Dumb Wisconsin Laws
• No male is allowed to be in a state of arousal in public.
• Citizens may not murder their enemies.
• Whenever two trains meet at an intersection of said tracks, neither shall proceed until the other has.
• As people used to smuggle it in from Illinois, all yellow butter substitute is banned.
• It is illegal to wake a fireman when he is asleep.
• It is illegal to play checkers in public.
• You cannot "worry a squirrel."
• It is against the law to play a flute and drums on the streets to attract attention.
• If one is thought of as offensive looking, it is illegal for him to be in public during the day.
This is a message the players should get. My first reaction to UM’s predicament was to give up on the team this year. When you are expected to lose both of the next 2 games by significant margins, it’s easy to get discouraged. But then I wondered, what’s the chance that UM could still get to a bowl game this year and end up with a decent record. Given turnovers, missed extra points, injuries, illnesses, unexplained fluctuations in motivation, etc.—how likely is it that UM could steal one of the games Just think: Purdue beat OSU. Navy beat ND. NW beat Iowa…Washington(?state) beat USC….I could go on. The point is that there’s a lot that can happen that is not predictable with certainty even if one team is a big favorite. So what’s the chance that UM might finally catch a break after an otherwise heartbreaking season?
I first calculated the predicted point spreads based on UM OSU AND WI’s Sagarin Predictor ratings to get an idea about the possible point spreads in our next 2 games, as calculated below (the sagarin ratings are actually used by vegas to help set the betting lines, and the rating method chosen actually predicts the outcome of games).
I took a random game on the net that had posted both a 12-14 pt spread and odds roughly comparable to spreads I calculated for UM vs WI (-11 ) and OSU (-15).
I found that UM has a 31% chance of getting to a bowl game and the second most likely final record is 7-6.
Conclusion: A nearly 1/3 chance of a bowl is not a reason for hopelessness…in fact, it’s a far better chance than was the team's early season goal of winning the B10.
So, now is not a time for the team to get discouraged..but rather to redouble their efforts… One of their important goals is still in sight.
Let's do some golf channel analysis and give a Solid or Shank response for the upsets described below.
Wisky over OSU - Solid or Shank?
I call this the upset game of the week in the Big Ten. Wisky keeps getting better over the weeks and i think they have OSU's number.
Illinois over MSU - Solid or Shank?
Ok, by now you're asking, is this really an upset call? Umm, maybe considering the Illini record at the time being. I threw it in just because i think Sparty will continue to self destruct after their superbowl victory last week. The Illini are looking to make something happen with a new QB at the helm and likely see MSU as the sucker they have been waiting for.
Of course, we can discuss an upset victory over Iowa but we have done that enough on here already.
|kickoff||to the 19||Winston looks a little thick to be a return man|
|1st n 10||Ace||1||about as vanilla as can be, off tackle zone dive|
|2nd n 9||5W Trips right||inc||dropped on the crossing pattern|
|3rd n 9||Shotgun slot rt||inc||no one home, MSU got away with a hold|
|4th n 9||Punt||penalty||kick catch interference, must be that famous dantonio discipline|
|1st n 10||Doube Tight rt, slot left||inc||playaction comeback, open but underthrown|
|2nd n 10||offset right||3||counter left|
|3rd n 7||SG, 4W, Double FL left||inc||greg jones with pressure|
|4th n 7||punt||to the 3||nice hangtime|
|WTF?||torrent missing some gametime, must be a replay|
|1st n 10||offset rt, motion slot rt||8||rollout to the field, man open in the zone|
|2nd n 2||offset lt, motion double TE||-5||corner blitz blew up the pitch sweep|
|3rd n 7||4w||7||crossing pattern, generous spot|
|1st n 10||?? Split FB, RB is 9 yards deep||5||counter tre left. Almost like a power iso with a pulling guard|
|2nd n 5||offset rt||-4||Worthy gets good penetration|
|3rd n 9||SG,3w offset lt||2||crappy draw|
|4th n 7||Punt||touchback||really slow to get the punt away|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot lt||8||White on the stop route on the rt into the boundary|
|2nd n 2||I right||1||zone dive left, vanilla, vanilla, vanilla|
|Welcome to the jungle being piped in…eeeewwwww|
|3rd n 1||fuckyou espn||QB sneek||didn't see the play|
|1st n 10||Ace||inc||PA rt, bootleg left, underthrown out n up|
|2nd n 10||SG 4WR||5||Bubble screen rt, dell was shaken up on previous play|
