Recruiting Rankings

Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 3-19-12

By Ace — March 19th, 2012 at 11:07 AM — 34 comments
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Michigan gets two more commits over the past week, so the Big Ten recruiting rankings are front-paged. Also making a big move is Penn State, which grabbed a pair of commits of their own. Changes since last rankings:

3-9-12: Penn State picks up Adam Breneman.
3-10-12: Michigan picks up Gareon Conley.
3-13-12: Michigan State picks up Caleb Benenoch.
3-14-12: Notre Dame picks up James Onwualu.
3-15-12: Illinois picks up Jesse Chadwell.
3-17-12: Michigan picks up DeVeon Smith. Penn State picks up Brendan Mahon.

Chart? Chart:

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # Commits Rivals Avg Scout Avg 24/7 Avg Avg Avg^
1 Michigan 16 3.25 3.88 3.75 3.63
2 Ohio State 5 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.20
3 Penn State 5 4.00 3.60 3.60 3.73
4 Michigan State 5 1.60 3.20 3.20 2.67
5 Notre Dame 3 2.00 3.33 3.67 3.00
6 Nebraska 2 4.00 2.50 3.00 3.17
7 Illinois 2 1.00 1.00 2.50 1.50
8 Wisconsin 1 1.00 3.00 3.00 2.33
9 Minnesota 1 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.67
10 Indiana 0 - - - -
11 Iowa 0 - - - -
12 Northwestern 0 - - - -
13 Purdue 0 - - - -

^The average of the average rankings of the three recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as one-star players. This may be a bit unfair this early in the process, considering there are many unevaluated recruits out there at this stage, but that's life.

On to the full data, after the jump.

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Composite 2013 FB Recruit Rankings

By turd ferguson — March 11th, 2012 at 12:36 AM — 31 comments
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Having done something similar last year, I just combined the Scout, Rivals, and 247 football recruit rankings into one.  The purpose is to help sort through the confusion that comes from seeing three different rankings for each kid.  I provide a little analysis below the rankings, but I’ll leave the rest to you.

What to know about how I did this:

I started with the Scout 300, Rivals 250, and 247’s top 247 and removed all of the prospects who were ranked by only one of them.  Therefore, every prospect below appeared on at least two of those three lists.  The reasons for this are that: (1) it keeps the rankings to a manageable size and (2) if only one site really likes a prospect, it might just be an outlier.

If a kid was ranked by two services but not the third, I imputed a ranking for the third service.  To do this, I added 100 to the lowest ranking provided by that service.  In other words, a kid who wasn’t ranked in Scout’s top 300 received a Scout ranking of 400; a kid who wasn’t ranked in Rivals’ top 250 received a Rivals ranking of 350; and a kid who wasn’t ranked in 247’s top 247 received a 247 rank of 347.

I took one more step before finding the average ranking for each prospect.  I incorporated the median ranking across those three services.  Therefore, a prospect’s mean ranking, which is the basis of these rankings, comes from an average of his real/imputed Scout ranking, Rivals ranking, 247 ranking, and the median of the three.  I added the median to mitigate the effect that one outlier ranking would have on a prospect’s mean.

Okay, enough with that. 

Edit: I just added position rankings.  Note that I used the positions listed by Scout.
 

The rankings:

        Scout Rivals 247 med (avg)
1 Robert Nkemdiche DE-1   1 1 1 1 1
2 Reuben Foster MLB-1 Alabama 2 2 2 2 2
3 Laremy Tunsil OT-1   4 3 4 4 3.75
4 Max Browne QB-1   5 8 5 5 5.75
5 Vernon Hargreaves III CB-1   6 10 3 6 6.25
6 Su'a Cravens S-1   9 5 9 9 8
7 Thomas Tyner RB-1 Oregon 20 9 10 10 12.25
8 Robert Foster WR-1   3 26 11 11 12.75
9 Kenny Bigelow DT-1 USC 29 6 13 13 15.25
10 Matthew Thomas OLB-1   18 12 16 16 15.5
10 Montravius Adams DT-2   11 33 7 11 15.5
12 Ricky Seals-Jones WR-2 Texas 8 13 32 13 16.5
13 Jaylon Smith OLB-2   16 34 6 16 18
14 Kendall Fuller CB-2   31 4 19 19 18.25
15 Shane Morris QB-2 Michigan 28 16 14 16 18.5
16 Ty Isaac RB-2   13 18 28 18 19.25
17 Derrick Henry RB-3 Georgia 19 29 12 19 19.75
18 Dee Liner DT-3 Auburn 12 42 17 17 22
19 Derrick Griffin WR-3 Texas A&M 30 19 22 22 23.25
20 Adam Breneman TE-1 Penn State 22 22 29 22 23.75
21 Joey Bosa DE-2   24 14 37 24 24.75
22 Eddie Vanderdoes DT-4   15 21 43 21 25
23 Tyrone Swoopes QB-3 Texas 10 11 70 11 25.5
24 Antonio Conner S-2   7 38 33 33 27.75
25 Jalin Marshall RB-4 Ohio State 34 41 8 34 29.25
25 Michael Hutchings OLB-3   27 17 46 27 29.25
27 Kent Perkins OT-2 Texas 52 25 20 25 30.5
28 E.J. Levenberry OLB-4   80 15 21 21 34.25
29 Cameron Burrows CB-3 Ohio State 74 7 30 30 35.25
30 O.J. Howard TE-2 Alabama 36 35 49 36 39
31 Altee Tenpenny RB-5 Alabama 83 20 27 27 39.25
32 Jake Raulerson OT-3 Texas 42 51 25 42 40
33 Max Redfield S-3   62 30 35 35 40.5
34 Keith Ford RB-6 Oklahoma 14 113 18 18 40.75
35 Stacy Coley WR-4   41 45 56 45 46.75
36 Dymonte Thomas S-4 Michigan 35 77 40 40 48
37 Mackensie Alexander CB-4   71 56 15 56 49.5
38 Kyle Bosch OT-4 Michigan 49 60 42 49 50
39 Ethan Pocic OT-5   57 27 60 57 50.25
39 Marquez North WR-5   73 24 52 52 50.25
41 Leon McQuay S-5   96 32 39 39 51.5
42 A'Shawn Robinson DT-5 Texas 43 69 50 50 53
43 Greg Bryant RB-7   59 23 73 59 53.5
44 Darius James C-1 Texas 48 92 36 48 56
45 Justin Manning DT-6   21 89 59 59 57
46 Jake Oliver WR-6 Texas 53 61 58 58 57.5
47 Steven Elmer OT-6 Notre Dame 99 49 44 49 60.25
48 Laquon Treadwell WR-7   76 31 75 75 64.25
49 Derwin Gray OT-7   61 105 34 61 65.25
50 Isaiah Golden DT-7 Texas A&M 54 63 85 63 66.25
51 Ahmad Fulwood WR-8   69 59 72 69 67.25
51 Kailo Moore RB-8   66 74 65 66 67.75
53 Chris Fox OG-1 Michigan 137 46 47 47 69.25
54 Kylie Fitts DE-3   75 81 51 75 70.5
55 Eli Woodard CB-5 Ohio State 90 28 83 83 71
56 ArDarius Stewart WR-9 Alabama 85 75 53 75 72
56 Isaac Savaiinaea MLB-2   23 155 55 55 72
58 Henry Poggi DT-8   134 43 66 66 77.25
58 Steven Mitchell WR-10   81 52 95 81 77.25
60 Daniel McMillian MLB-3 Florida 51 53 157 53 78.5
61 James Quick WR-11   26 194 48 48 79
62 Justin Davis RB-9   17 48 209 48 80.5
62 Marcell Harris S-6   201 39 41 41 80.5
64 Patrick Kugler OG-2 Michigan 25 54 190 54 80.75
65 Kelvin Taylor RB-10 Florida 91 111 31 91 81
66 Jonathan Allen DE-4   102 100 23 100 81.25
67 Tray Matthews S-7 Georgia 104 65 82 82 83.25
68 Greg Webb DT-9   77 78 102 78 83.75
