predictions

Over at Eleven Warriors, Phil Steele gives a long interview on his process of ranking teams, along with his take on Ohio, Michigan, and the rest of the Big 10. It is a fascinating read, and gives a sense of why Steele does such a good job of predicting. (LINK:  http://www.elevenwarriors.com/2012/07/12344/12-0-is-a-possibility-chatting-with-phil-steele#more)

Of greatest interest here are his comments on Michigan. Here are a few quotes:

 Last season, Brady Hoke and the Wolverines were one of the bigger success stories in the country. Do you think that can be sustained?  

Phil Steele:  Last year, Michigan had the best case scenario. Going 11-2, that’s about as good as it can get. When you look at things a little bit closer, the bowl game (against Virginia Tech)for example, they got out first-downed 22-12, outgained 377-184, but at the end of the game, they ended up winning.

You look at the Notre Dame game, heading into the fourth quarter you’re thinking Notre Dame is going to win by 24 points. They completely dominated the game and then ended up coming up short when Denard Robinson had a touchdown pass in the final seconds.

This year the schedule gets a little bit tougher. I do think this season’s team is a little bit stronger if they can get the defensive line going.

I just don’t think they’ll overachieve like they did last year.

I have them as an underdog against Alabama, a slight underdog at Notre Dame, an underdog at Nebraska and an underdog at Ohio State. That doesn’t mean they’ll lose all of them, but I think their odds of getting 11 wins are a little more difficult.

There is more in the interview on Michigan, but you can only quote so much. The whole piece is very good. Interestingly, Eleven Warriors predicts that Michigan will beat Alabama (although, Steele begs to differ, and thinks it would be quite an upset.)

I'd like to piggyback off the topic that is two spots down.  Please humor me and post your very specific prediction for next year's football season.  It does not have to do with our record at all, but let us revisit this thread a year from now to see who may have their precognition hats on today.  Perhaps the person with the most specific and accurate prediction will be treated to a round of miniature golf by THE KNOWLEDGE, one in which THE KNOWLEDGE writes out the scorecard prior to the round, just to let his tagalong know who runs this stuff.  I'll start:

Mark Dantonio will blow the MSU game.  He will do so by calling for a fake field goal slightly more than halfway through the 4th quarter, with the Spartans leading by less than a touchdown.  This field goal would have been a long attempt, and the down is 4th and 1 or 4th and 2.  Michigan chews up most of the clock and scores a touchdown to win the game. 

Bank on it.

1. What is the weirdest thing that will happen at the Michigan game today?

2. What is the biggest post-ISU upset of the week?

3. Which game will see the most ESPN highlights for a non-football reason, and what will that reason be?

4. Who will have the stupidest ProCombat type jersey of the day?

5. Will Taylor Martinez prove his critics wrong by realizing he is left handed, thus proving he doesn't actually throw like a girl?

6. What is the strangest thing that Les Miles does for the day?

The Question

It is a statement perpetuated on many outside of Wolverine-fandom in response to the 2010 start, and the deep dark fear inside the hearts of many Michigan fans: This year isn’t going to end up like last year, is it?

The argument for "Yes" usually boils down to the only teams Michigan has beat this year are the same ones they did last year (more or less) before the fallout, oh and because after five games we had a hyped young quarterback last year as well. The response from Michigan fans is subsequently, "Yeah, but Denard!!!"

Until we play a few more games and win one that we didn’t last year, we’re stuck answering the question in purely philosophical form. And who is better at throwing some numbers out there and seeing what sticks than The Mathlete?

The Methodology

Here is the normal disclaimer/overview of what I do for the uninformed:

All numbers included in this article are using my PAN metric: Points Above Normal. PAN is essentially how many points above an average FBS team was a team/unit/player worth. For reference, an average FBS team is approximately equal to Illinois or a top team from the MAC.

All games against FCS teams are excluded, as well as any plays in the second half where one team leads by more than 2 touchdowns or any end-of-half, run-out-the-clock drives.

For this particular exercise I will look at this year’s performance-to-date through two different lenses: 1) raw performance with no adjustment for opponent and 2) an opponent-adjusted view using how that opponent has performed this year to date. Normally I would forgo the unadjusted view to do a comparison but it is still early enough in the season that both views can provide perspective.

The Matchup: Offense

Let me just kill the suspense right now: this offense is better than last year’s. Shocking, I know. Through four FBS games this year, Michigan is averaging an unadjusted +23 PAN per game, +13 rushing and +10 passing. In the four FBS games Michigan won last year, Michigan was +12 overall, +8 rushing and +4 passing, and it’s pretty safe to say that UConn is a solid step up from Western Michigan and BG is probably a slight step up from Eastern.

