Mark Dantonio

Soulfire21, went over Debunking the Bye Week Myth earlier this week, showing that in general, teams coming off of a bye week usually lose. From 2000 to 2010, teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .480, a shade less than .500. However, Big Ten teams are noticeably worse when coming off of a bye week; Big Ten teams have a winning percentage of .350 when coming off of a bye week. Big Ten teams are below the national average by .150. By default, nationally, teams playing teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .520 and teams playing Big Ten teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .650.

Although the average team performs worse when coming off of a bye week, I wondered if there was an exception. Some coaches have their teams perform better than average after bye weeks and some coaches have their teams perform worse than average, right? This also means that some coaches have to be better than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week and some coaches have to be worse than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week.

Before I started writing this diary, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have a below average record playing after a bye week and that Brady Hoke would have an above average record playing against teams who were coming off of bye weeks. I had no rational reason for these predictions. I just don’t like Dantonio and I like Brady Hoke.

My method for checking my predictions was quite simple, just look at the W/L record of Mark Dantonio (as a Head Coach) coming off of a Bye Week and then look at the record of Brady Hoke (as a head coach) playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week.

Mark Dantonio Coming Off of Bye Weeks

*10 day bye week instead of a full 14 day bye week

Interesting Notes

-Mark Dantonio, as a head coach, is 3-4 when coming off of a bye week. That is good for a winning percentage of 0.428. That puts Dantonio below the national average by .052 but above the Big Ten average by .078.

-As MSU’s head coach, Dantonio is 1-1 coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .500, .020 above the national average and .150 above the Big Ten average.

-Biggest loss: 31 points in 2008. MSU vs. PSU

-Smallest loss: 15 points in 2005. Cincinnati vs. USF

-Average loss margin: 23 points

-Biggest win: 39 points in 2004. Cincinnati vs. Memphis

-Smallest win: 4 points in 2010. MSU vs. Purdue

-Average win margin:  21.7 points

-Dantonio is 2-0 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .520 above the national average and .650 above the Big Ten average.

-Dantonio is 1-4 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of .200, .280 below the national average and .150 below the Big Ten average.

Brady Hoke Playing Against Teams Who Are Coming Off of a Bye Week

*10 day bye-week

Interesting Notes

-Brady Hoke is 9-1 (!) when playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .900 (!). He’s outperforming the national average by .380 and the Big Ten average by .250.

- Biggest/Smallest/Average/Only loss:  4 points in 2009. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Biggest win: 34 points in 2010. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Smallest win: 10 points in 2010. SDSU vs. New Mexico

-Average win margin:  23.3 points

-Brady Hoke is 6-1 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of .857, .337 above the national average and .207 above the Big Ten average.

-Brady Hoke is 3-0 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .480 above the national average and .350 above the Big Ten average.

Upon taking a closer look, Dantonio outperforming the Big Ten is not very impressive for 3 reasons. Reason #1: Saying you’re doing better than the worst is inherently not impressive. You’re still doing worse than the best. Reason #2:  2 of his wins came in 2004 at Cincinnati, his first year as a head coach. After 2004, Dantonio lost every single game coming off of a bye week after until last year against Purdue. Even in that game, MSU barely managed to pull out the victory against a bad, 4-8 Purdue team. He clearly struggles in the games after bye weeks. Reason #3: Dantonio is very, very bad after bye weeks when he playing against teams with a winning record (1-4).

For the good guys, Brady Hoke is great when playing against teams coming off of a bye week. His only loss against a team coming off of a bye week was by 4 points. Although most of his wins came against teams who ended their seasons with losing records, he is undefeated against teams with winning records (3-0).  He easily outperforms both the national and Big Ten averages.

Bye weeks are of no advantage to MSU, and actually might hurt MSU’s chance of victory. MSU coming off of a bye week is more of an advantage to Michigan than to anyone else.  Mark Dantonio’s ineptness playing after a bye week coupled with Brady Hoke’s adeptness playing against teams coming off of a bye week point only to good things for Michigan.