|3rd n 5||SG 5WR, near slots||inc, penalty||missed white over the middle, but PI called|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot lt||2||1 step hook|
|2nd n 8||3WR, slot lt||intercepted||whoops, thrown right to him, complete misread|
|1st n 10||offset rt||15||QB naked boot run|
|1st n 10||3WR offset rt||5||offtackle rt|
|2nd n 5||I slot left, motion I rt||8||offtackle rt|
|1st n 10||Slot left||13||end around to the left|
|1st n goal||I left, 3TE, motion right||4||Dive|
|2nd n goal||Double Tight lt, offset right||TD, penalty||playaction to th TE at the endline on a slant, but negated|
|2nd n goal at 16||4WR, twins right||TD||TE on the seam, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 36||Winston has good speed once he gets going|
|1st n 10||4WR, trips right||-1||zone dive left, vanilla, vanilla, vanilla|
|2nd n 11||SG, slot right||14||draw trap right, Caper bounces it outside|
|1st n 10||I left||12||5 step drop, comeback, vanilla|
|1st n 10||double tight, I left||14||offtackle rt, vanilla|
|1st n 10||I left||8||hook on the right, cousins does a good job of lookin left at snap|
|2nd n 2||I slot left||3||offtackle right, vanilla|
|1st n 10||motion, slot left||inc||badly overthrown|
|2nd n 10||offset left, near WR||inc||badly overthrown, should have ran it, the flood had taken everyone away|
|3rd n 10||SG, slot left||TD||jump ball fade to dell who made a nice adjustment, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 31||looked like there was a lane, but he got tripped up|
|1st n 10||shift, offset right||penalty||Playaction, post man caught the ball, but negated|
|1st n 10||offset rt, twins left||5||FB in the flat|
|2nd n 5||one back, strong left||18||MSU blitzed, picked up, playaction TE in left flat|
|1st n 10||offset right, slot right||inc||underthrown on the out route|
|2nd n 10||1 back, 3WR, twins right||17||Trap right, Clay bounces it for a big gain|
|1st n 10||1 back, motion, offset left||8||counter trap left|
|2nd n 2||I slot left, motion rt||0||QB boot, is stuffed|
|3rd n 2||1 back, twins left||16||comeback on the outside, #9 for MSU missed tackle|
|1st n goal at 6||4 WR, trips right||TD||TE hooked at the goal line, low ball, nice catch, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 24|
|1st n 10||I left||0||Nichol, power option left, nicely defended|
|2nd n 10||I right||12||8 yard hook to the left boundary, Dell|
|1st n 10||I right (looks illegal)||intercepted||jump ball on a fly to the right sideline, terrible throw, safety in position|
|1st n 10||1 back, 3WR, motion strong rt||inc||boot right, field side, good coverage|
|2nd n 10||Shift, oneback, h-back left||penalty||encroachment, more dantonio discipline|
|2nd n 5||motion offset right||7||TE (lined up at FB) in the flat, same play as before|
|1st n 10||motion, offset left||4||offtackle trap left|
|2nd n 6||flanker right||penalty||bad formation, illegal motion|
|2nd n 11||SG 3WR, twins right||penalty||missed on the comeback, but sparty got PI, held the jersey|
|1st n 10||motion offset right||1||offtackle trap rt, MSU finally adjusts and shuts this down|
|2nd n 9||1 back, 3WR, flanker left||inc||ball batted on what was going to be another comeback route|
|3rd n 9||SG, 3WR, twins left||15||rub route cross to the left|
|1st n 10||fuckyou espn, twins right?||5||rollout to the right (field), comeback was wide open|
|2nd n 5||twins left||inc||fly route was wide open, overthrown|
|3rd n 5||4WR||6||hook to the boundary slot|
|1st n 10||3WR, twins left||17||In to the boundary side (right) and a facemask|
|1st n goal at 1||I 3TE||inc||play action, overthrown, both crossing TE were wide open|
|2nd n goal at 1||I, 3TE||TD||Inside Trap, clay just bowls in, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 21|
|1st n 10||SG, Slot left||1||draw trap left, Wisc DT's blow it up with penetration|
|2nd n 9||SG, slot left||-7||Cousins sacked, had the flat left, but didn't see it.|
|3rd n 17||SG, slot right||penalty||Dell went out, and caught the ball for an apparent first, but negated|
|4th and 17||Punt||to the 47||punter went down, no flag, hit by own man|
|1st n 10||SG, trips left||inc||ball dropped, a little low, to the left, nickle blitz was picked up|
|2nd n 10||SG, split, flanker left||inc||another blitz, another pickup, and another drop|
|3rd n 10||SG, split, flanker left||inc||pressure, overthrown, anderson beat the right tackle|
|4th and 10||punt||at the 15||fair caught|
|1st n 10||5WR, trips left||17||Dell on the out|
|1st n 10||slot left, confusion||inc||threw inside of the slot on the cross out|
|2nd n 10||5WR, trips left||3||boundary slot ran a flat|
