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big ten basketball
College basketball starts in earnest this week with a series of early-season holiday tournaments, where some Big Ten teams will face their staunchest tests so far this season. The destinations – Maui, NYC, Cancun, the Bahamas, Vegas – add an element of quirkiness that is singular to college basketball; fanbases from various corners of the country get to watch their teams play a few games in a unique environment over the span of a few days. It serves multiple purposes: teams get to go on vacation, often add quality opponents to their non-conference schedule, and practice quick turnarounds that they’ll later see in conference tournaments (and possibly the NCAA Tournament).
This week’s ten:
- First-round opponents
- Projecting second- and third-round opponents
- Five possible games I’d love to see
- James Blackmon, Jr. to the rescue
- Indiana wins a battle of extremes against SMU
- Tough opponents and expected losses
- Somebody rushes the court against Nebraska
- Penn State (barely) goes 2-1 in Charleston
- Chucker Watch
- Saluting Shannon Scott
* * *
1. First-round opponents
In an (admittedly arbitrary) order from most- to least-intriguing games. Rankings are via kenpom.com from late Sunday night.
- 17. Michigan vs. 30. Oregon (11-24, 9:30, ESPN3)
- 26. Maryland vs. 68. Arizona St. (11-24, 7:00, ESPNU)
- 38. Purdue vs. 55. Kansas St. (11-24, 2:30, ESPN2)
- 34. Minnesota vs. 47. St. John’s (11-26, 7:00, ESPNU)
- 40. Illinois vs. 144. Indiana St. (11-28, 5:00, FS1)
- 128. Rutgers vs. 86 Vanderbilt (11-28, 7:00, NBCSN)
- 101. Northwestern vs. 248 Miami (OH) (11-25, 9:30, CBSSN)
- 4. Wisconsin vs. 203. UAB (11-26, 7:00, AXS.tv)
- 14. Michigan St. vs. 198. Rider (11-28, 6:30, ESPN2)
Monday features some of the best early matchups, as Michigan, Maryland, and Purdue each face their first real tests of the season. The Boilermakers face former Illinois coach, Bruce Weber, and Kansas State to kick off the Maui invitational: the Wildcats are coming off of an upset loss at Long Beach State. Maryland draws Arizona St.; neither team has been seriously tested by weak schedules thus far and both teams are featuring plenty of new faces all over the court. Michigan plays the late game against Oregon – a team that’s replacing nearly everyone from last season.
2. Projecting second- and third-round opponents
By using Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean value for each of the teams in a log5 simulation, I found the probability that a given team would face a certain opponent in the second and third rounds of their tournaments.
3. Five possible games I’d love to see
- Michigan St. vs. Kansas – Even though this matchup would likely require both teams to win their first two games, there’s still a very good chance due to the overall weakness of the rest of the field (outside of perhaps Tennessee). Both teams lost in the Champions Classic this past week – MSU fell to Duke and Kansas was obliterated by Kentucky – and could use an early-season win over a blue-blood as a morale boost.
- Wisconsin vs. Florida – Wisconsin will almost certainly beat UAB, so a favored Florida team needs to beat Georgetown. This would be the third meeting in the past three years between the Badgers and the Gators: in the 2012 season, Florida ran Wisconsin out of the gym in Gainesville and Wisconsin replied with the boa-constrictor treatment on the return trip. This would be Wisconsin’s first big challenge of the young season.
- Michigan vs. Villanova – Regardless of the first-round outcomes in the Legends Classic, Michigan will find itself facing a formidable opponent the night after a contest with Oregon. Villanova gets the slight nod as a preferable opponent here because Michigan recently faced VCU (and the superb 2012 team dominated) and because Villanova lost just four games last year – two of which came in the form of blowouts at the hands of Creighton, a three-point happy team like Michigan.
- Illinois vs. Baylor – I’m high on the Illini and a matchup between backcourt transfers Ahmad Starks and Aaron Cosby against Baylor’s diminutive guard tandem would be fun. Illinois would need to prove that its presumably resurgent three-point shooting can hold up against Baylor’s bizarre sort of matchup zone that only makes sense to Scott Drew. Illinois would get open looks, and we’d see if they can hit them. Plus we get a rematch of this game.
