brady Hoke heavily.
Thing as of yet undetermined:
- If Miles will accept the offer.
So there you go.
Angelique Chengelis throws out a surprising name:
Apparently Michigan has branched out and contacted at least one NFL coach about its vacant coaching job.
New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton, 43, did hear from individuals connected to the Michigan search, according to a source close to Payton.
"They've expressed interest," the source said, referring to U-M. "There was interest in Sean using 'unofficial' intermediaries."
Initial reaction: there's no way. If Michigan can't put together a financial package impressive enough to pry someone out of Rutgers there's zero chance they pick off an NFL coach who still has a job.
HT: Quo Vadimus.
Update: Apparently Michigan didn't contact Payton or, more likely, the agent is lying. Likely moot in any case.
Update II: Payton denies any interest in M. It's dead, Jim.
FOR GOD'S SAKE STAY UNDER THE ROCK!
If you insist on coming out, a recap of events to date:
Meanwhile, Miles was on the Dan Patrick Show this morning; there are unconfirmed reports Miles said "I was loyal to Michigan, but they were not loyal to me." If he said that... I mean, whoah. Unfortunately this might have been misheard; the Free Press has a transcript of portions up but does not include the line.