Ohio and Oregon have scheduled a home & home in 2020-2021 per 11W. I know this is only slightly related to Michigan, just continues on the thought that Michigan should continue to schedule more matchups against non-directional-Dakota's.
MIchigan is the top team in the B1G according to The Sagarin poll. Below I list the PREDICTOR ratings--which are the best in actually predicting game outcomes. I also list the overall national rank according to these ratings.*
1. Michigan (#13 overall, rating 85.33)
2. Ohio (#18 overall, rating 83.15) INELIGIBLE for postseason
3. Neb (#23, rating 81.74)
4. Wisconsin (#27, rating 79.69)
5. PSU (#28, 79.64) ALSO INELIGIBLE for postseason
6. MSU (#36. 77.2)
One predicts the outcome of future games by subtracting the two Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (with + or -3 for Home Field). So, if we play Wisc in INDY for the B1G title, we should be favored by 5-6 points. If Ohio were not ineligible and Michigan played them in INDY, UM would beat Ohio. In Columbus, the game would be essentially a tossup (less than a one point margin). Also, Michigan would be favored over MSU by 8 points on a neutral field and by 11 points this coming week in Ann Arbor (+3 for home field).
I don't know what the Vegas point spread is, but I suspect that it will be smaller, since UM-MSU is a rivalry game.
*Michigan also is #1 when Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings are averaged with the ELO-CHESS ratings. The latter do not consider point margins and are not as good in predicting actual game outcomes. Regrettably, the overall BCS computer rankings use the ELO-CHESS Sagarin ratings--as well as other computer polls that often overweigh WL records and underweigh SOS. So, we will not do as well when the BCS computer rankings come out. However, I do not believe that any of these alternative ranks has been shown to do as well as the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings in forecasting actual game outcomes. And that's what's important in predicting the rest of the UM season.
During our bye week/wife week, Ohio is playing against Michigan State. These are our two most important opponents and rivals. I still feel numb after the tire fire in South Bend, and haven't posted in days. What can you say?
However, life goes on, so here are three simple questions:
- Who do you want to win: Ohio or Michigan State?
- Who do you think will actually win: Ohio or Michigan State?
- Who winning benefits Michigan the most: Ohio or MSU?
It is harder for me to answer these questions than usual. I have a certain malaise such that I really don't care right now. More than that, there are many and varied reasons I dislike both of them, and don't care for either to win. The bye week is good for me personally, because I don't want to watch any college football this weekend.
The answer to the questions is the same for me: I want Ohio to win, think they will win, and if they win, it benefits Michigan because Michigan State has a loss against them, affecting who wins our division. I don't think Maxwell will perform any better against Ohio's defense than he did against ND, and I think Braxton Miller may just be good enough to score against Michigan State's defense. I do believe the matchup between Michigan State's defense and Ohio's offense (especially Braxton) is the key to the game.
I heard this awhile back about Stoneburner making the switch to wider reciever. I figured someone else would have posted on it already, but in a simple site search I didn't find anything and I noticed in Todays 2012 Recruiting: Devin Funchess, Brian compares these two guys. General consesus from the
douchebags Ohio fans that I know is that he was their best receiving threat anyway, so not sure how significant this is, especially with the way the ex-Florida coach tends to use his tight ends.
Anyway, here's a link on the Stoneburner thing.*
*Takes you to a crappy website, FWIW
A new Public Policy Polling survey found that former Ohio coach Jim Tressel is viewed more favorably among Buckeye fans than current coach Urban Meyer.
Sixty-five percent of OSU fans said they had a favorable opinion of Tressel, who resigned in the wake of an NCAA scandal involving the football program. Just 14 percent have a negative impression of Tressel, the poll found.
By contrast, 60 percent of Buckeye fans said they have a favorable opinion of Meyer. Two percent have an unfavorable opinion of the former Florida coach, who's yet to coach a single game in Columbus.
That said, Meyer slightly edges Tressel on the question of which coach Ohio fans would rather have coach their team. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they would prefer Meyer, versus 33 percent who would want Tressel.
The automated poll, conducted Aug. 9-12, has a 3.16 percent margin of error.
Though I was disappointed with the decision to move Thanksgiving to the Thursday BEFORE the Michigan-Ohio game, it is now the way things are and I have made peace with the new normal. That being said, I wanted to bring up the three scenarios under which The Game could be played now that there is an actual B1G championship game, instead of The Game acting as proxy.
Dave Brandon had said, when it was announced that Michigan and Ohio would be in separate B1G divisions, something to the effect of “The only thing better than playing the Ohio game would be playing it twice.” For Brandon, this stems from the idea of increased brand proliferation. Though for fans this is supposed to stem from the idea of being able to beat Ohio twice in the same season. While this would seem to be incredibly gratifying, it ultimately breaks down functionally. If the same team wins both games then what was the point of the rematch? If the series is split, then what was proven on the field? See 2011-2012 Alabama/LSU and SEC ad absurdum.
Let us take a step back however and examine the three scenarios. They are:
- Michigan and Ohio enter The Game with each team having no chance of reaching the B1GCG. While this likely means more joy in Madison, Lincoln, or East Lansing than Ann Arbor, the effect on The Game is minimal. Though neither team controls its own destiny, the usual grudge match applies and the victor will revel in adulation while the loser suffers the humiliations of another year of failure. This is the scenario of the 2011 Game.
- Michigan and Ohio enter The Game with at least one team having a chance to secure a spot in the B1GCG. This scenario sees the grudge match in its more traditional role of having a great impact on trips to Pasadena and B1G championships. Again, the victor will enjoy spoils and the loser sees another season spoiled. If both teams need the win to secure a spot in the B1GCG, the intensity could be even more pronounced than usual. This is a scenario similar to the 2006 Game but with the immediate implications regarding the B1GCG rather than the BCSMNCG.
- Both Michigan and Ohio are already guaranteed their spot in the B1GCG. This is the scenario that Brandon supposedly thinks would be so great though I suggest it is sad and superfluous. The Game would not be The Game, next week's Game is the real Game. The rematch will determine the B1G champion while the first version will determine nothing. It is simply a qualifying heat and it isn’t even that since the qualifying has already been accomplished. Is there truly value in beating Ohio twice when once is all that would be needed? Why risk injury? Why risk spoiling a perhaps undefeated season for a game that is functionally meaningless? Think about that - The Game being functionally meaningless. Now perish the thought.
Ways around this sad situation include moving The Game to earlier in the season, and changing the conference alignment. In my next entry I will propose a new conference alignment. Thanks for reading.