this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
Idle Friday thoughts: which team is better, last year's or this year's basketball team? Compare this team to how they were both at this time last year (ranked #1 for the week going into the Indiana game) and how they were playing at the end of the year, during the tournament run.
If they were playing each other, who would win?
Because I was bored during lunch, I wanted to see how John Beilein's teams had improved over his tenure at Michigan by looking at the final KenPom and Sagarin numbers. I made 2 quick and dirty graphs that show the teams yearly final rank and rating. I thought the team rank would probably be the best way to compare across years because it is more standardized as the formula for the rating may have slight tweaks that impact the final value of the rating between years.
Amazingly, Michigan's teams under Beilein showed a progressive improvement each year with the outlier of one year, 2009 or 2010. You could make a case that Michigan overachieved ahead of schedule in 2009 or underachieved in 2010. I also thought it was pretty interesting that Michigan has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation under Beilein. Some of this has to do with the Big Ten Conference, but even within the Big Ten, Michigan's SOS are some of the best. Michigan has pretty much had a top 15 SOS every year under Beilein.
EDIT: Can't figure out how to successfully cut and paste the graphs.
The raw numbers:
|Year||KenPom Rank||KenPom Rating||Sagarin Syn Rank||Sagarin Syn Rating||Sagarin Predict Rank||KenPom SOS||Sagarin SOS|
Randomly putzing around on the YouTubes, I came across this. This is awesome material, not just for the video breakdown but also because the guy drew up all the play diagrams as well (link below). Must see stuff for those that like to breakdown basketball the way many breakdown football on this site (Also, for those who, in your weakest moments, say "OMG BEELINE DOESN'T RUN AN OFFENSE, THEY JUST PASS THE BALL AROUND." I keed, I keed.)
PDF of the play diagrams:
Very cool stuff and some of it gets kinda complicated. And, note this is just stuff JB has run against the 2-3, which is probably the least common defense you see at the college level. I'd be interested in seeing which of this stuff they also try to implement against the 1-3-1. Makes me want to go back and watch some of the games against Matta's 1-3-1.
Edited to make comment meant to be in jest more in jest.
When: June 5th, 6-9pm
Where: Chicago Marriott Downtown Magnificent Mile. 540 N. Michigan Avenue, 5th floor ballroom.
Cost: $40 for Alumni members, $55 for non-members.
The Coaches Tour returns to Chicago June 5th. Come enjoy a night out with fellow Alumni, as Brady Hoke, John Beilein, Dave Brandon and other speakers talk about their plans for the 2013-2014 seasons. A silent auction will take place at the end of the night, featuring one of a kind Michigan items.
Last year was the first year I attended and it was a blast. Come out and have a great time listening to out fearless leaders from the gridiron and the hardwood, as well as Dave Brandon's vison of the future.
Discounting (a) the obvious complaints about the officiating in the NCAA championship game (even though that likely had a significant impact on the outcome), and (b) the fact that Michigan was the youngest team in the NCAA tournament field, IF Michigan had beaten Louisville, the head coaches of the last five teams that Michigan would have beaten in the NCAA Tournament were:
VCU’s Shaka Smart; overall record of 111-36 (.753); in the NCAA tournament in three of his four seasons as a head coach and won the post-season CBI tournament in his first season as a head coach; made the Final Four in 2011, his second season as a head coach; considered one of the nation’s top young college coaches.
Kansas’s Bill Self; overall record of 507-164 (.756); 2008 NCAA champ; in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; twice in the Final Four and seven times in the Elite Eight.
Florida’s Billy Donovan; overall record of 450-186 (.707); 2006 and 2007 NCAA champ; except for 2008 and 2009, in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; in the Final Four three times and six times in the Elite Eight.
Syracuse’s Hall of Fame coach Jim Boeheim; overall record of 920-314 (.746); 2003 NCAA champ; except for 2002, 2007 and 2008, in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; four times in the Final Four, runner-up twice and in the Elite Eight six times; two-time assistant coach of USA Olympics gold-medal team.
Louisville’s Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino; overall record of 664-230 (.735); 1996 champ with Kentucky and 2013 NCAA champ with Louisville; except for 2002 and 2006, in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; in the Final Four seven times; in the Elite Eight eleven times.
By comparison, the coaches of the last five teams Louisville beat on its way to the championship were:
Colorado State’s Larry Eustachy; overall record of 428-267 (.615); in 22 seasons as college head coach, in the NCAA tournament five times and only twice past his opening game.
Oregon’s Dana Altman; overall record of 483-279 (.634); in 24 seasons as college head coach, in the NCAA tournament nine times and only three times past his opening game; post-season CBI champ in 2011.
Duke’s Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski; winningest men’s Division One head coach in NCAA history; overall record of 957-297 (.763); NCAA champ in 1991, 1992 and 2010 with Duke; in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; in the Final Four ten times; in the Elite Eight 13 times; two-time head coach of USA Olympics gold-medal team.
Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall; overall record of 333-153 (.685); in 24 seasons as college head coach, in the NCAA tournament nine times and only three times past his opening game; post-season CBI champ in 2011.
Michigan’s John Beilein; overall record of 598-360 (.624); in 21 seasons as Division One head coach, in the NCAA tournament eight times, six since 1999, and only once in the Final Four and twice in the Elite Eight.
The outcome was disappointing, but the run to the championship game was magical. Well done, Coach Beilein and the Men of the 2012-13 Michigan Basketball Team.