|3rd and 7||4WR||inc||commenters ripping on the sparty offense, haha, overthrown|
|4th n 7||Punt||to the 28||low kick,made two men miss, but the first came back to make tackle|
|1st n 10||twins right||4||Dive left|
|3rd Quarter||21-7 wisconsin leads|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 15||nice coverage|
|1st n 10||I, double tight right||13||offtackle trap right|
|1st n 10||I tight, left||6||Iso left|
|2nd n 4||I doulbe tight left||fumble||pitch sweep, bad hands by the RB|
|1st n 10||Ace||2||Zone dive left, cutback right, vanilla|
|2nd n 8||I left||15||counter trap left, winston busts through some arm tackles|
|1st n 10||I slot left||4||Iso right|
|2nd n 6||I right,||-2||Sweep right, run blitz blew it up|
|3rd n 8||split, flanker left||inc||overthrown to the right, white was wide open on the far side|
|4th n 8||FG||FG|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 26||short kick|
|1st n 10||Double Tight left, motion||6||counter dive, nice cutback|
|2nd n 4||Offset left||2||inside trap|
|3rd n 2||I tight right||5||counter play action, TE flat|
|1st n 10||I tight right||2||Trap right|
|2nd n 8||1 back, twins left||6||trap left, the DT whose guy pulled just missed a TFL|
|3rd n 2||Offset, strong left||4||student body left|
|1st n 10||Double tight left, offset right||3||counter tre right|
|2nd n 7||I doulbe tight left||3||counter tre left|
|3rd n 4||strong I right||penalty||PA to TB in the flat, but negated by downfield block|
|3rd n 3||? Uhh..wingbacks?||3||counter trap left|
|1st n 10||Strong I, double tight left||5||Dive left|
|2nd n 5||Strong I, double tight left||0||Counter trap left|
|3rd n 5||SG, 4WR, Left side near stacked||7||just a simple out|
|1st n 10||I left, shift, I right||0||Offtackle right|
|2nd n 10||1 back, twins left||inc||deflected at the line|
|3rd n 10||SG twins left||inc||pressure, overthrown, both tackles were beaten|
|4th n 10||FG||FG|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 30||Winston is a load, but he doesn't have the acceleration|
|1st n 10||1 back, double tight left||9||PA Zone left, TE moved like he was pulling but went to the flat, first non vanilla play|
|2nd n 1||slot left, motion ace,||12||Dive left, weak play, but roken arm tackles|
|1st n 10||Strong I right,||27||PA TE on the seam, nice pass, nice catch|
|1st n 10||Offset right||3||Trap left, play was stuffed, but winston falls forward for a couple|
|2nd n 7||slot right||TD||play action post, amazing catch by cunningham, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 31||hesitated coming out of the endzone|
|1st n 10||motion, offset right||45||PA fly, nice pass, stutter and go|
|1st n 10||strong I left||1||counter tre left|
|2nd n 9||strong I right, motion left||3||offtackle right|
|4th Quarter||wisconis 24-17|
|3rd n 6||4WR,||TD||slot guy beat man coverage and a nice pass in front of the safety, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||penalty||returned to the 34, penalty to the 7|
|1st n 10||3 WR, split flanker right||10||FB in motion, ran an 8 yard hook|
|1st n 10||SG, 3WR slot right||inc||underthrown on the seam|
|2nd n 10||4WR||13||hot slant to the slot|
|1st n 10||I left||fumble||Iso to the right, more penetration by the wisc DL|
|1st n 10||Strong I right||2||off tackle left, MSU got penetration|
|2nd n 8||I right, shift, offset left||7||Off tackle right, nice cutback, great blocking on the backside|
|3rd n 1||Strong I right,||TD||PA, blitz was picked up, no one coverd the TE, PAT good|
|That's his third TD!|
|1st n 10||Ace||5||Zone dive left, vanilla|
|2nd n 5||split, flanker right||inc||overthrow|
|3rd n 5||penalty||false start|
|3rd n 10||SG, 3WR, slot right||35||nice pass beating the deep zone|
|1st n 10||SG, 3WR, slot left||5||TE ran an out|
|2nd n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||inc||tipped, nearly intercepted|
|3rd n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||inc||held the ball too long, good coverage, overthrown|
|4th n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||8||boundary WR ran a slant, took a big hit but held on|
|1st n 10||?? Fuespn, SG slot right?||inc||barely overthrown cunningham on the deep post|
|2nd n 10||SG, ace||inc||white dropped the 5 yard hook|
|3rd n 10||SG, 4WR, trips left||inc||wanted the screen to the left (boundary)|
|4th n 10||SG, 4WR||sacked||that's the ball game.|
|1st n 10||Strong offset right||5||missed handoff, QB kept for positive yards|
|2nd n 5||offset right||17||Clay just running through arm tackles|
|1st n 10||Strong offset left||2||just grinding the clock|
|2nd n 8||Twins left||7||counter trap left|
|3rd n 1||Strong I right||4||off tackle left|
