no wonder we hired Hunter Lochmann
Mitch Sherman has Michigan going to the Foster Farms Bowl, whatever that is.
He is also predicting that MSU goes to the Rose Bowl and that the team down south will be back in the playoffs.
The Birmingham Bowl is upon us! The mighty ECU Fighting AAAARRRRS versus the Florida Gators. I'm sure this would generally generate little interest, except there's no other football to watch and there will (hopefully) be an announcement soon after the game's conclusion that Michigan will be picking up a new DC, DJ "Dirty" Durkin.
For the last few years, I've blatanly stolen Seth's idea to use advanced metrics both to fill out my Bowl Pick'Em and to decide on which games to watch. Two years ago, using this approach got me 69% correct picks in my pool, but last year things were a bit rougher - an FEI-based pick'em got 54% correct, while a Sagarin PREDICTOR based one got 57%. When something doesn't work, throw more data it. So I put together a more elaborate spreadsheet (available here) that presents picks from several different advanced metrics: FEI, Colley, Massey (Power), and Sagarin (new, improved GOLDEN MEAN).
The methodology is straightforward - I compared all the teams using these metrics, and using the difference between them picked the winners and the confidence in the picks. That is, a huge difference in the ratings of the teams suggests a lock, a difference of zero is a push. In addition to looking at these metrics individually, I also put together a composite score by standardizing all the values and averaging them together. The list automatically sorts based on the system you use, with locks at the top and coin-flips (and presumably more exciting games) at the bottom. Interestingly, the four different system present three different potential national title winners, but none of those include OSU, so take some small pleasure in that.
Here is the table of composite picks:
|Rose Bowl Winner||Sugar Bowl Winner|
|Confidence - Watchability:||0.0807|
|Bowl||Date||Projected Winner||Confidence - Watchability|
|New Mexico||12/20/2014||Utah St||0.7864|
|Advocare V100 Texas||12/29/2014||Arkansas||0.7151|
|Popeyes Bahamas||12/24/2014||W. Kentucky||0.4061|
|Heart of Dallas||12/26/2014||Louisiana Tech||0.4038|
|Idaho Potato||12/20/2014||Air Force||0.2092|
|Quick Lane||12/26/2014||N. Carolina||0.2037|
Good luck in your bowl pools and happy holidays.
Back a few years ago, Seth put together a really neat FEI-based analysis of the bowl games. He not only picked winners in the games, he also created a "watchability index," which looked at how "good" the games would be in terms of quality and evenly matched the teams were. This allowed him to make the most of his limited CFB watching time over the holidays, an objective I shared. So, I stole his idea last year and put together a similar but much less sophisticated analysis, and got 69% of the picks correct while not having any one too mad at me for wanting to watch a select set of games.
I did a similar analysis this year, while adding FEI * in to the mix (full analysis here). In essence, I compared all the teams in terms of Sagarin and FEI, and using the difference between them picked the winners and the confidence in the picks. That is, a huge difference in the ratings of the teams suggests a lock, a difference of zero is a push.
Here's what I came up with for picks. The the two pick columns are who Sagarin and FEI predict will win the games, and the confidence ranks represent the picks about which each metric is "most confident," i.e. the biggest difference between the two teams, with higher numbers indicating more confidence. I then added the two confidence rankings up, which provides the following results. There were a few games where Sagarin and FEI's predictions did not line up - those should be some of the more closely contested games. Good luck in your bowl pools and happy holidays.
|Pinstripe||12/28/2013||Notre Dame||35||Notre Dame||35||70||0|
|Holiday||12/30/2013||Arizona State||33||Arizona State||33||66||0|
|Beef 'O' Brady's||12/23/2013||East Carolina||28||East Carolina||34||62||0|
|GoDaddy||1/5/2014||Ball State||27||Ball State||31||58||0|
|Las Vegas||12/21/2013||Southern California||26||Southern California||26||52||0|
|Heart of Dallas||1/1/2014||North Texas||16||North Texas||30||46||0|
|BCS Championship||1/6/2014||Florida State||34||Florida State||12||46||0|
|New Mexico||12/21/2013||Washington State||32||Washington State||9||41||0|
|Little Caesars||12/26/2013||Bowling Green||17||Bowling Green||16||33||0|
|Chick-fil-A||12/31/2013||Texas A&M||20||Texas A&M||13||33||0|
|Orange||1/3/2014||Ohio State||5||Ohio State||23||28||0|
|Liberty||12/31/2013||Mississippi State||15||Mississippi State||10||25||0|
|Belk||12/28/2013||North Carolina||11||North Carolina||4||15||0|
|Capital One||1/1/2014||Wisconsin||8||South Carolina||5||13||1|
|Hawaii||12/24/2013||Oregon State||10||Boise State||3||13||1|
|Music City||12/30/2013||Georgia Tech||2||Mississippi||8||10||1|
|Buffalo Wild Wings||12/28/2013||Kansas State||9||PUSH||1||10||1|
|Poinsettia||12/26/2013||Utah State||3||Utah State||6||9||0|
* I will admit that I am not 100% confident in the interpretation of FEI here. I have not yet been able to find a good explanation of what this represents beyond the standard explanation that Brian Fremeau provides on his website, "...the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured." If you have a statistical-minded explanation, I'd be very interested to hear it.
ESPN has listed Phil Steele's 2013 Big 10 bowl predictions here:
Surprisingly, that is to say not surprisingly, Steele is bullish on OSU (predicting they will play for it all against Bama) and bearish on UM (predicting we will play Ole Miss in the Gator). Well, I guess the good news is that we will get to pound on the Rebs and show Treadwell what a big mistake he made buying into Freeze's BS.
Michigan will face South Carolina in the Outback bowl per their official website. Should be some fun quotes from the OBC