(James Coller) The result of too many DZTOs and OMRs
- Michigan actually wins its first CORSI game of the season...I think? Lake State is also 44th in RPI. They got the puck deeper and between the circles more as the game went on. They also did not convert. This is the other end of the luck they have been receiving all season. Outplaying an opponent and not converting. Sounds like an inverted Michigan game.
- They did create chances and forced some penalties. That is a positive takeaway. Unfortunately, I'm more inclined to believe this is more because of the opposition, though...
- Wilton Speight will play, it seems. That would be encouraging. If he can hit something deep and stretch the field...sigh, that would be greeeeeeeat
- Maybe some of the better defense that M has played this year. Most of the 5v5 opportunities were pushed away from the circles and out towards the blue line...which is where you want attempts to come from. They did not give up TOO many chances, but both of the non-emptynetters were on the defense and not JLF.
- De Jong was beat behind the net and there was not rotation to the Laker in the slot on the first goal. That would be a DZTO The second was a hustle OMR...it will be touched on later.
- Peppers has to make a big play, right? Huge INT or forcced fumble. It's going to turn The Game
- Again, Michigan finds a way to score on the PP. Calderone took a quick shot from the slot, keeping the puck on the ice, and slipping one between Defiel's pads. That was it on the power play, however. 1 for 7 in total, tonight. Woof.
- Michigan mostly tried to go 1-3-1 with whatever lines were on the ice. That was new. Usually, they stay away from that after Line 1. It also came back to bite them because they did not have a 2nd defenseman to keep the puck in the zone...which lead to the turnover...which lead to the 2v1 on which LSSU scored the winner.
- On the PK, Michigan continued its great success, forcing LSSU to go 0 of 5. That's still too many penalties, though...especially for a team that struggles on offense.
- Kenny Allen has been solid since his early season hiccups. Converting on trips into OSU territory will be a must, tomorrow.
- JLF played lights out, tonight, despite letting a couple goals get by. He really couldn't do much on either goal. His overall ability and positioning were again on display all night.
- Michigan does not appear to be a very good team, overall. However, goaltending is not an issue. Neither is backup goaltending.
- He also momentarily saved the game as the PP gave up a breakaway.
- You know Harbaugh has been gameplanning for this since M was run off the field, last year. Hiring Don Brown was evidence of that. This is his time.
ODD MAN RUSHES
After not giving up many OMRs over the last few weeks, old habits die hard, apparently. Michigan surrendered four, tonight. The first couple were nothing of note as LSSU couldn't complete a pass or even get a decent attempt on net. The third was a Michigan PP breakaway conceded that JLF just stoned. The last, however, was a hustle 2v1. After a PP faceoff win, Kile couldn't keep the puck in and Piazza got back to shut down the break. However, the 3rd man into the zone was a Laker and he fired one past a bare JLF. OMRs up a man can happen in a 1-3-1...but this one lost the game for Michigan.
- Advantages for Michigan, tomorrow should be in pass defense, Peppers-ing, and general experience. If not now, when?
FINAL CORSI SCORE
I had: Michigan 51, Lake Superior State 34
collegehockeynews.com said: Michigan 48, Lake Superior State 31
This is going to be an abbreviated Breakdown (mostly bullet points, etc). I am going to try to catch the 2nd half of Hoops at Crisler and then we leave for Iowa City in the morning. So, I'll see what I can get you, tonight...
(James Coller) Betcha didn't see this coming, heh heh
- Not good. By my tally, M created 31 attempts. This seems about on par with the rest of their season.
- The first 5v5 goal (to make it 3-0) was an elite move by Lockwood to swim a defender and and unbelieveably difficult finish from Slaker, who had the slimmest of angles to get it inside the post. But he did.
- The other was an empty-netter with 4:30+ left in the 3rd. Ok, sure.
- Lockwood/Slaker duo looks fantatstic. They made most of the offensive chances and seem to be the future offense of this team.
- Alex Kile and Max Shuart did not dress. Along with 2 other veterans.
- I don't want to slam this defense too much. It was not great, but they did a decent job starting 3 freshmen and 2 sophomores.
- Other than a second period with multiple M penalties, the defense did a respectable job of keeping BU out of the slot/crease...especially given the talent depth for the Terriers.
- That being said, there were still a few bad DZTOs and struggles to get the puck clear of the defensive zone. Given the strength of the opponent, though, I've seen worse defensive performances from M this season.
- Nolan De Jong did not dress.
- As per usual (at least the games I see), Michigan scores of 2 of their first 3 power play shots.
- M finishes 2/5 on PP, which is still great. They are now 10/40 on the season.
- With all of the suspensions, they could not go 1-3-1, setting up almost exclusively with 2 high at the points.