69 Alquadin Muhammad OLB-5   86 139 26 86 84.25
70 Greg Gilmore DT-10   46 112 90 90 84.5
71 Kendell Beckwith OLB-6   55 158 64 64 85.25
72 Isaac Rochell DE-5   97 73 87 87 86
73 J.T. Barrett QB-4   89 134 38 89 87.5
74 Priest Willis S-8   33 84 155 84 89
75 Austin Golson OT-8 Florida State 125 57 92 92 91.5
75 Elijah Daniel DE-6   40 116 105 105 91.5
77 Hunter Henry TE-3   65 115 97 97 93.5
78 Ryan Green RB-11   135 90 78 90 98.25
79 Tyren Jones RB-12 Alabama 98 137 61 98 98.5
80 Kelsey Griffin DT-11   101 120 74 101 99
81 Darrell Daniels WR-12   39 170 94 94 99.25
82 Aaron Bailey QB-5   105 128 62 105 100
83 Derrick Green RB-13   124 64 108 108 101
84 Cooper Bateman QB-6   56 129 110 110 101.25
84 Dashon Hunt CB-6 UCLA 108 58 131 108 101.25
86 Larenz Bryant OLB-7   132 95 86 95 102
87 Kevin Olsen QB-7   118 131 45 118 103
88 Tim Kimbrough MLB-4   115 119 69 115 104.5
89 Dorian O'Daniel OLB-8   152 37 119 119 106.75
89 Shelton Gibson WR-13   130 103 91 103 106.75
91 Desean Smith TE-4   209 55 84 84 108
92 Tim Williams DE-7   107 144 77 107 108.75
93 Vonn Bell S-9   32 350 24 32 109.5
94 D.J. Ward DE-8   38 99 204 99 110
95 Dontre Wilson RB-14   70 186 93 93 110.5
96 Kameron Miles S-10   100 86 158 100 111
97 Logan Tuley-Tillman OT-9 Michigan 153 109 89 109 115
98 John Diarse S-11   128 66 140 128 115.5
99 Brice Ramsey QB-8 Georgia 63 249 79 79 117.5
100 Holland Fisher OLB-9 Virginia Tech 190 72 107 107 119
101 Marcus Baugh TE-5   154 114 98 114 120
102 Michael Hill DT-12   110 70 197 110 121.75
103 Troy Williams QB-9   188 71 115 115 122.25
104 Cole Luke CB-7   113 198 67 113 122.75
105 Tramel Terry WR-14 Georgia 106 127 145 127 126.25
106 Rickey Jefferson WR-15   157 104 125 125 127.75
107 Chans Cox MLB-5   148 40 178 148 128.5
108 Ryan Burns QB-10 Stanford 280 47 101 101 132.25
108 Sebastian LaRue WR-16   47 141 200 141 132.25
110 Ishmael Wilson OT-10 Texas A&M 171 143 80 143 134.25
111 Tyrone Crowder OG-3   72 350 54 72 137
112 Marcus Farria DE-9   119 179 129 129 139
113 Christian Hackenberg QB-11 Penn State 183 153 68 153 139.25
114 Nick Washington S-12 Florida 232 94 116 116 139.5
115 William Likely CB-8   225 79 128 128 140
116 Jaynard Bostwick DT-13   44 85 347 85 140.25
117 Trey Johnson OLB-10 Auburn 248 36 139 139 140.5
118 Carl Lawson DE-10   180 91 149 149 142.25
119 Malik Zaire QB-12   181 136 117 136 142.5
120 Billy Price DT-14 Ohio State 111 130 205 130 144
121 Tahaan Goodman S-13   67 150 212 150 144.75
122 Demarcus Walker DE-11   206 152 71 152 145.25
122 Evan Lisle OT-11 Ohio State 68 83 347 83 145.25
122 Jalen Ramsey CB-9   197 135 114 135 145.25
125 Michael McCray OLB-11 Michigan 202 44 168 168 145.5
126 Cody Thomas QB-13   162 178 88 162 147.5
127 Demarcus Robinson WR-17   192 97 153 153 148.75
127 Peter Kalambayi MLB-6   93 62 347 93 148.75
129 Tyshon Dye RB-15   123 187 144 144 149.5
130 Cornelius Elder RB-16   168 164 118 164 153.5
130 David Williams RB-17   120 192 151 151 153.5
132 Chris Hawkins CB-10   92 159 214 159 156
