he grew a beard
The B1G went a respectable 7-5 ATS last weekend; while Michigan did not obviously fare as well. Wisconsin is the only team left with a perfect record ATS.
|Michigan||-31.5||59-9 (CMU)||+18.5||-5||41-30 (ND)||+6||-37||28-24 (Akron)||-33|
|Ohio||-34||40-20 (Buff)||-14||-28||42-7 (SDSU)||+7||-13.5||52-34 (@Cal)||+4.5|
|Michigan St||-28||26-13 (WMU)||-15||-21.5||21-6 (USF)||-6.5||-23||55-17 (Young St)||+15|
|Indiana||-25||73-35 (Ind St)||+13||-12.5||35-41 (Navy)||-18.5||-2.5||42-10 (BGSU)||+29.5|
|Illinois||-17||42-34 (So Ill)||-9||+8||45-17 (Cinci)||+36||+10.5||24-34 (Wash)||+0.5|
|Northwestern||-6.5||44-30 (@Cal)||+7.5||-17||48-27 (Syr)||+4||-28||38-17 (WMU)||-7|
|Penn State||-8||23-17 (Syr)||-2||-28||45-7 (EMU)||+10||-4.5||31-34 (UCF)||-7.5|
|Nebraska||-31||37-34 (Wyo)||-28||-28||56-13 (S Miss)||+15||-1.5||21-41 (UCLA)||-21.5|
|Iowa||-3||27-30 (N Ill)||-6||-26||28-14 (Misso St)||-12||-1||27-21 (@Iowa St)||+5|
|Wisconsin||-44||45-0 (UMass)||+1||-45||48-0 (Tenn Tech)||+3||+7||30-32 (@AZ St)||+5|
|Purdue||+10.5||7-42 (Cinci)||-24.5||-17||20-14 (Ind St)||-11||+17||31-24 (ND)||+10|
|Minnesota||-13.5||51-23 (UNLV)||+14.5||-16||44-21 (N Mex St)||+7||-27.5||29-12 (W Ill)||-10.5|
Penn State is the big mover; the line has increased 7 points since the open. Indiana opened as the underdog, but the market has determined that game is a toss-up. We have our first B1G match-up with Purdue @ Wisconsin. Of course with a current spread 23.5 it doesn't really set off fireworks for the start of league play. Can Michigan recover and win by 3 TD's? They may be able to cover that O by themselves.
|Penn State||-14||-21||54||Kent St|
If MCalibur, or anyone else, has the missing O/U I'll update them as they come in.
Not sure how well received this will be but right now BYU is the underdog in their matchup with Gonzaga tomorrow. I don't think I've ever seen an 11 seed be favored in an 11-3 matchup. I realize Gonzaga has played well recently but all their wins in the regular season were against joke teams. I'm trying to figure out if the Big East was just vastly overrated, st. johns had a poor showing yesterday or if its actually possible that the Zags should be favored tomorrow. At +110 for BYU I feel confident betting on that game. Thoughts?
Betting is wrong ...OK now we have games tonight and "just for fun" lets talk about what we think about the Vegas odds
Kansas +5.5 vs Southern Miss
Cal -3 vs Nevada
I like Cal giving the FG .. and id like to find a Saturday game to tease with in order to get Kansas +11 .. anybody got any feelings ?
So, do any mgogamblers out there use accuscore or other computer program to bet? Accuscore looks pretty detailed, and from what I remember from last years NFL season, it was more accurate in predicting the outcome of games than the panel of experts. I want to say it was around 75%.
Does anyone use this or a similar program to bet? Is it actually profitable to do so?
Here's the question: Assume MSU makes it past Maryland (not a foregone conclusion at all.) Nonetheless, if MSU plays UNI, who do you root for? The right choice (and only choice, as far as I'm concerned) is for UNI to win.
But . . . a complicating factor: brackets, and money riding on the tourney. If MSU winning BENEFITS you financially, and UNI winning causes you to lose money, who do you root for?
I suppose the choice is still easy if you only have $10 or $20 in an office pool, but what's your price? Is there a point where you swing to the dark side and root for MSU? It's the "Indecent Proposal" question. (would you root for MSU for $1,000,000?)
A week or so ago, I got an e-mail from an MSU alum reminding me that it had been some ridiculous amount of days since UM had beat MSU in basketball or football. (full disclosure: I did call and hum the Victors 4 - 5 years ago after yet another epic Sparty collapse.) Regardless, the last two years factors into the equation for me. While I didn't mind what happend for State last year, I can't stand to see MSU continue to win. I want them to go down, regardless of the money. And after all the App State gloating, who better for them to lose to then UNI?
I have limited amounts of time and knowledge of statistical models, so I am going to trust Jeff that his model is complete and accurate within reason (call me lazy, I prefer efficient with a desire to remain gainfully employed). Sagarin includes a predictor rating, which rates the teams based on all data. Since it is a slow week at work, I took the time to combine the betting lines with the predictor.
The expectation is that the predictor ratings, adjusted for the home field advantage of 3.5 pts, plus or minus the spread should equal zero. I am sure there is a noise factor in there (a threshold for statistical significance) but that is beyond me. I selected the games with the highest absolute difference from zero.
Idaho (predictor = 70.69) at Nevada (net predictor of 69.78) -15, difference = 16.41pts
WSU (59.20) at Cal (net 82.76) -35, difference = 11.44
N Illinois (75.46) - 11at Miami not that Miami (net (55.10). diff = 9.36
Maryland (59.05) at Duke (net 72.28) -4.5. diff = 8.73
Louisville (63.45) at Cinci (net 88.73) -17. diff = 8.28
Vandy (59.55) at S Car (net 80.95) -13.5. diff = 7.90
Games of local interest:
PSU (82.77) -4.5 at UM (net 81.65) diff = 3.38 (significant?)
Iowa (86.00) at MSU (net 81.10) pick 'em. difference of 4.90
There are 17 games with an absolute difference above 5.00. I assume this will get tighter as the games are played.
- I do not have any knowledge of the Sagarin model or its corrections, adjustments etc.
- Home field advantage is a plug number, each team should have its own number.
- I pulled the lines from Yahoo sports, which may or may not be the latest.
- As a CPA, I can add and subtract, all other functions are considered immaterial or buried in a footnote in small print.
- This is for entertainment purposes only and all numbers should be verified.
Results this week:
Tulsa (72.55) -7 at UTEP (net 61.67).The play? Tulsa. The result? Loss.
FSU (78.49) at UNC (net 74.43) -2.5. The play? FSU. The result? Win.
Edit: I have not researched any external factors such as injuries or swine flu.