[UPDATE 8/26/2014 from Seth:]
While the ticket spreadsheet was awesome for its time, we've known for some time that it's subject to abuse, and more likely to be damaged the more our community has grown. We've been on the lookout for some way to add a layer of security that's still free on both ends. Now we have that!
Go here: http://www.tiqiq.com/sellerdirect and sign in with your Facebook account. Then list your tickets, put MGoBlog somewhere in your description if you like, then copy the link to your tickets and paste on the spreadsheet.
Nobody's forced to use that system. This is just a protection for sellers so their price can't be changed, and for buyers so they know they're dealing with a real human with a name and pictures of their cat.
To go along with the 'more informative headlines' theme, this thread will hopefully get set as a sticky. I have made a spreadsheet listing all people selling and looking for tickets.. http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Avnckx2kNv9GdGVPQXBQMDZQdFJ4RTJS... Basketball season is here.. I've started up a new sheet in the document for basketball. Ive made the permissions open to anyone to edit, so we'll try the trust method for a while until someone abuses. Feel free to post what you are looking for or selling. If it gets abused, I'll go back to the method of requiring someone to email me and then posting.
Bill Connelly recently came out with an article analying the returning production of 2017's college football teams. Rather than just using returning starts to analyze a teams upcoming season, he looks at all returning production as a percentage. One main takeaway is that some of the most telling stats are returning receiving yardage and passing yardage on offense and overall passes defended/overall tackles on defense. To get a more complete persepective, read the article here:
After reading this, I had a thought. Bill provided an expected increase or decrease in points above average for both offense and defenses for the 2017 season. I thought I would take his expected production changes and compare it to the 2016 numbers to see where Michigan and its 2017 opponents would fall in the 2017 rankings. NOTE: This is not an all inclusive analysis. Other factors such as coaching changes and recruiting classes are not considered. So lets get started.
MICHIGAN: Michigan's offense is expected to regress by 1.8 points per game and the defense should fall by about 7.9 ppg for an overall total of a 9.7 ppg regression. This is larger than any fall of all Big Ten teams from 2016 to 2017. That's really bad right? However, Michigan is falling from a height of 26.8 ppg, still having the maize and blue fall in at a projected 17.1 ppg above average. Based on where this would fall in the 2016 rankings, this would place Michigan at: VERDICT: 13th ranked team in 2017
Now onto the 2017 schedule plus a few notables.
FLORIDA: Projected offense increase of 2.7. Defense projected to drop by 2 ppg. The total increase of 0.7 would place the Gators at 15th (14.8 ppg above average) in the country, setting Michigan up for a potentially very evenly matched opening bout, especially when considering the neutral field.
CINCINNATTI: The Bearcats were not good in 2016 at -5.2 ppg. With an overall expected increase of only 1.6 ppg, UC will likely be bad again in 2017. That projection would only move them up to just inside the top 80 teams.
AIR FORCE: The Falcons were pretty solid in 2016, finishing 10-3 and 1.2 ppg above average. However, they're losing more production than every FBS team in the country. Expected the lose 4.7 ppg on offense and 8.6 ppg on defense, Air Force is expecting a drop of 13.3 points which would drop them to 113th overall in the 2016 rankings.
PURDUE: They were horrendous in 2016. They're gonna be really bad again. At -9.4 ppg already and expecting a small increase of only 1.7 ppg, the Boilers are still gonna be outside the top 100 teams.
MICHIGAN STATE: One of the classic Sparty narritives so far this offseason has been Michigan losing a lot. News flash to Sparty fans. Your team was terrible in 2016 and it looks like it's going to be again in 2017. MSU can expect to lose 4.2 points on offense and 2.2 on defense. All said, that would make the green giants the 78th best team. Good thing they have a big recruiting class comi....oh wait. /troll over
INDIANA: IU is an interesting case to look at. The Hoosiers can expect a small uptick at 0.8 ppg offensively, but an already solid defense could be looking at an increase of 5.4 ppg. All in all, this would put Indiana at 26th in the nation. However, the Hoosiers just fired Kevin Wilson for uh...things that happened. So it's hard to actually project they'll reach these heights. It could be a tricky road game for our Wolverines though.
PENN STATE: The Nits came on strong to finish the 2016 season, winning the Big Ten and narrowly losing to a tough USC team in the Rose Bowl. 2017 looks promising in Happy Valley with projected increases placing PSU 6th in the nation for 2017.
RUTGERS: Can the Scarlet Knights get any worse than they were? With a projected increase of 2.4 ppg, Rutgers is still going to be amongst the worst 20 teams in the nation.
MINNESOTA: The Gophers are projected to fall back a bit offensively and get a bit better defensively. Overall, they're expected to fall down about 1.4 ppg and would place right about the top 50. However, they'll also be in Year 1 of one of the hottest upcoming coaches in the country in PJ Fleck.
MARYLAND: DJ Durkin had a big rebuild to undertake when he took over the Terps in 2016 and they finished at -5.4 ppg. Bill expects them to step back by 3.5 ppg on offense and offset that with a 2.1 ppg improvement on defense. Overall, they might step back a bit before moving forward. They would fall just inside the top 100 teams.
WISCONSIN: This is going to be the Wolverines first trip to Madison in nearly a decade. The Badgers were very good in 2016. They're expected to improve to about 20 ppg above average overall in 2017. This has the making of a possible top 10 team.
OHIO STATE: It would have been nice to have them at home in 2016 instead of 2017, but being at home might be the Wolverines best chance to finally beat the Buckeyes. OSU is expected to improve by 1.5 ppg on offense but fall by 1.3 on defense. They should be about the same level of team again this coming season. That would make them a top 5 outfit. Once again, it's going to be extremely difficult to topple the Bucks.
Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Iowa looks to experience a strong drop in offense that would move the Hawks to somewhere right around the top 60 teams. Nebraska is expecting a similar offensive dropoff as Iowa. Would it be a big stunner to see the Huskers fall to the top 70ish range? Improvements for Northwestern might see them rise to the top 30. Could the Wildcats be a serious Big Ten West contender?
Also, Alabama should rightfully be the #1 team entering 2017. They finished as the #1 team to S&P+, finished 2nd in the national title race, recruit in a way that we've never seen recently, and are expected to be at basically the exact same level in 2017.
Michigan is featured twice in the most recent Uni Watch column on road team names/artwork in endzones. The beginning focuses on NFL games, but there are at least two examples of Michigan games: 1968 @ OSU, "MICH" was painted in the endzone at Ohio Stadium, and in the 1995 Pigskin classic (Lloyd Carr's first game), "VIRGINIA" was in the endzone for a home game (though technically designated a netrual-site game).
Are there any other examples?
Michigan's all-time bowl record is 21-23.
All 23 of Michigan's losses have occurred since Jan. 1, 1970; the only other program in the country with as many bowl losses in that time span is Ohio State, which also has 23 losses. I would never have guessed that the only pre-expansion Big Ten program with a winning bowl record is Purdue.
FSU bowl record: 27-16-2 (25-11-1 in the Bowden/Fisher era)
OSU 23-24 (includes their vacated Sugar Bowl win in 2011)
Total BIG: 183-197-4
Mississippi St 12-8
Ole Miss 24-13
South Carolina 8-13
T A&M 17-21
Total SEC: 264-230-13
Bowl records of other bluebloods or notables
Miami FL 19-18
If Michigan beats FSU tonight, Jim Harbaugh will have achieved a first—he will be the only coach in Michigan's history to win his first two bowl games.
The four best Big Ten East coaches right here pic.twitter.com/DraYfKaakS— PSU got robbed* (@drunkzanjo) December 2, 2016
This is a standard troll post but it did make me think.
- 2015: 3rd best team in the B1G hoists the trophy, gains credibility.
- 2016: exact same result.
For me, this year really took some of the luster off of winning the damn thing. I wanted to win it for the tradition and to solidify M's return but at the same time, I feel that PSU holding up that trophy undermines the idea. Just like MSU holding it up last year did.
So while I want to win it for the sake of winning it, I no longer feel it means you're the supreme ruler of the conference. It's really more about catching the right breaks throughout the season. As simple as "were you lucky enough?" Michigan had every ingredient to be conf champs except luck. That was afforded to someone else, again.
So if you don't have to be the best team to win it and you don't have to win it to go to the CFP, why does it matter at all?
So I wanted to get a feel for what the board thinks in regards to B1G team(s) getting into the CFB.
In my opinion, if Penn St beats Wisconsin next week in the B1G Championship, I do not see them getting left out of the CFP. For one, they will have beaten Ohio St head-to-head (who is also fighting for a CFP spot) and a Top 10 Wisconsin team. Their two losses will have come to Pittsburgh (a solid 8-4 team that also beat Clemson) and Michigan on the road when they were dealing with a lot of injuries. Also, in the last few weeks they have annihilated Iowa (a team that might not be so mediocre after all getting big wins over Michigan and Nebraska) and MSU (a team that some believe is better than their record indicates and played both Michigan and Ohio St tough at least in terms of those games' final scores).
If Penn St were to win next week, I could easily see a similar fall out a la 2014 when TCU fell from #3 to #6 in the final rankings despite beating their opponent by 50ish points in the final week of the season. Only this time I can see Ohio St getting snubbed in a similar fashion, and it would be justified as a Penn St team that beat them and won their conference would go instead.
I think it also really comes down to what the committee thinks of Washington. If Clemson takes care of business next week, there is no way they are left out after beating Auburn, Louisville, and FSU and being led by Deshaun Watson. Win and in for them. However, the playoff committee has been skeptical of Washington much of the year, but if they win next week they will have blown out a good WSU and beaten a Top 10 Colorado team. Washington would finish the season at 12-1 with their lone loss coming to a Top 10ish USC that has been widely regarded as the hottest team in college football right now. So I do not see them getting left out of the playoff.
So here are the my predictions for several scenarios and I assume that Alabama takes care of business against Florida and that the BIG 12 is out.
Clemson, Washington win; Penn St wins the B1G:
- Penn St
- Ohio St
Maybe Ohio St gets in here instead of Washington.
Clemson, Washington win; Wisconsin wins the B1G:
- Ohio St/Clemson
- Clemson/Ohio St
In this case, Ohio State will get the nod for CFP as they beat Wisconsin head-to-head and finished the season with one less loss than UW.
EITHER Clemson OR Washington lose:
- Ohio St (if Wisconsin wins B1G)/Clemson OR Washington
- Clemson OR Washington/PSU (if B1G Champion)
- Wisconsin (if B1G Champion)/Ohio St (if PSU wins B1G)
- Clemson OR Washington
In this case, either Washington or Clemson (whichever team loses) would be knocked out of the playoff. This would make room for two B1G teams. If UW wins, they get the 4th spot and OSU gets the 2nd/3rd spot. If PSU wins, they get the 3rd spot, and OSU gets the 4th spot.
If Clemson and Washingotn both lose, then things are totally fucked so I won't go over that scenario. Maybe that makes room for Colorado, the BIG 12, or possibly Michigan.
So do you agree or disagree with me? Am I right about OSU/PSU or am I way off?
*Also, I am not a PSU apologist. I hate them as much as anybody, but I think they have a strong case for the CFP.