133 Joe Mathis DE-12   94 93 347 94 157
134 Alvin Kamara RB-18   109 350 63 109 157.75
135 Tashawn Bower DE-13   142 250 100 142 158.5
136 Artie Burns CB-11 Alabama 170 166 142 166 161
137 Jason Hatcher DE-14   37 221 194 194 161.5
138 Johnny Johnson CB-12   87 173 218 173 162.75
139 Garrett Sickels DE-15 Penn State 271 50 169 169 164.75
140 Taquan Mizzell RB-19   255 87 163 163 167
141 Kohl Stewart QB-14 Texas A&M 207 181 112 181 170.25
142 Jamar Gibson WR-18 Texas A&M 112 350 109 112 170.75
143 Jacorey Warrick WR-19 Texas 95 350 121 121 171.75
144 Jeryl Brazil CB-13 LSU 195 175 148 175 173.25
145 Wyatt Shallman FB-1 Michigan 179 160 187 179 176.25
146 Tarean Folston RB-20   184 174 174 174 176.5
147 Devon Allen WR-20   131 110 347 131 179.75
148 Tim Harris CB-14   294 161 104 161 180
149 Grant Hill OG-4 Alabama 139 350 96 139 181
150 Ashton Shumpert RB-21   114 350 132 132 182
151 Jake Butt TE-6 Michigan 147 96 347 147 184.25
152 Torrodney Prevot DE-16   84 350 152 152 184.5
153 Reeve Koehler OG-5   400 67 137 137 185.25
154 Aaron Cochran OT-12   400 98 127 127 188
155 Jamal Carter S-14   161 197 202 197 189.25
156 Riley Norman OT-13   196 225 141 196 189.5
157 Hunter Bivin OT-14   167 350 76 167 190
157 Kyle Hicks RB-22 Texas 116 350 147 147 190
159 Shaq Wiggins CB-15 Georgia 141 350 135 141 191.75
160 Khalfani Muhammad RB-23   400 108 130 130 192
161 Marcus Newby OLB-12   158 350 103 158 192.25
162 Earnest Robinson WR-21 Auburn 213 101 243 213 192.5
163 A.J. Turman RB-24   400 133 106 133 193
163 Tyree Robinson WR-22   400 124 124 124 193
165 Jordan Sherit DE-17   400 76 150 150 194
166 Johnny O'Neal MLB-7   172 88 347 172 194.75
167 Erik Bunte OT-15   240 206 133 206 196.25
168 Eldridge Massington WR-23   177 245 183 183 197
168 Kerrick Huggins DT-15 Texas A&M 133 154 347 154 197
170 Matthew Alviti QB-15   151 210 224 210 198.75
171 Kenny Lacy OT-16   164 122 347 164 199.25
172 Stanvon Taylor CB-16   246 188 177 188 199.75
173 Josh Banderas OLB-13   295 185 143 185 202
174 Taj Williams WR-24   203 177 227 203 202.5
175 Laquvionte Gonzalez RB-25 Texas A&M 237 151 213 213 203.5
176 Darius Latham DT-16   208 350 57 208 205.75
176 Nadir Barnwell CB-17   286 207 123 207 205.75
178 Nico Falah OT-17   45 216 347 216 206
179 John Montelus OG-6   50 214 347 214 206.25
179 Tony Stevens WR-25 Florida State 155 350 160 160 206.25
181 TraVon Chapman QB-16   191 106 347 191 208.75
182 Standish Dobard TE-7   79 208 347 208 210.5
183 Jayron Kearse OLB-14 Miami (Fl) 60 218 347 218 210.75
184 Johnathon McCrary QB-17 Vanderbilt 400 80 182 182 211
185 Nick Ramirez MLB-8   216 241 173 216 211.5
186 David Dawson OG-7 Michigan 264 199 196 199 214.5
187 Taco Charlton DE-18 Michigan 400 183 99 183 216.25
188 Jamel James RB-26 Arkansas 166 350 179 179 218.5
188 Ra'Shaad Samples WR-26   145 191 347 191 218.5
190 Daeshon Hall DE-19 Texas 140 350 193 193 219
191 L.J. Moore CB-18   205 223 233 223 221
192 John Lopez OG-8   289 126 238 238 222.75
