coaching changes

And they're off. Internet speculation has settled on three candidates: WVU's John Beilein, SIU's Chris Lowery, and Xavier's Sean Miller, with Beilein's buyout and age posing issues for his candidacy. (BTW: the buyout is $2.5 million, not three as reported last year. It declines by 500k each year of his contract. Also, the Martin interview referenced earlier has this quote about Amaker's buyout:

Q: Are you going to pay him the buyout?
Martin: Of course we will. Understand that has been funded every year and that accumulated.

Odd question. It's basically "Are you going to get sued for doing something stupid?" Interesting answer though: the 900k Amaker is owed has been rolled up already and isn't an unexpected expense coming out of the U's coffers. Further evidence that Michigan is ready and willing to pay a competitive salary, as the 900k sitting around was earmarked for the basketball coach either way, be it in the form of a buyout or a raise.)

Of the three mentioned, Lowery is my preference for reasons outlined in this USA Today article:

"They invade your personal space," Virginia Tech coach Seth Greenberg was saying the other day. "I love their attitude. I think it's their mindset."

So this time, the underdogs are bringing their defensive nightsticks, You will find no more intriguing clash of style in the Sweet 16. The unstoppable force will be wearing white, the immovable object maroon. [this passage incorrect, since Kansas has the best D in the country and an average offense, as pointed out by Wonk -ed]

...

"I don't think we sell them on defense. We sell them on winning," Lowery said. "Defense is a part of that."

"Anything time you drive," Virginia Tech's Zabian Dowdell said, "you can expect to be cut off by another defender."

That's the whole idea. Ruin passing angles, interfere with flow, be ready to help, never quit. Not until the shot clock runs out, or a brick clangs off the rim.

"The biggest thing is," Lowery said, "they trust each other."

On its weekly notes, Southern Illinois includes testimonials from past victims. This from Missouri State coach Barry Hinson, on preparing to play the Salukis:

"We run down to the police station and we get all the German Shepherd attack dogs and we just bring them onto the floor, and we rub meat juice all over our arms, and we just get ready to practice."

...

"People say we slow down," Lowery said. "We don't slow down. We just make you catch up, and stay at a pace of intensity on defense throughout the game. At the other end, we're not gong to let you breathe."

(We should bring Barry Hinson along as Designated Guy To Give Awesome Testimonial Quotes if we hire Lowery, no matter the cost.) There are some concerns. SIU does play slow-down: Kenpom has the Salukis 312th in adjusted pace. The accusations that Big Ten basketball is basically the Carlisle Pistons versus the Riley Knicks are not likely to decrease if he's hired.

But good God, y'all:

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency :  104.4 (135)           93.5 ( 18)
Adj Efficiency :  109.2 ( 81)           86.7 ( 12)

Effective FG%  :   52.1 ( 85)           47.7 ( 80)
Turnover Pct.  :   22.3 (229)           24.3 ( 25)
Off. Rebound%  :   31.4 (241)           28.9 ( 12)
Free Throw Rate:   31.9 ( 22)           49.8 (326)

3-Point FG%    :   37.4 ( 61)           34.9 (180)
2-Point FG%    :   49.8 (130)           45.4 ( 61)
Free Throw Pct.:   69.1 (172)           70.6 (248)
Block Pct.     :    8.5 (130)           11.1 ( 64)
Steal Pct.     :   10.7 (235)           10.5 (115)

3PA/FGA        :   36.0 (118)           32.7 (122)
A/FGM          :   54.9 (179)           51.3 ( 62)

Lowery's offense is plagued by turnovers -- ugh -- and awful offensive rebounding. Everything else is at least okay. Now consider this: SIU has one senior and no one playing significant minutes taller than 6'7". More impressive than their tourney run has been their ability to lock down a Sweet 16 seed from the MVC. SIU is a legit team that has an identity without anyone who will even sniff the NBA. He's the guy.

More. Sun-Times article on SIU's efforts to keep Lowery:

He put me and Tony [Young] and me against each other, and I thought he was trying to run us off, make us transfer schools," said Jamaal Tatum, the Salukis' leading scorer. "... He made things difficult for us. But he expects so much out of the players that he will push you. I'm thankful he did because I've become a lot better player."

Southern won consistently before Lowery got there, so it is realistic to think it could win without him. But why take chances?

"He's the total package," Moccia said. "He's 34 years old. He has such a great floor demeanor. He can recruit. He's a great family guy. And he's unbelievably, wildly successful. That's kind of a rare thing. That's why we really want to keep him."