- Purdue vs. Arizona – If nothing else, this would be an excellent measuring stick for A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas; Purdue’s big men – particularly the frustrating and inconsistent Hammons – could have a great chance to prove themselves against one of the nastiest frontcourts in college basketball. A loss here would be expected (and not at all harmful), while a win would be the type of resume-builder that could propel the Boilermakers into the tournament come March.
[AFTER THE JUMP: running down the week that was in the Big Ten]
Me: Coach Izzo, do you think big-ten-regular-season scheduling is much different now with Nebraska in the conference than it was before?
Izzo: "'Everything has changed so much,' coach Tom Izzo said. ""
Me: "Changed so much"? Really coach? I see that since at least as early as the 1998-1999 season, a big ten team would often avoid playing twice against at least two teams each. What do you think about the effects of having to not play every team each twice?
Izzo: "'There's been seasons we've either won or lost strictly on schedule,' Izzo said. 'If it's really erratic -- playing the top four twice and the bottom four once -- that could be a four- to six-game swing. And who you play on the road (means) a lot. I think the champion a lot of times is now determined by the schedule.'"
Me: You say the champion is "now determined by the schedule"? Doesn't logic suggest that that must have been the case as far back as 1998 then?
Me: So you're saying that at least some of the big ten titles MSU won since 1998 were not based on merit?
Me: Do you think you'd make the same argument if your team were today alone in first place in the big ten conference?
Dantonio (surprise appearance): "'OK, here's what we're going to do,' Dantonio said. 'We're going to get other people up here. We're going to talk about more than [scheduling].
'How many guys got a guy that's [knowledgeable on big ten scheduling]?' Dantonio asked . . . . After a couple raised their hands, Dantonio said: 'One, two -- so the two guys can go back there in the corner and talk about that. All of us right here, we're going to talk about [excuses for losing] for everybody. Let's go.'"
sources (disclaimer: one link is to a free press article; please avoid clicking to it if possible): http://www.freep.com/article/20120201/SPORTS07/202010433/Big-Ten-schedule-imbalance-irks-Michigan-State-s-Tom-Izzo
Oh how the tide has turned for Indiana. What does mean for the B1G in general? Is the B1G beating up on itself hurting us? Is this good or bad for us(since we lost to IU), or WHO CARES 3 IN A ROW VS SPARTY!!?
This article talks about the new basketball facility. The fact that it will be completed soon is not so much news, however I thought the quotes from Coach B were new and also encouraging enough to post here. Anyone in the community still have doubts about whether he's the right coach long-term for Michigan?
"When Michigan had to re-tool in many ways back in the mid-90s, they had to go in different directions and do some different things. At that time, Wisconsin popped up. Other teams started re-doing facilities. It wasn't like everybody else said, 'Oh, hey, Michigan wants to come back -- it's their turn. That's not happening. … We need to continue to establish a culture that breeds winning and a championship attitude." " I know we're moving in the right direction, but I don't doubt for a second that every other program out there isn't doing the exact same thing,” Beilein said. “There's 12 of us in the league, and to get to the NCAA Tournament and get that consistency, half of us will make it and half of us won't. "Which half are we going to be? That's how we have to approach it."
So with recent wins by Northwestern and Minnesota, there is the possibility that FIVE teams in the Big Ten will finish 9-9 in the conference. Each of these five teams has one game left in regular conference play. This will happen if:
- Michigan beats Minnesota
- Northwestern beats OSU
- Indiana beats Wisconsin
Obviously, the last one (Indiana over Wisconsin) is really unlikely to happen. But still, we could easily have Michigan, Minnesota, OSU and Northwestern all at 9-9. I know this affects seedings for the Big Ten Tournament, but can anyone hazard a guess at what the implications are for the NCAA tourney?
The good thing is that, if this scenario (four teams at 9-9) occurs, Michigan will have a head-to-head advantage over Northwestern and Minnesota (but not OSU). The bad thing is that, even if this happens, Michigan will still place 7th in the conference, not counting the Big Ten Tournament of course.
Apparently, the Big Ten is morphing into a high school basketball league:
Penn State 38, Illinois 33
Normally, I find that people who speak out about the weakness of Big Ten basketball to be stupid considering the number of final four teams we've produced over the last decade (9), which beats the Big 12 (6), the Big East (4, 6 if you count appearances by C-USA teams that have since defected), the Pac-10 (4), and the SEC (4), tying the ACC (9) for first. However, this is just ridiculous.