this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
Much has been made of the recent UM record. However, whenf statisticians seek a more reliable measure of a team’s quality and the direction of a program, they look at the bigger picture by (1) comparing that season record with records from other schools and (2) considering not a single year, but groups of years (called a moving average).
(1) I looked at the records of the two most recent coaches among our rivals. I found that ND had a 3 win season, OSU had a four win season; and MSU had three four-win seasons. Some of these occurred during coaching transitions, like UM’s. But others had no such excuse.http://cid-4bf9d75c782b05b1.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/notre%20dame%20trends/ND+trends+vs+UM.jpg
(2) As in prior threads (see footnote*), I now report the analysis of the records of the ND coaches, based on the victories averaged over each of 4 successive seasons.**
Results: Under Lou Holz, the trend was positive overall (with an increase of .125 victories per year). Yet, much as occurred during LC’s initial years, the gains were all early, and were followed by a gradual decline. For all the subsequent coaches at ND, the trends were consistently negative (a decrease in average victories of -.25 per season for Davies, -.25 per season for Willingham, -.10 per season for Weiss. However, the trends appear downward at a uniform rate, starting at Holtz’s peak.
1. The ND program is progressively deteriorating.
2. One wonders if the many coaching changes
contributed to this. I have given mixed
shades to the transition years, in which one coach has at least 2 years of the
other one’s players. From this, one
wonders whether Willingham would have continued the upward trend if he was kept
and could play his recruits during what were the first two years of Weiss’
3. Since ND faces massive losses next year, including the OL, RB and probably Clausen and Tate, in addition, with a completely inexperienced backup QB who will be unable to practice and coming off ACL surgery next August, one must seriously wonder when—no, whether—the ND program will get back on track.
If UM uses ND as an example of what might happen to a program, the questions for UM now is whether it will follow the pattern of Holtz, who began with a decline in average wins—similar to what is likely for RR (although Holtz did not have the big immediate dropoff in average wins from his predecessor, since that average was already quite low). The promising thing is that, unlike ND, UM has more, not less, starters coming back for the next two years. Clearly, it’s way too early to tell—as Brian has intimated today—but I can't help worrying that we might end up like ND if we keep getting rid of coaches before they can build their program.
* In two previous threads titled “Reasons for Hope” (for UM), and “reasons for MSU hopelessness.” Another interesting and pertinent link from another poster is: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/what-two-losing-seasons-start-tenure-means**Note that it’s not a simple average. At the beginning of a coach's tenure, his record is shown as an average that includes the prior coach's average--which may be either better or worse than the current record. As, such the first two years of each coach’s tenure are shown as mixed colors, as they reflect the recruits of the previous coach as well as the performance of the current coach. (just ask yourself, if Bo were alive and took over the coaching job of the perennial celler-dweller Northwestern team in the 60's, would he be responsible for the first few years?)
Though we may be tied for last in the B10 (or 10th place.... what's the difference anyway)
We are #1 in Points For
eh? eh? Discuss
Just wondering if somebody can tell me the name of the Michigan Bar in South Bay? Also, if anyone can tell me what its like there I would greatly appreciate it. Go Blue!
I am wondering what the mood of the MGoBoarders is regarding how we'll fare against Purdue. They had a pretty impressive win against OSU, but they were creamed by Wisconsin. The also beat Illinois and lost to Notre Dame. They are a hard one to predict. We're one win from a bowl. Do we get it?
DISCLAIMER:This is meant to be an **objective** analysis of how David Brandon's other political aspirations mean for his AD candidacy. It is simply meant to provide context to the discussion of his potential hiring, and nothing else. I am NOT trying to start a political debate.
Brandon's window to join the 2010 gubernatorial election is basically closed, and it is extremely unlikely that he would run. The basic reality is that the GOP field (in which Brandon would participate) is basically already full of three, "top-tier" candidates who've already laid the groundwork for campaigns, begun to seal up endorsements, hire consultants, and soforth. It'd be extremely unlikely (not to mention pretty foolish) for Brandon to run in 2010.
As for the future, that's a different story. The guy lives in a congressional district where he's unlikely to ever win as a Republican unless he relocates, but the guy's always had statewide aspirations anyway. The smart money right now is on a Republican to win the governorship in 2010 -- that means Brandon would be unlikely to run until 2018 (assuming the GOP incumbent seeks a second term; at earliest, Brandon would be angling for 2014).
Sen. Stabenow is viewed as a potentially more vulnerable Democrat, relative to Sen. Levin at least, and she's up for reelection in 2012. This would by far be the most tempting and most likely race for Brandon to enter in the immediate future, and I would imagine he would be atop of the national GOP's recruitment list. Races of that sort usually need about a two-year lead time to be run properly, meaning that if Brandon were to assume the AD position in late 2010, he'd effectively be leaving the job as soon as he started. Levin is set to face reelection in 2014, however, at which point he'd be 80 years old. That puts Levin in retirement range, but it's no guarantee for a vet like him, and certainly not without precedent in the Senate for an octogenarian to seek reelction.
In short: For David Brandon to become AD, he would need to wave off a challenge to Stabenow in 2012 to probably satisfy U-M. If we want him to be seriously paying attention to his job for more than two years, it would likely require a commitment for him to wave off any 2014 gubernatorial or Senate races. The guy's youth is probably an asset in a race now; down the line, he'd be a little older of a candidate should he forfeit opportunities for the Michigan AD job. It would seem he'd have to forsake a lot of political aspirations to take the job.
California DB Tony Jefferson recently announced his intention to take an official visit to Michigan, although committed to UCLA. Jefferson is a four star safety with a fake [ed: !!!] 4.5 40 time. As I mentioned in a different thread, my computer broke again, so this will be somewhat brief, and in a different format. I spoke with him about the change in his recruitment, and here are some bullet points about what he said:
- Wherever he goes, he will be enrolling early, which means he will be deciding soon.
- His visit will be November 7th for the Purdue game.
- "The coaches (from Michigan) have been talking to me for awhile now, and they've really turned up the intensity. That's part of why I'm taking a visit. I've been talking to coach Singletary and Rich Rodriguez. They've basically been telling me that I'm a priority for them, and they really want me."
- "I've been watching their games, and I really like the way they've been playing defense. I know at Michigan I could get a really good education, and always be fighting to play in a bowl game; I like that."
- "I have a really strong feeling towards Michigan. I get along really well with their staff, and Tate Forcier has been talking to me alot. He's a San Diego boy, and he's been telling me about how much he loves it."
- He said that UCLA hasn't done anything wrong, he just doesn't want to second guess himself.
- His final list is UCLA, Florida, Michigan, and Miami.
- An interesting side note: He has a lot of family in Florida, and confirmed that if he committed to Florida, his family might move there.
It seems like Florida has the best shot, but he seemed sincere when he said he has a strong feeling towards Michigan. Since he's never been on campus, you never know. The coaches have definitely shown him they want him, and he mentioned that it means a lot that they're showing so much interest. He'll visit Florida on November 28th and will decide shortly after.