P.S. This is my first Diary, so let me know if there is anything I should change, not change, do, or not do in the future. I’ll probably write something similar to this for the Purdue game, looking at how Brady Hoke fares when playing after bye weeks. 

On occasion, I find it illuminating to peer into the MGoBlog archives and "check the pulse" of the blog at certain important points in the past. A particularly relevant post from Brian below, following the infamous 2007 contest and the postgame comments from Mike Hart and Mark Dantonio:

http://mgoblog.com/content/spartans-your-profession-loser

Oh, now it's personal? You mean it's unlike all those other games when a host of kids who never even got looked at by Michigan (save three or four per year) played their instate rival and then immediately collapsed afterward? Oh shit. We are in serious trouble now. It's personal. I am liquidating my assets and moving to Tahiti, as Michigan will never beat Michigan State again.

Per ESPN, a brief excerpt:

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio has received a new contract designed to keep him a "Spartan for life."

The new deal maintains a five-year rollover clause for Dantonio, who is in his fifth year as coach and last season guided Michigan State to a team-record 11 victories and a share of the Big Ten title for the first time in 20 years. Dantonio's base salary increases from $618,000 to $650,000, and his new contract includes performance incentives such as a $100,000 bonus for winning the Big Ten championship game.

Link: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7075489/new-contract-michigan-state-spartans-coach-mark-dantonio-makes-spartan-life

I marked this "OT" because people have complained about Sparty postings.

http://detnews.com/article/20110617/SPORTS0202/106170342/Q&A--Mark-Danto...

At first glance it's an innocuous article with Dantonio swinging at a bunch of softballs, but I think it's particularly notable for the photo. He is *smiling*. Did he finally take my advice and eat a bucket of prunes?

I would like to introduce a new term into our mgovocabulary:

Dantofreude (noun) - Pleasure at the discomfort of Mark Dantonio, in his capacity as coach of Little Brother.

I believe we need this new term, because in his short-term success, Little Brother has grown intolerable.  Little Brother reveres Dantonio, elevating him to mythic status among the green brethren.  Ergo, any cause for Dantofreude reminds Little Brother that he remains, well, Little Brother.  Little Brother, like Icarus, flies too close to the sun.  Ergo, it is for his own good.  

There are quotes aplenty in here.  Commence reading between the lines:

http://detnews.com/article/20110122/SPORTS0202/101220321/High-school-coa...

Comments:

* Goricki has been Sparty-friendly in past articles.  Did he ignore RichRod-friendly coaches here?  Who knows?
* The first guy quoted is Patrick Threet of St. Clair Shores Lakeview.  Steven's brother?  :)  He doesn't appear to be a RichRod fan.  Samples:

"... you can definitely feel there's a leadership vibe there (with Hoke) that will relate to the hard-working people of Michigan ..." (Hopelessly vague ...)

"When you look at Michigan State, they won the state in recruiting and I think it shows."  (Whatever ...)

"There was a little bit of arrogance (with Rodriguez)."

* Next up, the somewhat famous John Herrington of Farmington Hills Harrison:

"I thought Rodriguez was a very good coach, an offensive genius. I think it will be different where Brady will recruit Michigan harder and not just go to Florida and California (like Rodriguez) ..." (I find this much more interesting, because Herrington's opinions probably carry some weight.  Even he seems to believe that RichRod didn't spend enough time in Michigan.)

* How does everyone feel about Hoke downshifting from a BlackBerry to a "regular" cell phone?  Offhand I can't imagine why someone would voluntarily trade down in that area, but maybe that's just me.  More important, what does it say about his modernity?  Coaches are still allowed to text these days, right?  (I'm assuming he wouldn't be enthusiastic about texting with only number keys.)  Does he risk being perceived as out-of-touch by players?  I could see where some people, like Coach Threet, could find the idea appealing.