And why a lot of others might want him.

Lowery made approximately 300k this year. If we go after him SIU will probably increase that significantly, but I doubt they can go as high as we can.

Even more Lowery. From a pre-NCAAs PC this year:

REPORTER: Both of you, I know I'm putting you on the spot because your coach is sitting next to you, but what's special about playing for Coach Lowery?

YOUNG: The biggest thing about playing for Coach is he's one of the coaches that understands his players. You've got a lot of peopl
e that push you to do things you don't want to do, he gives us the freedom to go out and play the way we want to play but within his offense and the things he wants us to do. And he really rides us and makes us strive to be the best we can be as far as people, as far as players, really just all around. He doesn't settle for us being second best. He doesn't let us settle for it either.

TATUM: I'll agree with Tony on that. He definitely pushes us. When he came back from Illinois and we got our first workout with him, he put me and Tony against each other and I thought he was trying to make us transfer schools or something the way he came at us, but he was just expecting a lot out of us, he knew it was going to be a big year and he knew that he had some shoes to fill and we had some shoes to fill and that we had to be a good team and we were a great team that year and he came back and he really put it on us and made things difficult for us. That's the thing about him, he expects so much out of all his players that he will push you and I'm thankful for what he's done because I've become a lot better player under him.

"Young" and "Tatum" are two starting guards.

Two notes. Amaker has been all class as the outgoing coach. Reports are he called Legion and encouraged him to stick with his LOI, and he's also sending out notes to various people associated with Michigan. This went out to some alumni association presidents:

All,

I just want to sincerely thank you for the opportunity that I was given to be the basketball coach at this tremendous university. I will always be grateful for it.

I truly loved teaching and coaching at the University of Michigan. I loved representing you, and I wish you all well.

Please continue to support the team and the new coach--they need you and deserve you!

Thank you so much for everything, and GO BLUE!

Best,
Tommy

A similar email went out to the Maize Rage:

Maize Rage,

I just want to thank all of you for all of the support that you've given our basketball program and me during my time at Michigan. You've been phenomenal, and I will always be grateful for your support and enthusiasm for our team.

I truly loved coaching and teaching at Michigan, and I will always be grateful to have had this opportunity. I loved representing you, and I wish you all well.

Please continue to support the team and the new coach--they need you and deserve your support!!

Thank you again for everything you've done for me and Michigan Basketball, and GO BLUE!

Coach Amaker

Yes, this makes me feel a bit heelish for the constant snark, if you're asking.

All fixed now. Deadspin found hilarious video of a Kansas State player eating popcorn on the bench during an NIT game:

Far be it from us to understate the importance of the NIT -- no place is more dangerous than Crisler Arena in mid-March! -- but during the Kansas State-DePaul game the other night, an injured Wildcat sat on the bench eating popcorn.

Yeah, that momentary pang of sympathy is all better now.

Facilitate this. Article in the Freep yesterday from Mark Snyder:

"Usually the perception within the fan base is higher than the reality, like with football fans at Alabama who think they should go 12-0 every year," said Yahoo Sports columnist Dan Wetzel. "With Michigan basketball, it's the opposite. The perception in the fan base is, after so many years of the program having excuses made for it, the fans' view is lower than the reality college coaches put on the program. College coaches say that's a top 10 job."

Wetzel noted that the state of Michigan has incredible talent and there are more than enough players for Michigan and Michigan State to both thrive. He said Michigan kids are still split 50/50 on Michigan and Michigan State, with that number leaning heavily toward U-M in Detroit.

The bluster about Michigan's limited facilities and disinterested fan base is not a driving factor, Wetzel said.

"Michigan can recruit nationally," he said. "It's an unbelievable school and campus; the only thing missing is structural advancements. Those are down the line. You can get guys out of major conferences to take this job. You can get a coach out of (the) ACC, Big 12. You can't get them to leave North Carolina, but from most places, you can."

There are further quotes from Jay Bilas, who's telling anyone who will listen that Amaker walked into Beruit six years ago and made it a happy bunny meadow:

"It's a high-level job, it's a Big Ten job," said ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, who coached with Amaker as assistants at Duke. "Now it's on a solid foundation, starting at the starting line instead of 20 yards behind like before (Amaker) arrived."

Bilas said the facilities are a significant problem and one could "make an argument" that the Minnesota job -- another high-profile opening -- would be competitive with Michigan because of its recent small-scale renovations.

