alternate headline: man does job
Got the following info in an email from the Chicago Alumni Association. I went last year (http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/chicago-aaum-football-preview-recap) and had a great time. I definitely recommend the event and I'll see you there
2014 Michigan Football Season Preview with Brian Cook (MGoBlog) and Chris Balas (TheWolverine/Rivals.com)- NEW
When: Tuesday, July 29th, 6:00pm - 8:00pm
Where: McGuireWoods LLP, 77 West Wacker Dr, Suite 4100, (map)
Cost: $20 for Alumni Association members; $30 for non-members. Pay at the door for $30 with Cash or Credit Card
Details: Join fellow alumni and several special guest speakers as we preview the 2014 Michigan Football season. During the evening, alums will be joined by Chris Balas from TheWolverine/Rivals.com, Brian Cook from MGoBlog.com and others to be confirmed. You'll get insights on the upcoming season and an opportunity to ask your questions. There will be appetizers and complimentary beer & wine available for those in attendance.
Walk-ups will be available for cash or credit card of $30 day of the event.
Register/Contact: To buy a ticket, click here. If you have any questions, email David Ingmire at [email protected]
Club Trillion (Former OSU Walk-on Mark Titus) has written up his B1G Basketball preview.
He makes the case that the B1G is an Elite Bball conference despite the fact that the B1G hasn't won a National Title since 2000 (that was a clean block!)
He thinks McGary is over-hyped, GRIII is going to be the best pro, and Spike is awesome. His anti-Michigan bias comes through a bit, but in general it's a good read. I'm hoping that McGary can be tournament McGary for the year, but we'll see what happens moving forward.
having already equalled their 2011-2012 win total at 2-8…and…well…they aren’t good at basketball.
6-4 freshman shooting guard Jordan Reed paces the bearcats with 18 points per game. He also paces them with 10 rebounds, shooting 46% from the field. Truth be told, stop him and you’ve beaten Binghamton.
6ft senior point guard Jimmy Gray leads the team in assists with 4/game, and is second in scoring at 10 points per game, shooting 33% from the field and 27% from deep(8 attempts/game).
6-1 junior guard Rayner Moquete chips in with 7 points shooting 36% from the field and 34% from deep(4 attempts/game).
6-1 junior guard KJ Brown contributes 5 points on 30% shooting, 21% from deep(2 attempts/game).
6-7 senior forward Taylor Johnston leads the frontcourt scoring an efficient 7 points/game and pulls down 4 boards shooting 54% from the field and a scorching 54% from deep(3 attempts/game).
6-8 junior forward Ronald Brown is also a major contributor in the post, adding 8 points and 5 boards, shooting 50% from the field.
6-8 junior forward Alex Ogundadegbe( Oh gun Dad! Egg be! )
(M R Piders M R. C D E D B D I’s.) will drop 4 points and 3 rebounds on you in a heartbeat…or in a game, shooting 45%, but whatevs.
That’s basically the rotation.
Let’s take a look at their last 5 games. Binghamton lost to Bryant 78-56. They were outrebounded by 9 and outshot by 12%. Monmouth beat them 77-65 by hitting on 10% more of their attempts. Mt. St. Mary’s squeaked out a 71-70 win when Binghamton lost the turnover battle by 12(yeah, Binghamton turns over the ball a lot…not good at basketball remains the general theme). Binghamton lost to Pennsylvania 65-54 despite grabbing 10 more boards than the quakers. Penn went 10-25 from deep(40%).
Binghamton beat Marywood of the Colonial States Athletic Conference 76-51, outrebounding them by 20 and outshooting the pacers by 14%.
So what does this mean for Michigan? Well...Binghamton is going to turn over the ball...a lot. Michigan is going to outrebound Binghamton...but not by a ton. Michigan is going to outshoot Binghamton by about 15%.
I've got Michigan 95-55. This should not be a challenge.
Didn't see this posted and I always enjoy reading Paul's stuff at Pre-Snap Read. If you've never read the blog, he counts down teams until the season starts. WMU checks in at 71 and has some good info on who to watch, etc.
So Brian always comes up with funny "win will cause me to:" statements
What are your best "win over OSU will cause me to"s?
WIN will cause me to: stay up for all of next week and trawl OSU blogs while hoping the collective
disbelief of the 100,000+ truck drivers sucks the entire city into the 12th plane of torment soon after M fans leave.
A look at Michigan’s opening opponent through the eyes of PAN*.
When Michigan Rushes
Let’s kick the season off with a nice chart, Michigan Rush Offense PAN vs. UConn
Last year the gap between the two was worth nearly two points a game and this year it is projecting to narrow slightly. This projection is probably on the pessimistic side for Michigan as UConn has four consecutive years of decline on rush defense and nothing would indicate that Michigan would see a drop versus last season’s performance on the ground.
Since Rodriguez had experience against UConn while at West Virginia, those matchups provide another, better data point of comparison. In four games from 2004-2007 West Virginia averaged 6 PAN/game offensively and UConn averaged 0 PAN/game defensively. In other words, West Virginia’s ground game average 6 points per game more than the average team that played UConn and the Huskies defended the Mountaineers about on par with the average team.