193 Evan Voeller OT-18   200 145 347 200 223
194 Denver Kirkland OG-9   156 195 347 195 223.25
195 Doug Randolph OLB-15 Stanford 400 68 221 221 227.5
196 Matt Rolin OLB-16   230 350 111 230 230.25
197 Bucky Hodges QB-18   400 202 126 202 232.5
197 Sefo Liufau QB-19   400 196 138 196 232.5
199 De'Asian Richardson DT-17   212 350 161 212 233.75
200 James Hearns MLB-9 Florida 400 157 191 191 234.75
201 Michael Parker WR-27   238 117 347 238 235
202 Brandon Kublanow OG-10   273 243 184 243 235.75
203 Mike Williams WR-28   126 350 234 234 236
204 John Ross WR-29   217 350 166 217 237.5
205 Ben Gedeon OLB-17   159 224 347 224 238.5
206 Marcus McWilson S-15 Nebraska 233 142 347 233 238.75
207 Chase Abbington OLB-18 Missouri 193 350 207 207 239.25
208 Devin Lauderdale WR-30 Texas Tech 275 193 245 245 239.5
209 Alex Anzalone OLB-19   149 350 231 231 240.25
210 Jason Smith QB-20   229 350 154 229 240.5
211 Caleb Brantley DT-18 Florida 270 82 347 270 242.25
212 Alvin Bailey WR-31   400 138 219 219 244
212 Wayne Gallman RB-27   235 350 156 235 244
214 Wyatt Teller DT-19   400 168 206 206 245
215 Fred Ross WR-32 Oklahoma State 210 213 347 213 245.75
216 Lowell Loutlelei DT-20   272 244 230 244 247.5
217 Alex Collins RB-28 Miami (Fl) 252 147 347 252 249.5
218 Rodney Adams WR-33 Florida 290 234 239 239 250.5
219 Antwuan Davis CB-19   243 171 347 243 251
220 Tre'Davious White CB-20 LSU 400 215 175 215 251.25
221 Jourdan Lewis CB-21 Michigan 251 167 347 251 254
221 Mike Heuerman TE-8   228 350 210 228 254
221 Nazair Jones DE-20   400 240 136 240 254
224 Antonio Allen S-16   245 180 347 245 254.25
224 Marcell Ateman WR-34   265 140 347 265 254.25
226 Demorea Stringfellow WR-35   283 107 347 283 255
226 Jeremy Cutrer S-17 LSU 241 350 188 241 255
226 Tyrell Robinson S-18   400 228 164 228 255
226 Vita Vea DT-21   400 237 146 237 255
230 Hayden Rettig QB-21   277 123 347 277 256
230 Noel Ellis CB-22   254 169 347 254 256
232 Jeremy Johnson QB-22   218 350 232 232 258
233 Tyler Bruggman QB-23   222 232 347 232 258.25
234 Donovan Munger DT-22   220 350 237 237 261
235 Jon Reschke OLB-20 Michigan State 239 350 222 239 262.5
236 Na'Ty Rodgers OT-19   400 231 192 231 263.5
237 Deon Martin RB-29   297 350 113 297 264.25
237 Raheem Falkins WR-36 Alabama 400 211 223 223 264.25
239 D.J. Park OT-20 South Carolina 219 350 247 247 265.75
240 Nigel Bowden MLB-10   400 235 198 235 267
241 Brogan Roback QB-24   274 189 347 274 271
241 Darian Hicks CB-23   281 350 172 281 271
243 Brett Wade MLB-11   400 239 215 239 273.25
244 Kenny Hill QB-25   291 165 347 291 273.5
245 Cameron Walker CB-24   267 350 216 267 275
245 Marquez Grayson RB-30   257 350 236 257 275
247 Christian Morgan TE-9   269 222 347 269 276.75
247 Joshua Outlaw OG-11   296 350 165 296 276.75
249 Frank Herron DE-21   282 350 199 282 278.25
250 Jake Thomas OT-21   276 350 220 276 280.5
251 Jake Campos OT-22   292 204 347 292 283.75
252 Adam Taylor RB-31   285 247 347 285 291
253 David Kenney DE-22   299 238 347 299 295.75