- M commits a lot of penalties (6) but looks solid on the PK, killing them all and not ceding many great looks, down a man.
- Hayden Lavigne was fantastic. He absolutely stole the 2nd period.
- Lavigne made a ton of positional saves and looked good moving around the net when he was forced to scramble.
- He also recorded his 2nd shutout of the season...this time against a Top 10 scoring offense.
- Michigan will probably still rotate goalies, to a degree, but I expect Lavigne to get most of the minutes going forward.
ODD MAN RUSHES
- Perhaps, I fell asleep, but I do not remember a single OMR for BU. I asked around, but no one else near me could give me a single detail about one OMR they remembered. Huh. Obviously, even if there was one, it wasn't overly threatening, then. Yay!
- There was one horrendously bad DZTO where Luce centered a BU attacked from behind the net and he walked in on Lavigne. Hayden said NO.
- I am encouraged by this!
FINAL CORSI SCORE
I had: Boston University 55, Michigan 31
collegehockeynews.com had BU 53, M 32
(Bill Rapai) Just wanted to use this photo
Not good. I have Michigan with a CORSI score of 27. That is just over half of what they had last night. They got six combined attempts from the slot. They scored on three of them. I am running out of things to say about this offense. They just generate very, very few quality scoring opportunities. The attempts they do get are mostly from quite a distance. Yet, enough shots go in. Yay being lucky, I guess...
A major hat tip to Alex Kile who slithered through the slot on his knees and roofed a puck to give Michigan a lead. That was one of the most impressive non-Connor goals I've seen Michigan score in a while. Cutler Martin finished off a rebound to tie the game late in the third after Calderone had driven the net and Pastujov created a nice rebound in front of the crease. Those were both actually very repeatable even strength chances.
Michigan should have gotten destroyed, tonight. I had Tech getting a CORSI score of 59. That over double what Michigan had. And that's exactly what it looked like, as well. If it weren't for some fantastic netminding (and a handful of missed opportunities), this game would have been Tech by 3-4 goals. Michigan Tech was again able to get wherever they wanted on the ice. At least in the 3rd period, Michigan was able to push Tech away from the slot. So, I guess there's that. Tech also hit the post at the end of regulation and again in overtime. Overtime was completely dominated by Michigan Tech, as well. Michigan again struggled with Tech's forecheck, clearing the puck, and retaining any sort of possession anywhere on the ice. It just seems like a matter of time before the goaltending dam breaks and there is a flood of opposing goals.
Michigan, again, finds a way to score on the power play. Will Lockwood snapped in a rebound from the left circle to give Michigan a lead early in the opening period. They ended up going 1/5 in total. In the early third, M had back to back power plays and could not muster more than a single shot. That was discouraging and about when Tech took over momentim and scored a couple of goals. One interesting note: Michigan goes with the 1-3-1 with their first PP line and more of an umbrella on their second PP line. I'm guessing this is because they do not trust anyone but Piazza to stand by himself on the blue line.
Michigan did another good job of only giving Tech four power plays, tonight...not that it didn't seem like even strength was a Tech power play all night, anyway. They did not surrender a power play goal.
There was an interesting bit of 3v3 hockey as both teams took two isolated penalties each. After initial rushes for both teams, no one really took another chance and nothing really came of such a rare opportunity.
Jack LaFontaine put in a shift tonight. Michigan surrended 45 shots and he stopped 42 of them. Tech consistently got down low and filled the slot with scoring chances. Their first goal was the result of a well-played 3v2 that was jammed in by the post. The second was an attempt through a handful of skaters that was twice deflected and went between his JLF's legs. The third goal, he may want back. He was beat far post by a snapshot from outside the left circle...in a seemingly benign chance. Other than that, he did almost everything else at a very high level, especially considering he was pretty much under siege the entire game. JLF looked athletic, quick to react, and controlled his rebounds rather well. Michigan does not seem to have any issues in net.
ODD MAN RUSHES
I counted only three. There were about 2-3 almost OMRs in the second period, but since the puck never got out of the zone, I could count those more as DZTOs. Tech scored an a beautifully worked 3v2 that got stuffed in the far post, beating JLF. The goal was reviewed but it was determined that it was not a kicking motion. It was pretty close. The last two OMRs were a 2v1 and another 3v2...neither came to anything as M actually defended them well. OMRs do not seem to be an issue for M, this season. That's a positive, I suppose.
FINAL CORSI SCORE
Michigan Tech 59, Michigan 27 ( 31% possession)
www.collegehockeynews.com had it 72-29...that's even worse
(Paul Sherman) Late game heroics!