Based on both West Virginia and Michigan experience, the numbers indicate that Michigan should have an opportunity to do some damage on the ground on Saturday.
When Michigan Passes
Michigan was pretty average passing the ball last year but UConn wasn’t great at covering the pass. The historical numbers are a bit all over the map, the Huskies had a 10 point negative swing from 2008 to 2009.
UConn returns a lot of their defense from last year but the one position group that will be replacing players is the secondary. In 2009 the team had to deal with the midseason murder of starting cornerback Jasper Howard, putting a little perspective on the mostly on-field issues Michigan’s secondary has faced. Of the top 11 UConn players in points taken last year, the only three not returning this year are cornerback Robert McClain, 25 PT, 2nd on team and first among DBs, DE Lindsey Witten, 20 PT, 4th on team and first among DL and S Robert Vaughn, 15 PT and 2nd among DBs.
With the year to year variance these two teams have shown in passing and defending the pass, it is difficult to tell who will pick up the advantage when Michigan puts the ball in the air.
When UConn Runs
Michigan saw their first dip into negative PAN against the run last year, while UConn is coming off back to back strong seasons on the ground.
The UConn running back situation is one where PAN sheds an interesting light that is hidden by tradition stats. Last year UConn split the carries almost evenly between Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon (235 vs 239). Todman ran for 1188 yards and 14 TDs while Dixon had 1093 yards and 14 TDs as well. Despite those very similar stat lines, Todman’s performance was worth 16 points and Dixon’s nearly offset the gains with –15 points.
Unfortunately for Michigan Todman is back and Dixon is gone. The historical trend indicates that Michigan should have the advantage, but with a quality back in Todman returning, Michigan will need a much improved defense performance to limit the UConn rushing attack.
When UConn Passes
After a dreadful stretch through the air in 2005-2008, UConn bounced back last year with their best showing in five years.
UConn has two QB’s with starting experience coming back. Cody Endres who took over in mid-season after an injury, was a modest 1.1 PAN whereas this year’s starter Zach Frazer was a worse –1.5 PAN in action at the beginning and end of the season. Frazer posted a similar –1.6 in 4 games in 2008.
Despite the higher value, Frazer beat out Endres again for the job this season and Endres went on to get suspended for the opener, leaving UConn with the sole experienced QB for Michigan. Unfortunately, Michigan’s secondary will make this matchup interesting, but at least the Huskies are able to trot out a world beater at QB even if he does have 2 years of experience.
History in Openers
When factoring in quality of opponent, Michigan best two games of the Rodriguez era have been the openers. 2008 felt very disappointing at the time, but taking an eventually undefeated and Alabama crushing Utah team to the wire, was the best performance of the season. 2009 saw a much much weaker opponent in Western Michigan, but the utter dismantling Michigan displayed made the 2009 the highest rated game Rodriguez had at Michigan to date. Success in openers had been the norm for Rodriguez at West Virginia. 3 of his last 4 were double digit PAN and two were over 20.
UConn’s sample size is much smaller. 3 of the last 7 years they have opened with 1AA opponents and the four years have seen performance within 5 points or so of average.
Head to Head
In the last four meetings Rodriguez and West Virginia owned UConn. West Virginia average a PAN of 13 while UConn came in at –5 PAN. Even after giving the Huskies a break for how good West Virginia was for several years, they still did worse than average against them.
The 2007 game is a bit of anomaly on this chart. It looks like UConn outplayed West Virginia but the Mountaineers completely dominated the Huskies in the game. The PAN is off because two first half fumbles by UConn meant the offense didn’t have to do much heavy lifting to build a 17 point lead after the first drive of the second half. A 17 point lead means that the plays stop counting towards the PAN, but WVU just kept going. To the tune of nearly 400 yards, 29 PAN all after they already had a 17 point lead. So in other words, 2007 looks like a good performance by UConn, but in reality a couple fluke plays got them in a hole and once they were there, West Virginia buried them.
The All In Look
The history is on Michigan’s side, the two year trend is on Michigan’s side, the strength in openers is on Michigan’s side, the head to head coaching matchup is on Michigan’s side and with homefield, I have Michigan pegged at about a touchdown favorite with about a 75% chance of starting the year off in the win column.
*PAN is calculated by assigning every play a value based on how much the play helped or hurt the offense’s chances of scoring. Every down, distance and line of scrimmage combination is assigned an expected value, the average points scored across college football in that same situation. If a play increases the expected value, the respective teams and players are credited with the amount of increase.
All plays are then adjusted based on strength of opponent. Plays against weak opponents are penalized and downgraded while plays against strong opponents are bumped to reflect the degree of difficulty.
Only games against FBS (D1A) opponents, games against FCS (1AA) opponents are non-existent in any numbers used in this work.
Qualifying Plays (QP) are all plays in the first half and plays in the second half when the game is within two touchdowns. End of half run out the clock drives are also excluded.