Notes:

Michigan currently has commitments from:

#15 Shane Morris (#2 QB)
#36 Dymonte Thomas (#4 S)
#38 Kyle Bosch (#4 OT)
#53 Chris Fox (#1 OG)
#64 Patrick Kugler (#2 OG)
#97 Logan Tuley-Tillman (#9 OT)
#125 Michael McCray (#11 OLB)
#145 Wyatt Shallman (#1 FB)
#151 Jake Butt (#6 TE)
#186 David Dawson (#7 OG)
#187 Taco Charlton (#18 DE)
#221 Jourdan Lewis (#21 CB)

Gareon Conley and Jaron Dukes aren’t listed because they were only ranked by one service (Scout).  Khalid Hill isn’t currently ranked by any of them.

Here are the programs with the most commitments from this group - along with Big Ten programs (& Notre Dame) with at least one commitment:

Michigan – 12
Texas – 10 (but very top-heavy)
Alabama – 8
Texas A&M – 7
Florida – 6
Georgia – 5
Ohio State – 5
-----------------------
Penn State – 3
Michigan State – 1
Notre Dame – 1


Let me know if anything seems wrong or strange.

Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 3-8-12

By Ace — March 8th, 2012 at 5:01 PM — 60 comments
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With three of the recruiting services releasing their initial rankings and over half the Big Ten now possessing at least one commit, it's time to debut to Big Ten Recruiting Rankings for the class of 2013. I give you zero guesses about who is number one. Congratulations. You somehow won anyway.

ESPN is not included for now since they haven't released anything beyond their Watch List and an unsorted top 100 that they don't link or acknowledge anywhere else on the site, including individual player pages.

Chart? Chart:

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # Commits Rivals Avg Scout Avg 24/7 Avg Avg Avg^
1 Michigan 14 3.57 3.86 3.86 3.76
2 Ohio State 5 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.20
3 Penn State 3 4.00 3.33 3.67 3.67
4 Michigan State 4 1.75 3.25 3.35 2.75
5 Notre Dame 2 2.50 3.50 4.00 3.33
6 Nebraska 2 4.00 2.50 3.00 3.17
7 Wisconsin 1 1.00 3.00 3.00 2.33
8 Minnesota 1 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.67
9 Illinois 1 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.33
10 Indiana 0 - - - -
11 Iowa 0 - - - -
12 Northwestern 0 - - - -
13 Purdue 0 - - - -

^The average of the average rankings of the three recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as one-star players. This may be a bit unfair this early in the process, considering there are many unevaluated recruits out there at this stage, but that's life.

On to the full data, after the jump.

Read more »

Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 2-5-12

By Ace — February 5th, 2012 at 5:29 PM — 27 comments
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Barring a late-breaking commitment—say, Alex Kozan—these are your final Big Ten recruiting rankings for the class of 2012. After Ohio State's late charge under Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes finish atop the rankings; Michigan is a relatively close second and from there it's a precipitous drop to Notre Dame and the rest of the Big Ten. You can find the previous edition of the rankings here—changes are not listed because there were far too many.

Chart? Chart:

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # Commits Rivals Avg Scout Avg ESPN Avg 24/7 Avg Avg Avg^
1 Ohio State 25 3.68 3.76 3.48 3.68 3.65
2 Michigan 25 3.56 3.64 3.36 3.56 3.53
3 Notre Dame 16 3.50 3.69 3.50 3.56 3.56
4 Michigan State 18 3.11 3.17 3.11 3.11 3.13
5 Nebraska 17 3.35 2.94 2.88* 3.29 3.12
6 Purdue 26 2.92 2.62 2.78* 2.88 2.80
7 Iowa 24 2.92 2.71 2.63* 2.92 2.75
8 Penn State 19 2.79 2.95 2.58 3.11 2.86
9 Northwestern 20 2.90 2.85 2.60 2.85 2.80
10 Wisconsin 12 3.08 3.08 2.92 3.25 3.08
11 Indiana 25 2.72 2.52 2.39* 2.60 2.56
12 Minnesota 27 2.70 2.37 2.12* 2.63 2.46
13 Illinois 19 2.74 2.63 2.16 2.63 2.54

*ESPN doesn't rate JuCos, so they are counted as unranked recruits for the sake of consistency (trust me, it makes sense when you look at the spreadsheet).
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

On to the full data, after the jump.