|1st n 10||Strong I left||2||counter tre left, wisconsin is starting to look as vanilla as MSU|
|The difference is that they have a 21 point lead|
|2nd n 8||Offset right, motion||0||QB kept it, maybe a busted play|
|3rdn n 8||4WR, stacked right||7||rollout right, hit the out route, good tackle to prevent the first down|
|4th n 2||Strong offset left||0||pitch sweep left|
|1st n 10||5WR trips right||penalty||false start|
|1st n 15||5WR trips right||27||Dell, Wisc is in umbrella|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot left||6||slot out|
|2nd n 4||F .U. espn ??||25||Nichols runs a QB keeper for a nice pickup,|
|Looked like max protect, 3 men in the pattern|
|1st n 10||4WR||inc||tipped|
|2nd n 10||SG 3WR slot right||inc||jump ball to dell, hung up in the air|
|3rd n 10||SG 4WR||intercepted||jump ball to the endzone, msu got away with more holding|
|1st n 10||Strong I||1||run left|
|2nd n 9||offset right||6||run right|
|3rd n 3||??||1||QB boot, held it, just killing clock here|
|4th n 2||punt||to the 37|
|1st n 10||SG slot left||20?||Sims is wide open against the prevent zone|
|1st n 10||SG ?||inc||overthrow on the flag route|
|2nd n 10||SG 4WR||20?||deep out is open|
|1st n 10||SG 3WR||TD||Soft zone and missed tackle, WR dove over the pylon, 2pt no good, sacked|
|kickoff||onside kick||wisconsin recovers|
|1st n 10||run|
|2nd n 14||run|
|who cares||punt to the 9 yard line|
|1st n 10||SG 5 WR||91 TD||how the hell does that happen?|
|What was the point spread?|
|kickoff||onside kick||wisconsin recovers|
- MSU's offense was BOOOOOORRRRRRRIIIIIINGGGG!!!
- Which was strange since I saw them run several trick plays against CMU (CMU!)
- Winston is a bruiser, but not very nimble.
- Caper has good strength and speed and likes to bounce it outside
- Blair white had a horrible day, but he looked pretty acrobatic against CMU
- Their TE Sims looks like a decent pass catching threat
- Their offensive tackles were getting pushed around all day
- Dell is a pretty good jumper, but he seemed to be suffering from the same landing problems as the ND receivers. Nearly broke his own collarbone.
- Cunningham is a fairly athletic receiver too
- Cousins did not have a good day. Way too many overthrows.
- My impression is that he's not really that good at reading defenses.
- Of course he is just a sophomore (but tate's a frosh!)
- If they only run zone stretches and dives at us all day, ezeh and mouton might actually end up with plusses in brian's UFR
- Nichols is not much of a passing threat. He's got a decent arm, but his instinct is to run. And let's just say he doesn't have Denard's speed.
- He also didn't look that great on the one option play they ran, but maybe Wisc just had it defended well.
- Greg jones was causing havok all day, but Wisc did a good job neutralizing him with short passes and extra TE's to block.
- This is a trap running team. There is almost always a pulling lineman
- They have about 5 running plays but
- they run them from about a hundred different formations
- And they use a ton of motion and shifts, so it's hard to determine what formation they're in until late
- Which is important, because they run to strength nearly 90% of the time (estimate)
- Their TE graham had a great day.
- Toon looked like a very serviceable receiver.
- This will be a "line em up and smack em in the face" game when we play them. I'm hoping will campbell is ready for some major minutes by that time.
- so, worry if we've got defenders running around looking like they're lost before the snap.
So what's it mean for this week?
I've seen 3 of sparty's games and they looked worse than normal against Wisconsin. They seemed emotionally lethargic. It wasn't really as close as the final score. Wisconsin made them pay for silly turnovers. Even the play calling was ridiculously vanilla. It was like watching a game from 1993.
Sparty will be up for us this week. Expect them to play much better. Expect them to have special trick plays, that they were saving for us. I think our front 7 will be able to slow down their run game "enough", but yes, I'm worried about the corner-not-named-warren.
What worries me most is that it's in east lansing, where nefarious shenanigans have been known to take place. I forsee a pretty high scoring game. But with the good guys coming out on top thanks to Tate's general awesomeness, and Denard's teleportation powers.
I say Michigan 41- Sparty 34
We're looking at taking a group up to Madison for the game and are wondering where is a good place to sit at Camp Randall? We're rather sit with Michigan people than go for better seats with Badgers. Any advice from the good folk of the Board?