Michigan tallied a season high 45 attempts at the net, tonight (courtesy of www.collegehockeynews.com ). That is their best 5v5 offensive output, yet. Is it growth or might it be the result of playing against another lowly WCHA team? Ummmmm...we will see, but I'm still leaning toward the latter. Jake Slaker notched another goal, early in the first period. He seems to be starting to produce more on the top line. Tony Calderone also nabbed another goal. He got into the offensive zone on a 1v3 and did about the only thing you can do in that situation...he threw it at the net and it went in! Hooray!
Through the first couple periods, Michigan's attack was still rather sparse. They only managed three attempts from between the circles, yet scored on two(!!) of those three. Most of the rest of their attempts came from the edges of the circles or out to the perimeter. In the third period, Michigan doubled their combined 1st and 2nd period CORSI score. They were also better able to get the puck down low and into the slot. The placement of attempts in the third period encourages me...but I'm going to need to see that from an entire game (or a few games) before I am ready to get excited about the offense.
Michigan Tech generated a 57 CORSI score, tonight. This is really not good news. Tech is 1-5-1 after tonight's game. They have played 5 road games (all against ranked opponents), but they are clearly not off to a great start. Looking through the shot charts, Michigan's defense was unable to keep Tech's offense out of the slot all night. In fact, Tech was able to get off shots from all over the attacking zone. The second period was especially disconcerting as Michigan surrendered 35 attempts (22 on even strength). Michigan is walking a very dangerous line with this defense. They are struggling with intense forechecking (same as last season) and are turning the puck over before getting deep into the attacking end (also something not new). Michigan's superior offensive talent bailed them out time and again over the last couple seasons. With the offense taking a step (or 2) back this season, the defense really needs to play at a higher level if Michigan is to compete against better competition. That has not happened, yet.
Jake Slaker continues to stay hot, notching another power play goal. However, in five power play opportunities, Michigan only generated five total shots. That is not nearly enough. I was unable to see the game, tonight, but from what I read and heard, the power play looks slower and inexpereinced (not a total shock after losing so many contributors, last season). It seems that they are still finding a way to take advantage of some opportunities, but unless they are able to create more chances, this rate seems unsustainable.
On the PK side, Michigan only committed four penalties. They only surrendured six shots on those four chances. That is definitely a number they can live with. Improvement from the PK is a nice positive from this game. To add to that, Will Lockwood was also able to score the GWG with under a minute left while being short-handed. Michigan now has three short-handed goals...Max Shuart with an assist on each one. This, also seems highly unsustainable. But Michigan will surely take it, right now!
Hayden Lavigne got his second start in net, tonight, and performed well enough. He faced a ton of shots and chances but was able to stay in front of most of them, stopping 31 of 34. He was also forced to deal with the puck in his slot and crease quite a few times. He looked a little shaky on one goal, according to a few different reports. Still, seeing the sheer volume of attacks he faced, it seems difficult to expect a lot more out of the freshman. Still, the way that all of the goalies have performed, I would expect to see LaFontaine or Nagelvoort in net tomorrow...with no disrespect to Lavigne at all.
ODD MAN RUSHES
I was filming Cass/King at Ford Field for FBO, so I was unable to count OMRs, tonight. Tomorrow, I should be at Yost and will finally be able to fill out this section.
FINAL CORSI SCORE
Michigan Tech 57, Michigan 45 (44% possession for Michigan)
Caveat: I, unfortunately, will not be able to cover every single game due to football season and other Blog-related responsibilities. Also, as far as the statistical approach goes, I will be at the mercy of both the video availability of games and the creative ways to get shot charts from each game. (Like for the Ferris State game, they apparently only gave out 1st and 2nd period shot charts). Hopefully, I can make this work for the most part.
(Paul Sherman) Quite a debut
Like I stated previously, I was unable to see this game and only have two of the three shot charts. However, through two periods, M only generated 16 attempts at the net in 5v5 play. That is even worse than the first game against Union (the second game was a little better). The offensive questions still abound. Multiple people who did see the game told me that Ferris generally dominated play and M had trouble finding scoring opportunities. The shooting charts seem to back that theory. While they did manage to win this game, Ferris State is an 0-4 WCHA team. If you are unable to control the puck against them, it does not bode well for upcoming weekends.
I had the CORSI score at 22-16 in favor of Ferris State through two periods. I can definitely live with giving up 22 attempts in two periods. They did allow the Bulldogs to get seven chances in the lower slot, however. I would hope to see more of those attempts come from the perimeter. Again, the Wolverines got some steller goaltending, which again seemed to cover up a somewhat leaky defense.