To put more focus on the magnitude of this season's success, look at last week against Indiana, where the Michigan offense posted a +33 on only 44 plays. The 0.75 points per play is higher (by 10%!) than any other performance in my database, which stretches back to 2003. In fact, Indiana, Bowling Green and UConn are the three highest-rated offensive performances from Michigan I have on record. Western and Eastern Michigan were the only games last year that ranked higher than any game this year (Notre Dame is behind them).

Although impressive under any circumstances, those numbers were all without adjustment for the respective strengths of opponents' defenses. When you look at how Michigan’s performance compares with other offenses that ND, BG, Indiana and Uconn have faced this year, Michigan still comes out pretty well. All four games are at least +6 PAN and the average is +15, with +8 coming on the ground and +7 coming through the air. Last year in the comparable games, Michigan was +8 with +3 coming on the ground and +5 through the air.

Based on the sets of numbers, Michigan initially has been 7 to 11 points-per-game better than year’s offensive unit. This represents a very high level of play.

The Matchup: Defense

Unadjusted, Michigan has allowed +9 PAN per game this season. Almost all the damage has come through the air, and almost all of that was against Indiana. Excluding the Indiana game, the number was +6, with the damage split almost evenly between rush and pass defense. The Hoosiers' performance was +17 PAN with –5 on the ground and +22 through the air. This pushes the overall numbers to +9 with +8 coming through the air.

In the same games last year, Michigan’s defense was much more effective. Through four games, the defense held opponents to –7 PAN and was –6 against the pass. The defense moved to the middle through the rest of the season, finishing –2 PAN on the year, with –1 apiece coming on the ground and in the air.

How you evaluate this year really depends on good you think Indiana’s offense is going to be. If they continue to have success in Big 10 play, Michigan’s defensive prospects could be trending to on-par or slightly better than last year. If you think the Chappellbomb will be a dud against the rest of the Big 10, then last year’s performance is probably a best-case scenario.

One thing to consider about this defense is that its traditional stats are going to look bad no matter what. Based on the pace and success on the offensive side of the ball, Michigan is going to face more aggressive versions of their opponents, and they are going to face them on more drives, especially if the offense keeps scoring within the first minute of touching the ball. Everything you see from me will be adjusted to account for the pace. Remember: just because we gave up a ton of yards, it doesn’t mean that we had a bad day.

I am giving the defense an incomplete so far. Until we see how we fare against MSU and how Indiana does against Ohio State, the verdict is still out. If the defense can hold serve occasionally against Sparty, and Indiana can find some success against the Buckeyes, then the defense should at least be good enough to let us stretch a lead in a few games. If MSU torches us and Ohio St shuts down Chappell and Doss, we could be in for a full season of excruciatingly exciting games.

The Variables

Our health, especially at key offensive positions, remains good.

The offense remains highly potent against the top tier Big 10 defenses.

The Indiana game was more of a reflection on Indiana’s great passing attack, and not our poor pass defense.

The Verdict

Although it doesn’t look like the defense has progressed like we had hoped (or maybe at all), the dilithium-powered offensive quantum leap has moved this team well beyond last year’s. There are still plenty of question marks out there, but it looks like until we face Ohio State’s defense to end the regular season, a Denard-led offense should be the best unit on the field. That fact alone should make a 2009 like swoon all but impossible. How much better is a question of defensive progress and Denard’s ability to shine as the defenses get better.

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Continuing the threads I started last year, I bring you the second annual Last Chance to Looks Stupid. Predict Michigan's final record. Don't tell me who or how, just the numbers. Those who guess right win a prize. That prize is being commended later in the year as FA has no monetary power. [GB mod edit: WINNER GETS LOTS OF MGOPOINTS OMGZ]

Same rules apply:

Post W \ L only. Anything else will be moderated out. Your numbers should add up to 12 or 13 (requires W>=6). This thread will become read only at kick off on Saturday.

Happy crystal balling.

Update: Bowl W/L isn't a huge deal. We don't know who we would play. If you mark bowl win/loss, that shouldn't count against you.

What I think I'll be drinking during the season.

UConn: a real dry pale ale. Probably Caldera.

ND: Gin and Tonics

UMass: 9am on the west coast? Start with Bloody Mary's and then anything goes.

BGSU: A couple of growlers of something really, really hoppy.

Indiana: Kind of a bye week. My buddy is bringing his vaporizer.

MSU: Special order a case of Bell's Two Hearted

Iowa: Bourbon and more bourbon

PSU: Oct 30^th in Portland? Gonna be Stout weather.

Illinois: Imperial IPA's. A lot of them.

Purdue: Boilermakers

Wisconsin: Margaritas and cheap beer.

Ohio State: One of all the above!