Read more »

Where MIchigan's 2012 Class Will Rank on Scout

By WolverineBlue — January 24th, 2012 at 2:02 AM — 20 comments
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Signing day is fast approaching and anticipation is rising to fever pitch. So where will Michigan's 2012 class wind up ranked? I thought I would do a little prognosticating with a heavy dose of disclaimers. This analysis is based only on Scout, since they provide the most visibility into their ranking system. Their scoring system is somewhat arbitrary (maybe even a little silly?) and the final rankings are not profoundly meaningful, as I'm sure we all know. Still, we are just trying to have a little fun here as we bide our time ever so impatiently.

Also, I am referencing their "Commitment Tracker" which contains information some may classify as dubious. The finalist lists are somewhat suspect, and the predictions of the two analysts are arguable (some of the picks are from outside the finalist lists). So, take it all with a mountain of salt and let's have at it!

Here are the current top 10(ish):

Rank School Commits Points
1 Alabama 27 4709
2 Texas 24 4583
3 Ohio State 23 4075
4 Michigan 23 4074
5 Florida 20 3691
6 Miami (Fl) 31 3460
7 LSU 21 3319
8 Notre Dame 17 3217
9 South Carolina 24 3163
t10. Florida State 16 3039
t10. UCLA 25 3039

So how might this change from now to Signing Day? Let's focus first on Michigan's prospects. Here are the most likely additions to the class and the number of points they would add to Michigan's point total:

Recruit Points
Joshua Garnett 298
Jordan Diamond 296
Armani Reeves 217
Alex Kozan 131
Sam Grant 96

So if Michigan were able to bring in the mother lode and sign all of these prospects, it would push their total points to 4810 (counting only top 25) and move them into the #1 slot! (if nobody else signed anyone). Of course, it is highly unlikely that Michigan will strike pure gold while everyone else strikes out, so let's look at this a bit more realistically.

It does seem likely that the Maize and Blue will add to their current commitments and a jump of 600 points or more is not out of the question. So which schools would be in a position to finish above them? This will depend on whether the other schools have roster space to add more scholarship players and how likely they are to land additional blue chips.

On the subject of how they might close, I considered how many prospects in the Scout 300 they are considered finalists for. I also make note of who at least one Scout analyst thinks they lead for. Of course, they could also sign additional players outside the top 300 and each such player would add about 75-125 points to their total. Let's look at each contender.

Alabama- With 27 commits, they can only add one more at most? (I may be mistaken, but I believe the SEC is planning to limit schools to 28 this year). They are in the running for 6 top prospects and are projected by at least one analyst to lead for two: Eddie Goldman (worth 298 points) and Dalvin Tomlinson (209). The Tide will be tough to roll.

Texas - I'm not sure how much room they have beyond their 24 commits, but they are finalists for 4 top prospects and lead for one: Dalton Santos (215). Michigan could pass them if the Longhorns come up short.

Ohio State - There is some question as to whether the Buckaroos are already over the scholarship limit. We will have to see whether or not that is an Urban myth. They are listed as a finalist for 7 top prospects and are said to lead for 2: Armani Reeves (fergodsakes no!) and Kyle Dodson (207). Assuming they stay within their limits, it would seem Michigan has a good chance to pass them up in the final rankings.

Florida - The Gators, at 20 commits, may have available space (or not; available scholarship info is hard to come by and I'm not going to turn a fun little exercise into a major research project). They are finalists for 8 top prospects and are projected to lead for two: Stefon Diggs (299) and Nelson Agholor (217). Still, Michigan should have a big enough cushion to avoid becoming gator bait.

Miami (YTM) - The Hurricanes already have 31 commits so (wait, what?!) so I really don't know what to make of that. They are listed as a finalist for 5 top prospects and projected leader for one: Tyriq McCord (208). If Miami passes Michigan in the final rankings it's time to open up yet another NCAA investigation.

LSU - Listed as a finalist for 3 top prospects and a leader for none; highly unlikely to close the gap with the good guys.