One of the bright sides for M has been their power play. They tallied both of their goals in this game on the man advantage. Jake Slaker got his first career goal as M took the lead midway through the second period. Slaker would also tally an assist on the Wolverines second power play goal. Sam Piazza's game-winner also came up a man in the third period. It was Piazza's third goal of the season, giving him the team lead. Michigan did draw five power plays on the night and definitely took advantage of their opportunities.
Unfortunately, Michigan's parade to the penalty box continued against Ferris State. They took seven penalties in total. That is still too many, especially from a defense that is struggling to keep puck away from the front of the night. Fortunately, on Saturday, Michigan was able to kill six of the seven Bulldog power plays.
This has definitely been the brightest spot for the Wolverines...and they apparently are ridiculously deep. M has started a different goalie in each game this season and all three goalies have performed very well. Jack LaFontaine got his first career start and stopped 28 of the 29 shots that he saw. He came into Michigan as a highly regarded recruit and, by all accounts, lived up to the billing in his first opportunity. A knowledgeable friend said it was a "stand on his head" performance. Even with a bit of a leaky defense and a lacking offense, Michigan's goaltending has put them in position to win every game this season.
ODD MAN RUSHES
n/a for tonight
FINAL CORSI SCORE (though 2 periods)
Ferris State 22, Michigan 16
I tired, guys (Barron)
Ugh. Despite the score being only 4-3 (and 3-2, M for most of the game), Michigan's offense was mostly non-existent. My final CORSI count was 69-36. That's a 34% possession rate. Woof. When Michigan was actually able to get a hold of the puck, they were usually trying to fling it down the ice for a clear or attempt to use their speed to create an OMR going the other direction. Obviously, its still early in the season and they're playing with quite a few freshman forwards (5 of the 11 dressed), but its tough to see who is going to generate the offense. Will Lockwood has some potential. He had a 2v1 and eschewed the pass and picked a top corner to give M the lead early in the 2nd. After that, though...there was very little. There was a little flurry in the 2nd where M was able to get into inside the circles, but for most of the game, the few chances they did have came from the perimeter. Alex Kile has some handles and a shot but he's played the best when someone is able to get him the puck. I'm not sure who that will be, at this point. Two of M's goals came on special teams and neither looks super repeatable.
To the eye test, I honestly didn't think the defense was too terrible. There did not seem to be a lot of huge gaffes or awful DZTOs (there might have been a couple). Looking at the shot charts, though...numbers tell a different story. Union was able to get inside the circles and into the slot with relative ease. By my count 45 of their 69 attempts came from inside of the circles/slot. That's...a lot. Michigan did have a number of blocks, but...still. Union also did not return a lot of scoring from last season. We'll see how Union looks in the future, but allowing that many chances from that close is not the start Michigan was looking for to begin their season.
Special teams don't factor into the advanced stats that we're trying to focus on, but Michigan still took eight penalties....including four (five, but one was matching) in the opening period. And they all came in rapid succession. Union was able to scratch a goal back after falling behind 2-0. They also tallied late in the 3rd to tie that game, going 2 for 6, overall. If the Wolverines can't stay out of the box...this will get rough.
On the positive side (there is one?), Michigan managed to score twice on special teams. The first came on a loose puck off of the faceoff that Piazza sniped home from the high slot. The second was Max Shuart chipping a puck clear on a Union 2 man advantage to a streaking Tony Calderone who scored on a the PK as he broke free after exiting the box. Neither of those goals were the result of great puck movement, but more capitalizing on friendly bounces, unfortunately. When they did get the PP set up, they started in the 1-3-1, but never got it fully buzzing the way we were so used to it going last season. In their last two PPs, they generated a couple chances, but nothing too golden.
This might have been the brightest spot for Michigan...and it looks as if they might need it. I thought Nagelvoort played really, really well. There was absolutely nothing he could have done on either of the first two goals or the fourth. The third he may wish to have back, but it would not be filed as 'awful.' Regardless, he made 36 saved and faced many, many attempts from close range. He looked strong around the net, and I thought he controlled his rebounds rather well. His movement in the crease and puck tracking both looked very solid. There really is not a lot more he could have done tonight. When you face that many chances, pucks will go in at some point.
ODD MAN RUSHES
This is something Adam and I started tracking last season when our hottaeks told us that Michigan gave up way too many goals from getting caught out of their defensive zone. Tonight, I only tracked three OMRs. Only one was dangerous -as it came on a M PP. Piazza was back in a 2v1 and somehow got beat by the puck carrier but no goal resulted. Other than that, the other two (a 3v2 and a 2v1) were mitigated by nice defensive work. It seemed these were a huge bugaboo for M last season and resulted in free goals for opponents. Tonight, the goals were more of a result of not being able to clear the zone, tired legs from chasing all night, and the inability to stay out of the box.
FINAL CORSI SCORE
Union 69, Michigan 36