"What they need to do is to find the best possible coach without regard to some type of template that the media likes to throw out," Bilas said of Michigan. "The bottom line is there are a number of coaches available. But in order to have an outstanding basketball program, you have to show a commitment to basketball, not just a coach but the entire community. Michigan hasn't made that commitment, and until they do ... they'll have issues to face."

Crap, I say. Amaker did walk into a bad situation, but no one held it against him when his first two years were miserable. The NCAA sanction cloud was always overblown -- after his first year, which everyone gave him a mulligan on, Michigan faced no significant recruiting restrictions -- and the facilities argument is being blown way out of proportion. Did Crisler Arena turn it over twenty times a game more often than not? Did the lack of a practice facility offer Smith and Coleman as sophomores? Was the brick in the locker room unable to improve Michigan's players? The overwhelming reason Michigan was not good at basketball the past two years was Amaker's lack of coaching ability, and anyone offering up weak facilities arguments is covering for a very, very nice man who can't coach.

The most irritating thing is that the facilities meme espoused by people trying to find any reason to argue for Amaker has spilled over into the mainstream media as a major reason the Michigan basketball program sucks. It's not. Since Steve Fisher left in the wake of Martingate, Michigan has been run by Brian Ellerbe and Tommy Amaker. Ellerbe does not and never will have another D-I job, and I'd bet you a dollar Tommy finds himself in the same boat. Ten years of mismanagement by coaches is the reason the Michigan basketball program finds itself brought low. And since the all-encompassing ennui around the team has discouraged financial contributions for a freakin' decade -- one in which the facilities race really got started -- there has been no money with which to build the hypothetically opulent palace in which Amaker still would have been a very nice man who can't coach.

The AD at Michigan doesn't operate like the AD at other schools. They won't take on debt and they are self-funding (including 70% out-of-state scholarships at 30k per year -- you can make the argument that the AD helps support the university, not vice versa). When local columnists opine that Michigan must shell out for the program they neglect to mention where this money is going to come from.

Take the baseball program, which brings in almost no revenue. Rich Maloney showed up, looked at a decrepit and uncompetitive situation, and im
mediately started raising capital for a new stadium. At this very moment a multi-million dollar replacement of Fisher stadium is underway because Rich Maloney went out and found the money for it. If you really want to blame someone for the supposedly sorry state of the basketball facilities, you can find him wearing a mock turtleneck on the next bus to Durham. In this case: win, we'll come, and you'll build it.

Mr. Basketball. Is recruit Manny Harris, who says he's still a recruit... probably:

"I'm going to wait and see who they hire," said Harris, the 27th winner of the prestigious award, selected by the Basketball Coaches Association of Michigan in conjunction with the Free Press. "But my heart is still with Michigan."

Further bit about Amaker being all class:

Amaker had some advice for Harris.

"He told me 'Michigan is still Michigan,' " Harris said. "It's still a good school."

More on Harris from a Rise article earlier this year.

Etc.: ESPN Wojo says Tubby should leave before he's axed. Fat chance; the Canzano column that started the Ernie Kent speculation; Minnesota grumbling about being second banana.

Guys ommitted for one reason or another... mostly unfeasible. Sean Miller is getting enough buzz to warrant a full profile.

MORE NOs:

• Rick Majerus, Anywhere With A Buffet. Age and weight make a precarious combination. Landed Utah on probation for persistent minor rules infringements. Has a reputation as a flake.
• Rudy Tomjanovich. If he wanted to get back into coaching would be a strong candidate. Alum, NBA championship winning coach, etc. But he's given no indication that he's looking for a job after battling bladder cancer. Doubtful he has the energy of a younger candidate. Would be totally sweet if he was interested and brought in a couple Xs and Os guys along with Jalen Rose as assistants, but filed under "pipe dream." No one's even floated his name, so I assume he's out of the picture.
• John Calipari, Memphis. Are you on drugs or something? Seriously. About the only candidate out there less realistic on multiple levels than Tom Crean.
• Ernie Kent, Oregon. See Stan Heath: let's not grab a guy who's currently on the outs with his athletic department, especially one who's 1) still on the outs despite being in the Sweet 16, 2) buoyed in recruiting by vast pools of Nike money, and 3) enough of a nut to come out and complain that he should be allowed to talk to Michigan if he wants during the NCAA tournament his team is still active in. Yeah, he got Malik Hairston. But two words: hell no.

