Curtis Samuel declares for NFL Draft. Per the Twitters.
UM was also #3 on Dec 3.. Then Clemson rose above us in the national rankings. OSU fell below us after getting spanked by Clemson.
Why is UM ranked above OSU? Many posters here have already answered this question. 4 of OSU’s wins were by 4 points or less in regulation, while their losses were more than ten times the margin of UM’s (OSU 17 points, UM < 1.7).
Also, the advantage of UM over OSU is likely even greater. Why” Sagarin considers only the final score, not whether that score was reached in OT or regulation.
Yet, consider what happens to Sagarin’s game rating if we subtract (add) a ridiculously small one point for a double OT win (or loss). UM beats OSU both in the game and in the season’s overall W-L record.
Sagarin also does not consider the advantage (disadvantage) of an in-state (vs. distant) bowl game. But suppose that advantage is a mere one half of Sagarin’s correction (say, 1.05 points). Then UM’s home-field corrected record is
Not bad. In fact, it’s pretty amazing considering that UM had late season injuries to the starting QB, the best TE in the country, and their all-everything LB-PR-RB-Safety Heisman finalist.
3. PSU (pretty far below, so a win over #11 USC unlikely to change B1G ranking)
4. Wisc (even further below)
So I wanted to get a feel for what the board thinks in regards to B1G team(s) getting into the CFB.
In my opinion, if Penn St beats Wisconsin next week in the B1G Championship, I do not see them getting left out of the CFP. For one, they will have beaten Ohio St head-to-head (who is also fighting for a CFP spot) and a Top 10 Wisconsin team. Their two losses will have come to Pittsburgh (a solid 8-4 team that also beat Clemson) and Michigan on the road when they were dealing with a lot of injuries. Also, in the last few weeks they have annihilated Iowa (a team that might not be so mediocre after all getting big wins over Michigan and Nebraska) and MSU (a team that some believe is better than their record indicates and played both Michigan and Ohio St tough at least in terms of those games' final scores).
If Penn St were to win next week, I could easily see a similar fall out a la 2014 when TCU fell from #3 to #6 in the final rankings despite beating their opponent by 50ish points in the final week of the season. Only this time I can see Ohio St getting snubbed in a similar fashion, and it would be justified as a Penn St team that beat them and won their conference would go instead.
I think it also really comes down to what the committee thinks of Washington. If Clemson takes care of business next week, there is no way they are left out after beating Auburn, Louisville, and FSU and being led by Deshaun Watson. Win and in for them. However, the playoff committee has been skeptical of Washington much of the year, but if they win next week they will have blown out a good WSU and beaten a Top 10 Colorado team. Washington would finish the season at 12-1 with their lone loss coming to a Top 10ish USC that has been widely regarded as the hottest team in college football right now. So I do not see them getting left out of the playoff.
So here are the my predictions for several scenarios and I assume that Alabama takes care of business against Florida and that the BIG 12 is out.
Clemson, Washington win; Penn St wins the B1G:
- Penn St
- Ohio St
Maybe Ohio St gets in here instead of Washington.
Clemson, Washington win; Wisconsin wins the B1G:
- Ohio St/Clemson
- Clemson/Ohio St
In this case, Ohio State will get the nod for CFP as they beat Wisconsin head-to-head and finished the season with one less loss than UW.
EITHER Clemson OR Washington lose:
- Ohio St (if Wisconsin wins B1G)/Clemson OR Washington
- Clemson OR Washington/PSU (if B1G Champion)
- Wisconsin (if B1G Champion)/Ohio St (if PSU wins B1G)
- Clemson OR Washington
In this case, either Washington or Clemson (whichever team loses) would be knocked out of the playoff. This would make room for two B1G teams. If UW wins, they get the 4th spot and OSU gets the 2nd/3rd spot. If PSU wins, they get the 3rd spot, and OSU gets the 4th spot.
If Clemson and Washingotn both lose, then things are totally fucked so I won't go over that scenario. Maybe that makes room for Colorado, the BIG 12, or possibly Michigan.
So do you agree or disagree with me? Am I right about OSU/PSU or am I way off?
*Also, I am not a PSU apologist. I hate them as much as anybody, but I think they have a strong case for the CFP.
So, any big group of michigan fans out there in columbus the day of the game tailgaiting, how about anything the night before!? will be arriving the night before and friends will join morning of the game.
Let's get to know our upcoming opponent the Ohio State Buckeyes!
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In case you ever wondered how buckeyes were made....