this guy evidently hired to work for AD
OK, this isn't a hard-core statistical analysis like the Mathlete would do, just some fun with numbers. We have a rather bipolar team this year (Offense #5 in TO, Defense #105 in TD), and I thought it would be interesting to look at what our opponents' Total Offense and Total Defense stats would look like if they hadn't played us - and what kind of a difference it would make in their overall ranking of NCAA stats.
The NCAA stats are not linear, of course, and a difference of 1 yd/gm can be a large or small difference in rankings depending on how closly spaced everyone is. So as I cautioned, this isn't a hard-core statistical exercise. It is interesting to look back at the early games and see how well we did in comparison to what other teams ended up doing against them - what seemed like a good or bad performance at the time may look different in retrospect.
Part the First: Offense
We know our offense is great, but what kind of damage has it done to the Total Defense (TD) ratings of our opponents? Here they are thus far:
|Opponent||Games||Yards Yielded||Yds/gm||NCAA Rank|
What would these guys' defensive stats look like if they hadn't played Michigan?
|Opponent||Total Offense, M||
Opp. Avg - M,
M Total Offense,
*Opponents' average Total Defense yards per game, minus the Michigan game
**Michigan's Total Offense in game as a % of the opponent's average TD minus the Michigan game
So Michigan has gained above our opponents' average yardage yielded in every game thus far, and their TD ranking has suffered as a result. What's the damage?
|Opponent||TD Rank With M||TD Rank Without M||Difference|
Average change in Total Defense ranking for all opponents: -10.1 places.
Part the Second, Defense
So the flipside of this, then, is how much has our defensive suckitude helped out our opponents stat sheet? Where would they rank in TO without having played us? We'll run the same tables again, but from the opposite tack:
|Opponent||Games||Yards Gained||Yds/gm||NCAA Rank|
First thing that jumps out at me is that none of these are world-beater offenses thus far. They're functional and solid for the most part, but even the best is merely above average. We can't really blame our bad defensive performances on having come up against a bunch of awesome offenses. Anyway, how'd they do against us?
|Total Offense, Opp||
Opp. Avg - M,
Opp Total Offense,
% of Opp Avg - M**
* Opponents average offensive performance, minus the Michigan game
** Opponents TO as a percentage of their average offensive performance, minus the Michigan game
|Opponent||TO Rank With M||TO Rank Without M||Difference|
Average boost to opponents' Total Offense NCAA ranking: +7.1 places
So we've had four really bad defensive outings (ND, Ind., MSU, Ill.) and a four decent ones (UConn, Iowa, PU, BG). The PSU game doesn't look so bad from this perspective - still not good, but far from our worst outing when compared to others.
Part the Third: Summary
Michigan's O Difference
on Opp TD Ranking
Michigan's D Difference
on Opp TO Ranking
|Connecticut||-10||+1||W, Good O, OK D|
|Notre Dame||-10||+19||W, Good O, Terrible D|
|Bowling Green||-17||0||W, Awesome O, OK D|
|Indiana||-11||+14||W, Good O, Terrible D|
|Michigan State||-1||+16||L, OK O, Terrible D|
|Iowa||-10||-2||L, Good O, OK D|
|Penn State||-8||+4||L, Good O, Bad D|
|Illinois||-20||+14||W, Awesome O, Terrible D|
|Purdue||-4||-2||W, OK O, OK D|
Takeaways from these numbers (as opposed to other numbers or observations):
- We played well at Iowa and were beaten by a better team.
- We played badly against MSU on both sides of the ball; they might have beaten us anyway with good performances, but not likely.
- The loss to PSU doesn't look like such a bad outing from this angle. Maybe PSU is better than we gave them credit for.
- Awesome offense wins, terrible defense doesn't necessarily lose.
- Our offense is better at offending than our defense is bad at defending.
- Winning is more fun than losing.
So it has been interesting reading about Cam Newton's potential cheating problems and character issues. We'll see how this plays out.
My question is whether or not this will have an impact on the MNC. More specifically, I could easily see that this might take a long time to come to a resolution. Into 2011, at least. Knowing this, would the guys behind the curtain who pull the strings allow Auburn into the MNC? Options would be to let Auburn play, then deal with it after the truth comes out. Or, to blackball Auburn, so as not to have to deal with this possibility. Not a pleasant place to be.
SIAP, didn't see this amid the deluge of MGoMembers servicing Denard...
I know, it's just a blogger. But then again, kinda cool to see us at the top of a poll...
I'd like to find out how the offensive lines stack up in the Big Ten for this coming Fall. A ranking from 1 through 11 would be good. I'm also curious on how many starting offensive lineman MSU lost from last year's team. Thanks to all in advance.
Man, can't remember a year with only 2 players ranked in the top 250, and none in the top 98. I don't like to delve too much into rankings, there are outliers etc...but overall I want more higher ranked players!
Cullen Christian 99
Devin Gardner 132
How he goes from #1 overall QB to #8 is beyond me. I have only heard good things about him in the all star games. Yeah, maybe he wasn't lights out, but to drop him this much seems like alot.
Torrian Wilson dropped out
Dior Mathis 177
As mentioned earlier Gholston got fifth star and is 21 overall.
Don't want to get ahead of myself here, and I appologize if this has been discussed already, but I was looking at the Jeff Sagarin computer rankings (part of bcs formula) and note that Michigan is in at number 20.
This is significant because this early in the season both formulas used are Bayesian (meaning there is an element of expectation from previous season and previous games that factors in). Eventually, all teams will be connected by playing (not sure which week), but that should give Michigan an automatic bump in computers if we keep winning because we had to have low expectations coming into the season (currently draggin us down now - i.e. Oklahoma State is still ahead of us).
Also a drag is that ND is ranked 33 in Sagarin, which means that we need them to beat the Spartans so that we can get an increase in points for beating a top 30. (Sparties are a long way from breaking into the top 30).