this may be of some local interest
God, I hate Wisconsin.
(via Dr. Saturday)
Stu Douglass has gotten a decent share of grief for doubling up on Jordan Taylor last night and not sticking with his man. After watching the video again, this is wrong.
As the play begins, Stu is matched up with Taylor. Hardaway is guarding the inbound (Gasser). Nankivil bodies into Novak, but no one actually sets a screen on Douglass as he follows his man (Taylor) to the ball. After the inbound is made, Hardaway makes no effort to follow the inbounder (Gasser) as he loops behind Taylor. Douglass seems to notice Gasser looping behind him and hesitates as to whether or not he should switch and give Taylor to Hardaway. He points to Hardaway as though there should be a switch. That hesistation is probably the killer in the whole sequence.
We don't know exactly what Beilein's plan was, but he did say in the post game that he didn't plan on giving help. If it was supposed to be a straight man coverage, Hardaway dropped the ball by completely abandoning his man (Gasser). If they were supposed to exchange, I don't see how Douglass (or anyone) could have pulled that off. If he tracks Gasser as he passes him by, Taylor is going to pull up for an in rhythm, open look before Hardaway closes on him. If he sticks completely to Taylor, they get a decent double team and maybe Taylor can't make that pass to Gasser, but if he can, he's WIDE open.
Anyway, point is, I don't think it's as clear that Douglass botched the defensive assignment on the play as people would make it out to be. He didn't leave his man to double Taylor. Taylor was his man.
So just looked up a couple of sites for predictions on the upcoming game against Wisconsin.
Kenpom says U-M has a 29% chance of winning, and calls UW 62 - UM 57.
RealTimeRPI basically calls it a toss-up, giving Michigan the slight edge, with a 50.8% win probability and final score of 66-65 in favor of the good guys.
I did a quick cursory search and couldn't fine vegas lines for the game (but most of those sites are also blocked at my work). Anyone see anything else out?
Ultimately, odds/probabilities/lines don't really mean squat, but it's at least fun to see what oddsmakers and the computers come up with.
Wisconsin has delivered a win. Indiana screwed the pooch against Boston College. Purdue is losing to Va Tech. Looks like we have to cheer for Penn State (I can't cheer for Sparty). One win from winning the challenge. Come on someone...
We're about to lose a game.
To all who are about to complain about RichRod, please don't be douchebags. It's a game we were supposed to lose.
Maybe I'm out of line or just on my toes because of all of the douchebag comments this year after any loss, and if that's the case then just calm down. But I'm pretty sure people are going to be saying "Harbaugh" a whole bunch after the game and if so, I think you should just sit on something pointy and shut the fuck up.
That being said, Go Blue. Beat the Buckeyes.
Edit: Mods, if you feel it necessary to take it off then fine, I'm just sick of the...douchebaggy post-loss talk.