Notre Dame - Not known for oversigning, the home stretch for the Irish may be limited by available slots. They are on the finalist list of 9 top prospects but the Scout guys don't see them landing any of them. Barring unforeseen leprauchan chicanery, likely to remain behind Michigan.

South Carolina - With 24 commits in the fold, only 2 top prospects on the radar (with no projected signings) and a sizeable gap, they Gamecocks are unlikely to rise in the pecking order.

Florida State - The Seminoles are the real wild card with only 16 current commits and 9 top prospects in the wings. Four are predicted signees: Ronald Darby (300), Eddie Goldman (298), Jameis Winston (299), and Tracy Howard (298). With the ACC apparently determined to win the oversigning cup, Florida State seems to be the team most likely to close strongly. It's even possible they could jump MIchigan, but I wouldn't stick a spear in that.

UCLA - With a class of 25 already, and no projected signings among the blue chippers, the Bruins are too far back to maul Michigan in the rankings.

The Rest - Everyone else is most likely too far back, point-wise, to threaten Michigan's final class ranking. Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Georgia, Auburn and Stanford may be candidates for a strong closing stretch.

Conclusion:

Well I hope we all had fun and are not taking this too seriously. Anyway, there is actually an outside chance that, if all the planets align properly, Michigan's recruiting class could finish with the top ranking on Scout. More likely. a third place finish seems about right. I highly doubt we could drop below the #5 spot. The one thing we can almost certainly predict is that there will be some surprises. We will all know soon enough.

Edit: - I corrected the point values associated with each recruit caused by a slight misunderstanding of Scout's formula. It was mostly just a point or two adjustment upward. More importantly, as elaydin points out, Scout only counts the top 25 recruits, so I made that adjustment as well.

Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings 1-22-12

By Ace — January 22nd, 2012 at 2:04 PM — 44 comments
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The recruiting rankings are front-paged this week as we have a change at the top. Unfortunately, you probably know the change, and you're almost certainly not going to like it: Ohio State jumps Michigan after picking up four recruits (and the Wolverines losing Caleb Stacey, though that wouldn't have mattered in terms of the standings). Otherwise, the team rankings hold steady as we near signing day. Action since last rankings:

1-15-12: Taylor Decker changes commitment from Notre Dame to Ohio State. Illinois picks up T.J. Neal.
1-16-12: Penn State picks up Jordan Lucas.
1-17-12: Ohio State picks up Joey O'Connor. Gunner Kiel changes commitment from LSU to Notre Dame. Minnesota picks up Roland Johnson.
1-18-12: Ohio State picks up David Perkins. Minnesota picks up K.J. Maye.
1-20-12: Camren Williams changes commitment from Penn State to Ohio State.
1-21-12: Caleb Stacey changes commitment from Michigan to Cincinnati. Nebraska picks up LeRoy Alexander. Zach Jackson changes commitment from Illinois to TCU. Illinois picks up Justin Hardee. Minnesota picks up Ben Lauer.

Chart? Chart:

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # Commits Rivals Avg Scout Avg ESPN Avg 24/7 Avg Avg Avg^
1 Ohio State 23 3.70 3.74 3.43 3.61 3.62
2 Michigan 23 3.57 3.65 3.39 3.57 3.54
3 Notre Dame 17 3.53 3.76 3.53 3.59 3.60
4 Wisconsin 12 3.33 3.33 3.17 3.50 3.33
5 Penn State 14 3.07 3.14 3.07 3.21 3.13
6 Michigan State 14 3.14 3.14 3.00 3.07 3.09
7 Iowa 18 3.00 2.94 2.83* 2.83 2.90
8 Nebraska 12 3.41 2.92 2.90* 3.33 3.14
9 Purdue 25 2.92 2.48 2.72* 2.76 2.72
10 Northwestern 20 2.75 2.65 2.55 2.65 2.65
11 Indiana 23 2.65 2.48 2.38* 2.43 2.49
12 Illinois 14 2.71 2.71 2.50 2.57 2.63
13 Minnesota 28 2.68 2.29 1.92* 2.25 2.28

*ESPN doesn't rate JuCos, so they are counted as unranked recruits for the sake of consistency (trust me, it makes sense when you look at the spreadsheet).
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

On to the full data, after the jump.

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