"Rodrick Williams Jr.'s 10-month old, 2-foot-long savannah monitor named "Kill" gets the RB some strange looks when they go for walks together."
Maizenbrew has an interesting discussion between Drew Hallett and Anthony Broom on the chances of our Wolverines beating either the Spartans or the Buckeyes this year:
Their conclusion is that Michigan will not do it. They look at recent history, talent/matchups, home field advantage, general Harbaughness, etc. I would like to respectfully disagree with their conclusion. I think the general randomness of college football means that we can reasonably expect to savor an upset over a hated rival this year. I won’t go full Mathlete on you, but my reasoning is based on probability.
We’ve all become conditioned to expect the worst kind of luck persistently. When was the last time Michigan had a favorable turnover ratio? When was the last time turnovers broke even or better against a top 20 opponent? (The first B1G Michigan-Nebraska game? Yeah, it has been that long.) Even during the glory years, we all knew that in any given season Michigan was likely to have one “say what?!” loss against a clearly weaker team. When was the last time a top 20 team had an “off day” against us? Yeah, it’s been that long. My point being that luck changes season to season, game to game, or even play to play. (2011) To use the language of probability, football plays are independent variables. We don’t know what normal luck feels like anymore against MSU or OSU, but that can change in a moment.
To add some numbers to it, let me use one of the NOT fun facts from the article. Drew pointed out that Michigan is 2-12 in the last seven seasons’ worth of games with MSU & OSU. (Combine that with Michigan’s recent history in Bowl games, and the whole fan base heads for the rest room, but I digress…) Let’s apply a little probability analysis. Suppose that all seven years both the Spartans and the Buckeyes were clearly superior, such that they had an 80% chance of winning any given game. I don’t think it was near that bad, certainly not in some seasons, but let’s go with the pessimistic case to illustrate the point. If you apply math to these numbers, Michigan still should have won 3 games or more (55% of the time). Even assuming we stunk, we still should have gotten lucky more often than two times.
Turning to this season, we may not know exactly when or how the ball bounces in our favor, but the odds are reasonably good it will decisively bounce in our favor in one of those two games. (To use another illustration, Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as National Champions. They will be favored in each and every one of their games, possibly excepting a playoff match-up. What is the chance someone other than OSU actually wins the Championship? Yes, a lot more than 50%.) Again, assume that this season the Spartans and the Buckeyes are clearly superior. Even if that is as much as a 70% chance, Michigan still has a 50% chance of winning one of those games (0.7 squared).
So I’m saying there’s a chance; a mathematically significant chance.
I know this is all with a grain of salt but interesting to take a look at the talent on the opposition. Mel has 6 OSU players ranked in the top 26 of next year's draft with Bosa 1 overall. Cardale Jones is listed as 25 which totally could be way off if he doesn't start this year. Interesting State has two, Conklin OT (#12) and Cook QB (#15), in the top 15 of the draft. I had no clue MSU had a near top ten offensive lineman on the roster. Also sad to see a couple near M recruiting hits (Treadwell and Cravens) on the list.
Ohio State's Women's Hockey coach today resigned in disgrace due to a report detailing sexual harassment of players.
I was perusing USCHO.com and noticed there is an article about Ohio State hockey, which got me thinking: why does Ohio State continue to sponsor hockey/why has the team not been dissolved? This might seem crazy, but here me out:
Ohio State does not draw very many fans to its games, and let's be real the fans do not care about hockey. Hockey is not engrained in the culture and there has been no effort for hockey to be important.
Ohio State has had hockey since 1963 and has made only ONE Frozen Four. Yes, ONE (1998.) Surely for a school of the size of Ohio State, it should be able to make more than ONE Frozen Four. For reference, other major D1 schools with hockey include Michigan and BC (24 Frozen Fours), BU and Minnesota (21 each), Wisconsin (12), MSU (11), and Harvard (12). Ohio State, from 1971-2013, won only ONE CCHA regular season title...in the first year (71-72)...which they shared with now defunct St. Louis. In that time period, St. Louis, Michigan, Michigan State, Miami, Bowling Green, Ferris State, Notre Dame (which also has been surprisingly bad until recently), and Northern Michigan all managed to win more than one CCHA title. Only Western Michigan had been in the CCHA for a similar amount of time and not win a CCHA title. OSU also only won TWO ever CCHA Playoffs, in 72 and 04. Again, in that time period, Michigan, MSU, Notre Dame, Lake Superior State, Bowling Green, St. Louis, and Northern Michigan managed to win the same (ND) or more titles. They have never won an NCAA title game, let alone appeared in one. In that time Michigan, MSU, Northern Michigan, Bowling Green, and Lake Superior State all won national titles while even Notre Dame, Miami, and Ferris State appeared in national title games.
Overall what I am getting at is OSU is bad at hockey. But my question is: why? Is it purely because nobody there cares about hockey. Even then, why do they keep it up? Surely it can't be profitable, is it just because they want to at least field the same team Michigan and MSU do? All the other Big Ten schools (excluding Penn State) have strong histories of hockey, but not OSU. Thoughts?
The Roquan Smith and Mike Weber recruitment stories cry out for someone to take on the NCAA and a school like UCLA or OSU and sue to rescind a NLI for fraudulent inducement. These kids are being misled into thinking guys who have jobs elsewhere are going to be coaching them, and they get trapped in the NCAA regulations and have to miss a year if they are PO'd that the coach left. Weber has perfect facts for a lawsuit: he was conflicted at the last minute, his "position coach" at OSU was recruiting him hard, the guy obviously had the Bears job in his pocket and was waiting until after signing day to announce. Weber can easily allege he would not have chosen OSU had he known the true facts. Discovery into the text messages, emails and phone records among Urbs, his RB coach, the Bears etc. would be fascinating. I'd wager there is testimony to be had (probably from the Bears) that "we need to keep this quiet until after signing day." Fraudulent inducement allows you to rescind the NLI, meaning it never existed. NCAA regulations can't trump the law of the land. I would love to see one of these kids get PO'd enough to bring this abusive system down.
Looks like we've got a new lifelong fan. Poor sap. First comment on the article is gold:
"Yeah, but was it free?"
- 2011 Buckeyes