Only feasible if UK wants to eject the guy. As of now he's the highest paid coach in the country and no doubt has a mountainous buyout. He won't be making the money he is at UK, but he'll also be a god walking amongst mortals instead of one of the most hated men in Kentucky. Smith would be an outstanding option if he comes free.

As noted, Beilein has an enormous 2.5 to 3 million dollar buyout. Could Michigan pay the buyout, pay Amaker's buyout, pay for Beilein, and turn Crisler into something other than a derelict lean-to in the eye of a hurricane of public opinion? Probably not. VERDICT Buyout is prohibitive and the total outlay in that situation is approaching a range in which Montgomery or Smith might perk up. There will be -- already has been -- a lot of talk about him, but I don't see it happening.

BRIEF YEAH, RIGHTS:

• Tom Crean, Marquette. As mentioned earlier, Crean is the fourth-highest-paid coach in all the land. He'd have to take a paycut to come here. Since Wade left, Marquette has gone to two NITs and gotten booted in the first round two other times. Plus he would commit hari-kiri if he ever beat Izzo. Pure fantasy on the part of Detroit sportswriters.
• Stan Heath, Arkansas. Leaving aside the MSU stuff, Heath was one SEC tourney run away from getting canned. No thanks. Let's try to find someone who's actually liked by their fanbase... Tubby Smith potentially excluded.
• Bruce Pearl, Tennessee. 1) probably wouldn't leave, as Tennessee would pony up to keep him, 2) has a mildly skeezy rep, 3) exposure of Illinois cheating somehow makes him a controversial figure instead of, you know, the guys doing the actual cheating.
• Jamie Dixon, Pitt. Why on earth would he leave Pitt? Michigan would be a lateral move for him.
• Mark Hughes, Sacramento Kings assistant. A Michigan alum, but no head coaching experience outside of the CBA.

BRIEF NOs:

• Anthony Grant, VCU. Everybody's hero after VCU booted Duke out of the tourney, but has been a head coach for one year. Longtime association with Billy Donovan does not help... unless he's the guy who got them Roberson and Horford. But did he do it on the up and up?
• Sean Miller, Xavier. Doesn't have the resume the above do, IMO, and has the dreaded Product Hair.

It was pointed out that Ron Lee's sudden absence from the Michigan staff passed without mention here; that it did. That occasionally happens when I throw something up on the Fanhouse that's specifically Michigan-related.

Expanding on the above-linked: Lee did seem unable to get any of his charges to improve in hindsight, but that's just hindsight. Remember when we were big fans of Morgan Trent? Yeah, that was about eight games into the season. Maybe more. Once you got past Hall the cornerback talent Lee was presented with was mediocre at best. Anyone who's followed this blog over the past couple years knows that Michigan's been snakebit at corner in recruiting. A full list of those available to Lee:

• Hall. Granted, he's very good.
• Trent. Fast as hell but seemingly incapable of cutting fast enough to bother anyone on short routes. (This may be the much-referred-to "hips" and "swivel" jargony football experts throw out on draft shows.) Was rated and came to Michigan as a wide receiver and sort of looks like a wide receiver out there.
• Charles Stewart. Future safety. Destroyed in game against Minnesota.
• Johnny Sears. Redshirt freshman sleeper who was clearly not ready. One year of varsity high school football before coming here. Lee can't really be blamed for his struggles, nor should Sears be written off just yet.
• Brandon Harrison. Five-eight guy who bounced to safety and back, played in the nickel this year. Main contribution was missing a few tackles, IIRC.

This is the long way of saying that whatever the reasons for his hasty departure, they probably aren't entirely, or even mostly, about the secondary's struggles at the end of the year. (Safeties were supposedly still coached by English, though it seems odd to have one coach for just the cornerbacks.)

So what else is there? Recruiting, I guess. It's been widely speculated that the staff shakeup last offseason was a major factor in Michigan's crappy recruiting year (other factors: 7-5 2005, ill-advised decision to split Michigan recruiting up amongst various staff members, general bloody-mindedness of the universe). Perhaps Lee was a part of that, and if you're going to have a guy who only coaches a few players, especially when your DC is a secondary coach, he'd better be a bang-up recruiter in the Orgeron mold.

So there's my completely unfounded speculation as to the reasons Lee was let go and a projection for his replacement: a pretty face who coaches "the secondary" but mostly goes into people's homes and steals the athletic children. So a Viking. Nordic hhhyyyyarr.